Talk Elections

I'm doing a research paper for school on the 1968 election, so I thought I'd do an alternate history on it.  I don't know how realistic it will be, but we'll see how it goes.  All things I don't put in here stay the same as in OTL.

The Republican Nomination Fight

March 21, 1968

Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York holds a press conference in Albany.  To the surprise of few, he announces that he will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.  He is immediately entered in a number of primaries (including Nebraska, where all candidates are immediately entered).

Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland, head of the Draft Rockefeller Committee, is given a high level position in the official Rockefeller campaign.

March 31, 1968

President Johnson withdraws from the race.

April 20, 1968

Governor Ronald Reagan, seeing how he has a better chance of winning a three way Republican fight, announces he will not just be a favorite son from California, but he will contest all primaries.

April 30, 1968

In the Massachusetts primary, Rockefeller easily wins with 68% (Nixon did not even campaign here).

May 14, 1968

The results of the first competitive Republican primary is in.

Nebraska:
Nixon: 48%
Reagan: 41%
Rockefeller: 11%

Reagan makes it much closer than expected, which gives him momentum for Oregon.

May 28, 1968

Reagan and Nixon battle it out for the Florida primary, as expected, but Reagan pulls off a victory:
Reagan: 51%
Nixon: 43%
Rockefeller: 6%

However, in Oregon, it is essentially a three way tie, but Rockefeller claims victory:
Rockefeller: 36%
Nixon: 32%
Reagan: 31%

More to come later. . .

By the time of Republican convention in Miami, Nixon is still leading, but Rockefeller and Reagan are right on his heals.  Reagan's meeting with Thurmond helped him greatly in the South.  Nixon's two opponents now have enough votes to probably deny him a first ballot victory.

The first ballot looks like this:
Needed to win: 667
Nixon: 546
Rockefeller: 350
Reagan: 255
Rhodes: 55
Romney: 50
Case: 22
Carlson: 20
W. Rockefeller: 18
Fong: 14
Stassen: 2
Lindsay: 1

On the second ballot, most favorite sons disappear, which actually gives Rockefeller and Nixon boosts due to these favorite sons supporting one of these two candidates:
Nixon: 603
Rockefeller: 423
Reagan: 277
Rhodes: 21
Fong: 9

The third ballot gets rid of all nonmajor candidates.  Also, there is some movement in the Southern delegations from Nixon to Reagan:
Nixon: 580
Rockefeller: 450
Reagan: 303

Delegates now see Nixon as slipping.  Moderates and liberals move towards Rockefeller while conservatives go for Reagan.  There is even talk of a Rockefeller-Reagan ticket.  Rockefeller has taken the lead on the fourth ballot:
Rockefeller: 538
Nixon: 406
Reagan: 389

Rockefeller ascent now stops, as almost every liberal and moderate has already moved towards him.  Reagan gets into second on the fifth ballot:
Rockefeller: 548
Reagan: 433
Nixon: 352

Rockefeller knows that in order to stop Reagan's momentum, he must be able to name a conservative to the bottom of the ticket.  Rockefeller first looks to Agnew as a possible compromise candidate, but a background check shows he has taken kickbacks as governor.  Rockefeller promises the convention that he will name Governor James Rhodes of Ohio as his Vice Presidential nominee if he is nominated.  This brings the support of the Ohio delegation, with its 58 votes (most of which had been supporting Nixon still).  Rockefeller also gets more support from Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin.  As it appears Rockefeller will win the nomination, every remaining moderate rushes to him hoping to get a piece of the action.  This rush, which prompted by Rockefeller's men spreading rumours of his eventual nomination, gives Rockefeller the win on the sixth ballot:
Rockefeller: 679
Reagan: 502
Nixon: 152

Rockefeller realizes his dream and is nominated as the Republican candidate for President.  For VP, Rockefeller grudgingly names Rhodes.  However, his Rockefeller's associates tell delegates to vote for Rhodes, who Rockefeller doesn't actually like too much.  Instead, Rockefeller would rather have Daniel J. Evans, the keynote speaker, who is nominated by Washington.  The first ballot of the VP nomination looks like this:
Rhodes: 555
Reagan: 388
Evans: 311
Romney: 57
Lindsay: 10
Brooke: 1
Not Voting: 11

Lesser candidates and Reagan drop out.  Rhodes nearly clinches the nomination.  Many southern delegates do not vote.  The second ballot:
Rhodes: 651
Evans: 560
Not Voting: 122

However, on the third ballot, with most Southerners already disavowing Rockefeller, he switches his support to Evans, which gives Evans victory:
Evans: 760
Rhodes: 386
Not Voting: 187

The Rockefeller/Evans ticket is nominated by the Republicans for the upcoming election.  However, in the process, Rockefeller has pissed off the Southern and Midwestern wings of the party, which will hurt him greatly in the fall.  Wallace is the main recipient of this anger.  A post convention poll shows the following:
Rockefeller/Evans: 39%
Humphrey/?: 31%
Wallace/?: 22%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Rockefeller's seven point lead is smaller than expected.

Interesting. Keep it up.

The Democratic Nomination Fight

June 5, 1968

Shortly after winning the California primary, Senator Robert F. Kennedy is shot by Sirhan Sirhan.  He dies the next day.

1968 Democratic National Convention:

In a surprisingly close vote, the majority plank (pro-Johnson) on Vietnam is adopted with the follwoing margin:
Majority Plank: 1334.75
Peace Plank: 1274.25

With such a close vote, the Draft Ted Kennedy movement led by California delegation head Jesse Unruh heats up.  On the morning of August 28, 1968, Ted Kennedy is quoted as saying, "If the delegates wish to vote for me, I can do nothing but accept.  I will not withdraw my name if nominated."  In response to this, South Dakota Senator George McGovern, who was basically a stand-in for RFK delegates drops out.

The major candidates for the Democratic nomination are as follows:
Vice President Hubert Humphrey
Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy
Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy
Georgia Governor Lester Maddox

Maddox, who announced a couple of weeks earlier, starts to steal the Southern delegations away from Humphrey.

The first ballot looks like this:
Needed to win: 1312
Humphrey: 1002.25
Kennedy: 546.5
McCarthy: 498
Maddox: 427.25
Others: 148

On the second ballot, Maddox gains in the South (getting nearly all of the 527 delegates).  McCarthy's delegates go to Kennedy, and even Humphrey begins to slip as Mayor Daley switches his support to Kennedy:
Humphrey: 935.25
Kennedy: 792
Maddox: 502
McCarthy: 351.5
Others: 41.25

By the third ballot, Maddox has lost all momentum, actually losing votes.  McCarthy is dead in the water, and almost every other candidate has disappeared:
Humphrey: 984.25
Kennedy: 973.5
Maddox: 421
McCarthy: 233.75
Others: 9.5

However, anti-war delegates now rally behind Kennedy.  McCarthy even drops out and endorses Kennedy, though grudgingly.  Southern delegations begin to move towards Humphrey, but many liberal Humphrey delegates begin to move towards Kennedy as Humphrey moderates his positions to get some Southern support.  On the fourth ballot, Kennedy moves ahead of Humphrey and surprisingly wins the nomination with a few votes over the majority needed:
Kennedy: 1330.75
Humphrey: 1064.75
Maddox: 222.5
Others: 4

Kennedy, who announced his candidacy only that morning, has won the Democratic nomination for President at the age of 36.  For Vice-President, he puts forward the name of South Dakota Senator George McGovern.  McGovern is a surprising choice because he doesn't really add much to the ticket.  However, McGovern has been a long supporter of the Kennedys and even stood in for RFK delegates.  McGovern is easily nominated on the first ballot.  Kennedy also reconvenes the platform committee to change the Vietnam plank for a Dove Plank.

LBJ refuses to come out for Kennedy, instead choosing to remain neutral (in private he supported Nixon).

Soon after this, George Wallace announces that General Curtis LeMay will join his ticket.  This is latest Gallup poll after the announcement of LeMay:
Rockefeller/Evans: 32%
Kennedy/McGovern: 30%
Wallace/LeMay: 25%
Other/Undecided: 13%

With no major pro-escalation candidate, many who support the Vietnam war are now either undecided or supporting Wallace.

The main issues of the general election campaign are law and order and Vietnam.  Rockefeller, who hoped to win over liberals when Humphrey was nominated is now left without a base.  Conservatives in the Republican party are now supporting Wallace or are not going to show up.  Antiwar voters have rallied behind Kennedy, while Rockefeller can claim those in the center.

Kennedy, who invokes the memories of his brothers, begins to gain the polls.  Rockefeller attempts to use his record as Governor of New York, with his desire to help the poor, as a rallying call to Great Society advocates, but even these voters are now behind Kennedy.

A poll in mid-October shows the following:
Kennedy/McGovern: 38%
Rockefeller/Evans: 30%
Wallace/LeMay: 25%
Undecided/Other: 7%

For the part of the campaign, Wallace goes on a blitz advocating not only his hardline position on law and order, but also his support of the escalation of the Vietnam War.  This draws away what little conservative support Rockefeller has left.  Finally, President Johnson announces shortly before the election that the bombing of North Vietnam will halt.  This is seen as him agreeing with Kennedy.  Finally, a few days before the election, Johnson endorses Kennedy.  However, for weeks behind the scenes Johnson has been utilizing the Texas machine, by getting Yarborough and Connolly to sign a temporary truce, to get out the vote for Kennedy.  The final poll before the election shows a boost for Kennedy:
Kennedy/McGovern: 42%
Rockefeller/Evans: 29%
Wallace/LeMay: 26%
Undecided/Other: 3%

On election day, Kennedy's numbers are about what was expected, although maybe a little higher.  Rockefeller does horribly, barely beating Wallace.  In the Northeast, Kennedy wins every state.  The midwest is a sweep for Kennedy, with the right vote split between Rockefeller and Wallace.  In the West, Wallace does extremely well, splitting the vote.  The South is completely for Wallace, even most of the Outer South.  Finally, the Pacific west goes for Kennedy, with even Evans' home state of Washington going for Kennedy.  Overall, the electoral college is blowout for Kennedy:

()
Kennedy/McGovern: 31,589,677 (43.15%), 403 electoral votes
Rockefeller/Evans: 20,977,297 (28.66%), 24 electoral votes
Wallace/LeMay: 20,389,766 (27.86%), 111 electoral votes
Others: 243,258 (0.33%), 0 electoral votes

President Kennedy, who is 36 at inauguration, is seen as inexperienced for the first couple months of his term.  He has trouble adjusting from the Senate to the Presidency, as he still tries to work with legislators as a peer.  However, by about September of 1969 he begins to look like a leader.

Kennedy's first order of business to pull out the troops out of Vietnam.  Although many Democrats, such as Vice President McGovern (privately), want an immediate pullout (meaning in the next six months), President Kennedy knows that he must get Republicans and conservative Democrats on board for any pullout plan to work.

This is the Congress that Kennedy must work with (after the appointments of Goodell (R) in NY to fill RFK's seat and Stevens in Alaska (R) to fill Bartlet's seat):

Senate:
Democrats: 58
Republicans: 42
(As compared to real life, the Democrats were able to hold Oregon)

House:
Democrats: 251
Republicans: 184

Kennedy, by negotiating with hawks in Congress, is able to agree on a two and a half year pullout, but with no restrictions on how long advisors and economic aid will remain for the South Vietnamese government.

In June of 1970, a huge scandal breaks in the Kennedy administration.  It appears as though many senior members of the Defense Department have been taking kickbacks from companies who are helping with the pullout from Vietnam (many of these companies supplying food to the troops and are helping with reintegration into society).  The Undersecretary and a few Assistant Secretaries are implicated in the scandal.  Although no evidence is found against the Secretary of Defense, he nonetheless resigns.

