Talk Elections

Since the contest has already begun.

Whoever it ends up being, I hope it triggers the SoCon/Wexiteers to the point that they split off & form another party.

What about Rona Ambrose and Lisa Raitt?

I know you aren't a Tory, so this doesn't quite apply to you, but you'd be amazed at how few pundits and Red Tory types realise how precarious the Tory coalition is (and come to think of it, how unpopular fiscon-soclib is). Half the pro life vote leaving, would pretty much ensure the right can't form government.


Jason Kenney and Brad Wall both mentioned Ambrose recently, so I suspect something is in the works there. Someone needs to be the Western/Blue candidate, and she'd fit the part.

Raitt got 3% of the vote in the last leadership race and lost her seat in the election. Classic case of the media loving a candidate and no one else.

As far as factional candidates go, I'm hearing that Right Now is trying to draft Garnett Genius as the socon candidate.

Where else can they go? The Christian Heritage Party?

CHP, PPC, Wexit , some new party one of the pro-life MP's formed... my point really wasn't about the pro life movement specifically though.

A lot of pundits and Red Tories think that liberalizing is a cure all for the Tories without any downsides. If (and this probably won't happen, but hypothetically), a new leader pushed too far in one direction and caused even a marginally bigger schism than Bernier, it would be a huge problem. The portion of the population open to voting for the right in Canada just isn't that big. For every socon, or free marketeer, or whatever vote lost to schism, you would need to win another increasingly difficult to win vote from the left just to break even. Bernier didn't have much of an impact but even if he got 4-5% of the vote, it would have been very difficult for Scheer to win.

Hill Times reports Michael Fortier is seriously considering running.

https://twitter.com/cath_cullen/status/1206616431875547142

MacKay is leaning yes but hasn't made a final decision (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201912/16/01-5254004-direction-du-parti-conservateur-les-principaux-aspirants-viennent-de-lest.php), Ambrose hasn't expressed interest yet but her unilingualism has sparked an ABA movement here in Quebec. Poilievre and Deltell are interested but haven't made a final decision either.

Rumour is Ambrose won't run. But if she did, she'd be the clear front runner right now. Our poll will be out today. :)

Ambrose is considering a possible run, but she's also reflecting on her private life. (https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/rona-ambrose-is-thinking-over-a-tory-leadership-bid-source-1.4733773#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=ck79bXh)

Erin O’Toole would be a great nominee though I hope he is not as milquetoast as Scheer was

Just noticed his name. Geez, what is it with the media and  speculating about old retired pols running? I'm half expecting to see Mike Harris or Jean Charest's names come up in 'who's running' articles.

Screw it, I don't care of he's pushing 90, I'm backing John Crosbie for leader!

Here's our report: https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/12/little-cheer-for-scheer-as-conservatives-ponder-the-next-leader/

Among Tories:
Ambrose: 28
MacKay: 15
Harper: 12
Rempel: 8
Mulroney: 5

Note that 60% of of CONSERVATIVE VOTERS think Doug Ford would be a "terrible" choice for leader and only 4% think he would be an "excellent" choice - so much for that!

You son of a bitch, I'm in!

I will now collect my accolades

Why not have Joe Clark, he's a former Prime Minister and he is a TRUE RED TORY, he would totally wipe the liberals to PC 1993 levels. /s

Huh. I didn’t realize that Charest is only 61.

At this point, why not have Stockwell Day or Kim Campbell running?

The whole notion of Jean Charest as fefderal Tory leader is ludicrous. First of all, to Tory members he is seen as a Liberal and second of all, he was the most unpopular premier in the history of Quebec so its not as if Quebec Tories will want to collectively commit suicide either

Is the trend of terribly unsuitable candidates wanting to run and being feted by the media a uniquely Tory tradition, or do the Liberals and NDP also have this problem?

In the case of the Liberals they found a terribly unsuitable candidate who wanted to run for their leadership who was feted by the media - and he became leader with predictable results. Remember Michael Ignatieff?

Bernier >>>>>

I can think of a lot of puns if John Tory becomes Leader. (He was included in a poll)

I wonder if he would end up as much of a hilarious failure as he was in Ontario :D Not that he would ever get elected - Tory by name, (almost) Liberal by nature.

Charest sounds very interested, and QC isn't very interested in MacKay. (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201912/20/01-5254436-jean-charest-personne-ne-connait-le-canada-comme-moi.php)

Charest might be hobbled by the ongoing UPAC investigation into illegal PLQ financing given the contest rule that bars candidates under police investigation or who may be subject to criminal charges or professional sanction. Rayes would support Charest, and Deltell is strongly considering running. (https://lactualite.com/politique/jean-charest-peut-il-gagner-la-course-au-parti-conservateur/?fbclid=IwAR2IqYAy9BoqLNdiebQzdnFIxXmeEaibWOBQLaOGTvb3Z1OofRQCU_3xomQ)

Wasn't Rayes an Adequiste? Bit of an odd endorsement choice.

Hope we get Ambrose.

He fits in well with the right wing Liberal crowd. Very little difference between him and Ottawa's mayor, Jim Watson, despite having sat on different sides of the aisle in Queen's Park.

Is it usual for leadership elections in Canada to take that long? Certain people here are having fits of the vapours merely because Corbyn intends to remain Labour leader until March ;)

Yes. For comparison Trudeau was elected leader almost 2 years after the 2011 election. Joe Clark was elected leader 18 months after the 1974 election. Jean Chretien's forced retirement announcement and handover were 15 months apart. Quickest turnarounds included Turner, Pearson and Pierre Trudeau, which were all 6 months or less.

That is very different to this country generally! Any possible reasons?

If the party is going to stick to its base of AB and SK, Ambrose does seem to be one of the better and more logical choices. I would say it's important to have a woman leader, although she does seem quite conservative for most urban and a lot of suburban areas the Tories need to win. If she can pull to the centre, Ontario could be for the taking so long as Doug Ford goes down next election.

There's a variety of reasons:

A. It's usually because parties wanna give themselves a breather after an election which they've lost, while also giving their next leader time to make themselves known prior to the the next election.

B. Candidates need time to gauge whether they have enough money, influence, & support before announcing. Indeed, cost is a pretty big issue, as parties have to impose pretty strict spending limits so as to ensure that 1) it's not simply the candidate with the most money who wins, & 2) the process doesn't tap out the party's donor base.

C. Parties prefer to wait & see what issues crystallize around the new government &, thus, what their constituents want of them.

D. There's no rush, in that the Liberals have a pretty solid minority, & that the NDP are broke, so there's no chance that they'll be bringing down the government, meaning an election won't be happening for a good while.

As with so many things, we like to be a mix of the UK and the US. In this case Parliamentary democracy and the long length of leadership campaigns. Watching how long presidential primaries are in the US, we don't really see our leadership elections as being excessively long in contrast.

I presume that the ridiculously long leadership contests in Canada is a vestige of the days when the geographic size of Canada was more of a "thing". Remember that ever since Mackenzie King became Liberal leader in 1919 - Canada has had delegated leadership contests (and more recently mostly one member, one vote) - and back in the day organizing delegated contests was a long process involving delegate selection meetings and lots of crisscrossing the country. Nowadays there is really no reason to wait so long and all it does is reduce the amount of time the party has to introduice its new leader to the public.

Also, parties cling to this myth that by waiting years to pick a new leader, they we undergo some sort of renewal and will find answers to all these existential questions - none of which ever happens.

To this day it mystifies me why the NDP thought it was a good idea to wait 18 months before picking a successor to Mulcair. There was zero party renewal during that period - it was just 18 months or demoralizing drift - and the outcome was likely exactly the same as it would have been if a new leader had been picked a year earlier     

This is actually an interesting discussion :)

I'm not mad keen on the recent trend for party leaders in the UK quitting almost instantly after a bad result (though occasionally, as with Jo Swinson, there may be little practical alternative) but it may be possible to overdo the "debate and discussion" thing too. On this at least, Corbyn maybe has it about right?

Montreal movie theatre magnate and Dragon's Den star Vincenzo Guzzo might run for CPC leadership.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/dragons-den-star-vincenzo-guzzo-mulls-swapping-reality-tv-for-the-tory-leadership

Guzzo is similar to O'Leary in some ways. He's known to be flashy but brash, as seen by his response to fmr. Minister Mélanie Joly when she scolded him for showing "Unplanned" in his theatres. He calls out political correctness and tweets an awful lot too.

This happens all the time in Canada too.

The UK Liberal Democrats constitution requires the national party leader to be an MP, so Jo Swinson ceased to be leader when she failed to be re-elected. This is quite different from the Canadian practice, where it is quite common to select a new federal leader from outside the existing parliamentary caucus.

John Turner was PM while not having a seat.

So was our own Alec Douglas Home (very briefly)

Turner was PM for less than 3 months and Parliament was dissolved 10 days after he was sworn in. Alas, the Trudeau wing temporarily decided not to depose him after he won his seat.

Angus Reid has a poll out with some interesting data about why the Tories lost last time. (PDF warning) (http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019.12.16_federal_issues.pdf)

In the poll,  voters were divided into "core conservatives" (i.e. Tory voters), "possible conservatives", "unlikely conservatives" and "never conservatives", and asked their opinion about the Tories on a variety of issues. I'm mainly concerned with possible conservatives here, since the core vote plus half the possibles would be majority territory. Among possible conservatives, the poll found the following major problems

1) 64% don't agree that the Tories welcome people from different backgrounds.

2) 59% don't believe the party reflects their region of Canada.

3) 54% believe the party did a poor job of communicating what it stands for.

4) 46% think the Tories need to take climate change more seriously

5) Only 38% think the party is too socially conservative and only 24% think the party represents "the past". Interestingly enough, possible conservatives are less reticent about Tory soconism than actual Tory voters.

Which leads me to my thoughts on the leadership race:

I'm becoming increasingly nervous about the Tories' prospects in the next election. The consensus among party elites, staffers, and even large parts of the membership seems to be that "Pipelines and Pride Parades" is the solution to the party's woes. That is, the primary cause of the loss was Scheer's social stances, so not much change is required beyond liberalizing on abortion and LGBT issues. This solution would be disastrous for the party.

While I am not so foolish as to think that social stances were a non-issue, "Pipelines and Pride Parades" would ignore several key problems with swing voters that are even more pressing. The Harper era goodwill among immigrants is mostly gone, we don't have a credible 'shield' on climate change, and worst of all, the party is coming off as increasingly West-centric. I know personally, even though I should be a core Tory voter, I was starting to find myself alienated by the constant oil, pipeline, and Alberta rhetoric, with no real talk about the Maritimes.

So with that in mind, I'm looking to support a leader who realizes that "Pipelines and Pride Parades" isn't the way to go. We need a leader who realizes that there are other serious problems for the party, and wants to try and solve them. Bonus points if they want the platform to be more than rehashed Harper-'08 boutique tax credits.

Wonder how much of the non-reticent is "swing ethnoburbans", i.e. the Ford Nationals who returned to Justin federally...

Perhaps I'm too geography obsessed, but to win, the Tories have to get the 905 back (and similar suburban voters across the country). These are the people they need to exclusively cater too. Best to ignore social issues altogether, and focus on pocket book measures.  Lower taxes on the middle class, and don't threaten to cut any programs (at least nothing major).

Geez that's a quick turn around. No waiting six months to see what the field is :P

Vincenzo Guzzo, the cinema mogul and Dragons' Den star, is running. (https://www.thepostmillennial.com/exclusive-dragons-den-star-vincenzo-guzzo-is-running-in-cpc-leadership-race/)

Poilievre will announce later this month. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/01/06/pierre-poilievre-to-announce-conservative-leadership-bid-baird-to-chair-campaign.html)

MacKay and Guzzo will announce their intentions by Friday, Charest either this week or next, Ambrose probably out, ditto Deltell. Fortier uncertain, Poilievre and O'Toole TBA. (https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/570292/parti-conservateur-qui-se-jettera-dans-la-melee)

Charest is running (https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/former-quebec-premier-jean-charest-throws-hat-in-for-conservative-leadership-race?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1578485630), and interestingly one of his clients is Huawei  (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-charest-advising-huawei-in-meng-wanzhou-case-and-on-5g-networks/)for the Meng and 5G files (paywalled).

https://twitter.com/CBCPolitics/status/1215022141579628544

Of possibilities so far here are my thoughts:

Ambrose: If she runs, very good chance she wins it as she is from Alberta so can appeal to Western base, yet moderate enough to appeal to more moderate side especially in Eastern half of the country.  Also reasonably well liked so on paper at least looks good in a national election, but obviously one must be cautious here as both Jim Prentice and John Tory (for Ontario PCs in 2007) looked good on paper but didn't perform so well.  But all signs now suggests she doesn't want it.

Charest: Long odds he actually wins it as Western base and those from Reform wing cannot stand him especially with his stances on climate change and gun control.  That being said its every riding gets equal weight so in Quebec where membership is small and Atlantic Canada where most come from PC side (that is assuming MacKay doesn't run) he could do surprisingly well but unlikely to win leadership, still could play key role in ensuring a more moderate vs. right wing candidate wins as his second choices will probably flow that way.  Could help the party in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but probably helps PPC in Prairies where he is seen as too much of a Red Tory, nonetheless, Tories can lose a lot of votes there without losing many seats so might not help the party a lot in a general election vote wise, but would seat wise as shifts would be in all the right places.

