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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: jaichind on January 04, 2020, 07:25:48 pm



Title: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2020, 07:25:48 pm
Delhi assembly elections expected in Feb 2020
J&K assembly elections now that it has become an Union territory with Ladakh bifurcated will have to be sometime in mid 2020.
Bihar assembly elections most likely Oct 2020.  


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 04, 2020, 07:28:41 pm
No polls yet for Delhi assembly elections but the CW is that if it is going to be fought on local issues AAP will have the edge versus BJP having the edge if national issues predominate and Modi will play a key role.

https://www.latestly.com/india/politics/delhi-assembly-elections-results-2020-predictions-by-satta-bazaar-matka-players-bet-high-on-aap-returning-to-power-no-good-news-for-bjp-and-congress-1446308.html

The Delhi betting markets now currently have it at

AAP 54-56
BJP 11-13
INC  3-4

I suspect BJP will do better than that given that pre-election polls and betting markets tend to overestimate the incumbent if there is not large pro-incumbent wave which is more rare.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2020, 04:28:05 pm
Delhi election date set.  Election will be on Feb 8th and counting will be on Feb 11th

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Delhi_Legislative_Assembly_election


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2020, 04:38:16 pm
First polls out shows AAP landslide

IANS-CVoter poll

           Seats     Vote share
AAP       59            53%
BJP         8             26%
INC         3              5%

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I suspect this poll exaggerates the AAP lead.  Also if these are the vote share numbers then the AAP most likely will win 67 (like in 2015) or even 70 out of 70 seats.  But the poll for sure show that AAP is in good position to win re-election


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2020, 04:41:48 pm
In many ways the BJP in Delhi now have the "INC disease"  The issue here is should BJP project a CM candidate as an alternative to Delhi AAP CM Arvind Kejriwal.  If you do not then you are just counting on Modi to fetch the votes which proved ineffective in the various 2019 assembly elections.  If you project a BJP CM candidate there are several BJP factions within Delhi and projecting one of the faction leaders as CM candidate would lead to revolt from other BJP faction leaders.  Bring in someone from the outside will anger local BJP cadres.  This situation is similar to the INC dilemma in many states.  Now BJP have the same problem and now BJP is now stuck and how to handle the CM candidate issue.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 06, 2020, 11:13:03 pm
One reason why the BJP LS Delhi landslide in 2019 was not going to produce a BJP victory in the 2020 assembly elections was that even in 2019 LS elections post-election surveys shows that only 58% of the 2019 LS BJP vote planned to vote BJP in assembly elections.

CSDS Delhi post-election survey

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If you take the CSDS post-election survey and computed support for assembly elections it comes out to

AAP 34.0
BJP  33.5
INC  14.5

It seems that there was a further swing against the BJP

Of course I do not buy the Cvoter poll.  I doubt BJP will be lower than 35%.  In 2015 pre-election polls had it at BJP and AAP neck-to-neck so there was a lot of INC->AAP tactical voting.   This time around it is clear that AAP is ahead so some of the 2015 INC vote would flow back to INC from AAP.  I doubt INC will be below 10%  Likewise with CW view that AAP has the edge over BJP the vote for minor parties like BSP and other independents will most likely rise.  Even if polls show AAP well ahead I suspect it is something like

AAP  45%
BJP   35%
INC  10%

which should produce a AAP victory of around 50 seats or so. 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 07, 2020, 03:48:09 pm
Some history of Delhi elections

Delhi has been an Union territory from the beginning

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Delhi had an assembly with a CM in the 1950s but the post was abolished in the late 1950s.  In 1993 the Delhi assembly was reestablished with the post of CM.

For LS elections Delhi tend to be a bellwether for Northern India and swings with the rest of Northern India and often India as a while. Delhi historically have been a 2 party system with INC vs BJP (or proto-BJP BJS).

1977 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               30.15%

JNP             7                 7               68.15%

Anti-INC way carries JNP which is dominated by BJS in Delhi to a landslide victory just like in the rest of Northern India.


1980 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               50.40%

JNP             7                 1               37.90%

JNP(S)+      6                 0                 7.12% (CPI was part of JNP(S))

INC(U)        4                 0                 0.83%

JNP split and INC wave led to a INC landslide which is replicated across rest of Northern India.  What is now BJP still part of JNP at this time



1984 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7               68.72%

BJP+           7                 0               27.38% (LKD and JNP part of BJP+)

Post-Indira Gandhi assassination INC wave crushes combined opposition effort in a massive INC landslide just like the rest of Northern India.



1989 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               43.41%

BJP+           6                 4               32.21% (tactical alliance with JD)

JD              3                 1               16.28% (tactical alliance with BJP+)

BSP            5                 0                 3.65%

Tactical alliance between BJP and JD defeats INC just like the rest of Northern India.


 
1991 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               39.57%

BJP             7                 5                40.21%

JD               7                0                14.21%

BJP surge based on the Hindu consolidation of the Ram Temple movement gives BJP narrow victory over INC.  This election was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination and matches the BJP surge in the rest of Northern India where the vote was held before the Rajiv Gandhi assassination.  


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 12, 2020, 10:53:44 am
In 1993 Delhi was made a UT with an assembly and CM role and the first assembly elections since the 1950s were held.  Given the surge of the BJP in the Hindi heartland over the Ram Temple movement and traditional BJP strength in Delhi it was not a surprise that the BJP won with a significant number of INC rebels adding to the scale of INC defeat as the anti-INC vote clearly shifted to BJP.

1993 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              14               34.48%

INC rebel                        3                 2.55%

BJP              70             40               42.82%

JD               70               4                12.65%

BSP             55               0                 1.88%


The BJP captured the CM spot and was able to build on this victory to a larger vote share victory in the LS elections in 1996 where the INC core vote came out but swamped by the consolidation of the anti-INC vote behind BJP as JD pretty much disappears from the scene in Delhi.