This scandal hurts Democrats across the board in the 1970 elections, with the following results:

Senate:
Republicans: 51 (+9)
Democrats: 47 (-11)
Conservatives: 1 (+1) (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (+1) (caucuses with Republicans)

Republicans and their conservative ally in New York are able to pick up 10 seats.  Additionally, Harry Byrd, now an Independent from Virginia, begins to caucus with the Republicans.  This is the first time Republicans have taken the chamber since the early 1950s.

Democrats are able to hold onto the House, but Republicans make great gains:
Democrats: 220 (-31)
Republicans: 212 (+28)
Independents: 3 (+3) (caucus with Democrats)

Three "peace Democrats" no longer affiliate themselves with the Democrats over disagreement with Kennedy over the Defense Department scandal and over the gradual pullout.

The second half of Kennedy's term shows Kennedy's stark move to the right.  In order to work with the Republicans in the Senate (and Majority Leader Hugh Scott).  Kennedy scales back his expansion of the Great Society programs and agrees to a slightly more agressive Defense budget.

1972 Presidential Election

December 14, 1971

Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota (Humphrey decided not to run for Senate in 1970) declares he is a candidate for the Democratic nomination to oppose President Kennedy.  He says that "Ted Kennedy has shown himself to simply be a puppet of the Republicans in the Senate."

December 20, 1971

Governor William Scranton announces he will be the candidate for the Repubican nomination.  Scranton, the Governor of Pennsylvania, is largely seen as Rockefeller's candidate to represent the moderate and liberal factions of the party.  In 1966, Scranton announced he would never run for office again.  However, he broke this pledge in 1970 when he ran for Governor of Pennsylvania against and won in a landslide victory in the Republican year of pickups.

January 3, 1972

Governor George Wallace of Alabama announces he too will challenge President Kennedy in the primaries.  Kennedy is assumed to be running, though he has made no formal announcement yet.

January 5, 1972

Ronald Reagan announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President.

January 15, 1972

Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee announces he will run for President.

January 19, 1972

In his State of the Union Address, President Kennedy praises his (small) extension of the Greaty Society and the pullout from Vietnam.  Citing this evidence, President Kennedy the next day announces he will seek reelection.

January 24, 1972

The Iowa caucses produce the following results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 64%
Wallace: 17%
McCarthy: 10%
Others: 9%

Kennedy does worse than expected, mainly due to Wallace's good showing.  McCarthy announces that if he does not do well in the New Hampshire primary, then he will drop out of the race.  Many liberals are urging Mo Udall to jump into the race as a viable liberal, anti-war Democrat to the now more moderate Kennedy.

Republicans:
Reagan: 35%
Baker: 30%
Scranton: 23%
Others: 12%

Although Reagn was expected to win, Baker's surprise second place showing gives him the "big Mo.'"  Scranton was supposed to be competing for first, but with this dismal showing, many believe that Rockefeller has now lost all influence in the party.

In the month inbetween Iowa and New Hampshire, no new candidate jump into the race.  All six major candidates still believe that they can clinch victory.  Both Hubert Humphrey and Scoop Jackson considered joining the race, but decided against, believing that Kennedy could not be stopped.

March 7, 1972

The New Hampshire primary has the following results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 55%
McCarthy: 19%
Udall (Write-in): 17%
Wallace: 7%
Others: 2%

Kennedy once again does worse than expected but is still able to hold onto a majority.  McCarthy believes he has done well enough to continue his campaign (although most pundits count him out).  Udall's surprise write-in showing has no propelled him as the main liberal opponent of Kennedy.  Wallace actually does better than expected in such a Northern state.

Republicans:
Scranton: 42%
Baker: 34%
Reagan: 16%
Others: 8%

Although Scranton's showing is a surprise, Reagan's 16% is the shocker of the night.  Reagan was expected to at least get second in this primary, but with only 16%, he is now contemplating dropping out of the race.  The next primary, Florida, is a must win for Reagan to show that the conservative base is still behind him.

March 14, 1972

Florida Results:

Democrats:
Wallace: 67%
Udall (Write-in): 17%
Kennedy: 13%
McCarthy: 2%
Others: 1%

Wallace's result is not unexpected, as many Dixiecrats showed up to vote, but Kennedy's loss to Udall puts Udall as the head challenger to Kennedy.  McCarthy announces he will drop out of the race.  Udall still refuses to formally enter.

Republicans:
Baker: 40%
Reagan: 39%
Scranton: 16%
Others: 5%

Although it is only a one point victory, Baker's upset over Reagan shows that Baker now has much conservative support.  Reagan announces that he will drop out and never run for President again.

March 21, 1972

Illinois Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 51%
Udall (Write-in): 31%
Wallace: 11%
McCarthy (Write-in): 4%
Others: 3%

McCarthy considers jumping back in with a fairly strong write-in campaign, but decides against it.  Wallace does worse than expected, especially in Southern Illinois.  Udall makes a promise that if his write-in campaign does well in the next primary, he will formally jump into the race.

Republicans:
Scranton: 48%
Baker: 36%
Reagan (Write-in): 12%
Others: 4%

Most expected Baker to take this primary, but Scranton's win puts him back in the race for the nomination.

April 4, 1972

Wisconsin Primary Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 47%
Udall (Write-in): 44%
Wallace: 8%
Others: 1%

Udall is able to hold Kennedy to less than 50%.  He announces that he will enter the race for the Democratic nomination.  He immediately receives the endorsement of both McCarthy and Humphrey.

Republicans:
Scranton: 51%
Baker: 38%
Reagan (Write-in): 5%
Others: 6%

Another surprise win for Scranton puts him now ahead of Baker nationally.  Most voters see Baker as too inexperienced compared to Scranton.

April 25, 1972

The day of huge two primaries are essential for all five major candidates.

First, the Massachusetts primary:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 78%
Udall: 19%
Wallace: 2%
Others: 1%

Kennedy easily wins his home state's primary.

Republicans:
Scranton: 61%
Baker: 35%
Others: 4%

Scranton's big win in such a liberal primary state is expected.

Pennsylvania:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 39%
Udall: 36%
Wallace: 21%
Others: 4%

Kennedy is able to hold onto victory, but just barely.  Wallace's showing is unexpected, but he does well in Southwestern Pennsylvania among blue collar workers.

Republicans:
Scranton: 63%
Baker: 35%
Others: 2%

Scranton does very well in his home state, although not as well as expected.  Baker is able to capture over one third of Republicans who voted for Scranton only two years earlier.

May 2, 1972

Two primaries for Republicans and three for Democrats are held today.

DC (Democrats only):
Kennedy: 78%
Udall: 16%
Wallace: 3%
Others: 2%

Kennedy is able to cruise to an easy victory through continued support from the black community.

Indiana Results:

Democrats:
Udall: 42%
Kennedy: 35%
Wallace: 18%
Others: 5%

Udall is able to do what Kennedy's brother did only four years earlier.  Kennedy's loss in this primary shows that Udall is a viable candidate.  Udall also promises that if he is elected, he will pull the remaining 15,000 military advisors out of Vietnam.

Republicans:
Baker: 58%
Scranton: 40%
Others: 2%

Baker's large victory in this primary puts him back into the race.

Ohio Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 45%
Udall: 41%
Wallace: 12%
Others: 2%

Kennedy's win in Ohio is overshadowed by Udall's win in Indiana.

Republicans:
Scranton: 51%
Baker: 48%
Others: 1%

Scranton's small victory is little consolation for his large loss in Indiana.

May 4, 1972

The Tennesse primary is held today:

Democrats:
Wallace: 41%
Kennedy: 36%
Udall: 22%
Others: 1%

Nearly defeating Wallace is a huge feat for Kennedy and gives him needed momentum.

Republicans:
Baker: 81%
Scranton: 14%
Others: 5%

Baker's huge win in his home state gives the momentum for upcoming primaries.

May 6:

North Carolina Results:

Democrats:
Wallace: 46%
Kennedy: 42%
Udall: 10%
Others: 2%

Udall's campaign is failing to win over minorities or conservatives in the party.  Kennedy's again near defeat of Wallace surprises many.

Republicans:
Baker: 62%
Scranton: 37%
Others: 1%

Baker makes another strong shwoing in another Southern primary.

May 9, 1972

Nebraska Primary Results:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 53%
Udall: 33%
Wallace: 11%
Others: 3%

Udall's poor showing does not bode well for the future of his campaign.  He must be able to win West Virginia to show he is viable.

Republicans:
Baker: 55%
Scranton: 41%
Others: 4%

Baker's big win here puts him further ahead of Scranton nationally.

West Virginia:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 40%
Udall: 35%
Wallace: 24%
Others: 1%

Republicans:
Baker: 62%
Scranton: 35%
Others: 3%

Ted follows his eldest brother in winning the West Virginia primary, but Udall's fairly strong showing allows him to stay in the race.

May 16, 1972

The Maryland and Michigan primaries are held today.  Although Wallace hoped to be successful in both primaries early in his campaign, he nows sees that his campaign will not be able to break out of the South.

Maryland:

Democrats:
Kennedy: 45%
Wallace: 27%
Udall: 25%
Others: 3%

Udall's poor showing is expected here.

Republicans:
Baker: 49%
Scranton: 47%
Others: 4%

Scranton needed a win here to revive his campaign.  Scranton essentially drops out of the race after this primary.

Michigan:

Democrats:
Udall: 43%
Kennedy: 35%
Wallace: 18%
Others: 4%

Udall's eight point victory here is a shock to all and holds him in the race.

Republicans:
Baker: 61%
Scranton: 36%
Others: 3%

Baker's win here seals the nomination for him.

From now on, I will only be reporting Democrat primary results.

May 23, 1972

The Oregon and and Rhode Island primaries are held today:

Rhode Island:
Kennedy: 71%
Udall: 27%
Others: 2%

Kennedy's big win is not unexpected.

Oregon:
Udall: 51%
Kennedy: 48%
Others: 1%

Just as happened to his brother, Kennedy loses the Oregon primary.  Wallace did not enter either of these primaries.

June 6, 1972

South Dakota:
Kennedy: 58%
Udall: 36%
Wallace: 6%

New Mexico:
Udall: 46%
Kennedy: 43%
Wallace: 11%

New Jersey:
Kennedy: 53%
Udall: 43%
Wallace: 4%

The final primary of the day was California.  Udall needed a win here to continue his campaign.

California:
Kennedy: 54%
Udall: 39%
Wallace: 7%

With his poor showing here, Udall drops out of the race and endorses Kennedy.

Here is a final map of the primaries/caucuses/state conventions for the Democrats:

()
Kennedy: 35 states
Wallace: 9 states
Udall: 7 states

Here is a final map of the primaries/caucuses/state conventions for the Republicans:

()
Baker: 39 states
Scranton: 11 states
Reagan: 1 state

The Democratic convention in Miami produces few surprises.

Although Udall withdrew from the primaries and stopped campaigning, he did not release his delegates.  However, on the first ballot, Kennedy is renominated with the following vote (after the 1968 convention fiasco, which included too many delegates overcrowding the convention hall, Democrats decided to cut the total down to 1000 delegates, like the Republicans):

Kennedy: 779
Wallace: 124
Udall: 81
Others: 16

Many call on Kennedy to replace McGovern with Udall.  There are rumours that McGovern is connected to the Defense Department scandal.  Although McGovern has a slightly larger problem with renomination, he still wins overwhelmingly on the first ballot:

McGovern: 617
Udall: 225
Bayh: 77
Wallace: 64
Others: 17

The Republican Convention (also in Miami) is much more chaotic.  Going into the convention, most expect Baker to clinch the nomination on the first ballot with about 750 votes.  However, two days before the convention begins, drafts start for other candidates.  The biggest draft is for Reagan (who said he might accept a draft).  Another large draft is for Richard Nixon.  With so little emphasis placed on the primaries in the Republican nomination, Baker could be stopped on the first ballot.