MacKay: Comes from the former PC wing, originally from Atlantic Canada and lives in Ontario so should do well in Eastern half of the country.  Unlike Charest I don't think Reform wing and Western base minds him as much, still not likely their first choice but if final ballot MacKay vs. Polievere, most Charest's supporters would likely flow to MacKay and same if MacKay vs. Charest, most Polievere would go to him.  Being moderate and from Atlantic Canada as well as charismatic helps, but I think is a bit overrated and underperformed as cabinet minister.  But still has more potential to widen tent than narrow it.

O'Toole: Not a household name, but did alright last time.  His main challenge is not falling off the ballot early on as probably won't be high on people's first choices, but is respected by all wings so will get a lot of second choices and could emerge as a consensus candidate as someone like Charest or Polievere is bound to anger one side of party.  As a sort of bland non-offensive, how well he does in general election will depend on how popular Trudeau is.  If Trudeau's approval rebounds, he is not the type who can excite people thus probably won't do too well, but as someone who is seen as non-risky if Trudeau's approval ratings fall further, I could see him doing well as being seen as a safe choice.  A lot like Brian Pallister in Manitoba who is not overly well liked, but not scary either and when people were ready to punt the NDP, he didn't scare them away.

Polievere:  Very popular with base and being born in Alberta but living in Ontario helps him build a base in both West and Ontario.  Also shares the hatred and anger much of the membership does of Trudeau.  So while I think he has a great chance of becoming next leader, his chances in a general election are much weaker.  Too much of a pit bull so likely to fire up the base, but I am skeptical about his ability to appeal to swing voters.  Still, as we saw with Doug Ford, if people are mad enough just about anyone can win, but I don't see Trudeau's approval ratings falling to Wynne levels which is what would be needed for him to win.

As for dark horses

Detell and Chong are others who might enter.  Detell especially if Charest doesn't run might stand a better chance and being from CAQ instead of PLQ his conservative credentials are stronger so less issue with Western base while can make a strong case he can bring the same coalition that helped elect Francois Legault provincially into the federal Tories.  Chong looks better after the bad results, but I still don't think party has come around to supporting a carbon tax even if majority of Canadians have.  Otherwise Chong is a great candidate to appeal to swing voters, but not popular amongst base who play a big role in choosing leader.

Charest will enter in the next couple of weeks and be endorsed by Mulroney and Brad Wall. (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202001/08/01-5256136-charest-plongera-sans-lappui-de-harper.php) MacKay is "100% in." (https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/peter-mackay-is-a-100-per-cent-in-for-the-conservative-leadership-race-say-friends)

Ambrose wins it if she runs I think. She's popular with most groups and it's hard to see an Anyone But Rona movement developing. But assuming she doesn't run...

Reds
Charest will probably flop. He isn't even popular with actual Quebec Tories. He'll probably run up the score in the rotten boroughs in Quebec but that's it. MacKay has a better shot, but Charest's rotten boroughs might sink him early. Also Quebec+Atlantic isn't near enough, so he'll need to make some noise in Ontario. Chong is lol. If Scheer didn't have "it" then Chong definitely doesn't. Plus there aee more credible Red Tory candidates this time.

Blues
Deltell is an intriguing candidate as a Franco Blue, who isn't a political idiot *cough Bernier cough*. Not sure he can break out of that Quebec base though. He doesn't have the free market thing going for him like Bernier. O'Toole strikes me as the guy who would win in an old style delegated convention, but he's a bit too bland to win under the current rules IMO. Who knows, maybe he wins like Scheer did last time :P.

I can see Pollievre winning if there isn't a credible Western candidate. SoCons + Western base + enough of Ontario, should be plenty to win. That's a big if though.

As things currently stand, I guess I'd give a very tepid vote to Pollievre. He's too much of a bulldog and he doesn't pass DC Al Fine's patented Will-He-Betray-SoCons-Test^TM, but my main priorities were that the leader be a social conservative and not a Westerner, and he clearly is the best candidate of the bunch based on that. *Shrug*

Gladu is in and Ambrose will announce her intentions next week. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/marilyn-gladu-conservative-leadership-1.5420743?cmp=rss)

Fortier is out. (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202001/10/01-5256277-michael-fortier-ne-sera-pas-candidat-a-la-direction-du-pcc.php)

Had no real chance, not a household name except for political junkies, still should maybe run as more strong candidates they can get in Quebec the better.  And also unlike Scheer, should give them a more prominent role as most of them understand province better.

Ted Falk considering, Rempel and Ambrose probably won't run. (https://ipolitics.ca/2020/01/14/manitobas-ted-falk-considering-leadership-run-ambrose-and-rempel-laying-low/)

Ambrose out. (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202001/14/01-5256850-direction-du-parti-conservateur-ambrose-ne-sera-pas-candidate.php)

https://twitter.com/PeterMacKay/status/1217527351518679042

Harper has resigned from the Fund board.  (https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/stephen-harper-resigns-from-the-conservative-fund-board/?fbclid=IwAR08yNApaeJaGWZ5vaOvf-8Cs4VaiE_Y41U-_hu0EfByiDE699YkRi0S9hg)

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

Eh, I don't see how Ambrose would've fixed the party's Western-centric problems (which IIRC Angus Reid found was even more of a problem than Scheer's social conservatism).

MacKay or Deltell (or yes even Pollievre) would be better on that front. :P

Other two leaders male so while a female leader an asset not a requirement.  I do agree though Poilievre if chosen would hand the next election to Trudeau on a silver platter.  MacKay and O'Toole I think could win but far from certain and a lot would depend on campaign, events, and platform.  Charest won't become leader so pointless discussing how well he would do in GE.

After all my talk about the West-centric Tory party, it looks like there might not even be an MP from the Western caucus in the race :P

Or even former MPs, if we count Rona Ambrose.

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.

I'm not sure anyone in my circles would call Bernier a socon haha :P

But yes, that's an interesting point. The rules this time make it very difficult for a backbencher to make a factional run this time, and there aren't exactly a ton of socons on the front bench. What's more, even the supposed 'soft socon' candidate has already thrown socons under the bus in the French press.

That leaves ~25-30% of the party without a candidate. It will be interesting to see how the social liberal candidates will approach these voters. Winning the socons in a soconless race would be a huge bump, but overpromising could lead to problems in the election both with the media and the socons themselves.

Pollievre tacking left also probably explains this:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1218209938876530688

Maher says other teams' internals show MacKay with a double digit lead. (https://twitter.com/macleans/status/1218289419901374467)

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Nevertheless, it'd be strange if there weren't a Trost/Lemieux standard-bearer (Scheer was more of a soft-pedal case, since he was actually running to win, rather than to simply advance an agenda).  At least it makes sense as a Conservative equivalent to socialist-caucus NDPers like Niki Ashton...

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

That's true, but I'm afraid the party and consultant class are overcorrecting on this. Social conservatives cannot be expected to vote for people who have contempt for them. The Conservative Party, while diverse, cannot win without social conservatives in the tent.

Even ignoring my socon bugbear, the party elites and consultants seem to have decided to go after the vanishingly small electorate in the "bottom right" quadrant of the political compass instead of the much more numerous "top left" voters that brought the right so much success in the rest of the West.

Guess we'll get to see Trudeau copy his father's election record :P

Off the top of my head (though not based on any information in particular), it's possible we could see Peter Kent step aside. He's been in parliament for a few terms now, and Thornhill is the safest non-rural CPC seat that close to Toronto, where the CPC wants to make inroads and where MacKay currently lives.

According to Wikipedia (so take that for what you will), MacKay's early endorsees from caucus are Ed Fast (Abbotsford), Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe), and Dean Allison (Niagara West). All are MPs serving their 5th or 6th terms representing safe CPC seats, so they could all conceivably step aside. I'm not aware of any connections MacKay would have to any of their ridings, although that's not necessarily a deal breaker.

Is Scheer planning on staying in Parliament long term? If he's quitting once the new leader is picked, his seat would do.

I have a hunch Scheer is one of those guys who will remain an MP until he either does or is defeated. His whole life is politics and nothing else. He has no profession (not even as an insurance adjuster) so there is nothing for him to do other than to be an MP

Deltell announces on Facebook he won't run.

Or collect a parlliamentary pension, or be appointed to various boards, etc.  The usual kind of "post-political-career" drop-in-the-bucket stuff...

Charest is out.

I'm pleasantly surprised that he had enough sense to drop out. I'm amazed that he had the amount of self-delusion to think that 1. members from rural Ontario and Prairies would vote for him over literally anybody else and 2. he would have any chance in Québec after the early 2010s corruptionfest.

After Harper specifically left his neutral-by-party-rules position in order to block Charest, it was kind of a done deal. When Harper is against you, you don't have much of a chance. That he was willing to make such a big deal out of it was weird, but doing so killed his campaign before it even started. If Harper decides to back anybody, I assume they'll win the leadership.


He's dead in the water, guaranteed. He won't catch on & will drop out to support Poilievre in what'll eventually be a Poilievre vs. MacKay race. Gladu will also drop out, but she'll support MacKay.

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1220064004569214978

Ambrose announces she's out.

Rona Ambrose is out so definitely a huge blow, but also helps increase MacKay's odds of becoming next leader quite a bit.

Its just whether one is a SoCon or not, its whether it is a top issue.  I suspect the number of Canadians who have abortion or gay marriage as one of their top 3 priorities is under 2%so little downside if they leave.  For immigrant communities, I've found they rarely tend to vote on this.  I think most understand Canada is more socially liberal than the country they are from so has little impact on how they vote.  Many Muslims are quite socially conservative yet overwhelming majority vote Liberal or NDP with Tory support amongst Muslim community being in single digits.

Where it maybe had an impact was back when gay marriage was legalized as many Liberal MPs from heavily ethnic ridings in GTA voted against.  For example in Scarborough, all six Liberal MPs in 2005 voted against it.

Just mild disdain? Probably nothing happens, especially if Trudeau pulls something like the abortion attestation again.

Now suppose the new leader's disdain for the movement is more than mild and makes many socons feel unwelcome in the party. I would expect somewhat depressed socon turnout, an uptick in the number of and support for Christian Heritage candidates, and possibly some modest movement to the PPC/Wexit.

Socons are actually fairly evenly distributed across Canada. E.g. Evangelicals make up ~5-8% of the population in most non-Quebec cities. What does that mean for the final result? Nothing huge. The Tories aren't going to lose any safe seats over it. Instead, I would expect the Tories to lose a few races on the margin (wherever the margin is in that election), because their GOTV wasn't quite as good as they hoped and/or the CHP got 1.25% in the seat instead of the expected 0.5%. That sort of thing.

All that being said, I don't expect us to get all that alienated after the leadership race. I'd expect a competent centrist with a sense of his coalition, would do what Harper did and refuse to touch social issues while giving us a couple of the non-divisive things on our wishlist to keep us happy.

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerekSloanCPC/status/1220012199042670592

Justice critic and first term socon MP Derek Sloan has thrown his hat in the ring.

Officially starting the campaign without a media availability? That's sure to set the tone for his run, as well as his tenure, if elected.

This run has obviously been on the books since spring 2015, when he ducked out of the house before Harper's inevitable loss & cited his love of family as to why he had to leave federal politics. Guess that changed?

Yeah, he's got somewhat of a polling lead on the other candidates, but that's not saying much; worth noting that, this far out in the last race, O'Leary was a front runner, so a lot can happen.

Regardless, though, I think that if they have to go back to the past to get a leader, then that says a lot about the viability of the CPC going forward. MacKay may be a great politician, but he's clearly a politician from back in the day, & if that's the best that the CPC has, well... okay, I guess? But that's a big problem, though.


Glad it's official. I don't really blame her; signing up for this race is no guarantee that you won't be replaced in a couple years just like Scheer. It's a lot of attention, & requires giving up that cushy private sector life. Not to mention, the cost of running, since the required funds for this election have been raised substantially compared to the last contest.

Despite being the 'favorite', she wasn't exactly polling highly. I think she was topping out <20% support? Since the CPC use a ranked ballot system, that kind of polling doesn't necessarily translate to a win.

Now that it's official (instead of just being rumored for weeks), I wonder if she'll endorse somebody (specifically, Gladu, based on her statement).

Pierre Paul-Hus and Luc Berthold endorse MacKay, and Poilievre will announce on Sunday. (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202001/23/01-5257954-direction-du-pcc-peter-mackay-obtient-lappui-de-deux-deputes-du-quebec.php?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=algofb&fbclid=IwAR3L9-OGhu82Y4pCDQKR8TYcgcGxjLldfZMmVo1m4eooRWoC3dffYBImL_o)

That worked so well for them in 2015.

This is still Stephen Harper's party. They'll do what they do.

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

WTF!?!

This is a huge surprise. Something big must've happened.

With him out of the way, though, it's now MacKay's to lose.

This is starting to be no contest. Did Poilievre figure it would be hard to win, maybe after losing social conservative support he would have needed to make it possible ? Strange to drop out 3 days before his official launch.

