Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls => Topic started by: Ben. on May 19, 2004, 07:40:23 AM



Title: Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 19, 2004, 07:40:23 AM
Kerry trials Bush by seven points with Nader garnering 3% and 8% remaining undecided but with Edwards added as Kerry’s VP the Democratic ticket comes into a statistical dead heat with Bush/Cheney at 46% and Kerry/Edwards at 45%.

http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html

Another interesting point, the Kerry Campaign has apparently been investigating ad buying in NC.  


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 19, 2004, 07:50:47 AM
Mason-Dixon is a quality firm an' all...
Reason no #48512 to pick Edwards...


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 19, 2004, 08:15:42 AM
Mason-Dixon is a quality firm an' all...
Reason no #48512 to pick Edwards...

Ditto... I when i saw the "NC POLL" thread originally... i though it'll be some crappy firm but when i saw it was MD.... YEEESSS!

He's really the only choice!.. and compensates so much for Kerry ;)  


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: English on May 19, 2004, 09:49:53 AM
When was the last time the Dems won NC?
I can't see it myself.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: WalterMitty on May 19, 2004, 09:54:33 AM
the dems last won nc in 1976.  it isnt going to happen this time either.

a lot of laid off textiles workers are (unfortunately) wooed by edward's protectionism message.  i thought that idea was defeated 100 years ago, but i guess not.

textiles and tobacco arent coming back.  you can be like john edwards and talk about protectionism OR you can talk about economic diversification.  i choose the latter.

to kerry's credit, he isnt a protectionist and i dont think he will choose edwards as his running mate.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: lidaker on May 19, 2004, 09:56:23 AM
Carter 1976


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: English on May 19, 2004, 10:33:30 AM
1976? Thought so.
He has no chance!
It'd be landslide territory before NC falls.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 19, 2004, 11:59:11 AM
1976? Thought so.
He has no chance!
It'd be landslide territory before NC falls.

Nearly stayed Dem in 1980, nearly went Dem in 1992 and 1996.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Mort from NewYawk on May 19, 2004, 12:18:49 PM
North Carolina is taking on the some of the character of other "sun belt" states like AZ, NV, and NM. A lot of financial service and computer companies have sprung up recently in the Raleigh-Durham area. Of all the southern states, it will probably be the first to become a swing state.

It's 15 EVs could offset the failure of Kerry to win OH, but not the additional failure to hold PA.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 19, 2004, 12:19:26 PM
1976? Thought so.
He has no chance!
It'd be landslide territory before NC falls.

Nearly stayed Dem in 1980, nearly went Dem in 1992 and 1996.

Agreed... Mason-Dixon as I think I said are a good firm... this is good news in the end I really don't know who it would go to, but I think that Bush would pull through by a point or two, but it really depends.    

North Carolina is not Alabama then again nor is it a traditional swing state like… say, Ohio. But that said with Edwards on the ticket and with polls in the state showing Edwards (thanks to the media’s love affair with the guy… its great!:D ) he is the most popular Democrat in the State. I think that thanks largely to that and high unemployment in NC in Textiles etc… the state could be close but only with Edwards on the ticket. But it is in the Midwest, the “Steel States” and with moderates and independents across the country that Edwards real potential as a running mate lies .          


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 19, 2004, 12:24:27 PM
Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 19, 2004, 12:27:22 PM
Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller

?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: WalterMitty on May 19, 2004, 12:57:47 PM
first of all, it is a false assumption that workers in the new industries in rdu are going to vote democratic.  those workers DEFINITELY arent the workers who are turned on by edward's silly pseudo-populism.

raleigh and wake county is a pretty conservative area..  durham is a heavily democratic area due to two things 1. a very high black population and 2. duke university


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: California Dreamer on May 19, 2004, 02:13:35 PM
I wonder what Edwards would do to SC, this state has has traditionally been Dem...would it put back into Lean or safe for Kerry?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Smash255 on May 19, 2004, 02:26:37 PM
I wonder what Edwards would do to SC, this state has has traditionally been Dem...would it put back into Lean or safe for Kerry?

