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Title: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 24, 2007, 09:41:10 PM It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination.
Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right. She is polling well. She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats. Barack Obama is not catching on. The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term. Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term. Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much. The John Edwards campaign is coming apart. His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public. He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor. Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so. Al Gore will not be running. He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that. He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy. Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome. Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates. Thoughts? Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Alcon on July 24, 2007, 09:48:21 PM It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination. I disagree... Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right. Agreed, there. She is polling well. She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats. She is polling well, but not great. Here's a secret: most mainstraem Democrats are well-liked and admired by rank-and-file Democrats. Primary voters, unless they have a litmus test issue, tend to be pumped about anyone they think may be the eventual nominee. Most liked John Kerry well too. Barack Obama is not catching on. The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term. Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term. Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much. It's really too early to concern ourselves with momentum all that much. But I disagree that the electorate will refuse to elect Obama on the basis of him being a first-term senator. They elected George W. Bush, a politician who came from a similarly nothing background. One-line attacks rarely work alone. Obama is solid elsewhere, and the Republican will probably face a problem at least of equal force to Obama's lack of experience -- being a Republican in 2008. The John Edwards campaign is coming apart. His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public. He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor. Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so. As much as the public does love a good soundbite, and as much as I doubt he will get the nod, what exactly does the U.S. expect from their politicians at this point? Bush ain't no rural rancher. Al Gore will not be running. He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that. He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy. No major disagreement. Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome. Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere. I think Richardson deserves to be separated from Biden and Dodd, but I fundamentally agree. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates. Agreed. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Gabu on July 24, 2007, 10:12:12 PM Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections. There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 24, 2007, 11:20:32 PM Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections. There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics. That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Eleden on July 24, 2007, 11:28:16 PM Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections. There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics. That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. Perhaps, however if you look at history the Democratic frontrunner this early out rarely wins... unless of course he's the sitting VP. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: bonncaruso on July 25, 2007, 03:27:42 AM That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. [/quote] Indeed. The groundswell for a blue revoloution has just begun. I predict the biggest landslide since 1964. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Eleden on July 25, 2007, 04:53:31 AM Not with Hillary as the nominee.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 25, 2007, 03:03:24 PM That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. Indeed. The groundswell for a blue revoloution has just begun. I predict the biggest landslide since 1964. [/quote] Thank you for your comment, and welcome to the forum. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Trilobyte on July 25, 2007, 05:07:03 PM In the summer of 2003, Howard Dean was only beginning his surge to the front of the pack. We are seeing the same kind of hype right now with Obama and his fundraising. Obama's momentum is quietly building like Dean's and he will surge once he pours money into massive advertising.
If Obama fails to break out by the end of the third quarter, then I'd agree Clinton has the nomination locked up. But until then Clinton has to look out for that Dean-like surge because she can't count on Obama to blow it in the end like Dean did. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2007, 09:24:03 PM Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections. There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics. That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. You should read my generic predictions: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54364.0 During every single election cycle, there are people who make bold predictions, and then when critics point out past elections when everyone's predictions turned out wrong, the predictor will respond by saying "Yeah, but this time is different." Every single time, there are people who say that. But the incorrect predictions keep on coming. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on July 25, 2007, 09:25:30 PM ()
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Lincoln Republican on July 25, 2007, 09:57:11 PM Given that the primaries are over half a year away, I might bring your attention to predictions that other people made this far out before the 2006 elections. There is no such thing as a "lock" in politics. That may be true, and you make a very valid point, however, I have a strong feeling that this Democratic race is different from any in history. I believe it will be over before too long into the process. You should read my generic predictions: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54364.0 During every single election cycle, there are people who make bold predictions, and then when critics point out past elections when everyone's predictions turned out wrong, the predictor will respond by saying "Yeah, but this time is different." Every single time, there are people who say that. But the incorrect predictions keep on coming. Thank you. Excellent post. My prediction is that Hillary Clinton will wrap up the nomination early on in the process. I believe circumstances for the Democrats in 2008 are quite unique from previous campaigns. If I am wrong, I will simply say I was wrong, clear and simple, no ifs, ands, or buts, no excuses. Of course incorrect predictions will keep on coming. There is nothing wrong in making predictions, at whatever stage, as long as the one making the prediction is willing to accept responsibility for their own incorrect prediction, if it is incorrect, without making any excuses. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on July 25, 2007, 11:20:23 PM I will say this much- Democratic campaigns are taking on the look and feel of Republican campaings and vice versa.