Paul-Hus says MacKay's French is adequate to lead the party, that it's better than people expect.

I've heard many comments in the last weeks that his French was not very good. Maybe it was from people of other camps. I think many Quebec conservatives were hoping for someone perfectly bilingual.

Yeah, signing Jenni Byrne and John Baird to not make a run doesn't make any sense. Maybe someone in another camp has something on him?


I found that whole stretch confusing. His path to victory seemed kind of narrow with MacKay shaping up to be a powerhouse, so it's odd that he tossed us so early. That 15% that voted Trost and Lemieux over Scheer last time would've come in handy. :\

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

Michelle Rempel is really is a nasty anti-French piece of work, isn't she?

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

If Michael Chong led the Conservatives, then they could probably form a government, but they'd have to convince their base that the carbon tax (which was originally a conservative idea) isn't an evil communist plot.

Regardless, though, even if he doesn't win the leadership, I hope whoever wins (in all likelihood, MacKay) does indeed let Chong handle the party's environment/climate policy.

Elections aren't an exercise in checking candidates' relative positions on a one axis political spectrum. I like Chong. Love his efforts on parliamentary reform. But the man's lack of charisma makes Andrew Scheer look like Justin Trudeau.

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

It will happen eventually but maybe not until 2030.  Party will face a tough slog to win no matter who they choose, but with right leader they might have a shot, but wrong one risk going backwards.

All the same, it was a measure of *where* he won, or where the PCs gained (or lost) most ground relative to previous elections...

I think that Trudeau Jr. could be in power for as long as his dad was. Pierre Trudeau served from 1968 to 1984, and the provincial Liberals were in charge for 15 years. Justin Trudeau could still be in charge in the 2030's. Liberal governments in Canada last a very long time.

Go Erin O'Toole

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.


Agreed.

Given polling and election results in the rest of the Anglosphere, it's clear that going after the "upper left" quadrant can be a winning strategy, while going after "bottom rights" is a more dubious proposition.

Obviously the federal Canadian version of this will look different than Trump or BoJo (or even Ford), but if we can get a 'professional' leader pushing in that direction, it could be very effective.

Historically yes, however today things move faster and also Liberal domination in past was due to dominating Quebec which they no longer have a lock on although Ontario and Atlantic Canada which used to be bellwethers now have a Liberal tilt.  At same time Western Canada which has outside a few pockets never been friendly to Liberals has grown.  So I think Liberal government lasting until 2030 while possible is unlikely.  I think question is do they make 2025 or not and that will depend on how they govern and also whom Tories chose.

With MacKay the frontrunner and being from the PC wing, that side is already taken and really the party being more Reform dominated can only take one from that side.  Also party is still against carbon tax and probably has to lose another election or two over that before they change at which point Chong would have a better chance. 

Does he really, though? I mean, I'm not saying that nobody should run against MacKay, but I just don't understand why O'Toole would when his entire 2017 leadership campaign basically relied on trying to get most of the PC & Atlantic vote, which MacKay has entirely wrapped up this time.

How much of her profile in Canadian politics is related to people immediately recognizing her name because she shares it with a '90s sitcom star? :P

Not much actually. She was Candace Hoeppner for most of her political career only became Bergen a couple of years ago when she married

Sure. He didn't have one when he started (because of the issues you noted), but given the makeup of the field, one has opened up for him:

1) Blunt MacKay's crossover appeal
2) Go after voters who are too right wing for MacKay but not overtly factional
3) Get preferences from socons on the later ballots

Well, her namesake was the daughter of Edgar Bergen, and the previous Conservative leader was sometimes compared to Charlie McCarthy; so, there you go. ;-)

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/02/05/inside-the-mackay-campaign-frustration-confusion-and-lack-of-coherence.html)

Makes sense. Early messaging has been a mess.

If MacKay thinks that because he's a heavy early favorite that he can slack off & not keep a tight ship, then he'll regret it. If he continues down this path, then he may very well go the way that Biden's campaign has gone thus far.

Baird is considering but says the window's closing. (https://globalnews.ca/news/6521874/john-baird-conservative-leadership/?utm_medium=Facebook&utm_source=GlobalNews&fbclid=IwAR0sAhB17oqPK2di3m-lB6HjBrtezoDPzt0gRcxfL8j5SdcB_rO4ja8W6z0)

He's gonna be in the media every other day testing the waters now so that won't be annoying at all.

I'm not even sure where he fits on the palette. A more refined Peter MacKay? Can't see him swinging right with O'Toole. Anything left of blue Tory & he'll be a liberal to the membership. Definitely not a social conservative.

Never mind that, though. Baird's reputation was seriously tarnished when he appeared sympathetic to the Saudis during Canada's spat with them over human rights, & you better believe that Trudeau has the Saudi tapes on stand by in case of a Baird win, so I'm sure the Liberals would be thrilled were he to do so. He just makes it too easy for those attack ads.

There are also all kinds of rumours and allegations that Baird sexually assaulted young men in his office and in his foreign travels. If he were to run all of that would come out...

They are already out on twitter and pretty sure if not media, one of his opponents would raise it.

Translation: He knew that if he ran he would be exposed as a serial abuser of young men...apparently the reason he quite abruptly as Foreign Affairs minister was some video of him with Palestinian boys at a brothel in Israel

Leslyn Lewis is the third candidate to meet the first set of requirements to get on the ballot, along with MacKay and O'Toole. Kind of surprising as she beat some of the better known socons and Marilyn Gladu out the gate.

That's the rumours I've been hearing on my side of the aisle *cringe*

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

Talking about how a party "can't" in a country like Canada is silly. In the last ten years alone we have 2011, 2015, Alberta 2015, Quebec 2018. Going back further we have 1993, BC 1991 and on and on.

Even ignoring the big wave elections, it's not all that hard to imgaine a Tory win. The economy might not be as strong next time, the government might bungle a file etc etc. The poll movements required for a Tory win just aren't that big; absorb the PPC, and some pretty small movements from Lib to Tory/NDP/Green would do it.

I think the talk about Canada being 'left' is more a symptom of an underlying issue for the Canadian right; that popular right wing politics in Quebec vs ROC is often contradictory and difficult to synthesize. Due to this issue and the post-colonial mindset in much of Quebec, a lot of people who vote CAQ provincially or who would for the right if Quebec were an independent state, vote for the left federally. Deprived of these voters (with some notable exceptions), the Tories are stuck trying to win voters that aren't very sympathetic to them in order to win power. Those suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver that the Tories need to win to win a majority government definitely fit your analysis.

Or put another way. Imagine an alternate universe where Quebec was settled by Anglophones, and was roughly analogous to Ontario. Montreal is Toronto 2.0, rural Quebec is like rural southern Ontario, Lac St Jean is like Sudbury or Thunder Bay etc. Maybe the PM is Justin Turnbull and Mark Burns quit to set up his own party. I don't know if Scheer wins that election, but the Tories and NDP would certainly do a heck of a lot better than they did IRL purely on demographics.

True enough although if you look at Canada's largest province Ontario, Tories generally get in the 30s and more often than not finish behind the Liberals.  BC despite being good for the Conservatives in past seems to be drifting away with Interior still solidly for parties on right at provincial and federal level but Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island much less so than a decade ago.  That being said Quebec is more rural than Ontario and less diverse so the demographics actually in Quebec are more favourable for parties on right than they are in Ontario thus to your point.  Liberals have the benefit in Quebec in that they have the non-Franco vote locked up so gives them a much stronger starting point than the Tories there.

Go O'Toole

Karahilos disqualified

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pro-life-candidates-leslyn-lewis-derek-sloan-qualify-for-final-ballot-in-tory-leadership-race

The Conservatives have very much become the party of the Prairies.

Is campaigning even still going on right now amidst the coronavirus crisis?

No one seems to be doing public events, but I'm still getting email blasts and phone calls. MacKay did a virtual town hall a few days ago.

Moving the vote forward would be weird. Either keep the date or push it back (hell, it's not like the government's falling anytime soon anyway).

Idiotic.

https://twitter.com/atRachelGilmore/status/1243289158795354117

This lunatic quest essentially confirms everything I've ever thought about MacKay. He looks good - sometimes, he even sounds good - but he has zero judgement.

Race resumes now and will end on August 21. (https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2020/04/29/federal-conservatives-look-at-august-21-for-leadership-vote.html)

This is the B listers and below, like last time. 

August feels like a solid lifetime away, even with the years of March & April finally behind us. What's more, that's a hell of a long time for the CPC to hold onto a political zombie as their leader.

It seems Tories have a big problem in that what base wants is not what Canadian public wants so appeal to swing voters and lose leadership race or pander to base and win leadership but lose next election.  Their response to Liberal assault weapons ban perfect example of that.  Almost 80% of Canadians support it but Conservative membership does not thus putting them into a trap.  Regardless of what one thinks of the bill or timing, Liberals baited Tories on this and they took the bait.

I thought this leadership race was not really a race but maybe there is a race.

A Conservative source told La Presse Mackay is in the lead but O'Toole has some momentum.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202005/10/01-5273029-le-vent-est-il-en-train-de-tourner-chez-les-conservateurs.php (https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202005/10/01-5273029-le-vent-est-il-en-train-de-tourner-chez-les-conservateurs.php)

Jason Kenney's support for O'Toole gace some life to Anybody but Mackay. In Quebec in the last weeks, Carl Vallée who worked with Harper endorsed O'Toole. He was followed by Chicoutimi MP Richard Martel and former Cabinet Minister Christian Paradis.

Former MP Alupa Clarke is presiding O'Toole's Quebec campaign. Vincent Guzzo who was interested in running for leader supports O'Toole and also Senator Leo Housakos who is a good organizer.

Fundraisings numbers by March 31 show Mackay raising more money but O'Toole has more donors.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-fundraising-1.5554978?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-fundraising-1.5554978?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar)

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/)

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

Why is Derek Sloan even running in the first place? I get that Lewis is a social conservative but why is Sloan even running?

With these numbers, O'Toole would win if this were a popular vote race: MacKay couldn't win on the first ballot & Sloan/Lewis supporters would back O'Toole before MacKay as their 2nd choice.

Unfortunately, though, polls like this are useless since the voting is weighted on the per-riding basis. With MacKay having his support more efficiently distributed in the east (with support in Ontario &, critically, Atlantic Canada), if O'Toole is simply cleaning up in the West (especially Alberta), then MacKay could very well still win on the 1st ballot by sweeping smaller ridings in Eastern & Central Canada, even if O'Toole is raking in tens of thousands of more raw votes that just happen to be concentrated in a smaller number of ridings.

How do you think either two would perform in general election.

My view is neither can beat Trudeau, although I don't think Tories no matter who leader is can beat Liberals.  I think pandemic has pulled public enough to left that Tories will be unelectable for forseeable future so its more who can stop the party from becoming an Alberta/Saskatchewan rump so when time comes, which I think is at least a decade away, they can win.

MacKay is more centrist so should be a better choice, but weaker French thus harms his chances in Quebec than O'Toole.  And has a much weaker campaign team.  What are others thoughts?  Should party even try to win or should it be more staying relevant until political scene changes.

MacKay or O'Toole obviously have a chance to upright the sinking ship that Scheer will leave them, but it's not gonna be easy. Mackay in particular probably thought that he could sail in & become PM sometime soon after the Trudeau show drew itself to a close; that's obviously gonna take longer than expected now on account of how much ground there is to recover. Whoever wins, they've got a job ahead of them because Trudeau has proven himself to be a very effective leader & I imagine even those who generally lean Conservative will think twice before deciding to chuck Trudeau out for an untested alternative in a time of crisis.

IMO, the next CPC leader will likely need 2 elections to come within striking distance of Trudeau. Both MacKay & O'Toole are producing lots of attack-ad material for the Liberals as they seek support from the right flank of the CPC membership. A 3rd Trudeau government would give the public a chance to forget the current partisan pandering & become tired of Trudeau.

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

I thought the Comedy of Theresa May would have taught every anglosphere politician how horribly things like this can backfire in the modern era.

Eh, it can backfire but only if you f**k up the campaign itself as badly as May did. I'd hope Trudeau can't manage to f**k up that badly.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Eh, every single government around the world is deficit spending & increasing their national debt right now (& understandably so), so I'd like to think that wouldn't be a huge issue for Trudeau.

Yeah, the deficit is a much longer term risk. In the short term the big risk is presiding over a very weak economy.

The tough thing about calling a snap election to take advantage of COVID goodwill (and this goes for all leaders, not just Trudeau), is that it's a very narrow window of opportunity to exploit. If he goes too early, it will be irresponsible and he'll get crucified for playing politics with a pandemic. If he goes too late the COVID goodwill will have worn off and he'll just be a normal incumbent presiding over a crap economy. It's very hard to hit that sweet spot where one still has goodwill but it wouldn't be seen as crazy to call a national election.

Agreed--Trudeau made some huge mistakes. My post was more based around how I think May was just a really, really bad politician (at least in terms of campaigning and electoral calculus), which is one of a few reasons why the 2017 UK election is hard to extrapolate to other elections in the English speaking political world

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf (https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf)

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

If I redistribute the votes according to 2nd choice, I get for votes:
MacKay 51.0%, O'Toole 49.0%

If I try to simulate points by using regional samples and the same 2nd choice tables (and supposing every riding votes votes the same within a region), I get:
MacKay 50.5%, O'Toole 49.5% (in points 16925 to 16575 with 300 territories points not distributed).