1996 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 2               37.29%

AIIC(T)        7                0                 2.25% (INC splinter)

BJP             7                 5               49.62%

JD+            7                 0                 4.64% (CPI CPM were part of JD+)


JD formed the government at the center backed by INC which broke down by 1998 leading to fresh LS elections.   INC and JD bungling at the federal level clearly helps BJP and mitigate clearly anti-incumbency building up against the BJP at the state level due BJP inter-factional battles which would lead the BJP to change CM both in 1996 and 1998.  The net effect is still a strong BJP victory.

1998 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 1               42.64%

BJP             7                 6               50.73%

JD               5                 0                2.46%

BSP            6                  0                2.34%


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 12, 2020, 11:04:53 am
Even thought clear BJP problems at the state level in Delhi did not translate into defeats in the 1996 and 1998 LS elections for BJP in Delhi the 1998 Delhi assembly would be a different story.  BJP put in a rising superstar Sushma Swaraj last minute as CM to try to save the situation but it was too little too late as rising onion prices and anger at overall BJP ineffectiveness led to a significant defeat.

1998 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              52               47.76%

INC rebel                        2                 4.85%

BJP+            70             15               34.98% (INLD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 1.25%

BSP             55               0                 3.09%

JD               48               1                 1.80%

This defeat meant that up until this date there would not another BJP CM again.   The INC went with old Gandhi clan ally Sheila Diksh**t whose upper caste background was able to help captured disgruntled upper caste BJP votes in the elections.  With the backing of the Gandhi clan she is able to stay atop of the Delhi INC hierarchy over the various INC factions.
 
Another LS election came when the BJP government fell after AIADMK pulled support.  The resulting Modi wave carried BJP to victory in Delhi on the basis of Vajpayee's popularity was able to overcome INC in its honeymoon period in the state government.  

1999 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0               41.96%

BJP             7                7                51.75%

JD(S)          1                 0                 1.39%

BSP            3                 0                 2.24%



Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 13, 2020, 05:11:36 pm
CM Sheila Diksh**t was seen as being successful and an united INC was able to win re-election in 2003 with a tiny swing toward the BJP as the BJP still recovers from its disastrous term in office in 1993-1998.

2003 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              47               48.13%

INC rebel                        0                 0.68%

NCP            33                1                 2.24%

BJP             70              20               35.22%

BJP rebel                        0                 1.46%

BSP+          41               0                  5.95%


The BJP did well in other 2003 assembly elections and called a LS election early in 2004 and was unexpectedly defeated in Delhi and India overall.

2004 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 6               54.81%

BJP             7                 1                40.67%

BSP            7                 0                 2.48%

The anti-BJP vote in Delhi looks like consolidated behind INC.  The shock BJP defeat across India led to an UPA regime coming to power at the federal level.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 13, 2020, 05:17:31 pm
For 2008 Delhi assembly elections there were some anti-incumbency against the INC, especially with its Dalit base but INC managed to win re-election as most of those votes went to BSP and not BJP.

2008 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70              43               40.31%

NC rebel                         0                 0.87%

NCP            16                0                 1.38%

BJP+          70              23               36.84% (SAD was part of BJP+)

BJP rebel                        0                 0.44%

BSP            70               2                14.05%


For the 2009 LS election there was as pro-INC wave in part of urban India which included Delhi and saw a landslide victory by INC

2009 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 7                57.11%

BJP             7                 0                35.23%

BSP            7                 0                  5.34%

The UPA won re-election across India in 2009 overall as well.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 14, 2020, 08:18:21 am
The third INC term in Delhi and second UPA term at the federal level were plagued with scandals which provoked anti-corruption protests leading to the formation of AAP which had its center in Delhi.  The 2013 assembly election became a 3 way battle between INC BJP and AAP.  AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal running against INC CM Sheila Diksh**t in her seat galvanized AAP leading them to come in a close second to BJP as INC had a last minute collapse.

2013 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               7               24.71%

INC rebel                       1                 0.97%

BJP+          70              30               34.20% (SAD was part of INC+)

AAP            70              28              29.68%

JD(U)         27                1                0.88%

BSP           69                0                5.38%

Most of the Dalit surge for BSP in 2008 seems to have shifted to AAP.  Post-election to keep out the BJP the INC backed AAP's Arvind Kejriwal for CM but that only lasted for 50+ days until AAP-INC relations collapsed leading to the assembly to be held in suspension as no party could gather a majority. 

The 2014 LS saw AAP try to press its advantage across board in India but especially Delhi given their 2013 success but was buried by the Modi wave.

2014 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                15.22%

BJP             7                 7                46.63%

BSP            7                 0                  1.23%

AAP            7                  0               33.08%

AAP did demonstrate that it was the main rival to BJP in Delhi now and not INC.   When the 2015 Delhi assembly election finally came the AAP was able to consolidate the entire anti-BJP vote and win a massive landslide.

2015 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             70               0                9.69%

BJP+           70               3              32.83% (SAD was part of BJP+)

AAP             70             67              54.55%

BSP            70               0                1.31%

Arvind Kejriwal's AAP was returned to power


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 14, 2020, 08:24:01 am
Post 2015 the Arvind Kejriwal AAP government did manage to disappoint and over time the BJP has shown that it was regaining strength in Delhi.   Worst for AAP for while it seems INC was also becoming active again and taking back some of its base from the AAP.  The 2019 LS election saw some attempt by INC and AAP to form some alliance to stop Modi but collapsed to to egos.  The 2019 saw the second Modi wave and a massive BJP landslide.