The first ballot is as follows:
Baker: 411
Scranton: 289
Reagan: 222
Nixon: 45
Rockefeller: 21
Others: 12

On the second ballot, Baker gains little ground, though Scranton loses a lot:
Baker: 423
Reagan: 274
Sranton: 184
Nixon: 99
Others: 20

Nixon renounces any draft after this ballot.  The third ballot:
Baker: 478
Reagan: 401
Scranton: 114
Others: 7

In the interest of party unity and showing his personal preference, Scranton drops out after this ballot and encourages all his delegates to vote for Baker.  On the fourth ballot, Baker wins:
Baker: 602
Reagan: 389
Others: 9

Although it took him four ballot, Baker was finally able to capture the nomination.  Now came the choice of picking a Vice President.  Some names mentioned are Rockefeller, Scranton, and even Reagan.  But Baker sees all these men as representing the past of the Republican party.  In order to combat Kennedy's youth and popularity, he decides to pick someone who is from the more moderate, anti-Vietnam wing of the party.  For this he turns to Senator Charles H. Percy of Illinois (who ran as a favorite son in 1968).  Percy, who is 53 years old, accepts.  Conservatives attempt to put up Strom Thurmond to oppose him, but it fails.  Here is the first ballot, on which Percy is nominated:

Percy: 890
Thurmond: 78
Others: 32

Before the Republican convention, most expected Baker to come out of the convention leading Kennedy by at least 5% because Baker actually had an easier time in the primaries.  However, the Reagan draft disrupted this.  Here is the first Gallup poll out of the convention:
Kennedy/McGovern: 44%
Baker/Percy: 41%
Others/Undecided: 15%

And Kennedy's approval rating:
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 47%

With Kennedy's low approval rating, Baker knows that he can go on the offenseive and pick some of those undecided voters.

Baker launches his criticism of Kennedy on Defense affairs, citing the sloppy pullout out of South Vietnam (which is about to fall to the North) and the scandal in the Defense Department.  These attacks work, and by early October, the polls show this:
Baker/Percy: 47%
Kennedy/McGovern: 42%
Other/Undecided: 11%

Many analysts think that if Saigon can be spared until after the election, Kennedy may just be able to hold onto victory.  Kennedy tells his advisors in S. Vietnam to tell the South Vietnamese government to hold Saigon at all costs.  The S. Vietnamese government cooperates and transfers most of its resources to defending Saigon.

Meanwhile, Kennedy and Baker agree to a single debate.  In the debate, Kennedy scores huge victories on domestic policy.  He highlights his ability to work with Republicans in the Senate and compromise on Great Society extension legislation.  He also criticizes Baker for not really choosing a side on Vietnam.  He highlights the split in the Republican ticket on Vietnam policy.  On foreign policy, the debate is seen as a tie.

Here is a poll following the debate:

Who won the debate?
Kennedy: 68%
Baker: 32%

Kennedy/McGovern: 48%
Baker/Percy: 47%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Kennedy now ties Baker in the polls.

Up until one week before election, it seems as though the election could any way.  However, four days before election day, a reporter asks Percy his position on Vietnam.  Percy replies, "We never should've been there in the first place.  It's all John Kennedy's fault for beginning the escalation.  Vietnam was the wrong war, in the wrong place, at the wrong time."

This remark is not only seen as offensive to the memory of JFK in the public's eyes, but also inconsistent with Baker's position on Vietnam.  By election day, Kennedy is leading 52-48 in the polls.

When the results come in, Kennedy's margin of victory shocks the nation.  He wins by 10 points, winning even such conservative states as Arizona and Texas.  Because McGovern is on the ticket, Kennedy is even able to get over 60% in South Dakota.  The results:

()
Kennedy/McGovern: 42,380,461 (54.51%), 403 electoral votes
Baker/Percy: 35,062,339 (45.10%), 135 electoral votes
Others: 297,553 (0.38%), 0 electoral votes

As a side note, 11 days after the election, Saigon falls and all Americans are evacuated out of Vietnam, however many analysts say Kennedy probably would have won anyway.

Here are the House and Senate elections:

Senate:
Republicans: 54 (+3)
Democrats: 44 (-3)
Conservatives: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 56
Democrats: 44

Democrats now seem like a permanent minority in the chamber.  Republicans are able to pick a number of seats in the South.  Also, liberal dissatisfaction with Kennedy causes some Democrats to abandon his Senate candidates at the polls.

House
Democrats: 217 (-3)
Republicans: 217 (+5)
Independents: 1 (-2) (Caucuses with the Democrats)

Only one "peace Democrat" remains in the House as an Indepedent.  However, neither party has a majority in the House.  However, with caucusing, the Democrats have the smallest majority in history:
Democrats: 218
Republicans: 217

In October of 1974, Vice President George McGovern resigns.  Kennedy, who has moved considerably to the right to work with Republicans in the Senate, is now hated by McGovern.  McGovern is in such disagreement with Kennedy over foreign policy issues, that McGovern resigns.

This is a huge blow for the Democrats, who were already struggling to get their agenda through Congress.

In the 1974 midterm elections, Democrats lose even more seats.  After 14 years of Democratic rule in the White House, Americans are simply tired of the Democrats.

The Senate:

Senate:
Republicans: 56 (+2)
Democrats: 42 (-2)
Conservatives: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 58
Democrats: 42

House:
Republicans: 225 (+8)
Democrats: 210 (-7)
Independents: 0 (-1)

The Republicans have taken control of the House for the first time in decades.

Kennedy now has the task of appointing a Vice President that will meet the approval of the Republican Congress.  Republican leadership has specifically shown that they will not except a liberal like Mo Udall, who was one of Kennedy's top choices to ensure party unity.  Furthermore, Republians are likely to reject any well-known Democrat who could lead the Democrats to victory in 1976.

With this in mind, Kennedy decides to choose a relatively unknown candidate: Governor David H. Pryor of Arkansas.  Pryor, who is somewhat liberal for the Southern wing of the party, was elected Governor in 1974.  He served in the AR House from 1960-1966 and the US House from 1966-1973.  Pryor is relatively unknown outside Arkansas, but is respected by his colleagues in the House.

One month after Kennedy nominates him December, the new Congress approves him with the following vote:

Senate:
Approve: 88
Reject: 12

House:
Approve: 331
Reject: 104

Please continue. Interesting to date. Especially the 1968 election- Wallace getting more EVs than the Republicans! :P

1976 Election

As the 1976 election approaches, it will prove to be one of the most wide open elections in US history.

For the Democrats, many doubt whether Vice President Pryor will even run.  Many believe he is too inexperienced and would rather run for Senate from Arkansas.  Kennedy, by compromising and working with Republicans, was able to hold the two ends of the party together, though just barely.  However, liberals and conservatives have already rallied behind their respective candidates.  Liberals are united behind Representative Mo Udall, the man who challenged Kennedy in 1972.  Meanwhile, conservatives have chosen former Texas Governor and current Secretary of the Treasury John Connally as their standard bearer.  Connally, who nearly switched parties in 1973, decided to stay with the Democrats to lead their cause.  Other Democrats who have entered the nomination are Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washington, Frank Church, Adlai Stevenson, and Jerry Brown.

(I will do a different post about the entire Republican nomination)

In the Iowa caucus on February 24th, many of the minor candidates make good showing, which hurts both Connally and Udall, though Udall pulls through a tiny victory:

Udall: 19%
Connally: 18%
Jackson: 14%
Church: 14%
Brown: 9%
Stevenson: 3%
Uncommitted: 18%
Others: 5%

Not one candidate drops out after this caucus, although Stevenson may decide to run as a favorite son.

In New Hampshire, a similar situation occurs, with Udall again winning, though with a very small percentage of the vote:
Udall: 24%
Connally: 20%
Brown: 12%
Jackson: 11%
Church: 11%
Stevenson: 2%
Uncommitted: 11%
Others: 9%

Stevenson drops out after this primary, though he announces he will run in the Illinois primary.

On March 2, Massachusetts and Vermont have their primaries.  These early primaries in Northern states help Udall, though Connally knows that once the Southern primaries come he will do much better:

Massachusetts:
Udall: 38%
Jackson: 24%
Connally: 23%
Brown: 8%
Church: 3%
Others: 4%

Vermont:
Udall: 31%
Connally: 19%
Brown: 18%
Church: 15%
Jackson: 10%
Others: 7%

In Florida (March 9th), Connally wins easily, with the other candidates not even campaigning there:
Connally: 63%
Udall: 12%
Jackson: 8%
Wallace (Write-in): 7%
Brown: 5%
Church: 2%
Others: 3%

In Illinois, held on March 16th, the liberal vote is split between Stevenson is in the primary as a favorite son.  This actually enables Connally to pull an upset and win the nomination:
Connally: 32%
Stevenson: 28%
Udall: 25%
Jackson: 6%
Brown: 4%
Church: 1%
Others: 4%

Many expect Church to withdraw, but he simply decides to restrict his campaigning to primaries in the Mountain West, where his strength is.

North Carolina (March 23rd) is another easy win for Connally:
Connally: 65%
Udall: 24%
Jackson: 5%
Brown: 4%
Others: 2%

With less than half of a percent, Church decides to drop out altogether.  He makes a surprise endorsement of Jackson mostly to oppose the two extremes of the party.

In Wisconsin, Udall finally wins, though Jackson does much better than expected:
Udall: 35%
Connally: 31%
Jackson: 21%
Brown: 8%
Others: 5%

Jerry Brown drops out after Wisconsin and also endorses Jackson.  Jackson is beginning to poll much higher nationally, but most analysts say it is too late to win enough delegates for the nomination.  He is seen as a conservative, non-Southern alternative to Udall.

In Pennsylvania, Connally wins, but it is essentially a three way race:
Connally: 34%
Udall: 32%
Jackson: 32%
Others: 2%

On May 4, DC, Georgia, and Indiana all hold their primaries, with each of the candidates winning one:

DC:
Udall: 66%
Jackson: 19%
Connally: 11%
Others: 4%

Georgia:
Connally: 70%
Jackson: 21%
Udall: 8%
Others: 1%

Indiana:
Jackson: 55%
Udall: 24%
Connally: 18%
Others: 3%

The rest of the  campaign is split pretty much evently between the three candidates.  Although Jackson is discounted as a major candidate for a while, close victories in New York and California ensure him first tier status.  Here is a final map of the primaries:

()
Jackson: 14 states
Connally: 16 states
Udall: 21 states

Iowa and New Hampshire should be lighter colors.

Going into the convention, this is the tally of delegates, with 1000 total delegates and 501 needed to win (remember, there was no McGovern commission, so superdelegates are still very important):
Udall: 317
Connally: 284
Jackson: 241
Others: 38
Uncommitted: 120

The Democratic Convention

Held in New York, the 1976 Democratic convention is seen as the most contested since 1932.  No person is expected to win on the first ballot.