Democrats have become well-funded and unified while the GOP has become divided and poorly funded. Like I said, if the democrats don't pull it off (even with Hillary(If divisivie W can do it, so can Hillary-just be perpared for the obnoxious complaining afterwards)), I would not see how the Democratic Party would be justified anymore. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Nym90 on July 26, 2007, 12:14:32 AM Clinton is certainly the frontrunner, but the race is far from over. There's still a long ways to go.
I agree, though, that Clinton has the combination of money and experience that no other candidate has. She's well-spoken and articulate, and relatively moderate on most issues. I still think that Edwards and Richardson would both be stronger candidates (and probably better Presidents), and Obama certainly will put up a strong fight, but in the end Clinton will likely win the nomination unless she does or says something stupid. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on July 30, 2007, 06:18:55 PM Although at this point, it is probably time for the dems to unite while the GOP have their divisive primary.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Eraserhead on July 30, 2007, 10:14:18 PM Clinton does not have a lock. I still think Obama will win in the end.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Eraserhead on July 30, 2007, 11:33:26 PM Clinton does not have a lock. I still think Obama will win in the end. Well I wasn't the guy going around saying Rick Perry was going to lose and that the MS Senate race would be competetive. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: senor on July 31, 2007, 09:27:28 AM Hello! What makes me (a little) angry is that the press and the media have already crowned front runners in this race, and the race is 6 months away. Why Hillary? Why not Biden or Dodd? I like Joe Biden and honestly would think he would make a fine President. He seems to be highly intellegent and knowledgable, has tons of experience, and seems to me to be a genuine, decent person. Dodd also seems to be a good candidate. Edwards is too liberal! Poverty cannot be changed, and all I hear from him is the government can do this, and the government can do that nonsense. He wants to create another Great Society, not realizing that the original one has fallen on his own weight. Edwards was a one term ex senator because the people of his state would not re-elect him. I don't fault him on his money, he did grow up poor, went to redneck schools and made what he made of himself. But I don't trust the judgement of a man who pays $400 bucks for a $20 Supercuts. Kucinich has wanted to be President since he was a kid. Not happening. I would love to see him become a U.S. Senator. He's actually a good spokesman for the left. He is always happy and optimistic. Unfortunately he looks like a horse jocky. I don't understand why Gravel is in the race, but he's a lot of fun nonetheless. Title: ! Post by: motomonkey on July 31, 2007, 01:00:33 PM A "lock?" I think not. We are SOOO early. We haven't had a scandal (Hart, Clinton), we haven't had a self-destructive meltdown (Dean), we haven't had tears (Muskie), we haven't had a huge unexpected drop out (Johnson), we haven't had an assassination or even an attempt (Kennedy).
If you really look at history, it is difficult to think that anything is locked this early. Add to that we are a polarzied nation, we have a really serious African American and woman leading the race and we are at war! Get some popcorn, it's gonna be a show! Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on July 31, 2007, 02:52:59 PM ...we've had an assisantation attempt.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Gabu on July 31, 2007, 09:50:52 PM ...we've had an assisantation attempt. In the 2008 race? Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on July 31, 2007, 10:18:39 PM I think there was one in January on Hillary. There was a whole thing on Obama getting secret service.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Gustaf on August 01, 2007, 10:26:24 AM Clinton does not have a lock. I still think Obama will win in the end. Well I wasn't the guy going around saying Rick Perry was going to lose and that the MS Senate race would be competetive. However, in the early days of the race, I was adamant that Perry would come in second, while most people on the forum thought he would come in fourth, and in the single digits. So I actually nailed the TX race better than most people. As for MS...<shrugs> I guess I just convinced myself that maybe Fleming could make a run for it. Fleming could've broken 40%, if he had, ya know, positive cash on hand at any point during the race. Who said that? I know I didn't and I can't remember anyone else predicting it either (besides maybe Vlad, but he was also a crazy optimist). I still hold Hillary as the favourite but with the money race more or less even Obama is definitely in the race. Edwards has a sliver of a chance, but it all hinges on him winning Iowa. If he can pull that off he's in the race, otherwise he's dead. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: gogmagog on August 02, 2007, 12:08:14 PM I have to say somthing, And i know i'm not objective:
I feel like at first Clinton was the frontrunner becouse of name recognision but now she is simply consider to be, by most voters, as the best and strongest nominee. She is much better in political games than her rivels and she already fought and won the right propoganda machine so i don't think she is going to make huge mistakes till 1/08. So how and why Obama could win? Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on August 02, 2007, 12:45:18 PM Unless she pursues Obama into the marsh and is not heard from again, like many frontrunners usually do. It's either Edwards or Clinton. Obama seems to be weak and though I really like Richardson, don't think he could do it.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on August 02, 2007, 04:36:33 PM Hillary Clinton dosen't have a "lock" on the Democratic Nomination so far. Even though some polls are suggesting she's way out in front of Barack Obama & John Edwards, she'll have to wait until she's won Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina first to have a lock.
