Talk Elections

Obama surge!

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

He's at 19, Hillary is 53...what kind of surge is that?

A pretty decent one (considering where he was before).

Obama has now broken the 20% mark for (I think) the first time ever.  On the GOP side, there had been a Giuliani bounce (hurting both McCain and Romney) right after he announced his exploratory committee, but now it looks like McCain, Romney, and Giuliani are all back to about where they were before that happened (with McCain again, barely, above 50%).  Gingrich continues his slow rise (he's now close to his all time high), and Rice continues her slow fall (I think she may now be at an all time low).

He seems to be hurting Gore, and to a lesser extent Edwards more than Hillary.

He scooped up Warner's spot as the infamous "Anti-Hillary".

Whoa...I read this wrong at first...this seems to be the one glaring thing the Senator from Illinois needs to fix if he were to run...

Something tells me I wouldn't like his ideology very much, but he seems like a decent man and good candidate otherwise.

Brownback is way too low, he should be at about 6 or 7 right now

Here are the numbers on winning in the general election right now:

McCain - 27.0
Clinton - 26.0
Obama - 13.0
Giuliani - 11.0
Romney - 9.4
Gore - 6.0
Edwards - 5.0
all others are under 1.0

Yeah, but that's because not all of the potential candidates are listed on winning the general election.  I assume that Huckabee would be over 1.0 if he was listed, given that his odds of winning the GOP nomination are now given as 9.1%.  He would have to be a pretty pathetic general election candidate to have a 9% chance at the nomination, but only a 1% chance of going all the way.

New numbers. Warner is doing pretty well for having said he's not running.
McCain is close to an all time high.

Democrats

Clinton 53.4
Obama 20.5
Edwards 10.4
Gore 7.0
Warner 3.0
Vilsack 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.7
Clark 1.0
Biden 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans

McCain 51.2
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 7.1
Gingrich 4.5
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.3
Hagel 1.0
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

Edwards also seems to be close to an all time high.  He's been slowly gaining of late.  Huckabee is slowly fading after his peak of a few weeks ago.

If they would get rid of the candidates of Gore, Warner, Gingrich, Rice, Cheney, and Jeb Bush...then the ratings would be better.

Warner, Vilsack, Huckabee down
Edwards and Dodd, Hagel, Allen, Gilmore up

Democrats

Clinton 53.0
Obama 20.7
Edwards 11.4
Gore 7.4
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.6
Dodd 1.3
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 1.0
Clark 0.9
Biden 0.6


Republicans

McCain 51.1
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 4.3
Hagel 1.6
Brownback 1.5
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Pataki 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Gilmore 0.3

All over 0.5% listed

Edwards surge

Democrats
Clinton 50.8
Obama 21.5
Edwards 15.0
Gore 7.4
Richardson 2.5
Kerry 1.7
Vilsack 1.3
Biden 1.0
Warner 1.0
Clark 0.9
Dodd 0.9

Republicans
McCain 51.0
Giuliani 15.1
Romney 15.0
Huckabee 7.0
Gingrich 3.6
Hagel 1.7
Brownback 1.6
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Allen 0.6
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

Wow, there's been a fair amount of movement.
Hillary is the lowest in a while, McCain has better nomination odds than her now.
Obama is basically a record high.
Guiliani and Romney gained at the expense of Huckabee and Gingrich
A lot of 0.2 point gaps for the Democrats.

Democrats
Clinton 50.0
Obama 22.0
Edwards 14.9
Gore 7.0
Richardson 2.1
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.5
Romney 15.7
Guiliani 15.0
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 2.9
Hagel 1.6
Brownback 1.6
Rice 1.4
Cheney 0.8
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5

McCain's hold on the GOP nomination is only going to increase.  He's the establishment candidate.

Obama is now a lifetime high of 23.0

Hillary's now below 50.0 for the first time since the midterms.

He'll be 72 years old in 2008. The last time the president-elect was older than the president in an open race was 1908, an Bill Taft was only older than Roosevelt by a year! It's not going to happen.

Now that we're in 2007.
Brownback and Powell surge. Huckabee drops.

Democrats
Clinton 49.9
Obama 22.0
Edwards 13.8
Gore 6.6
Richardson 2.0
Kerry 1.7
Vilsack 1.4
Biden 1.2
Warner 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.6
Romney 16.5
Giuliani 16.2
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.8
Powell 0.8
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5

I like the fact McCain is older. We need an older President in these times, in my opinion.

Why don't you support Emma Tillman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Tillman), then?  She's the oldest person in America.

No, I think we need a president with a clear head.  McCain's not that guy anymore.

No, he should vote for Emiliano Mercado del Toro (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emiliano_Mercado_del_Toro), because he's the oldest.

Front runners Clinton and McCain both drop
Powell and Brownback also drop. Pataki and Thompson rise.


Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5

Good. Clinton continues to fall.

Clinton, Obama, Clark, Giuliani, Powell, Thompson drop
Biden, McCain, Rice, Hagel rise

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 19.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 6.8
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.6
Richardson 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 49.6
Romney 16.2
Giuliani 14.8
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5

Gore, Richardson up
McCain, Pataki down

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 20.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 8.3
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.0
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.0
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5

Lots of movement on the Democratic side

Gainers: Clinton, Gore, Biden, Dodd
Droppers: Obama, Edwards, Richardson

Democrats
Clinton 46.8
Obama 19.2
Edwards 16.2
Gore 8.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.5
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.1
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 3.6
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Brownback 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5

Obama is now at 19.5, and Edwards has moved up to 19.0.  At this rate, Edwards will soon surpass Obama.

Of course, part of what's holding Obama back is that there's still doubt in some quarters about whether he's actually going to run.  If Obama announced today that he was running, he would probably see an immediate uptick to at least 25.0 or so.

There are some rumors that he'll announce on Martin Luther King Day (Monday), but those are just rumors.

Richardson said he'd make a decision soon, though.

MLK day? LOL...LOLOL....LOLOLOL :D

Up: Clinton, Obama,Edwards, Huckabee
Down: Rice

Democrats
Clinton 48.7
Obama 20.0
Edwards 18.9
Gore 8.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.2
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 47.9
Romney 17.2
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.9
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.7
Brownback 2.7
Rice 1.6
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

He'd probably announce on Ramadan or 9/11.

Up: Biden, Clark, Rice
Down: Obama, Edwards, Gore,  Richardson, Dodd, McCain, Huckabee, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 19.2
Edwards 17.1
Gore 6.3
Biden 3.0
Richardson 1.6
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Clark 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.9
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Brownback 2.7
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

Now that Obama has formed a committee, here are the Democratic changes:

Up: Obama, Dodd
Down: Edwards, Biden, Clark

A lot of changes around 5th place for the Republicans:
Up: Gingrich, Hagel
Down: Rice, Brownback

Democrats
Clinton 47.9
Obama 20.9
Edwards 16.5
Gore 6.2
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.7
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 44.7
Romney 17.3
Giuliani 15.5
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 4.1
Brownback 3.2
Hagel 3.1
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Powell 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4

I expected more of a bounce for Obama now that he's jumped in the race....but he's barely ahead of where he was a month ago, back when quite a few pundits seemed unsure of whether he'd actually get in.  I guess more people have been convinced that he'd run all along.....or else those that were unsure don't think much of his chances at the nomination anyway.

I didn't capture all of the Obama bounce. He actually gained another point since I posted that, and is now at 21.9.

Gore should have dropped off the charts after his most recent announcement that he isn't running. I like the guy, but people have to let go. Biden and Richardson should be higher then him at least.

Up: Obama, Gore, Clark
Down: Edwards

There's now a lot more Republican longshots than Democratic longshots.

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 23.0
Edwards 15.7
Gore 7.9
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 16.2
Huckabee 4.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4

Clinton and McCain are at or near their lowest points since the election two months ago.  Obama is (I think) at an all time high (but still rated as only half as likely to win the nomination as Clinton).  Romney is near his all time high, but still well behind McCain.  Edwards is kind of close to his all time high, but has backslid a bit since Obama's announcement.

Thompson went up .2%! w00t! :P

Obama has now reached a new all time high of 23.8.  His price is finally more than half that of Clinton's.

Sweet (not that it really means anything).

Clinton is up a bit due to her announcement.
Obama and Edwards drop, while Gore and Gravel surge.
On the Republican side, Paul surges.

Democrats
Clinton 49.2
Obama 19.5
Edwards 13.0
Gore 10.0
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.3
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.1
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.9
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.7
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

I'm really surprised that Hillary seems to have gotten a bigger bounce (and the associated drop for her rivals) out of her announcement than Obama did.  Obama is now exactly where he was about a month ago on Tradesports.  But wasn't the CW at that point that there was still some doubt as to whether Obama would run, whereas Clinton was pretty much a sure thing?  So then why hasn't Obama's decision to run given him a bigger boost?

Hillary still has tons of name recognition over Obama.

But that's been the case forever.  I'm simply asking why it is that Obama hasn't gained more ground since the timeframe when people were still uncertain about whether he'd actually run.  When the CW goes from, say, 75% probability that Obama will run to 100% probability that Obama will run, then there should be a corresponding boost in the probability that Obama will win the nomination (unless people are simultaneously becoming more skeptical of Obama's chances of winning, should he run).

Anyway, I had thought that, back in early-mid December, there was still some uncertainty as to whether Obama would run, whereas nearly everyone was convinced that Clinton would run.  But I guess I may have been wrong on that score.

Hillary's bump has vanished. Others changes, particularly an Edwards surge.

Democrats
Clinton 46.1
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.0
Biden 2.3
Richardson 2.3
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.3
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.7
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

There's two Thompson's on there, who's who?

