Talk Elections

How well do people think Clinton will do in Arkansas if she is the nominee?  Its unlikely she will win it barring any major shift towards her, but will she do better than Kerry in 2004 (44.55%) and Gore in 2004 (45.86%)?  Also, do you think her campaign will at all concentrate on Arkansas as part of a Southern strategy alongside possibly Virginia and Florida? 

Yeah - I think given her history there would be a concerted effort to at least do better than the last two.

Supposedly people love her there.

I can't imagine that'd she'd survive a good GOP smear campaign down there.

Could she have won a senate seat there? Bear in mind both senators from Arkansas are Democrats.

It's the only southern state where she has a decent chance of winning - Bill is still MASSIVELY popular and Hillary can get carried with that.

As for the other Democrats like Pryor they basically republican-light.

But Hillary is a different case.

Uh, Hillary would get killed in Arkansas.  If she poured resources into the state she might get 44%.  I hope she is that stupid.  She is not however - smartest woman in the world I hear.

A lot of people forget that Bill lost his first re-election campaign for governor.

I can't see her getting above 46-47%.  That said, AR would probably be her best southern state.

I wouldnt call them Republican-lite. They are very much dems and their records say so.

You are forgetting that John Kerry got 45% here.

It depends on who she's up against.

Unless she's against Huckabee, she'll probably win.

She's pretty popular there, and has the most popular Arkansan as a husband, who'll help a lot too.

In 1992 and 1996 Clinton carried the Southern States of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia.  In 1992 he had Georgia and in 1996 he had Florida.  Arkansas was the only one of those states to grant him a majority (rather than a plurality) in BOTH elections.  I think given those results, combined with Democratic dominance of congressional and local races gives Hillary more than a good chance of winning Arkansas.  Wether or not she can carry any other Southern States remains to be seen.  I think her best chances are in Florida, Louisiana, West Virginia, Missouri, and Virginia in that order.

My order would be:

Florida
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
West Virginia
Virginia (still has a chance down to here).

Bill's perception was that of a centrist when he ran.  Hillary is pereived as a lefty.   That's the difference.  Hillary doesn't carry Arkansas no way no how.  You guys are living in lala land.

Hillary could, if she manages to not get herself defined as an ultraliberal.

Two things could conceivably get her a surprising majority there: 1) Serious anti-republican economic backlash, 2) Husband campaigning effectively on her behalf.  The first is not unlikely - the state is abysmally poor and getting worse off, relatively speaking, in the right-wing economy.

I would add a conservative running as an independent to that list.  I think that it is conceivable given a Guliani or even McCain win in the GOP primary that a more conservative candidate would run as an independent.

Maybe because he then won in 1982, 1984, 1986, 1990, and for President in 1992 and 1996.

This map shows why Arkansas is a critical state (even if there is no Arkansan running). God Forbid that the Dems nominate her!
(do you really want to hear the Republicans whine for eight years about Bill and Hillary??) but here is how she *could* win (270-268):


()

I don't know if she would win, unless the Republicans nominate someone who is very conservative.

Of all the southern states Arkansas is one of the most winnable. If the Dems abandon the South altogether, then Arkansas may go 'red' along with the rest of the South. Sure abandoning *most* of the South makes sense, but a few states will be in play in 08 morenlikely.
If the Dems really want to be wise they will pick someone who was against the Iraq war from the start. But if they chose someone who voted for the war, Edwards is obviously the best choice (although he could pick a nonwhite and/or a female as his VP, of course).

What is the significance of the pink states?  I can't see any qualities that they all share exclusively.  Are you simply predicting close races in those states only should Hillary win the Dem nomination?

I think they will be close, assuming it is a close race, and except for perhaps Arkansas, they will be close no matter who the Dem nominee is,
Arkansas may go Republican unless a southerner or Hillary is at the top of the ticket

If she does the things necessary to win in Arkansas, will it hurt her elsewhere?  She hasn't lived in the state in 15 years.  She left the state to move to New York City of all places in order to run for Senator.  And if she tries to reinforce her southern credentials, doesn't it hurt her elsewhere?

 A Hillary win in Arkansas is not out of the question, especially if the Repiblican candidate is not a southerner.

 If John Kerry can get 45% in the state only a year and a half into the Iraq war, only three years after 9/11 and versus an affable southerner, I think the wife of Bill Clinton will be competetive in Arkansas in 2008 as the country is still bogged down in Iraq.

The last time I checked, Hillary did not move to NYC :)  NY, yes, but not the City, not even that close - Chappaqua is a fairly distant suburb. Of course, it's close enough for her husband to commute to his office in Harlem. 

