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Title: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on September 30, 2007, 11:40:46 PM New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Insider Advantage on 2007-09-25 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2007/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=21200709250)
Summary: D: 45%, R: 35%, U: 20% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_insideradvantage_kentucky_1.php) Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Verily on October 10, 2007, 07:33:03 PM Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0 Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on October 15, 2007, 03:18:06 PM Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0 That's July 11th; this is October 1st. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Verily on October 15, 2007, 03:27:04 PM Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0 That's July 11th; this is October 1st. Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on October 15, 2007, 04:26:37 PM Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0 That's July 11th; this is October 1st. Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll. OK, but there have been a lot of polls in between. Overall, this poll had him losing steam. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2007, 07:41:47 PM Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way. Look at it like this:
5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6 5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9 5/13 - Jones Research - D +20 ... 5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8 5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9 5/27 - Jones Research - D +8 How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one? A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one. This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is). Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on October 15, 2007, 09:20:28 PM Insider Advantage polls have ALWAYS shown Beshear up by less than all other polls, so this is another outlier from a crappy poll, and as Verily has pointed out, is actually a gain for him.
My guess is IA doesn't push leaners at all. Beshear is picking up in their poll because leaners are now moving toward him with the election coming closer. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on October 15, 2007, 09:21:53 PM Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way. Look at it like this: 5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6 5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9 5/13 - Jones Research - D +20 ... 5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8 5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9 5/27 - Jones Research - D +8 How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one? A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one. This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is). Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea. I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most. We're talking 3 months here. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Alcon on October 15, 2007, 09:41:44 PM Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way. Look at it like this: 5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6 5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9 5/13 - Jones Research - D +20 ... 5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8 5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9 5/27 - Jones Research - D +8 How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one? A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one. This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is). Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea. I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most. We're talking 3 months here. The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on October 16, 2007, 12:08:34 AM Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way. Look at it like this: 5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6 5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9 5/13 - Jones Research - D +20 ... 5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8 5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9 5/27 - Jones Research - D +8 How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one? A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one. This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is). Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea. I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most. We're talking 3 months here. The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story. But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart. Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Alcon on October 16, 2007, 12:27:24 AM I'd argue you can't necessarily look at a trend anyway, especially when other polls are showing a much different result than this one.
Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Gabu on October 16, 2007, 01:38:27 AM But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart. His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll. Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"? Title: Re: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam Post by: Alcon on October 16, 2007, 02:07:08 AM But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart. His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll. Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"? Yes, exactly what I meant - and also when one poll is frequently slanted toward sucking. |