2019 Delhi LS election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC             7                 0                22.63%

BJP             7                 7                56.86%

BSP            5                 0                  1.09%

AAP            7                 0                18.20%

AAP being pushed to third place was a shock to the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal.  Post 2019 LS election AAP did a 180 degree turn and shifted away from national politics and toward being the Delhi regional party.  AAP accepting that Modi is popular in Delhi and stopped attacking him but projecting local issues actually worked to the AAP advantage and as the 2020 assembly election approached AAP is seen as having the upper hand especially when the BJP did not seems to be able to come up with a CM candidates given its internal disparage factions.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 14, 2020, 08:28:38 am
VDPA polls on PM Modi approval has Modi doing well in Hindi areas and poorly in Deep South.  Upper South and Assam are sort of OK. AP levels of support is a big jump from last year but Modi doing surprisingly poor in Gujarat.  I guess 24/7 Modi all the time since 2001 will get tiring after 19 years.
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Support for who should be PM still have Modi way at the top.  Given Rahul is in theory exiled from INC leadership 17 is not bad.  Main problem would be for BJP "After Modi, Who?"
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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 14, 2020, 09:21:31 am
https://www.news18.com/news/politics/can-naidu-pawan-kalyan-bonhomie-local-leaders-proposal-see-tdp-janasena-tie-up-ahead-of-local-body-polls-2454789.html

In AP there might be a political realignment where TDP and JSP might from an alliance to take on the YSRCP.  There were talk of TDP perhaps going back to BJP but it was concluded that JSP has a much bigger base in AP than BJP. 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2020, 11:11:59 am
It seems that SAD which got to contest 4 out of 70 seats will be asking for more from BJP this time.  It seems BJP's Haryana ally JJP will also run in Jat areas and is forcing the BJP into alliance talks.  JJP seems to be asking for 10 seats which is clearly a no go for BJP but I can see them also getting around 4-6 seat allocation from BJP.  BJP's position is relatively weak enough this time vis-a-vis AAP that they might agreed to something like this.  BJP's hope has to be that BJP-JJP-SAD consolidates the old BJP base and INC outperforms and cuts into the AAP vote.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2020, 11:14:00 am
In AP, JSP did a u-turn and announce an alliance with BJP.  This seems a way for JSP to get more indirect funding given how weak BJP is in AP.  What the BJP really need is for JSP to merge into BJP and for Pawan Kalyan to be the face of the BJP in AP.  It seems JSP is refusing to do this an lose its identity.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2020, 10:38:39 am
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-5-000-rallies-in-20-days-bjps-big-plan-for-delhi-polls-2166091

"5,000 Rallies In 20 Days: BJP's Big Plan For Delhi Elections"

It seems the BJP is going to copy the 2015 AAP election strategy model of many mini-rallies versus a dozen mega rallies.  These rallies will be only a couple of hundred people but in 2015 the AAP strategy of mini-rallies seems to have worked from a micro-targeting point of view.  Main problem of BJP doing this is that this means it is harder to deploy Modi which still a key BJP asset to get out the BJP core vote.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2020, 10:43:35 am
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/bjp-may-give-most-of-remaining-13-seats-to-akali-dal-jdu-jjp/articleshow/73364311.cms

"Delhi assembly elections: BJP may give most of remaining 13  seats to Akali Dal, JD(U), JJP"

BJP have announced 57 candidates out of 70 seats.  It seems a bunch of the remaining 13 will go to allies.  After the Jharkhand setback where BJP lost ground in part due to losing the AJSU alliance the BJP is going out of its way to keep its NDA allies.  It seems SAD will get at least 4 seats (which it got in 2015), JD(U) will get at least 2, and JJP will get 2.   JJP seems to want a dozen seat which for sure is out of the question for BJP so JJP might in the end go its own way.  JD(U) base in Delhi is based on Bihari immigrants most of which went AAP in 2015.  BJP must be hoping JD(U) might try to get this vote base back for BJP.

 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2020, 10:46:45 am
VDPA poll projects AAP victory with INC being marginalized and BJP getting a positive swing but not enough to overthrow AAP 2015 majority.

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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 19, 2020, 03:58:05 pm
It seems that INC is also hoping to capture some of the Bihari immigrant vote in Delhi.  INC has allocated 4 seats to its Bihar ally RJD


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2020, 10:58:29 am
https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/bjp-won-t-have-alliance-with-akali-dal-dushyant-chautala-s-jjp-in-delhi/story-n27zOi1c4bPRRQ1T8QeBLL.html

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/bjp-gives-three-seats-to-jdu-ljp-for-delhi-polls/1713241

"BJP won’t have alliance with Akali Dal, Dushyant Chautala’s JJP in Delhi"
"BJP gives three seats to JD(U), LJP for Delhi polls"

In Delhi, It seems in the end BJP will not have an alliance with SAD and JJP but will hand out 2 seats to JD(U) and 1 to LJP.  JJP will for sure run candidates on its own.  Not clear if SAD will run candidates or just not run.  Not clear what this means for the 100K Sikh votes in Delhi will now flow to.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2020, 11:01:08 am
It seems in that SAD will not run in Delhi as BJP ally over differences over CAA.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 20, 2020, 02:04:52 pm
https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/01/19/kejriwal-releases-guarantee-card-of-promises-free-bus-rides-mohalla-marshals.html

AAP CM Kejriwal rolls out a 'guarantee card' filled with all sorts of freebies ranging from free power to free bus to free water.  It also promises "mohalla marshals" on public transit to ensure the safety of women using public transit.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2020, 08:08:48 am
In Delhi it seems Haryana Jat party and BJP ally JJP will not run due to not getting a satisfactory symbol from ECI as it is not a Delhi state parry.   JJP refused to run on BJP symbol.  So BJP will have 2 allies (2 seats for JD(U) and 1 seat for LJP)   INC ally RJD will get 4 seats but will run on INC symbol due to RJD not being a Delhi state party. 

This year there is a big focus on the Bihari immigrant vote. 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2020, 03:01:59 pm
SAD breaking off its alliance with BJP in Delhi feels like a big deal and might be an advanced signal that SAD might break off its alliance with BJP for the 2023 Punjab assembly election which would be huge.  If the SAD is headed in that direction it most likely be because SAD sense that it might lose its Sikh base to a second coming of AAP in Punjab over the CAA issue. 

INC is not a real threat to SAD for the Sikh vote as there will always be a significant anti-INC Sikh base in Punjab.  But AAP is a different matter.  In 2017 AAP was poised to push SAD to third place to capturing the SAD Sikh base.  Then AAP imploded allowing for the revival of SAD in Punjab to become the main opposition to INC.  The AAP decline continued after 2017 fortifying the SAD position as the main opposition to INC.  Now due to  anti-CAA sentiments with the Sikh base SAD might sense that an alliance with the BJP will drive anti-INC but anti-CAA Sikh base over to AAP and SAD has to move to try to prevent that.