This race is not MacKay's to lose.

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.

From the crosstabs (assuming undecided split the same way as the decided ones), MacKay gets 37% of Sloane voters and 27% of Lewis voters, which is enough, but very barely.

The second choice result is on the last page of the document. I think I have to read it by column so that would make Sloan's second choice: 57% Lewis, 17.9 O'Toole, 10.7% Mackay, 19.7% undecided and 3.7% no second choice.

Lewis voters give second choice: 38.2% O'Toole, 33.2% Sloane, 13.8% Mackay, 12% undecided, 2.7% no second choice

This. The race is a tossup. Just eyeballing it, on those #'s MacKay needs ~25% of the Lewis/Sloan vote to win, which is definitely doable, but not guaranteed thanks to the er... problematic things he said about the kind of people who are voting for Lewis & Sloan.

Another issue to consider: Mainstreet polled the last race quite extensively. The biggest overperformers compared to the polls last time? Trost, Lemieux and Scheer. It may not happen this time, but it shows the point. If the (very difficult to poll) leadership polls are underpolling the right even a little bit, O'Toole should win.

Two debates will be held in Toronto. June 17 in French and June 18 in English.

There is an article in The Hill Times on the possibility of a Fall election, it would be a good moment for the Liberals to win a majority. Pollster Nik Nanos "expects that once the money stops going into the system in the new year, and the government starts to introduce measures to cut programs and services, or to raise taxes, the government’s popularity will plummet."

"the Liberals have a legitimate rationale to call an election in the fall, considering the enormity of the crisis, and they can reasonably argue they need a fresh mandate."

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478 (https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478)

The Liberals are experiencing a bump in the polls because they've been measured & responsible during the COVID-19 crisis. Calling a fall election wouldn't be measured or responsible amid the virus. Calling such an election so rapidly could (& very likely would) undo a lot of the bump they've received, particularly if several provinces are still trying to get the outbreaks under control. To put it simply, an early election at this point would be widely seen as opportunistic & frankly dangerously reckless too if the virus is still around.

Yes, plus they will be wary in any case after what happened last time.

Erin O'Toole released a detailed platform https://erinotoole.ca/platform//.  No real controversial policies and mostly standard fare for Tories.  Not the strong moderation although a few sections show some, but no sign of shifting hard to right either.  His main problem is less policies but more tone like Take Back Canada.  I think that sounds too much like Make America Great Again and while fires up base, is a terrible slogan to use in a general election.  If he wins, he should keep his platform and perhaps make adjustments as things change (we live in a quickly changing world with COVID-19) but have a more positive idea.  In 2001 when BC Liberals had a detailed platform, it was Called New Era for BC so sort of a positive sounding one or same with Obama who despite US being in bad shape when he took office, he had a forward looking positive vision.

Trudeau calling a fall election would give me Theresa May 2017 vibes. Very bad idea.

Keep in mind though that the CPC leadership race weighs each riding equally. The thousands of CPC members in a rural Alberta riding will have the same say as the hundreds (if that) in Toronto-Danforth. This effectively means that ridings with a lower Conservative presence have a built-in advantage, generally advantaging more moderate candidates. Not to mention MacKay has a home field advantage in Atlantic Canada, which has relatively few CPC members, and the ridings usually have a smaller population. Meaning MacKay's votes will be especially efficient.

MacKay's lack of French is really his big weakness, because Quebec ridings are a goldmine for CPC candidates. Most Quebec ridings have very few CPC members, so their vote is ultra-efficient. O'Toole speaks "English politician" French, true, but MacKay's French is...yikes. Quebecers take their language seriously, Harper had to learn that the hard way. The fact that MacKay didn't bother to learn better French after 17 years in federal politics doesn't reflect well on him.

Mario Dumont had an interview with O'Toole on his tv show. Mackay was also invited but he declined. Turning down a rare opportunity to be seen by the public could be playing it safe because not being confident enough in his French. It could hurt him if there is a looking bad moment.

Mackay has the support of 5 Quebec MPs, O'Toole has 1.

I've not seem much media coverage of the race. One time four women Mackay supporters accused O'Toole of not having a clear position on abortion. I read a news story on the policies for Quebec in the O'Toole platform.

He still exists!

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399)

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.

Is this going to hurt him at all? Because I don't have the impression that many party members would be opposed to this - after all, it's only a vague hint about being "concerned", O'Toole isn't going all GOP. Sure, there might be a few people who might agree but not want him as a leader because it could hurt the party, but if anyone thinks that way, they're probably a political analyst, not a card-carrying Tory.

Also, this is pretty off-topic, but I couldn't help it because it's hilarious.

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1272959639689273350

Sounds like a weirdo Pirate politician circa 2010: "How are we going to topple the Trudeau regime? With LIKES and ONLINE SUPPORT, of course!"

In the Tory leadership race? I think the sort of card carrying Tory who might be upset about this made up their minds for MacKay a long time ago. Honestly I'd be kind of annoyed if some politcal analyst types are acting surprised or upset by this. Getting Lewis and Sloan's preferences on the final ballot was part of O'Toole's path to victory since the field firmed up. What did they expect? For a politician not to try and win necessary votes ::)

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

I thought McKay couldn't speak French?

Would you mind contextualizing that scale? E.g. How would Maxime Bernier's English rank on that scale?

Another piece of evidence that social conservatism in Canada is really two closely related camps, not one single group. Lemieux and Trost gave us hints of this last time, but Lewis and Sloan are proving it in spades.

Consensus from what I've read:

a) It's not that he couldn't speak it at all like Lewis, but his French was very poor, especially for someone who has been seen as a PM in waiting since like 2004.

b) He's improved quite a bit, but his French still isn't quite as good Scheer's or Harper's (no idea where they fit on Poirot's 1/10 scale)

Listening to it a bit, his vocabulary is okay, his pronouncian isn't great, but it's understandable. His main issue is that he's clearly just translating sentences in his head word for word from English, so it sounds very clunky.

Mackay's French is a downgrade from previous leaders so not ideal for those wishing a perfectly fluent bilingual leader. His wife still needs to make him practice.


I don't know how good his English is so couldn't compare, if he has only pronunciation problems or his sentence make it hard to understand his ideas.

I found Mackay's score card for a 5 to compare: Communicates rather effectively even with his accent and pronunciation difficulties.  Erroers in syntax and vocabulary sometimes make it hard to understand his ideas.

The 6 for O'Toole was speak with an accent but his speech is fluid. He makes mistakes but generally his French is easy to understand. He can easily answer questions without looking at his notes.

It's subjective. For a 6 there was no big negative comments. Maybe it would give French language speakers 8 or 9 so for second language 6 or 7 is good considering pronunciation and inevitable mistakes sometimes.

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos (https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos)

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

Whatever the source, I think it's fair to call this a sign that Mackay's team is besting O'Toole's, and O'Toole knows it.

A Calgary MP supporting O'Toole fires summer student. That student allegedly took the MP's login for Zoom, downloaded information, shared with the Mackay team, shared the login and password and met with a Mackay Alberta organizer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/greg-mclean-calgary-student-erin-otoole-peter-mackay-rcmp-theft-1.5623817 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/greg-mclean-calgary-student-erin-otoole-peter-mackay-rcmp-theft-1.5623817)

There are some Conservative leadership questions in the last Leger weekly pandemic survey.

Who would make the best leader ? 70% don't know or refuse to answer. 18% Mackay, 5% O'Toole, 4% Lewis, 2% Sloan.
Among the Conservative voters in the poll, it's 47% don't know, 30% Mackay, 10% O'Toole, 8% Lewis, 5% Sloan.

Voting intentions in the poll are 39% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 19% New Democrat
with Mackay as leader it's 38-28-18
with O'Toole as leader it's 39-25-19
with Lewis as leader 40-23-20
with Sloan as leader 41-21-20

It asked if people would be more or less likely to consider voting Conservative if the leader adopted three policy positions:

A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support climate change strategy would make 32% more likely and 11% less likely to consider voting

A plan to improve relations with Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims would make 26% more likely and 13% less likely

A clear commitment not re-open the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re-open the abortion issue would make 23% more likey and 13% less likely

I have often heard the party needs to put social issues behind to be more appealing but it looks like there is more potential by having a strong environmental policy but it doesn't look like it will happen.

Wife and I got our leadership ballots in the mail yesterday. We are voting for Lewis. I still need to figure out my downballot preferences.


Polling found a similar result in the aftermath of the 2019 election.

It's interesting since there's been quite a bit of talk about the role social issues and socons should play in the party since the last election, there's been virtually none about the environment or First Nations issues, and the leadership candidates aren't proposing any course change (except I vaguely remember Lewis suggesting we should subsidize renewable energy more or something).

The Tories better hope that the voters act like it's 2008 and put climate aside in favour of economics, or else they'll have some serious issues in the next election.

The current situation might shift discourse towards economics and public finances. That could be good for Conservatives but the Liberals could sell a plan for the economy and the environment, the two are linked.

Mackay was on a regional tour. In a Sherbrooke newspaper he was asked about enviromnental issues. He siad environment is very important for his party. The biggest contribution the country can make is deliver natyral gas to world markets. influence countries that use coal to use cleaner natural gas. I don't think that will convince voters who have environement has a top issue.

O'Toole had something like carbon pricing for industrial emitters and opponent seems to attack him of wanting to impose a carbon tax.

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

I wonder after Lewis's loss in the leadership race, I wonder if the Conservatives are going to get her to run somewhere?

Lots of minority ridings or ridings with low Conservative numbers to begin with (except Cumberland-Colchester, weird).

Good news for Lewis?

Relative to the last leadership race, the Ontario trio probably got a bump from the intervening "Ford Nation" provincial effect.

And Scarborough North is next door to where Lewis ran in 2015, though I'm not sure whether the demos are "her sort" except maybe at the Malvern end.  (But on the whole, I don't think there's *too* much pressure on her to run somewhere--despite the novelty of her race and gender, she hasn't exactly been a hey-look barnburner, even as a kingmaker.  Or relative to the NDP, she's more of a Martin Singh than a Jagmeet Singh.)

That Quebec list screams Italian.

Three Liberal ridings. Someone has been selling membership within ethnic communities I guess.

I was thinking Greek factor. Senator Housakos is said to be a good organizer. He supports O'Toole. He is from Laval and ran for Canadian Alliance in Laval West. There is a greek community in Parc Extension in Papineau. My Greek theory doesn't explain Saint-Leonard.

Nice (though they should've limited it 269,420 for the double-nice).

Yes, a lot of this stuff is better explained by who's been putting in legwork where and who has the support of some local fixer than anything ideological.

With that in mind, a Chinese friend of mine says she's seeing a lot of Sloan ads in Chinese-language media. I guess his people are trying to repeat the Brad Trost strategy.

What is the significance of that number? ???

Trost won Brossard riding so maybe Sloan will do well with Chinese language strategy.
I found an onternet page with some vote totals from last leadership. It had Papineau and Saint-Léonard with around 50 votes each, so easier to show big percentage gain in new members.

I think yes. Don't know if there is a winnable riding where she is but she is doing well. There is an opinion piece, the author thinks she will finish second with Sloan's vote.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-leslyn-lewis-leadership-bid-kory-teneycke-1.5665584 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-leslyn-lewis-leadership-bid-kory-teneycke-1.5665584)

Lewis can't attend a debate event due to medical reason. Mackay decides he will not attend. He didn't participate in a BC debate and another in Toronto I think. 

Just mailed in my ballot :)

While little polling here are my thoughts on how things will go:

Sloan: He will fall off after first ballot, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets into double digits or does better than expected.  He is a lot like Brad Trost and Tanya Allen Granic.  Both seen as extreme but had a loyal following.  Social conservatives may be a big anchor on the party in terms of electability, but one should not underestimate how strong there.  Once he falls off, most of his support will go to Lewis and some to O'Toole so better he does better for those two.

Lewis: She has gained a lot of momentum and she is a social conservative but sort of seen as more acceptable to broader public so some talk she may come in second ahead of O'Toole.  I suspect most of her second choices if she comes in third to go to O'Toole while if she finishes ahead of O'Toole, she might actually become next leader of Tories.  Not likely but not impossible either.

O'Toole:  He needs to accomplish two things to win.  Remain ahead of Lewis and keep MacKay under 45% on first ballot.  He has far more room for growth than MacKay on subsequent ballots as he is more acceptable to the base than MacKay is.  Yes that is problematic in a general election, but in leadership race, base not swing voters decide results.

MacKay: He is acting confident so I am guessing he likes numbers.  Also since each riding is weighted equally that may work in MacKay's favour as he should do well in areas where Tory membership is low, i.e. more progressive ridings where people understand party needs to moderate to win.  Will do poorly in Prairies but since each riding weighted equally, Quebec and Ontario each on their own carry more weight.  Should win big in Atlantic Canada, Quebec is a wildcard, likely first in Ontario, tight in BC while in Prairies only in Manitoba could I see him coming first.  I think Saskatchewan will go for Lewis or O'Toole while Alberta for O'Toole.  Ideally his goal should be to win on first ballot, but if not at least get over 47% as he won't get a lot of second choices.

