Talk Elections

While taking a look at the latest round of SurveyUSA polling, I noticed that there's some very interesting data buried in the crosstabs: a scientific gauge of the public's opinion on the issues of abortion and gay marriage.  The abortion crosstab isn't new, but the gay marriage one is.

Since gay marriage is a bit of a hot topic this past week with Massachusetts denying the "traditional marriage" crowd a statewide vote, I thought it'd be interesting to see where opinion is, state by state.

Unfortunately, the data is only available for those states with an affiliate that has a running contract with SurveyUSA.

"Support Same Sex Marriage?" (6/18/07)
ALABAMA  17%/78%  (+/- 3.9%)
CALIFORNIA  44%/48% (+/- 4.1%)
IOWA  35%/56% (+/- 4.1%)
KANSAS  33%/58% (+/- 3.9%)
KENTUCKY  23%/72% (+/- 4%)
MASSACHUSETTS  50%/43% (+/- 4.1%)
MINNESOTA  37%/55% (+/- 4.1%)
MISSOURI  31%/62% (+/- 4.1%)
NEW MEXICO  35%/59% (+/- 3.8%)
NEW YORK  43%/49% (+/- 4.1%)
OHIO  32%/60% (+/- 4%)
OREGON  41%/54% (+/- 4.1%)
TEXAS  27%/66% (+/- 4.1%)
VIRGINIA  31%/64%  (+/- 4%)
WASHINGTON  44%/49%  (+/- 4.1%)
WISCONSIN  35%/57% (+/- 4.1%)

[Trivia question for some bonus points: How many of the above 16 states have pro-life pluralities?  You may be surprised at the answer.]

That's not entirely new (they've been doing it with approval polling), but certainly interesting.  None of the results are all that weird, though.  The results tend to veer around every month.  I remember in past polls, gay marriage was down in MA.

I do like how Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani turns out nearly the same as gay marriage here...weird poll result this time around.

That's easy. None. It always is.

Edit: Looked it up, and Alabama and Kentucky do actually have pro-life pluralities. Texas does, too, but within the MoE.

I wonder if it would help the gay marriage issue to have it come up for an election vote in Massachusetts, so that the Republicans are stuck whining about "activist voters".

Around here I haven't seen that much talk about "activist judges" recently.  The local gay-marraige opponents (it's not that partisan here, I believe the state GOP has not taken a stance at all on gay marraige, because there is conflict among the local Republicans.  The 4 Catholic bishops in the state have all come out strongly against gay marraige, however) have taken to complaining that the legislature is "anti-democratic" because they voted down having the gay marraige ballot question.  One of their major slogans was "Let the People Vote", and they stopped writing letters to the newspaper denouncing homosexuality, but rather tried to portray their movement as the defenders of democracy against the legislature.

It's not surprising that MA is the only state supporting gay marraige (I believe Rasmussen had VT tied at 49s last year).  We need to pass these bans fast before people start thinking gay marriage is the "cool" thing to do

Marriage should not be a political issue, it's a religious issue! The State should not issue a license to marry, it should be up to a couple to find a Church to perform the ceremony, and it's between the couple if they decide to split-up or stay together. The only reason that marriage is a State issue, is for taxing purposes. We need to get the government out of every decision that people make.

I'm just waiting on the day when I must register my shoes with the government, after all; it's for my own safety, right(?).

BTW, are there going to be any referenda on gay rights/marriage in November 2008?

Again, gay activists have done a great job of making people they will be labeled homophobic

Actually, 'homophobic' is a term used primarily by and generally chosen to describe someone by the mainstream media. Most 'gay rights' activists prefer the term heterocentric or, for more extreme cases, non-hetero intolerant. Personally, I think both these terms, especially the latter, are a bit weak, but still, homophobic is on the way out.

What else is opposition to gay marriage but homophobia? I mean, really, there's no logic other than "God hates fags." (Sorry, Fred Phelps, to steal your trademark.)

You wearing that yellow avatar is an insult to libertarians everywhere.

New York is going to be the first state to pass gay marriages and have the bill signed.

It passed the House today, and will probably pass the Senate sometime in the next term or two. Governor Sptizer also openly supports gay marriage.

Massachusetts is a clear case that once a place legalizes SSM, the people will eventually support it. I am guessing that when it was first legalized, most opposed it- or at least it was closer. Same thing here. Peoples' opinions have dramatically shifted since before and after legalizing SSM. Once people realize how harmless it really is, they accept it.

Indeed you'd be correct.

In fact, I'd argue that the surge in support is totally a consequence of gay marriage becoming "cool," and enticing soccer moms by the truckload to embrace a new gay lifestyle choice and get one of those "gay marriages" they keep hearing about on Oprah.

The thing is, DWTL could have posted this seriously.

The New York State Senate is Republican-controlled. Are they seriously going to pass a gay marriage bill?

Depends. The State Senate Democrats + Republicans from socially liberal areas could be just enough...

real question is, would the state senate leadership allow such a bill to get to that point...

Bruno is likely to block it.  What happens after the 08 election is another story, the GOP has a slim majority in the state senate.

I remember seeing polls that showed those in Rhode Island and New Jersey also support Gay Marriage

That´s about where Austria´s public opinion on this issue is and the public is steadily getting more liberal on this issue.

For example, according to the latest poll, 70% of younger Austrians (younger than 30 years) support gay marriage.

I suppose in 20 years 60-70% of Austrians will be in favor of gay marriage.

Simply put: We just need a 4-year Social-Dem-Green coalition to implement it, but unfortunately Austrians were not willingly to vote them above 50% so far ...

I would because the main reason for support of gay marriage stems from fear of being labeled homophobic and wanting to fit in

And if so few people support gay marraige because they think it's a good idea, who is everyone else trying to "fit in" with?

The number of support is probably something like 30%, and those people do a good job of convincing others they will labeled as homophobic for not supporting it.  It reminds me of a Family Guy quote, "Anyone who doesn't want to go to war is gay!"

If by "homophobia" you mean people who are afraid of gays, then yes, this particular gay marriage supporter believes a majority of those opposed to gay marriage do so because of a(n) (irrational) fear of gays and the (non) consequences of gay marriage.

They seem to firmly believe (ridiculously) that their own marriage will somehow be threatened by gay marriage, that the divorce rate will increase (though gay marriage has ironically sent the divorce rate in MA sharply lower), or will cause their four-year-old son Timmy to come out of the closet because he saw two men kissing once on the TeeVee.  (Yuh huh.)

Most people support gay marriage because (1) they have a gay/lesbian family member, friend, or co-worker, (2) its the right thing to do from a civil rights stand point, and (3) there are absolutely no perceived negative consquences for most sane, logical people in allowing gays to marry (save, perhaps, for an overpowering fear of the wrath of God).

No, that's why I said it will probably happen in the next term or two when the Democrats take the State Senate.

It will certainly happen in the next 4-8 years.

Applause.

no, thats not it at all. It should be passed because it is the right thing to do.

As opposed to the fear of being labeled a homosexual by some people on the right?  There's a flipside to everything.

I personally couldn't care less if no one but me supported it.  I support gay marriage because it's the right thing to do, and it's a shame that people are denied a chance for equality, not because it's "cool."

Which, by the way, it still isn't.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

pWn3d.

Yeah, gay marriage is reaaaalll cool.