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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Congressional Elections => Topic started by: TDAS04 on December 08, 2019, 11:36:16 am



Title: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: TDAS04 on December 08, 2019, 11:36:16 am
After the 2020 elections?


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Roll Roons on December 08, 2019, 11:58:42 am
As of now I wouldn't bet on it. Jones is obviously a significant underdog and the Dem candidates in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas don't seem that strong. But it's still almost a year out, and things could change.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Councilor Gracile on December 08, 2019, 12:15:26 pm
I'll say no at the moment, but NC/GA/TX are definitely worth keeping an eye on.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on December 08, 2019, 12:41:26 pm
NC probably will flip


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Oregon Blue Dog on December 08, 2019, 01:12:47 pm
Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 08, 2019, 01:47:15 pm
Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).

Too high, especially when you see who are the democrats who are running in these races


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 08, 2019, 01:50:31 pm
I would say ''no'' at the moment, AL will likely flip back to republicans but there is at the same time a 30% to 35% chance that they lose NC, so it's not a definite ''no''


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With The Rocky Jones Family on December 08, 2019, 02:02:18 pm
I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on December 08, 2019, 02:12:51 pm
If a Democrat wins the Presidency I would say thereís a >50% chance that Democrats won at least one of NC or GA in the Senate races. If Trump wins re-election, probably not.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Xing on December 08, 2019, 02:20:32 pm
Their best chance is in NC, followed by the two GA seats. Right now itís more likely than not that there wonít be, but Iíd say thereís certainly a chance.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 08, 2019, 06:48:26 pm
Good question. Jones is an underdog (but not DOA) regardless of what happens in the presidential race, but even (especially?) if Trump wins reelection, I could see them losing a GA runoff because just enough Republicans stay home and Democrats turn out like for those special elections. If Trump loses reelection, Tillis might go down too.

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Forumlurker161 on December 08, 2019, 06:53:46 pm
No, but some seats would flip in 2022 Assuming we donít become a de facto dictatorship


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 08, 2019, 08:01:58 pm
Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: President Pericles on December 08, 2019, 09:04:01 pm
They probably have at least a 1/5 or 1/4 chance in four races-the two Georgia races, Texas and North Carolina (this one being a pure tossup), and a very slight chance in Alabama. The odds of getting 1 of these 5 races are probably over 50% (even with the outcomes are correlated), despite Democrats not being clear favorites in any races. So my answer is yes.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 09, 2019, 01:57:47 am
I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.

How on God's green earth?


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 09, 2019, 02:36:18 am
Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 09, 2019, 02:48:37 am
I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.

How on God's green earth?

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 09, 2019, 03:10:47 am
Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. :P But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: President Pericles on December 09, 2019, 04:05:19 am
Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Tbh I agree with you there, Moore's chances are very small, but it is typical Atlas to think he has a significant chance.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Cory Booker on December 09, 2019, 05:10:36 am
There wont be any Rs representatives representing New England. Of course there will, the Senate impeachment trial will move to the Senate, and the R Senators up for reelection will be vulnerable like Tillis, McSally, Ernst and Collins.

As I said before, the election map that looks like today  will look different than what it does tomorrow


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 09, 2019, 09:10:11 am
Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. :P But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

Well, I didn't include Kander and Orman because they didn't win (even if they clearly won a good amount of Trump voters) ; but yeah I agree with your broader point, it's really sad that so many republican voters are gullible enough to fall again and again in the ''moderate democrat'' trap.

I can eventually understand Trump/Manchin or Trump/Edwards voters, but Trump/Brown and Trump/Tester voters are really schizophrenic


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: UncleSam on December 09, 2019, 01:18:29 pm
Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).
Senate races are not independent outcomes. Even if your ascribed probabilities are reflective of reality, this approach to calculating an overall probability of at least one flipping (or Alabama not flipping) is not valid. The actual chance, given these individual chances, is probably closer to a coin toss.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Yellowhammer on December 09, 2019, 01:50:58 pm
Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.  

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Anyone who thinks Moore will win the primary at this point is stupid.

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. :P But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

you mean he will have a 0.01% chance instead of a 0.001% chance?