Why does Gravel get 1.0? I don't think he's being officially recognized by the party...

How is Gore still getting 9.0?

What do you mean by "officially recognized by the party"?

Anyone who buys Richardson or Huckabee is gonna get to sell them for at least 10 when next winter comes.

Was LaRouche every included in any primary debates?

No, but Gravel isn't insane like LaRouche is.  Even Morry Taylor made it into the '96 GOP debates, so I would imagine that Gravel can get into the '08 debates if he wants to.  You do have a point though in that the media almost never mentions Gravel when it lists '08 candidates.  But that's the media's fault, not the Democratic Party's.

Oh, and Gravel has been included in numerous '08 polls, which is something that was never done for LaRouche, AFAIK.

Now that some of the recent announcements have been priced in:

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.4
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

Paul having the same chances as Richardson? LOL

Here it is with it forced to be in the range between bid and ask, to reduce that problem. Paratheses show last if different.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 20.0
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 2.5 (2.8)
Kerry 1.4 (1.5)
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 0.9 (1.0)
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 7.1 (6.8)
Hagel 4.1 (3.9)
Gingrich 4.0 (3.5)
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.8
Paul 2.0 (2.9)
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.7 (0.8)
Bush 0.7 (0.6)
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Gilmore 0.5 (0.7)

Gainers: Hagel, Gingrich
Losers: Edwards, Clinton, Huckabee, Paul, Allen, Powell, Thompson

Democrats
Clinton 46.3
Obama 20.3
Edwards 13.8
Gore 8.0
Richardson 3.0
Biden 2.8
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.2
Romney 16.8
Giuliani 16.4
Huckabee 5.7
Hagel 4.5
Gingrich 4.2
Brownback 3.1
Rice 2.8
Cheney 1.0
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Paul 0.6
Powell 0.6
Hunter 0.4

With Kerry out:

GAIN: Clinton, Edwards
LOSS: Obama, KERRY

Democrats
Clinton 47.4
Obama 18.6
Edwards 15.1
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.7
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.6

Republicans

McCain 42.2
Romney 16.7
Giuliani 16.3
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 5.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.0
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Not much movement.
Do Rice, Powell, Jeb Bush, or Cheney really have a chance?

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 18.8
Edwards 15.8
Gore 7.6
Richardson 2.6
Biden 2.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.6

Republicans

McCain 42.2
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 16.1
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 5.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.7
Rice 2.3
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.5

They possibly might have had one if they were running (besides Jeb Bush, for obvious reasons...), but I believe that all of them have stated that they have no intentions to do so.

I've listed the last trade of every candidate with a bid.

Gore surge
McCain, Gilmore, Gravel lose

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 18.9
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.8
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.1
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 0.7
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.7
Kerry 0.3
Gravel 0.2
Bayh 0.2
Corzine 0.2
Kucinch 0.1

Republicans

McCain 40.1
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 5.8
Gingrich 5.3
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 2.1
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.8
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Allen 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Thompson 0.3
Owens 0.1
Santorum 0.1
Sanford 0.1


No bid Democrats: Feingold, Schweitzer, Dean, Daschle, Rendell, Bredesen, Lieberman, Powell, Ford, Leahy, Blagojevich, Easley
No bid Republicans: Paul, Gilmore, Warner, Frist, Barbour, Graham, Pawlenty, Dole, Schwarz, Ridge, Franks

Up: Gore, Guilani
Down: Obama, Richardson, Vilsack

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 17.7
Edwards 15.5
Gore 11.1
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.0
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans

McCain 40.1
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 17.0
Huckabee 5.8
Gingrich 5.1
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.3
Rice 2.1
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6

What is it with Gore thing?

Gingrich passes, and Hagel ties, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 18.6
Edwards 15.1
Gore 11.3
Richardson 2.0
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 40.1
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 4.6
Huckabee 4.3
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.4
Pataki 0.4
Thompson 0.4

The two frontrunners seem to be going in opposite directions on Tradesports, and I think Tradesports is wrong on both counts.  McCain is experiencing a Tradesports slump (now below 40 for the first time in ages), but I think McCain is actually in a very strong position to win the GOP nomination.  Yes, he's got problems, but you can't beat somebody with nobody, and I'm becoming less and less impressed by McCain's rivals by the day.  Sure, McCain still has some problems with the base, but you can say the same for every single one of his rivals, save Tancredo (who I do not believe can win).  McCain is incredibly lucky that folks like Allen and Frist self-destructed so thoroughly, and that Owens' messy divorce in '05 led to him sitting out '08 as well.

And while McCain's ultra-hawkish position on Iraq may hurt him in the general election, I'm yet to be convinced that it will hurt him much in a GOP primary.  And in fact, it may help him with the base, in that, by seeing him take such a strongly conservative position on the most important issue of the day, the base may become convinced that the can't possibly be quite the squishy moderate that they thought he was.

On the flip side, Hillary Clinton seems to have recovered a bit from her December slide on Tradesports, but I think Tradesports is wrong there as well.  To me, she looks more vulnerable than ever.  The only places in the country where you already have a large number of people paying attention to the campaign are Iowa and New Hampshire.  And we now have multiple polls out of both states that indicate that Edwards and Obama are tied or ahead of Clinton in both states.  So how can she still have such a huge lead on Tradesports?  It doesn't make much sense.

Gore drops, Biden gains
McCain hits a several month low
Hagel gain. He and Gingrich now lead Huckabee.

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 18.4
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 2.3
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 37.3
Giuliani 19.0
Romney 16.8
Hagel 5.5
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Brownback 4.0
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Allen 0.4
Thompson 0.4
Tancredo 0.4

UP: Gore, Clark, Allen, Powell
DOWN: Biden

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 18.8
Edwards 15.3
Gore 10.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.8
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.3
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 17.2
Hagel 5.5
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Brownback 3.7
Powell 1.6
Cheney 1.0
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Thompson 0.4

UP: Clinton, Gore
DOWN: Hagel, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 48.3
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.0
Gore 11.4
Richardson 2.1
Clark 1.5
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Dodd 0.5
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.2
Giuliani 18.8
Romney 17.4
Hagel 5.0
Huckabee 4.6
Brownback 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Rice 2.1
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.0
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.7
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Thompson 0.5

State odds for Democrats:

DC 95.0
MA 90.0
RI 90.0
NY 89.5
CA 89.0
VT 87.0
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
HI 85.0
IL 85.0
MD 85.0
NJ 80.0
MI 75.0
OR 75.0
PA 75.0
WA 75.0
ME 70.0
MN 70.0
WI 69.0
NH 65.0
NM 60.0
FL 50.0
IA 50.0
OH 50.0
MO 45.0
VA 35.0
CO 30.0
AZ 30.0
NV 30.0
TN 25.5
AR 25.0
WV 25.0
IN 20.0
LA 20.0
NC 20.0
SC 15.5
KY 15.0
KS 15.0
GA 15.0
AK 15.0
MT 15.0
NE 15.0
SD 15.0
ID 10.0
MS 10.0
ND 10.0
OK 10.0
WY 10.0
AL 8.0
TX 5.0
UT 5.0

Party winner
Democrat 55.3
Republican 43.0
Field 1.8

DemHouse 75.0
DemSenate 76.5

Huh? What? Why so low?

That's what I was thinking.

Also, Dems have an equal shot at taking Ohio and Florida? Ohio should be 55 or so, with Florida somewhere below 50.

UP: Cheney
DOWN: Clinton, Gore

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 18.9
Edwards 15.0
Gore 9.6
Richardson 2.1
Clark 1.5
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Dodd 0.5
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.2
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 17.4
Hagel 5.5
Huckabee 4.6
Brownback 3.8
Gingrich 3.4
Rice 2.0
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.4
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Thompson 0.5

OR and WA are equal odds?

UP: Clinton, Kerry, McCain
DOWN: Pataki, Thompson

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 18.5
Edwards 15.0
Gore 9.6
Richardson 2.3
Clark 1.5
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.2
Dodd 0.5
Warner 0.5
Kerry 0.4


Republicans
McCain 39.5
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 17.6
Hagel 5.1
Huckabee 5.0
Brownback 3.9
Gingrich 3.7
Rice 1.8
Powell 1.4
Cheney 1.4
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.6
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4

With his filing of candidacy, Giuliani has now shot up to 20.0, which is close to highest ever from 2005-7.

UP: Gore, Giuliani
DOWN: McCain

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 18.2
Edwards 15.3
Gore 11.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.6
Clark 1.5
Vilsack 1.2
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.2
Giuliani 19.9
Romney 17.6
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 5.0
Huckabee 4.4
Brownback 4.0
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.3
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Giuliani near record high

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 19.4
Edwards 14.4
Gore 9.1
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.6
Clark 1.5
Vilsack 1.2
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.3
Giuliani 20.7
Romney 17.6
Huckabee 5.4
Hagel 5.0
Gingrich 3.8
Brownback 3.7
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.4
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Allen 0.5

Party winner
Democrat 55.1
Republican 43.1
Field 2.0

DOWN: Clinton, Obama, McCain, Huckabee
UP: Richardson, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 47.0
Obama 18.4
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.0
Richardson 2.8
Biden 1.5
Clark 1.5
Vilsack 1.2
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 37.0
Giuliani 21.4
Romney 18.1
Hagel 4.9
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.6
Brownback 3.7
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.4
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Allen 0.4

They need to catch up. McCain isn't looking quite as good right now.

That's the lowest for McCain in many months.  *Too* low, in my opinion.  I definitely think he has a better than 37% chance of winning the nomination.  Yes, he has his vulnerabilities, but that's not exactly a first rate crop of candidates he's running against!

