Talk Elections

Reading up and talking to folks I know and Corbyn/sanders are very similar in their political beliefs.

Momentum (labor group) are very similar to the young Turks/justice democrats where injustice, poverty, the whole system is corrupt and must be fixed with radical public investment similar to Sanders.

Johnson and Trump very similar in style lots of bluster but no details around policy. The media all think The countries will reject socialism but in 2015 the UK saw huge surges in urban areas reinforcing socialism in urban areas but a hard rejection in rural small towns.

No, if only for the fact that Sanders is ten times more appealing than Corbyn.

Don’t think so. One of those leaders will almost certainly be out of a job within a week, and their replacement will lead to a shift in the tenor of uk politics, and the Overton window moves.

By the time the DNC and RNC are held, the UK opposition will likely be led by an entirely different team, and the political environment will be in a different phase. Probably still arguing over Scotland and Brexit though.

The online progressive shows like Michael Brooks, Kyle Kulinaki David pakman are big supporters of Corbyn and say he’s similar to sanders.

Corbyn voted against the Iraq war, always spoken out on issues of poverty, union rights, Palestine rights, rebels against the party etc.

I can’t imagine anybody further to the left than Bernie Sanders.

It's not anywhere nearly as equivalent as it may seem on the surface.

No, for countless reasons. The political situations in the UK and the US are dramatically different, with UK politics and coalitions being far more fluid. Additionally, you don't have a parliamentary system and major third parties that make things far more variable.

Then there is the simple factor of Trump being infinitely dumber than Boris Johnson. Trump is a lucky dummy who got into office after a perfect storm of events. Boris Johnson is an intelligent political operator who intentionally presents a shaggy persona to manipulate voters and the media, and evidently, he's very good at it.

Also Bernie comes off as much more "likable" and charismatic than Corbyn.

If the Tories don't form a government, I could see Boris staying on as Leader of the Opposition, especially in an unstable hung parliament. He clearly boosted their support a lot and pretty much all the conceivable alternatives would have done worse. Then again, this is suspiciously similar to the logic for keeping Corbyn on as leader after the 2017 election.

Corbyn's approval ratings haven't gone over 30% this entire year. His favorability hovers in the 20s. Bernie's is easily twice that and then some. Corbyn's policies are actually (democratic?) socialist for the most part; Bernie's policies are much closer to those of a social democrat.

Even if you didn't look at this; the political situations are entirely different. I don't think Corbyn winning means Sanders would have a better shot at winning or vice versa with Johnson.

the political situations in the us and uk are not directly comparable, but they aren't useless. brexit was in some ways a bellwether for 2016. that being said the political situation in britain rn is nothing like it is here, and the us-uk situation was far more similar 3 years ago.

The UK media is much friendlier to Johnson than the US media is to Trump. Also, Brexit is a huge issue in this UK election.

Yes, obviously. Trump’s emphasis on Amexit, along with the troubling anti-Semitic history of Bernard Sanders of Brooklyn, means we will see the exact same outcome.

I think people are underestimating their similarity. Insofar as there is a question of whether or not a hard left winger a la Sanders or Corbyn can both hold suburban/wealthy voters (the type who voted Dem in the 2018 midterns/against Brexit) or possess some sort of special strength with working class voters (Rust Belt WWC/Northern Red wall), it does seem likely to be a pretty good test, and I'm interested to see how it goes. Certainly, I think it's looking a lot thus far like they underperform with both your NJ-07/City-of-London-Westminister voter and with your average Monroe/Wrexham voter, which isn't a good omen for their chances.

In 2017, there were huge swings to the left in many of those suburban seats. Maybe not due to Corbyn, but he wasn't a big liability there. And I bet in most of these types of constituencies, the 2019 result will be better for Labour than the 2015 result before Corbyn was leader (even if there is a swing away from Labour compared to 2017, when Corbyn was also leader). So by this logic, Bernie will do better than Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, and it's just a question of the degree of the overperformance.

Comparing 2015 Britain is like 2012 Mitt Romney. The better analogy is Brexit - Trump, 2017 - 2018, and 2019 - 2020. I'm interested to see how it'll go.

Then you don't have much imagination.