In many ways MacKay is for those who believe party needs to moderate to win, while O'Toole/Lewis are for those who believe party needs to remain on right and change message and tactics, not where it sits on political spectrum.  Sloan is your Trump wannabe.

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/ (https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/)

The Wexit or the People's Party could attack McKay and the "elites" for rigging the leadership elections if that happens.

Seems like a pretty strong poll, guess all we can do now is wait & see how the first ballot responses line up with the result: if MacKay doesn't hit 40, then he's in trouble.

Didn't Bernier get slightly more votes than Scheer? Or am I misremembering that?

No, according to the raw voting figures, Scheer got 62,593 raw votes to Bernier's 55,544.

I'm quite surprised that poll has MacKay winning with only 41% support on the first ballot. I suppose the preferences aren't as bad for him as I thought, because I was thinking if he got below like 45% he would be DOA.

You may be remembering how Doug Ford beat Christine Elliot due to points, despite losing the popular vote.

Welp, off to bed then. I'll find out the result in the morning.

"We're experiencing a higher-than-normal call volume. Your call is important to us & a ballot result will be given to you as soon as possible."

They had to tape ballots back together and refill some other ones because the envelope opening machine also doubled up as an paper eating machine, it seems. If only there were other ways to open envelopes without destroying its contents.

How did they do an exit poll for a mail-in vote?

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1297715938318524418

I imagine exit poll means contacting people after they sent in their vote or a poll in the last week.

If they say the poll is done for a campaign would that boost that candidate. People could be more likely to say yes I support you than maybe tell the truth.

Unless I’m missing a poll or something, wouldn’t Lewis coming in second be a very major upset?

Not only would it be a very major upset, but it still wouldn't be as very major an upset as MacKay being in 3rd.

It's now tomorrow in Newfoundland. Scheer has lasted another day as leader.

Rumors have been all over the place:

https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/1297725898888683520

Erin O'Toole looking happy:

https://twitter.com/michellerempel/status/1297746730948075520

Whoever wins, an early-morning victory speech is never a good omen. Just ask George McGovern.

Ugh, this is agony. They know the result of the instant runoff. Why are they dragging it out announcing every province and each round?

1st Ballot:
Peter MacKay - 11,328.55 points - 33.52%
Erin O'Toole - 10,681.40 points - 31.60%
Leslyn Lewis - 6,925.38 points - 20.49%
Derek Sloan - 4,864.67 points - 14.39%

This is an absolutely dismal nightmare scenario for MacKay. Unless Sloan breaks entirely for Lewis, O'Toole has this.

Come on O’Toole

Derek Sloan got 4,864 points, which is less than the amount that either MacKay (5,573) or O'Toole (6,220) still need to win, so this'll be going to a final 3rd ballot.

In any event, an O'Toole victory is a horrific result for CPC unity & the party's chances of winning an election anytime soon. MacKay is gonna be denied the leadership despite winning 7 out of 10 provinces (including Ontario), plus the territories, & O'Toole is very likely to win despite only winning Alberta & Quebec, both of which are pretty irrelevant to whether the CPC can win another election.

Red Tories & centrist voters that'll actually decide the election are gonna abandon the CPC in droves & just hold their nose & vote for Trudeau again. The CPC is seriously about to vote in another Andrew Scheer. Never underestimate the ability of this party to shoot themselves in the foot.

So yeah, tonight cements another victory for the LPC, because the CPC won't be making any meaningful gains under O'Toole. Hell, Trudeau could take after his father & go majority-minority-majority, especially with the pandemic polling.

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

Imagine looking at the 2019 election results & thinking that the CPC drifting further right is the best move for them.

2nd Ballot:
Erin O'Toole - 11,903 points - 35.22%
Peter MacKay - 11,756 points - 34.78%
Leslyn Lewis - 10,140 points - 30.00%

3rd Ballot:
Erin O'Toole - 19,271.74 points - 57.02%
Peter MacKay - 14,528.26 points - 42.98%

Erin O'Toole has been elected to serve as the 3rd Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada & the Leader of the Official Opposition.

Quebec is the problem and the problem is Canada knowtows to them fat too much

Damn, literally if Lewis just spoke French a little bit better, she might've won. If I were her, then I'd be spending the next 4 years learning French, becoming an MP in a safe riding (O'Toole will probably wanna reward her anyway), & creating a profile for myself like Poilievre did so she can run to be Leader again in the next leadership race.

She definitely has a real future in the party.

()

Good lord, O'Toole nearly got 60%! It almost makes me wonder what the future of the party is. Evidently, MacKay was too left-wing for the Tory grassroots (granted, his campaign didn't do him any favours). But aside from that, I think the real issue is that an O'Toole victory is doubling down on the grievance campaign they ran last time, and which I really cannot see going well next time.

That's certainly a ... take.

Truth be told, the Cons didn't have any good options for appealing to Quebec this time around. Maybe in 5-10 years when some of Legault's lieutenants run federally and bring some authentic local support along with them?

In the mean time, this is probably the best news Trudeau could have hoped for.

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

Not being able to beat Trudeau is an inherently bad result for the Tories, though.

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

Anyway, the victory speech from O'Toole wasn't bad. Perhaps he does indeed get that it's simply not enough to slag Trudeau, & that he'll need to present a credible alternative? I'm just not sure how you do that when so much of the party base is out of sync with a large majority of Canadians. What tonight showed is that the roots of social conservatism are still alive in the party, & with that in mind, Trudeau is probably very happy with this result.

Follow-up because oh my god, Lewis actually won the *MOST* amount of votes (https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf) on the 2nd ballot: Lewis 60,316, O'Toole 56,907, MacKay 54,165. If anything, that's the most interesting number tonight. I'm calling it now: she's the next CPC leader.

I'd call it exurban. But, yeah, not representative of the rest of the GTA.

Watching the speech O'Toole seems to be a step up from Scheer who was too much of a "social conservative from the Prairies", and will likely play better in eastern Canada, delivering a more somewhat efficient vote rather than piling up huge pluralities in AB/SK.  But the country has shifted leftward and it's hard to see a Conservative path to victory at this point.  Large margins to reverse in the ridings of southern Ontario and not just the GTA.  

Riding-level results:

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

His performances in the seat have not been particularly impressive at any election he's stood in, either.

1.Erin O'Toole is clearly more intelligent than Andrew Scheer.  He is definitely a step up, and I don't think the Liberals can expect the same gaffes from O'Toole that came from Scheer that undermined the first half of the election campaign and allowed the Liberals to claim Scheer had a secret agenda.  

2.Erin O'Toole won by not criticizing Leslyn Lewis and Derrick Sloan and by seeking them out as allies.  In his speech he criticized both Jagmeet Singh and the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois (I'm not sure if he mentioned Yves Francois Blanchette.)  I could be reading too much into this, and he could change his mind, but in so far as he needs both the Bloc and the NDP to bring down the Liberals, I think this is an early indication he doesn't want an election right now.

3.In not criticizing Lewis and Sloan and in seeking them out as allies, the social conservatives will have expectations from him and he didn't even mention social conservative issues in his victory speech other than a mild boiler plate about wanting a Canada for everybody (including non-believers.)  I don't think it will be long before some social conservatives become disgruntled with him.

I would agree with that take (especially the last bit). Frankly, I would not be shocked in the least if O'Toole pulled a Patrick Brown and suddenly reverted back into his 2017 self (or further!). Even still, I have a little bit of difficulty picturing him actually winning an election, and I do think MacKay was their best leader electability wise. But yeah, definitely an improvement on Andrew Scheer.

He clearly owes his leadership to the socons, so they will naturally expect some concessions. The question is how much. Small sample size, but for me and the other Lewis voters I know, this election was primarily about sending a message to people like Peter MacKay that they can't push us around or out of the party. For people thinking like that, I can't imagine expectations are that high... again, that's a small sample size. I don't know what other socon voters, especially Sloan ones are thinking.

Given our overall political standing, I don't care what O'Toole does campaign-wise so long as socons have a seat at the table, and he throws me a couple policy bones. He best start looking through the socon playbook, and find one or two relatively centre-friendly policies to use (maybe child benefits, or support for homeschooling in an age of COVID?)

Agreed. The benefit of O'Toole, is not that he's some GTA juggernaut, it's that he's culturally Anglo-Eastern, in a party that's gotten too West-centric. Independent of specific policy plays, the party spent way too much time last election  talking up issues for one region that was already in the bag.

Lord knows how alienating it would be if the party picked MacKay and he spent the whole campaign talking about Maritime issues and the lobster industry, but that's kind of how it felt as an Easterner last time :P

Considering what and where he represents and when he's represented it, O'Toole hasn't been *that* bad at assembling a coalition of voters--except in 2011-type circumstances, the outer GTA isn't exactly a place where one expects Prairie-scale solid-majority Conservative landslides.

But yes, Durham is more of a "rurban" riding, even if more urban with each redistribution--sort of an east-GTA version of Carleton relative to Ottawa or Flamborough-Glanbrook relative to Hamilton.  (Which'd make two consecutive rurban leaders for CPC, in fact)

One thing that's helped O'Toole get relatively cozy margins by urbanish Ontario standards is a weak local Liberal infrastructure--perhaps a carryover from Oshawa's Lib-NDP split--but growth (particularly in N Oshawa, judging from 2019 results) definitely favours the Libs, and I can picture a post-O'Toole Durham flipping much like Whitby did post-Flaherty, particularly if places like Port Perry/Scugog get distributed away

Another weird thing to consider: O'Toole is a year and a month *younger* than Justin, though he looks much older.  (And one can definitely see the Cons spinning that to their anti-Justin/anti-Peter Pan advantage)

In fairness, the CPC has North Korean style margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan, so they can definitely afford to alienate them to a decent amount.

Even if the CPC massively collapsed there, who cares that they win rural Alberta with 60% of the vote instead of 85%?

So, is that the end of Peter MacKay's political career? Certainly, I don't think anyone expects him to ever become leader, but is his entire career done now? An interesting thought to consider would be MacKay running in Central Nova as he said he would in the next election and then losing (which I don't think would be that unlikely, the Liberals won it by a good margin in 2019 and their Atlantic Support is holding up according to polling), which would definitely be the end of his career in politics, and a very sorry end at that.

Hair (and lack thereof) matters.

Trudeau also just has a more boy-ish face, I suppose.

Exactly. Plus, those margins were driven, not just by the Tories, but by the Liberals and NDP actively going out of their way to antagonize Western interests. The Tories have a lot of wiggle room here unless one of the Western seperatist parties manages to take off.

Results by riding are up:

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/

Scroll to the bottom and click "see the full report" (pdf warning)

MacKay really is the most incredibly dismal politician isn't he.

He assumed the succession was his by right and fought the most complacent campaign imaginable, I am hearing? Can't think of any other recent examples where that approach has gone wrong, at all :P

It's interesting how some well-meaning but ill-informed progressives projected "hope" on Leslyn Lewis due to the face value of her race, educational background and articulation--yet her strongest nodes tended to have a Bible Belt tinge like Niagara West, or much of rural Western Canada.  (And the sheer numbers of so-disposed card-carrying voters might explain why she was first on the second ballot in terms of votes-not-points--it's a little like Scheer's being ahead of Trudeau in 2019 votes thanks to his plumped gigamajorities in the West.)

Another observation: MacKay seems to have done particularly well in ridings with a significant South Asian base (in Brampton and Surrey most notably, and also discernable in places like NE Calgary)

Final round map
()


The ethnic vote is always interesting in Conservative leadership elections, considering unlike most right wing parties in the world, they actually do well with minorities. Interesting to see that Chinese Canadians didn't go strongly one way or the other; it seems it went for O'Toole with the same margins as White Canadians.

Great map. Are you going to do a first round map as well?

I made a quick one last night on Twitter, but there were a few errors. I made this one for Wikipedia, but there's an editor who's arguing with me because they arbitrarily chose brown and purple for O'Toole and MacKay, and I am not using those colours.

But again: it's more distinct with Indo-Canadians--notice the deep shades of MacKay red in Brampton and in Surrey.

Yeah, I know. My point was the Chinese vote wasn't as distinct as the Indo-Canadian vote.  Did no one bother to do any outreach with them? Last time they backed SoCon candidates, this time, not as much.

I don't see MacKay still running for a seat in the next election, no. Central Nova has a popular Liberal incumbent in Sean Fraser, & I can't see an O'Toole-led CPC gaining traction in the Maritimes: the Liberals lost the overall popular vote in 2019 by 1.1% & they still managed to win Central Nova by 17%, so MacKay would struggle to overcome that Liberal strength, especially since the Liberals are now more popular today than they were in 2019. Besides, he's had a cushy private sector job for 5 years now anyway.

I disagree. Alberta Saskatchewan yes. However you're forgetting the crown jewel of the west in BC. Many ridings are close here and the fact that tories unlike toronto can win suburban vancouver ridings some of them narrowly, a western separatist party plus ppc is really really dangerous for the party.