If we say that the Big 3 of Romney, Rudy, and McCain are the only Republicans with a chance at the nomination, then they should each have around 33%.  If anything McCain's is too high, and I'm still puzzled as to why most of the forum considers McCain to be a shoe-in for the nomination.

I don't think he's a shoe in.  I just think he's the frontrunner...a better chance at the nomination than anyone else.  Better than 37% I think.  I don't understand why you think Giuliani, McCain, and Romney all have to have exactly the same probability of winning.  Just because they're the three leading candidates doesn't mean their chances at the nomination are absolutely identical.

Brownback, Hagel, Gingrich, and Huckabee continue playing leapfrog.

Democrats
Clinton 47.6
Obama 19.7
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.4
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.5
Giuliani 20.5
Romney 18.1
Brownback 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 4.2
Huckabee 4.2
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.3
Powell 1.3
Bloomberg 0.8
Thompson 0.7
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Allen 0.4

Earlier today, Giuliani hit a record high of 25.

UP: Clinton, Giuliani
DOWN: Edwards, McCain, Gingrich, Brownback, Powell, Thompson


Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 20.1
Edwards 12.8
Gore 9.3
Richardson 2.8
Biden 1.1
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 0.7
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 36.2
Giuliani 24.0
Romney 18.5
Hagel 4.1
Huckabee 4.1
Gingrich 3.4
Brownback 3.3
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Allen 0.4

Romney is also close to his record high.  He's been gradually moving up the last couple of months.  Though, yeah, not nearly as fast as Giuliani has been the last couple weeks.

Obama near record high.

DOWN: Clinton, Dodd
UP: Obama, Edwards

Democrats
Clinton 48.6
Obama 21.5
Edwards 13.5
Gore 9.6
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.8
Warner 0.6
Dodd 0.2



Republicans
McCain 36.4
Giuliani 23.2
Romney 18.5
Huckabee 4.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.7
Gingrich 3.6
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Hunter 0.9
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.4

And yet still nowhere near impressive.

Obama and Giuliani both near record highs.

UP: Clinton, Obama, Biden, Giuliani
DOWN: Edwards

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 23.0
Edwards 11.7
Gore 9.1
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.8
Warner 0.6
Dodd 0.2



Republicans
McCain 36.0
Giuliani 24.9
Romney 18.4
Huckabee 4.1
Hagel 4.1
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Hunter 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

Edwards is down pretty significantly from where he was in early January.

The 28,000 sq ft house wasn't exactly helpful to the two Americas fighter for the little man.

Geez.  What was this guy thinking?

Well I guess you don't find Giuliani's numbers impressive either right?

and Romney's are downright crappy.

Actually, no I don't.  I'm suprised McCain is as high as he is.

Clinton breaks 50% for the first time in a while.
McCain is at a several month low.

UP: Clinton, Richardson, Giuliani, Gingrich
DOWN: Obama, Gore, McCain

Democrats
Clinton 50.2
Obama 20.5
Edwards 12.1
Gore 8.4
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.8
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.4



Republicans
McCain 33.5
Giuliani 26.3
Romney 18.3
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.1
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Hunter 0.6
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

Gore plunges :(

Democrats
Clinton 50.2
Obama 20.2
Edwards 11.5
Gore 5.4
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.8
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 32.6
Giuliani 26.1
Romney 18.1
Gingrich 5.4
Hagel 4.2
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Hunter 0.6
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

A lot of talk about how Gore has definitely ruled himself out, but he's still at 6.7%. Note that these things don't add to 100%. Almost every Democrat went up.

Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 22.5
Edwards 11.7
Gore 6.7
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.8
Warner 0.7
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 34.0
Giuliani 26.7
Romney 18.6
Gingrich 5.4
Hagel 4.3
Huckabee 4.3
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Hunter 0.6
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

Obama back near record high.
Gore at a several month low.
Richardson at a several month high.
McCain near a several month low.
Giuliani hit a record high earlier today.

Democrats
Clinton 51.8
Obama 23.0
Edwards 12.5
Gore 6.5
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 33.3
Giuliani 27.9
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 4.2
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

McCain continues into several month lows.
Gingrich near a record high.

Listing the last trade of everyone with a bid

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 22.7
Edwards 12.0
Gore 7.2
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Bayh 0.1
Corzine 0.1
Powell 0.1


Republicans
McCain 32.6
Giuliani 26.1
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.8
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Hunter 0.8
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.2
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Paul 0.1
Santorum 0.1

This sorta goes in the same boat and it makes more sense than starting a new thread.  Odds to be elected President of the United States, from AmericasLine.com.

Rudy Giuliani (R) Former New York City Mayor           4/1
Hillary Clinton (D) New York Senator                         9/2
John McCain (R) Arizona Senator                               6/1
Barack Obama (D) Illinois Senator                            10/1
Mitt Romney (R) Former Massachuetts Governor      12/1
Al Gore (D) Former Vice President                             20/1
John Edwards (D) Former North Carolina Senator    20/1
Mike Huckabee (R) Former Arkansas Governor         25/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General                             25/1
Evan Bayh (D) Indiana Senator                                25/1
Bill Richardson (D) New Mexico Governor                  30/1
Tom Vilsack (D) Former Iowa Governor                     30/1
Sam Brownback (R) Kansas Senator                         30/1
Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska Senator                           35/1
Chris Dodd (D) Connecticut Senator                         40/1
Tom Ridge (R) Former Pennsylvania Governor          40/1
Newt Gingrich (R) Former Speaker                            40/1
George Pataki (R) Former New York Governor          50/1
Bill Frist (R) Former Tennessee Senator                    50/1
Rick Perry (R) Texas Governor                                   50/1
Jeb Bush (R) Former Florida Governor                       50/1
Condoleezza Rice (R) Secretary of State                   50/1
George Allen (R) Former Virginia Senator                 100/1
Dick Cheney (R) Vice President                                 100/1
Michael Bloomberg (R) New York City Mayor             100/1
Colin Powell (R) Former Secretary of State               100/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer Advocate                        5000/1
Michael Moore (I) Filmmaker, Activist                       10000/1

Obama hit a record high of 24.0 earlier today.
He, Clinton, and Richardson seem to be gaining at Edwards and Gore's expense.

On, the Republican side, Giuliani hits a record high, and has nearly caught up with McCain, who has been steadily falling.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 23.9
Edwards 10.8
Gore 7.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.6
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 30.7
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.8
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bloomberg 0.7
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.5

:)

Giuliani has also surpassed McCain on the odds to go all the way and win the general election as well as the primary.  Intrade odds to go all the way and win the general election:

Clinton 28.0
Giuliani 17.5
McCain 17.0
Obama 13.5
Romney 9.0
Edwards 7.9

Divide those #s by the odds to win the nomination, and you find that each of those candidates would have a better than 50% chance in the general election (except Romney, who's at exactly 50%).  I guess this works out if you think that they would all absolutely destroy any of the non-top 3 from the other party.  Otherwise, it wouldn't make any sense.

Richardson has now jumped up all the way to 8.0.  What's up with that?

Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

Richardson seemingly has inherited Vilsack's stock.  He's trading at around a 5.0 now.

Vilsack drops out, his numbers seem to go to Richardson. The Democrats are down to 10 people with more than 0.1% odds.

Democrats
Clinton 51.3
Obama 23.2
Edwards 11.0
Gore 6.8
Richardson 4.9
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.6
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 30.7
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

Just for fun, the numbers from 08/29/05:


Props to the people who sold Allen and bought Obama.

How much money is actually invested in Tradesports on the presidential nominations?  With candidates raising 10s of $millions, wouldn't it be an effective strategy to invest $X,000 to demonstrate rising interest in your candidate?

I don't know about the second sentence, but the volume traded on the presidential nominations is thousands of times larger than that on the individual contracts to win the general election.

--

Giuliani has surpassed McCain on last transaction, although his bid/ask are still lower than McCain's.

Giuliani passes McCain, hitting a record high of 31.0.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 22.8
Edwards 11.0
Gore 8.0
Richardson 4.9
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 30.3
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

Volume might be deceptive though.  Total volume on Colin Powell for the Democrat nomination has been 9500, 10% of that of Hillary Clinton.  But his price has been in the 0.1 to 0.2 range.  Since a contract is for $10, that means $.01 to $.02 per share, for a total of $200.

Betting on Clinton last week might have been $1000.

BTW, Tradesports is splitting off their political and similar bets to something called Intrade.  Tradesports will be solely for sports.

Gore surge
Giuliani continues setting record highs
Gingrich just suddenly surged

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 23.4
Edwards 11.0
Gore 10.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.7
McCain 30.3
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 6.0
Huckabee 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Brownback 3.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

Gore will collapse tonight after he fails to announce at the Oscars. (Alternatively, he could overtake Obama if he announces, but I find that highly unlikely.)

Party winner
Democrat 58.5
Republican 40.6
Field 2.3


()
()
()

Why are is the Democratic Party doing so much better all of a sudden?

Probably more of a "national climate" thing. Once specific candidates are nominated and debate intensifies, the numbers will probably tighten.

So much for that.  There was about a ~25-30% drop in the share price for Gore last night after his non-announcement, but it's now bounced back to about where it was 24 hours ago.

It is rather incredible that Edwards is just barely ahead of Gore.  If Edwards continues his slide of the last two months, it won't be long before Gore passes him.

I can't believe people are still stupid enough to bet on Gore. He made the hype about him running for President into a running gag at the Oscars!

Surprisingly, not much of a drop for Gore.
On the Republican side, some of those who aren't running plumented.