The first ballot is no surprise:
Needed to win: 501
Udall: 355
Connally: 311
Jackson: 254
Others: 80

On the Second ballot, the other candidates disappear, for the most part, which helps Jackson the most:
Udall: 347
Connally: 325
Jackson: 303
Others: 25

However, on the third ballot, votes for other candidates begin to appear as a compromise candidate is now on the minds of the delegates:
Udall: 332
Jackson: 304
Connally: 303
Others: 61

On the fourth ballot, both the left and the right begin to put forward other candidates.  For the left, Frank Church is nominated.  On the right, Lester Maddox is chosen.  The fourth ballot:
Udall: 241
Connally: 234
Jackson: 224
Church: 125
Maddox: 111
Others: 65

By the fifth ballot, liberals and conservatives are split between their two candidates, which enables Jackson to emerge as first:
Jackson: 221
Udall: 179
Connally: 178
Church: 176
Maddox: 170
Others: 76

The sixth ballot is a huge drop for Jackson.  Moderates, who make up most of Jackson's support, are being forced to choose sides:
Udall: 191
Connally: 189
Maddox: 188
Jackson: 180
Church: 167
Others: 85

After this ballot, Jackson drops out.  President Kennedy press him to endorse a candidate to give momentum, but he refuses.  His support is about evenly split.  The seventh ballot:
Udall: 241
Connally: 231
Maddox: 215
Church: 211
Others: 102

On the eigth ballot, there is movement towards Church and Maddox:
Maddox: 255
Udall: 237
Church: 235
Connally: 175
Others: 98

However, on the ninth, Udall responds:
Maddox: 251
Udall: 250
Connally: 213
Church: 187
Others: 99

President Kennedy attempts to intervene on behalf of Udall on the tenth ballot, if only to save the party from destroying itself.  However, it is no use.  Udall gets over 300 votes, but is nowhere close to the nomination:
Udall: 314
Connally: 230
Maddox: 217
Church: 124
Others: 115

By the eleventh ballot, the delegates are tired of the same four candidates.  A compromise candidate emerges in the form of Vice President Pryor, who makes some progress:
Udall: 227
Connally: 219
Maddox: 210
Church: 206
Pryor: 104
Others: 34

Pryor, who gets a surprise endorsement from President Kennedy, moves into second by the twelfth ballot:
Udall: 226
Pryor: 220
Maddox: 219
Connally: 219
Church: 98
Others: 18

Church finally drops out.  Most expect him to endorse Udall, which would only heighten the intra-party divide.  Instead, Church makes a surprise endorsement of Pryor, who moves in first on the thirteenth ballot:
Pryor: 352
Connally: 265
Udall: 263
Maddox: 104
Others: 16

Maddox drops out.  He is expected to endorse Connally, but surprisingly also endorses Pryor.  Pryor comes painstakingly close to winning on the 14th ballot:
Pryor: 487
Connally: 261
Udall: 243
Others: 9

Knowing their cause is useless, both Connally and Udall drop out to endorse Pryor.  Pryor wins in a near unanimous vote on the 15th ballot:
Pryor: 912
Others: 88

Finally, after fifteen ballots, the Democrats have nominated a Dark Horse for President.  Vice President Pryor is the Democratic nominee for the 1976 presidential election, to the shock of even himself.

For VP, Pryor has to choose very wisely.  He knows that any liberal or conservative will be opposed by one wing of the party.  He decides to choose an unknown, by asking former Goergia Governor Jimmy Carter to run on the ticket with him.  Carter, who is from the South, is not very well known in the party.  He has a moderate record.  On the first ballot, liberals put up Church and conservatives Maddox to prevent a first ballot victory.

The first ballot:
Carter: 402
Church: 299
Maddox: 264
Others: 35

In the interest of party unity, both Connally and Udall endorse Carter, although they were expected to endorse Maddox and Church, respectively.  Carter claims victory on the second ballot:
Carter: 611
Church: 186
Maddox: 184
Others: 19

Wah? All those primaries and none of the primary candidates get the nomination?

When it's a three way split with all the candidates being rejected by the other two thirds of the party, I think it's possible for a compromise candidate to emerge.

The Republican Nomination

After losing four elections in a row, the Republicans are ready to nominate a candidate who can win.  Republicans know they need someone fairly moderate, but also someone who won't anger the conservative wing of the party.  For this they turn to Texas Senator George H.W. Bush.  Bush is known as a moderate in the party, but he has built good relations with the conservative wing of the party, including leading conservative Ronald Reagan.

Bush enters the Iowa caucus with only token opposition from Illinois Representative John Anderson Illinois Representative Phil Crane.  In Iowa, Bush gets 58% of the vote.  In New Hampshire Bush receives 64%.  He unstoppable with such establishment support.  He ends up winning every primary.

At the Republican convention, this is the first ballot:
George Bush: 934
Phil Crane: 36
John Anderson: 19
Others: 11

For Vice President, Bush nominates another safe choice.  He picks Kansas Senator Bob Dole, who is nominated by acclamation.

In the first post convention poll, Bush is leading:
Bush/Dole: 53%
Pryor/Carter: 41%
Other/Undecided: 6%

Pryor, insteading of focusing on domestic, economic issues which were the strength of the Kennedy administration, attempts to move to the right on social issues to pick up social conservatives.  What Pryor doesn't understand is that most of these conservatives are already voting Republican because Kennedy's liberalism.  Furthermore, this causes Pryor to lose liberals up North, though it is partially upset by the pickup of some conservatives in the South.  Pryor attempts to put back together the New Deal Coalition by focusing his campaigning on the South.  By mid-October, Bush's lead has only increased:

Bush/Dole: 55%
Pryor/Carter: 38%
Other/Undecided: 7%

Pryor attempts to force a debate on Bush, but Bush refuses, as he is leading and a debate could only harm him.

Bush's campaign focuses on uniting America, liberal and conservative.  He is effective in portraying a moderate message that everyone can rally behind.  By election day, Bush is leading 57-43.  America is simply tired of the Democrats.

On election day, Bush is able to sweep every state except DC, Arkansas, and Georgia (though he is able to get 35% in DC).

Here is the map of the election:

()
Bush/Dole: 48,055,470 votes (58.95%), 517 electoral votes
Pryor/Carter: 32,665,505 votes (40.06%), 21 electoral votes

True Democrat let me first say thanks for doing this.  I have thoroughly  enjoyed reading this piece.  This the way Alternative History should be written. As a matter of fact, its honestly the best work I've seen.  If you wrote a book of alternative political history I'd buy it!!!

On Bush's coattails, the Republicans pick up even more seats in the House and Senate:

Senate:
Republicans: 61 (+5)
Democrats: 38 (-4)
Independents: 1 (caucuses with Republicans)

With caucusing:
Republicans: 62
Democrats: 38

Republicans now have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

House:
Republicans: 248 (+23)
Democrats: 187 (-23)

Did the numbers needed to over-ride a veto get changed in your timeline?

Sorry, I mean to say filibuster proof.  I'll change that now.

The first half of Bush's first term is fairly successful.  With Republicans in control of both houses of Congress, Bush has been able to push through a sligthly more consrevative agenda than expected.  While Bush ran as a solid moderate candidate, Republicans attained such large majorities that he was able to be more conservative.  For this, his approval rating was hovering around 50% as of July of 1978:
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 45%

The Democrats are expected to take back the House in the midterm elections.

However, during an event on October 4th, an assassin kills Bush.  The killer, a disgruntled, mentally disturbed voter for Bush in 76, shot Bush from afar with a sniper rifle, killing him instantly.

Vice President Dole is immediately rushed to a secure location and sworn in  as President.  His first approval rating poll shows the following:
Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 12%

However, the Secret Service still has not secured the area.  Only 10 days later in October 14th, President Dole is running in the Washington area, when another assassin, this time a pro-independence Puerto Rican shoots the President.  Dole is rushed to the emergency room and dies three hours later due to multiple gunshot wounds.

The nation is in turmoil.  Dole didn't have nearly enough time to nominate a Vice President, so the nation turns its eyes to the next person in line for the presidency: Speaker of the House Gerald Ford.  Ford, who was became Speaker in 1975, served as Minority Leader for years.  Ford is reluctant to take on the presidency but knows he must serve his nation.  After inspriring speech from the Oval Office, President Ford makes an announcement that he shall not leave the grounds of the White House until the situation is truly secure.  This gives confidence to the people who have three presidents in the last eleven days.  Ford's first approval rating is as follows:
Approve: 81%
Disapprove: 4%

Although Ford doesn't directly say it or campaign for any candidates, the voters now have a sense that if the Democrats take over either part of Congress, then it will only cause further turmoil for the nation.  President Ford and therefore the Republicans are incredibly popular, thus giving the Republicans huge pickups in both Houses:


House:
Republicans: 301 (+53)
Democrats: 134 (-53)

Senate:
Senate:
Republicans: 71 (+10)
Democrats: 29 (-9)
Independents: 0 (-1) (Byrd becomes a Republican)

Republicans get the biggest majority in the Senate since the Democrats in the 30s.

Very interesting.

Even with a new Republican super-majority, Gerald Ford decides not to turn to the right.  He chooses to stay true to his centrist domestic policy and hawkish foreign policy.  For this, he wins the support of moderates, but loses many conservatives in the party.

The Democrats see conservative support as the only way to win the next presidential election, as Ford has a lock on the centrists.  Wanting to avoid the debacle of the 1976 nomination race, the Democratic establishment decide to turn to a moderate who can keep liberals in the party and pick up conservatives.  Former President Ted Kennedy, still seen as the leader of the party, makes an early endorsement of Georgia Senator Sam Nunn.  Nunn has a lot of experience on national defense and foreign policy.

In the Iowa primary on January 21st, Nunn cleans up against McCarthy (who can't stop running), former Vice President McGovern, and 76 VP candidate Carter (running to the right of Nunn):
Nunn: 44%
McGovern: 17%
Carter: 15%
McCarthy: 10%
Others: 14%

Puerto Rico on February 17th is another huge win for Nunn, though most other candidates avoid the primary altogether:
Nunn: 74%
McCarthy: 11%
Others: 15%

New Hampshire is another huge win for Nunn, though McGovern makes some progress:
Nunn: 38%
McGovern: 27%
McCarthy: 19%
Carter: 7%
Others: 9%

Conservatives have united behind Nunn, so Carter drops out and endorses his fellow Georgian.

Massachusetts and Vermont are held on March 4th, with Nunn having a surprising victory in Massachusetts (due to Kennedy's endorsement):

Vermont:
Nunn: 52%
McGovern: 25%
McCarthy: 17%
Others: 6%

Massachusetts:
Nunn: 35%
McGovern: 33%
McCarthy: 24%
Others: 8%

McGovern, feeling he lost Massachusetts because of divided liberal support, calls for McCarthy to drop out, though he refuses.

On March 11th, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia have primaries, all big wins for Nunn (Nunn is also getting substantial black support):

Alabama:
Nunn: 49%
McGovern: 35%
McCarthy: 9%
Others: 7%

Florida:
Nunn: 53%
McGovern: 28%
McCarthy: 15%
Others: 4%

Georgia:
Nunn: 84%
McCarthy: 9%
McGovern: 6%
Others: 1%

Illinois, on March 18th, is a must win for McGovern for him to stay in the race.  Unfortunately, Nunn cleans up:
Nunn: 45%
McGovern: 31%
McCarthy: 18%
Others: 6%

McGovern agrees that if he can't win New York or Connecticut on March 25th, he'll leave the race:

First, Connecticut is an easy win for Nunn:
Nunn: 55%
McGovern: 23%
McCarthy: 17%
Others: 5%

New York is painstakingly close for McGovern, but McCarthy splits the liberal vote, giving Nunn the win:
Nunn: 39%
McGovern: 39%
McCarthy: 19%
Others: 3%

McGovern drops out, but refuses to endorse Nunn.

After he believes he is assured nomination, Nunn begins to move to the right in order to counter Ford (who Democrats believe to be the likely nominee).  However, McCarthy gains much liberal support and makes a last minute drive for the nomination, winning a few primaries.  However, Nunn simply has too much momentum to lost the nomination.

Here is a final map of the primaries:

()
Nunn: 45 states
 McCarthy: 5 states
McGovern: 1 state

The first ballot at the Democratic convention is an easy win for Nunn, though he has pissed off much of the liberal wing:
Nunn: 889
McCarthy: 54
McGovern: 43
Others: 14

For VP, Nunn is supposed to choose a liberal to unite the party.  McCarthy is one possibility, as McGovern is term limited as VP.  However, Nunn chooses another conservative, 46 year old Alabama Governor Forrst Hood "Fob" James, who was only elected Governor in 1978.
Liberals attempt to put up McCarthy, but this fails on the first ballot, as Kennedy endorses Nunn's choice:
James: 685
McCarthy: 231
Others: 84

Why not make a rightist splinter movement of the neocon types?

