Talk Elections

I believe that Kerry/ Richardson would be the best pick. It would give us a definate win in New Mexico. Increase the chances in Arizona. It would clinch Nevada and give us a possible shot a Texas. Why? He can capture the Hispanic vote. Plus, he is a midwesterner. Edwards is also a good pick for he has charisma and a charm. He could capture the east. Any other VP would still give Kerry a win but by a smaller margin. Oh, and how do you post pictures on your topic. I want to show some interesting Electoral maps.

I like Richardson, but he is unknwn back East.  Edwards would be better because of charisma and labor.  He would lock PA, OH, an WI, and MI and have an outsiders chance at MO, WV, VA, and long shot NC.  Not enough EV's for Richardson. NM(5), AZ(10), and NV(5). Compared to OH(20), PA(21), WI(10) and MI(17).  It wold be better to lock what Gore had and took a crack at Ohio, West Virginia, or the Upper Southeast.  

I think we will win the East. My Prediction shows that The Democrats will win every eastern state except Alabama and Mississippi. We are looking at a Kerry landslide. Richardson will win the west and Kerry will win the east.

You are delusional if you think Bush can lose Texas.

to put an image put "img" and "/img" around the url, but in brackets
use the button if that's vague {which i think it is ;) }

also, Lamrock--you should get an avatar, and join in on fantasy elections :)

and I agree that Richardson would be the best pick.

I wish I could think like you, but it's not happening.  I would also add Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana as definite Bush,  South Carolina as highly likely Bush/longshot Kerry, Virginia and North Carolina as a possible turnover and West Virginia and Florida as too close to call.  Rest will go Kerry.

I think the VP pick will be huge for Kerry.  I really think it'll be a close election and the VP pick could tilt it either way in some states.

For example, I don't think Kerry on his own will win Missouri, Ohio, or West Virginia.  But if you put Gephadt on the ticket I think those states become more likely, esp. Missouri.

I think Edwards is overall the most obvious, best known, and of course placed well in many of the state primaries.
I think it's obvious that the pick cannot be a NewEnglander.  

Wes Clark is an interesting choice...he could bring in Arkansas (I'd say that's safe) but that's only 6EVs.  He might bring more white men over to Kerry than other VP choices (like edwards), but we know white men don't vote D anyway.  There's an argument that instead of shoring up women or minorities, we should choose a VP that does well with white men, the group Bush has most support from.   If you follow that logic, I'd say Clark is the choice.

So anyway, I'm sure there are lots of people in the Kerry campaign with a lot more resources and and data than I have, playing all the angles and variables as we speak.  I wonder what they're looking for...?

One thing for sure, I'm not going to make a prediction until the VP is chosen.

Clark should figure in a Kerry administration, perhaps as Secretary of State... but I can't really see him as VP pick. Two Vietnam veterans on the ticket might be overdoing the Band Of Brothers thing just a little bit.

A VP should add variety as well as acumen. Edwards would be the perfect choice for Kerry as he'd level out most of Kerry's perceived weaknesses. Where Kerry is from the North, Edwards is from the South. Where Kerry is uncharismatic, Edwards is entertaining. Where Kerry is regarded as aloof and distant, Edwards portrays himself as a 'man of the people'. I've been saying this for ages (even as early as the Iowa caucus), but Edwards would be the best choice for Kerry.

Of course there is still the VERY distant possibility of a Kerry/McCain ticket, but it's not exactly the most realistic option. (Even though one thing's for sure, the rumours of disloyalty have definitely harmed McCain's chances of receiving the Republican nomination for 2008, no matter what the result will be this year.)

I believe this is your prediction Lamrock?

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May I just say, it ain't gonna happen, Kerry is about as likely to get that big a margin as Michael Dukakis was.

I think Edwards would be the best pick.  Richardson would probably be better for N.M, Nevada & Arizona, but Edwards would be better elsewhere.  Ohio, Pa for example are states which would definatley go Kerry with Edwards as VP, with Richardson those states probably still lean Kerry, but much closer.  I like Richardson, but he can probably only impact the west Edwards could impact the nation itself by a few points, also North Carolina & Virginia become battlegrounds with Edwards on the ticket with the possibility of South Carolina as well.  

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am still laughing about this map. Lamrock email me at JeffHokie@msn.com. If Kerry wins those percentages of those states and wins ALL those states you have as Kerry I will give you 500 dollars.

That is crazy talk!!! Yes i know JFK that is not yours.

I think Edwards is too obvious.
look at recent picks, most were a little surprising.

I hope he don't pick Edwards!!!

Edwards

I have to admit Edwards, as much as I despise the man.  But its hard to pin down a state that would go for Kerry because of him, other than maybe WV.. or just possibly Ohio.

So no one else here things Gephardt would be a good pick?  For Missouri, West Virginia, and Ohio, perhaps even influence western Pennsylvania...?

He's rather disliked outside his congressional district here in Missouri.  We have a big St. Louis against the rest of the state antagonism here.

I'm not sure.  I think it would be good for Kerry to choose someone everyone recognizes, but not someone everyone expects.

Tom Brokaw maybe?  Or any Republican (not necessarily McCain), Cohen maybe.