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 22.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 9.8
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.6
Clark 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.5
McCain 30.9
Romney 16.8
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 5.0
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

Winning individual
Clinton 29.2
Giuliani 17.6
McCain 15.5
Obama 15.0
Romney 9.5
Edwards 8.1
Gore 5.9
Allen 1.1
Warner 1.0

9.5 for Romney and 1.1 for Allen. Wow.

Tradesports odds to win the GOP nomination---trendline since January 1st of this year:

()

The x-axis is the day number since the first of the year.  Y-axis is the Tradesports odds of winning the GOP nomination.  Purple is McCain.  Yellow is Giuliani.  Light blue is Romney.  Giuliani and McCain lines don't cross yet, because Giuliani's trend isn't well fit by a straight line.  If the McCain and Romney trends were to continue indefinitely, Romney would pass McCain for 2nd place in about 6 weeks or so....but I don't expect these trends to continue indefinitely.

Tradesports odds to win the Democratic nomination---since January 1st:

()

The x-axis is the day number since the first of the year.  Y-axis is the Tradesports odds of winning the Democratic nomination.  Purple is Clinton.  Yellow is Obama.  Didn't plot the trendlines this time, as they're pretty much flat.  It's weird that Clinton and Obama seem to go up and down at the same time.

Long shot Democrats go down.
McCain continues to tank.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 21.6
Edwards 12.0
Gore 9.2
Richardson 4.0
Biden 2.3
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2



Republicans
Giuliani 31.5
McCain 28.5
Romney 16.9
Gingrich 5.7
Huckabee 5.6
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.6
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

I can't believe Gore is as high as he is.

Let the punters throw their money away on Gore.

Still a <30% shot he runs.  Let Clinton/Obama divide and Gore can conquer come autumn.

Gore has now surpassed Edwards.  He's at 12.0 while Edwards is at 10.7.

Oops, that didn't last long.  Edwards now ahead of Gore again.  Also, as I type this, the gap between Clinton and Obama has narrowed to 26.4, which is narrowest gap between them in over a month.

Gore up.
Giuliani hit a record high of 33.3 earlier today.

Democrats
Clinton 49.9
Obama 23.1
Edwards 11.9
Gore 10.9
Richardson 3.9
Biden 2.3
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Corzine 0.1
Bayh 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 32.6
McCain 28.1
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 5.7
Huckabee 5.0
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.6
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.1
Thompson 0.1
Santorum 0.1

They reset the last, so I'm listing the last for everyone with a trade.
Strangely, almost every Democrat went down, except Clinton who stayed the same.

Democrats
Clinton 50.0
Obama 21.0
Edwards 10.0
Gore 9.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 1.9
Vilsack 0.1
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 29.7
Romney 17.0
Huckabee 7.0
Hagel 4.3
Gingrich 4.0
Brownback 3.5
Rice 1.3
Bloomberg 0.5
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Gilmore 0.2
Paul 0.1
Allen 0.1
Santorum 0.1

You would think Obama would be a little higher by now and McCain would be a little lower.

Numbers are unstable today.
Gore passes Edwards


Democrats
Clinton 47.0
Obama 21.0
Gore 11.5
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.9



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 30.0
Romney 18.5
Hagel 4.3
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 4.0
Brownback 2.5
Rice 1.3
Bloomberg 0.5

McCain's rise has to be attributed to his annoucement on Letterman.

Hillary is tanking
Obama hit a record high of 25.0 earlier
Giuliani hits a new record high
Gingrich and Hunter surge

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.9
Gore 11.9
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Feingold 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1




Republicans
Giuliani 33.8
McCain 30.5
Romney 16.0
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.4
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 2.5
Rice 1.5
Hunter 1.4
Cheney 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1

Thats more like it.

UP: Gore, Romney, Brownback
DOWN: Obama, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, Huckabee, Hunter

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 23.0
Gore 12.9
Edwards 10.0
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Feingold 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1




Republicans
Giuliani 32.0
McCain 28.2
Romney 17.5
Gingrich 5.2
Huckabee 4.9
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1
Gilmore 0.1

It's now intrade.com


Democrats
Clinton 46.9
Obama 24.4
Gore 13.0
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.3





Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
McCain 28.2
Romney 18.8
Gingrich 5.9
Huckabee 4.8
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

Obama and Romney are near a record high
Giuliani is at a record high


Democrats
Clinton 46.0
Obama 24.5
Gore 12.9
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4



Republicans
Giuliani 34.9
McCain 30.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

Obama's currently at a record high of 26.0 with his bid/ask at 26.2/26.3.  Clinton down to 45.6, Gore holding at 12.9 and Edwards down in the high single digits.

Obama is now at a record high of 27.0.

Clinton, Gore and Edwards are all down.

Richardson is up to 3.1.

Obama has the Big Mo... or something.
Nothing that interesting on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 45.5
Obama 28.0
Gore 10.8
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3


()

Obama hit a high of 30.0 earlier today.  His last trade was at 29.3.

Again, all the excitement seems to be on the Democratic side.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.3
Gore 11.5
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Feingold 0.1
Vilsack 0.1

Obama is surging tonight. He is up to 30.0.

Obama surge
()

Giuliani tank
()

Stangely no other Republican seems to be gaining at Giuliani's expense. Maybe they're realizing all their candidates suck.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.6
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.3





Republicans
Giuliani 27.5
McCain 27.0
Romney 17.8
Gingrich 6.0
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.0
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.5
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

For the full glory of Rudy's implosion:

()

Somehow this isn't as helpful to McCain as one would think:

()

Gingrich is up a bit, but Romney's decline more than cancels that out.

WTF, now Rudy is at 34.0? Some serious crap is going on.  He's got an 11.5 point spread between bid and ask.

Yes, Giuliani has rebounded, as has Romney.  McCain's odds are actually now slightly closer to Romney's than Giuliani's.  Which is stunning, when compared to just a couple of weeks ago.

News is that some of McCain's staffers quit when he announced his intention to run on Letterman, and that they should know within two weeks the extent of the damage.

Close to a few month low: Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Dodd, McCain

Close to their record high: Obama, Giuliani, Romney


Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.3
Gore 11.5
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0
McCain 28.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.4]

Note that Obama is now 2nd place here:

Winning individual
Clinton 23.0
Obama 19.5
Giuliani 19.0
McCain 17.0
Romney 8.5
Edwards 8.1
Gore 7.9

Looks like the punters agree that Obama "won" Selma.

Nothing interesting on the Democratic side.
Giuliani surges to a new record high.
Rice seems incredibly overvalued at 3.1.

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 29.2
Gore 12.3
Edwards 8.5
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 19.5
Gingrich 4.4
Huckabee 4.7
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.1
Hagel 2.9
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.6
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

Damn Giuliani is really getting up there.

Giuliani was undervalued for a long time, but I think he's overvalued now. There is still a lot of kick in the conservative movement within the GOP.

Hagel is expected to announce something, so he gains at fellow GOP media whore McCain's expense.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.5
Gore 12.4
Edwards 8.9
Richardson 3.1
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 37.6
McCain 26.2
Romney 19.5
Gingrich 4.4
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 3.9
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.1
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.6
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

I predict that Romney will pass McCain within the next three weeks, at most.

Maybe if  he stops barely polling outside of the margin of error.

Record high: Obama, Giuliani
Near several month low: Clinton, Edwards, McCain

For the first time ever, Giuliani leads McCain by more than Clinton leads Obama.

Democrats
Clinton 44.0
Obama 29.5
Gore 12.3
Edwards 8.3
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 24.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.1
Huckabee 4.1
Hagel 3.6
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.0
Bloomberg 1.1
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

I only wish Clinton started tanking a little later in the year. I don't want her to have a chance to firmly regain her footing.

If she had held on much longer, the media would have begun billing her as a foregone conclusion, and then she'd never have lost.

Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to wish for your candidate to remain the underdog as long as possible before finally breaking out at the last minute.  The bizarre circumstances of 2004 notwithstanding, the later in the game you're able to maintain your status as frontrunner, that harder it gets for anyone else to knock you off.  Better to knock off the frontrunner early if it can be done.  Another thing is that if Obama catches Clinton in the polls soon, it will greatly help his fundraising.  He can't afford to wait too long to catch fire if he wants to raise lots of $.

Fred Thompson has just been added to Intrade.  I'm very curious to see where his share price ends up.  Right now the bid is 2.0 and the ask is 10.0.

F. Thompson has been added to the long list of Republicans with over 0.1%.

Democrats
Clinton 44.2
Obama 29.9
Gore 12.4
Edwards 8.6
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 25.4
Romney 18.3
Gingrich 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 3.0
Brownback 2.7
F. Thompson 2.0
Bloomberg 1.8
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

Thompson's now up to 3.5, which puts him in fourth place.  Gingrich, Hagel, and especially Huckabee are all tanking.  Huckabee's at his lowest level in months.

Pretty boring on the Democratic side.
Fred Thompson is the flavor of the week on the Republican side.
Front-runner Giuliani hits new record highs.
There are now twice as many Republicans than Democrats who are over 0.2.

Democrats
Clinton 44.3
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.6
Edwards 8.6
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.8
McCain 24.0
Romney 16.8
Gingrich 5.5
F. Thompson 3.9
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2

Huckabee has really been hit hard by the emergence of Fred Thompson.

Ron Paul not even listed? Ouch.

Even if I had listed those trading at 0.1 (which I didn't), he still failed my other criteria of having a bid.

