Title: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on September 30, 2007, 05:35:58 PM Disatisfied with the date-jumping and front-loading and 10-ring circus atmosphere of the current primary schedule, the DNC and RNC announce that they are scrapping the current system, and instituting a new system where voters throughout the country can focus on just two candidates. In addition, the candidates run only in a few select congressional districts so that they can concentrate on retail politics, rather than statewide or nationwide TV blitzes.
The first round consists of 5 regional primaries, 3 weeks apart. Each region consists of 87 congressional districts, but only 45 of the CDs are used for this first round. In each CD, two candidates from each party are paired up, and the voters of the CD choose between the two. The candidates who fare best in these head to head matchups (ie have the best league record) will advance on to the second round. Within each region, a candidate will compete in only 9 CDs, facing a different opponent in each CD. By the luck of the draw, the Southeast Region, stretching along the coast from Maryland to Mississippi, was selected for the first ever head-to-head primaries to be held on March 4, 2008. The 45 CDs were arranged in 9 sub-regional groups of 5 CDs: Maryland(4)-Northern Virginia(1) Virginia(5) North Carolina(5) South Carolina(3)-SW North Carolina(2) Georgia(5) NE Florida (Jacksonville, Orlando,etc )(5) S Florida (Miami, etc.)(5) WC Florida (Tampa, etc.)(4)-South Alabama(1) Alabama(3)-Mississippi(2) Each candidate will compete in one CD within each group, with their opponent and CD drawn by lot. Prior to the primary, each CD will host a head-to-head debate between its two candidates. The debate schedule is arranged so that the candidates can travel across the region prior to election day, arranging additional campaign activities in the CDs that they are competing. The debate order of the sub-regions was chosen by lot as well, with the initial debates occuring on Feb 15 in 4 CDs in NE Florida and CD 2 in SE Georgia. From there, they head northward through Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Maryland. They then jump to Alabama and Mississippi, followed by 4 CDs in the Tampa area plus CD 1 in SW Alabama, and finishing up on March 2 in South Florida. Please check your CSPAN and local PBS listings for times in your area. The sites of each debate are tentative. The debate schedule and head-to-head matchups for the 1st Round Southeast regional primary:
The second regional primary will be the West Regional Primary on March 25, 2008. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 03, 2007, 02:52:24 PM The second regional primary will be held on March 25 in the West, including the Pacific, Great Basin, and Mountain states (Arizona and New Mexico are included in the South Central region). 61% of the CDs in this region are in California.
As in the Southeast, the 45 selected CD's are arranged in 9 groups of 5: Colorado (3), Idaho (1), Montana (1) Washington (5) Alaska (1), Hawaii (1), Oregon (3) Bay Area California (5) Central California (5) Los Angeles (5) Los Angeles County (5) Southern California (5) Sierra California (2), Nevada (2), Utah (1) By luck of the draw the last group consisting of two CDs in Nevada, one in Utah, and two in California (the two California CDs border Nevada) was selected to kick off the debate schedule which begins 3 days after the March 4 primary in the Southeast. The candidates then proceed into the Mountain West (Wyoming was selected for the 3rd round), on to Washington state, then Oregon, Alaska, and Hawaii, and then proceeding for 5 debates in California proceeding from north to south. As for the Southeast primary, debate locations are tentative. Please check your CSPAN and local PBS listings for times in your area.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: Undisguised Sockpuppet on October 04, 2007, 07:30:44 PM Outlaw primaries.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 06, 2007, 01:24:55 PM The campaign moves on to the 3rd primary of the first round, on April 15 in the Northeast region that stretches from Maine southward to West Virginia and Delaware.
