Talk Elections

Have fun :)

(repeated from previous thread)
Live Election Coverage in Windows Media Player

Nine: mms://news.netshow.ninemsn.com.au/9MSNLive
(stream seems to crap out after ten minutes or so)

ABC: http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/election.asx

Has anyone found live streams from Ten or Seven?

Do Australian districts have precincts like they do in the US or Canada? Or are they like the UK?

Yes, but they call them booth results.

Ok, so we'll get results fairly soon then. I know you know this, but for others, we call them "polls" in Canada.

I was about to ask if we had an Australian among us to guide us along, but then I realized we had Al which is even better :)

I'm rooting for two hopeless causes tonight:
1) The Coalition somehow, someway, holds on
2) The Democrats keep....something....anything.  F**king Greens.

and maybe one less hopeless:
3) The Coalition picks up those two marginal seats in Perth

ABC website has the astute analysis that 150 seats are in doubt.

Trust me, I wouldn't be up yet if this wasn't the case!

Of course, all seats are presently "in doubt" no results are in yet... that should happen in about 15 mins.


Also we'll get dribs and drabs. No solid numbers until about 7:30-8pm EST.

Results coming in from Calare in rural NSW - National seat.

I kid, I kid.

ABC has 2 Coalition, 1 Labor.

I know, I know.

Callare is a non-issue. It was held by a very popular local independent, who retired due to ill health and passed away. This seat was held by the Nationals before, and will be held by them after tonight.

htmldon-the first is certainly possible. WA might even give an extra seat ot two the the government-if the ALP isn't ahead by 16 before WA, it won't win government. That said, SA is looking very good for the opposition. It ought to be close, imho.


First results are in, mainly from Page. Nationals have 41% of the vote so far ;)

Al, I thought you said the ABC's coverage was superb, this is sh*t. NO TICKER wtf?

There's no ticker because there are no results yet.

no need. www.aec.gov.au with the ABC on tv, for me.

ALP ahead in Braddon.

With 1 of 74 of course :)

7% swing to Labor in Macquarie...with 326 votes counted.

Yes there are. In Canada, if a poll comes in with 1 vote in it, it shows up in the ticker!

Channel 9 has two tickers. Kind of.

There's way too much discussion about swings... not something Im used to.

Just got a bit excited in the tally room-a 10.3% swing against rthe PM in his own seat, on the basis of one booth.

ABC has it at 31 ALP - 27 Coalition with a grand total of 0.6% in.

So will they talk about the Senate at all, or is it only the House that people care about?

because of the voting system, its very very hard to get qany meaningful results from the senate until at least the day after the election.

Ah, I see.

ABC calling Corangamite for Labor.

20% in for Corangamite, huge swing to ALP.

8% in for E-M with the ALP winning with 51.29%

ALP gain Page

ALP gains Deakin.

Maybe. Looking at the booths, it could still be very, very,  veeeery close.

These results are all over the place.

10% in Hume... ? WTF!?

Channel 9 calls Lindsay for ALP, ABC Braddon for ALP.

9 also gives Cowper and Eden-Monaro to the ALP.

Bass is close; keeps flipping betwixted the parties.

ALP's 16 gains:

1. Deakin
2. Braddon
3. Corangamite
4. Eden-Monaro
5. Wakefield

ABC says Labor needs 7 more, Channel 9 says they need 10.

Paterson is very close

Australian election results coverage is very different from American coverage. There's such a huge focus on percentages and swings and projections, while American results actually pay very little attention to the exact percentages, instead focusing on whether or not the seat has been won and the issues behind the election. Very jarring.

John Howard's still on track to lose his seat. :D

Channel 9 claims ALP has gained Bennelong.

ABC says Bennelong is gone!

Yay! When is the last time a sitting Prime Minister has lost their seat?

ABC seems to have called Bennelong for ALP!

1929 I think.

Yep, Stanley Bruce in 1929.

Ahaha, Channel 9 just ran all of the losers faces through a shredder. How cruel yet hilarious.

Page for labor

6. Page
7. Deakin
8. Macquarie
9. Dobell
10. Kingston

ABC has Labor gaining 12 at this point.

I'm confused - they seem to frequently call seats for one side and then change their minds quickly. Are the calls not supposed to be permanent as in Canada and America?

Monster swing in Macarthur; now very, very close.

The calls are based on swings. The more booths in, the better the calls come.

they're suggestions, but Australians are a little more independant in their opinions than American pig-pog capitalist sheep ;)

But I want to be told by the media exactly what happened instantly! :(

Remember we have hand counting... so we go by swings and booth analysis to give a prediction of what "may happen based on present information".

Turnbull has a diddy lead in Wentworth

So? We have hand counting in Canada as well, yet the networks never make "predictions", only calls.

Green gives a "cautious prediction" of an ALP win

It'll happen.

Biiiiiiiiiiiiiiiig swing in Dawson

11. Makin
12. Lindsay
13. Dawson-hung parliament
14. Bonner
15. Bass

Well, my vote has been counted :)

(Sandridge, Melbourne Ports)

The Bennelong swing is getting smaller.

ABC has called the election, more or less.

Yea, I think it's pretty clear what's going to happen. Just a matter of time now.

Not as dramatic as we do it in North America.

I like how ABC calls a seat and then puts the loser on and asks them how they feel about losing while the losing candidate has to pretend like he still has a chance.

ALP still ahead in Bennelong.

Anthony Green predicts 14-seat Labor majority.

I think we can all agree that the Energizer Bunny has finally ran out of battery power.

I've got to agree with Lief that the losers denying that they lost is much more entertaining than the losers reflecting on why they sucked.

It should've been a quadruple bypass.

ABC have just officially called a 75th ALP seat.

And a 76th. ALP win.

