Talk Elections

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/01/28/politics0813EST0501.DTL&type=printable

Presidential candidate John Edwards on Wednesday rejected any notion of sharing the Democratic ticket with front-running rival John Kerry -- unless he is at the top.

Asked on NBC's "Today" show if he would accept second place on the Democratic slate to face President Bush in the fall election, Edwards said: "I think you've got the order reversed. I intend to be the nominee."

Edwards said he would not be willing to be No. 2. "No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice president. I'm running for president," he said.

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Never thought Edwards would be a good pick for VP.  Kerry, if nominated, needs to look for a running mate from Ohio.

why would Edwards say now that he is even thinking about the VP spot? He's got to keep his eye on the prize and his supporters energized.

no major dems from Ohio though.

He has to worry about the gore states first.  Commentators are already taking apart his record and talking he will have t o runa northern strategy and divide the country to win.  Great!  bring it on!  Bush goes everywhere and will make him earn those Gore states.

His gun control voting record alone will sink Kerry inthe south.

Yeah, the Dems had gotten smart and had left the gun issue alone, now it is back with Kerry.

Edwards might help in the south if he was the VP nomminee he say no because he wants the presidential nommination.

 The gun issue is bad news for the democrats they should leave it alone but it will most likely come up.

Exactly. I mean, what else is he supposed to say? "Oh yeah, I really want to be someone else's running mate, I'm just doing all this camaigning for a laugh and people who are throwing all their weight behind me and supporting me are wasting their time."

If Edwards has to drop out he would most likely take the VP spot.

Yes, and in my opinion he's got running mate written all over him, but for as long as he's campaigning he will have to look as if he isn't interested in the VP slot. That and he still has a realistic chance of winning the nominaiton.

Yep, JMF, Jerry Springer would be a great Ohio VP now that you mention it.

Edwards would've been defeated for reelection to the Senate.  He brings NOTHING, not one single state, to Kerry.

All of these candidates know that either Hillary or Gore is going to be the nominee in 2008.  Accepting a VP slot does nothing for Edwards.

Dean can neutralize the issue but Kerry can't.  Sad day for dems when Dean is looking more moderate than Kerry, especially when Kerry has been treated with Kid gloves and Dean has been taking body blows from the media.

Do you think Gore could win in 2008?  I don't.

Edwards would have been in a close race for senate re-election, you can't definitely say that he would have lost it.

it gives hima platform for 2008, otherwise the dream is dead forever.  No one will care about him if he is just a dem primary loser ina weak field and no longer a senator.

I think it will be Hillary, but if she doesn't run, Gore could probably take it.

Edwards would have been the underdog, and it is very doubtful he could deliver NC to Kerry.  Clark would have a better chance with Arkansas if Kerry chooses him.

Bush will lose at most one Southern state in a 50/50 election, and Bush will only lose one if Kerry has a Southern on the ticket.  Trying to win Ark with Clark or NC with Edwards is not worth the risk.  IMO

hopefully if Hillary rus she will lose she would make a horrorable president.  Edwards can't deliver North Carolina the south will most likely go republican

Edwards is a good choice for VP; whilst he wouldn't win NC, he would make FL, AK and Louisiana contestable.

I think that for Kerry, it has to be a midwesterner though; Kerry/Edwards would have trrouble keeping IA, MN and WI, and have no chance at gaining Missouri.

With someone from this area, they might win MO and would prolly keep MN and IA.

Better chance at winning Mo wuith a midwesterner then FL with a southerner, I'd say.

Maybe it could be Gephardt?

I don't see how LA, Ark, or FL would care about a VP from NC.  

yeah but people don't vote for a Pvp as much as they do for a President and Kerry's liberal record wsill not play well in those states.

To make the biggest impact on the south & midwest, you need 2 southerners on the ticket, not 1.

Edwards/Gephardt
Edwards/Breaux

with a moderate midwesterner, Kerry would have MO, IA and MN in the bag.

edwards needs to worry about SC first.  Honestly I think he could have a shot if he wins it and then comes TN and VA soon after.  Plus if Clark could win OK and Dean out west they continue to keep Kerry down in delegates and we could have a close race for a while.

Breaux voted for all the Bush tax cuts, I can't see him as Kerry's VP (Edwards can't win the nomination, so a Edwards/Breaux ticket is out of the question).  

Breaux could be Bush if he were at the top of the ticket...but the Dems who could beat Bush aren't running.

Well, if the Dems ran a Republican the election would only be interesting from a technical view-point, not idelogically.

I'll give you an alternate scenario.  What if Kerry picked Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico, or Bill Nelson, Senator of Florida?

