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Title: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Moooooo on April 05, 2006, 08:12:47 AM Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Arizona%20Governor%20March.htm):
ARIZONA GOVERNOR Janet Napolitano (D) 54% Don Goldwater (R) 34% Janet Napolitano (D) 56% Jan Florez (R) 28% Janet Napolitano (D) 59% John Greene (R) 25% ARIZONA SENATE Jon Kyl (R) 56% Jim Pederson (D) 33% Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Flying Dog on April 05, 2006, 04:52:08 PM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset.
Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Speed of Sound on April 05, 2006, 05:29:53 PM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset. :D Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Gabu on April 05, 2006, 06:45:11 PM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset. That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm. Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: ATFFL on April 05, 2006, 09:15:47 PM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset. That reminds me of that time that that election projection website predicted a Kerry win in Utah because of a faulty projection algorithm. Algorithm? Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day." Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Gabu on April 05, 2006, 09:32:17 PM Algorithm? Fancy word for "assume whatever trend was in the last two polls will continue until election day." Well, the way he made the calculated prediction was essentially to get the best fit for the data points to two straight lines (one for Kerry and one for Bush) and then make the prediction be whatever the percentages are when the x-value on the line is November 2. Unfortunately, there were only two whole polls from Utah, which made this procedure rather subject to the margin of error, and he edited the algorithm to simply use the last poll received if there were three polls or less from that state. Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Jake on April 06, 2006, 07:21:30 PM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset. Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there. Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: MasterJedi on April 07, 2006, 10:37:05 AM Pederson has moved up. I saw him at 27% in the last poll. Hmmm......I smell an upset. :D You lefties need to know when you can't win. :P Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: TheresNoMoney on April 07, 2006, 02:03:29 PM Yes, Scoonie says it will be within 10%, but why stop there. And I stick by it. Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Democratic Hawk on April 08, 2006, 05:54:56 PM I can imagine both Napolitano and Kyl winning re-election by similar margins over their Republican and Democrat opponents
Dave Title: Re: AZ: Napolitano and Kyl cruising... Post by: Moooooo on April 08, 2006, 11:03:35 PM Within .5% by election day.
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