 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2020, 03:14:26 pm
BJP offering JD(U) 2 seats and LJP 1 seats seems be an attempt to capture the Bihari immigrant vote but also to try to hold the JD(U)-BJP-LJP alliance in Bihar together for the 2020 Bihar assembly elections later in the year.

There seems to be some blow-back within the JD(U) over the alliance.  The antj-BJP anti-CAA faction of JD(U) are voicing concern about a BJP-JD(U) alliance in a state outside of Bihar.   The main force within JD(U) centers around Prashant Kishor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prashant_Kishor).  Prashant Kishor is a political strategist that worked for Modi in the 2012 BJP Gujarat assembly election and was a key strategist for the 2014 Modi-BJP LS campaign.  Prashant Kishor, it seems, was expecting some sort of role in the BJP government at the federal level and got nothing.  He then shifted to an anti-BJP stance and worked for the 2015 RJD-JD(U)-INC Bihar assembly campaign that smashed the NDA and then worked for the 2017 INC Punjab campaign.  In 2018 he joined the JD(U) and seems to continue working with non-BJP parties including BJP allies that might not see eye-to-eye with the BJP to outright anti-BJP parties.  It is said that Prashant Kishor is also working with AAP this Delhi election and now he might be working against his own party if he continues his work with AAP.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 21, 2020, 03:29:54 pm
https://www.epw.in/journal/2020/2/special-articles/continuing-practice-untouchability-india.html

Intersecting report on "Continuing Practice Untouchability in India"

Brahmins practices it the most due to most likely religiously beliefs.  It is interesting that OBC practices it more than non-Brahmins upper castes.  Even some Dalits practice it (to other Dalits lower down in the social hierarchy).   Sort of proves that part of this is about the need to feel socially superior to someone else.  Just like in the Old South sometimes White trash would enforce Jim Crow more aggressively than upper income Whites.
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Education have limited impact on the practicing of untouchability
()

The practice of untouchability  centers around the Hindu heartland.  More urbanized Maharashtra has lower instances of the  practice of untouchability  but fairly urban Gujarat have a high instance of practice of untouchability.
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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2020, 09:16:44 am
India Today MOTN poll

For LS
        vote    seats
NDA  41%    303
  BJP 36%     271
UPA  29%     108
  INC 20%      60

()
()

Not that much change from 2019 LS election other than SHS leaving NDA cost NDA a bunch of votes and seats.  BJP and INC vote bases mostly same as 2019 LS election with a slight swing toward INC

Modi still way ahead of Rahul Gandhi for PM and seen as the the greatest Indian PM ever
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Near majority support removing Article 370 for J&K
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View on CAA seems mixed with plurality for CAA but a plurality does see CAA as a BJP political tool versus a legitimate policy concern  
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()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2020, 09:22:29 am
Telengana municipal elections sees TRS with a massive landslide victory with BJP and INC fighting for a distance second.
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TRS was re-elected in 2018 assembly elections and being that it is only been less than two years since re-election one would expect TRS to sweep these sort of local elections. Still the scale of TRS victory shows what a force TRS is at the local level.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2020, 09:24:41 am
https://www.hindustantimes.com/assembly-elections/delhi-assembly-elections-2020-congress-aap-battle-for-same-vote-base-in-delhi-polls/story-5T3Iy5O1vrR5Gz46q1EeVP.html

"BJP banking on good show by Congress in Delhi polls. Here’s why"

It is pretty sad these days that BJP is hoping that INC does well in Delhi.  Since most of the AAP base came from the INC base, INC retaking some of its old base from AAP is the only way BJP can win.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 25, 2020, 10:01:11 am
After the TRS landslide in municipal elections in Telengana, TRS leader KCR made common cause with Arvind Kejriwal's AAP in Delhi by indicating that AAP is heading toward a landslide victory in Delhi and that regional parties like TRS and AAP will continue its non-INC anti-BJP position of anti-CAA.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2020, 10:14:11 am
https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/delhi-polls-aap-strong-but-bjp-gaining-steadily/1719039

Latest C-voter Delhi tracking poll has

AAP  50.6 (-3.2)
BJP   31.2(+2.0)
INC    5.3(+1.9)

AAP losing ground but well ahead.   Most polls like this overestimate the incumbent but the scale of the AAP lead  is large enough to be sure that AAP is well ahead.  I suspect in the AAP wins a narrow victory over BJP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 27, 2020, 10:31:18 am
https://news.abplive.com/news/india/desh-ka-mood-nda-to-get-330-seats-if-elections-held-today-70-want-modi-as-pm-1149162

ABP-C-Voter national poll has NDA winning 330 seats if LS held today.  It has

             Vote share        Seats
NDA          44%              330
UPA           25%              130

Not clear how the poll handled SHS leaving NDA.  I assume they like India Today's MOTN poll assumes that SHS will just run separately from NDA and UPA.

The NDA seats by key states are

UP- 69
Bihar - 36
MP-25
Rajasthan - 21
Gujarat - 26
Maharashtra - 21
Assam - 10
Delhi - 7
Bengal - 22
Karnataka - 22

Which has NDA gaining in UP from 2019 due to SP-BSP split.  NDA seems to lose a bit of ground in non-UP Hindi heartland states like Bihar MP and Rajasthan.   SHS leaving NDA clearly will cost BJP in Maharashtra.   NDA gains a seat in Assam shows the anti-CAA protest there did not hurt BJP.  In Karnataka BJP loses a bit of ground as INC and JD(S) split up which means that INC and JD(S) rebel voters switch back.   In WB BJP seems to have surged to 22 beating out AITC.

These results are counter-intuitive as one would expect CAA would help consolidate BJP strength in the Hindi heartland but hurt BJP in Assam and WB.  The opposite seems to be taking place.