Channel 9 agrees. Tallyroom was going insane.

Labor gain Kalgoorlie (ABC)

16. Moreton-ALP win!
17. Blair

The swings are much higher in working class seats than elsewhere.

How do the two independents vote? Do they caucus with the Labor or Coalition?

No way...if thats true, there will be a massive result WA-wise.

Lief-they're independent; one former national and one a true indie but right-leaning.

Solomon to ALP.

Might have been a gremlin. ABC has no figures on the website for Kalgoorlie yet.


But the true indie hats the Nats and the ex-Nat has QLP heritage.

Tasmania senate with 27% in:

1     SHERRY Nick     Australian Labor Party
2    COLBECK Richard M    Liberal Party
3    BROWN Bob    Australian Greens
4    BROWN Carol    Australian Labor Party
5    BUSHBY David    Liberal Party
6    BILYK Catryna    Australian Labor Party

The present ACT Senate numbers have Liberal Gary Humphries surviving - despite a combined 63% Labor/Green vote.

ABC now predicts 20-seat majority for Labor.

Welcome to rural Australia. Katter also supports the formation of a new, ONP-like party. He also wants, and syas the new party would campaign for, North Qld statehood.

There's a Liberal on Channel 9 who still isn't willing to concede the election.

ditto on ABC. First mention of Melbourne Ports this election, as well :)

So is John Howard going to resign as party leader tonight?

he'll have no choice.

Especially if he loses Bennelong ;)

No Liberal will resign to give him their seat? Shame. Lose one national mandate and everyone's angry.

Bennelong called for ALP again

It seems on the ABC website that counting has stalled at 52.7%

Not a chance.

Howard is one the key reasons why they lost. Whatever he might be, he is a decent man - he knows what the consequences of this result is, he knows what he has to do.

It's customary for the Leader of the losing party to resign - especially given what his plans were.

Labor= Flynn:??

Howard would rather be the English 12th man than run in a by-election to be opposition leader.

NSW Senate, 15% in:

1     ARBIB Mark     Australian Labor Party
2    COONAN Helen    Liberal Party
3    CAMERON Doug    Australian Labor Party
4    WILLIAMS John    National Party
5    PAYNE Marise    Liberal Party
6    STEPHENS Ursula    Australian Labor Party

Vic Senate, 13.5% in:

1     FIFIELD Mitch     Liberal Party
2    COLLINS Jacinta    Australian Labor Party
3    KROGER Helen    Liberal Party
4    MARSHALL Gavin    Australian Labor Party
5    RYAN Scott    Liberal Party
6    DI NATALE Richard    Australian Greens

SA Senate, 11% in:

1     BERNARDI Cory     Liberal Party
2    FARRELL Don    Australian Labor Party
3    BIRMINGHAM Simon    Liberal Party
4    WONG Penny    Australian Labor Party
5    XENOPHON Nick    Independent
6    HANSON-YOUNG Sarah    Australian Greens

Swing TO the Democrats in Melbourne Ports, probably uniquely, Australia-wide.

No mention massive of that MASSIVE swing in Forde.

Though yes the Upper class seats like Wentworth, et al have proven dissapointing.

Well, Wentworth had a false margin due to Peter King's independent candidacy in 2004.

And because of the bits coming in from Sydney; where the Liberals had run dead in 2004 in the hope of finishing behind the Greenies.

I heart Maxine.

Nice to see Howard powned.

Yeah; that was a good speech (not right word but thee know what I mean).

It would take something MASSIVE for a true blue-ribbon Liberal seat to fall to Labor - Wentworth's numbers, as Al points out were based on Peter King's candidacy in 2004. I would imagine that in reality his margin was closer 6-8%. Even facing that, Labor's candidate had EVERYTHING going for him (Labor surge, Environmental concerns, being Jewish) but the campaign was run appallingly.


Bennelong is very close... we won't know for a couple of days.

Liberals gain Swan.

Fran Bailey - a Liberal minister who seems to have just BARELY survived in her VIC sea of McEwen hit the nail on the head. When asked about the lessons of this election she said this "people think the economy is working well for them... but they wanted more".

I think it might be a bit more than bare by the end. Coincidentally, she's got an absolutely MASSIVE personal vote-wa could vote ALP when she leaves.tch the seat when she retires; I'd guess as much as 10% of the electorate voted for her personally, and as much as 8% of that

What happened there?

WA has hardly swung for various reasons; booming economy and some scandals in the state ALP IIRC.

Massive result as it looks like Howard has also lost his seat of benelong! Huge and shocking news for Howard

It only seems to be case in Perth (which is nearly all of WA anyway); Kalgoorlie might just go with the national trend - anyway that seat is more like a much bigger version of some of the seats the Nationals lost in Queensland or Grey in SA (which was a narrow liberal retain.)

Liberals have finally picked up a seat in WA... Currently 84 to Labor, Coalition 55, Independent 2 and Undecided 8....

Kalgoorlie is the largest electorate in the world; ergo its a bit spesh, but the libs'll win it.

Current ABC tallies with 70.92% of the 2pp vote counted
Labour 72 certain + 14 leading + 14 trailing (+12 to +40)
Of their 60 seats last election, 58 are certain and 2 (both in WA) are trailing.
Liberals 40 certain + 12 leading + 11 trailing
Of their 74 seats last election, 40 are certain, 10 leading, 11 trailing, and 13 are goners.
Nationals 8 certain + 2 leading + 2 trailing
Haven't lost a seat for sure yet
CLP trailing in its lone seat
Both indies reelected

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7109692.stm

The Energizer Bunny has finally switched off.

Gains and losses (things could still change a wee bit, but not much)...

