Talk Elections

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=bb5ff700-8450-44e0-bb6b-2a4e4123808e

This poll may have altered my prediction, but I've called it for Lucas and I'm sticking with it

Dave

there is just something about Lucas that I like.... I don't know what it is... maybe its the last name of Lucas...

I had always considered KY-03 more winnable than this. Looks like I was right.

If this is supposed to be the year of the conservative Democrat like Frodo or whoever is claiming, Lucas is going to have to do a little better than that.

Yeah, we should have run a dyed-in-the-wool liberal in KY-04; he'd have been assured victory.

The real irony is that should Lucas, a populist-leaning conservative, lose to Davis, then KY-04 will have rejected the candidate who, likely, best fits the District

Of course, I'm hoping they make the right call :) and that's the Democrat in this race

Dave

I never claimed that. Lucas has a lifetime ACU score of 72, higher than the most conservative current Democrat in the House, Gene Taylor 69. If he can't win his old seat in a year like this, that shows that being a conservative Democrat is over-rated in terms of winning.

http://www.gazette.net/stories/110606/princou184921_31947.shtml




What's ironic about that?

Strangely Lucas has had problems gaining traction here.  He was ahead of Davis early in the year but has since fallen behind and never been ahead at least since the summer.  Bush won 63% of the vote here in 2004 but that can't be his only problem.  We shall tonight anyway but I predict Davis to hold on in KY-4.

Lucas looked really old and uninterested during the debate a couple of weeks ago.  I moved the race down quite a ways after that observation.

And I was :)