The 9 groups of 5 are: Maine (1), New Hampshire (1), Eastern Upstate NY (3). Vermont is skipped for the 1st round. Massachusetts (5) Connecticut (3), Rhode Island (1), Westchester NY (1) Eastern NYC (3) Western NYC (3), NE New Jersey (2) New Jersey (4), Delaware (1) Eastern Pennsylvania (5) SW Pennsylvania (3), West Virginia (2) Western NY (3), NW Pennsylvania The debates start in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Westchester County, New York, and proceed in a clockwise circle, down into New York City, across the Hudson into New Jersey, the west across Pennsylvania, including 2 CDs in West Virginia. The campaign then moves northward into Upstate New York, east across to Maine, and then finishing in Massachusetts.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: defe07 on October 06, 2007, 09:02:43 PM You know, I must say that you have some great ideas. This primary format is a good idea but I don't know how many voters would get how it works. I get it and it's simple, fair and very entertaining. For example, having a low-tier candidate campaigning in your Congressional District and this could be interesting. Until the number of Representatives increases though, I think this idea should be proposed to your Representative. Good stuff, keep it up!
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: Frodo on October 06, 2007, 09:10:44 PM It would also be a good idea to have some rotation of the regions every four years, just to avoid the jealousy of other regions when you have just one region always being the first to pick the nominee.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 07, 2007, 03:32:04 AM You know, I must say that you have some great ideas. This primary format is a good idea but I don't know how many voters would get how it works. I get it and it's simple, fair and very entertaining. For example, having a low-tier candidate campaigning in your Congressional District and this could be interesting. Until the number of Representatives increases though, I think this idea should be proposed to your Representative. Good stuff, keep it up! I think besides making possible more interesting debates, there is less of a chance for an early knockout. In the first 5 primaries over about 3 months, each candidate would only run in 45 CDs, and face another candidate in only 5 scattered around the country. For example so far the matchups for Clinton v. Obama would be: SC-1 (Charleston and coast) CA-38 (Pomona, but stretches in blobs west as far as Montbello) PA-5 (State College, but largely the rural northern part of the state). Would the voters in each district be that swayed by the earlier results? I think they would pretty much give it their own look. The results would be presented just like standing for a sports league, showing wins and losses, and perhaps percentage of votes, so it would be easy for most to understand, if they were willing to accept the concept. The schedule would probably be shown in a couple of different ways. What I have shown is the debate schedule, but the elections would be held on the same date. So you can imagine a map showing the region with the 45 CDs highlighted, and then a line drawn to a picture of the two candidates (perhaps with the two candidates appearing to be slightly turned towards each other). Or you could show the 9 CDs that each candidate will contest, and their opponent in each. The press could do profiles on each CD and how this will be the advantage to the candidates. As the debates progress through the region, each set of 5 debates would get covered. And of course the local press would do extensive coverage of "their" debate. I'm not sure of the best way to draw up the schedule of CDs. I kind of like choosing the CDs and matchups about a month before each primary, just a few days before the debates begin, but that probably isn't logistically feasible. So maybe there would be a drawing perhaps 2 months in advance. The congressman in each CD would host the debate for his party, and could choose the location; while the other party would choose their site. I could have done a better job of selecting CDs within a state. Each state received its fair share of CD. 45/87 is 51.7%, so a state with an even number of CDs, will have N/2 1st round matchups with some chance of an extra matchup. But within a state, the CDs were picked randomly. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 07, 2007, 03:42:17 AM It would also be a good idea to have some rotation of the regions every four years, just to avoid the jealousy of other regions when you have just one region always being the first to pick the nominee. Within each region, I then grouped the 45 CDs into 9 groups of 5, somewhat keeping groups within a state, and also to arrange them somewhat in a loop. The starting group and direction of loop traversal were drawn by lot. In the southest, it really didn't work to make a loop, so that there is a jump between Mississippi and Maryland. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 10, 2007, 02:21:11 AM The 4th primary on May 6 is in the South Central region stretching from Arizona to Kentucky and Tennessee, and from Missouri and Kansas to Texas and Louisiana.
The 9 subregions are: Arizona (4) and New Mexico (1) West and South Texas (5) Central Texas and DFW (5) Houston area (5) Louisiana (4) and NE Texas (1) Oklahoma (3) and Arkansas (2) Tennessee (4) and C Kentucky (1) W Kentucky (2) and E Missouri (3) W Missouri (2) and Kansas (3) The debate tour starts in E Missouri, including St. Louis and Western Kentucky and proceeds in a clockwise direction.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 17, 2007, 07:34:43 PM The 5th and final primary of the first round is May 27 in the Midwest region which stretches from Ohio to Nebraska and points north.