No, Sanders and Corbyn *do* both espouses left-wing populism on socioeconomic issues and polling suggests that many of their signature issues such as reversing austerity, nationalization and/or single-payer are popular. However, Corbyn and Sanders diverge on their foreign policy stances and (hence) their public perceptions. Sanders is fundamentally a social liberal and progressive on Foreign Policy issues but not outside the Democratic Party mainstream-he voted to send US troops to Afghanistan after 9/11 even as he opposed the subsequent adventure in Iraq and remains a critical left-Zionist with regards to Israel. Republicans and even some centrist Democrats will rail against his foreign policy views as too dovish or isolationist but fundamentally they are not that far from the party mainstream and he would largely maintain American interests and alliances albeit reoriented in a more humanitarian direction. Here, Corbyn is clearly distinct given his history of far more radical opposition to the State of Israel itself and his willingness to meet with members of such groups as the IRA and Hezbollah. Not only are these stances radical in and of themselves, but it builds the image that Corbyn is not merely a left-winger but some sort of a fanatic fundamentally opposed to the British state and values. In this, Corbyn is more comparable to (say) how McGovern was perceived in 1972. It is this perception of cultural and anti-national radicalism that is the Achilles Heel of left-wing candidates, be it McGovern, Foot, or Corbyn.

No, May was the Trump of Britain's political climate, her party was in for a landslide defeat; consequently,  that's why she resigned. Trump would save his party from a landslide if he resigned and put Pence in

The main reason why Labour will lose seats is because of Labour LibDem Voters and LabourBrexit voters.

When compared to Corbyn Sanders is your generic Europen social democrat.

No. Corbyn is even more firmly to the left than Sanders, and not as charismatic. Brexit is a bigger puzzle than Trump - trickier ground which Corbyn has not navigated as skillfully as he might have been able to. Sanders doesn't have that to contend directly with and would be in a stronger position against Trump than Corbyn is against Johnson.

I'd still like to see Labour win - but I feel like the best that can be realistically hoped for is another hung parliament with the Conservatives denied a majority. It may take another few years before Britain is so sick of the tories and Brexit that they vote in Labour. It will happen one day - I just don't know if Corbyn will still be Labour leader when it does.

The only thing that might spell permanent disaster for Labour is if a no-deal Brexit happens, and it precipitates Scottish independence.

I'm sure Dem donors are nervously lining up for Biden now, or will be soon.

Yes, and it's why this country (most countries, actually) need an ACTUAL revolution, not a metaphorical one.

Looks like the days of Tony Blair and big Labour majorities are gone for a long time to come, if ever. 

Nah. Sanders and Warren aren't radioactively unpopular.

Smartest man on Atlas right here. It's a shame we'll never have an American Corbyn.

Labour is projected to have only 191 seats-the lowest in like 70 years.

Not specifically about Sanders, but still an important point:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1205317392932446208

Sanders doesn’t have a -40 net approval rating, nor would his own party’s electorate be as fractured on anything like Brexit.

So no, there is not a comparison to be made.

Sanders can't as easily be smeared as an anti-Semite (though the psychopath Netanyahu had the audacity to refer to Emmanuel and Axelrod as self hating Jews, so you never know).

Johnson didn’t threaten to withhold foreign aid unless that country’s President investigated Corbyn’s son.

There is one thing that ought to sober up Sanders supporters after last night's election.
The claim that economic populism will bring back to the fold those WWC voters who voted for Trump has been irrevocably refuted.
Corbyn proposed the most left-wing economic agenda in a generation that would have benefited the most exactly this kind of people. And yet they rejected him decisively.
For them Brexit and xenophobia were more important that their own pocketbook.

So let's stop the BS that M4A and breaking the big banks will make West Virginia and Arkansas lean D.

Sanders is nowhere near as unpopular and problematic as Jeremy Corbyn is. So no.

Nobody could ever accuse Bernie Sanders of antisemitism.

Congratulations Boris Johnson!!! Finally Brexit can get done, and the UK can put the referendum behind them. Should be a good thing for trade talks with the US as well. Trump must be cheering in the white house as well.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/12/uk-general-election-2019-full-results-live-labour-conservatives-tories (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/dec/12/uk-general-election-2019-full-results-live-labour-conservatives-tories)

Bojo has a long history of criticizing and publicly speaking against Trump. UK Conservatives are more akin to US moderate Democrats, Johnson ran a campaign on expanding public services. Lmao at all the Trump supporters cheering his win.

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These men would like to disagree with you.