Thompson is surging.  He's up to 6.3 now.  How long before his odds at winning the GOP nomination surpass Edwards's odds for the Dem. nomination?  Expect some big movement on Thompson after his appearance tomorrow morning on Fox News Sunday.  (The movement could be positive or negative, depending on what he says about the chances that he'll run for president.)  Then expect big movement on Hagel on Monday when he announces his plans for the future.

Edwards below Gore? Yikes!

Fred Thompson's last transaction is at 8.3.  (wtf)

Republican only update. The flavor of the week not only supports the surge, but is surging. 8.3 is amazing for some obscure guy who hasn't announced he's running. 

Republicans
Giuliani 48.1
McCain 24.0
Romney 16.7
F. Thompson 8.3
Gingrich 5.5
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2

()

We're not quite there yet.  But at the rate things are going, the answer to my question might turn out to be "a few hours".

It speaks volumes about the wretched Republican field. They're desperately searching for a candidate who won't lose too badly next year.

It's been that way for a while, since a couple of days before the Oscars.

No, my point is that Thompson wouldn't be surging if these people didn't think he had a serious chance, and they wouldn't think he had a chance if the existing field was satisfactory.

are you kidding me?  dodd, a leader on health issues, has the same odds of winning the nomination as two guys that have announced they arent running!?!?!

cmon democrats.  get over the platitudes of obama and move to a proven leader.

The Democratic side has little change.
On the Republican side, Gingrich, Hagel, and Thompson form a strong 2nd tier of candidates who haven't announced.

Democrats
Clinton 44.3
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 17.0
F. Thompson 7.4
Hagel 6.3
Gingrich 5.1
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Owens 0.1
Allen 0.1

I'm surprised F. Thompson is as high as he is.

Gore is easing out now. No one is the clear beneficiary.

Lots of activity today.  Obama and especially Giuliani keep surging.  (It might not be long before Giuliani's odds at the GOP nomination exceed Clinton's odds at the Dem. nomination.)  Meanwhile, Gore, Romney, and Hagel are cratering.  Maybe Thompson's odds won't surpass Edwards's, as I anticipated, but they could soon pass Gore's.

I'm still wondering though, if Thompson sits at 7.1 when he hasn't even made a decision on whether to run, where will his price be if he announces?  If he announced tomorrow, I think he'd easily pass Romney.

Democratic side still boring.
Record high for Giuliani.
McCain is probably at the lowest since 2005.
Romney and indecisive Hagel tanking.
Rice and Bloomberg continue to be overvalued.

Democrats
Clinton 44.5
Obama 29.5
Gore 11.7
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 37.8
McCain 23.5
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 5.3
Hagel 3.6
Brownback 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.3

He'll be even higher. Bet on it.

Um...do you think Giuliani and McCain and Thompson would lose "badly" against any of the big three democrats? I can see scenarios, sure...but even though the popular belief should be towards the democrats...I think republicans have stronger candidates running.

Something interesting; VP candidates:

Warner 22.5
Obama 22.0
Richardson 20.5
Clark 12.5
Bayh 11.0
Webb 8.0
Edwards 7.0
H. Clinton 5.0
Gore 3.8
Nunn 2.5

Pawlenty 17.5
Rice 14.7
Romney 14.5
Huckabee 8.0
McCain 7.5
Giuliani 7.1
Graham 7.0
J. Bush 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Hutchison 3.0

Some of those are really skewed; Romney, Clinton and Rice would be liabilities as VP candidates and are highly unlikely. I also can't see Bush or McCain or Gingrich or Edwards as a VP candidate.

Giuliani has the family values of Warren Beatty (he can't keep a family together and you want to give him the free world. LOL) and McCain has gone from being an intense hot head to more docile than Mr. Rogers.  The Dems would destroy either. You should hope it's Fred.


Yeah, from electoralvote.com:

"Rudy Giuliani scores well in national polls, but it is almost inconceivable that he could get the Republican nomination. Here's the ad Karl Rove will use against him: "So, it took him 14 years to realize he had married his second cousin, at which time he asked for an annulment. It could happen to anyone. Then he married a beautiful actress. When his beautiful actress wife got tired of his publicly cheating on her, first with his communications director, Christyne Lategano, then with his soon-to-be third wife, a divorced nurse, she kicked him out of the house, so he moved in with his best friends, a rich, loving gay couple living on Manhattan's chic upper east side." Throw in Giuliani's longstanding support of abortion, gay rights, and gun control, and to the Republican activists who vote in primaries, he might as well be the former mayor of Sodom and Gomorrah. He could become president though. All he has to do is become a Democrat. Imagine, a pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun tough guy former prosecutor. He'd give Hillary a real run for her money. Although he is doing well in national polls, just wait until his interpretation of family values becomes better known."

It would be something else if national security trumped all those issues. Keep in mind, this is the first Republican Primary post-September 11th. Things are different than in 2000.

McCain has now dropped to 20.0....lowest since 2005.  Also, Edwards is ahead of Gore again.

McCain has made a rapid recovery to 22.5. Thompson has cooled a bit to 6.2. Gingrich and Romney are still in freefall, and Hagel is popular. Obama had reached a record high of 32.9 but then dropped back down to around 30 again. Gore is back ahead of Edwards but well below his previous scores (9.9 to 9.7).

Obama was over 31 earlier.
Edwards is catching up with Gore.
Warner is overvalued.
The last week has been terrible for both McCain and Romney.
A lot of the minor Republican candidates go down, including flavor of the week Fred Thompson.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 29.6
Gore 9.9
Edwards 9.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Warner 0.5
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 22.5
Romney 14.0
F. Thompson 6.2
Hagel 4.4
Gingrich 3.8
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2

Since, obviously, a presidential nominee can't choose himself (or herself) to be VP, but has to pick someone else, you can get the Intrade "odds that a candidate will be *either* the presidential or vice presidential nominee" simply by adding the presidential and vice presidential odds for that candidate.  Probability that each of the following will be on their party's ticket, either in the #1 spot or the #2 spot, as derived from Intrade prices:

Obama 54.4
Clinton 49.9
Richardson 24.5
Edwards 16.4
Gore 13.9
Clark 12.9
Warner 10.3

Giuliani 47.5
McCain 30.5
Romney 30.5
Pawlenty 17.6
Rice 14.0
Gingrich 12.0
Bush 10.4
Huckabee 10.3

A new record high for Giuliani. Romney continues to sink. Maybe some people got confused and thought that Tommy Thompson was the flavor of the week.

Democrats
Clinton 44.7
Obama 30.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.8
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 13.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

Either that, or they're counting on Tommy getting some publicity from the inevitable "two Thompsons in the race" news stories.  Or else they're counting on voter confusion.

State probability map

()

Obama hit a new record high of 31.9 earlier today. His gain seems to have come at Gore and Edwards, and not Clinton's expense.

Not much change on the Republican side, with Romney, Rice, and Paul having gains.

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 31.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.8
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.0
Romney 14.6
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 3.0
Brownback 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bush 0.4
Paul 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2

Brownback and Hagel are now at their lowest points since early January.  Compared to a couple weeks ago, Huckabee isn't doing too well either, but he's at least regained some of the ground he lost immediately after the Fred Thompson buzz started.

Gore gains at Obama's expense
Lots of Republicans lose, while only Romney and Jeb Bush (!) gain.

Democrats
Clinton 44.9
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 3.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
McCain 22.8
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.1
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.2
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.7
J. Bush 0.7
Bloomberg 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Cheney 0.5
Powell 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2

I was watching Tucker Carlson's show earlier today on MSNBC.  They had a journalist on who was talking about the effort to draft Jeb Bush.  Maybe some people saw that segment, and decided to buy Jeb shares.

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Edwards gains, otherwise small movement among the Democrats.
The top 4 Republicans all gain, no one seemed to corrrespondingly go down.


Democrats
Clinton 45.2
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.6
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
McCain 23.6
Romney 16.5
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.6
Hagel 2.1
Brownback 2.1
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Cheney 0.6
T. Thompson 0.5
Powell 0.5
Paul 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Owens 0.2

Clinton gains, while other top Democrats lose :(

Lots of Republicans go down, including Romney, Hagel, Brownback, Powell. No one correspondingly gains. There are now only 5 Republicans above 2.2, and only 9 Republicans above  0.5

Democrats
Clinton 46.2
Obama 29.0
Gore 10.0
Edwards 9.9
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 15.4
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Hagel 2.1
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

why is dodd so low?!?!?!

...because he has no chance?

He's only been a Senator for over 20 years, Walter! In order to stand a good shot a Democratic Momentum, you need atleast 18 months Senate experience.

Clinton and Edwards drop a bit.
McCain seriously tanks, Romney is now not much behind him.
Hagel and Brownback are now below Rice. That's pretty harsh.

Democrats
Clinton 45.4
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.7
Edwards 9.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.6
McCain 20.1
Romney 16.0
F. Thompson 7.8
Gingrich 3.7
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

()

Edwards is close to a few month low.
McCain recovers a bit.
Fred Thompson hits a new record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 29.2
Gore 10.2
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 41.0
McCain 22.0
Romney 16.4
F. Thompson 8.7
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.6
Hagel 1.5
Brownback 1.2
Bloomberg 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.3
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.2

we will see about that.

You were right on the first.  Thompson odds to win GOP nomination have now reached a new high of 8.9, while Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination is down to 8.8.  Now we'll have to see if you're right that the next to happen will be Gore surpassing Romney.  Romney has been rebounding in the last week, so it might be a while before it happens...if it happens at all.

If I can step back for a second on this....wow.  Edwards has been regarded as one of the "big three" contenders for the Democratic nomination for months now.  And now, not only do the Intrade betters rate Gore as having a better shot at the nomination, but they also think that Fred Thompson, who first expressed interest in a run about two weeks ago, has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Edwards has at the Dem. nomination?

