Talk Elections

THE COURIER-JOURNAL BLUEGRASS POLL
Conway's lead grows in attorney general race
Poll shows Lee trails by 22 points
By Andrew Wolfson
awolfson@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal


By Andrew Wolfson
awolfson@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal



Jack Conway, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, has slightly expanded the commanding lead he enjoyed in September over Republican Stan Lee.

Conway, a Louisville trial lawyer who led 48 percent to 27 percent in the earlier Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, increased that lead to 53 percent to 31 percent in more recent polling.

Lee had said in September that he'd hoped to take up the slack by winning over undecided voters.

But the latest poll, conducted Oct. 26-29, found that Conway led Lee, a state representative from Lexington, in all six of Kentucky's congressional districts -- and even among voters who identify themselves as evangelicals or born-again Christians, whose issues Lee has championed.

The new poll found that Conway had nearly the same lead over Lee (22 percentage points) as Democrat Steve Beshear had over his Republican rival, Gov. Ernie Fletcher (56-33 percent).

The latest poll interviewed 710 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The poll found that 19 percent of Republicans say they will cross party lines and vote for Conway, compared with 13 percent of Democrats who say they will vote for Lee.

Conway's campaign manager, Mark Riddle, said the results show that "Jack's message, vision and energy has resonated throughout the state."

Riddle also said Conway "is humbled by the fact that so many Republicans are crossing over and giving him a vote of confidence."

Lee, who is seeking to become the first Republican attorney general since the 1940s, said: "The polls are what they are, but I'm not sure I agree with them."

He particularly questioned results that showed Conway led 51 percent to 33 percent among people who identified themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians.

"I am an elder in my church and pro-life, and my opponent is pro-abortion," he said. "Hopefully the people will see that come Election Day and make the right choice."

Conway has said he supports abortion rights.

In the General Assembly, as House minority whip, Lee has championed such issues as traditional marriage and making killing a fetus a crime, and he claimed during the campaign that his views are more closely in line with Kentuckians' than Conway's.

But the poll found that Conway led 49 percent to 35 percent among people who attend religious services weekly or nearly once a week.

It also found that Conway held a substantial lead among nearly all categories of voters analyzed by the poll, regardless of age, education, race and income.

The only area of the state in which Lee was ahead was in heavily Republican south-central Kentucky, where he led 36 percent to 32 percent. Conway was especially popular in urban areas, including Jefferson County, where he held a lead of nearly 40 percentage points.

Most of a dozen poll participants who agreed to follow-up interviews said they didn't know much about either candidate and were voting mostly on party affiliation.

Wilton Fraze, 66, a retired salesman from Louisville who described himself as an avid Democrat, said he's voting for Conway because he'd like to see him run next year against Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell.

"If they were running a rock against McConnell, I'd vote for it," Fraze said.

But Fraze said he met Conway several years ago at a Catholic church picnic and liked him.

Dixie Lord, 56, another Louisville Democrat who indicated she's voting for Conway, said she likes the fact that he's ambitious and might seek higher office. Lord, a caregiver, said she knows nothing about Lee.

Republican Norewood Elvis Watains, 73, a Logan County farmer, said he knows nothing about either candidate but is voting a Republican ticket because he likes Fletcher's stance against casino gambling.

Watains said one of his friends had to sell his trailer and prepaid funeral to pay casino gambling debts.

Phillip Rhew, 63, a Republican who lives outside Paducah and is a retired chemical worker, said he's voting for Lee "because he's not a Democrat."

But David Hester, 46, a registered Republican from Laurel County who owns several pharmacies, said he's voting for Conway -- and the rest of the Democratic ticket -- because "the Republicans have let the country down."

"The war, the economy, you name it, the president and his Republican group has taken the country in the wrong direction," Hester said.

The poll found that Conway, who in 2002 ran a close race for Congress in the 3rd District against then-incumbent Anne Northup, was better known than Lee.

Fifty-two percent of respondents had read or heard about Conway versus 35 percent who knew about Lee.

More than twice as many voters had a favorable impression of Conway than an unfavorable impression, while Lee's favorable and unfavorable marks were nearly the same.