It wouldn't make it a safe state for Kerry, but it could turn S.C to Kerry not rerady to say lean yet, but along with NC it would become battleground


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: California Dreamer on May 19, 2004, 02:28:27 PM
SC is already a Battleground. It went with Clinton both times. It even went with Dukakis!


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: elcorazon on May 19, 2004, 02:32:48 PM
SC is already a Battleground. It went with Clinton both times. It even went with Dukakis!
SC has not gone with a democrat since 1976.  I don't know what you're talking about.
maybe you mean WV?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: © tweed on May 19, 2004, 02:33:41 PM
to kerry's credit, he isnt a protectionist and i dont think he will choose edwards as his running mate.

Is that think or hope?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: California Dreamer on May 19, 2004, 02:42:57 PM
oops...sorry all those flyover states look the same


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Giant Saguaro on May 19, 2004, 03:04:15 PM
With Edwards on the ticket, I don't think Bush will carry the state by 13%, as in 2000, so I'd safely say it will be closer, but people vote for the President, not VP, and I don't see Kerry having any appeal at all in NC. I think the poll is just an initial reaction to Edwards' name on the ticket. All these polls showing normally GOP states and Dem states getting closer and closer, but in the end, most of them will probably go back the way we'd expect.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: afleitch on May 19, 2004, 03:44:35 PM
And of course Nader polling 3% in a state he didn't even get on the ballot for in 2000. I have a feeling that even with out Edwards on the tickets, the Democrats will do better in North Carolina and Virginia than in states like Georgia and Louisiana, where Clinton did very well. I can see electoral maps in the future showing the Dems hugging the length of the east coast in the event of any Democratic victory.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 19, 2004, 04:27:52 PM
Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller

Zell Miller and nearly 150 other Southern Democrats have already signed on pledging that they will campaign for Bush.  Miller said that he is going to barn storm all accross the south for Bush.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: HoopsCubs on May 19, 2004, 04:45:34 PM
Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller

Zell Miller and nearly 150 other Southern Democrats have already signed on pledging that they will campaign for Bush.  Miller said that he is going to barn storm all accross the south for Bush.

Bush can have the South.  It won't matter after Kerry wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Arizona and Missouri.

Hoops


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 19, 2004, 05:45:24 PM
Zell Miller is really a Republican anyway (his voting record is indistinguishable from one), so I doubt any real Democrat cares what he thinks. The only people who like him are Republicans and other "Democrats" who are just registered Democrats but really Republicans and probably would vote for Bush anyway. The same way if Lincoln Chafee endorsed Kerry and campaigned for him, I doubt it'd Kerry many more Republican votes.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: opebo on May 19, 2004, 06:42:59 PM

Maybe he's talking about the fact that Zell Miller is going to campaign for Bush throughout the South.

Anyway, I'm not worried about North Carolina.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: © tweed on May 19, 2004, 07:20:06 PM
Kerry is an absolute idiot if he doesn't pick edwards, UNLESS somehow he can convince McCain to run with him.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 19, 2004, 07:37:24 PM
The only people who like him are Republicans and other "Democrats" who are just registered Democrats but really Republicans and probably would vote for Bush anyway.

And the south is full of, what?  Miller is a moderate.  He'll campaign for Bush down there to get the base fired up and win over some other moderates.  Miller is VERY, VERY popular down there.  If Miller goes around in North Carolina, Northern Florida, Luisiana, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee and West Virgina, then Bush won't have to spend much time at all, if any in those states.  That's time and effort (and money) that Bush can spend in other states.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: classical liberal on May 19, 2004, 09:18:26 PM
The only people who like him are Republicans and other "Democrats" who are just registered Democrats but really Republicans and probably would vote for Bush anyway.

