Talk Elections

Winning NH-01 and IA-02 wasn't expected.
Casey winning by 18 points wasn't expected.

Bredesen winning every single county in TN

A lot this election.  Once the results are more final, I'll point out the ones that surprised me the most.

Casey's margin was surprising... it was closer in TN that many folks might have though (though i wasnt surprised... anoyed though ;) ).

Overall though the big shocks where in the house, where a number of big names fell to the Dems.

Something I noticed is that the Republicans were, generally, better at holding affluent suburban districts (or mixed districts with an affluent suburban presence) than other sorts of seat.

NY-19 being an exception, I presume.  But I see your point.

Like I said earlier, the wave hit in odd places.  IN, NH and PA were decimated (with Gerlach oddly standing throughout), OH and NY were left relatively unscathed. (NY-19 being the exception)  IA, WI were hit badly and so was MN-01, but Pawlenty looks likely to survive.  Shays was left standing, Johnson was taken down, Simmons is really unknown right now.

One other thing, which I mentioned on another thread, if Wilson survives, I'm going to offer WMS a drink to toast the victory.  After calling her "dead" this morning, saying she was a good GOP Rep. who lost to a totally inferior opponent, if she manages to pull it out, this will make my election.

Bingaman winning every county in NM. Richardson lost only Catron County by 2 (!!) votes.

Casey destroying Santorum:

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Nelson destroying Ricketts:

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And, of course, Klobuchar slaughtering Kennedy.

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This last was a bloodbath. Kennedy couldn't even break 40 percent... ouch.

Patrick Murphy winning, but Lois losing.

The suburbs always ruin everything.

Gerlach winning, Fitz and Hart losing.  I would never have predicted that, period.  Weldon and Sherwood were already gone.  Go figure.

Though I say it myself, a very nice win for Casey


Solid win for Nelson, but, alas, not enough out West for Scott Kleeb. Had the gubernatorial been more competitive, he may have stood a chance but 45% for a Democrat in NE-03 is very respectable. It's a crying shame the district will be represented by a dud ::)

Dave

The Star Tribune nailed the MN senate race. That's about the biggest shocker possible.

For the most part this election was very predictable, so if there is any surprise it is how close the results were to what was predicted. The only other thing that wasn't necessarily expected was how close the Senate would be, but that is really no surprise, either.

Okay, something I just noticed... the Libertarian candidate in Indiana actually carried a county, Warren, with 59.8 percent of the vote. This, while getting only 13 percent statewide! I'm guessing it's his home county? He must be very popular locally.

Good show, Osborn. I don't think anyone on Earth predicted that you would win a county.

I was surprised to see only one OH district change hands.  I thought Deborah Pryce was a goner, but she managed to pull through.  Wulsin nearly took down Schmidt, but just missed out. :(

The San Francisco Chronicle is calling McNerney's win in CA-11 over Pombo a shocker.

I'm proud my congressional district stood up to Pombo's corruption. :)

I hate to sound a liberal hack, but I wonder if voting machines/stolen election had something to do with that.  The way neighboring (PA, IN) and other midwest (IA, WI, MN) got hit hard by the wave it seems kind of funny that Ohio would remain relatively unscathed.

It might have something to do with the gerrymander; the Ohio Republicans got it "just right", unlike the PA Republicans who were too greedy (and who have just paid for their greed).

Is Gerlach bomb-proof or something?

Or Lois Murphy isn't as good of a candidate as everyone thinks she is.

Chris Shays and Deborah Pryce are my shockers.  I thought those two would be sending out resumes today.  If anyone was going to win in Connecticut, I thought it would be Rob Simmons.  He staked his career on the submarine base, saved it, and still lost.

Congratulations to the Democrats.

I think it's both. When I woke up and found out that Gerlach won, I realized that he is unbeatable. I was in shock.

Margin of victories for many many races.

Lois is over,yet, but I thought Fitz ran a much better campaign.  Hart in PA-4 was greater.

I think it has much more to do with the fact that the Ohio GOP machinery is still very strongly in place at the lower levels of (State legislature races), which have the greatest impact on House races, imho.

I started to get uneasy on monday when I read an article in the Bucks County Courier Times that interviewed people about fitz...

One theme kinda got me...

"He's been good on local issues, but I don't like how the country is going in Iraq."

George W. Bush helped Patrick Murphy. He nationalized the race (among so many others) on an issue that frankly, no one trusts him on.

The Cincinnati suburbs are ruled by a bunch of right-wing thugs. They wouldn't know an honest election if it bit them in the face.

I assume you noticed that Schmidt performed much better in the rural counties who were so against her when she faced Hackett and yet she performed much worse in her home of Hamilton County than before.  I suspect that this means she is will become more entrenched in her CD and not less, unfortunately.

Possibly. On the other hand, it might simply show that farmers and other rural constituents who were willing to vote for the maverick, "aw shucks" Hackett were less willing to vote for the somewhat sleeker and more citified Wulsin. Wulsin did close the gap further than Hackett ever did, and she was not by any means an amazing candidate. Not weak, but not strong.

I'm most surprised by the switch in NY-19, I think.