Labor gain from Liberal

Bass
Bennelong
Blair
Bonner
Bowman
Braddon
Corangamite
Deakin
Dickson
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Forde
Hasluck
Herbert
Kingston
Leichhardt
Lindsay
Longman
Makin
Moreton
Parramatta*
Petrie
Robertson
Solomon
Wakefield

Labor gain from National

Dawson
Page
Flynn

Liberal gain from Labor

Cowan
Swan

*Parramatta was won by Labor in 2004, but was turned notionally Liberal by boundary changes. Macquarie was won by the Liberals in 2004 but turned notionally Labor by boundary changes (actually it's basically a new seat, though a recreation of Chifley's old seat, with an old name).
Italics mean that ABC still regards seat as in doubt.

A word of caution to the UK Labour government.

I'm pleased with the results in Australia; a change was needed.

Harper must be weeping right now. He lost one of his best friends.

As is the President of the United States...

So which Western allies (read: toadies) does that leave Bush with? Rasmussen and Balkenende?

Sarkozy, possibly Brown... Shinzo Abe...

Abe hasn't been a PM for quite some time now.

My mistake. It's Fukuda of course.

Harper... or do Canadians not count?

Marvellous. One less f***wit in charge. :)

What's the deal with the Senate? Why do the Greens have five seats, but no representation in the House?

The Senate is elected by proportional representation. The House is elected by IRV in single seat constituencies.

"Proportional" is one word that should not be used in conjunction with the Australian Senate, which has no population equalization and has two two-member STV districts that guarantee 2 seats each for the ALP and Coalition.

Looks like they probably didn't, still too close to call. They definitely did take Cowen, though.

Narrowly trailing with just one or two polls still out IIRC.

Current status of the really close seats...

McEwen: ALP lead by 570 votes
Herbert: ALP lead by 506 votes
Dickson: ALP lead by 473 votes
La Trobe: ALP lead by 400 votes
Bowman: ALP lead by 379 votes
Sturt: Lib lead by 79 votes
Macarthur: Lib lead by 225 votes
Swan: ALP lead by 285 votes
Cowper: Nat lead by 687 votes

Where did you get this info?

AEC website

One interestingly thing I noticed: when browsing the AEC (and later the ABC) I noticed the voter turnouts - they were mostly all in the 70% range; good-ish for a modern democracy but hey what happened to compulsory voting here. Or is there some explaination here that I need?

I'm not surprised with the results from the election. I had a gut feeling that the ALP led by Kruddmeister would win and they did. The Liberal Party, which will be led by Peter Costello has a lot of ground to cover if they're to win in 2010. I highly doubt they will win, so 2013 or 2016 is a realistic chance for them to win back the Lodge.

That's not actual turnout - it's proportion of the vote counted. A lot of postal and pre-poll votes are yet to be counted. Add those to the votes from yesterday that also were not counted.. there you have a much higher number.

RECAP OF RESULTS

Australian Labor Party: 82 seats WINNER
Liberal/National Party: 58 seats
Independents: 2 seats
In Doubt: 8 seats

Key Points

• John Howard likely to lose Bennelong to Labor's Maxine McKew.
• Swing of 5.6% to the Australian Labor Party which 70% of the vote counted.
• The Greens set to hold the balance of power in the Senate.
• Family First gains a seat in the Senate. The Democrats all but finished.
• Four Coalition Ministers lose seats, Mal Brough, Christopher Pyne, Di-Ann Kelly & Phil Baresi.

Uh, Family First didn't pick up any Senate seat.

...and Pyne is ahead 50.5/49.5

When does counting resume?

Dave

They've already resumed.

The swing in Bennelong has increased to almost 6%

Well, ABC, which has been my primary source, doesn't seem to have updated its live results since 1.01AM


:)

Dave

Is it me or do some of these so-called 'Liberals' actually verge on being psychotically right-wing? A right nutjob seems to have just been elected in Mitchell, NSW

Dave

The Greens do not hold the balance of power in the Senate. The new Senate will be:

ALP: 32
Lib: 32
Green: 5
Nat: 4
CLP: 1
FFP: 1
Nick Xenophon: 1

That leaves the Coalition with 37 seats (38 including the FFP), the ALP+Greens with 37 seats and Nick Xenophon (someone for BRTD to really have a grudge against!) with the balance of power.

By the way, does anyone think that sometime in the future the ALP and Greens might end up in a coalition similar to the Liberal/National coalition? Not immediately, obviously, just eventually. There has never been a prolonged major party on the fringes before, just the Democrats in the center and the one-hit wonder of One Nation on the far-right.

I'm afraid not. Peter Costello won't be leading the Liberal Party anywhere. He has announced:

"He will not seek not will I accept the leadership or deputy leadership of the Liberal Party"

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305478

Dave

Possibly, should the Greens ever secure significant representation in the House. Are there any divisions in which the Greens have a realistic shot at beating Labor in first preferences?

It's logical for Green voters to cast 2nd preferences for Labor, but would Labor supporters really want to see Labor step aside to give the Green candidate a clear run against the Liberals?

Dave

What's more likely is that the Greens will inch past the Liberals in some inner-city seats, then overthrow Labor with Liberal preferences, as happened in the Cunningham by-election. This correlates well with how the Nationals perform: most Nationals seats are seats that would be overwhelmingly Liberal anyway (except in Queensland, where the Nationals were traditionally stronger than the Liberals and so they hold and compete in some marginals).

If I am to go by the past form, ABC election-night website doesn't get updated beyond the election night. Look at tha AEC webpage.

Thanks :)

So, Costello not taking up the baton, Howard out, a hostile-ish senate and a very volatile yet reasonably sign ificant majority. Interesting times ahead.

