Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2006 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 04:59:49 PM



Title: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 04:59:49 PM
Allen (R) - 43%
Webb (D) -  43%


This is a SCOOP only...

Mason Dixon hasnt yet released its results.

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/2006/09/mason_dixon_res.html


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Eraserhead on September 29, 2006, 05:02:54 PM
Holy crap!


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Adlai Stevenson on September 29, 2006, 05:06:51 PM
Well I can't help but feel smug and I will be slapped down for this but I told you so!  All the people on the SUSA VA Senate threads called me basically wrong when I questioned how Allen could be winning 27% of African Americans and 75% of Hispanic Americans.  I always felt this was close and now, everyone's favourite pollster is behind Adlai! 

If I have one niggling doubt, isn't 43%-43% a bit low?  Allen must have sunk pretty badly. 


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Eraserhead on September 29, 2006, 05:13:26 PM
Well if this true, everyone on here by now knows that MD's record puts SUSA's to shame. Also I think they mentioned this poll was coming out on Hardball tonight. If Allen is at 43%..he is in serious, serious trouble.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 29, 2006, 05:18:10 PM
It hasn't been released yet so, I wouldn't put this up.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 05:34:30 PM
It hasn't been released yet so, I wouldn't put this up.
Thats why i said its a scoop only.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: poughies on September 29, 2006, 05:38:18 PM
Whoever said hardball is correct. My poor papa thought that this poll was a Webb internal poll..... Its not.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 29, 2006, 05:44:24 PM
I wouldn't get my hopes up and the poll hasn't been released. At any rate Webb don't have the lead so I wouldn't get my hopes either.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on September 29, 2006, 05:46:40 PM
From the site linked to:

MASON DIXON RESULTS
Please be advised that Mason-Dixon has not released a poll on the Virginia Senate race.  Please remove any such reference from your web site.

 

J. Brad Coker
Managing Director

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 29, 2006, 05:47:42 PM
Please delete this thread, it should not be on this website.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: ATFFL on September 29, 2006, 05:58:20 PM
Stickied as an example of why you should not post polls until you see them from a reputable source.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Sam Spade on September 29, 2006, 06:00:36 PM
Well I can't help but feel smug and I will be slapped down for this but I told you so!  All the people on the SUSA VA Senate threads called me basically wrong when I questioned how Allen could be winning 27% of African Americans and 75% of Hispanic Americans.  I always felt this was close and now, everyone's favourite pollster is behind Adlai! 

If I have one niggling doubt, isn't 43%-43% a bit low?  Allen must have sunk pretty badly. 

I am concluding that you didn't read my post.  I never said you were wrong in your estimation.  I merely said that you don't know anything about how polls are conducted or about statistics in general.  That's all.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Sam Spade on September 29, 2006, 06:01:01 PM
Stickied as an example of why you should not post polls until you see them from a reputable source.

Thank you.  Perhaps people won't be as "trigger-happy" next time.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 29, 2006, 06:10:54 PM
The poll is still real though. Unless they are making stuff on Hardball (which granted is quite possible :)).


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on September 29, 2006, 06:12:47 PM
The poll is still real though. Unless they are making stuff on Hardball (which granted is quite possible :)).

Chris Matthews is definetly a closet Democratic strategist, I mean I trust Stephen Colbert more.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 06:14:25 PM
Please delete this thread, it should not be on this website.
Why delete it when I say its only a scoop and they havent released the poll yet. It is in the best interest of everyone to get any information and then if it turns out to be false change it.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 29, 2006, 06:15:41 PM
The poll is still real though. Unless they are making stuff on Hardball (which granted is quite possible :)).

Chris Matthews is definetly a closet Democratic strategist, I mean I trust Stephen Colbert more.

Not really even a closet Democrat. He worked for Carter for years.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: poughies on September 29, 2006, 06:16:04 PM
THEN what is this?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15065908/

?


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 06:16:26 PM
The poll is still real though. Unless they are making stuff on Hardball (which granted is quite possible :)).

Chris Matthews is definetly a closet Democratic strategist, I mean I trust Stephen Colbert more.
I dont know, Chris Mathews sends mixed signals all over the place. And he has donated money to reps.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: DownWithTheLeft on September 29, 2006, 06:16:34 PM
The poll is still real though. Unless they are making stuff on Hardball (which granted is quite possible :)).

Chris Matthews is definetly a closet Democratic strategist, I mean I trust Stephen Colbert more.

Not really even a closet Democrat. He worked for Carter for years.