The Republican Nomination

By January of 1980, Ford's approval rating is still around 70%, and he easily receives 65% against a generic Democratic nominee.  However, conservatives are still not happy with him.

Yet, Ford still has time to piss off the conservative wing.

On January 14th, Representative Phil Crane, the leader of the conservative wing of the Republicans in the House, announces his candidacy for President.  The first polling shows Crane at about 15% nationwide, with Ford at 70%.

On January 16th, the Republicans barely get through a bill that puts the US on the Gold Standard.  Here is the vote:
Senate:

Republicans:
For: 44
Against: 27

Democrats:
For: 9
Against: 20

Overall:
For: 53
Against: 47

House:

Republicans:
For: 204
Against: 100

Democrats:
For: 52
Against: 82

Overall:
For: 256
Against: 179

Ford is expected to sign the bill, but unexpectedly vetoes it, saying that "President Kennedy was right to take us off the Gold Standard.  Our economy has prospered because of this."

Crane's number immediately go up to 25% nationwide.

During a press on January 18th, President Ford is asked for his opinion on abortion.  Ford, who has so far been silent on abortion, says he believes that the court was correct in its decision of Roe v. Wade.

January 21, 1980

The Iowa caucus results are in.  Two weeks ago, Ford was expected to get o ver 70% of the vote, but Crane nearly pulls an upset:

Ford: 45%
Crane: 43%
Others: 12%

Puerto Rico on February 17th is an easy Ford win:

Ford: 68%
Crane: 30%
Others: 2%

New Hampshire on February 26th is a huge upset for Ford.  Crane actually wins the primary:

Crane: 50%
Ford: 44%
Others: 6%

Luckily on March 4th Ford rebounds in Vermont and Massachusetts:

Vermont:
Ford: 56%
Crane: 39%
Others: 5%

Massachusetts:
Ford: 64%
Crane: 34%
Others: 2%

However, on March 8th, Crane wins South Carolina by a large margin:

Crane: 58%
Ford: 40%
Others: 3%

The rest of the primaries are back and forth between the two candidates.  Here is a final map of the primaries:

()
Ford: 28 states
Crane: 23 states

Next up: The Republican Convention

The Republican Convention

Ford is expected to win on the first round of the Republican convention, but Crane hopes to release the delegates to let more conservative delegates tied to Ford vote for Crane.

On the first ballot, Crane is successful in getting some establishment delegates, preventing a first ballot victory:

Ford: 487
Crane: 454
Others: 59

However, Rockefeller, who still controls much of the liberal wing of the party (and actually got 25 votes on the first ballot even though he wasn't nominated) finally comes out for Ford.  This endorsement of Ford puts gives him the nomination on the second ballot:
Ford: 524
Crane: 463
Others: 13

When asked to take the stage to call for a unanimous nomination for Ford, Crane refuses to do so and leaves the convention hall.

For the VP nomination, Ford is expected to choose a conservative to heal wounds in the party.  However, a behind the scenes deal with Rockefeller means that Ford must put a liberal up for the VP spot.  He chooses New York Senator and former NYC mayor John Lindsay, who is nominated by acclamation on the first ballot (as most Crane delegates have left the convention hall).

The first Gallup poll after the Republican convention shows the following:
Ford/Lindsay: 42%
Nunn/James: 31%
Other/Undecided: 27%

A second poll, with four candidates is included:
Ford/Lindsay: 38%
Nunn/James: 28%
Crane/?: 14%
McCarthy/?: 11%
Other/Undecided: 9%

Crane and McCarthy contemplate getting into the race, but at this time decide against it.

During the Labor Day weekend, a American citizens are taken hostage by the new government of the Ayatollah in Iran at the American embassy.  A rally around the flag idea gives Ford a huge boost:
Ford/Lindsay: 64%
Nunn/James: 25%
Other/Undecided: 11%

Ford may just be able to win in the landslide he desires.

Hawks call on Ford to immediately send in military operation to rescue the hostages.  However, Ford refuses, preferring to instead negotiate with the Iranian government.  This move is extremely unpopular with conservatives, who begin to shift their support to Nunn.  By the beginning of October, Nunn has regained much support:
Ford/Lindsay: 59%
Nunn/James: 36%
Other/Undecided: 5%

On October 3rd, Nunn announces that if he were President he would immediately send a military operation into  Iran to rescue the hostages.  Coupled with the execution of one of the hostages on Iranian television the next day, Nunn receives even more conservative support.  On October 5th, Crane announces his endorsement for Nunn believing that he is the "only candidate who has the will to protect American citizens around the world."

By October 15th, the polls look like this:
Ford/Lindsay: 55%
Nunn/James: 41%
Other/Undecided: 2%

Nunn is slowly gaining support, although many doubt whether he can inch up fast enough to take the election.

While many conservatives are now switching their support to Nunn, liberals are going over to Ford.  Ford, who is now emphasizing his liberal positions on social issues, is winning liberal, dovish support over the hawkish Nunn.  Nunn is also now showing his conservative credentials on abortion on other social issues, though he remains to the left of center on economic issues.

The last poll before the election shows the folowing:
Ford/Lindsay: 50%
Nunn/James: 45%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Some predict that Nunn can pull an upset and win.

As election results come in, the results are extremely odd.  The Northeast is strong for Ford, with Massachusetts again going Republican (Ford wins Massachusetts by a larger margin than he wins the nationwide popular vote).   The South is by far Nunn's best region, while the Midwest leans to Ford.  Ford does incredibly well in the Mountain West, running as the most libertarian candidate.  Ford is just able to hold onto victory in the popular vote, though he has a wide margin in the electoral college:

()
Ford/Lindsay: 45,714,853 votes (52.84%), 406 electoral votes
Nunn/James: 40,220,370 votes (46.59%), 132 electoral votes
Others: 485,355 votes (0.56%), 0 electoral votes

Ford's success actually extends downballot, as Republicans still vote for their conservative reps and Senators.  Republicans actually make gains in the House and Senate, a surprise to most:

House:
Republicans: 304 (+3)
Democrats: 131 (-3)

Senate:
Senate:
Republicans: 72 (+1)
Democrats: 28 (-1)

Over two years of negotiations have taken place, and the American hostages in Iran still are not free.  Ford is still refusing to take military action.  By October of 1982, Ford's approval has sunk to a lowly 19%, the lowest approval rating on record for a President.  Ford is reluctant to take action.  He also knows that he is barred from running for reelection.  The economy, with near record high inflation, has spun out of control.  Republicans talk of kicking him out of their party.  Even VP Lindsay ahs begun to distance himself from the President.  In the House and Senate, Republicans are refusing to work with the President on anything.  Generic ballot polls taken just before the 82 midterms show the Democrats leading 57-43.

The day before the midterm elections, the Iranian students behead three more hostages on Iranian television, the first beheading since October of 1980.  The Democrats campaign on a strong national security and promise to force the President's hand to intervene in Iran.

On election day 1982, the Democrats produce one of the largest reverals in  American history (perhaps the largest since 1890 or whenever that huge switch was).  They take back both Houses of Congress:

House (after election):
Democrats: 227 (+96)
Republicans: 201 (-103)
Independent Republicans: 7 (+7)

House (after switches):
Democrats: 254 (+123)
Republicans: 174 (-130)
Independent Republicans: 7 (+7)

Seven Republicans refuse to share a party with Ford and run as "Independent Republicans" though they continue to caucus with the Republicans.  27 Republicans switch to the Democrats after they take the House.

With caucusing:
Democrats: 254 (+123)
Republicans: 181 (-123)

Democrats are only able to take back Senate for two reasons:
1. Of the 33 seats up, 26 are controlled by Republicans.
2. A number of Republicans, realizing how unpopular their party is decide to swtich to the Democratic Party (6 of them).

Senate (after election):
Republicans: 54 (-18)
Democrats: 46 (+18)

Senate (after switches):
Democrats: 52 (+24)
Republicans: 48 (-24)

Here's a list of Presidents and VPs since the beginning of the timeline:

Presidents:

Lyndon Johnson (D): November 22, 1963 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Goldwater (R) in 1964
Edward Kennedy (D): January 20, 1969 - January 20, 1977
     defeated Rockefeller (R) and Wallace (AI) in 1968
     defeated Howard Baker (R) in 1972
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Pryor (D) in 1976
     assassinated on October 4, 1978
Robert Dole (R): October 4, 1978 - October 14, 1978
     assassinated on October 14, 1978
Gerald Ford (R): October 14, 1978 - January 20, 1985
     defeated Nunn (D) in 1980
Paul Tsongas (D): January 20, 1985 - ?
     defeated Stevens (R) in 1984

Vice Presidents:

Vacant: Novebmer 22, 1963 - January 20, 1969
Hubert H. Humphrey (D): January 20, 1965 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Miller (R) in 1964
George McGovern (D): January 20, 1969 - October 11, 1974
     defeated Evans (R) and LeMay (AI) in 1968
     defeated Percy (R) in 1972
     resigned on October 11, 1974
Vacant: October 11, 1974 - January 30, 1975
David Pryor (D): January 30, 1975 - January 20, 1977
Bob Dole (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Carter (D) in 1976
     resigned on October 4, 1978 to become President
Vacant: October 4, 1978 - November 15, 1978
Jacob Javits (R): November 15, 1978 - January 20, 1981
John Lindsay (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1985
     defeated James (D) in 1980
Al Gore (D): January 20, 1985 - ?
     defeated Danforth (R) in 1984

As a side note: Ford appointed the noncontroversial the ailing Jacob Javits to the VP spot in 1978 (with nearly unanimous approval from Congress) as a caretaker for the office until the next election.

earlier I had posted what a great job on this timeline you've done True Democrat............but its gone downhill badly.  I do appreciate your efforts, but this timeline got away from you around '76.  Just not in the slightest believeable past that

Would you mind telling me what's not believable?

It's still quite good; keep it up.

Any effects on international geopolitics or domestic policy?

Well, the US is refusing to get involved in Iran, which is strenghening extremism in the Middle East.  This also makes the USSR a little stronger than in real life.  If the US seemed weak under Carter, it's even more so under Ford, as the hostages have been there for 2 years now and he's done nothing.

Quite interesting still.

Well I find the Dole assasination immediately on the heels ( within two weeks) of Bush's assasination a stretch -- but I'd be willing to let that pass on artistic license.  What is really hard to swallow is to even consider that Bush had anywhere near the gravitas to run for President in '76, far much less, Crane or Anderson in '76 being as both were very limited at that time in the House of Reps, unlike in '80.  I just feel its far more likely that a more established Republican like Nixon or Reagan would just stand by and watch only Anderson, Bush and Crane run in '76.

You certainly do write better than I ever could and the first part of the story was the most awesome I've seen on Alt History boards.  I've been visiting at least 4 different AH forums for a while now.  I was just dissappointed in the ultra fantasy turn thats all

It's probably due to the fact that I'm doing a research paper on the 1968 election, so I know a lot more about it.

In the time since the 1982 midterms, President Ford has finally been forced to intervene in Iran.  The Democratic congress threatened a vote of no confidence in the President (something that had never been done before) if Ford didn't intervene (by this time his approval was a mere 16%).  Ford sent a secret CIA mission to rescue the hostages at the American embassy.  Although the mission was ulitmately successful, two American servicemen was killed by Iranians, for which Ford heightened US embargos on Iran.

By his 1984 State of the Union, Ford's approval is back up to 37%, with the Democratic Congress having an approval of 46% (very high for Congress).

As the 1984 election approaches, the Democrats are ready to nominate a candidate who can finally win after eight years of losses.  The Republicans also  wish to avoid the liberal-conservative divide that has hurt their party in the past.

By the time of the Iowa caucus, the delcared candidate for the Democrats are Senator Walter Mondale of Minnesota, Representative Dick Gephardt of Missouri, Representative Paul Simon of Illinois, and Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts.  All of these candidates are relatively inexperienced, but with so few Democrats on the national stage with Republicans overhwhelmingly controlling Congress for so long, these are seen as some of the best candidates.

