Talk Elections

A new SUSA poll shows Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) leading 51-47 over former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) in Tuesday, December 12th's runoff.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=02122173-a776-42b7-b885-c26296f452e3

This is a bit closer than the last one, which showed Bonilla ahead 53%-46%.

This sample seems a bit more Dem friendly than the previous one:  it has 40% GOP and 40% Dem; the previous poll had 43% GOP and 39% Dem.  Last week's poll had Bush's JA at 49%, this one has him at 44%.

The race will be close, imho.  Right now, I will predict Bonilla 52-48, but Ciro could certainly win this. 

What to watch for is the results from Bexar County.  Early voting should lean GOP, whereas same-day voting should lean Dem (in comparison).  Basically, Ciro needs to win Bexar County probably by a slight margin (like maybe a 1,000 votes) in order to win, because Bonilla will probably win the border county totals (I can't see a candidate like Ciro doing well out there).

There is no party registration in Texas, so gauging registered voters in each party is nearly impossible.  Besides, in a runoff like this where we'll have maybe 15% RV show up, what matters is who actually shows up to vote, not who's a registered voter.

Prediction - Bonilla by eight.

Optimistic prediction, imho, but races like these are very hard to predict because turnout plays a "gigantic" role.

Prediction - More Bonilla people turn out.



:P

Another heartbreaker we will lose by 2-4%.

I'll say...

Bonilla: 52%
Rodriguez: 48%
         

Whens the election?

It is going on as we speak.

:)

Anyone know where results will be posted?

probably at all major texan newspapers and the texan secretary of state page...

I'm sure Dailykos, Redstate, politcal wire, etc. will all have the results up as well.

So...the Dem won this?

Yep.

I really didn't see this one coming. I can't say I am heart broken though. I have met Ciro Rodriguez on several occasions and was impressed with the man. I met Bonilla once and he came off as the stumpy white guy who thought he could win because of the R next to his name on the ballot. Much to much undue confidence.

You do realize that Bonilla is Hispanic and not white (and looks it too). 

Maybe because of the views he holds, he's not really Hispanic, who knows... :P

I do realize. However, in comparison to Ciro Rodriguez...

I didn't know a person's race was dependent on his political views. 

One must always be careful with those characterizations, lest they be proven grossly inaccurate.

Bonilla looks Indian in comparison to Ciro.
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True dat. 

Of course in that area of the world, the mestizos clearly outnumber those who look more European (Ciro looks almost Spanish)

The mestizos were always the ones most likely to immigrate, since the caste system in Latin America really screws them over.

Add to this that mestizos are some 70% of Mexico's population (as against about 15% white). And that white Mexicans are not normally perceived as such even after a single generation in the US (unless, of course, they find it profitable to claim Hispanic identity - see Richardson).