Rumors on the Internets are that Edwards will announce that his wife has cancer tommorrow and drop out. Of course, I'm hoping that the rumors are wrong.

Well, the WaPo says that Edwards is holding a news conference tomorrow to discuss his wife's health.  But no indication that he's going to drop out:

link (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/21/AR2007032102744.html)

Edwards has now plummetted to 4.5.  He's behind Richardson now.

Edwards is plummenting due to speculation that his wife has cancer. :(
He's lost over 50% in the last day.
Richardson is now ahead of him.

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 31.4
Gore 11.1
Richardson 4.6
Edwards 4.4
Biden 0.9
Dodd 0.5
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1

()

Edwards cratered to 1.0 before going back up to 4.5. Very heavy trading.
Obama is a record high.

Democrats
Clinton 45.8
Obama 32.0
Gore 10.2
Edwards 4.5
Richardson 4.0
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Wow, if Edwards keeps campaigning, anyone who buys now will have 4 or 5 times more money very shortly.

If Edwards stays in, anyone buying his stock now is going to be rich.

Why the hell is Gore still so high?

I wouldn't totally mind being wrong. I like the guy.

Edwards has now rebounded to 7.5.  24 hours ago, he was at 8.8, so he's still down a little from where he was, but anyone who was buying Edwards shares a few hours ago would have made a killing.

I wouldn't expect him to reach 8.8 again any time soon.

There was a trade of 9.0 after the announcement.

Edwards still strong, although Richardson isn't far behind.
Fred Thompson hits a new record high. Unlike fellow 4th placed Edwards, he's leading the next placed guy by a factor of 3.

Democrats
Clinton 47.2
Obama 31.5
Gore 12.0
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 4.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 41.7
McCain 22.5
Romney 16.7
F. Thompson 9.9
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.7
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Paul 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

I still can't believe Gore is so high.

A lot of peons think he will try to swoop into Edwards spot.

If Gore were to announce tomorrow that he's running, how high do you think his share price would be the following day?  That is, does the market actually think that he'll probably run?  Or do they think that there's about a one in five or one in six chance that he's running, but that if he does run, he'd be the overwhelming favorite?

When do the 1st Quarter fundraising #s come out?  About a week or so into April?  That would mean that that's coming up in just about two weeks.  I would imagine that we'll see a lot of movement on Intrade based on how those numbers come out.

National Journal's current predictions are:

Clinton $35 million
Obama $23 million
Edwards $15 million
Biden $9 million
Dodd $8 million
Richardson $8 million

Romney $25 million
McCain $20 million
Giuliani $15 million
Brownback $6 million
Hunter $6 million
T. Thompson $6 million
Gilmore $5 million
Huckabee $5 million

So even though the differences could be small, whoever comes in 4th on the Dem. side could get a bit of a bump (assuming no surprises among the top 3).

And whoever comes in 4th on the GOP side would also likely get a bump.  If Romney really does end up out-fundraising everyone else on the GOP side, he'll get a bump too....maybe even enough to put him ahead of McCain on Intrade for a short time.

Most major Democrats go down, except Clinton. There are now only 6 Democrats above 0.3, of whom Gore is the only one who hasn't filed with the FEC.
Fred Thompson and Bloomberg surge at the expenses of McCain and Giuliani. Fred Thompson now has over half as much as McCain.

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 30.4
Gore 10.9
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 4.3
Biden 1.1
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.8
F. Thompson 11.0
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.4
Brownback 1.1
J. Bush 0.7
Cheney 0.4
Paul 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

so mike bloomberg is 7 times more likely to be teh gop nominee than chris dodd is to be the dem nominee?

umm.  no.

Why is Vilsack the only Democrat to go up?

Democrats
Clinton 47.5
Obama 29.4
Gore 10.6
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 4.3
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.3
F. Thompson 9.8
Hagel 3.4
Gingrich 3.3
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.8
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

A question about tradesports: How do you bet against a candidate? Are there futures contracats like on the stock market, or is there some other mechanism for betting that a contracts price will decline?

Relative pricing of near-zero probability events is not likely to be reliable. For starters, what's the volume there? And, in any case, the price differences are pretty small in absolute terms.  I would say that, for all practical intents and purposes, both are (correctly, in my opinion) viewed as having pretty much zero chance of winning their parties' nomination. I would disregard pretty much all numbers below 4 or 5 as just noise.

When is Gore going to start dropping?

as the Iowa Caucus nears.

Biden drops from 1.0% to 0.4%. There are now only 5 Democrats over 0.4%.
Obama loses, Gore gains.
Basically no movement on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 28.8
Gore 11.0
Edwards 6.8
Richardson 4.4
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.3
F. Thompson 9.8
Hagel 3.4
Gingrich 3.3
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Paul 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Owens 0.1

Look for Thompson to fly over Romney soon.

Maybe.  But the thing holding Thompson back is that there's doubt about whether he's actually going to run.  As long as there's that uncertainty, he can only go so high.

Gore's denials haven't stopped him...

But he's still only at 10.8.  I don't know.  Where do you think Gore would be on Intrade if, tomorrow, he announced that he was running?  And where would Thompson be on Intrade if, tomorrow, *he* announced he was running?

But Thompson hasn't been denying. He said he was leaving the door open. Much more of an affirmation than Gore's statements.

The GOP right wing will not let Rudy Giuliani win this nomination. With McCain fading (and never really being a darling of the right) there is a hole in the field. Thompson is going to fill that void.

Here in Tennessee, I have noticed a concerted effort to boost support for Thompson. WQhen he is mentioned on a blog, especially negatively, there are dozens of responses within 24 hours. There is clearly a "home state" organization in place for Thompson. Key word: organization. He will run. I've placed my bet.

The part of Tradesports not related to sports is now called
 Intrade  (https://www.intrade.com/)

You are actually making a bet with another individual.  Tradesports/Intrade is not a bookmaker where you bet against the house, but more of a broker.

If Edwards is at 7.0, it means that the last trade, someone bet 7.0 that Edwards would win, and someone else bet 93.0 that Edwards would not win.  The winner of the bet will collect 100.0.  In this case the contract value is $10, so the above bet would be $0.70 vs. $9.30.

Let's say that you ask 7.0 for Edwards (you are seeking someone willing to bet 7.0 that Edwards will win), and later the value of Edwards declines.  You might be able to bid 5.0 on Edwards at a later date, and close out your position, giving you a net gain of 2.0 (you have bet a total of 98.0 with a guarantee of 100.0).

I'd think if you were wanting to make money this far out, you would be trying to anticipate price shifts, rather than predict the ultimate winner.

Though you would need to first buy Edwards, correct? So if I think that Edwards will drop from 8 to 4 in the next week, I would first have to buy Edwards contracts at the current price, and couldn't make any money, right? I'd have to wait until I think he's undervalued, buy, wait till he's overvalued, and then sell. But if you think someone will make a steady decline and end up not winning, (such as Clinton, who I'm really thinking about), is there a way to make money?

you want to "sell short".  not sure if that's possible or not.  Basically that is just selling shares you don't own, leaving you responsible to "pay them off" if they ultimately become worth something.  Theoretically, you can later buy them for less if you turn out to be correct that the shares will go down, thus eliminating your ultimate downside, but also capping your profits.

Fred Thompson surges, currently 12.0, had a record high spike of 15.0 earlier. He's closing in on Romney and McCain. He is now almost quadruple the guy in 5th place (Gingrich).
Hagel (timetable vote) and Huckabee tank.

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 29.0
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 4.3
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.3
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 12.0
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1

We're really seeing a tiered system

Democrats:
Tier 1: Clinton, Obama
Tier 2: Gore, Edwards, Richardson
Tier 3: everyone else

Republicans:
Tier 1: Giuliani
Tier 2: McCain, Romney, F. Thompson
Tier 3: Gingrich, Hagel, Huckabee, Rice, Brownback
Tier 4: everyone else

All contracts will eventually end up at 100 or 0.  If you bet against Clinton (she is currently 48.5 to win, or 51.5 to lose) you would collect the 100 at the time she is not nominated.

Thompson has now shot all the way up to 13.3, while Huckabee has plummetted to 0.2(!!).  If anyone ever had any interest in buying Huckabee shares, now would probably be a good time.

They should add Thompson to the "winning individual" section.  I'd be curious to see what kind of odds he would get for the general election.  (Also curious about what kind of odds he'd get if they added him to the VP section.)

Clinton gains at Obama's expense.
Huckabee totally tanks to 0.2, although he's got bids at 0.4 now. It's also been bad, but not as bad, for McCain and Hagel.
Fred Thompson could pass Romney this week. He's now beating the next ranked person (Gingrich) by over a factor of 4.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 28.0
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 4.3
Biden 0.4
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
McCain 20.2
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 13.0
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.8
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Huckabee 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1


()

Don't care for the Clinton rise.

dodd still stuck at 0.2?!?!?!  are you all kidding me.

personally im a little baffled as to why rod blagovich is still stuck at 0.1  :)

Winning individual:

Clinton 24.9
Giuliani 22.0
Obama 17.3
McCain 11.6
Gore 8.1
Romney 7.2
Edwards 5.0
Warner 0.5
Allen 0.6

OK, Allen is way too high, and they probably need to add Thompson, Richardson, Gingrich, and so on.

