|
Title: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on December 09, 2019, 02:10:11 PM This district has a PVI of R+13. Currently represented by Democrat Ben McAdams, UT-04 consists of a portion of Salt Lake City in addition to a strip south of SLC. In 2012, Romney won this district by 40%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 14%.
Republican challengers include Kathleen Anderson, Kim Coleman, and Daniel Hemmert. Recent Results 2018: D +0.3 2016: R +12.5 2014: R +3.3 2012: D +0.3 Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: We Live in Black and White on December 09, 2019, 02:15:55 PM Tilt D and the likeliest hold of all of our red districts. I was on the ground here and people wildly underestimate how quickly SLC is rocketing left.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Gracile on December 09, 2019, 02:23:21 PM Tossup/Tilt D. I can see McAdams benefiting a lot from Trump’s relative unpopularity with Mormons, and this seat’s tendency to vote for Democrats in his mold. I actually think he will be the vulnerable incumbent that will outrun the Democratic presidential candidate the most.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: 😥 on December 09, 2019, 02:29:51 PM Lean D. The least likely red district, represented by Democrat, to flip
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Xing on December 09, 2019, 02:45:26 PM Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 09, 2019, 03:22:36 PM Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: We Live in Black and White on December 09, 2019, 03:23:06 PM Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic. Yeah, SLC generally becoming vast miles more blue, something which was happening even without the influence of Trump but which has been accelerated by his presidency. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: SnowLabrador on December 09, 2019, 03:28:51 PM Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: MT Treasurer on December 09, 2019, 03:33:01 PM Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one won’t be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isn’t going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district that’s only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Tintrlvr on December 09, 2019, 03:34:41 PM Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018. We certainly don't know yet whether there will be an Evan McMullin on the ballot or not. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 09, 2019, 03:52:59 PM Lean D
Trump is not a great shape with mormons and McAdams is probably favoured as a ''check and balance'' on Trump Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Calthrina950 on December 09, 2019, 07:38:57 PM Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one won’t be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isn’t going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district that’s only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward. Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Roblox on December 09, 2019, 07:43:03 PM Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one won’t be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isn’t going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district that’s only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward. Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide. Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: lfromnj on December 09, 2019, 08:27:53 PM Anyway I think the best numbers to expect in Utah are probably 08 Mccain numbers.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: jamestroll on December 09, 2019, 09:07:10 PM Lean Democrat. McAdams wins by 2 to 4%.
Most McMullin voters in Salt Lake County generally are very open to Democrats down the ballot. This district has been weird all decade. 2012: Everyone expected Matheson to lose in the Romney wave. Matheson won. 2014: Everyone expected Love to landslide in the GOP wave but Owens did impressively well. 2016: Everyone expected a close race but Love landslide Owners. 2018: Most expected Love to win but McAdams upsetted. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Libertas Vel Mors on December 09, 2019, 09:24:57 PM Why is everyone acting like this is a SLC only district?
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Calthrina950 on December 09, 2019, 10:35:45 PM Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one won’t be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isn’t going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district that’s only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward. Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide. Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat. This is true. I forgot about Brindisi. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: OBD on December 10, 2019, 01:05:56 PM Tossup/Tilt D. Wonder if the Utah GOP tries to crack SLC even more in 2020, or concedes this district to the Dems. Once Trump is out of office, this seat will probably shift back to it's Republican roots, though.
Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: Tartarus Sauce on December 10, 2019, 01:57:55 PM Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"? It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trump’s going to improve his margin by (and it’s not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trump’s margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave. This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: lfromnj on December 10, 2019, 02:18:57 PM Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"? It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trump’s going to improve his margin by (and it’s not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trump’s margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave. This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator. Uh yes he will improve his margin lol. It has utah county too which is 51% Trump 33% Mcmuffin and17% Clinton. I predict 55% Trump 39% D and the rest 3rd party. This is similar Mccains 2008 numbers which is what I expect. Title: Re: Rate UT-04 for 2020 Post by: TDAS04 on December 10, 2019, 03:55:16 PM Lean D. Closer to tilt than to likely, I guess.
|