I am really shocked that Peter Costello has declined to run for the Liberal Party Leadership or stay on as Deputy Leader of the Libs. I wonder who will become Leader of the Liberal Party? Will it be the outgoing Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull or could it be Alexander Downer. If it's him the Libs have no chance in hell of winning in 2010.

Sorry for some of my mistakes before. Especially the one where I said that the Family First Party, led by Steve Fielding of Victoria, gained a seat in the Senate. Blame my friend for that.

It's really unexpected.

My money is on Turnbull/Hockey - stick it to the right.


Ah yes, Mr Hawke... Interesting character, let's just say he's taken some risks in the past and the skeletons in his closet have some flesh on them.

Looks like (at least so far) that only in 3 seats there has been any swing towards the Coalition.  In Cowan (WA) it means a Lib pick-up, in Wentworth (NSW) it's a Lib hold of a marginal and in Franklin (TAS) Libs largest swing (+2.99) merely means a slightly less safe Labor hold. Swan is very marginal, but for now it looks like a tiny swing towards Labor.

So, even in WA all seats but one (or, possibly, two) have swung towards Labor.

All polls have just reported from Bennelong, and they've counted the pre-polls. The swing to Labor is 5.79%. Only postals and provisionals remain.

Same count stage in Sturt - and Lib lead became more comfortable, if still marginal (Lib candidate got a whooping 64% of the pre-polls). AEC now counts it as Lib hold.

According to AEC only 8 seats remain "close".

Turnbull has announced he's running for leadership.

I hadn't even heard of this guy until yesterday, yet already I despise him...

I actually like Turnbull.

He's the best chance to wrestle the party away from the extreme right-wing.

According to AEC only 7 seats remain "close". In 6 of them ALP is ahead. The closest seat remains Swan, where the swing is back into Lib favor (0.01%) - but not yet enough to get the Lib into the lead (ALP incumbent is ahead by 85 votes on TPP).  In all but a couple of these seats the pre-polls have been counted, but not postals and provisionals.

Retirement of an extremely popular incumbent means that normal service has resumed their. If the original candidate hadn't been resigned, which happend in part due to various things the retiring incumbent did, Labor would probably have lost the seat.

Swan becomes more and more of a knife-edge. W/ 41 out of 42 polls reporting, and w/ the pre-polls counted Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes. The remaining poll is the Boronia pre-release prison for women.  How do the women prisoners vote?  Of course, postal and provisional ballots remain to be counted as well.

BTW, the results in Batman, so far, are (on TPP) ALP 76.68%, LIB 23.32% and in Grayndler they are 75.49% to 24.51%

Batman? There's a seat called Batman?

Is it official that Howard is going to collect whatever the Australian equivalent of a P45 is?

(That would be funny with him going into the unemployment office. Sounds like a sketch for a comedy show...)

Yes; it's in Melbourne. Just north of the city centre. Named after John Batman (http://gutenberg.net.au/dictbiog/0-dict-biogBa.html#batman1).

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q

And I hope he wins the leadership. I swear if Tony Abbott or Brendon Nelson becomes Leader, there is no chance that the Liberal Party can win in 2010.

In '04, only one vote was cast there and it didn't count.  In '01, no votes were cast for the prison mobile team 1 - though the prison apparently had a different name.  In other words, the result is unlikely to change there.

Postal ballots will probably lean Lib and may be enough to overcome a 39 vote lead - though Provisionals leaned heavy Labor in '04.  If the margins are the same as they were in '04, then the ALP would gain enough out of provisionals to make up for postals though.

 While the Turkish constituency of the same name is named for its capital city.

For those interested, the results on d'Hondt instead of IRV.

1% threshold:
ALP: 70
Liberal: 57
Greens: 12
Nationals: 8
Family First: 3

2-5% threshold:
ALP: 71
Liberal: 59
Greens: 12
Nationals: 8

I've just noticed that the refounded-rump-DLP polled relatively well in a division named Calwell. Amusing, no?

Results for Xenophon by division:

Adelaide: 16.8%
Barker: 10.9%
Boothby: 20.2%
Grey: 8.8%
Hindmarsh: 17.7%
Kingston: 14.8%
Makin: 16.4%
Mayo: 17.1%
Port Adelaide: 14%
Sturt: 18.9%
Wakefield: 13%

Conclusion? He did best in Adelaide, especially the middle class parts of Adelaide. Not a surprise really.

So, while it is still early, we might start looking at the future pendulum.

Starting from ultra-safe labor (over 20% TPP swing necessary to overturn):

1. Batman VIC 76.7% ALP
2. Grayndler NSW 75.5% ALP
3. Throsby NSW 74.1% ALP
4. Melbourne VIC 73.6% ALP
5. Wills VIC 73.6% ALP
6. Gellibrand VIC 72.0% ALP
7. Scullin VIC 71.2% ALP
8. Chifley NSW 71.0% ALP
9. Watson NSW 71.0% ALP
10. Gorton VIC 71.0% ALP
11. Sydney NSW 70.1% ALP
12. Port Adelaide SA 70.1% ALP

Very safe labor (over 15% TPP swing necessary):

13. Calwell VIC 69.6% LP
14. Blaxcland NSW 69.2% ALP
15. Fowler NSW 69.0% ALP
16. Cunningham NSW 68.5 ALP
17. Reid NSW 67.% ALP
18. Hunter NSW 66.5% ALP
19. Newcastle NSW 65.9% ALP
20. Lalor VIC 65.8% ALP
21. Dennison TAS 65.7% ALP
22. Maribyrnong VIC 65.5% ALP
23. Fraser ACT 65.4% ALP
24. Werriwa NSW 65.3% ALP
25. Shortland NSW 65.1% ALP

Safe labor (over 10% swing necessary):