Party winner
Democrat 56.2
Republican 42.5
Field 1.2

Senate control
Democrat 79.0
Republican 20.0

House control
Democrat 80.0
Republican 20.0

Biden gains.
Giuliani is exactly double McCain.
Thompson continues his upward trend.
Huckabee rebounds a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 27.5
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.7
Clark 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 20.0
Romney 16.2
F. Thompson 13.5
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 2.2
Huckabee 1.8
Rice 1.7
Brownback 1.1
Bloomberg 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

You gotta feel bad when youre someone thats running and are lower than someone who has said they will not run.   >_<

Top 4 Democrats, particularly Edwards go up. Clark and Biden switch places.
Giuliani goes down. Thompson continues to gain, going up even as I post. Bloomberg has a massive gain.

Democrats
Clinton 49.7
Obama 28.3
Gore 10.9
Edwards 8.5
Richardson 3.9
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
McCain 20.5
Romney 16.6
F. Thompson 14.1
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.2
Huckabee 1.7
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.6
Brownback 1.0
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.1
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

Edwards is almost back up to where he was before the E. Edwards cancer story came out.  Before that, he was at 8.8.  Now, he's back up to 8.5.

Thompson has now jumped all the way up to 16.0.  If he keeps this up, he'll pass Romney in no time.

Update: And Thompson has now in fact reached 17.0 and surpassed Romney.  At this rate, how long before he surpasses McCain?

They've also added Thompson to the list of VP choices.  Currently the Ask is 20 and the Bid is 5.

Imagine what he'll be up to when he announces.

Giuliani is crashing, probably due to the news about Kerik.  Thompson is up to 17.0 and basically riding an undefined slope upwards.

Yeah, Giuliani is dropping fast.  Down to 34.0 as of right now.

Thompson may surpass McCain today if this trend holds.

If Giuliani keeps dropping, Obama will soon surpass him on the "winning individual" odds.

The action today is on the Republican side.
Thompson surges at the expense of Giuliani. Thompson was at a record high of 20 earlier. The 3rd placed candidate on both sides of the aisle is now someone not running. Huckabee, Romney, Brownback also had losses, while some others gained.

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 28.4
Gore 10.5
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 34.0
McCain 20.5
Thompson 17.0
Romney 15.1
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.2
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
T. Thompson 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.1
Powell 0.1
Owens 0.1

()
()

Fred Thompson is now listed as the second most likely GOP VP nominee, after Pawlenty.

Also, winning individual odds:

Clinton 24.8
Giuliani 18.5
Obama 18.4
McCain 13.2

Obama on the verge of surpassing Giuliani.

Also, Tommy Thompson has now gotten a boost off the news that he's officially running, and is now up to 1.0, which puts him ahead of Huckabee.  That's quite a turnaround from where those two were not too long ago.

What happened while I was gone?

Gore, Edwards down a bit.
Thompson is over half of Giuliani now.

Democrats
Clinton 49.4
Obama 28.5
Gore 10.5
Edwards 7.5
Richardson 3.9
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 33.4
McCain 21.5
Thompson 17.0
Romney 15.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 2.2
Rice 1.7
Huckabee 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Cheney 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

Yesterday, there was a sudden drop for Giuliani.  Today, just now, there was a sudden drop for Romney.  He's currently at 12.5, which is his lowest point in several months.

Not sure what caused the drop.  Was there something leaked about his first quarter fundraising numbers?  I know that the early speculation was that he'd beat the rest of the GOP field in fundraising this quarter.  Has something come out, showing that his fundraising didn't match expectations?  No idea if that's the case--I'm just speculating here.

McCain and Thompson are on the rise, Rudy and Romney fall.

Actually, Giuliani's stopped falling. It's only Romney who's declining now. There must be a leak of fundraising figures somewhere that shows Romney underperforming.

anyone with half a brain would buy Richardson at this price.... Unless it turns out he shot someone (yes he has "women" problems), he will sky rocket later this year... and 6 million as the hotline said is a real show of strength.

His fundraising numbers must be TERRIBLE. He just crashed to 10.0 from 15.0 just a couple of hours ago.

()

McCain's taking a tumble now that Hotline reported him as behind Giuliani in fundraising numbers. (He was expected to beat Giuliani in fundraising.) Giuliani seems to be the beneficiary, though F. Thompson gained a bit, too. Romney has recovered.

Someone is buying Bloomberg, who is now ridiculously overvalued at 1.1.

I've seen more discussion of Bloomberg for president in recent weeks.  However, all of those rumors say that he would run as an independent rather than a Republican.  So it really doesn't make any sense that people would be betting on him as the GOP nominee.

Romney recovers.
Down: Gore, Hagel
Up: Edwards, Giuliani

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 9.3
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 34.2
McCain 21.0
Thompson 16.8
Romney 15.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 1.7
Rice 1.7
Bloomberg 1.1
Huckabee 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

OK, so it's unclear why Romney really dropped so much last night, only to recover shortly thereafter.  Maybe there were rumors about bad fundraising, but then today of course people found out that that was all bunk, and he actually did very well in the first quarter.

Anyway, McCain is now the one who seems to be crashing (and it just started, so this time it probably *is* the result of the bad fundraising news).  As I type this, he's dropped all the way to 18.0, the lowest he's been since the fall of 2005.  Fred Thompson is at 17.9, so Thompson could pass McCain soon.

McCain is out of the woods now; he's back at 19.0 while Thompson is at 18.0. I don't think he'll decline much further just from fundraising numbers.

Giuliani: 34.2
McCain: 19.0
F. Thompson: 18.0
Romney: 15.8
Gingrich: 3.4

Everyone else is below 2; Hagel dropped considerably to 1.7 this morning and is actually tied with Rice for sixth.

Well, Fred Thompson has now surpassed McCain.  He's at 22.0 right now.  Incredible, considering that he wasn't even on anyone's radar screen a few weeks ago.

Also, Tommy Thompson is now 4th highest on the GOP side among declared candidates or candidates with exploratory committees.  At 1.0, he's ahead of Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Hunter, etc.

Clinton surges, although there's no corrresponding loss elsewhere. In fact, the other Democrats all gain or stay even, except that Obama loses a whole 0.1.

On the Republican side, Flava' of the month surges into second place. His gains are at the expenses of Giuliani and McCain. Romney manages to gain thanks to his fundraising numbers.  Huckabee gains.

Democrats
Clinton 52.0
Obama 28.9
Gore 9.9
Edwards 8.4
Richardson 3.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 32.7
Thompson 22.0
McCain 20.1
Romney 17.3
Gingrich 3.4
Huckabee 2.0
Hagel 1.7
Rice 1.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

So he's been promoted from flavor of the week to flavor of the month?  ;)

Intrade probability of each candidate winning the general election:

Clinton 28.0%
Obama 19.8%
Giuliani 19.0%
McCain 12.5%
Thompson 9.9%
Gore 8.0%
Romney 7.2%
Edwards 5.0%

So yes, Obama has surpassed Giuliani.  Also, yes, that does add up to a greater than 100% probability for those eight candidates alone, but that'll probably be corrected out eventually.

Obama hits a new record high, thanks to his fundraising numbers.  Clinton, Gore, and Richardson drop the most.
Giuliani and Hagel gain (Hagel almost doubles), while McCain, Romney, and Thompson drop. McCain is the lowest since 2005, and is only 3.1 above his record low, but he's reclaimed 2nd place from Thompson.

Democrats
Clinton 50.1
Obama 32.3
Gore 8.6
Edwards 8.0
Richardson 3.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 31.7
McCain 18.1
Thompson 17.9
Romney 16.0
Gingrich 3.4
Hagel 3.0
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

Wow, the GOP side is so wide open it's unbelievable.  *Four* people with a >15% chance of winning the nomination.

Clinton down a bit.
The 2-5th place Republicans gain at 1st place Giuliani's expense.
Sanford goes from zilch to 0.6.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.0
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 3.3
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 28.9
McCain 19.0
Thompson 18.5
Romney 16.7
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.4
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

Obama's odds at the Democratic nomination have now surpassed Giuliani's odds at the Republican nod.

Edwards is down.
It's a close contest for 2nd place on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.0
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.6
McCain 18.8
Thompson 18.5
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.4
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Cheney 0.7
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

Wow, is McCain going to let another person surpass him?

It happened briefly earlier in the week and will probably happen again permanently when Thompson announces.

Thompson is now considerably ahead of McCain (and on a new record, and above 20):

Giuliani: 29.5
Thompson: 20.8
McCain: 18.2
Romney: 16.7
Gingrich: 4.0
Hagel: 2.8

The Democrats are less interesting right now:

Clinton: 47.8
Obama: 31.6
Gore: 9.0
Edwards: 7.6
Richardson: 3.5


I imagine when Thompson actually announces, with numbers this strong already, he'll shoot up to at least 30.

Big movement on winning individual; Obama has nearly become the favorite to win the presidency while Giuliani tanks.

Clinton: 25.9
Obama: 25.0
Giuliani: 14.8
McCain: 12.7
Gore: 7.8
Romney: 7.7
Edwards: 5.2

No one has yet traded on Thompson, presumably waiting to be certain that he's running.

No, there actually was a trade on Thompson before, but then they reset the prices.  Notice how the volume on Thompson is 1 rather than 0.

Everyone with a last, since they just reset it.
Thompson surges. Gingrich and Hagel are up a bit, for a distant 5th and 6th place.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 31.8
Gore 9.0
Edwards 7.6
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Vilsack 0.1
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.9
Thompson 21.8
McCain 18.2
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 1.9
Rice 1.6
T. Thompson 1.2
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
Cheney 0.6
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2

I think he meant: another one apart from Thompson, ie Romney.

Gore and Edwards are close now. Obama goes down a bit.
McCain is no longer far ahead of 4th placed Romney.
Tommy Thompson's I have the same last name as Fred boost might be wearing off.
Some idiots are blowing money on Elizabeth Dole contracts.