There's also the "where would Leslyn Lewis run?" question--and for all the hoopla over her, there's no guarantee that *she'd* have sufficient Liberal-giant-killing star power, either.  (Though in a weird way, I have this notion of her running in Etobicoke North on Doug Ford's coattails.  I'm not saying it'd be a *winning* sort of big; more a reflection of where the Conservative mindset is at)

Yes, but does suburban Vancouver have any interest in western separatism? The local economy doesn't have very much in common with Calgary's.

Presumably, O'Toole would just parachute her into a safe riding. Which one, who knows?

My guess is MacKay doesn't run - but who knows?

Atlantic Canada is certainly a Liberal fortress, but O'Toole's "Anglo-Eastern-ness" and appeals to Eastern cultural conservatism plays better than Saskatchewanian Scheer could play better there.  Presenting himself as a friend of the working man, defender of traditional cultural symbols such as Sir John A. Macdonald, his military background etc.

In some ways O'Toole comes across as a "Diefenbaker Tory" in 2020 form.  

Here's the first round:

()

What do Rainy River, Kitchener Centre and Bourassa have in common? Beats me!

Harper was very capable of straddling the east/west divide, and O'Toole seems quite capable of this as well.

In 2008, Harper was able to get to near-majority territory winning New Brunswick, non-GTA Southern Ontario and BC.  But it's more difficult to recreate that coalition today.  The Lower Mainland of BC and Ottawa for example are voting a lot more like the GTA now. 

Quebec was always weak under Harper - but today the Liberals are much stronger there.

Furthermore, the millennial generation is a big voting bloc now and the Liberals really have strong support among the university-educated and in ethnocultural communities.

So what happened in Quebec? Why did O'Toole do so good there? Most analysis before last night predicted MacKay would be stronger there.

Genuinely nothing. I'm oddly charmed.

That's because everybody forgets that CPC members in Quebec are so different from (& so few compared to) the average Quebecois voter that they're not at all representative of what Quebec would really want.

For instance, O'Toole won the Laurier-Sainte-Marie riding last night. It's a Quebec Solidaire stronghold, so at 1st glance, this would seem quite baffling. But when you check how many CPC members there are in Laurier-Sainte-Marie, it starts to make sense: 41(!), & I'd venture a lot of them might be uprooted English Canadians. In 2019, the CPC candidate in that riding came 5th with only 2.82% of the vote. And that ain't a one off. The CPC was also 5th in the riding in 2008, 2006, & 2004, despite that being back when the NDP had next-to-no presence in Quebec & the Greens weren't even a party with an MP yet. In 2000, the PCs placed 6th because the Marijuana Party came 4th. The last time a conservative party did better than 4th was 1997, when the PCs came 3rd.

Basically, everybody forgot that appealing to people in Quebec ≠ appealing to CPC members in Quebec.

Why did Sloan overperform?

Very surprised at how well Leslyn Lewis did. She certainly has a bright future in the Conservative Party, probably a future leader.

Though it's hard to think of the kind of "safe riding" where she'd be a good fit.  (Oshawa?)

For better or worse, we're at a point where Conservative leadership stars might not actually have that much star-quality half-life beyond the closed loop of Conservative politics.  Or if she has a "bright future", it's more a reflection of the kind of party it is, than of the kind of bright-future figurehead she might be...

SoCons gonna SoCon.


Yeah, Lewis honestly had a huge victory here, if not the final victory.


Tbf, she doesn't have to be a good fit for such a given riding's voters nevertheless casting their votes for the CPC. A safe riding is "safe" for a reason.

Perhaps SoCons who were too racist to vote for Lewis; or, the "PPC Lite" types of voters (how much Bernier '17/Sloan '20 crossover might there have been?).

But I'm wondering whether Sloan winning Thunder Bay-Rainy River has anything to do with that being home turf for controversial Senator Lynn Beyak (would she have been in a position to influence voting?)


Even so, Canada's a much more awkward place for parachuted outsiders than, say, the UK.

Somehow, I can't sense the "get Leslyn Lewis in ASAP" urgency here--or if anything, I can see her making the leap to *provincial* politics, where there's many more compatible presently-held Conservative GTA seats and she'd likely be a cinch for a Ford cabinet...

Eh, I don't see it being too awkward for her, if it even is at all. Chrystia Freeland was parachuted from abroad into Toronto Centre, Joe Clark (by then both the former PM & the once - & still future - Calgary Centre MP) parachuted into Kings-Hants, Kellie Leitch of Winnipeg was parachuted into Simcoe-Grey, & none other than Andrew Scheer of Ottawa was parachuted into Regina-Qu'Appelle. If it's a safe riding, people don't care.

Compared to what, polling? Lewis overperformed too. Social conservatives are less likely to answer polls. In 2017, the issue was that many social conservatives were from minority communities, and so there was language and cultural barriers to polling them. However, this time the results don't show minorities backing Sloan or Lewis to the extent they did Trost and Lemieux in 2017. Based on the maps, it looks like Chinese Canadians backed O'Toole to a moderate degree, and Indo-Canadians gave MacKay some large margins. So, I'm not sure what the issue is this time. Maybe even White social conservatives don't answer polls?

I also see little evidence that Black Canadians - perhaps the most loyal Liberal demographic in the country - really took part or embraced Leslyn Lewis.

Isn't it also the case that O'Toole speaks much better French than MacKay or Lewis? I could see that mattering more in practice than naive ideological considerations.

Yeah, actually having a grasp of the French language certainly doesn't hurt one's appeal to people in Quebec.

Some electoral districts outside of Atlantic Canada with a high "religious right" percentage (I used "other Christian" + Baptist + Pentecostal as a proxy measure).  2011 NHS data.

Ontario

Kitchener-Conestoga  26.6%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  24.5%
Chatham-Kent-Leamington  24.4%
Niagara West  24%
Perth-Wellington  23%
Haldimand-Norfolk  22.7%
Oxford  21%

Manitoba

Portage-Lisgar  47.5%
Provencher  41.6%

Saskatchewan

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek  25.7%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands  22.2%

Alberta

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner  30%
Lethbridge  29.4%
Peace River-Westlock  25.9%
Red Deer-Lacombe  23.3%
Red Deer-Mountain View  22.4%
Foothills  22.2%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie  21.7%

British Columbia

Abbotsford  34.9%
Chilliwack-Hope  28.8%
Langley-Aldergrove  25%
North Okanagan-Shuswap  21.7%
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies  21.2%
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon  20.6%

Can’t say that I expected my new home riding (Kitchener-Conestoga) to have a higher % religious right than my old riding (Oxford) at all.

Perhaps in the case of K-C, those who fall within the statistical-category proxy are more "ancestral" than ideological and likelier to be affected by the moderating influence of suburban K-W?  (Plus, some of the deeper Mennonite sects are notorious for low turnout.)


Anyway, I added up the vote totals for those Ontario seats alone

Round 1: Lewis 2213, MacKay 1308, O'Toole 1392, Sloan 1487
Round 2: Lewis 3273, MacKay 1357, O'Toole 1625
Round 3: MacKay 1695, O'Toole 3386

And the *total* votes for those seven seats is just a touch above half of those for the 25 Toronto seats.

And also, I'm wondering if there's a "Rob Ford in reverse" argument on behalf of Leslyn Lewis--that is, just as Rob Ford (and Doug by extension) had a nonwhite/ethnoburban core following that belied his white-trash facade, Leslyn Lewis had a white-evangelical core following that belied her ethno-diverse facade.  (And which led a *lot* of armchair observers to misconstrue where their respective true strengths--or weaknesses, for that matter--would lie)

I'd also throw out there that the census "Other Christian" category is very messy. Per my review of the detailed breakdown of what groups and their #'s, "Other Christian is mostly Evangelical sects but it also includes non-Evangelical groups like Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, a few mainline Protestantish groups and generic "Christian" people.

It's still a perfectly fine rough metric (it's not like I expect Kensington to manually tally 20+ Evangelical groups by riding :P), but the noise in the metric may account for some of the oddities like K-C.

Some hypotheses:

1) Pollsters are letting a significant amount of non-members into their samples, which degrades their polls into name recognition polls. Socon candidates are mostly low profile (except Jason Kenney I guess) and therefore underpoll.

2) Some conservative Christian groups, while participating in politics, are pretty insular in general (e.g. Dutch Reformed, Mennonite). People like that would vote in leadership races but not answer polls.

3) Conservative Chrisians in general are feeling pretty embattled, Canadian ones in particular, and are therefore answering polls in a more 'socially acceptable' manner.

Thoughts?

Probably has to do with a large Amish population. I don't think they vote in Conservative leadership elections.

Maybe. You'd know better than me. I do know that Mainstreet attempted to weight for social conservatives, so in all likelihood, Sloan and Lewis supporters were even less represented in the sample. If they weighted it to 15% (Trost+Lemieux, first round in 2017), you can see where they would have a problem. Also, trying to identify who is social conservative is another issue.

It's admittedly an imperfect (proxy) measure - but that's the most detail I can get at the riding level.

Not all "other Christians" are the same.  Dutch Canadians in Niagara region and the Mennonites of southern Manitoba are more involved in politics than the strict Amish communities in Waterloo for example.  

This measure likely overestimates social conservatism in the Maritimes and perhaps underestimates Saskatchewan.  I suspect there's a lot of "ancestral" Baptists in the Maritimes - reflecting New England English ancestry, plus MacKay really dominates there, so I didn't bother tallying those ridings up.  In Saskatchewan, only two ridings have over 20% on this proxy measure.

Kitchener Centre was the seat of Stephen Woodworth, whose single issue was abortion, may have had effects in the composition of the riding association (and may explain how a 2008 Harper seat is now a Liberal-Green fight).

Which is why I referred to it in terms of "statistical-category proxy".  And you'd probably find such overrepresentation wherever there's a heavy demographic contingent of those of "Germano-Netherlandish Protestant" background--and cultural urban/suburbanization has rendered the Waterloo Region version thereof more ideologically flexible: (politically) Promiscuous Oktoberfesters, so to speak.

Re social conservatives and polling: I wonder how much of the issue these days is that active, leadership-voting Conservative membership is being "sorted" in that direction more rapidly and thoroughly than pollsters have been accounting for.  (Similar "sorting" underlies registered Republicanism in the States, which is why Trump approval among that cohort remained cultishly high even at the worst of times--those who didn't approve, withdrew their registration.)

Ironically, Woodworth was an ex-Liberal (he ran in Waterloo in 1988).  And it's also worth pointing out that provincially, Laura Mae Lindo won Kitchener Centre for the NDP by a landslide in 2018--so whichever way you slice it, it'd seem as if KC's terminally strayed from its onetime Con-compatible bellwether status.  (As far as the Greens go, though, 2019's race really had to do more with Mike Morrice's star power, so it's far from certain that it portends a Guelph-style "Green shift", as opposed to a Morrice-Lindo progressive-crossover dynamic)

And I mentioned how riding-association-composition *might* explain Rainy River as well, if Senator Lynn Beyak had anything to do with it.

Speaking of Derek Sloan, I earlier dropped the notion of Oshawa as a potential "Leslyn Lewis parachute riding"--it dawned on me that Oshawa also happens to be the headquarters of the Seventh Day Adventist Church of Canada, and the home of the SDA-affiliated Kingsway College which Sloan once attended.  So, who knows...

I think she would be daft to run in Etobicoke North. Yes it's Ford country, but it's also a riding that the Liberals won by over 10 points in their 2011 collapse, and by 39.2pts last year. Not to mention, Doug Ford has said he won't even campaign for the CPC in the next election, so that will hurt anyone trying to ride his coattails.

Bruce Stanton (Simcoe North) and Diane Finley (Haldimand-Norfolk) will not be running for the next election. Both are solid Conservative ridings, and interestingly Haldimand-Norfolk was one of the few seats east of Saskatchewan that voted for her on the first ballot. The only problem is she lives in Markham, which is 1.5 hours away from Simcoe North and 3 hours away from Haldimand-Norfolk. Or she could uproot her family and move to one of those areas, but it's not clear that she actually wants to do that.

I think what's most likely is that she runs somewhere in Markham or elsewhere in the York Region. Markham-Stouffville is the only winnable Markham riding with a Liberal incumbent, so she might try there. If she wants a safer option near home, she could try Richmond Hill.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1298097602932748289?s=20

First poll with O'Toole as leader isn't exactly a great sign for the Tories - this sort of thing isn't a death knell for a persons leadership and shouldn't be looked at in that way but you don't want your leader burying you into a bigger hole than you were in when they get elected.

Way too early to objectively say what impact O'Toole will have but this isn't a good sign for any potential leadership bounce. In fact, this is the opposite of a bounce & it doesn't seem to a direct result of the WE scandal wearing off on the Liberals or anything.

Tbh, I'm still just mesmerized by that circus from the other night at the CPC shindig. I wonder if that sort of thing could also factor into killing any sort-of new leader bump. I don't think they're gonna be growing that tent any time soon with the "Take Back Canada" shtick.