On February 20th in Iowa, Simon, Gephardt, and Mondale (all from neighboring states) do best, with Tsongas in a distant fourth:
Gephardt: 27%
Mondale: 24%
Simon: 23%
Tsongas: 15%
Others/Uncommitted: 11%

However on February 28th, Tsongas rebounds by winning his neighboring state of New Hampshire:
Tsongas: 31%
Simon: 23%
Gephardt: 21%
Mondale: 20%
Others: 5%

Vermont on March 6th is another win for Tsongas:
Tsongas: 30%
Simon: 27%
Mondale: 19%
Gephardt: 15%
Others: 9%

On March 13th, Super Tuesday occurs, with mixed results, although Tsongas does fairly well:

Alabama:
Gephardt: 45%
Tsongas: 32%
Mondale: 11%
Simon: 9%
Others: 3%

Florida:
Tsongas: 35%
Gephardt: 33%
Simon: 18%
Mondale: 12%
Others: 2%

Georgia:
Gephardt: 53%
Tsongas: 22%
Simon: 15%
Mondale: 7%
Others: 3%

Massachusetts:
Tsongas: 66%
Simon: 14%
Gephardt: 12%
Mondale: 6%
Others: 2%

Rhode Island:
Tsongas: 58%
Simon: 18%
Gephardt: 15%
Mondale: 8%
Others: 1%

Nevada:
Gephardt: 35%
Tsongas: 29%
Simon: 18%
Mondale: 14%
Others: 4%

Oklahoma:
Gephardt: 55%
Tsongas: 30%
Mondale: 8%
Simon: 6%
Others: 1%

Washington:
Simon: 31%
Tsongas: 29%
Gephardt: 26%
Mondale: 9%
Others: 5%

Mondale, taking fourth in nearly every primary, decides to drop out of the race, making no endorsement at this time.

Puerto Rico on March 18th is a nearly uncontested win for Tsongas:
Tsongas: 78%
Simon: 15%
Gephardt (Write-in): 6%
Others: 1%

Simon takes his home state's primary on March 20th:
Simon: 48%
Tsongas: 27%
Gephardt: 23%
Others: 2%

Connecticut is held on March 27th.  Simon is still finding it hard to break through in the liberal areas that should be voting for him:
Tsongas: 45%
Simon: 35%
Gephardt: 19%
Others: 1%

The big primary of New York held on April 3rd essentially seals up the race for Tsongas:
Tsongas: 41%
Gephardt: 28%
Simon: 28%
Others: 3%

Gephardt comes back and wins Pennsylvania on April 10th, but most believe it is too late:
Gephardt: 42%
Tsongas: 38%
Simon: 18%
Others: 2%

Simon drops out after Pennsylvania and endorses Tsongas.  After this endorsement, Mondale too makes an endorsement of Tsongas.

May 1st is DC and TN:

DC:
Tsongas: 65%
Gephardt: 28%
Others: 7%

TN:
Gephardt: 53%
Tsongas: 39%
Others: 8%

On May 8th, four primaries are held, with Gephardt saying he must win at least two to stay in the race:

Maryland:
Tsongas: 59%
Gephardt: 38%
Others: 3%

Ohio:
Tsongas: 56%
Gephardt: 40%
Others: 4%

Indiana:
Tsongas: 49%
Gephardt: 48%
Others: 3%

North Carolina:
Gephardt: 56%
Tsongas: 43%
Others: 1%

Gephardt essentially drops out and stop campaigning, but keeps his name on the ballots, enabling him to win a couple of extra primaries.

Here is a final map of the primaries/caucuses/state conventions:

()
Tsongas: 35 states
Gephardt: 14 states
Simon: 2 states

At the Democratic convention, Tsongas wins on the first ballot:
Tsongas: 742
Gephardt: 115
Simon: 98
Mondale: 26
Others: 19

Most expect Tsongas to choose an elder statesmen for VP, as Tsongas is only 43 years old.  However, Tsongas decides to instead to choose the extremely young Representative Al Gore of Tennesse, who is only 36 years old.  Gore is seen as a moderate, Southerner who is a bit inexperienced, but will balance the ticket well.

Gporter - Be patient, TD will get to them. He does a great job at his work.

TD - I take it Tsongas doesn't fall ill to cancer, correct? Keep in mind that was what caused him not to run for reelection in '84.

No cancer, yet. . .

The Republican Nomination

Hoping to avoid the last couple of nominations which pitted liberals against conservatives, the center and right of the Republican party decide to unite behind a candidate in order to avoid any large fight.

On December 6, 1983, Vice President John Lindsay announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination.  Lindsay is the candidate of the dying liberal wing of the party.  Also, with Lindsay carrying the baggage of the Ford presidency, he is unlikely to win the nomination or the general election.  Lindsay has attempted to position himself away from Ford, but with Ford's approval still stuck at 35% (even Republicans only have a 43% approval), Lindsay is unlikely to not appear as Ford's candidate.

The Republicans and conservatives decide to put up conservative Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska.  Stevens, who is 61 and was first elected in 1968, is conservative, but not too conservative for the moderate wing of the party.

In the Iowa caucuses on Feburary 20th, he scores a huge win against Lindsay:
Stevens: 58%
Lindsay: 26%
Others: 16%

Lindsay does slightly better in New Hampshire on Feburary 28th, but he still loses:
Stevens: 53%
Lindsay: 38%
Others: 9%

On March 6th, Lindsay actually manages to win Vermont, just barely:
Lindsay: 46%
Stevens: 43%
Others: 11%

However, on Super Tuesday, Stevens wins nearly every primary:

Florida:
Stevens: 57%
Lindsay: 35%
Others: 8%

Georgia:
Stevens: 65%
Lindsay: 28%
Others: 7%

Massachusetts:
Lindsay: 62%
Stevens: 33%
Others: 5%

Rhode Island:
Lindsay: 60%
Stevens: 33%
Others: 7%

Nevada:
Stevens: 58%
Lindsay: 39%
Others: 3%

Oklahoma:
Stevens: 71%
Lindsay: 25%
Others: 4%

Washington:
Stevens: 50%
Lindsay: 45%
Others: 5%

Illinois on March 20th is a must win for Lindsay to stay in the race, but Stevens takes it by a fairly solid margin:
Stevens: 56%
Lindsay: 41%
Others: 3%

Lindsay stops campaigning, but keeps his name on the ballot.  This allows him to win a few more primaries (like New York) to give him some leverage at the convention.

A final map for the Republicans:

()
Stevens: 45 states
Lindsay: 6 states

I am really enjoying this Alternative History timeline. Keep up the good work True Democrat. If Tsongas is elected in 1984 over Stevens, will his cancer catch up with him during his presidency?

Wait and find out. :)

At the Republican convention, Stevens wins on the first ballot:
Stevens: 881
Lindsay: 107
Others: 12

Stevens first offers Lindsay to serve another term as Vice President.  Lindsay at first says yes, but sensing that Stevens only asked out of courtesy (think JFK and LBJ), Lindsay later retracts his acceptance.

Stevens then goes to the well-liked Senator John Danforth of Missouri to be VP.  Danforth accepts and is nominated by acclamation.

The ages of the candidates, with the exception of Stevens, are all very young:
Stevens: 61
Danforth: 48
Tsongas: 43
Gore: 36

In the campaign, Tsongas and Gore campaign on Ford's refusal to intervene in Iran.  Also, they attempt to use the economy to their advantage, saying that Ford is refusing to work with Democrats to end high unemployment (something that is not entirely true).

Stevens on the other hand attempts to use his age and experience for him, saying Tsongas and Gore are much too young to be elected.  He runs a number of campaign ads asking if Americans want the 36 year old Gore a "heartbeat from the presidency."

By early October, the polls show the following:
Tsongas/Gore: 54%
Stevens/Danforth: 38%
Other/Undecided: 8%

In the first presidential debate, Stevens performs extremely well, citing his 16 years in the Senate compared to Tsongas' 6 years.  Also, with this debate focusing on domestic policy, Stevens cites cooperation with Democrats in the House under the Kennedy administration as an effort to show bipartisanship.  Viewers say Stevens wins this debate 65-35.

In the VP debate, the two young canddiates square off.  On domestic issues, Gore shows his moderation, especially on social issues.  However, when it comes to foreign policy, Danforth uses his expertise to show Gore to be too young to be president.  Viewers give Danforth a 60-40 win.

By this time, the polls show the following:
Tsongas/Gore: 49%
Stevens/Danforth: 46%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Stevens has picked up a number of undecided voters and even some former Tsongas supporters.

In the final presidential debate, focusing on foreign policy, Stevens does very well by laying out a comprehensive plan to work with the USSR to diffuse tensions and reduce the number of nuclear arms.  Tsongas attempts to show Stevens to be weak on foreign policy, but to no avail.  Stevens wins this debate 70-30.

The final polls going into the election show this:
Stevens/Danforth: 54%
Tsongas/Gore: 43%
Other/Undecided: 3%

In the final Gallup poll, Stevens has pulled to eleven points ahead.  Some pollsters say the race is much closer than this, but most believe that Stevens will win at least 53% of the popular vote and over 300 electoral votes.

However, as returns come in on election, it appears that the race will be much closer than thought, due to a great GOTV operation by the Tsongas campaign.  While Stevens does fairly well out West (though not nearly matching Ford's last numbers), Tsoongas nearly all of New England.  The South is a disappointment for Tsongas, winning only Gore's home state of Tennessee.  However, it wll all be decided by the midwest.  By 1 AM, it has all come down to one state: Ohio.  Although Tsongas has a fairly well sized lead in the national popular vote, Ohio will make or break the election for him.  Finally, at 3 AM, Ohio is called for Tsongas.  The final vote tally in Ohio is a Tsongas win of a mere 0.547%, or 24,918 votes.  (Other close states include Missouri (Stevens by 5,123) and Vermont (Tsongas by 3,699).)  Tsongas wins the election in an amazing comeback:

()
Tsongas/Gore: 46,562,505 votes (50.26%), 275 electoral votes
Stevens/Danforth: 45,698,430 votes (49.32%), 263 electoral votes
Others: 392,298 votes (0.42%), 0 electoral votes

Congressional Elections:

House:
Democrats: 243 (-11)
Republicans: 192 (+11)

Senate:
Republicans: 51 (+5)
Democrats: 49 (-5)

Democrats, who had tremendous gains only two years earlier, lose a number of seats in both houses because of the loss of many freshmen Congressmen.  In the Senate, three former Republicans switch back to their old party (which is no longer under the control of Ford) to make the Republicans have a majority, though just barely.

Working with the Democratic House and Republican Senate, President Tsongas is able to get a nummber of bills through, including a fairly large works bill that restores some of the programs of Great Society struck down by the Republican Congress under Bush.  In exchange for this, Tsongas has agreed to pull all US troops from around the world, vastly reducing troop levels especially in the Middle East after the 1983 Beirut attacks.  Tsongas has also encouraged business growth in his typical pro-business fashion.

Everything in Tsongas' government is running smoothly by the 1986 midterms.  However, in August of 1986, Tsongas announces he has cancer.  Although not yet life threatening, Tsongas announces that he may have to invoke temporary presidential disability in the future if his treatment becomes more radical.  He asks the nation to "unite during this time of personal struggle.  As a great nation, we can still accomplish great things."  Tsongas is able to effectively stop the fears of the nation.  Voters are inspired by his speech in the Oval Office and know that a united Congress is needed.  Breaking traditional fashion, Democrats gain in the 1986 midterms:

House:
Democrats: 259 (+16)
Republicans: 176 (-16)

Senate:
Democrats: 53 (+4)
Republicans: 47 (-4)

Any more?