26. Oxley QLD 64.9% ALP
27. Prospect NSW 63.9% ALP
28. Hotham VIC 63.8% ALP
29. Kingsford Smith NSW 63.6% ALP
30. Capricornia QLD 63.4% ALP
31. Charlton NSW 63.3% ALP
32. Lingiari NT 62.8% ALP
33. Holt VIC 62.6% ALP
34. Barton NSW 62.5% ALP
35. Griffith QLD 62.4% ALP
36. Rankin QLD 61.9 ALP
37. Canberra ACT 61.8 ALP
38. Banks NSW 61.2% ALP

Strong Labor (over 5% swing required):

39. Corio VIC 59.5% ALP
40. Fremantle WA 59.4% ALP
41. Perth WA 59.4% ALP
42. Jagajaga VIC 59.2% ALP
43. Richmond NSW 58.9 ALP
44. Lyons TAS 58.8% ALP
45. Lilley QLD 58.7% ALP
46. Ballarat VIC 58.5 ALP
47. Bruce VIC 58.3% ALP
48. Adelaide SA 58.1% ALP
49. Isaacs VIC 58.0% ALP
50. Makin SA 58.0% ALP (gain)
51. Melbourne Ports VIC 58.0% ALP
52. Chisholm VIC 57.8% ALP
53. Lowe NSW 57.4% ALP
54. Maquarie NSW 57.4% ALP
55. Parramatta NSW 57.2% ALP (notional gain)
56. Lindsay NSW 57.1% ALP (gain)
57. Brisbane QLD 57.1% ALP
58. Wakefield SA 57.0% ALP (gain)
59. Brand WA 56.1% ALP
60. Bendigo VIC 56.0% ALP
61. Hindmarsh SA 55.2% ALP
62. Bonner QLD 55.1% ALP (gain)

Marginal labor (between 1% and 5% swing necessary):

63. Blair QLD 54.9% ALP (gain)
64. Leichhardt QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
65. Moreton QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
66. Franklin TAS 54.6 ALP
67. Kingston SA 54.6% ALP (gain)
68. Eden-Monaro NSW 54.2% ALP (gain)
69. Dobell NSW 54.1% ALP (gain)
70. Longman QLD 53.8% ALP (gain)
71. Dawson QLD 53.5% ALP (gain)
72. Forde QLD 53.0% ALP (gain)
73. Flynn QLD 52.8% ALP (gain)
74. Page NSW 52.6% ALP (gain)
75. Petrie QLD 52.3% ALP (gain)
76. Deakin VIC 52.1% ALP (gain)
______________________________ Necessary for majority
77. Bennelong NSW 51.7% ALP (gain)
78. Corangamite VIC 51.4% ALP (gain)
79. Braddon TAS 51.6% ALP (gain)
80. Hasluck WA 51.4% ALP (gain)
81. Bass TAS 51.1% ALP (gain)

Labor super-marginals (as currently stands, some might be overturned, less than 1% swing required to overturn):

82. Solomon NT 50.8% ALP (gain?)
83. Robertson NSW 50.6% ALP (gain?)
84. LaTrobe VIC 50.3% ALP (gain?)
85. Herbert QLD 50.3% ALP (gain?)
86. Dickson QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
87. McEwen VIC 50.2% ALP (gain?)
88. Bowman QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
89. Swan WA 50.0% ALP (hold?)

Coalition super-marginal (again, as currently stands, less than 1% swing required)

90. Macarthur NSW 50.2% LIB (hold?)
91. Sturt SA 50.6% LIB (hold?)
92. Cowper NSW 50.9% NAT (hold?)

Coalition marginals (1% to 5% required to overturn):

93. Striling WA 51.1% LIB
94. Paterson NSW 51.2% LIB
95. Hinckler QLD 51.2% NAT
96. Cowan WA 51.4% LIB (gain)
97. Hughest NSW 51.8% LIB
98. Kalgoorlie WA 52.2% LIB
99. Fairfax QLD 52.4% LIB
100. Fisher QLD 52.6% LIB
101. Boothby SA 52.8% LIB
102. Gilmore NSW 53.3% LIB
103. Hume NSW 53.4% LIB
104. Dunkley VIC 53.5% LIB
105. Wentworth NSW 53.6% LIB
106. Ryan QLD 53.7% LIB
107. Grey SA 54.0% LIB
108. Greenway NSW 54.6% LIB
109. McMillan VIC 54.6% LIB
110. Aston VIC 54.7% LIB

Strong Coalittion (over 5% requird to overturn):

111. Menzies VIC 55.0% LIB
112. North Sydney NSW 55.2% LIB
113. Casey VIC 55.2% LIB
114. Canning WA 55.5% LIB
115. Gippsland VIC 55.6% NAT
116. Goldstein VIC 55.6% LIB
117. Forrest WA 55.7% LIB
118. Mayo SA 56.5% LIB
119. Higgins VIC 56.9% LIB
120. Cook NSW 57.1%  LIB
121. Wannon VIC 57.5% LIB
122. Flinders VIC 57.8% LIB
123. Groom QLD 58.0% LIB
124. Wide Bay QLD 58.2% NAT
125. Lyne NSW 58.3 NAT
126. McPherson QLD 58.6% LIB
127. Berowra NSW 58.7% LIB
128. Indi VIC 58.8% LIB
129. Tangney WA 58.8% LIB
130. Kooyong VIC 58.9% LIB
131. Moore WA 59.0% LIB
132. Barker SA 59.1% LIB
133. Pearce WA 59.1% LIB
134. Warringah NSW 59.5% LIB

Safe Coalition (over 10% swing required):

