Talk Elections

http://www.heraldsun.com/nationworld/elections/16-826482.cfm

This poll was taken by Suffolk University between Feb. 24-28.  212 Democrats & 199 Republicans. 

Margin of Error:  +/- 4 pts


REPUBLICANS:

Rudy Giuliani 37 percent

John McCain 27 percent

Mitt Romney 17 percent

Ron Paul 2 percent

Tom Tancredo 2 percent

No opinion 12 percent






DEMOCRATS:

Hillary Rodham Clinton 28 percent

Barack Obama 26 percent

John Edwards 17 percent

Joe Biden 3 percent

Dennis Kucinich 2 percent

Bill Richardson 2 percent

No opinion 17 percent

Go Obama!

Sorry Mike, but if this poll were conducted by the very best firm in the world, the MOE for Democrats is 6%, whereas it is 7% for Republicans.

Don't place much credibility in this poll.

How do you figure that?

Look at the number of respondents.

Knowing that you seem to reflexively disagree with just about every thing I way, here is an explanation from another site.  I am also providing the url for your edification.

There is a nice table at the site:

http://resolutions.co.nz/sample_sizes.htm.

I wasn't reflexively disagreeing with you.  I don't understand how MoE is calculated, and assumed I was missing something less obvious than what I missed.

Thanks for the link.  I've bookmarked it!  :)

Good to see Hillary's front runner status in trouble.

Not really, I think that if Obama wins in NH he can gain momemtum for the other states. Barring that Clinton is way ahead in the big states like OH, FL, and CA, where she needs to be. A new Survey poll has Clinton ahead in CA where the most delegates are.

Head to Head matchups in this NH poll:

Sample = 500 Likely Voters

Clinton: 40%
Giuliani: 50%

Clinton: 39%
McCain: 51%

Clinton: 47%
Romney: 42%

.....

Obama: 41%
Giuliani: 41%
 
Obama: 42%
McCain: 42%

Obama: 48%
Romney: 33%

.....

Edwards: 42%
Giuliani: 47%

Edwards: 43%
McCain: 43%

Edwards: 48%
Romney: 37%

.....

http://www.suffolk.edu/files/SUPRC/march02_2007_marginals.pdf

There's a simple way of calculating it: 0.98/square root(n). (n is the sample size.)

Complete poll results with crosstabs can be found here:

http://www.suffolk.edu/research/18110.html

Looks like they included Clark and Sharpton, but otherwise only included people who've either declared their candidacy or set up exploratory committees.  So no Gore, Gingrich, or Hagel.

The polls are going in the opposite way for the Clintons right now in the general in NH due to the high unfavorability of Hillary Clinton. Views on Obama haven't been fully formed yet. Once Clinton and Obama get the same press treatment then, I think Clinton's numbers will go up. Kerry was behind in NH as well in the general at this point in 2004, he had to wait until the summer of 04 when he selected his VP John Edwards before he started going up in NH. So, I take these general election matchup numbers with a grain of salt.

Correct.

That's the way I did it, but I gave to Alcon the complete (complex) method along with a citation and table.

Uh...that doesn't really make any sense. I think you mean Obama's numbers will go down.

Just thought I'd update this, which Alcon forgot.

I'm confused.  What are you updating?