Soon.  I have two research papers (one on the 1968 election actually :P) and three ap tests in the next two weeks, so I'm a bit busy.

By the spring of 1987, Tsongas' cancer has progressed so badly that he must temporarily relieve himself of the duties of the office of the President.  Unfortunately the doctors caught it very late.

On May 19, 1987, Vice President Gore formally takes over the duties as president.

Throughout the summer, Acting President Gore does not take much action, contacting Tsongas on the signing of bills and whatnot.  He also makes very few public statements, most of them on Tsongas' health anyway.

However, by about July of 1987, Tsongas' condition has worsened.  Every treatment has thus far failed.  For the good of the country and his health, Tsongas makes the decision to resign, formlally resigning on July 12, 1987.  Gore, in a somber ceremony knowing Tsongas' death is near, takes the oath of office in the East Room of the White House the same day.

Gore's first order of business is to appoint a Vice President, with congressional approval.  Gore makes a surprise choice and chooses fellow conservative and pro-life Democrat Bob Casey, the Governor of Pennsylvania.  Casey was first elected Governor in a surprise upset in 1978 when he defeated Dick Thornburgh (in a very Republican year).  Casey was easily reelected in 1982, winning all but one county with 67% of the vote.  He ran for Senate against Arlen Specter in 1986, but lost in a very close election.

After several weeks of questioning, Casey is approved in the House by a vote of 296-139.  In the Senate, it is a vote of 74-26.

Gore then gets to work as President.  However, Tsongas has left Gore a government that is a mess.  A number of curruption scandals have surfaced in the Labor and HUD departments, which Gore is now seen as responsible for.  Furthermore, the farm crisis in the midwest has gotten much worse.  With all these problems building up, Gore's approval moves from 81% when he took office to 34% by the new year.

As the 1988 election approaches, President Gore announces shortly after his first State of the Union that he will run for the Democratic nomination for President.  By the time of the Iowa caucus his approval is back up to 45%, though he still has a 76% approval rating among Democrats.

In Iowa on February 8th, Gore easily wins, though he does badly in Iowa because of the farm crisis:
Gore: 61%
Uncommitted: 30%
Others: 9%

In New Hampshire on February 16th, Gore again easily wins:
Gore: 78%
Uncommitted: 10%
Others: 12%

South Dakota on February 23rd is Gore's biggest win yet:
Gore: 56%
Uncommitted: 37%
Others: 7%

Here is a map of the primaries after Super Tuesday on March 8th.  Gore officially gets enough delegates after these primaries:

()

However, on February 13th, the independent investigation investigating the scandals in the HUD and Labor Departments come out with their report.  What nobody had expected is that Gore is directly implicated in the scandals, when he was VP.  Although the extent of his participation is not yet known, his approval rating immediately falls to 31%, even Democrats now only have a 47% approval of him.  However, by this time he has locked up the nomination in terms of delegates.

Two day's after the report about Gore's involvement in the scandal has come out, another primary is held in Illinois.  Although Gore wins, a number of people write-in other candidates or vote uncommitted:

Gore: 40%
Uncommitted: 38%
Simon (Write-in): 13%
Others: 9%

After this primary, Simon, Biden, Jesse Jackson, and Gephardt all annouonce their willingness to be drafted into a candidacy if they get enough write-in votes.

In Connecticut on March 25th, Gore wins mainly due to the opposition being split:

Gore: 31%
Uncommitted: 15%
Simon: 14%
Gephardt: 14%
Biden: 12%
Jackson: 10%
Others: 4%

None of the challengers are willing to drop out at this time, even though they know the chances of getting Gore's delegates released at the convention are low.

However, on April 1st, former President Tsongas, who made a miraculous recovery from cancer over the winter, announces that he is not opposed to a draft to try to unseat his former VP.  After Tsongas went into remission President Gore did make an offer for VP Casey to resign, Gore would then appoint Tsongas VP, and then Gore would resign, making Tsongas president once again.  However, Tsongas felt this would cause more harm than good to Washington.

The next day, Biden and Simon drop out, endorsing Tsongas.  Two days later Gephardt gives up the effort to be drafted, leading only Jackson refusing to drop out.

In Wisconsin on April 5th, Tsongas is able to win a huge victory, mainly because of the continuing farm crisis:
Tsongas: 57%
Gore: 34%
Jackson: 5%
Others: 4%

In New York on April 19th, Tsongas wins again, although this time it is much closer (with Jackson fareing worse than expected in NYC):
Tsongas: 46%
Gore: 44%
Jackson: 7%
Others: 3%

Jackson drops out of the race and endorses Tsongas.

Gore is able to rebound and win a close victory in Pennsylvania April 26th:
Gore: 53%
Tsongas: 45%
Others: 2%

However, on May 3rd, Tsongas shocks everyone by winning all three primaries:
DC:
Tsongas: 63%
Gore: 22%
Jackson (Write-in): 11%
Others: 4%

Indiana:
Tsongas: 54%
Gore: 44%
Others: 2%

Ohio:
Tsongas: 57%
Gore: 40%
Others: 3%

For the rest of the primaries, Tsongas wins a clear majority, although Gore is able to do fairly well in the mountain west.

()
Gore: 34 states
Tsongas: 17 states

Number of delegates committed to each candidate going into the convention:
Gore: 619
Tsongas: 243
Jackson: 7
Others: 16
Uncommitted: 115

With so few delegates, Tsongas knows the only way to win the nomination is to get the convention to release  Gore's delegates.

As the Democratic convention approaches, President Gore attempts to rearrange the order of the convention to allow the ballotting to take place on the first night, before Tsongas can speak.  However, even Gore's own men oppose this plan.

On the first night of the convention, Tsongas speaks, as a former president normally would have.  He gives an inspiring speech asking for unity in the party in the face of adversity.  He also calls on the delegates to participate in "true democracy" by voting to release the delegates in light of recent scandals.  After Tsongas speaks, former President and current Senator Ted Kennedy speaks (Kennedy took Tsongas' seat after he was elected in 1984).  Although he makes no official endorsement, Kennedy nonetheless asks for the delegates to vote their conscience on the two candidates.

The next night the balloting takes place (Gore got it moved up one night).  The Massachusetts delegation (in which nearly every delegate is tied to Gore) makes a motion to have the delegates released from their primary voting positions.  The motion is accepted by the Chairman and seconded by Washington.

The Chairman first attempts to have a voice vote for releasing delegates, but delegates see how that could be manipulated, so a roll call vote is requested.

Here is an analysis of the roll call vote:
In Favor of Releasing Delegates: 559
Opposed to Releasing Delegates: 441

Committed Gore Delegates:
In Favor: 267
Opposed: 352

Committed Tsongas Delegates:
In Favor: 222
Opposed: 21

Other Committed Delegates:
In Favor: 22
Opposed: 1

Uncommitted Delegates:
In Favor: 48
Opposed: 67

It's a fairly close vote, but ultimately successful.

On the first ballot, Tsongas is able to claim victory, although it is one of the closest ballots in Democratic history, with Wyoming ultimately deciding the winner.  If Wyoming had instead gone to Gore, a second ballot would have been required:
Tsongas: 502
Gore: 492
Others: 6

Tsongas contemplated choosing Casey for VP, but ultimately decides against it.  In trying to emphasize economic  farm recovery in the midwest, which in addition to ethics reform has been the main theme of this campaign, Tsongas chooses North Dakota Governor George Sinner, a key Tsongas supporter on the farm issue.  Sinner is not very well known, but is seen as experienced as a midwest Governor and former Represntative.

For the Republican nomination, the main candidates are Stevens (again), former Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Senator Alan Simpson of Wyoming, Senator Pete Wilson of California, and the very young, Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana.  With no governors in the race, Many see the lack of Republican talent as a result of the belief that Gore could not be beaten (he had approvals in the 80s in 1987.

In the Iowa caucus held on February 8th, Alexander's win is no surprise, but Quayle, a fellow midwesterner, somehow claims second:
Alexander: 31%
Quayle: 18%
Stevens: 16%
Simpson: 14%
Wilson: 14%
Others: 7%

New Hampshire on February 16th is a much closer race, with Wilson doing better than expected:
Alexander: 30%
Wilson: 29%
Quayle: 15%
Stevens: 11%
Simpson: 10%
Others: 5%

Stevens and Simpson drop out after this primary.

Alexander is expected to win South Dakota on February 23rd, but Quayle has spent most of his time campaigning there and pulls off a surprise victory:
Quayle: 36%
Alexander: 32%
Wilson: 25%
Others: 7%

With Wilson's win in Vermont on March 1st, Alexander no longer stands as the clear frontrunner:
Wilson: 41%
Alexander: 35%
Quayle: 21%
Others: 3%

Alexander knows he needs to win South Carolina on March 5th to have any standing.  However, conservatives, especially social conservatives, are now abandoning Alexander for Quayle who is campaigning against abortion, gun control, and violence in video games and music.  This enables Quayle to win fairly solidly in South Carolina:
Quayle: 45%
Alexander: 32%
Wilson: 19%
Others: 4%

Most expect Alexander to stay in the race (and many believe he can still win), but Dole instead drops out and makes no endorsement.

Super Tuesday on March 8th produces huge results for Quayle over Wilson in most states:

Alabama:
Quayle: 66%
Wilson: 30%
Others: 4%

Arkansas:
Quayle: 56%
Wilson: 37%
Others: 7%

Florida:
Quayle: 51%
Wilson: 44%
Others: 5%

Georiga:
Quayle: 59%
Wilson: 39%
Others: 2%

Kentucky:
Quayle: 55%
Wilson: 41%
Others: 4%

Louisiana:
Quayle: 71%
Wilson: 28%
Others: 1%

Maryland:
Quayle: 54%
Wilson: 44%
Others: 2%

Massachusetts:
Quayle: 49%
Wilson: 48%
Others: 3%

Mississippi:
Quayle: 75%
Wilson: 23%
Others: 2%

Missouri:
Quayle: 58%
Wilson: 40%
Others: 2%

North Carolina:
Quayle: 57%
Wilson: 42%
Others: 1%

Oklahoma:
Quayle: 65%
Wilson: 30%
Others: 5%

Rhode Island:
Wilson: 50%
Quayle: 48%
Others: 2%

Tennessee:
Quayle: 63%
Wilson: 36%
Others: 1%

Texas:
Quayle: 69%
Wilson: 28%
Others: 3%

Virginia:
Quayle: 62%
Wilson: 35%
Others: 3%

Quayle considered a lightweight auditioning for VP in the primaries, goes onto the win the nomination easily, after defeating Alexander, with the following map of the primaries:

()
Quayle: 44 states
Wilson: 5 states
Alexander: 2 states

At the Republican convention, Quayle wins on the first ballot:
Quayle: 913
Wilson: 38
Alexander: 24
Others: 25

Quayle first offers VP to Wilson, but refuses, citing future plans to run for governor.  Quayle then asks inexperienced, Republican Governor H. Guy Hunt of Alabama.  Hunt immediately accepts and is nominated by acclamation.  However, this choice is seen as horrible because it does not bring experience to the ticket, something Quayle needs to face the popular Tsongas.

The first poll out of the Republican convention shows the following:
Tsongas/Sinner: 58%
Quayle/Hunt: 34%
Other/Undecided: 8%

Although Tsongas has a large lead in the beginning of the campaign, this is mostly due to sympathy over his cancer and his momentum from defeating Gore.  However, as time goes on, Quayle is able to effectively tie Gore's and Tsongas' policies as president to the farm crisis in the midwest.  While Tsongas was leading by 15 points in this region earlier, his lead is now down to about 10.  Furthermore, as the probe of the investigation releases more reports, it appears as though Tsongas had some involvement in the scandal, though no direct involvement.  Tsongas refuses to debate Quayle, believing that his poll numbers could only drop further from a debate.