The 9 subregions are: S and C Ohio (5) N Ohio (5) SE Michigan (5) W and C Michigan (3) and NE Wisconsin (2) Minnesota (4) and South Dakota (1) (North Dakota will be used in Round 2). Iowa (3) and SW Wisconsin (2) Outstate Illinois (4) and Nebraska (1) Chicagoland (5) Indiana (5) The debate tour starts in Outstate Illinois, except for Edwards and Obama who begin in Lincoln, Nebraska before flying to Chicago to join the other candidates for the 2nd group of debates. The tour moves eastward into Indiana and Ohio for the next 3 debates, before heading northwest to the Detroit area. It then proceeds westward across Michigan, jumping Lake Michigan to NE Wisconsin, and on to Minnesota and South Dakota. The final debates before the primary are in Iowa and SW Wisconsin.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: muon2 on October 19, 2007, 04:54:53 PM The 5th and final primary of the first round is May 27 in the Midwest region which stretches from Ohio to Nebraska and points north. The 9 subregions are: S and C Ohio (5) N Ohio (5) SE Michigan (5) W and C Michigan (3) and NE Wisconsin (2) Minnesota (4) and South Dakota (1) (North Dakota will be used in Round 2). Iowa (3) and SW Wisconsin (2) Outstate Illinois (4) and Nebraska (1) Chicagoland (5) Indiana (5) The debate tour starts in Outstate Illinois, except for Edwards and Obama who begin in Lincoln, Nebraska before flying to Chicago to join the other candidates for the 2nd group of debates. The tour moves eastward into Indiana and Ohio for the next 3 debates, before heading northwest to the Detroit area. It then proceeds westward across Michigan, jumping Lake Michigan to NE Wisconsin, and on to Minnesota and South Dakota. The final debates before the primary are in Iowa and SW Wisconsin.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 19, 2007, 10:00:30 PM I can just imagine the furor in IL when the list comes out and it shows all four majority-minority districts in Chicago (CDs 1, 2, 4, 7) are skipped. I can imagine Jesse organizing marches already. But I really should have also done stratification within states, instead of just between states. I first created the 5 regions such that they were comprised of whole states and had 87 CDs. I then determined the number of CDs used from each state for each round. The first round used 45 CDs in each region, so Illinois had 19 * 45/87 = 9.83, or 9 CDs and a 83% chance of a 10th. As it turned out, they only got 9. I then selected the 9 Illinois CDs at random. But the first proces could have been repeated within Illinois. So we could have subgroups of: Minority-majority: 1,2,4,7 Chicagoland: 3,5,6,8,9,10,13 Chicagoland-Outstate: 11,14,15,16 Outstate: 12,17,18,19 In this case each of groups with 4 CDs should get 1.89, but they all got 2; and the group of 7 should get 3.32 but got 3. We divide the groups of 4 into two pairs geographically and pick one from each pair: CD 2, 4, 15, 16, 17, and 12 are picked and CD 1, 7, 11, 14, 18, and 19 are excluded. Then we split the Chicagoland group into a Chicago group (3,5,9) and Metro group (6,8,10,13). The Chicago group ends up with 2, and the Metro group 1. CD 3, 5, and 8 are picked CD 9, 6, 10, 13 are excluded. Working our way outward from Chicago: 2, 3, 4, and 5; 8, 15, and 16; 17 and 12. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on October 19, 2007, 10:52:02 PM We move on to the 2nd round, with the top 6 from each party advancing. Known as the Select 6, "Super 6" - USA Today, or "Sixpack" - New York Daily News the candidates will once again compete in head-to-head matchups.