True, but Neil Cavuto worked for Carter, and he's not exactly a liberal


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: poughies on September 29, 2006, 06:17:33 PM
and this

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/

????

THIS POLL SEEMS REAL FAKE ON NATIONAL WEBSITE! Either a. the poll is real or b. someone is going to get fired.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 06:18:13 PM
Yes I believe one can take the Whoops Fake Poll banner down now.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: ATFFL on September 29, 2006, 07:03:47 PM
Yes I believe one can take the Whoops Fake Poll banner down now.

Mason-Dixon is still not listing it on their website.

This has gotten weirder.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll!)
Post by: Smash255 on September 29, 2006, 07:09:03 PM
Yes I believe one can take the Whoops Fake Poll banner down now.

Mason-Dixon is still not listing it on their website.

This has gotten weirder.

Could just be that they have released it to the press, but slow to update their sire.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2006, 07:15:25 PM
The Roanoke Times says the poll was conducted partially for MSNBC, so it looks genuine.

Link (http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/84907v)

But, yeah, rumour polls are annoying and should be indicated as being unsubstantiated in the topic title.  Please.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: ATFFL on September 29, 2006, 07:42:22 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Eraserhead on September 29, 2006, 07:54:44 PM
So was this poll even done by Mason Dixon?


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Smash255 on September 29, 2006, 07:57:24 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 

typically most people will answer that question  similar to the voter id question in what they consider themselves.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Conan on September 29, 2006, 09:20:28 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 
Some states have a different form to register to a party. At least i know NJ does.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: © tweed on September 29, 2006, 09:22:39 PM
Party registration does not exist in Virginia.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Alcon on September 29, 2006, 10:06:41 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 

Yeah, that's a screw-up on Mason-Dixon's part...but I doubt it affected the results in any form.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: ATFFL on September 29, 2006, 10:12:27 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 

Yeah, that's a screw-up on Mason-Dixon's part...but I doubt it affected the results in any form.

Could be a sign that the poll was not written by MD themselves, but that they only conducted the poll.  Also, the sample selection is not typical MD.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Sam Spade on September 29, 2006, 10:32:15 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 

Yeah, that's a screw-up on Mason-Dixon's part...but I doubt it affected the results in any form.

Could be a sign that the poll was not written by MD themselves, but that they only conducted the poll.  Also, the sample selection is not typical MD.

Also the 5-day span of conducting the poll is totally not M-D.  Very strange indeed.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: ATFFL on September 29, 2006, 10:40:34 PM

Explain this:
Full poll details. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15047082/)

From that:What is your current official party voter registration? Are you registered to vote as a:

DEMOCRAT 31%

REPUBLICAN 34%

INDEPENDENT 35%

Problem? Look at this pdf. (http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/documents/VirginiaVoterRegistrationApplication.pdf)

Anyone see where to register by party? 

Yeah, that's a screw-up on Mason-Dixon's part...but I doubt it affected the results in any form.

Could be a sign that the poll was not written by MD themselves, but that they only conducted the poll.  Also, the sample selection is not typical MD.

Also the 5-day span of conducting the poll is totally not M-D.  Very strange indeed.

One might go so far as to think someone paid MD to conduct a poorly constructed poll to get the respect that goes with the name MD.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 30, 2006, 02:31:22 AM
I wouldn't put much into this poll this poll is disputed by every single poll out there, unless there is a poll that squares with this poll I wouldn't go strictly by it.


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Nym90 on October 09, 2006, 08:38:26 PM
Why is this stickied?


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Alcon on October 10, 2006, 01:46:10 AM

As an example of why jumping the gun on polls is a bad idea.

But since it turned out to be a real poll...I'm not so sure it should be. :P


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 10, 2006, 01:48:43 AM

As an example of why jumping the gun on polls is a bad idea.

But since it turned out to be a real poll...I'm not so sure it should be. :P

It should be deleted if you ask me because of the second reason you stated and bc there´s already another thread in there concerning this poll ;)


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Frodo on November 08, 2006, 06:49:54 PM
Tredrick -when are you going to unsticky this thread?  Seriously, this is getting old. 


Title: Re: VA: Mason-Dixon TIE(Whoops! Fake poll! Umm, maybe not.)
Post by: Nym90 on November 12, 2006, 02:12:10 PM
Tredrick -when are you going to unsticky this thread?  Seriously, this is getting old. 

It's quite interesting that this poll ended up being exactly right on the mark. :)