And there are some good dark horses, like Senator Harry Leid of Nevada.

I really hope that Gephardt does not get picked. We need a newer face to the Democratic Party, and a Gephardt pick would be a tragic mistake. Luckily, I don't think Gephardt won't get picked, but I would start cursing at the Democratic Party for a few days if he did.

That's interesting, since you used to be in favour of Bayh... perhaps the strength of my argument convinced you? :D

Tweed has been a hard-core Edwards guy for a while.

I decided Bayh was not the guy back in April.

I would say that Edwards is probably the best choice. Not because of his Southern appeal or ability to carry an particular states, but because he really does bring a whole, powerful new persona and new issues to the campaign. The only problem is he is more likeable and a stronger candidate in nearly every way than Kerry. So Kerry would have to be careful Edwards does not overnalnce the ticket, making it bottom heavy.

Oh, and stop staring, she's mine!

The more people look at Edwards as the image for the Kerry/Edwards ticket the better.  If he's chosen, Kerry would be wise to have a lot of the media focus on Edwards.

Because of the strength of my argument? :D

(Finds it extremely difficult to pay attention to anything M is saying due to his new signature...)


Dang.

I agree.  Edwards would be a great choice.  I'd love to see him and Cheney go at it.

Just for fun, let's take a look at Edward's performance in the primaries...here are his best states (percentage and rank)

North Carolina 51%
South Carolina 44%
Georgia 41%
Ohio 34%
Wisconsin 34%
Iowa 31%
Utah 29%
Minnesota 27%
Tennessee 26%
Virginia 26%
Missouri 24%

Edwards came in first in the Carolinas, but all these other finishes were second place.  I think he's well liked in the south and in areas of the Mid-West.  I don't think he'd help much with the Pacific coast states or New Mexico, in which he got second place in only California with 19%.  He didn't garner too much support in New England either, but that's not exactly a region that I'm concerned about.  

I think Edwards would give Kerry what he needs...a certain Clintonesque, passionate southerner.  I'm saying he's my definite choice...but he's a good one.  

It will be a cold day in Hell before North and South Carolina turns Democratic again.  If Edwards gets pick, MANY of the non-Republican voters will go vote so Edwards don't win our state.

I'm not sure about Bush doing better in North Carolina because Edwards is chosen..that's going over the top.

However, look at the states below Georgia.  Ohio, the number one battleground for 04.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, etc.

Yeah I think Edwards might be the biggest help in Ohio and Wisconsin.  If we win those two states, we're in pretty good shape.  
Yeah, I'd agree with Lunar about Edwards bringing Republicans out of the woodwork to vote against him.   I don't know North Carolina, never been there, but I know that Edwards defeated his opponent in 1998 pretty soundly, 51.2-47.
That said, Gore lost the state in 2000 even more soundly, 43-56.  That's a big deficit to overcome, and it's probably unlikely.

*Waving from the far back* Hillary Clinton!

Edwards is the obvious pick and I am more then sure that the Bush camp has about 100 ways to destroy him. It will be someone that we haven't heard much about. The Bush camp was preparing for a Dean candidacy the Democrats knew that and ditched him at the last minute. No matter what Edwards MIGHT bring, he is off the table. Look for Vilsack, Hillary or Brokaw.

Really?  It seems like Edwards has been out there working for it though.
There also seems to be a lot of support for him to be VP, considering he was the second strongest in the primaries.
Personally, I thought he was running a much better campaign than Kerry...his speeches were better...his message was better.  
Carville called his "Two Americas" stump speech the best of the primaries.  I'd agree.

I think if we can get Ohio we can win.  I think Edwards would bring out a little extra there...

I'm sure the Bush camp has built up so much mud and have it ready to sling at this guy that Kerry doesn't want to touch him with a 10 foot pole. Also, I can tell how Kerrys personality is everytime I see him on t.v. Kerry is all about the ego trip and Edwards will outshine him on almost every level. Kerry wants to be the head of the show and not have to hold hands with anyone. He will go for someone with less glare on him, like a Wes Clark or Vilsack w/a oddball possibility of Hillary. Edwards is out IMHO that's my prediction, put it on the record. :)

Just some more humble ramblings from a humble southerner. :)

Even if he picks Edwards, don't worry. DON'T CHANGE BUSH IN THE MIDDLE OF A WAR.

Oddball possibility?  You were so certain earlier.  Our bet still holds though ;)

Anyway, Kerry seems to  be making Edwards go through some practice runs through the key states to see how he holds up.  Obviously that will contribute to the final decision.

Edwards has certainly been getting a workout out there.  I heard he brought the house down at the Florida Dem State Convention.  

Wes Clark has also been moving around.

We've already gotten a taste of the mud-slinging from the primary season.  Honestly, I thought the republicans had better attacks against Clark than on Edwards.

The only thing I could here them say about Edwards was that he's a trial attorney and all that...If people really cared about how a presidential candidate got their money, Bush would never have won.

The more I think about it the more I think Edwards is the best choice.  

Wes Clark I see as being too obvious, another military man, not the greatest speaker.  A great guy, no doubt, but I don't know if he'd complement the ticket the right way.