As for PM preference in a 2 way race it is Modi 70 Rahul Gandhi 25


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on January 30, 2020, 10:42:51 am
In Delhi it seems that the person leading the BJP campaign is really former BJP president and current Home Minister Amit Shah.  The reasons for this seems to many but comes down to

a) BJP is behind so if Modi took too big a role and BJP loses badly then the Modi brand would be damanaged
b) Amit Shah is the Modi preferred successor to Modi within the BJP anyway so it makes sense to give him more exposure and ownership
c) Amit Shah is better at running low level attrition battles based on local issue versus Modi's strength in projecting a overall national narrative

In the meantime SAD and BJP seems to have made up with SAD backing BJP even though SAD will not be running any candidates.   I suspect the damage with Sikh voters is already done anyway.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 01, 2020, 07:13:24 am
https://news.abplive.com/videos/news/india-aap-likely-to-get-47-votes-in-delhi-polls-siyasat-ka-sensex-31012020-1152009

"AAP likely to get 47% votes in Delhi Polls | Siyasat Ka Sensex"

Siyasat Ka Sensex data lab seems to come out with a projection of

AAP   47%
BJP    37%
INC     4%

The momentum seems to be on the BJP side and the gap between the two is most likely closer since INC clearly will get above 4% of the vote and most of that will be at the expense of AAP.  AAP still has the edge but most likely their victory will be very narrow.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 01, 2020, 08:11:48 am
http://www.businessworld.in/article/NewsX-Polstrat-Opinion-Poll-Says-AAP-Set-To-Win-In-Delhi-Again-BJP-To-Get-12-15-Seats/26-01-2020-182753/

"NewsX-Polstrat Opinion Poll Says AAP Set To Win In Delhi Again, BJP To Get 12-15 Seats"

NewsX poll has it at

           Seats     Vote share
AAP     53-56       48.56%
BJP      12-15       31.70%
INC       2-4           9.64%

()

This poll was from a few days ago and it seems BJP had picked up support since.  Still a good poll for AAP.  INC at 2-4 seats with 9.64% seems to indicate that the Muslim vote has swung back to INC from 2015 even as INC Hindu votes have shifted to AAP.  The concentration of Muslims in a few seats means that INC wins 2-4 seats.

NewsX poll of polls shows a similar result
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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: Ishan on February 03, 2020, 09:52:13 am
From what I've seen, the BJP is perceived as a mostly Hindi party in Southern India, and so unless if the INC falls apart, even then the BJP wouldn't do well in Southern India.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2020, 10:03:59 am
The BJP is clearly trying to nationalize the Delhi assembly elections around CAA and anti-CAA protests.  The BJP wants to link the anti-CAA protests to the Indian Left and then tie the Indian Left to Pakistan.  AAP knows this is a losing battle because if all the BJP voters of the 2019 LS elections voted BJP then AAP will lose in a landslide.  AAP instead is trying to fight on local issues. 


Last few days the BJP is gaining traction in getting the media and voter discussions to be around topics it wants to fight on: CAA vs anti-CAA protests.   A BJP minister in a rally led a chant "shoot the traitors" which while making the BJP look extreme does shift the discussion toward issues of CAA and anti-CAA protests.  There we some shootings by pro-BJP activists toward supposed anti-CAA protests pretty much did the same thing: Making BJP lose some moderates votes but shift the discussion toward national issues which would pay the BJP back several fold.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2020, 10:07:11 am
From what I've seen, the BJP is perceived as a mostly Hindi party in Southern India, and so unless if the INC falls apart, even then the BJP wouldn't do well in Southern India.

Mostly true but INC is not doing that well in the Dravidian South where other than Kerala INC has pretty much lost ground to regional parties.  Also BJP is fairly strong in Karnataka and is making headway in Telangana (in urban Telangana BJP is the main opposition to TRS while in rural Telangana INC is the main opposition to TRS.)  In the deep South (TN and Kerala) the BJP brand is toxic under Modi mostly because of the view that under Modi the BJP has become a the Hindi party.  But if the BJP can dominate Northern India then the Deep South regional parties can be co-oped into power sharing by the BJP.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2020, 10:23:17 am
On the negative side for the BJP in Delhi, it seems INC is running a very low key campaign and pretty much de facto giving up ahead of time to give the AAP the best chance of beating back BJP.  I assume the INC is hoping that AAP precipitates in the next LS election in Delhi.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 03, 2020, 03:55:34 pm
Times Now-IPSOS  poll for Delhi has it at

           Seats          Vote Share
AAP       57                 52%
BJP       12                  34%
INC        1                    4%

()
()

By 51-24 margin voters are opposed to anti-CAA protests
()

AAP leads across the board on issues
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2020, 03:39:20 pm
In another attempt to nationalize the Delhi assembly election Modi announces the formation of a truest to build the Ram temple in Ayodhya.  This was stipulated in the SC judgement on Ayodhya but the timing of the announcement right before the Delhi assembly election clearly is an attempt to woo Hindu voters toward the BJP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2020, 10:37:37 pm
https://news.abplive.com/news/india/delhi-election-2020-abp-cvoter-opinion-poll-kejriwal-led-aap-shaheen-bagh-bjp-issue-1154278

Final ABP-C-Voter poll

           Seats     Vote Share
AAP       50           45.6%
BJP       18           37.1%
INC        2             4.4%

BJP clearly gaining ground.  Based on this it is pretty clear that AAP scale of victory most likely is overstated in many other polls given the momentum of the BJP and that AAP's victory will most likely be narrow.  INC levels of support is still the big X-factor.  The better the INC does the smaller the scale of AAP's victory.

