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Election Archive => 2004 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: Flying Dog on November 05, 2003, 08:25:32 pm



Title: Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Flying Dog on November 05, 2003, 08:25:32 pm
As you know the democratic field of candidates is crowded.  I am trying to seperate the contenders from the pretenders.


 1:kuchinich-pretender
 2:Sharpton-pretender
 3:braun-pretender
 4:edwards-pretender
 5:dean:contender
 6:kerry:contender
 7:gephardt-contender
 8:lieberman-contender
 9:clark:contender


as always please share your comments


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: NorthernDog on November 05, 2003, 09:38:06 pm
I consider Clarke to be a pretender.  He has never held elective office and is hard to pin down on the issues.  His campaign is sinking pretty quickly too (not much organization). He's running for Sec. of Defense or Secretary of State.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: agcatter on November 05, 2003, 10:27:59 pm
Agree Clark is a pretender.  He's sinking fast.  lousy organization, but mostly he's lacked credibility due to talking out of both sides of his mouth on the war.  Also, those goofy acusations about white house phone calls to him and secret memos from the administration about going after 7 middle eastern countries (?)  Oh yeah.  He's also an opportunist,  Bush, Rumsfield etc were great a year ago now says thry're horrible.  The guy is a goofball with no convictions beyond what is politically expedient at the moment.

I keep hearing all that stuff about how brilliant the Clintons are when it comes to politics.  Yep, they were really brilliant to have dredged up Clark.  Wish Hillary would come out and run so we could finish her off once and for all.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: DarthKosh on November 05, 2003, 11:54:40 pm
Clark is DOA.  He had a big splash and then sank like a rock.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: tweed on November 06, 2003, 04:17:05 pm
It's too early to tell if Clark is for real.  He can't really win any big states, which will hurt him in the primary....

I agree with JTF's list except that Lieberman is a pretender.

NEWSFLASH: Dean leads Kerry in NH 38-24%.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 10, 2003, 02:51:33 pm
I think that Dean, Gephardt and Clark are the clear front-runners at the moment, and that Edwards may be a dark horse(and the flag "incident" could not have come at a better time for him. He needs to get more publicity).

Kerry has just sacked his campaign manager and Lieberman... is just Lieberman...


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: DarthKosh on November 10, 2003, 04:04:58 pm
I think that Dean, Gephardt and Clark are the clear front-runners at the moment, and that Edwards may be a dark horse(and the flag "incident" could not have come at a better time for him. He needs to get more publicity).

Kerry has just sacked his campaign manager and Lieberman... is just Lieberman...

Clark is not a frontrunner.  Other the the first two weeks he has been falling behind.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: lopaka on November 10, 2003, 05:40:52 pm
Howdy, all!-To be honest, it's hard for me to see anybody besides Dean winning the nomination at this point. It mystifies me how Gephart is continued to be talked of in the first tier. Nobody in MISSOURI takes him that seriously, outside of some St. Louis area labor bosses.

Lieberman-no chance, never had.

It pretty much gets down to how quickly people can coalese behind an 'anybody but Dean' candidate. And if it's Kerry, HD is the nominee, because HD has been beating him on his home turf.

I think Clark points up to as much as anything, how, except under the most extremly unusual circumstances, one can start as late as he did. Can anybody imagine an RFK-style candidate these days who declared after the New Hampshire primary? Virtually unthinkable.

I guess Edwards is the best prospect of the long-shots, but he's been running for a while now, with generally favorable press, and has gained zero traction. But again, if it were to somehow very quickly (and I mean very) boil down to Edwards-Dean and the others got behind Edwards, I suppose it's possible.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Michael Z on November 10, 2003, 05:51:16 pm
Hi there Lopaka, welcome aboard. :)

Very true, Lieberman doesn't stand a chance. A Lieberman ticket would be Mondale '84 all over again, and most Democrats realise that.

Edwards looks more like a potential VP nominee. Way too inexperienced to run for President. Plus he has that slimey lawyer exterior which is bound to turn off a lot of voters. (No offence to any lawyers present here intended, of course...).

Clark is definitely a pretender, simply a last-gasp attempt by the Clintonite wing of the party to find a halfway credible "Stop Dean"-candidate.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: NorthernDog on November 10, 2003, 08:49:01 pm
I think Clark points up to as much as anything, how, except under the most extremly unusual circumstances, one can start as late as he did. Can anybody imagine an RFK-style candidate these days who declared after the New Hampshire primary? Virtually unthinkable.
 
Welcome aboard Kansas.  The only way a late comer can succeed is if he's/she's well known - like Gore, or Hillary.  It seems like the whole primary calendar keeps getting moved back earlier and earlier!


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: emergingDmajority on November 10, 2003, 11:30:40 pm
Kerry- Still a contender, quickly turning into a pretender

Dean- 60% pretender 40% contender. I like him, deep down don't think he can win

Gephardt- Contender, slowly gaining steam

Edwards- Ditto

Clark- Beat up a bit, still a contender

Lieberman- Waning, still a contender, hanging by a thread.