I figured if Sue Kelly lost, Kuhl, Walsh, and Reynolds all would, too. She was the 6th-most vulnerable NY GOPer in my book.

The Leach loss is a surprise. Shea-Porter's win is also up there.

Beyond that, I'm a bit surprised that Ford, Jr. got as close as he did in TN. I figured Corker would win by about 8... guess I trusted M-D polling too much there :)

Scott. Roseau. Faribault. McLeod. Martin. Brown.

Wow. Wow. Wow.

While I am still awaiting the final numbers...if Wilson wins, I have my Tequila of Happiness ready, Sam. ;D Trust me, once this is official (not certain but...the remaining areas appear to favor Wilson) I am going to be one happy camper, for the reasons you stated above.

And I am so going to make a short rant when that happens. :D Because Wilson deserved the seat so much more than Madrid did.

Wilson and Partick Lyons (R - Commissioner of Public Lands) are the only two races in NM that were at all in doubt, and Lyons already won his for certain...TAKE THAT, JIM BACA! ;D *does the happy dance*

I guess that the Dems only won 1 seat in Ohio. Central and Western Ohio must be ridiculously gerrymandered. For me the biggest disappointment of the election was that jean schmidt didn't lose her seat.

But just think: We get to be entertained by her crazy behavior for another 2 years.

MN-01.

Seriously... wtf?!?!

It seems that John Hall ran one of the best campaigns in recent memory...or Sue Kelly was just that overrated.

Other than that...NH-01, of course, Burns coming as close as he did in MT in the wee hours last night, and (pleasantly) Shays holding on CT.

Jim Baca lost for Land Commissioner?? In a Democratic year? WTF WMS?

Yes, he did.  New Mexico can be an odd state at times.  :P 

52.5% to 47.5% at last count.

Baca is still remembered for his term as Mayor of Albuquerque. Not remembered fondly at all. ;D

The entire Albuquerque Metropolitian Area basically sank Baca...and I am *dying* to eventually see the West Side precincts. :D

Oh I remember Jim Baca. I lived in ABQ while he was mayor. I remember his fetish for baseball and how he wanted a downtown stadium to replace the Albuquerque Sports Stadium. I was a HUGE Dukes fan at the time but I didn't like the idea of night games in the neighborhood he had in mind!

Baca was all about downtown and had a nasty streak towards the West Side. >:( The West Side has been paying him and his ideological heirs back this entire decade. ;) And I'm certain we just did so again. :D

Heh, I remember the Baseball Election in ABQ - a special election just to approve funding for a "refurbished not new" stadium...with, like, maybe one stone left from the original structure. ;D

I thought this before and you eluded to it.  PA 6 is just too divided and there aren't many undecideds.  You either have the Main Line limo-liberals and the countryside out in Berks County.  I think there, unlike PA 8, it's pretty clear cut and dry who will vote for who.

We went with an inspiring "everyman candidate" (as the Wall Street Journal called him) over the boring, stuffed suit career politician. :)

Seriously though, this race had been on the radar though, hardly a surprise. But one sight and sound to behold was the crowd at the DFL victory party when the race was called for Walz. I actually lost my voice last night from screaming so much. Walz's victory speech was great too.

All of Gutknecht's fighting to stay on the ballot after he refused to follow the proper procedures didn't help him any, did it?

Ciro's margin in TX-23.

Don't count your chickens before all of San Antonio...err, hatches.

I'm sure the margin could tighten, but it's over.

It could hardly have happened to a more deserving congressperson.

I think I still have the screencap from 2002 that shows CNN calling the election for Bonilla despite the fact that he was losing in the vote totals.

Presumably the heavily Democratic areas had already reported and few if any of the heavily Republican ones had. It might seem illogical at a glance but it happens, and I've seen Dems declared winners who are behind in the votes that have been reported so far as well (if say the heavily urban areas haven't reported yet).

I've never ever ever seen this happen with a Democrat ever. However, in the 1988 presidential election, Illinois was called for Dukakis, only to be taken back later when DuPage County "found" a whole bunch of votes for Pa Bush.

It happens when there are exit polls. Bush was leading in California when it was called for Gore.

Well Bush won Illinois by 95,000 votes approximately in 1988. Dupage turnout was only up 14,000 votes from 1984, so I think it's a bit of a stretch to say that turnout was actually at least 81,000 votes lower than it was in 1984 in actuality with the 95,000 extra manufactured votes....

Bush won Dupage by 123,000, which is down from Reagan's 155,000 vote margin in 1988. A Republican margin of only 28,000 in Dupage would've been lower than any Republican had won in that county since 1944 (and also lower than the Republican margin has ever been since 1988, despite Dupage's overall sharp turn to the left in the meantime), so again, seems a bit of a stretch.

I think some of the other suburban counties contributed to that though.

Maryland was called for O'Malley while Ehrlich was leading in the polls.

That's because the GOP-leaning areas of the state tend to report first.  I don't know why that is, except that they're less populated and tend to have their vote counts done faster.

Returns from Montgomery County, Prince Georges County, and Baltimore City and County trickled in more slowly, and as they did O'Malley and Cardin moved well ahead.