Newsx based on this did a poll of polls which of course show all polls have AAP well ahead

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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2020, 10:41:31 pm
India News-Neta poll has it

AAP   54
BJP   15
INC    1

()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 05, 2020, 10:43:40 pm
ABP Delhi tracking poll does show BJP cutting into AAP's lead over time

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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2020, 08:43:39 pm
Voting to start soon in Delhi.  Not sure if there will be exit polls.  Hopefully there will be.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 07, 2020, 10:14:19 pm
My gut feeling is that the BJP won the election campaign and should out perform pre election polls in the exit polls.   AAP should still win based on winning over the INC base. 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 06:36:20 am
Turnout down around 10% so far from 2015

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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 07:58:12 am
Anti-BJP Democracy Times exit poll for Delhi

BJP: 04-08
INC: 00-01
AAP: 61-66
OTH: 00-01


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 07:59:37 am
Turnout will most likely be at most 60% which is a fall of over 7% from 2015.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:20:33 am
NDTV poll of exit polls so far has AAP ahead 49-20 over BJP

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Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:23:48 am
VDP exit poll has a lot more detailed breakdown

          Seats     vote share
AAP      48            48%
BJP       22            40%
INC        0             6%
()



AAP victory has to do with its CM face
()



Breakdown by community

INC Muslim base shifted to AAP to give it the victory.  BJP won back from AAP its old Upper Caste base relative to 2015.  Despite SAD support Sikh vote went AAP most likely due to anti-CAA.
()



BJP will still win in a LS election given the Modi and CAA factor
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:32:01 am
AAP has successfully transformed itself from an anti-system party to a party of governance and stability.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:34:25 am
Updated NDTV poll of exit polls has it at AAP 51 BJP 18 INC 1

()

BJP seems to be outperforming pre-election polls a bit so it certain that BJP will cross 20 seats and beat back the AAP landslide.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:35:08 am
Looks like there was a last minute surge in turnout so final turnout might not be that far off from the record 2015 levels.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:39:12 am
Further adjustments by exit poll based on late turnout surge seems to shift things against BJP in NDTV poll of exit polls to make it AAP 52 BJP 17 INC 1

()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:43:00 am
Republic TV vote share have AAP above 50%, it seems mostly due to INC vote tactical voting for AAP

()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:45:51 am
ABP News- CVOTER  poll has a much stronger INC vote share

AAP-  46%
BJP-   34%
INC-  13%

()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:51:20 am
Axis My India is the only larger pollster that has not come in with their complete exit polls.  Their initial partial exit poll results leans heavy for AAP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 09:26:57 am
Axis My India has massive AAP landslide

AAP  59-58
BJP   2-11
INC     0
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 09:29:06 am
Cvoter poll breakdown by education

BJP stronger as education rises.  Of course eduaction is also strongly correlated with income and Upper caste.
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 09:46:18 am
Axis My India complete results

AAP    64    56%
BJP      6    35%
INC     0      5%
()

has a repeat of 2015 with INC tactical voting for AAP.

With regional breakdown
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 10:01:39 am
Post Axis My India NDTV poll of exit polls AAP 56 BJP 14 INC 0.  Nut sure what happen to Sudarshan News exit poll and why it got yanked.  They did shift their numbers after releasing their figure so they might have yanked the poll completely to take into account the late turnout turn which most likely helped AAP (just like 2015).

()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 11:34:07 am
Final list of exit polls and average

                                AAP        BJP        INC
India Today-Axis          63          7           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
NewsX-Neta                55        14           1
News24-JanKi Baat      55        15           0
Republic-Jan Ki Baat    54        15           1
TV9-Cicero                 54         15           1
Spick Media                51         17           2
Sudarshan                  49         20           1
VDPA                          48        22           0
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
IndiaTV-Ipsos              44        26           0
------------------------------------------------------------
Average                      53        16           1


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 11:48:13 am
Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

There are three pre-election polls that had an exit poll.

Pre-election
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         57        12           1
ABP-Covter                 49        17           1
NewsX-Polstrat            54        14           2
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

Exit poll
                                AAP        BJP        INC
Times Now-Ipsos         47        23           0
ABP-Covter                 56        12           2
NewsX-Polstrat            56        14           0
----------------------------------------------------
                                 53        16           1

So no momentum either way.  If so no reason not to go with average of exit polls since this is not a defeat of the incumbent party.    So my exit poll based projection has it at

                                AAP        BJP        INC
                                 53        16           1


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 05:16:27 pm
Delhi turnout ends up being 61.18% which is lower than 2013 and 2015 but higher than all the others that came before it.  Turnout was most heavy in Muslim areas. 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, J&K, and Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2020, 08:51:32 pm
The main risk for the BJP in these exit polls are that India Today-Axis which was the most accurate exit pollster last few elections is also the most pessimistic on the BJP.  Of course India Today-Axis had their own share of missed called.  The 2015 Bihar assembly India Today-Axis was way off.  Their positive record on started the last couple of years.

The main risk for AAP in these exit polls are that most of these exit polls are based on polling done up to 4:30PM to 5:00PM.  But there was a large turnout surge right after that time up to 6:00PM.  In theory that could be a pro-AAP surge just like 2015 but there is a risk that the last minute surge has an anti-incumbent bias in favor of BJP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 09, 2020, 11:25:58 am
It seems J&K will go through a very long delimitation and the assembly election will most likely not be held until 2021


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 09, 2020, 05:00:30 pm
More Axis exit poll breakdown

Old INC vote base Muslims and Balmiki Dalits broke for AAP.   AAP managed to split OBC and Upper Caste vote with BJP.
()

Gender gap of women in favor of AAP
()


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:11:39 am
With around half of the vote counted it is a solid AAP victory

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    58            -9
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     12           +9
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)   

AAP                  52.66%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   41.11%
INC-RJD             4.07%

BJP is blaming INC for running a lackluster campaign and allowing the AAP to pickup the INC vote for the landslide win.   INC is blaming the BJP for polarizing the election which led to the INC base to tactically vote for AAP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:16:47 am
These sort of vote shares seems to imply BJP in single digit seats so the BJP seat count is more likely to fall.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:20:05 am
INC becoming a minor player in Delhi.  INC in Delhi going the way of INC in WB, Tripura and AP where it used to be a powerful force only to become a force in the single digits.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on February 11, 2020, 01:21:35 am
53%-41% translating into mere single digits in seat count for the losing party in a 70-seat assembly looks shockingly bad for the party in question. Does this happen much in India?


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:23:22 am
53%-41% translating into mere single digits in seat count for the losing party in a 70-seat assembly looks shockingly bad for the party in question. Does this happen much in India?