135. Fadden QLD 60.1% LIB
136. Calare NSW 61.3% NAT
137. Farrer NSW 61.3% LIB
138. Mitchell NSW 61.4% LIB
139. Parkes NSW 62.3% NAT
140. Mackelar NSW 62.6% LIB
141. Maranoa QLD 63.0% NAT
142. Bradfield NSW 63.6% LIB
143. Curtin WA 64.3% LIB
144. Moncrieff QLD 64.4% LIB

Very safe coalition (over 15% swing required)

145. Riverina NSW 65.7% NAT
146. O'Connor WA 66.7% LIB
147. Murray VIC 68.3% LIB

Ultra-safe Coalition (over 20% swing required):

148. Mallee VIC 71.5% NAT

Ultra-safe independent

149.  New England NSW 74.6% Ind. (against NAT)

Very safe independent

150. Kennedy QLD 65.5% Ind. (against ALP)

The last outstanding poll seems to have come from Bowman (of course, potals, etc., still outstanding). The ALP lead is down to 55 votes. The ALP leadin Swan is currently 53 votes. Everywhere else the gap one way or another is, at least, 300 votes. Still, 2 real cliff-hangers out of 150 - that's a lot!

Seems like postals put McEwen and La Trobe in the LIB column.

ALP would have taken this with a better candidate; the one they had was so bad he was almost impressive. I think Labor actually polled more votes than the Coalition in Hinkler in the Senate election.

The ALP tried Hinkler in 2004 as well with a lot of resources. Obviously, they didn't win. This seat has changed a bit since 2001, but it still would be coalition in a 75-75 parliament.

All true. But I think a better candidate could have added the 1.2 to the swing needed to win it.

Talking of bad candidates, I can't help but notice the big swing in Mitchell. Still a safe Liberal seat o/c.

Looks like when all the votes will be tallied the Greens will come second in Melbourne. What this means for the 2PP I cannae claim to know.

Their first second-place finish. Quite a moment for the party, I think, though obviously the ALP wins the seat easily (they have 50.8% in first-preferences).

Interestingly, ABC has the Greens leading the Libs by two votes but still has the TPP as ALP-Lib.

The ALP advantage in Swan is now down to 17 votes!  Both La Trobe and McEwen seem to get safer for the Libs (though still very marginal, of course).

And Bowman is now back in the Lib territory - by 27 votes!

So, the seven closest seats, according to AEC now have the following margins:

Swan WA ALP advantage of 17 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 316 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 344 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 445 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 608 votes

Should the Greens finish 2nd to Labor will the Liberal votes then have to be reallocated?. Seems a bit daft reallocating before all primary votes are counted

Dave

Well, it's gonna be exciting for a while yet in some districts. I must say I like the Aussie system ;)

Dave

Probably a daft question but is the indigenous Aboriginal vote monolithically Labor?

Dave

Ha, the UK would fit into Kalgoorlie (80,773 voters) 9.38 times ;). Canny bit of  red  on the map were it Labor

Dave

The aboriginal vote is largely Labor, but there was a swing to the Libs in the seat of Lingiari. This is largely to do with the support of the isolated communities of the "intervention".

One thing to note, while the sitting members are getting 60/40 - 70/30 splits on the pre-poll and postal votes. The only incument seat where it's close is.... Bennelong, where the split is in favour of Howard 51/49.

What's the difference between FORMAL and INFORMAL votes?

Dave

Formal votes are votes that have been correctly cast - all boxes numbered correctly - Informal votes are those that have been cast incorrectly and will not be counted.

I notice only Gladesville West has swung in his favor on two-party preferences. Must have kissed a few more babies down that way ;D

Dave

Ah, what we call 'spoilt' ballots

Dave

Not yet. But it is actually getting tighter (it's now tighter than Bennelong) - and there many more ballots than average left to tally. Still, probably, a Lib hold.

Hell, all of Nunavut fits into Kalgoorlie!

Libs are now ahead in Swan, by the whole of 2 votes!

Swan WA LIB advantage of 2 votes
Bowman QLD LIB advantage of 27 votes
Dickson QLD ALP advantage 234 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 501 votes
McEwen VIC LIB advantage 506 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 547 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage 560 votes

Re; aboriginal voters...

For the legally sad: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionTcpByPollingPlace-13745-306.htm

And look at the numbers in the remote mobile teams. Over 98% in two of them.

Re:Swan. Irons (LIB) is now ahead by 30 votes, with just absentee and provisional results left. In the last election, there were roughly 900 provisional votes and they went strongly to Labor-a trend that would probably be repeated this election as most provisional voters are younger or immigrant.

There were 6000 absentee voters, and a similar number should be expected this election in Swan, based on turnout figures. They also leant towards Labor, but less so than ordinary ballots-by a whole 0.05%. If we assume that the absentee result is the same as the ordinary result, with 6000 ballots; and that there are 900 provisional ballots, 520 of which go to the ALP TPP, the result should look something like this:

Kim Wilkie: 31,853+520=32,373+2995(49.91% of 6000)=35,368
Steve Irons: 31,383+380=31,763+3005(50.09% of 6000)=34,768

So, an ALP win of a nice, even 600 votes.

Of course, it won't be that simple, but i'm giving Labor the lead here.

At present, Peter Dutton is ahead in Dickson by 12 votes, Laming is ahead in Bowman by 29 votes.

Let's have a go at the same exercise for Dickson:


Current totals:

Dutton (LIB) 36,791
McNamara (ALP) 36,779

Provisionals 2004
Dutton (LIB) 185 (new total if added to existing 2007 total= 36,976)
McConnell (ALP) 110 (add to McNamara's total=36,889)

Absentee 2004
Dutton (LIB) 2,688 (+36,976=39,664)
McConnell (ALP) 2,062 (+36,889=38,951)

Of course, swing must be factored in, and these results are absolutely not truly indicative, but i'd say Dutton will win narrowly.