Kucinich- There's the door Dennis.....

Sharpton- Thanks for the comic relief & passion

Mosely Braun- Nice lady, but it's time to gracefully bow out


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Demrepdan on November 10, 2003, 11:45:27 pm
Kerry- Still a contender, quickly turning into a pretender

Dean- 60% pretender 40% contender. I like him, deep down don't think he can win

Gephardt- Contender, slowly gaining steam

Edwards- Ditto

Clark- Beat up a bit, still a contender

Lieberman- Waning, still a contender, hanging by a thread.

Kucinich- There's the door Dennis.....

Sharpton- Thanks for the comic relief & passion

Mosely Braun- Nice lady, but it's time to gracefully bow out

I think you're the first person whom I entirely agree with so far, as to who are true contenders and pretenders. The only contenders left seem to be Gephardt, Edwards, and...... *giggles*...Dean...*wahhahahah!*


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2003, 12:41:12 pm
Edwards is finally moving in the right direction, Deans remark could not have come at a better time for him and he also "looks right".
One to watch.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Beet on November 11, 2003, 05:44:18 pm
I would almost definitely get behind anybody-but-Dean. I have heard him speak and frankly he was not that great.

Interestingly enough, a recent poll I saw had Kerry and Mosely-Braun EVEN at 7 percent each. I forgot which poll it was but I remember it clearly because it was quite surprising.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: emergingDmajority on November 11, 2003, 06:51:11 pm
I saw that poll too, very hard to believe. I mean Mosely-Braun is only there to divy up the Sharpton vote.

here is the zogby poll

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=755

Lieberman is a sinking ship, and most of his supporters have found life rafts and floated over to the SS Gephardt, some maybe to Edwards who I believe is gaining ground but it's not reflected in this poll

then there are the all important endorsements. The Clinton's and Gore are bound to come out eventually to support somebody other than Dean and that should give the candidate a huge boost. 34% are not sure and are still waiting for the Big Dog to speak : )


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: NorthernDog on November 18, 2003, 04:16:36 pm
In the latest New Hampshire Poll (Marist 11/11-13) Dean was leading in that state with 39% to Kerry 24%.  Clarke was down to just 4%!
I think Clarke is a pretender for sure.  His supporters are not the party activists.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Special K on November 19, 2003, 07:24:17 pm
Here's what I think:

Howard Dean - He started out as a longshot with no chance of winning and has soared into clear frontrunner status.  Dean is a success story, at least in the primary race.  I think Dean's got the primary won already.

John Kerry - At first, it was a Kerry/Lieberman race.  Now Kerry is a pretender, simple as that.  Even if he *did* win, I don't think he'd have a chance against Bush.  There's just something about him--he doesn't have "the look," as, say this next guy does...

John Edwards - He was the Democrat every Republican feared.  Now he's out of the race.  Pretender.

Wesley Clark - He seemed like the perfect candidate, but he's had too many shakeups in his campaign.  Mix that with a failure to get out a message (any kind of message) and you've got yourself another pretender.  Not one person knows where he stands on anything and it doesn't really look like Clark is trying to change that...

Joe Lieberman - He's too conservative to win the primary.  Pretender.

Dick Gephardt - He was a pretender at first, then suddenly became a contender.  This race is now a Dean/Gephardt race.

Sharpton / Kucinich / Moseley Braun - They don't deserve to even be listed.  They have no chance of winning.  They're all only running to satisfy their ego.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2003, 12:59:49 pm
NOTHING is sown up yet.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Wakie on November 20, 2003, 05:19:35 pm
Here's my take ...

Howard Dean - Contender.  Dean has run a very smart campaign.  He used the internet, he spent money early to get money later, he drew new people into the political process, and he got people excited.  That said, there's not a whole lot of substance there and the "angry guy" pesonae, while fun, is not electable.  He may take the primary but unless he becomes more statesman-like he won't last in the General election.

Wesley Clark - Pretender.  He started out with great #'s only to see them flop.  On paper he looks like a great candidate but in reality he doesn't really reveal much about himself.  I see him more as a VP candidate.  He's too inexperienced or the Presidential campaign.

John Kerry - Contender.  On paper he's the ideal candidate.  A war hero, ivy-league educated, experience in law enforcement, foreign policy, and with the SBA (Small Business Administration).  He's the most #'s oriented of the candidates.  His problem is that he's dry.  You get the feeling if you gave him a few drinks he could be a great candidate.  Maybe the new campaign manager will refocus things and get his #'s up.

Al Sharpton - Pretender.  Not a serious candidate, but the debates are certainly more fun with him in them.

Carol Mosley Braun - Pretender.  America is still a society of glass ceilings.  I think she is campaigning more for a high cabinet position.  Frankly I think she'd do well as Attorney General.  And frankly, I think America could use an African American woman as Attorney General.

Dennis Kucinich - Pretender.  He doesn't realize he's a pretender but he is.  Simply put, Dennis is too liberal.  His candidacy keeps Nader from running and draws the Green Party in closer to the Democrats.