If O'Toole wants to parachute her into a GTA riding, the dirty Shwa' isn't the best option. The NDP regularly comes close there, and the Liberals usually aren't too far behind. Colin Carrie knows how to win Oshawa because he's done it six times now, it would be a new riding for Lewis and could cause an upset.

If we're talking safe GTA seats, why not Thornhill? It's closer to where she lives, it's a safe seat, and the incumbent Peter Kent is now 77.

She ran in Scarborough-Rouge Park in 2015 - the riding that had the highest Liberal vote share in the last federal election.

She was parachuted into Scarborough-Rouge Park after the previous candidate was kicked off the ticket for being caught on camera peeing in a homeowner's coffee mug.

But yeah there's no way she's running there again. She didn't run in Scarborough Rouge Park hoping to win, she was just a CPC activist that Harper threw onto the ticket because he needed someone to run there.

I realize Peter Kent isn't Jewish, but I reckon the Tories would rather find a Jewish candidate to replace him there.

Given that Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre seem to be secure for the Liberals, I wonder if they'll make a serious play for Thornhill? 

I think it's possible, especially if Kent goes. But Thornhill is a better riding for the Tories.

Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre are a bit more mixed. The Bathurst corridor is heavily Jewish and well-off, but once you get west of Allen Rd you hit lower income communities, predominantly Italian, Filipino, and Black. Thornhill is more broadly higher income and whiter, making it less of a natural LPC seat. Not just that, but Thornhill has also been strongly CPC on a provincial level, where the Israel issue has no relevance. But we shall see.

True, a Jewish candidate gives you an instant advantage in the Yonge-Bathurst corridor. But it's a strong enough CPC riding that Lewis could still keep it. Certainly more likely to win there than elsewhere in York Region.

The problem for a black/Caribbean tory like Lewis is that there's no real right-leaning riding with a significant Caribbean population. I'm sure she could get a demographic bump in the likes of Scarb-Rouge and York South Weston, but those places are titanium LPC short of a landslide like 2018 provincial. Her (and my) native York Region has significant pockets of Chinese-Canadians (Richmond Hill and west Markham), South Asians (east Markham and increasingly Vaughan), Jews and Persians (Thornhill, Richmond Hill), Italians (Woodbridge), and WASPs (Aurora-Newmarket). No real Caribbean/Jamaica/general black bloc, however.

Black Canadians are probably the loyalest Liberal demographic in the country.

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Note that when I mentioned Etobicoke North earlier, it was with a bit of "knowing them" sarcasm directed at the Cons, rather than as a realistic target.


Also don't forget the York-Simcoe far north of Georgina and East Gwillimbury--the most ancestrally solid "Old Stock Canadian Conservative" part of the riding.  (Or for that matter, the pockets of well-heeled WASPiness in Old Markham and Whitchurch-Stouffville where Jane Philpott found most of her indy strength last year.)

And incidentally, I know Oshawa isn't the best option from a raw "safety" level; but it *is* incumbent, and the repeated ability to prevail over a rare-for-the-905 split-opposition circumstance has a way of generating its own infrastructural strength (remember: they nearly took it back provincially in 2018 after their spectacular upset by the NDP in 2014).  And as I pointed out re Kingsway College and SDA, there's other right-boosty undercurrents here, while Toronto's Afro/Caribbean diaspora has been palpably inching into Durham Region so it might not seem *that* much of a stretch.  And of course, none other than the national leader is next door, bordering the riding on two of its three landward sides.  So Oshawa might not be ideal if the  Cons want something absolutely rock solid; but it wouldn't be implausible from a firming-their-base standpoint...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

2018 Ontario being the exception.  It looks like the NDP did well among Black voters.  Look at YSW poll by poll for example - Weston-Mount Dennis is orange vs. the Italian neighborhoods swung heavily to Ford; heavily Black areas in Rouge Park also went NDP it seemed, but for Mitzie Hunter in Guildwood).  Of course the PCs overperformed with Ford as well.

Federally meanwhile the top performing Liberal ridings and most heavily Black ridings overlap significantly.

Result for social conservative candidates (votes cast and points, 1st ballot):

ONTARIO

Oxford  (1411) 70.23
Niagara West (1039)   65.92
Haldimand-Norfolk (726)  56.6
Perth-Wellington (813)  54.48
Kitchener-Conestoga (761)  51.11
Chatham-Kent-Leamington (718)  49.86
Elgin-Middlesex-London (943)  44.96

WEST

Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK (1267)  70.23
Chilliwack-Hope BC (1166)  69.12
Provencher MB (691) 68.3
Peace River-Westlock AB (1049)  65.58
Portage-Lisgar MB (692)  64.45
Lethbridge AB (1554)  63.89
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek SK (691)  63.37
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner AB (1314)  59.2
Grand Prairie-Mackenzie AB (1175) 58.55
Langley-Aldergove BC (1246)  58.26
Red Deer-Lacombe AB (1178)  55.43
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon BC (732)  52.86
Abbotsford BC (929)  51.23
Red Deer-Mountain View AB (1404)  49.06
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies BC (732) 47.67
North Okanagan-Shuswap BC (1035)  46.65
Foothills AB (2079)  41.02

Remarkable how Lewis led the popular vote on the second ballot. Imagining her as leader seems as unlikely and surprising as imaging Trump as the nominee in 2015 (no intention to compare the two at all).

Again, it's a reflection of where the critical Conservative leadership-voting blocs exist in this day and age.  And for perspective's sake, there were fewer *total* first-round voters in the Ile de Montreal *at large* (and even that total was vestigially plumped within the "white Anglo establishment" electorate) than there were social conservative voters in the single riding of Foothills.

This is bound to lead to some efforts (even if unsuccesful) to abolish the electoral college and move to one member-one vote, isn't it?

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

What are people's thoughts on the Tories' choice?  And do you think O'Toole could actually beat Trudeau or have the Tories just handed Trudeau another win?

My view is MacKay was probably the better choice, but O'Toole not a bad one either.  He lacks charisma but that seems to be less of an issue with their voter pool than it is for Liberals.  He also is more moderate than Scheer or Harper which is a plus.  At same time him running a fairly right wing campaign despite being moderate does give Liberals room to attack.  And more importantly shows a long term problem that membership is well to right of general public meaning if he doesn't win, real risk next leader will be further right and party will remain in opposition until Liberals reach Wynne like approval ratings.

If an election were called today, I don't think O'Toole would stand a chance against Trudeau simply due to Trudeau handling pandemic reasonably well and people fearful Tories would be less generous with help.  But he is moderate and capable enough that if government somehow manages to survive to 2022 or later he might have a chance.

I think Lewis especially if she can improve her French has potential long term.  For MacKay, I think his chances of ever being leader are over.  Unfortunately the base will never accept someone with PC roots showing merger is really more an Alliance takeover than one of equals.  Although with many countries seeing greater polarization, perhaps this was inevitable.  However in Nova Scotia where well liked and Tories are still like old PCs, I think he could win Nova Scotia PC leadership someday and became premier of Nova Scotia.

Again, she's not Jewish. Haldimand-Norfolk is a better fit. Lots of social conservatives, and it will be an open seat. She may have to move, but a small price to pay.

I mean the simplest option if O'Toole really wants her (or any star candidate from the GTA really) in parliament is to just parachute her into a safe seat. Lord knows the Tories have a surplus of those :P


He's the best choice for party unity, which is a sometimes overlooked consideration when pundits look at the Tories. No one really seems to hate the guy.

I'm not convinced by the "Moderate = electable = MacKay is the best choice" logic at all. MacKay has shown himself seriously gaffe prone over the years and his fiscal conservative, social liberal orientation has not been an electoral powerhouse in the West.

Overall, I'd put O'Toole as the underdog against Trudeau, albeit with a reasonable chance to win. More importantly I think his fate will be decided mostly by things outside of his control; how is the economy in 2021/2022, how did the second wave of COVID and the government's response go, did Trudeau commit another major unforced error? Etc etc.

Yes that's a good thought. Really, anywhere in the Dutch Reformed belt in southern Ontario would be a great fit for her. Those folks broke hard for her in the leadership race.

So O’Toole won

Good news for Justin

I think O'Toole is definitely a step up from Scheer, and MacKay is overrated.  That being said getting to something like the Harper '08 map seems increasingly difficult given the liberal trends.

I would say 150 seats is probably the ceiling for the Tories barring a major breakthrough in Quebec.  Only way I see that happening is if O'Toole gets Legault's endorsement which I think is very unlikely.  And we still don't yet know if pandemic just leads to temporary shift left or a permanent leftward shift.  With people losing jobs and needing government support, understandable parties on left are more appealing.  Once vaccine is developed and recovery is complete, will voters return to previous more centrist stance or permanently shift left like US did after Great Depression with FDR's New Deal.  Probably won't have answer to this for a while, but if former Tories probably have good shot in election after next (not next but one after) as Liberals will have been in power for 10 years thus people developing fatigue.  If latter, Tories could be out of office for a very long time and even outside possibility they go the way the Social Credit of Alberta and Union Nationale of Quebec do, that is die off.

Dutch Canadians

Ontario

Niagara West  17%
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex  15%
Oxford  15%
Haldimand-Norfolk  12%
Perth-Wellington  12%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  11%
Huron-Bruce  11%

British Columbia

Chilliwack-Hope  13%
Abbotsford  11%

The suburbs and mid-sized cities of Ontario were a key pillar in the Harper strategy.  Here are the ridings where the Tories were within 10 points of winning last year (vote share and % margin of loss). 

Richmond Hill  43.06%  -0.42
Kitchener-Conestoga  39.03%  -0.71
King-Vaughan  43.2%  -1.79
Bay of Quinte  36.8%  -2.36
Niagara Centre  31.03%  -3.98
Peterborough-Kawartha  34.89%  -4.36
Newmarket-Aurora  37.83%  -5.27
Thunder Bay-Rainy River  29.33%  -5.99
Kanata-Carleton  36.48%  -6.57
Sault Ste. Marie  32.15%  -6.9
Oakville  39.08%  -7.2
Whitby  35.55%  -8.13
Markham-Stouffville  30.6% -8.31
St. Catharines  31.57%  -8.66
Cambridge  30.05%  -9.48

Will O’Toole hold onto Scheer’s Cabinet mostly? And do you guys think he’ll give concessions to both Sloan and Lewis?

What Scheer Cabinet?

The Shadow Ministers, many of whom endorsed MacKay.

He'll be announcing his shadow cabinet next week (https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2021706) (relevant mention is at 4:05 in that linked video).

I don't think there's as much of a gulf btw/ MacKay and O'Toole as there was btw/ Christine Elliott and Doug Ford in Ontario in 2018.  That is, those who endorsed MacKay aren't exactly in a grinning-and-bearing-it/plugging-their-nose situation re O'Toole.

Yes. The main thing I'm looking for is the size of the cabinet. Scheer built that ludicrous sized shadow cabinet after the last election in an effort to win support from caucus. I wonder if O'Toole will keep it that way or cut it down to a normal size?


There aren't really concessions in leadership races per se. Lewis will run in the next election and almost certainly get a cabinet spot if she wins. We socons will get a few bones throne to us if we are in power, but those aren't really concessions per se. Just the status quo of how Canadian politics are done.

The Liberals were a distant third among most demographic groups, to be fair. 2018 Ontario isn't really a good benchmark because it was a PC-NDP race, which is a rarity in both Ontario and federal politics. In a Liberal-CPC dynamic, black voters are overwhelmingly with the Liberals. If I had to pick one racial group that the Liberals won by the biggest margin in 2019, in Ontario or otherwise, it would be black Canadians.

It is a bit difficult to extrapolate the black vote based on election results though, simply because they don't really make up a significant voting bloc in most parts of Ontario. The few black enclaves that do exist are in electoral districts where larger ethnic groups outnumber them (Italians+Portuguese in YSW, Indians in Brampton, Scarborough, and Ajax, white Anglos and Arabs in Ottawa South, and white Francos in Ottawa Vanier). The only Ontario riding where they are the largest ethnic group is HR-BC, and even there, black voters are only a quarter of the population.

Based on the poll-by-poll results in the 2018 ON election, black voters probably voted NDP by a notable margin, with the PCs second and Liberals in third. But I also think it depends on where you look. In Ottawa, for example, I wouldn't be surprised if black voters backed the Liberals ahead of the NDP with PCs in a distant third.

If the Liberals remained buoyant with any group in 2018, it was with Islamic voters--though there, one has to deal with isolated nodes to deduce that fact.  (Even in Cambridge, the "Muslim poll" stood out for its solid support for the otherwise third-place Liberal incumbent.)

Yes, I think Muslims can give Blacks a run for their money as most loyal Liberal voters. Not exactly comparing apples and oranges there, though.


Most likely. Many Blacks in Ottawa are also Muslim, so a double Liberal whammy. Areas with high Black populations like Overbrook, Heron Gate and Carson Meadows all went Liberal.

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

While it's always possible he just wanted to continue to serve, this also raises the possibility that he tested the private business waters & they said "thanks but no thanks."

On one hand, that'd seem strange because it's a natural home for retiring politicians, but then again, what would he bring? He doesn't really have expertise outside of politics, & I can't imagine he was ever charismatic enough to develop a bunch of sought-after contacts. Harper seemed to bring a lot & so he was very desired; if Scheer got hired, it'd seem like somebody's doing him a favor.