She doesn't have the southern appeal that her husband did. I could see her maybe breaking 45% here.

Considering the state is right across the river from me, I don't think it's out of the question for her to win; however, a GOP southerner would take it against her. If we nominate Giuliani, it's open season.

northwest AR is GOP
the counties that border the MS river and SE AR are DEM
southwest AR sould go eitherway
Little Rock is about 55/45 Democrat

Interestingly enough, Bush won all four of AR's CD in 2004.

Only narrowly though.  Gore won AR-1 and AR-4 in 2000. 

She would win Arkansas.  As in other parts of the country, she will draw in women and minorities who usually don't vote.  Just a few percentage points of that would give her a win.

I think overall, people are forgetting the power of drawing from this crowd that doesn't vote.  Most women, when they vote, vote Dem.  Almost all minorities vote Dem when they vote.  Clinton is popular with all of these groups and has the ability to energize them.

All of you conservative white guys are becoming outnumbered

Last time I checked there were more women voting then men. Plus a women who is conservative is not going to vote for Clinton because she is a women too. It don't work that way.

Excerpts of an article about Hillary Clinton and Arkansas:

"Clinton returns today to the state where she was first lady for 12 years to headline a state Democratic Party fundraiser, this time as her party's front-runner for the White House and with a rock star-like celebrity status.

One benchmark of that status: A local sign store says Clinton paraphernalia is outselling that of former Gov. Mike Huckabee 20-to-1 even though Huckabee is a Republican presidential candidate who recently retired as governor after serving for 10 years.

Arkansans also buy 10 Clinton items for every one with fellow Democrat Barack Obama's name."

...

"Arkansas helped raise Hillary Clinton," said 2nd District Rep. Vic Snyder of Little Rock, one of three Democratic congressmen from the state who support her. 4th District Rep. Mike Ross of Gillett and 1st District Rep. Marion Berry of Prescott back her, too, as well as Sen. Mark Pryor and several other Arkansas officials who endorsed her Friday.

"She gave 12 years of her life as first lady of our state," Ross said. "I'm surprised that people would even ask who we're supporting."

...

"Several Arkansans said Clinton's mettle has been tested and she's shown herself to be strong and capable.

"They went through all of that personal stuff and she really held herself together," said Orville Edwards, a 74-year-old hardware store manager in Little Rock. "Can you imagine anyone else handling themselves in the same way?"

But Jan Crow, a 66-year-old office manager at the American Legion in downtown Little Rock, said she voted for Bill Clinton as governor once, but she won't ever vote for his wife."

http://www.nwaonline.net/articles/2007/06/22/news/062307arclinton.txt

All I want is a poll now ;) I would not be surprised if a poll showed her tied with Giuliani down there. The SUSA Missouri poll had Giuliani ahead of Clinton by 1%, combined with the Hillary-factor in AR, a tie should be possible. I´d say she would have a shot in AR next year.

Just found a poll from 2006 showing Hillary Clinton would beat Mike Huckabee 49%-36% in Arkansas, with 15% undecided.

That´s a strong showing, considering that Huckabee was still governor then ...

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/8/25/221722.shtml

Gosh that is a strong showing. 

 I feel more strongly that Hillary will be competitive in Arkansas. 48% at least, regardless of opponent. Probably over 50% if the Republican nominee is Guliani or Romney. Against McCain or Fred Thompson it would be a toss-up.

She will be competitive in Arkansas, and has a chance in some of the more cosmopolitan southern states, such as Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and Missouri. Lingering ill will over Katrina could hurt the GOP in Louisiana, too. Her chances of actually winning any of those states has a lot to do with who the Republican nominee is. Her beating Giuliani or Romney in some of those states certainly isn't out of the question. She might have a tougher time against Thompson, though (although a Thompson nomination might virtually guarantee her wins in some states that she would have to fight harder for against a more moderate opponent).

Let's keep in mind that that poll is from NewsMax, who think Hillary has already been nominated, elected, and is now planning to form a One World Government in alliance with the Pope and the Comintern.

I do however think it's telling that those Democratic congressmen endorsed Hillary.

Nope. This poll was just released in "Newsmax", not conducted by them ... ;)

Though this poll is one year old and pits her against then incumbent AR governor Mike Huckabee I think she may have a chance against Giuliani but not against the other 3 Republicans.

Anyway: I´d still wait for a Mason-Dixon or Rasmussen poll out of Arkansas before I go too much into it.