Democrats
Clinton 47.8
Obama 31.1
Gore 8.1
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.5
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.8
Thompson 20.8
McCain 17.9
Romney 17.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.0
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.7
Cheney 0.6
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Hunter 0.2
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Dole 0.1

Got to feel sorry for the idiots bidding on Gore.

What the hell is Sanford doing at 0.6?

I guess some people think he might change his mind.

Democrats dominate winning individual.

Clinton 25.9
Obama 22.3
Giuliani 16.7
McCain 12.7
Thompson 10.0
Gore 7.9
Romney 7.7
Edwards 5.2
Allen 0.6
Warner 0.5

PRESIDENT.DEM2008 56.1
HOUSE.DEM.2008 80.5
SENATE.DEM.2008 79.0

I find it amusing that Gore is higher than Romney.

Gore up
Thompson down, McCain passes him.
Bloomberg doubles
Some total joke longshot Republicans actually have a bid now. Perhaps the Republicans are desperate.

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 31.0
Gore 9.4
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 30.5
McCain 19.5
Thompson 18.7
Romney 17.4
Gingrich 3.6
Hagel 2.8
Huckabee 1.9
Bloomberg 1.8
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.7
Cheney 0.6
Sanford 0.6
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Graham 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Dole 0.1
Frist 0.1

I think Edwards is a little underrated right now.

Interesting trend over the past month:

                                                3/9        3/26     4/10     Change

Guiliani                                     40.0      40.5      30.5      -9.5

McCain                                     25.4       20.2     19.5      -5.9

Romney                                   18.3       16.3      17.4      -0.9

F. Thompson                              2.0        9.8     18.7    +16.7

and Fred Thompson hasn't even announced yet!

Holy !@#$, Thompson has now plummeted all the way down to 6.0 off of this lymphoba news.  That's a drop of more than 65% from where he was just minutes ago.

It is very sad.

I am reminded of the late Paul Tsongas.  He a brief cite from Wikipedia article:

In 1983, he was diagnosed with cancer and in 1984 announced his retirement from the Senate. After fighting the illness he returned to politics and in 1992 ran for his party's nomination for President. He ran a strong campaign and succeeded in winning the New Hampshire primary, but was eventually eclipsed by a resurgent Bill Clinton (the "Comeback Kid"), who would go on to win the Presidency. Tsongas was viewed as social liberal and economic conservative. He was especially known for his pro-business economic policies. In particular, he focused on the United States budget deficit and its harmful effects, a cause he continued to champion after his primary campaign ended by co-founding The Concord Coalition.

A few years later the cancer returned and he died of pneumonia and liver failure

RIP

Looks like it will be up to Rudi to stop Hillary from sitting in the White House.  It's a shame.  I was really warming to Thompson.

Well, we already know the numbers and date for filing for a third party candidate in Arizona.

As bad as Hillary is, Giuliani is worse.

Guys, I think you're overreacting to the lymphoma news, and the associated drop at Intrade.  To repost what I wrote in the other thread:

---
I think people are blowing it out of proportion.  This is not like the Elizabeth Edwards situation, where she just found out about the return of cancer weeks ago.  The article says that Thompson has known about this for years, and thus was already thinking about running for president despite the lymphoba.  He also says "I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms. My life expectancy should not be affected. I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future — and with no debilitating side effects."

Thus, I don't think it's any less likely that Thompson will run than it was yesterday.  Granted, there may be some people who will be less likely to vote for someone with health problems, but I doubt that'll be that much of a factor.

One should also note that, according to this article, it's Thompson himself who announced this news.  This actually makes me think it's *more* likely that he'll run.  Why would he keep this a secret for two years, and then talk about it now?  Because he wants to get everything out there early in advance of a presidential campaign.
---

And it looks like people at Intrade are now starting to realize that this may not be as bad as it first sounded.  Thompson shares have rebounded to 14.0.  Still well below the 19.2 he was at a few hours ago, but much better than right after the news broke.

someone should tell those people than arnold is ineligible for the presidency.

Thompson still can win the nomination. Of course his polls will go down a little for now, but once the race starts to heat up and "if" he runs then his numbers will rise and pass McCain.

Sorry Carl, no one on the planet is worse than Hillary.  That would be impossible.  If there is a third party, that would insure that we will all get to find out just HOW bad she is.

Needless to say, I'm no fan of Hillary.

However, I believe that Giuliani is more likely to suceed in pursuing many of the liberal objectives he has in common with Sen. Clinton that she herself would have.

Stupidest thing I've ever read. Osama bin Laden? Kim Jong-Il?

Even if we limit it only to American politicians, Hillary is FAR FAR FAR more right wing than Obama and Edwards, so how is she worse than them?

So "Hillary is far, far more right wing than Edwards and Obama"?

LOL.  Uh, I'm very familiar with her Senate voting record.  It's the same as Edwards (slightly more lefty in fact than his was) and no different than Obama since he entered the Senate. 

Look it up.

"Perhaps"? Wtf? :)

After bashing Edwards for not dropping out when his wife found out she had cancer, Thompson supporters have a problem.

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 30.1
Gore 9.8
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 31.5
McCain 19.8
Romney 18.0
Thompson 14.0
Gingrich 3.5
Hagel 2.5
Huckabee 1.8
Bloomberg 1.8
Rice 1.5
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Graham 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Dole 0.1
Frist 0.1

Were there really that many Thompson supporters who were doing that?  I don't remember that much "bashing" of Edwards at the time.

nah.  Edwards is selfish for not hanging with "the love of his life"  thompson is selfless for using what could be his latter days to do good things for his country and the world.

Hillary is pro-war, those two are not. Plus she served on the board of directors for WAL-MART. She is no liberal.

Maybe. She was pushing for health care when Clinton was going to do NAFTA and welfare reform.

Thompson has now recovered all the way to 18.0 (tied with Romney, and just a bit behind McCain), which is almost as high as his price was two days ago, before the lymphoma news came out.  Edwards is also almost back to where he was before the Elizabeth cancer news came out.

Several Democrats slightly down, with no corresponding gains.
Giuliani's front runner position solidifies, while the next 3 candidates move towards a tie for 2nd place. Gingrich and Hagel also moved towards each other for a tie for 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 29.5
Gore 9.3
Edwards 8.3
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 33.5
McCain 19.3
Romney 17.8
Thompson 15.3
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 1.8
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Graham 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Richardson, Biden, Dodd down
Thompson up
Santorum, LOL

Clinton 48.4
Obama 29.5
Gore 9.5
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 2.6
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 33.0
McCain 19.4
Romney 17.8
Thompson 16.9
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 1.8
Rice 1.5
Bloomberg 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Graham 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

Thompson up, Rice down


Clinton 48.0
Obama 29.4
Gore 9.5
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 2.6
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 33.1
McCain 19.0
Thompson 18.5
Romney 17.8
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
Bloomberg 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Sanford 0.6
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Graham 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

dodd was at 0.3, 'fern.  please correct your post.

McCain seems to be making a modest comeback.

I feel sorry for people who have Wes Clark stock.

Dodd corrected for Mitty
Edwards, Richardson up a bit
Thompson and McCain are tied
Sanford totally drops

Clinton 47.9
Obama 30.0
Gore 9.2
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 2.9
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 33.0
McCain 18.9
Thompson 18.9
Romney 17.8
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.4
Bloomberg 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Paul 0.3
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

McCain and Romney are getting pretty close.  So far, McCain has always been ahead of Romney, but the gap is narrowing.  As I type this, McCain is only 0.6 ahead of Romney.  F. Thompson, on the other hand, tends to oscillate quite a bit more.  Sometimes he's in second place, ahead of both McCain and Romney.  Other times he's in fourth place, behind both of them.

Oh, and on the Dem. side, Edwards has recovered completely from where he was before the Elizabeth cancer announcement.  Before the rumors of that broke, he was at 8.8, and that's where he is right now as well.

Not sure if this will last, but Romney has now tied McCain for the first time ever.  They're both tied for 3rd place at 17.4.  McCain is still well ahead of Romney in the "winning individual" odds though, so I guess the market still thinks that McCain would be a better general election candidate than Romney.

Edwards overtakes Gore
Giuliani falls. McCain falls to tie Romney for 3rd place.
Hagel, Bloomberg gain, Brownback falls

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 29.6
Edwards 9.1
Gore 9.0
Richardson 3.1
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
Thompson 18.6
McCain 17.4
Romney 17.4
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 3.1
Huckabee 2.0
Bloomberg 1.5
Rice 1.3
T. Thompson 0.9
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

I guess the Rasmussen poll was scary to the Clinton backers. Obama's up, but Edwards is down back below Gore again.

Clinton 44.4
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.6
Edwards 9.0
Richardson 2.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.3
All others 0.2 or lower


Musical chairs continues for second place on the GOP side.

Giuliani 32.0
McCain 19.0
F. Thompson 18.0
Romney 16.5
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
T. Thompson 0.9
Bloomberg 0.8
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
All others 0.2 or lower

I wonder who in the hell is putting anything on Hagel.  Family members?

Incorrect.  Hillary Clinton is anti-war.

I've said this before. Listen to her soundbites again. She hasn't actively supported the war since it became massively unpopular to do so, but she hasn't made any move to oppose it, either.

She's Nixonian.

In what way?

As in she'll withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President? I don't think Nixonian is an apt analogy either; she's not promising "peace with honor" or being intentionally vague. Hillary has made it quite clear that she'll initiate a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq if elected President.

Honestly, how is her position on Iraq any different from any other Democratic candidate? They'll all do the same thing if elected. It's all about finding the most electable candidate at this point.