By early October, Quayle has made the race much closer:
Tsongas/Sinner: 52%
Quayle/Hunt: 45%
Undecided/Other: 3%

Finally by mid-October, Tsongas, seeing his poll numbers drop, agrees to debate Quayle.  Tsongas, going into the debate, believes he will lose to Quayle's youthful charisma.  However, on a question about the experience for the presidency, Quayle compares himself to Jack Kennedy.  Tsongas is able to effectively neutralize this comparison, to the disdain of Quayle (though it was not quite as bad for Quayle as in OTL with Bentsen).  But it is another question that ruins the whole debate for Quayle.  Asked about helping to protect rights for the LGBT community, Quayle says, "I don't associate with those people.  They're dirty.  Just look at AIDS."  Realizing what has slipped out of his mouth, Quayle attempts to correct himself, but it is no use.  Polls show the Quayle's comment is highly disapproved of, and Tsongas wins the debate 75-25.

The finals polls after the debate and before the election show the following:
Tsongas/Sinner: 57%
Quayle/Hunt: 40%
Other/Undecided: 3%

However, as election results come in, it appears as though the election will be much closer than originally thought.  Tsongas' supporters, who believe victory is the only possible outcome, have very low turnout.  Meanwhile, social conservatives turn out for Quayle in big numbers.  While Tsongas was expected to get upwards of 400 electoral votes, he sees his numbers rapidly decline during election night, though he still does very well in the midwest.  The biggest state shocker of the night is Quayle's victory in New Jersey, a state where he was losing in the polls by 10-15%.  To further complicate matters, former Republican Congressman Ron Paul runs as the Libertarian candidate, which causes a few states (KS and ND) to go to Tsongas.  In the end, Tsongas achieves a large victory, though not as big as expected:

()
Tsongas/Sinner: 47,675,968 votes (52.05%), 368 electoral votes
Quayle/Hunt: 43,020,205 votes (46.97%), 170 electoral votes
Paul/Marrou: 431,750 votes (0.47%), 0 electoral votes
Others: 466,863 (0.51%), 0 electoral votes

In the Congressional elections, with many Democrats tied to Gore, Republicans gain back the Senate and come closer to a majority in the House:

House:
Democrats: 240 (-19)
Republicans: 195 (+19)

Senate:
Republicans: 52 (+5)
Democrats: 48 (-5)

An updated list:

Presidents:

Lyndon Johnson (D): November 22, 1963 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Goldwater (R) in 1964
Edward Kennedy (D): January 20, 1969 - January 20, 1977
     defeated Rockefeller (R) and Wallace (AI) in 1968
     defeated Howard Baker (R) in 1972
George H.W. Bush (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Pryor (D) in 1976
     assassinated on October 4, 1978
Robert Dole (R): October 4, 1978 - October 14, 1978
     assassinated on October 14, 1978
Gerald Ford (R): October 14, 1978 - January 20, 1985
     defeated Nunn (D) in 1980
Paul Tsongas (D): January 20, 1985 - July 12, 1987
     defeated Stevens (R) in 1984
     resigned due to sickness on July 12, 1987
Al Gore (D): July 12, 1987 - January 20, 1989
     Acting President from May 19, 1987 - July 12, 1987
Paul Tsongas (D): January 20, 1989 - ?
     Defeated Quayle (R) in 1988

Vice Presidents:

Vacant: Novebmer 22, 1963 - January 20, 1965
Hubert H. Humphrey (D): January 20, 1965 - January 20, 1969
     defeated Miller (R) in 1964
George McGovern (D): January 20, 1969 - October 11, 1974
     defeated Evans (R) and LeMay (AI) in 1968
     defeated Percy (R) in 1972
     resigned on October 11, 1974
Vacant: October 11, 1974 - January 30, 1975
David Pryor (D): January 30, 1975 - January 20, 1977
Bob Dole (R): January 20, 1977 - October 4, 1978
     defeated Carter (D) in 1976
     resigned on October 4, 1978 to become President
Vacant: October 4, 1978 - November 15, 1978
Jacob Javits (R): November 15, 1978 - January 20, 1981
John Lindsay (R): January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1985
     defeated James (D) in 1980
Al Gore (D): January 20, 1985 - July 12, 1987
     defeated Danforth (R) in 1984
     resigned to become President on July 12, 1987
Vacant: July 12, 1987 - September 25, 1987
Bob Casey (D): September 25, 1987 - January 20, 1989
George Sinner (D): January 20, 1989 - ?
     defeated Hunt (R) in 1988

Isn't Bob Dole supposed to be dead?

Oh sh**t!  I completely forgot about that.  I haven't been following my own story in a while.  I'll replace him in a minute.  Sorry about that.

By 1990, the economy is doing slightly better, at least in the midwest.  However, after eight years of the Democrats, people are simply tired with the party, enabling the Republicans to make moderate gains in the midterm elections:

House:
Democrats: 231 (-9)
Republicans: 204 (+9)

Senate:
Republicans: 54(+2)
Democrats: 46 (-2)

Because Tsongas is barred from seeking another term, the Democratic nomination is seen as wide open.  Vice President Sinner, whose name recognition is still only about 60%, has expressed little interest in running, believing he cannot win the nomination.

Other candidates include Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, MA Governor Michael Dukakis, and Iowa Senator Tom Harkin.

In the Iowa caucus on February 10th, Harkin wins easily with the other candidates not campaigning:
Harkin: 66%
Dukakis: 8%
Uncommitted: 8%
Clinton: 6%
Sinner (Write-in): 5%
Others: 7%

Sinner contemplates getting into the race, but ultimately decides against it.

On February 18th, in New Hampshire, Dukakis is able to win his home state.  Polls show Governor Clinton taking second, but a sex scandal breaks the day before the primary, and Clinton is not able to recover:
Dukakis: 41%
Harkin: 38%
Clinton: 8%
Sinner (Write-in): 7%
Others: 6%

Harkin is able to recover on February 25th and win South Dakota:
Harkin: 45%
Dukakis: 34%
Sinner (Write-in): 12%
Clinton: 4%
Others: 5%

Clinton drops out.  Sinner tells his supporters that if his write-in campaign place second in any primary, he will get into the race.

On March 3rd, a number of states hold primaries/caucuses:

Colorado:
Dukakis: 48%
Harkin: 42%
Sinner (Write-in): 8%
Others: 2%

Georgia:
Dukakis: 50%
Harkin: 40%
Sinner (Write-in): 3%
Others: 7%

Maryland:
Dukakis: 55%
Harkin: 40%
Sinner (Write-in): 1%
Others: 4%

Idaho:
Harkin: 56%
Dukakis: 28%
Sinner (Write-in): 11%
Others: 5%

Minnesota:
Harkin: 49%
Dukakis: 30%
Sinner (Write-in): 15%
Others: 6%

Not placing second in even Minnesota, Sinner disavows any write-in campaign.

South Carolina on March 7th is extremely close, with Harkin just barely pulling a victory:
Harkin: 47%
Dukakis: 46%
Others: 7%

Next up: Super Tuesday

On Super Tuesday, Harkin wins more primaries than Dukakis, but the race is still up for grabs.

A map after the Super Tuesday primaries:

()
Harkin: 11 states
Dukakis: 9 states

Illinois and Michigan on March 17th produce mixed results:

Illinois:
Harkin: 53%
Dukakis: 43%
Others: 4%

Michigan:
Dukakis: 50%
Harkin: 48%
Others: 2%

Connecticut on March 24th is an easy win for Dukakis:
Dukakis: 61%
Harkin: 36%
Others: 3%

On April 7th, Kansas, New York, and Wisconsin all hold primaries, with Dukakis winning New York and Harkin winning the others.

Harkin then goes on to win Pennsylvania on April 28th:
Harkin: 55%
Dukakis: 43%
Others: 2%

On May 5th, Dukakis wins DC, while Harkin wins Indiana and North Carolina.

Nebraska votes for Harkin on May 12th, while WV votes Dukakis.

The rest of the primaries are pretty evenly fought, with no clear winner going into the convention.  Here is a final map of the Democratic primaries:

()
Harkin: 26 states
Dukakis: 25 states

Going into the convention, it is clear that the Super Delegates will determine the winner:
Dukakis: 431
Harkin: 422
Uncommitted: 147

On the first ballot, Harkin is able ot claim victory, by an extremely close margin:
Harkin: 512
Dukakis: 481
Others: 7

Harkin chooses MO Rep. Gephardt for VP, who is nomianted by acclamation.

For the Republicans running in 1992, here are the candidates:

Governor Pete Wilson of California
Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Govenor Carroll A. Campbell Jr. of South Carolina
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas

Going into Iowa, Campbell is the favorite, due to his conservative credentials and aiding the rise of South Carolina Republican party.  Most polls show Campbell at about 30%, with all the others at about 10%.

However, one week before Iowa, Wilson receives two key endorsements.  First, Thompson (whose poll numbers have dropped to about 7-8%), decides to drop out.  He is not expected to make an endorsement, but Wilson is able to gather his support.  Then, Wilson meets with Governor Terry Branstad of Iowa.  Making a very large promise of the VP candidacy to Branstad, Wilson is able to achieve the endosement of the Governor.  The last polls before Iowa still show Campbell leading, although only about 35-20 over Wilson.

The results on February 10th are a huge surprise.  Although Wilson still comes in second, his numbers jump to over 30%, nearly giving him victory:
Campbell: 33%
Wilson: 31%
Gramm: 17%
Uncommitted: 12%
Others: 7%

Going into New Hampshire, Wilson clearly has the momentum.  In New Hampshire on Febuary 18th, Wilson is able to claim victory, partly because of momentum and party because of the ideology of NH Republicans:
Wilson: 44%
Campbell: 35%
Gramm: 17%
Others: 4%

Gramm drops out, making no endorsement at this point.

South Dakota on February 25th is very close, but Wilson barely claims victory:
Wilson: 47%
Campbell: 46%
Others: 7%

March 3rd has five primaries/caucuses, with the following results:

Colorado:
Wilson: 52%
Campbell: 46%
Others: 2%

Georgia:
Campbell: 59%
Wilson: 36%
Others: 5%

Maryland:
Wilson: 55%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 2%

Minnesota:
Wilson: 58%
Campbell: 38%
Others: 4%

Idaho:
Wilson: 53%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 4%

Wilson's surprise victory in Idaho makes him the definite frontrunner, but Campbell vows to carry on at least until Super Tuesday.

South Carolina on March 7th is an uncontested win for Campbell
Campbell: 82%
Wilson: 15%
Others: 3%

Here are the results after Super Tuesday:

()
Wilson: 12 states
Campbell: 8 states

Campbell does moderately well on Super Tuesday, but on March 17th, he loses both primaries by considerable margins:

Illinois:
Wilson: 56%
Campbell: 40%
Others: 4%

Michigan:
Wilson: 51%
Campbell: 43%
Others: 6%

Connecticut on March 24th is basically uncontested:
Wilson: 67%
Campbell: 30%
Others: 3%

Campbell's loss of New York and Wisconsin on April 7th really hurt him:

Kansas:
Campbell: 49%
Wilson: 46%
Others: 5%

New York:
Wilson: 60%
Campbell: 38%
Others: 2%

Wisonsin:
Wilson: 57%
Campbell: 42%
Others: 1%

Campbell essentially concedes defeat for the rest of the campaign, but continues to keep his name on the ballots in hopes of getting the VP nod by forcing Wilson's hand at the convention.

Final map:
()
Wilson: 35 states
Campbell: 16 states

Wilson wins on the first ballot:
Wilson: 764
Campbell: 200
Others: 36

True to his word, Wilson nominates Branstad for VP, who is nomianted by acclamation.

This wasn't a bad timeline you had here True Democrat. If only it could be updated once more, however I highly doubt it myself.

Who did you have in mind to win the 1992 Presidential Election between Pete Wilson and Tom Harkin? At the time and now I still think that Wilson would win the Presidency.