Delhi tends to be more uniform in terms of vote share distribution given the lack of political diversity given its size.  Still this is just my hunch.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:44:38 am
This is the 4th BJP setback in assembly elections since its 2019 LS landslide victory (Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and now Delhi.)  In the end Modi is not Indira Gandhi who in the 1971-1972 period and in the 1980 carried INC to victory across the board in assembly election victories after a LS landslide.   Modi's appeal seems to be limited only relative to national security issues and not across the board as Indira Gandhi seems to have achieved.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:50:13 am
NDA vote share fall in state assembly elections since the 2019 LS landslide vs the 2019 LS NDA vote share

                    2019LS      Assembly
Haryana        58.21%       36.69%
Maharashtra  51.34%       42.66%
Jharkhand     56.00%       35.84%
Delhi            56.86%        40.23% (for now)


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 01:52:01 am
One of the reasons AAP rebounded from the 2019 LS debacle is that they stopped trying to attack Modi.  AAP's campaign recognized Modi's popularity in Delhi and ran on the position that there is no reason why a pro-Modi voter cannot vote AAP in the state election and that AAP welcome such votes.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 02:06:09 am
Current seat count are (BJP gained a bit)

                        Seats     Diff on 2015
AAP                    56           -11
BJP-JD(U)-LJP     14          +11
INC-RJD              0              0

Vote share wise on ECI site which has a greater lag has it at (NULLs not filtered out)  

AAP                  53.01%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP   40.47%
INC-RJD             4.30%

Despite this heavy defeat the NDA vote share is the highest for ever in Delhi assembly elections since 1993 which was the last time BJP won a majority in a Delhi assembly election.

While AAP gained some Dalit and Muslim INC voters it seems that some of the INC Upper caste vote went over to the BJP.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 06:47:55 am
With most of the vote counted it is a heavy landslide defeat of BJP

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    63           -4                             53.61%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      7           +4                             39.69%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.39%

Axis My India exit polls ended up being the most accurate again, especially on the vote share to seat translation.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 07:17:44 am
INC came in third in all 70 seats.  In 2015 INC at least came in second in 4 seats


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 07:24:46 am
Muslim heavy Matia Mahal shows how the Muslim vote shifted

AAP  76.0 (+16.8 )
BJP  19.2  (+7.9)
INC    3.9 (-22.9)

In 2015 BJP ran a Muslim candidate.  This time they ran a Hindu candidate.  BJP consolidated the Hindu vote this time but what remained of the 2015 INC Muslim base shifted to AAP in response.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 09:27:24 am
Getting close to the end.  BJP picks up a seat.

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.60%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.74%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.31%

The 3 main blocs add up to nearly 98% of the vote which is a record on top of 2015.  Polarization very strong in this election 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 09:46:04 am
The collapse of BSP in Delhi assembly election is just as dramatic as the collapse of the INC.  In 2008 Delhi assembly elections BSP won 14.05% of the vote.  In 2020 so far BSP is at 0.71%  BSP was at 5.38% in 2013 and 1.31% in 2015.  AAP pretty much ate up all of the BSP vote between 2013 and 2020.
 


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 12:07:11 pm
All voted counted in Delhi assembly election

                        Seats     Diff on 2015       Vote share (null not filtered out)
AAP                    62           -5                             53.57%
BJP-JD(U)-LJP      8           +5                             39.77%
INC-RJD              0              0                              4.30%


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 02:51:03 pm
I was able to compute the result table

2020 Delhi assembly election

              Contest          Won           Vote Share
INC+           70               0                4.32% (RJD was part of INC+)

BJP+           70               8              39.95% (JD(U) and LJP were part of BJP+)

SHS              5               0                0.21%

AAP             70             62              53.82%

BSP             68               0               0.72%


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 05:04:40 pm
The BJP campaign of using CAA seems to have flopped.  Of course taking the CAA narrative to farcical levels was always not going to work.  Toward the end of the campaign the BJP resorted to calling AAP CM Kejriwal a crypto-Muslim and an agent of Pakistan.  Kejriwal was asked on TV to recite the Hindu hymn Hanuman Chalisa (which gives thanks to the Hindu monkey deity Hanuman) to prove he was a Hindu.  Such a method of attack was always going to fail in an urban environment and the BJP were fools to try it.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 11, 2020, 05:11:33 pm
NDTV claims the BJP vote share increase was mostly from INC

()

I think it is more complex then that.  I am sure what remained of the 2015 Upper Caste and OBC INC vote went to BJP but I think there was also a swing of Upper Caste and OBC AAP vote to BJP and a shift  of INC Muslim and Dalit votes to AAP in response so the AAP net vote share barely moved.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 11, 2020, 05:17:04 pm
Very interesting result.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2020, 10:46:24 am
The AAP record of winning 2 landslides in a row with greater than 50% of the vote is very rare in India state level elections where there is usually a fairly strong current of anti-incumbency. 

I looked around and the only other example of this would be, ironically, Gujarat 1980 and Gujarat 1985.  Gujarat is now a very strong BJP state (Modi's home state) but during the 1980s was a fairly strong INC state.  INC CM Madhav Singh Solanki during that period came up with the KHAM theory (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims) which fused Upper Castes, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims into a huge pro-INC bloc at the expense the economically powerful Patels.  Based on this social coalition the INC smashed the BJP in both 1980 and 1985 with greater than 50% of the vote. Of course this permanently aliened Patels and other OBCS from INC and shifted them to BJP.  As the KHAM coalition fell apart in the 1990s with Upper Castes also going over to BJP, Dalits splintering and Muslims become distrustful of BJP the INC era of dominance came to the end and replaced with BJP domination. 

Recently things are going full circle with Patels feeling that BJP are taking them for granted and could shift to INC to make Gujarat competitive again.