Here's my thinking.  Kerry has to win Ohio, West Virginia and New Hampshire on his own.  Tough, very tough in fact, but do-able if certain things can go his way.   If he picks Richardson (part Hispanic), he has a decent shot at winning Arizona and Nevada.  And maybe, just maybe, the Hispanic population of Dade and Broward (5 years removed from Elian) looks at Kerry-Richardson favorably to just offset the heavy Republican vote from the Gulf Coast and Panhandle - long-shot.  If he picks Nelson, Kerry may not win Arizona or Nevada, but has a solid shot at Florida.

As I understand it, Gephardt is not liked in Missouri other than in his own district.  He would not deliver Missouri to Kerry.  If you need to pick a Midwesterner, you need one who can guarantee Ohio.  No such Democrat exists.

I think the VP comes from Florida or Southwest.

Good points. Also, Ohio has the economy and steel issues to work in favour of the Dems, so the VP-requirement is smaller there.

How about Tom Hrkin for a prominent Democratic midwesterner? Been a senator for IA since the 80's and before that he was in the house for a decade...

Lane Evans from Illinois has also been around since before I was born...

Harkin is too liberal.

yeah but so is Kerry and he is running :)

maybe it's a good if Harkin is the VP since he's a liberal it will help the republicans.

If I was the Dem nominee I would definately select a southerner for a running mate.

He's a little out there, but I think Bob Graham could be a great VP for the dems and could give them a *shot* at Florida.  

Not much long term mileage out of him though.

Florida's big, 27ev's.  bill Nelson may be the better choice out of FLA.

Nelson would indeed be a better choice out of Florida than goofball Bob.  That said, with Kerry at the head of the ticket, dems would be better to look to someone from the midwest.  However, I also agree with Miami that that someone should not be Harkin.  He absolutely is too liberal.

Thing about Florida is that since 2000 it has been trending more Republican.  That, and expect Bush to do somewhat better among jews in South Florida than he did in 2000.  Kerry will need to almost sweep all battleground states outside the South.  Expecting a Massachusetts liberal with a record at least as liberal as Ted kennedy to have more success  in the South than Gore is a pipedream.  And it doesn't matter how many times Kerry mentions Vietnam.

Florida isn't really the south, remember, lots of my relatives live down there, from NY.

Graham isn't that popular in florida anymore, he turned people off with his bush bashing.  Nelson voted for the war, which helps the floridian cause.

always go back to the side note of the senate.  Lets say Kerry picks Nelson and they win.  That gives the GOP 2 more senate seats.  Maybe a small price for the Presidency, but also gives GOP the senate for a long while.

hmmm  Senator Katherine Harris by appointment, nice!

Perhaps this is a quirky idea, but how about former Senator Jeanne Carnahan of Missouri?

Endorsed Kerry yesterday, national name recognition.

Not sure that she has the ambition to be VP, though.

Well she would have female appeal and help in MO, but unclear if she could carry MO.  She lost in 2002 to Senator Jim Talent, while it was close she still lost.

Plus she was never elected to the post and only took over for her dead husband, who won on a sypathy vote.

I agree, Florida nowadays is too different to be counted as a Southern state, nowhere near the same voting patterns.

Jean Carnahan was a lousy candidate in 2002.  She's never won an election on her own. That would be a dumb idea. The only thing that is sensible about it is that Missouri is a good Midwestern state for a national candidate to come from.

You know, if Kerry were to win, I'm not the least bit sure that Romney would appoint a Republican to replace him.  Romney wants to win re-election. He might appoint someone like Steve Grossman who is much more conservative than Kerry.

Exactly, particuarly given the fact that Mass. has a very thin GOP base. I'm sure the Dem Gov. nominee in 2006 could use it against him. Had Lieberman been elected in a 2000, it would have been a similar situation, but at least Rowland could have gotten away with appointing Representatives Shays or Johnson. Outside of Gov. and Lt. Gov., Dems pretty much control everything in Mass.

I thought of a couple of other improvements on Kerry-- Tom Finneran and Stephen Lynch.

who is LT Gov in Mass, a possible replacement, but Bush will crush carry anyway so just speculation.  "We want Kerry" we want kerry"  lets starta chant. :)

How about Tom Vilsack, the Governor of IA?

He won very solidly over Doug Gross in the election.

He is reasonably moderate, and is reasonably well known, especially after the caucus.

He is President of the Democratic Governor's Association...

And he is from the midwest.

He would deliver IA, maybe OH, and MN, IMHO.

Uh, I don't think the governor of Iowa is going to deliver Ohio.

He is a midwesterner, and a rust-beltian. He would certainly increase the chances, certainly moreso then and Floridian.