Talk Elections

New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-09-30 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=34200609301)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003284660_senate02.html)

A really close race ...advantage Kean has disappeared somehow...

I wouldn't be so sure about it, because Mason Dixon is a little bit off on the VA senate race, some of the polls aren't going to be necessarily accurate.

I think this poll is about accurate, considering the partisan makeup of the state. Unless Kean really gets on the ball, he is not going to get the Undecided dump he needs to win in the heavily Democratic state.

I would like to see a couple of polls move into the Menendez camp......

It's alive!!!! It's alive!!!! (Menendez's canidacy that is). DWTL can't be too happy about this.


Time to move this race from "lean GOP" back to full "tossup" status.

I agree.

The last two reputable polls on this race (i.e. non-Uni polls) show it at Kean 41% Menendez 40% and now Menendez 44% Kean 41%.  If either of those are the case on election day, we know that undecideds will break hard for Menendez (they always do in NJ, look at the Gov. race last yr: nobody predicted Corzine would win by 10.5%) and give him the election. I don't really see much of a choice but to move this back into "Tossup D".

Menendez is such a prick too.  But, hell, who cares.  Vote for the (D).

I'm now of the opinion that this is the only Senate seat that the Democrats seriously risk losing. And if they do, it won't be because of Jnr's strengths, rather Menendez' weaknesses

Opinions can change though ;)

Dave

Well of course - Jr. dosen't have any strengths besides his last name!

Nah, especially considering the poll from Mason-Dixon in VA which was immediatley contradicted by Rasmussen.  I think the undecideds are Menendez voters that stopped supporting him because of his corruption and will stay home.  Depending on the turnout Kean wins somewhere between 2-7 points.

I love people that are moving this race to Democrat based on one poll taken before the tape came out

Interesting. Im about to move this back to dem if another poll has menendez up.

I love your new signature, I'm trying to get Harold Ford Jr. but I can't find a direct link to one of his bumper stickers

MD is the most credible polling firm out there.

Right.

It's ONE poll, though I do think it's accurate.

It's still one poll and was taken before the tape came out

Also taken before the Foley and Woodward stories broke.

MSNBC poll page (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15047070/)

Says it was registered voters, not likely.  Also, they really oversmpled the 65+ crowd and undersampled self described conservatives compared to the 2004 election results.

They also interviewed too many whites according to our population. They over sampled conservatives. There are far more liberals then conservatives in NJ.

Fewer self-identified conservatives probably exist than did in 2004 in NJ.

A necessity in polling New Jersey.
That's not what I'd call undersampling. :)

The article says, quote:

"A total of 625 registered New Jersey voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election."

So, what to do now ? Should i change it to RV or let the LV stay ?

All of the polls say that.  That's not much of an LV screen. 

Thanks. Menendez is just to much of a slime ball for me to support.

Do you agree a Menendez term would be so plagued with mention of his corruption that it would hurt the Democrats in the long run?

Elections over all these corruption issues go away. Menendez does not and will not have my endorsement in the 2012 primary though.

Ahh, your getting way ahead of yourself