Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: rockhound on July 20, 2004, 07:51:48 PM



Title: State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: rockhound on July 20, 2004, 07:51:48 PM
Everyone always talks about the times (like 2000) when the winner of the popular vote did not win the election.

But since the Electoral college is a by-product of the Conecticut compromise, we should be just as interested in the times that the winner of the majority of states did not get elected president.   In 1976, for example, Ford carried 54% of the states but lost the election.   Had the the union been formed more like the UN, he would have been the winner.

Has anyone counted up the times the state winner lost the election?


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: Lunar on July 20, 2004, 08:17:23 PM
What it takes is a close election with the "city candidate" winning, since the candidate who wins the rural areas will win more states in that type of scenario.

We've had only a few close elections this last century.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: nclib on July 20, 2004, 08:36:35 PM
In addition to 1976, I think Nixon won more states in 1960.

It would be very difficult for a Democrat to win the majority of states anytime soon, especially without a strong third-party candidate (as in '92/'96).


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: rockhound on July 21, 2004, 11:56:32 AM
By the way, welcome to the forum, rockhound!

Thank-you, glad I found it.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: PBrunsel on July 21, 2004, 01:18:23 PM
Nixon in 1960 is a good one.

I think he won 5 to 10 more states than Kennedy.



Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: Keystone Phil on July 21, 2004, 01:21:23 PM
Welcome Rockhound. Good to see another Pennsylvanian in the forum.

In 1976 I believe Ford won more states than Carter.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: rockhound on July 21, 2004, 02:40:59 PM
Ok, here's the unofficial tally:

1976
Carter won with 23 states to Fords 27

1960
Kennedy won with 22 states to Nixon's 26 (Miss and Ala went elsewhere)

In both 1880 and 1884, the winner (Garfield and Taylor, respectively, tied for the most states with the runner up).

In 1800 and prior, electors were splitting their state votes so it gets hard to tell.

So there are just 2 real instances since 1800 where the winner of the most states did not win the election.   I believe there are more times that the winner of the popular vote did not win.  So it seems that winning the most states is a surer way to the White House, than winning the popular vote!

Note, also that never has anyone won while losing both the popular vote and the state count, though Garfield tying in states, and winning the popular vote by just .02% came close.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: JohnFKennedy on July 21, 2004, 02:54:42 PM
I believe Benjamin Harrison lost the popular vote but won the electoral vote against Grover Cleveland when Harrison won the election.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: PBrunsel on July 22, 2004, 02:40:21 PM
Years where the popular vote winner lost:

1824

1876

1888

2000


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: minionofmidas on July 23, 2004, 06:50:13 AM
Years where the popular vote winner lost:

1824

1876

1888

2000
Although, again, 1824 is not a good example as the popular vote winner did win the electoral vote as well - he just fell short of 50% of EV's, then lost in the House.


Title: Re: State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: Adlai Stevenson on July 16, 2007, 09:38:34 AM
In 2008 if a Democratic President is elected it seems unlikely they will win a majority of states.  John Kerry could have won with just 21?, if he had carried Ohio in 2004.  I think the Democratic nominee in 2008 will carry more states than Kerry, but will fail to carry perhaps even half of the 50 states. 


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: jimrtex on July 18, 2007, 04:46:27 AM
Years where the popular vote winner lost:

1824

1876

1888

2000

1960


Title: Re: State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: AndrewTX on July 18, 2007, 10:13:51 AM
I don't really feel like counting it myself (lazy tonight), but what would be the minimum amount of states someone could win with?

14 states.

CA, TX, FL, OH, PA, IL, NY, WI, NJ, NY, MA, VA, MD, NC.

I'm sure it can be compiled differently, but I think 14 states, maybe 13 if I added wrong.


Title: Re:State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: 12th Doctor on July 19, 2007, 11:51:47 AM
But, Kennedy got the votes where he needed them, in big states such as Texas, Illinois, and Michigan.

He stole the votes where he needed them.


Title: Re: State winner not the Overall Winner
Post by: Nym90 on July 19, 2007, 12:23:06 PM
But, Kennedy got the votes where he needed them, in big states such as Texas, Illinois, and Michigan.

He stole the votes where he needed them.

Was politics corrupt in 1960? Sure. Always has been, probably always will be to a certain extent. Both sides did it then, and still do today. It's equally deplorable from either party.

But you are too smart to get into those conspiracy theories about stolen elections.