Talk Elections

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Consider%20Voting%20For.htm (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Consider%20Voting%20For.htm)
 
  June 1, 2004--Fifty-four percent (54%) of American voters say that they would consider voting for George W. Bush under certain circumstances. A Rasmussen Reports survey of 2,000 Likely Voters finds that 39% will not vote for the President under any circumstances.

As for Senator Kerry, 49% say they would consider voting for him while 39% definitely would not. Selected demographic breakdowns are available for RR Premium Members.

These results come at a time when the candidates have been locked in a dead heat for months. Ninety-one percent (91%) of those who would consider voting for Kerry already plan to vote for him. Just 3% of those who would consider Kerry are currently planning to vote for Bush.

However, just 81% of those who would consider voting for Bush are planning to vote for him at this time. Another 10% of these potential supporters are currently planning to vote for Kerry

Among those who currently say they would vote for "some other candidate," 35% say they would consider voting for Kerry while 28% would consider voting for Bush.

However, among those who are currently undecided, 64% would consider voting for Bush and 48% would consider voting for Kerry. These figures challenge the conventional wisdom that undecideds will break for the challenger.

Twelve percent (12%) of all voters are willing to consider both Bush and Kerry. We will profile these important swing voters tomorrow (Wednesday).

Supplemental, demographic, data available for RR Premium Members Learn about Premium Membership
The fact that just 49% would consider voting for Kerry is consistent with Presidential history. Democrats typically win the White House with a minority of the popular vote. With the notable exception of George W. Bush, Republicans typically win with a majority of the popular vote.

The national telephone survey of 2,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 28-31, 2004. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
 

I saw that today.  I immediately thought that this would indicate that for the moment at least, the Bush numbers have a bit more potential for growth.  At least, that seems like the case on the surface.

I read it the same way. The soft middle looks more willing to go with Bush. They are either less interested now, or are waiting for the bad news to go away.

Remember what I told you about the undecided voters being closer to the Bush voters on the issues?

Indeed, on many issues the Kerry voters are pretty closely divided whereas the Bush voters overwhelmingly have the same position as Bush.