In campaign debates, Conway has portrayed Lee as a right-wing extremist whose views and votes were out of touch with other members of the General Assembly. Lee has described Conway as an ultra-liberal.

Secretary of state race very close
Poll finds Grayson has slight edge


By Deborah Yetter
dyetter@courier-journal.com
The Courier-Journal

Republican incumbent Trey Grayson is virtually tied with Democratic challenger Bruce Hendrickson in the race for secretary of state, according to The Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll.

With the election next week, 40 percent of the 710 likely voters polled favor Grayson, 35, a lawyer from Northern Kentucky, compared to 36 percent who say they would vote for the lesser-known Hendrickson, 56, a teacher from Eastern Kentucky.
The 3.7 percentage point margin of error for the poll, conducted Oct. 26-29, makes the race very close as the Nov. 6 election nears.

Some believe the poor showing of Gov. Ernie Fletcher, a Republican trailing Democratic challenger Steve Beshear in the polls, could hurt other GOP candidates -- except, possibly, for Richie Farmer, who is seeking a second term as state Agriculture Commissioner.

Farmer, a former University of Kentucky and Clay County High basketball star, may be popular enough to keep people disillusioned with the Fletcher administration from voting a straight Democratic party ticket, said John McGarvey, a Louisville lawyer and election night commentator on KET.

And that could help Grayson in his bid for the office that oversees elections and corporate and business filings, he said.

"If he's elected, he should take Richie Farmer to dinner every week for the next four years," McGarvey said. "And he ought to make a contribution to the blue-and-white fund at UK."

Grayson acknowledged that Fletcher -- who is behind Beshear by 23 points, according to the Bluegrass Poll -- could hurt his prospects. But he said he believes he can build his lead by attracting more undecided voters in the final days before the election.

The poll showed 24 percent of people likely to vote in the secretary of state race remain undecided -- compared to 10 percent who said they are undecided about the governor's race.

"I feel confident we're going to get enough votes to win this race," said Grayson, who plans to spend the last of nearly $1 million he raised on a television-ad blitz of the state over the next several days.

Hendrickson, by contrast, has raised about $18,000, according to his last spending report and is little known outside his hometown of Pineville, where he teaches in the city's school system and served as mayor until he lost a re-election bid last year.

He did not respond to several requests for comment.

But his campaign manager, Jack Walker, said the poll results are encouraging. Hendrickson -- who with a limited budget, has relied mostly on personal appearances -- isn't letting up, Walker said.

"We're going to keep campaigning as long as we can," Walker said, adding that Hendrickson began running a radio ad yesterday.

Last-minute campaigning won't influence Gloria Grant, 70, a Democrat in west Louisville who said she plans to vote a straight Democratic ticket largely because she didn't like Fletcher's blanket pardon of members of his administration indicted in the merit hiring scandal.

"He pardoned everybody," said Grant, a poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview. "That was kind of disgusting."

However, Charlene Hall, 68, a Republican from Paintsville, said she hasn't decided whether to vote along party lines -- although she does plan to vote for Grayson.

Hall, a poll respondent who agreed to a follow-up interview, said she's thinks Grayson has done a good job and "I go for the person" rather than the party.

Others also seem willing to split the ticket with their votes, including Barbara Finch, 68, a Lexington Democrat who said she supports Beshear for governor but plans to vote for Grayson as secretary of state.

"I think he's done a good job and everything I've read about him says he's a good man," said Finch, a poll respondent who agreed to an interview.

The poll showed some Democratic support for Grayson, with 23 percent saying they would vote for him compared to 53 percent who plan to vote for Hendrickson. Among Republicans, 72 percent support Grayson and 9 percent, Hendrickson.

Grayson and Hendrickson appeared tied in the state's five urban counties of Jefferson, Fayette, Boone, Kenton and Campbell. But Hendrickson led in Jefferson County, with 45 percent of the vote compared to 32 percent for Grayson.

Of voters who said they disapproved of Fletcher's performance as governor, 50 percent said they plan to vote for Hendrickson and 28 percent for Grayson.

That last finding could be bad news for Grayson, considered one of the brighter and more promising young Republicans in Kentucky, McGarvey said.

"I think Grayson has a potential problem, and it's not of his own making," he said. "I think it's possible he could be brought down."