The KHAM theory is actually the basis of the BJP (now seemingly failed) strategy of forming a coalition of communities to align against the dominate community of a state (Jats in Harayana, Marathas in Maharashtra, and tribals in Jharkhand)  Recently state assembly elections in those states where the BJP unperformed in all three shows the limits of such a strategy.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2020, 10:50:41 am
The AAP blueprint for victory is actually similar to what other parties have done before to win:
1) Do not focus too much on overall governance and economic enviornment
2) Instead focus on one or two sops or social programs and make sure they are done well even at the expense of other programs
3) Keep on talking the success of these one or two social programs during the election

For AAP their main talking point was
a) subsidized eletricity
b) safe public transit (for women)

Even though the AAP record is mixed on other issues they just kept on hammering home these two accomplishments and rode them to victory.  b) clearly helped as there was a clear gender gap of women support for AAP in the exit polls.   


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: njwes on February 14, 2020, 04:50:56 pm
Maybe an ignorant question, but what's the general socioeconomic profile of the BJP's Muslim voters?


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 14, 2020, 05:08:08 pm
Maybe an ignorant question, but what's the general socioeconomic profile of the BJP's Muslim voters?

Shia Muslims given the Sunni domination of the Muslim institutions in India and their own discrimination of Shia Muslims.  Also due to the Triple Talaq issues more women Muslim voters vote BJP then men.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 16, 2020, 02:47:55 pm
The 2019 LS BJP landslide victory followed by under-performance in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and now Delhi even with polls showing that Modi is clearly the most popular politician in India shows there is a clear "Modi vote" above and beyond the "BJP vote."   The trick now is to try to estimate it.

One way I decided to try to measure this is to take all the assembly election results of 2015-2019 (2014 for J&K) and look at the BJP and INC vote shares and compare them to the BJP and INC vote shares in the 2019 LS election.  By 2015 the Modi magic of pushing up the BJP vote share in assembly elections have clearly worn off so this is a fair comparison.  Doing this and breaking up the results by the language type (Hindi, non-Hindi Indo-Aryan, Sino-Tibetian, Dravidian), of said state gives us

2015-2019 assembly                                          
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    69.30%          26.83%             20.67%
Hindi                       64.85%          37.09%             26.96%
Indo-Aryan              71.33%          26.83%             24.41%
Sino-Tibetian            84.15%          22.03%             23.32%
Dravidian                 75.69%            4.41%             12.19%

2019 LS
                           Turnout%   BJP vote share     INC vote share
Overall                    66.73%          37.41%             19.64%
Hindi                       62.32%          49.25%             19.20%
Indo-Aryan              68.76%          39.72%             21.11%
Sino-Tibetian            76.76%         19.89%              30.78%
Dravidian                 73.32%            7.15%             17.05%

One flaw of my methodology is that in states where the BJP/INC have stable local allies, the BJP/INC vote share will be higher in LS elections since as the national party the BJP/INC will get a greater share of seat allocation in LS elections than they deserve versus state assembly elections.  This was clearly the case for the BJP in TN and Kerala and for the INC in Kerala and Bihar.  But for the BJP in Bihar and Maharashtra given the local BJP allies (JD(U) and SHS) were playing hardball the BJP seat allocation in those two states actually matched relative BJP strength in Bihar and Maharashtra

Another quirk here is that in 2018 Telengana assembly elections the BJP vote share is underestimated since like the 2020 Delhi assembly elections where the INC vote shifted tactically to AAP to stop BJP the 2018 Telengana BJP vote shifted tactically to TRS to stop INC.

So overall the BJP state assembly vote share is Dravidian states is underestimated (Telengana) while the BJP 2019 LS vote share in Dravidian states are overestimated (TN and Kerala).

If we take that into account it is clear the "Modi vote" which is the 2019 LS BJP vote share gap on top of the BJP state assembly vote share is pretty much concentrated in the Hindi and Indo-Aryan states and is roughly around 12%-13% of the overall vote which is a massive personal vote.  Looking at exit polls it seems this "Modi vote" is concentrated in OBC, Dalit, and Tribals.

Historically the BJP leadership since the 1960s were almost all Upper Caste Hindi belt politicians.  Modi being a Gujarati OBC allows him to take into a bloc of voters that historically been turned off by the BJP image as an upper caste party.  Modi seems to have broken through with these voters and expanding this breakthrough in non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states.  On the other hand Modi seems to struggle to shift the Modi vote to the BJP in state assembly elections especially when the BJP is the incumbent party.

The fact that Dalits and Tribals form a significant part of the Modi vote seems to indicate that while both communities are still resentful of Upper Caste domination at the social level they all aspire to be part of a global superpower that Modi represents in terms of aspirations.  This is something opposition parties have to tap into if they are to regain these voters in LS elections.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2020, 08:58:22 am
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/babulal-marandi-merges-jvm-with-bjp-amit-shah-jp-nadda-1647292-2020-02-17

"Babulal Marandi merges JVM with BJP, Amit Shah, JP Nadda welcomes former Jharkhand CM"

In Jharkhand, ex-BJP CM Babulal Marandi and founder of JVM merges JVM back into BJP.  Back in 2014 Modi considered asking Babulal Marandi to merge JVM back into BJP and become the BJP CM.  Babulal Marandi came up with conditions that were too harsh for BJP so it broke down.  Now he is coming back under much more difficult circumstances.  Anyway at least this will help shore up the BJP tribal vote.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 17, 2020, 10:03:18 am
INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot claims that BJP leadership in Delhi lost on purpose

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bjp-leaders-wanted-party-lose-during-delhi-elections-ashok-gehlot-1647108-2020-02-16

"BJP leaders wanted their party to lose during Delhi elections, says Ashok Gehlot"

He was not clear why the BJP leadership wanted such a loss.


Title: Re: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
Post by: jaichind on February 18, 2020, 07:27:17 pm
In Bihar, famous political strategist and former JD(U) vice-president Prashant Kishor who fell out with JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar over his support of AAP over the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance in Delhi seems to be starting a new movement.     

Prashant Kishor was always a political strategist and not mass leader so not sure where this would go.  Still all things equal he will be working with anti-NDA forces in the upcoming Bihar assembly election later this week.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/why-prashant-kishor-wants-to-connect-with-1-crore-people-in-bihar-1647730-2020-02-18

"Why Prashant Kishor wants to connect with 1 crore people in Bihar"