And the south is full of, what?  Miller is a moderate.  He'll campaign for Bush down there to get the base fired up and win over some other moderates.  Miller is VERY, VERY popular down there.  If Miller goes around in North Carolina, Northern Florida, Luisiana, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee and West Virgina, then Bush won't have to spend much time at all, if any in those states.  That's time and effort (and money) that Bush can spend in other states.

Would he have to spend time there anyway?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: emergingDmajority1 on May 19, 2004, 09:41:00 PM
Miller is a moderate? He's so far right wing and it's not even funny. Besides we'll cancel out Miller with another popular southern Dem geezer, Jimmy Carter.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: opebo on May 19, 2004, 10:38:13 PM
Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller, Zell Miller

Zell Miller and nearly 150 other Southern Democrats have already signed on pledging that they will campaign for Bush.  Miller said that he is going to barn storm all accross the south for Bush.

Bush can have the South.  It won't matter after Kerry wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Arizona and Missouri.

Hoops

AZ and MO are pipe dreams for Kerry.  NH is also unlikely.. OH he may get..


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Giant Saguaro on May 19, 2004, 10:43:28 PM
Miller is a moderate? He's so far right wing and it's not even funny. Besides we'll cancel out Miller with another popular southern Dem geezer, Jimmy Carter.

:) No, whatever you do, don't bust out Jimmy - or Billy. He/they'd win over a PILE of southern states.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 19, 2004, 10:54:54 PM
Miller is a moderate? He's so far right wing and it's not even funny. Besides we'll cancel out Miller with another popular southern Dem geezer, Jimmy Carter.

Oh yeah, Miller is such a radical.  That's why the ACU only gave him a 47 rating in 2002.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 20, 2004, 03:50:11 AM
Miller is a moderate? He's so far right wing and it's not even funny. Besides we'll cancel out Miller with another popular southern Dem geezer, Jimmy Carter.

Oh yeah, Miller is such a radical.  That's why the ACU only gave him a 47 rating in 2002.

In 2003 it was 75.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: classical liberal on May 20, 2004, 09:04:22 AM
Miller was a moderate until 2003.  In 2003 he and McCain had the same ACU rating: 75.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Nation on May 20, 2004, 10:26:01 AM
Kerry won't win NC even with Edwards, but that doesn't take away from the poll itself, which means right now, Kerry is doing quite well.

Whether he can hold onto these types of numbers is yet to be seen.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: ?????????? on May 20, 2004, 12:21:26 PM
Kerry won't win NC even with Edwards, but that doesn't take away from the poll itself, which means right now, Kerry is doing quite well.

Whether he can hold onto these types of numbers is yet to be seen.


I believe it's a blip just as California is only 1 point ahead with Kerry. Probably a error but anything is possible! Every election is different.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 20, 2004, 01:35:57 PM
If this polls is accurate, and I'm not saying it is, then it could be possible that the hard times for textile mills may be having an effect in North Carolina.  I personaly don't believe that this will hold:

1) I give Edwards only a 20% chance of getting the nod.

2) Bush will fight his ass off to win here if he has to.  Zell Miller will plant himself here and barn storm from town to town for Bush if Bush looks weak here, but solid in the rest of the south.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: zachman on May 20, 2004, 03:29:59 PM
I wasn't that enthused with the result of this poll. I realize that independents in the South will be far more likely to vote for Bush than independents in the Northeast, thus Bush must be at 45% or below to not end up winning in one of the traditional Southern bloc states. I do think that this shows that Edwards would open up a whole new field of battlegrounds, but ultimately most of these would be closed.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Giant Saguaro on May 20, 2004, 03:55:07 PM
Miller is a moderate? He's so far right wing and it's not even funny. Besides we'll cancel out Miller with another popular southern Dem geezer, Jimmy Carter.

:) No, whatever you do, don't bust out Jimmy - or Billy. He/they'd win over a PILE of southern states.



I believe Billy Carter died years ago.