John Edwards - Dark Horse Contender.  He's very slow out of the gates, but many Democrats I've talked to like him as a second choice candidate.  If he can gather some fire or garner a lot of press I wouldn't be shocked to see him make a run at it.  Frankly though he may just be 4 years too early.

Dick Gephardt - Contender.  You have to consider him as a contender because coming in he was probably the most prominant of the candidates.  His polling numbers are high enough and it is early enough that he could still make a run at it.

Joe Leiberman - Pretender.  I really have to wonder what he was thinking in running.  He's too conservative for the Democrats, too liberal for the Republicans, and too dry for most of America.

If I had to give them chances of winning the primary I'd put the following:

*Dean = 50%
*Kerry = 15%
*Gephardt = 11%
*Edwards = 10%
*Clark = 6%
*Kucinich = 3%
*Leiberman = 2.5%
*Braun = 1%
*Sharpton = 0.5%


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: emergingDmajority1 on November 20, 2003, 06:56:32 pm
Clark should've known better than to appear on FOX News with the Asman. You just knew they were going to bait him, and Clark was biting.

His outburst didn't help, I'm sure FOX already sent the tape to the GOP, mission accomplished.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: NorthernDog on November 20, 2003, 08:16:44 pm
Here's my take ...
Dick Gephardt - Contender.  You have to consider him as a contender because coming in he was probably the most prominant of the candidates.  His polling numbers are high enough and it is early enough that he could still make a run at it.
I keep thinking the same thing. But when I read left-leaning blogs they usually can't stand the guy.  And his poll numbers in NH are in the tank (I think it was 8%) If he's nominated will the Dean supporters bolt to a Green candidate?


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Michael Z on November 21, 2003, 12:10:52 pm
No mention of Lyndon LaRouche?

It's a conspiracy, I tells ya. ;)


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: tweed on November 21, 2003, 04:49:48 pm
Odds of winning the primary:

Dean: 60%
Gephardt: 25%
Kerry: 10%
Others: 5%


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: DarthKosh on November 21, 2003, 05:01:38 pm

It's looking like Dean has this wrapped up.  Barring any surprises.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 22, 2003, 06:15:59 am
No it is not sown up yet... You might like it to be but...


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: DarthKosh on November 22, 2003, 09:59:51 am
No it is not sown up yet... You might like it to be but...

Considering Dean is leading in NH and he is starting to lead in other states.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Michael Z on November 22, 2003, 10:04:17 am
It's still too early to tell in my opinion. Dean has the momentum, but so did Harkin in 92.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 22, 2003, 11:54:33 am
...And Henry Wallace was clear favourite to be Roosevelt's running mate in 1944.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: NorthernDog on November 23, 2003, 10:02:10 pm
Alright, I have a question for all ya big dem's.  Why does Dean even bother coming to Idaho?  I honestly can't think of any strategy as to why he would come here.  But he did....
Right now Dean is collecting campaign money-there's probably a few California Liberals hanging out in ID for the ski season.   Dean only carries Idaho if Sharpton is the GOP nominee :)


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Paul on November 24, 2003, 01:05:38 pm
Dean hardly has the primary sown up.  The real problem for him is that some of the pretenders or "dark horse" candidates have decided to disregard NH and IA and instead focus on Feb 3 primaries, mainly in the South and West.
Even if Dean sweeps NH, how much will one week of media coverage really help in states like South Carolina or Oklahoma?  And, if Gephardt wins Iowa, then he and Dean will be splitting the annointing.
I think the big test will be who is standing after Feb 3.  Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman could all show well in these states.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: John on December 01, 2003, 02:41:45 pm
dean is the Real Contender here
News Flase:
Bush is Leading Dean: 49 - 45
So Bush is winning a Close one


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: jravnsbo on December 01, 2003, 02:57:05 pm
I have never seen Dean that close where did you see that poll John?



Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: Flying Dog on December 01, 2003, 04:18:17 pm
dean is the Real Contender here
News Flase:
Bush is Leading Dean: 49 - 45
So Bush is winning a Close one
all polls i saw say bush is leading dean by 10-15 points


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: DarthKosh on December 01, 2003, 04:19:34 pm
dean is the Real Contender here
News Flase:
Bush is Leading Dean: 49 - 45
So Bush is winning a Close one

Still to early for those kind of polls.


Title: Re:Contenders and pretenders
Post by: jravnsbo on December 01, 2003, 04:25:39 pm
I agree, get a nominee first then lets talk.  Plus the longer the Dems take to pickj a nominee the better for Bush.  

If it would go tot the convention that is JUly and August is the olympics and few will care for that month, then GOP has its convention in Sept for a late boost before stretch run.


Title: Re: Contenders and pretenders
Post by: YRABNNRM on February 13, 2007, 06:45:59 pm
Interesting to see how many considered Gephardt to be a contender.

Back then, I did too. I honestly thought he was the candidate with the best chance of beating GWB, along with Clark.