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Title: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 05, 2006, 02:28:47 PM ()
Title: Re: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: Sam Spade on October 05, 2006, 03:23:10 PM Right now, Democrats have been really underperforming in NY House CD polling, etc.
Barring new polls saying something different, the only two House races that look competitive right now are NY-24 (obviously) and NY-26. In fact, I would say that NY-26 has a better chance of flipping than NY-24 does as of now. NY-24 is a pure toss-up at this point. Title: Re: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: Conan on October 05, 2006, 04:34:25 PM I know Boehlerts seat is going dem, and i think there could be some big surprises. Prob 2 switch at least.
Title: Re: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: Smash255 on October 06, 2006, 01:36:58 AM NY-24 and, unless things change rapidly in the Foley scandal, NY-26 are lost to the Republicans. NY-20 and NY-25 also stand a good chance of flipping, and I wouldn't rule out NY-29. The rest, I do rule out, though I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if a massive wave tossed the GOP out of NY-03 and NY-13. NY 26 is very likley Dem, and I think they take NY-24 as well. From that point on, with the exception of NY-23 the Dems could possibly take everything else. Now they would need a rather large wave for that to happen, and I think its rather unlikley, but not entirley out of the question. I would rate NY-03's chances a bit higher than Ny-13 though, though both are in the likley GOP camp. NY-13 I would say ranks 8th among seats to flip, while NY-03 I would say is 5th or 6th on the list. chances of flipping will flip 1.NY-26 85% probably flips, but GOP can hold 2. NY-24 60% GOP has an edge, but Dems have a good shot 3. NY-20 45% 4. NY-29 43% GOP likley holds it, but not safe 5. NY-25 35% 5. NY-3 35% More than likley GOP holds, barring direct scandal Dem needs huge wave 7. NY-19 25% 8. NY-13 20% something real major needs to go down 9. NY-23 10% Title: Re: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: socaldem on October 06, 2006, 11:07:45 AM NY-24 and, unless things change rapidly in the Foley scandal, NY-26 are lost to the Republicans. NY-20 and NY-25 also stand a good chance of flipping, and I wouldn't rule out NY-29. The rest, I do rule out, though I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if a massive wave tossed the GOP out of NY-03 and NY-13. NY 26 is very likley Dem, and I think they take NY-24 as well. From that point on, with the exception of NY-23 the Dems could possibly take everything else. Now they would need a rather large wave for that to happen, and I think its rather unlikley, but not entirley out of the question. I would rate NY-03's chances a bit higher than Ny-13 though, though both are in the likley GOP camp. NY-13 I would say ranks 8th among seats to flip, while NY-03 I would say is 5th or 6th on the list. chances of flipping will flip 1.NY-26 85% probably flips, but GOP can hold 2. NY-24 60% GOP has an edge, but Dems have a good shot 3. NY-20 45% 4. NY-29 43% GOP likley holds it, but not safe 5. NY-25 35% 5. NY-3 35% More than likley GOP holds, barring direct scandal Dem needs huge wave 7. NY-19 25% 8. NY-13 20% something real major needs to go down 9. NY-23 10% I think NY-13 definitely belongs in the bottom tier of races and I think the Dem chances in NY-19 are a little better than you indicate. Title: Re: Which GOP NY House districts go Democrat? Post by: Eraserhead on October 06, 2006, 03:25:05 PM If there is a God NY-19 and 20 will go Democratic. Granted I'm not much of a believer.
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