Oh. Well he'd still stand just as good a chance as Jimmy at winning over that southern block of states.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 20, 2004, 04:07:47 PM
might I also add that the ACU ratings for 2003 included voting against the Medicare bill as a double plus, so they actually sided with the liberals on that issue. So his actual rating as far as liberals are concerned was 83. And Americans For Democratic Action gave him a 10.

The only people who like Zell Miller anymore are Republicans and Democrats who might as well be Republicans, and they're all voting for Bush already.

Furthermore, he isn't that popular outside of Georgia. Most people in other southern states have never heard of them. I can guarantee most people here haven't heard of Feingold or Kohl.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Ben. on May 20, 2004, 05:54:14 PM
Much Like “Red” I must ak the question who the hell outside of Georgia save Political junkies and enraged democrats knows who Zell is?

He may well “barnstorm the south” but he’s hardly electrifying to listen to and what will be the good of his little trip if no one knows who he is? I would seem to me that he will have a negligible effect on the eventual result, if Bush wins NC (and he should do even if he loses) then Bush will be the one who won it not a Georgian Democrat who few have heard of outside of GA, conversely at the same time if the Democrats win NC it will be largely down to Edwards and unemployment.    


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: 12th Doctor on May 20, 2004, 06:00:03 PM
Much Like “Red” I must ak the question who the hell outside of Georgia save Political junkies and enraged democrats knows who Zell is?


Miller has been on a lot of national TV shows since he wrote his book.  I think that you underestimate his popularity and name recongination.

Also, he has a lot of southern charisma.  He can connect well with the average southern voter and he is generally well liked in the African American community.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Storebought on May 21, 2004, 10:34:07 AM
Zell Miller is the only (politically-) surviving Democrat in Georgia, the others having been ousted in 2002. He will swing GA to Bush.

His influence in neighboring states will be less than marginal. Really, how many normal people can name the two senators in the state across the river? I will pay fifty dollars to anyone I meet in the mall if they can name Texas's two senators, the four congressmen in Arkansas, the governor of Mississippi, etc.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: King on May 21, 2004, 02:58:14 PM
Edwards should be VP, North Carolina is the only state that has real standings electorally. New Mexico, Iowa, etc are small potatoes.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: zachman on May 21, 2004, 03:30:09 PM
Edwards should be VP, North Carolina is the only state that has real standings electorally. New Mexico, Iowa, etc are small potatoes.
The VP effect will make it close, but it will wear down. It might put Virginia in play. Why haven't any polls come out there?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: King on May 21, 2004, 03:45:40 PM
Edwards should be VP, North Carolina is the only state that has real standings electorally. New Mexico, Iowa, etc are small potatoes.
The VP effect will make it close, but it will wear down. It might put Virginia in play. Why haven't any polls come out there?

What about South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas, etc.? Wesley Clark and John Edwards can bring so many Southern States into play. Gore never won a political Southern state. Just the geographical Southern States California and New Mexico.


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: © tweed on May 21, 2004, 08:04:09 PM
Just the geographical Southern States California and New Mexico.

How are CA and NM southern states?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Josh/Devilman88 on May 21, 2004, 09:29:47 PM
Edwards would not do any thing.. the 3 biggest cities in North Carolina (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro) are mostly republicans... the only areas that are mostly Democarts are along the coast

Look at North Carolina voting thing..

2000-
()

1996-
()

1992-
()

1988-
()

1984-
 ()

1980-
()

1976(Goes Dem)-
()


^^^^ just for your info...........


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on May 22, 2004, 04:08:07 AM
Durham ain't exactly coastal... has anyone got a map of the 1998 Senate race in NC?


Title: Re:Mason-Dixon: Kerry/Edwards could win NC!
Post by: Nym90 on May 24, 2004, 01:31:24 AM
HoopsCubs--

You should register to vote in the fantasy elections. We have a presidential election coming up in June. Here's the link...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=13;action=display;threadid=2153;start=330