Talk Elections

http://newnebraska.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=255

He never entered the race in the first place, but he did officially announce that he wasn't running.

This makes Nebraska "Likely GOP". The next best Dem candidate is Omaha mayor Mike Fahey, but he's have an uphill climb against Johanns.

Once again, this is not news.  To say that Fahey has an uphill climb against Johanns is probably an understatement, at least...

no one could of saw it coming

now this is downgraded to tossup

Prepare for a primary fight between Johanns and Jim Edgar.

Illinois is closer to Nebraska than New York City, after all.

que?

Bob Kerrey now resides in New York City, not Nebraska. So it seemed foolish from the start he'd consider running for a Senate seat in Nebraska when only two years ago he flirted with the idea of running for Mayor of New York City.

Jim Edgar always flirts with the media about running for Illinois Governor, Senator, US Secretary of Agriculture, UN Secretary General, Pope. (Last two are made up). Then once a sufficient amount of media attention is gained, Edgar announces he won't be seeking whatever office he originally said he might be interested in. Kerrey took a page out of Edgar's book here.

Know what would have been awesome?  A Bob Kerrey-Paul Vallas primary for this seat, with Paul Vallas going on to face Jim Edgar in the general.

Damn, I was really hoping he would run.  That means the GOP will hold onto Nebraska.

Hate to burst the bubble, but the GOP would have held on to Nebraska anyway.  There's a reason why the guy passed on a race he really wanted to jump into.

With Maine and to some extent Oregon not really close and Louisiana possibly flipping to the Republicans, this makes it nearly impossible for the Democrats to obtain a 60-seat majority for the 111th Congress.

The way I see it, the Democrats have their best shots in NH, CO, NM, VA, and maybe NC with outside shots in Oregon and Oklahoma. If both Oregon goes Democrat and Oklahoma stays GOP (vomits) and Louisiana flips to GOP, then the Democrats are now down to a probable gain of 5 seats with best case scenario of 8 seats.  This would put their majority between 54 and 57 seats (they currently have 49, with 2 democrat-voting independents), so in effect between 56 and 59 seats.

Louisiana, in my opinion, has an equal chance of staying Democrat as it does of flipping Republican.

(If I am missing any obviously close races, which I very well may be, please tell me and I'll correct my assumption.)

Minnesota  (It won't change your assumption, but it is a close race)

I'm very disappointed that Kerrey has decided not to run. I thought he'd have the best chance to win among NE Dems. Even if he's ideologically out of touch with the state, as a former Senator, he'd have had an easier race.

Sen. No Democrat Filed (D-OK) will a true progressive!

... I'm sorry?

State Sen. Andrew Rice (D-Oklahoma City) has filed.  He's a true progressive.

The Nebraska Senate Seat would have been a challenge to win even if Bob Kerrey ran.  Now there basically is no chance.  Mike Johanns would either have to be implicated in a major scandal or have a "Macaca" like meltdown.  Stranger things have happened but I am not holding my breath.

Solid GOP.

I finally agree with you 100%.

Well, the only correction I'd make is that there is no chance in hell that North Carolina will choose an openly gay Democrat to replace Liddy Friggin' Dole in the U.S. Senate during a Presidential year.  I don't even consider that one on the table anymore as a longshot.  Democrats don't have a serious candidate, and they can't even win a surprise upset there without one.


Which guarantees a checkmark in the loss column.  Even the mention of Oklahoma flipping seems like a hopeless tack-on now that NC and NE have slid right off the board and into the trash can.

Not necessarily.  Now, I will agree that Oklahoma is very likely going to remain Republican in the Senate, but its not impossible for Inhofe to lose.  He is not very well liked amongst his own state.  However, the state has a much better chance of flipping in the Presidential race than in the Senate race, but neither is impossible.  I think... wait, I KNOW, the federal Democrats have a very good shot in Oklahoma this time around due to several factors which I've already mentioned. 

Please, do not laugh at me every time I mention Oklahoma possibly going Democrat.  I have very legitimate reasons for saying such and, frankly, it is very immature when you laugh and ridicule me for my analysis.  You seriously don't think I know anything about Oklahoma if I say Democrats have a chance.  I know I am immature for constantly whining about it, but how would you feel if someone constantly kept scoffing at your comments every time you made them.

It is also GUARANTEED that the 2008 map will look NOTHING like 2004.

Post of the Day.

It's not fair, I know, but everyone laughs and rips at you because we all believe—for very good reason—that your predictions are clouded by wishful thinking and have little grounding in reality.  Maybe you'll be right and we'll all be proven wrong!  (Don't hold your breath.)

I don't go around insisting that Massachusetts could possibly be in play for Republicans in 2008 (Giuliani is a different kind of candidate and is socially liberal and has connections with the Italian community and Kerry has low approvals and the map is changing and whatever) and that maybe there's an outside chance that Kerry could get ousted by, say, that Ogonowski dude.  But if I did, feel free to mock and ridicule, because that's just as ridiculous as a Dem pick up in Oklahoma by a "true progressive."

:(

"Republicans are relieved that former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) has decided not to run for the seat being made vacant by Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel's retirement," according to the latest Evans-Novak Political Report. "Kerrey certainly was not guaranteed victory, but he would have started as the front-runner."

"This leaves former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R), also a former governor and mayor of Lincoln, as the favorite in this race." He "starts with high poll ratings and fundraising potential. He will face a serious primary challenge, however, from state Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning (R), who was already in the race before Hagel's retirement, planning to challenge the incumbent on his opposition to the Iraq War."

"Without a high-profile Democrat, the Republican nature of this state makes it fairly safe. Even in a bad GOP year, this one becomes a contest only if the Republicans bungle it, either through a very bruising primary or through an unforeseen scandal. For now, this race can be moved to the second tier. Likely Republican Retention."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/31/kerreys_decision_hurts_democrats_in_taking_hagels_seat.html