Outside of Conservative politics, Stéphane Dion was in cabinet before Trudeau decided to get rid of him.

D'oh. Completely forgot about that.

Don't forget Stockwell Day.  (Or, for that matter, Peter MacKay, even if he never led in a general election)

A bit strange to be discussing the LEAST Conservative constituencies.  Taking the discussion here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327662.0

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/08/26/erin-otooles-ghost-problem/261510

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

I think that is very true and while some have questioned my statement, I firmly believe Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in the Western world.  I think conservatism faces a much bleaker future in Canada than both the past and elsewhere.  I think urbanization, more university educated, plus millennials is helping to create a permanent left wing majority in Canada.

I won't deny the demographic difficulties the Tories face, but "permanent left wing majority"?! Geez louise, that's some strong rhetoric to use about the party that won the popular vote last time.

Look at what happened to the Tories from 1984-1993, or the Liberals from ca 2002-2011. If "The Tories will go from two hundred seats to two in eight years" or the "The Liberals will go from 50% in the polls to a distant third place in ten years" were actually correct predictions, no matter how implausible they seemed at the time, I'm loathe to rule out something as simple as the Tories managing a simple five point swing against a scandal prone government in a poor economy, much less 'permanent' anything.

Things in politics that are asserted to be "forever" have this strange habit of turning out not to be ;)

Scheer has no choice but to remain an MP. The guy has no profession to fall back on. What’s he going to do? Go back to being a junior assistance to an insurance adjuster?

Nothing is forever in politics, but right now Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in developed world.  While future is unpredictable, I do think predicting that Tories will be in opposition for many years to come is not an unreasonable one.  My prediction is Liberals win a majority and Tories fall to under 100 seats, possibly as low as 80 seats.  Public generally aligns with Liberals while dislikes Tories.  After that Trudeau resigns as PM in year 3 and Freeland takes over and wins another majority.  After that she wins again so I think Tories don't come back to office until at least 2030, quite possibly longer.  Also I think party is at least 3 leaders away from next PM, quite possibly more.  Only danger for Liberals is they got too cocky and overplay hand, but I think public loathes Tories so much Liberals can pretty much do whatever they want and win and its just a matter of whether a majority or minority.  Those mentioning party won popular vote forget crisis lead to big shifts.

Pandemic has destroyed conservatism and Western Alienation while it still exists is much weaker than 6 months ago.  In fact one poll showed Albertans prefer Trudeau over Kenney so even Alberta I believe is shifting away from conservatism.  I think Notley has a much better chance of winning next election than does O'Toole and I think NDP will return to power in Alberta well before Tories do federally.

True enough and while unlikely, what happens if he loses his seat?  I think with pandemic, you may see a big shift left that wipes out the Tories even in safe ridings.

Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP: 31.7%. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio) I gather Japan (36%), Netherlands (40%) or Germany (45%) are run by Stalinists then?

Government spending as a percentage of GDP: 40.7%. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_spending_as_percentage_of_GDP) I guess I should tell that one random Rose Twitter dude to move to South Korea (43%) or Austria (48%).


In early September 1993, public generally aligned with Tories and six weeks later gave them all of two seats in parliament.


I'll give you credit here for explaining Justin Trudeau's thought processes (or what I assume they are - it would explain his propensity to constantly dig himself into the most stupid holes).


It has temporarily weakened a certain form of fiscal conservatism. Remember when the FLQ attacks, the 1980 referendum loss, the 1995 referendum loss, the 2007 provincial election and the 2011 federal election destroyed Quebec nationalism? Yeah, I do, and so do the 32 Bloc MPs in the House of Commons. All that happened was that it moderated and changed its messaging, but as long as there is a Quebec, there will be demand for some sort of nationalism. Just the same way that as long as a society exists, there will be demand for some sort of conservatism.

Its true our tax revenues are lower than most, but left is not just about size of government, its also about progressivity of tax system and Canada's tax system is more progressive than most of Europe.  Netherlands and Germany have much higher taxes on middle class, but lower on wealthy or at least top rates comparable to Prairie provinces not rest of Canada (SK and Germany at 47.5%, Alberta 48%, Netherlands 49.5%, Manitoba 50.4%, whereas BC and Ontario are 53.5% while Quebec is 53.3%.   Japan is 55.9% though but due to larger senior's population have to tax more but get less in return).  Left though in Canada is somewhat hypocritical as want bigger welfare state, but only have rich pay for it and unfortunately in Canada there aren't enough rich for this to work, you have to tax middle class like in Europe which Canadian left opposes.

Also there is a thing called inertia as often government programs more a reflection of where median voter was in the past, not today as it takes time for impacts to be seen.  I think in 20 years from now, Canada will have bigger government than those mentioned due to lag factor.

It wasn't that long ago people were writing the Liberal Party's obituary. Especially in a country like Canada, which is so prone to wild swings, I would advise against making long term predictions like that.

Less than a decade ago, in fact.

If Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like "normal" big cities and less for the "party of Alberta" that would be devastating for the Tories.  But I'll believe it when I see it.  That will probably happen only if  the full  "Americanization" of Canadian politics (i.e. almost completely demographic-driven) takes place.

The Liberals also benefit from a fairly weakened NDP, and Trudeau campaigns and governs just progressively enough to bury the NDP vote. 

That would be devastating to Tories short term, but would probably force Tories back towards centre like old PCs long term.  Although with Kenney's low approval ratings, I actually think Kenney might have pushed conservatism a little too far and you may see Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like other cities.  That being said both cities extend out to countryside so it would more like Winnipeg than 416 or Vancouver proper.  Cities like GTA and GVRD, otherwise central parts would go NDP/Liberal all the time, while suburban parts along periphery would be bellwethers.

It could well be the case by e-day, as it's so often been (and throw the Green vote into that, too).  But one can argue that except in 2011 (and in Western Canada in the 80s), the federal NDP has *always* been "fairly weakened"--in fact, with Leger currently showing them at 21%, the NDP's actually holding up quite well by traditional standards.  (But of course, come whatever moment that O'Toole shows signs of catching on, watch the Libs bid to cannibalize that support yet once again)

I should note that Canadian Conservatives are distinct, in the sense that a key thing uniting them is an agreement about the oil & gas industry. At some point, this will cause resentment among the Conservative base and could be the opening for an environmentalist Conservative faction at some point, more out of opposition to a platform focused on that one particular issue than on a real commitment thereof.

But the "sorting" of the Conservative vote may be hurting the NDP's ability to win seats.

Very true as a lot of traditional blue collar areas like Oshawa, Brantford, Essex, Saskatchewan, part of Interior like Cariboo, Kamloops and Kootenay-Columbia are shifting away although this is not unique to Canada, but happening globally.  Niagara Centre actually I think is a low hanging fruit for the Tories and would not be surprised if in near future both provincially and federally they flip this.  On other hand upper middle class areas like North Shore in Lower Mainland, Burlington, and Kanata-Carleton which were once safe Tory seats are now trending Liberal.  Similar to what you are seeing in traditional GOP areas in US like Collar Counties of Chicago and Orange County, California which once used to be solid GOP but now lean Democrat.  Also seeing this in UK, with well to do areas in London no longer Tory strongholds like they once were, but offset but gains in North and Midlands.

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

Yeah, it really threw me for a loop that the NDP lost 5-10% in ridings like University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park, and Ottawa Centre last year. It's not like voters there needed to vote Liberal to keep the Tories from winning those seats. :P

Lack of incumbents may explain the dropoff but these are some of the most progressive electoral districts in the country.  Hard for the NDP to be viable when they're shut out of Canada's largest city.

And I can't really see Jagmeet pulling off the ca. 2014 "screw those latte-sipping elites I'm focusing on the working class of SW Ontario" type campaign.  

I don't think it should be *that* surprising--remember that until Jagmeet proved to be not-half-bad on the stump, the party practically looked set to be Audreyed.  To the point where their Toronto strategy was basically reduced to a "Andrew Cash Davenport toehold" strategy. 

Thus, such underperformance was more a vestigial reflection of the NDP's depleted infrastructure going into the election.  Those ridings where they were a distant 2nd at 20%--they were poised to be an even more distant 2nd, or 3rd, or even 4th, at the moment the writ was dropped.  Essentially, they went from being Audreyed to being somewhere between Alexa'd and early-Jacked.

Maybe not, but don't entirely rule out some counterintuitive "good faith" support a la Jack Layton, even in an era when blue-collar right-populism seems more impermeable than ever.  But a big imponderable there (and plugging back into this thread's subject matter) would be the Jagmeet vs Erin question--especially presuming that O'Toole's less stigmatized (particularly for being Upper Canadian rather than Western) than Scheer.

Though following from that in the *other* direction (and echoing trends in the US, UK and elsewhere) would be the potential for Conservative inroads in Northern Ontario--and there were even some signals last year (aside from the Kenora takeback) that a future Bishop Aucklanding of the North shouldn't be ruled out (including unexpectedly pipping ahead of the Libs for 2nd in the two remaining NDP-held seats)

Singh is certainly trying to "outdo" Trudeau on both "culture war" and economic issues.  But I suspect voters see the difference between them as differences in degree, not in kind.   

Trinity-Spadina '97 = Davenport '19

He would have to be white and not have a "hipster" persona.

O'Toole makes a direct appeal to the working class vote:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1302991683072798721

This is the route the Tories and most right wing parties in the Anglosphere ought to go. As the left moves upscale, the right will need to consolidate the upper working class/petit bourgeois vote.

Andrew Coyne has already slammed the video, so it's probably a good strategy. I enjoy Coyne's columns but a good judge of electoral winners, he is not :P

O'Toole has released his shadow cabinet. Some notable posts include:

Defence: James Bezan
Finance: Pierre Poilievre
Foreign Affairs: Michael Chong
Health: Michelle Rempel
Industry: James Cumming
Infrastructure: Andrew Scheer
Intergovernmental Affairs: Chris d'Entremont
Justice: Rob Moore
Labour: Mark Strahl

O'Toole seems to be the 2020 version of Diefenbaker Toryism.

Yass Queen!

Unlike the tone-deaf Scheer, O'Toole seems like an astute observer of politics.  This message should play well in places like Niagara, Sault Ste. Marie, Cape Breton. 

The problem is the anti-Conservative trend and the juggernauts of suburban GTA and Lower Mainland - a lot harder to win now than a decade ago.

Overall, pretty decent (if perhaps unsurprising) picks by O'Toole. Not a cabinet-in-waiting by any means, but a pretty decent Opposition line-up.

Steve Paikin interviews Erin O'Toole:

https://www.tvo.org/video/erin-otoole-canadas-new-conservative-party-leader

Most people would compared to him tbf ;)

Scheer is Stockwell Day-bad

Erin O'Toole strikes me as being on the surface bland, but with a certain disarming charm.  Beyond that, he seems to be highly intelligent, and comfortable with himself, unlike the bizarre and obnoxious Justin Trudeau.

Erin O'Toole seems to be by a fair bit the Conservative Party's best asset, but his very weak bench is a big problem for me.  Pierre Polievre as Finance Minister?  Michelle Rempel Garner as Health Minister? I'd still take Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over that.

Well, no one will be able to accuse him of not going after the NDP's working class demographic.

The National Post published an article on Labour Day quoting a number of conservative thinkers on how the Conservative Party should go after union members and even seek the endorsement of unions.

These thinkers pointed out that unions play an essential role in providing a counterbalance to wealthy interests and that unions can provide social stability by achieving higher pay for workers.  They also point out that unions play a major role in social society by assisting charities and other non-profits.

To the degree that modern conservatives genuinely embrace stability, I think they make some important points why Conservative Party should seek the support of unions.

In the Canadian context, the ban on corporate and union donations has reduced, though far from eliminated, the influence of corporations in Canada.  Corporate executives may be very wealthy, but they don't combine for a lot of votes.

The problem I see for the Conservatives is that the small business owners collectively seem to be more anti union than large corporate executives in Canada and there are a lot of small business owners.  The Canadian Federation of Independent Business seems to be a very powerful player in the Canadian Conservative Party.

Interestingly, in New Brunswick, one of the star Progressive Conservative candidates is one of the top trade unionists in Canada.

The same riding we predicted. She's a good fit for the riding (except for the fact it's less than .5% Black, which I don't think is that relevant).

Does she have any personal connection whatsoever to the riding or would she be a total "parachute" - not that voters would necessarily punish her for that

Part of the socially conservative "Dutch belt" of SW Ontario.

It makes total sense she would run in rural Ontario.  There are no "natural fits" in the GTA. 

It's an unfortunate thing about FPTP. If you're a Toronto Tory, rural Alberta Liberal etc, you have to choose between running where you have a local connection and where you can actually win.

At least in Lewis' case, her leadership base should blunt the risk of a serious local challenge.

True although Tories should have run her in 905 belt since if they cannot gain seats there, they are not forming government.  Rural Ontario is going to go Tory no matter what so while agree Scarborough-Rouge Park probably isn't winneable for Tories, a riding like Whitby which is nearby would have made more sense.  Not saying Tories will win there, but that is the type of riding they need to gain in if they wish to form government.