Hopefully Hillary Clinton, dosen't end up being the Democrat's nominee in 2008, because it will end up backfiring and the Republicans will keep the keys to the White House. I really hope, someone like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson gets the nomination, but I doubt this will occur because Hillary will shoot their candidacy's down in the blaze of glory. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on August 02, 2007, 10:43:33 PM Hillary Clinton dosen't have a "lock" on the Democratic Nomination so far. Even though some polls are suggesting she's way out in front of Barack Obama & John Edwards, she'll have to wait until she's won Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada & South Carolina first to have a lock. Hopefully Hillary Clinton, dosen't end up being the Democrat's nominee in 2008, because it will end up backfiring and the Republicans will keep the keys to the White House. I really hope, someone like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson gets the nomination, but I doubt this will occur because Hillary will shoot their candidacy's down in the blaze of glory. What I am hoping is that she would defeat herself fighting the alternatives or comes out unscathed, proving herself to be the shadow president, much like Bush did. In fact, everyone had as hunch that Bush would be president since time in the 2000 election cycle....people are begining to have that hunch about Clinton. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: YRABNNRM on August 03, 2007, 01:53:51 PM I fully expect Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, but then again I fully expected Dean to be the Democratic nominee as well. Either way, Clinton is much stronger than Dean ever was; whether that constitutes a "lock", I don't know.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Boris on August 03, 2007, 02:03:36 PM Rasmussen has an interesting analysis (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary) of the Democratic Nomination:
Quote In last week’s Democratic Presidential Debate, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama took different approaches when responding to a question about meeting with the heads of rogue nations. The differences gave pundits something to talk about and the campaigns something to spin. Polling by Rasmussen Reports gave both campaigns something to work with—most Democrats tended to agree with Obama while a plurality of voters leaned more in Clinton’s direction. Even though most Democrats leaned in Obama’s direction on the one question, 46% of Democrats name Clinton as the candidate they trust most on national security issues. Just 19% named Obama. Clinton’s numbers are so strong among Democrats that she outpolled Rudy Giuliani on the national security question among all voters. So, when all is said and done, what was the impact of the debate dispute on the Democratic race? There wasn’t any. Nothing happened. All the digs and commentary and spin and punditry produced absolutely no substantive change in the dynamic of the race. Clinton remains well out in front, Obama is a distant second, and former Senator John Edwards is an even more distant third struggling for a way to re-enter the top-tier. Clinton has continued to solidify her lead as she has been doing for months (review long-term trends with the Rasmussen Reports weekly polling update or more immediate reaction with our daily tracking poll). This news cycle is a pattern that we are likely to see repeated many times in the coming weeks and months. Some event or comment will spark a dust-up between the Clinton and Obama campaigns followed by a flash storm of comments and coverage. Then, the tracking polls will look as if nothing ever happened. That’s because New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the default candidate option for the Democratic Party. She is by far the most well-known person running for President and has been an extraordinarily high profile national figure for fifteen years. Some of next year’s voters were in pre-school when Clinton first moved into the White House as First Lady. In recent history, only Richard Nixon was as well-known nationally during his run for the White House. Nobody else even comes close. The fact that Clinton is so well-known means that there are few surprises. People have opinions about her, many of them strong. Some love her and some hate her. Her favorables have been close to the 50-50 mark all year. The number who would definitely vote for her in a general election has stayed between 28% and 30%. The number who would definitely vote against has stayed between 46% and 48%. Both figures are the highest or nearly the highest for any candidate in either party. However, while the overall public is divided in its assessment of Clinton, the former First Lady remains very popular in the party she hopes to lead. Currently, 84% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her. In this environment, a modest flap over the answer to a debate question in incapable of shifting the playing field. It is hard to imagine any new information that could fundamentally alter the public perception of Clinton. As noted last week, “only a major gaffe or startling policy pronouncement will … impact the general public’s view of the race. “ The bottom line is that the Democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton unless Barack Obama can show them a definitive reason to change their mind. To use a boxing analogy, Obama needs a knock-out punch because Clinton will win the bout on points. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Undisguised Sockpuppet on August 04, 2007, 12:14:59 PM If Clinton runs I'm writing in Arnold.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: 12th Doctor on August 05, 2007, 01:40:04 PM I just think its hallarious what lengths that Democrats went to for the last 3 years to deny that this would be the case.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Jeff from NC on August 05, 2007, 09:16:37 PM I was one of those deniers, but then I wasn't expecting to be so impressed with Clinton's gravitas. In the debates that I have seen, she always seems like she knows what she's talking about. I'm not yet sold on nominating her, but that is purely on cynical grounds. I'd hate to see us throw away this election; but I'd love to see Clinton as president.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: agcatter on August 06, 2007, 09:42:22 PM Obama has to be concerned. it's early but Hillary has solidified her position without doubt. One thing neither candidate is worried about is Edwards - a non factorexcept with the Kos wingnuts.
Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Person Man on August 07, 2007, 12:35:49 PM I was one of those deniers, but then I wasn't expecting to be so impressed with Clinton's gravitas. In the debates that I have seen, she always seems like she knows what she's talking about. I'm not yet sold on nominating her, but that is purely on cynical grounds. I'd hate to see us throw away this election; but I'd love to see Clinton as president. Yeah. That's what I am thinking. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: gorkay on August 15, 2007, 05:47:34 PM I wouldn't say anyone has a lock since no one has even voted yet, but she's definitely way ahead. Only two of her competitors, Obama and Edwards, have a chance to catch her, and their campaigns have both gone backwards, while Clinton has improved her standing. So I don't know who's going to catch her. There are some other good candidates, but they have absolutely no chance, especially with the front-loaded nomination process (which increases Hillary's chance of stampeding to the nomination; if the same rules had applied in 2004, Dean probably would have won). The only candidate who would have a chance against her is Al Gore, and I don't think he's going to run. I think he would have gotten into the race by now if he intended to. The one thing Hillary has to watch out for is if all the anyone-but-her voters coalesce around one of the other candidates, not because they think he's a better candidate but because it's the only chance they have of stopping her. But again, the front-loading of the process will make that more difficult.
I think her chances will improve if it looks like the GOP will nominate a conservative (read Thompson). That might make some Democrats more comfortable with her, as it may lead them to believe that any Democrat will win in 2008. If the Republicans go for Giuliani or Romney, it might give the anti-Hillary Republicans more ammunition. But if she grabs the delegates before anyone else has a chance to, it won't matter. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: The Mikado on January 07, 2008, 11:29:48 AM It is becoming increasingly clear by now, even in these early days, that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic Presidential nomination. Clinton is seen as intelligent, well spoken, experienced, well versed on the issues, has instant name and face recognition, and has celebrity status in her own right. She is polling well. She is well liked and admired by rank and file Democrats. Barack Obama is not catching on. The Democrats are not about to hand over their Presidential nomination to a Senator in his first term. Frankly, the electorate, ultimately, would not hand over the Presidency to a Senator in his first term. Obama is stalled, and has no momentum or traction, and is not likely to gain much. The John Edwards campaign is coming apart. His rhetoric about inequality in America is becoming tiresome to the public. He spends hundreds of dollars on personal grooming, lives in an $8,000,000 house, and the public is increasingly wondering how he could possibly relate to the poor. Edwards is faltering and will continue to do so. Al Gore will not be running. He would be starting from too far behind, and he realizes that. He does not want to become involved in a losing candidacy. Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and Christopher Dodd are minor candidates with limited support, limited money, and will have little impact on the outcome. Their campaigns for the nomination will go newhere. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are more or less nuisance candidates. Thoughts? Well, that prediction turned out well. ;) Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Democratic Hawk on January 07, 2008, 09:56:44 PM For a moment, I thought this was a new thread :P
Dave Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Lincoln Republican on January 07, 2008, 11:10:42 PM Thank you for dragging this out from storage.
Clearly, my analysis was wrong at the time. Needless to say, I have had to rethink my position in this case. It has become clear now that the race for the Democtratic nomination is now a two person race, Obama and Clinton. I do not believe that Edwards has the staying power or the money to continue in the long term. Title: Re: It's Early Days But Clinton Has A Lock On The Dem Nomination Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 04, 2008, 12:39:00 PM Clinton does not have a lock. I still think Obama will win in the end. Wow. Right on. |