There are 5 primaries in the second round, each using 30 CDs from across the country. In each primary, a candidate faces an opposing candidate from his party in 10 CDs across the country. The candidate matchups switch for each primary. For the 1st primary of the 2nd round on June 17th, the Democratic matchups are Clinton-Richardson, Dodd-Edwards, and Gore-Obama; while on the GOP side it is Giuliani-Hunter, Huckabee-McCain, and Romney-Thompson,F. As in the 1st round, the candidates hold head-to-head debates in the weeks before the election, with the GOP and Democrats alternating dates and sites withing the 5 regions. In the table for each matchup, the dates, sites, and candidates for each debate are shown; but the opposite party will also contest the corresponding CD. For example, Duncan Hunter and Rudy Giuliani will compete for votes in TX-32 in North Dallas, though their South Central debate will be held at Johnson City, Tennessee; and similarly John Edwards and Christopher Dodd will seek votes in TN-1 in far eastern Tennessee, while their debate is in Dallas. Edwards and Dodd might travel to Tennessee to campaign, and then fly down to Atlanta for their 2nd debate in the eastern suburbs. CSPAN will carry all debates, the cable news networks will carry one debate each night. Local broadcast stations may carry the debates of interest in their area on a tape delay.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on November 23, 2007, 08:02:13 PM The second round of the Select 6 primaries will be held on June 29. As in the first round, pairs of candidates from each party contest 10 CD's from across the country. In the two weeks prior to the primary, each pair hold a debate in 5 of the 10 CD's that they will contest.
The Democratic matchups are Obama-Edwards, Richardson-Gore, and Clinton-Dodd, while on the GOP side it is Thompson-Giuliani, McCain-Hunter, and Romney-Huckabee. Please note a change in site for the Georgia 2 debate on February 15. That debate has been moved to Albany, to free up Columbus for the Georgia 3 debate on June 24.
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: Frodo on January 01, 2008, 07:42:43 PM What do you all think of having rotating regional primaries (as laid out by jimrtex in this thread, but retaining Iowa and New Hampshire as the bellweather states candidates must go through before proceeding further?
Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: Verily on January 01, 2008, 10:31:24 PM What do you all think of having rotating regional primaries (as laid out by jimrtex in this thread, but retaining Iowa and New Hampshire as the bellweather states candidates must go through before proceeding further? It's like reforming the Electoral College rather than getting rid of it; it's not a compromise, it's a waste of time. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 01, 2008, 11:03:26 PM I vote Gravel over Richardson on March 17!
Seriously, though...Brownback v. Hunter in SF? Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: StateBoiler on January 02, 2008, 03:53:46 PM jimrtex, good effort, but it violates the KISS rule.
How about this idea if we have to continue with primaries not on the same day. In the preceding general election, the state with the highest turnout among the voting age population gets the right to be first primary. Think of the good points about this: -If state had high turnout, it most likely meant the state was competitive, which means both parties would be catering to voters in around a 50/50 state. -Their voters actually "care" if they were the highest turnout in the country, and so would treat with respect the primary process. Lets all remember that tomorrow, regardless of results, the overwhelming result will be the 94% of Iowans that just don't give a s***. If they don't care, why should we? -Gives a reward to state parties that GOTV. -Most likely to not be a large state for people that hate commercial big money politics. So for this time around per Dave's numbers, the first primary would be Minnesota, with a turnout of 74%. (Maine had 73%, Wisconsin 72%.) Maybe this could be modified a bit where you split the country in regions and take the highest turnout state in each region to be first. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on January 11, 2008, 01:23:50 AM I vote Gravel over Richardson on March 17! Seriously, though...Brownback v. Hunter in SF? While there might be a few oddities, over 45 matchups, the top candidates would prevail. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: jimrtex on January 11, 2008, 01:31:06 AM jimrtex, good effort, but it violates the KISS rule. In each CD, voters would only choose between the two candidates in each party that drew that match-up. This would let them concentrate on the two candidates, which simplifies the selection process for the voter. Overall, the process is like following the baseball standings (before divisional plays, inter-league play, the designated hitter, and steroids). Your alternative is more like the BCS. Title: Re: New Primary Format Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on January 11, 2008, 01:44:42 AM Here's my idea. Have 51 or however many days, each with a primary or caucus to be scheduled on that day. The order of the states is determined by an auction of how which fraction of their delegates they are willing to give up. For instance, the 1st place state might end up having to give up 100% of their delegates, the next state 90%, while the last few states wouldn't give up anything.
If a lot of states really wanted to be first, I could see allowing bids of over 100%, and so the first state would end up with NEGATIVE delegates, and the winner of that state would LOSE delegates. |