Talk Elections

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-11-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=51200611020)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html)

This is getting too much...

This is the exact result I picture in those last minute polls in the close races. Webb will win though.

I think a Webb momentum is growing - I do not mean he'll win by a huge margin but he will win in the region of what Tim Kaine did in 2005.  My prediction:

VIRGINIA SENATE
Webb (D) 50%
Allen (R) 47%
Parker (I) 2%

I think Allen will win (by at less 52%)
Except rasmussen, only bad polls (cnn & zogby) give webb victory and rasmussen gives now a tie after a lead for webb. Hypotetical momentum is dead.


PS: errare humanum est

Allen has started running a couple decent ads, I think he realized only Webb can get away with attack ads for some reason. But Allen definitely will need a good GOP ground game, and a less than disastrous environment, to win.

I think Parker dropped out of the race, and if she didn't she won't be getting nearly that much support.  Russ Potts actually ran a visible campaign for governor in 2005 and only ended up with 2%.

From what I can tell especially from the Gov race in VA last year, it seems VA is one of the few places where the Dem GOTV machine is as strong as the GOP.

As I pointed out here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48293.0), the idea of a vastly superior GOP GOTV machine is a misconception.

Virginia is actually a state where in 2004 Bush outperformed the polls. However the Governor's race is probably a better example to compare this year against.

Actually, the 2005 Governor's race is pretty much the odd man out.  Historically, the GOP underpolls in Virginia to the tune of about 3%-4%, at least since the early 1990s.

Maybe the 2005 scenario will repeat itself this year, but I wouldn't go around saying that this is the historically correct interpretation.  And I don't see what, if any, this has to do with the GOP GOTV operation.

What did the polls say in 2001?

The average of the polls said Warner was up by roughly 10%.  Mason-Dixon was the best for Easley, saying Warner up 6%.

He ended up winning by 5%.

This race is giving me heart burn. Is this with leaners?

I'm sure he has some leaners in there. 

and the rasmussen poll that had webb up by five was conducted on a Sunday.  Dumb time to poll.

Hasn't Warner been campaigning for Allen??

Senator John Warner I believe so, however the discussion was about former  Democratic Govenor Mark Warner who was and still is IMMENSLEY popular and is campaigning for Webb.   

Opps, I meant 'hasn't (Mark) Warner been campaigning for Webb?'  I knew he was planning to, and was wondering what the local press has been.  I'm sure Warner would be an enormous help to Webb, perhaps contributing to the small swing in the polls.