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

This is flat-out dumb.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 09, 2019, 04:28:11 pm
Good question. Jones is an underdog (but not DOA) regardless of what happens in the presidential race, but even (especially?) if Trump wins reelection, I could see them losing a GA runoff because just enough Republicans stay home and Democrats turn out like for those special elections. If Trump loses reelection, Tillis might go down too.

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 09, 2019, 04:47:46 pm
Quote
Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?

Yeah, how could Democrats possibly find another 50k votes in Georgia of all places between 2018 and 2022? Literally impossible, even in another Democratic wave. At best they lose by 0.1264579%.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 09, 2019, 09:22:17 pm
Quote
Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?

Yeah, how could Democrats possibly find another 50k votes in Georgia of all places between 2018 and 2022? Literally impossible, even in another Democratic wave. At best they lose by 0.1264579%.

It's not impossible. But it's super dumb to say it's inevitable, or that Republicans have no way in hell of holding it.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: MT Treasurer on December 10, 2019, 01:49:47 am
It's not impossible. But it's super dumb to say it's inevitable, or that Republicans have no way in hell of holding it.

I went a little too far there, but Democrats would almost certainly be favored to win the seat, even if only slightly. Either way, Iím not sure someone who thinks NV is Tilt R in 2020 (a super dumb prediction) and that AZ/GA voted/will vote "10 points to the right of WI" (a super dumb statement) should be one to call other people's predictions dumb.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 10, 2019, 02:05:52 am
It's not impossible. But it's super dumb to say it's inevitable, or that Republicans have no way in hell of holding it.

I went a little too far there, but Democrats would almost certainly be favored to win the seat, even if only slightly. Either way, Iím not sure someone who thinks NV is Tilt R in 2020 (a super dumb prediction) and that AZ/GA voted/will vote "10 points to the right of WI" (a super dumb statement) should be one to call other people's predictions dumb.

I never said they will. I said they did, and that we should pay attention to election results > feelings. And Tilt R Nevada is a clear exaggeration yeah, but it's nothing compared to the BS solid D Nevada narrative being perpetuated by some users here.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: jimmie on December 10, 2019, 05:38:45 am
It's not impossible. But it's super dumb to say it's inevitable, or that Republicans have no way in hell of holding it.

I went a little too far there, but Democrats would almost certainly be favored to win the seat, even if only slightly. Either way, Iím not sure someone who thinks NV is Tilt R in 2020 (a super dumb prediction) and that AZ/GA voted/will vote "10 points to the right of WI" (a super dumb statement) should be one to call other people's predictions dumb.

I never said they will. I said they did, and that we should pay attention to election results > feelings. And Tilt R Nevada is a clear exaggeration yeah, but it's nothing compared to the BS solid D Nevada narrative being perpetuated by some users here.

Nevada had multiple close statewide races (State Treasurer, Secretary of State and Attorney General) in the midterm elections and was right on the national average in the 2016 elections. I do not know about you all but I do consider it a highly competitive state but it is challenging finding the last few votes for the GOP to win there.

Heller lost by a solid but competitive margin. But let's all remember he won in 2012 over this person:

()

But overall Clark County is just too dominant and Washoe County is too unreliable for the GOP for the Republicans to have many outright victories in Nevada.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Alienated Social Democrat on December 10, 2019, 09:17:32 am
Leaning towards yes, because it seems more likelier than not aggregated that one of them will flip. I give it a 50%.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Cory Booker on December 10, 2019, 09:21:46 am
Yes, winning NC, with Cooper on ballot, but Ds can win Senate with CO and ME and winning a combo of AZ, AL, KS, GA or NC


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Tekken_Guy on December 10, 2019, 09:27:44 am
Yes, winning NC, with Cooper on ballot, but Ds can win Senate with CO and AZ and winning a combo of ME, AL, KS, GA or NC


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: Dirty Dan on December 10, 2019, 02:46:02 pm
If Democrats have another disappointing (Trump wins and maybe gains a little in the senate) or downright disastrous (Democrats are again completely swept out of power) 2020, 2021 will be remembered as the high water mark of the Southern GOP.


Title: Re: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
Post by: RINO Tom on December 10, 2019, 03:07:39 pm
Granpappy is spinning in his grave, haha: "The Confederacy, sans its capital!"