Talk Elections

Queenslanders are going to the polls on 7th February 2004.

They will elect a unicameral, 89-seat Parliament for a (maximum) three year term.

Currently Labor's Peter Beattie is premier and has a solid 66 seats in the 89-seat Legislative Assembly.

The Liberals - a mere three seats! - and the Nationals - just twelve - have an almightly (read: virtually impossible) task to win government ahead of them.

Others are the largely dead two-member One Nation (Pauline Hanson's old party) and six independents.

Virtually all pundits are predicting a convincing Beattie win, with most also predicting a modest correction of sorts in terms of the conservatives gaining seats.

I think Labor will be unlucky to lose a dozen.  It will continue to control the Parliament solidly.

Another three years of Peter Beattie for Queensland! I don't buy his line that he needs a mandate to fix the whoppingly big problems in the Families Department (what has Labor done more or less continuously to fix it since 1989???)

I am the first to admit though, that Beattie continues to deliver decent economic conditions, and the political 'anorak' in me respects him for  another reason...

Although Beattie's electoral success in 2001 destroyed the Coalition, he was instrumental in helping the late great Denis Murphy revive the ALP in the aftermath of the 1974 Labor wipeout by the Coalition, as state secretary of the Labor Party during the eighties.  In other words he gave Queenslanders a modern, bi-polar party system for the first time ever.  Hopefully we'll get one again at this election.

Predictions anyone on the likely outcome?

http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/

I'd guess that the ALP will be re-elected, although I'm not sure how big their majority will be.
The Nationals will probably come second, although the Liberals will probably win more votes than them.
I'm worried that One Nation might make a strong showing... please tell me I'm wrong...

Queensland is a weird place... I see to recall that it was run by a right wing nutter called Joh Bjelke-Petersen, who wanted to blow a hole in the Great Barrier Reef for some reason, for ages.

I've just looked at the ABC site and it's excellent!
Thanks for the link :)

Labor hold all the states, don't they?

Australia is an odd country politically. Together very conservative, but seperated quite left. IIRC, Labor have massive majorities in Tasmania, Victoria, ACT and Queensland, and a fairly large one in NSW.

If labor lose the state election, how do you think it will affect the upcoming federal election?

Well, regarding One Nation, I doubt it will do well at all.  Their current two members are both likely to be returned though -- but in practice, as right-wing, rural independents.  Both seats were previously safe-as-houses National Party seats.  Both MPs will support the Nationals in the House.  

I think the ONP is fairly redundant, as Hanson has said she won't be campaigning.  However, the constituency that was attracted to ONP is still there - rural and semi-rural, socially conservative, economically interventionist and protectionist.   They will support Nats in some areas, ONP in others, but most importantly, right-wing independents.  And their votes will probably be securely channelled back to the Coalition via preferences (we have STV voting system in Australia).

Having said that, this will be happening in traditional Coalition seats, so it won't eat much into (usually) marginal, or Labor, seats.

You're right about Sir Joh Bjelke Petersen.  He was premier from 1968-1987.  And Queensland is different, but not weird : )  Its values are deeply anti-metropolitan, even in metropolitan areas.

Yes, they do.  First time ever.  I think this is for two reasons.

1. Australian voters don't like one party to get all the spoils - "keeping the b@stards honest", etc.  John Howard has looked fairly entrenched as PM, so to counter-balance a federal Lib-Nat government, they are preferring Labor state governments.

2. Australian voters are deeply, deeply, deeply (!) utilitarian.  There isn't much of a European-style, romantic edge to politics here at all.  So Labor state governments now tend to be very pragmatic, try to be fiscally responsible, with dour, sensible conservative leaders (Bob Carr in NSW, Mike Rann in SA, Steve Bracks in Victoria) or effusive but non-threatening premiers (Peter Beattie in Queensland, Jim Bacon in Tasmania).  Sort of New Labour, before New Labour was invented.   The sort of Labour that would never have led the Gang of Four to start the SDP, because there would have been no need for an SDP.  

Labour in Australia at a state level is probably the purest form of New Labour anywhere.  More than any Clinton Democrat was.  So at a state level, they're not "left" per se -- but hedging their bets, party wise, and rewarding Labor for jettisoning some ideological baggage over time.

I'd be very suprised if they lose.  

There will not be many lessons for the feds from the QLD election.  Queensland state politics is very state-orientated and isn't easily influenced by Federal patterns.  Always has been.

One Nation won't do well? Excellent news :)

Weird is a perjorative word... would eccentric be accurate?

One question: Why did Sir Joh Bjelke Petersen want to blow the Great Barrier Reef?
Is it because he could?

I think the Labor party will win easily. Many Queenslanders like Peter Beattie and will vote Labor because of him.

I think it was responsible to call the election and then who ever is elected decides how to handle the foster care problem.

I never knew that the Queensland the Premier could only serve three terms. What about Joh Bjelke Petersen? He was there for more then 15  years.

One question: Why did Sir Joh Bjelke Petersen want to blow the Great Barrier Reef?
Is it because he could?

Probably a bit of that.  I have a very vague recollection of what you are talking about.  I think he wanted a shipping channel through it or something, to help open up North QLD which itself is a fine idea, but to do that didn't require doing that to the reef.  To be honest I've no idea.  And we should all be pleased it didn't happen!

Queensland has a bit of a reputation for producing...er... unusual people... ;)

Well, as everyone knew, a solid win yet again for Beattie.  As of last night the count stands at:

ALP 61
NAT 14
LIB 4
ONP 1
IND 4

Undecided: 5

The undecideds are all traditional Liberal seats.  I reckon the Liberals will win 2 and the others will stay with Labor.

A bit of movement of seats around the place, but a nett Labor loss of about five seats.

The real disaster is the QLD Liberals.  The Nats are showing signs of life in the rural and regional areas, and are showing signs of giving Labor a scare in heartland in some Labor seats next time....  but the Liberals have totally stalled in Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast.    I could rattle off a few reasons, but an much better informed analysis of the campaign unfolding can be found here:

http://nationalforum.com.au/the_domain/archives/currumbin2cook/week_2004_02_01.html

Lots of analysis will be in Monday's papers for sure.  I'll keep you posted.

I was right... the ALP was re-elected, and the NPA got more seats than the Liberals despite winning less votes.