EDIT: on the point at hand, I do think there's a chance Sanders' Democratic opponents (or, really, their proxies...no candidate is going to say this out loud) are going to use this as a club against him on the electability argument. I think that's more important than any predictive value of the contest.

In terms of Sanders' personal ability to win a GE? No. He's not as unpopular as Corbyn.

In terms of the notion that there's this hidden far-left majority in places like West Virginia that can be activated for systemic change to support a "revolution"? Absolutely.

I agree on the global idea that UK Conservatives are to the left of the GOP, but they're probably to the right of most democrats, let's say they are ''Kasich Republicans''

He's not even really Jewish, he's an atheist.

No. Stop trying to force American Politics into everything.

So was David Ben-Gurion.

Has he ever said as much?

Beyond that though, according to the Trump administration, Jews can be atheists.

David Ben-Gurion didn't hang out with Linda Sarsour.

Could be.

I’ve never seen Kasich or any of the moderate Republicans call for expanding public programs like Boris Johnson did. Perhaps you could compare them to Phil Scott or Charlie Baker if any Republican. This whole counter-narrative that the U.S is actually in the mainstream on the developed world political debate seems more contrarian than anything, or Republicans reaching for straws. The political landscape of the UK is much different than the US.

Jewish identity can also be based on ethnicity.

Lol yes and Atlas and Sandernites can pretend it isnt as much as they want.

Who actually said this?

the UK election results having any impact whatsoever on the US election results is even more unimaginable than being further left wing than Bernie Sanders

Well a professor of politics in the uk was talking about Arkansas and West Virginia’s collapse and dramatics shift from democrats to republicans today and comparing it to what happened in labor heartlands that voted labor for over a century

So he thinks that republicans have become economically very liberal - big spending, high debt but culturally conservative. While the democrats have become economically conservative and socially liberal. So stuff on immigration - open borders, defending immigrants, human rights has been a total disaster with poor working class people who feel like they have no rights anyway and the system is rigged and life is sh**t so they vote republican in protest. Talking about guns, religion is a smokescreen for the unavoidable fact that democrats care more about immigrants who don’t live here but enter illegally compared to people born here. Interesting theory

Sanders would never be able to defeat joe manchin in West Virginia.

No, but that doesn't mean Sanders is particularly electable.

This.
You won't believe how many Sandernistas genuinely believe that Sanders will make West Virginia and Oklahoma competitive because "populism" and "he won the primary there in a landslide".

Dems are un denial that their party is in trouble

This, I've had this discussion with people outside of atlas as well.

TWO DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. Is this type of American-centric attitude that makes so many people have a natural dislike for the country.

I also 100% agree with Barron, Boris (and most Tories aside from the obvious: Mogg, Gove, Cornerstone group) would be a Democrat in the US no question about it. Find me a Kasich Republican who supports expanding public services, or who would preserve any system resembling the NHS, Boris may be hurting the NHS, but a "Kasich Republican's" ideals would see it torn to dust.

Don't let the hair fool you, Boris isn't really this country's Trump. Honestly that sort of analysis is worse than in 2008 when every single young politician with a vaguely inspiring speaking voice (and often not even that) was labeled COUNTRY X's OBAMA?!?!

LOL. Kasich expanded public services, have you already forgotten he basically expanded medicaid ?

That's a low standard.

Did....did you just compare Medicaid to the NHS?

No, the comparison is silly, Teresa May was the corrupt PM, not Boris, and she was removed by her own party. The British are more conservative than Americans, due to fact, Arabs and Africans are the immigrants in Europe, not Latinos, like in the US. The right trying to conflate the two, is probable, but not imminent

Not me, but it's a good analogy. They hold a similar place politically (much as I'd like to abolish the second one and cut the first one).

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The place they hold politically is
A. Still Different, considering that even Tories shiver to call for its abolition whereas Republicans like to talk about "reforming" Medicaid to a nonexistent point daily
B. Irrelevant to the fact that the two systems only share a similarity in that they are healthcare related, they are vastly different

A. That's a good point, but it also compounds the liberalness of Kasich in expanding it. (On a personal note, Kasich really pulled a RINO on that one, I liked him before that).

B. We're talking about politics here though, not policy.

The point is that the Overton window in the UK is shifted so much to the left that, in context of U.S politics, Boris would resemble a Democrat, albeit a more moderate and conservative one. The NHS and Medicaid are incomparable on policy.