And, why not-Bowman:

Current totals:
Laming (LIB) 35,864
Young (ALP) 35,837

Provisionals 2004:

Laming (LIB) 213 (+35,864=36,077)
Webster (ALP) 180 (+35,837=36,017)

Absentee 2004:

Laming (LIB) 1,841 (+36,077=37,918)
Webster (ALP) 1,456 (+36,017=37,473)

Taking into account the swing, I reckon this one will come right down to the wire, maybe with a slight ALP win.

When will John Howard's seat be done?

Can anyone provide maps or links to maps?

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/guide/map.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/federalelection_map/index.html

Various maps of the 2004 election on 2007 boundaries and demographic maps can be found here: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/maps.shtml

And maps showing the results in each individual booth (ie; precinct) can be found here: http://www.orgburo.com/elections/

It's possible that I might draw some dodgy maps myself at some point.

It seems that the remaining 7 non-reporting booths in Melbourne are "Special Hospital Team" 1-7. Anyone know how those voted in 2004? Melbourne is interesting because the Greens are currently a whole two votes ahead of the Liberals for second.

There hasn't been an update of the count since 7pm last night.

Meaning that the 30-vote margin in Swan is, actually, only the third-smallest :)

Seemingly, the Liberals are now 2 votes ahead of the Greens. It's a bit of a shuggy boat this one ;D

Dave

Here:

1: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4650.htm

Primary: ALP 14; Lib 12; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 16; Lib 15

2: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4651.htm

Primary: ALP 25; Lib 14; Dem 1; Green 3 / TPP: ALP 27; Lib 16

3: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4652.htm

Primary: ALP 15; Lib 10; Green 1 / TPP: ALP 15; Lib 11

4: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-4653.htm

Primary: ALP 64; SA 1; Lib 60; Dem 1; Green 4 / TPP: ALP 69 / Lib 62

5: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31964.htm

Primary: ALP 49; Lib 25; Dem 2; Green 5; Ind 2; FF 2; CEC 1 / TPP: ALP 56 / Lib 30

6: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31965.htm

Primary: ALP 9; Lib 1; Green 3; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 13 / Lib 1

7: http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-12246-31966.htm

Primary: ALP 24; SA 1; Lib 7; Green 1; FF 1 / TPP: ALP 26; Lib 8

Basically, on 2004, SpHT 1 to 7 not collectively encouraging, for the Greens but given the swing against the Liberals, they should do better. Doubt if it's anywhere near enough, however

Dave

Here's the link to the 2004 Results:

http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/default.htm

Dave

Libs have almost caught up in Herbert, and have gone ahead in Dickson. But ALP is back ahead in Bowman - by the tiniest of margins.

Bowman QLD ALP advantage of 21 votes
Swan WA LIB advantage of 29 votes
Herbert QLD ALP advantage of 36 votes
Dickson QLD LIB advantage 248 votes
Solomon NT ALP advantage 427 votes
Macarthur NSW LIB advantage 481 votes
Flynn QLD ALP advantage 590 votes
Robertson ALP advantage 729 votes
La Trobe VIC LIB advantage 741 votes

McEwen is no longer "close" (0.5% swing necessary), but Robertson is now (barely)

Update: the Lib margin in Swan has gone down by 2 votes.
Update 2: Solomon is now also on the list of "close" seats.
Update 3: the Lib margin in Swan looses another vote.
Update 4: Flynn is now also a "close" seat: Nats made-up almost 3000 votes off the postals. Dickson LIB advantage slightly cut, but their advantage in La Trobe is slightly up.

Robertson, NSW and McEwen, VIC are no longer considered close with ALP ahead by 928 (50.62%) and Liberals ahead by 862 (50.52%), respectively

Nine seats remain with a swing of 0.5%:

Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 21
Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 108
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 153
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 268
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 428
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590
Macarthur, NSW: LIB ahead by 598
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 730
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 767

"If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would be praying as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats." - John Howard

...

Well, he´s got enough time now to pray for Obama and the Democrats ... ;)

Just had another look at the Bennelong results; McKew appears to have led Howard on first prefs (!) and the Green vote, one of the highest in Sydney in 2004, has almost entirely collapsed.
Also seems that Turnbull polled, just, 50% of first prefs.

The green vote in Bennelong was due to the candidate Andrew Wilke - he was a former intelligence official who revealed that he knew the intelligence surrounding the Iraq War was faulty, and there was political pressure both internal and external.

This time, he ran for Senate in Tasmania (but wasn't elected, as he was second on the Greens' list). Of course, some of the Green decline may also be seen as a rally behind McKew by the left to oust Howard, which shows how little even Australians understand their own electoral system. (There was never any risk that the Greens would outpoll the ALP in first preferences; the only seat with a realistic possibility of that happening in the future is Wentworth.)

It's more symbolic.

Neither Labor nor the Greens had a chance of winning Bennelong in 2004, but when your seat is competitive - then people will generally make a decision between the big two.

Liberals currently ahead of the Greens in Melbourne by 239 votes but with only 69.5% counted, it ain't over yet. Lots of absent ballots et al.

Dave

When we can we expect all counting to be done and dusted? Am I right in thinking all votes must be cast prior to (pre-poll), on (absent, provisional) or received by (postal) election day?

Dave

Yeah - the AEC said Friday afternoon for the House.

I just noticed the pre-poll votes in Bennelong favoured Howard by a grand total of 9 votes (TPP). The swing remains 5.7%

Just hope the 19.3% that remains to be counted doesn't favour Howard enough to turn Bennelong his way

Dave

Macarthur, NSW is no longer considered close with the Liberals ahead by 718 (50.51%)

Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 10 (50.01%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Swan: LIB ahead by 146 (50.11%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 207 (50.13%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590 (50.42%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 665 (50.44%)
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 738 (50.46%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 428 (50.47%)

Tightening in Solomon. Slight tightening in Swan and La Trobe.

Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 10 (50.01%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Swan: LIB ahead by 132 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 207 (50.13%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590 (50.42%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 660 (50.44%)
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 737 (50.46%)

How long will it be until we get final results?

Including the seante, i'd guess tuesday.

When are they starting to count provisionals (so far, none have been counted for the entire country)?

Slight increase of ALP margin in Herbert:

Herbert, QLD: ALP ahead by 27 (50.02%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Swan: LIB ahead by 187 (50.14%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 207 (50.13%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 396 (50.23%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590 (50.42%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 661 (50.44%)
Corangamite, VIC: ALP ahead by 764 (50.47%)

Update: Swan's LIB lead grows.
Update2: Swan's LIB lead grows again. Herbert slightly tighter.
Update3: ALP lead in Corangamite is a bit up
Update4: McEwen is back on the "close" list - and pretty close, actually.

Yes, thus far, absent votes counted in McEwen have split pretty comfortably (61.26% on TPP) in Labor's favour

Dave

Corangamite is out of the "close" zone - ALP's lead is up to 0.54% (nearly 900 votes).  ALP lead is almost doubled in Bowman (though zero times 2 is still zero :)  ), Herbert is now in LIB column (though still barely), but  LIB lead is slightly down in both Dickson and La Trobe. Still very close in awfully many places.

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 64 (50.04%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 116 (50.08%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 164 (50.10%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 187 (50.14%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 396 (50.23%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 590 (50.42%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 603 (50.39%)


BTW, first provisionals got counted (so far 400 ballots about half of them from Tasmania, breaking out nicely in ALP favor).

Robertson, NSW is currently but 0.01% away from being "close", so it could be joining McEwen

Dave

A few minor adjustments. In both Swan and Herbert LIB lead grows a bit, in La Trobe it shrinks slightly. ALP lead is slightly up in Flynn

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 65 (50.04%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 116 (50.08%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 136 (50.08%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 186 (50.14%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
Robertson, NT: ALP aheady by 296 (50.18%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 396 (50.23%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 582 (50.37%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 636 (50.44%)

Interestingly enough, in La Trobe ALP leads on the ordinary ballots, on the absents and even on the pre-polls, but the Lib has over a 1000 vote margin on the postals. Provisionals remain to be counted.

update: minor cut to LIB leads in Herbert, Swan, and Dickson. Dickson now is the closest it has been in a while.
update2: Robertson is once again on the list

Would be amusing if Herbert (ie; Townsville) turned out to be the only Coalition seat left in northern Queensland.

Dickson, La Trobe, Herbert all slightly tighter, Swan's LIB lead still growing.

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 106 (50.07%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 116 (50.08%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 239 (50.17%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
Robertson, NT: ALP aheady by 296 (50.18%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 396 (50.23%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 544 (50.34%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 636 (50.44%)

This election was almost a week ago. It takes that long to count results? I'd expect it from somewhere like Liberia, but not Australia.

Update: A few minor changes here and there. McEwen's margin has gone a tiny bit up, Robertson's a bit down.

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 106 (50.07%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 116 (50.08%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 239 (50.17%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 262 (50.27%)
Robertson, NT: ALP ahead by 273 (50.17%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 544 (50.34%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 635 (50.44%)

Update: McEwen LIB lead is up again.

Combination of mandatory voting, lots of opportunities to vote outside of the polling place (absents, pre-polls, postals, etc.), complicated electoral system and lack of gerrymander.

What you normally get the first night everywhere is, actually, an unoficial uncertified tally -  but leads are generally so big, you can trust them.  The official tally will come much later - but (almost) nobody has to wait.

Here there are many votes that are not yet delivered on the election night (eg absents and postals will only arrive to their districts a few days later)  - as the voting is mandatory a lot of people are using those possibilities. Furthermore, the electoral system is rather complicated - technically, you can't even formally count the votes until you receive them all. Of course, in practice the top two are known - so they do count, but they can't really do the elimination, etc. - and it matters for the Senate. Finally, because of the lack of gerrymander you get a lot of close districts - it's simply not final till its final.

BTW, when it was close in 2000, we had to wait a lot longer then just a week :) Sam in Washington state, quite recently, wasn't it?

McKew declares victory in Bennelong

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/01/2106949.htm

With most absent, pre-poll and postal ballots counted, there is little chance Howard can win once they and the provisionals are all done and dusted. McKew, currently, leads Howard 51.25% to 48.75% with 92.3% of votes counted

Dave

I find it quite interesting that postal votes can arrive later. We (DK) only include votes that has arrived in the polling station on the day of the election (which gives a final general result no later that 2AM when the election closes at 8PM). The Aussies for sure have constructed a complicated system :)

That's the law here too. However, we shouldn't forget that postal delivery in rural Australia, as also in the US, may take more than a day or two.

Minor increase of ALP lead in Solomon

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 60 (50.04%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 106 (50.07%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 116 (50.08%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 239 (50.17%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 243 (50.15%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 267 (50.28%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 635 (50.44%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 710 (50.44%)

update: Robertson is getting slightly tighter - but relatively few votes left to count.
update2: La Trobe is now almost safe.

The Returning Officer for Herbert, QLD says that the result will not be known for at least another week. Is there no statutory cut-off date by which votes must be received and counted after the election?

Dave

76 divisions are yet to start counting absent ballots; only 6 have started to count provisionals; while 14 are yet to start counting postals

Dave

Indeed, Scarlett O'Hara would be describing the count as being as slow as molasses in January :P

Dave

No.

But in practice it must be done before Parliament resumes next year. Probably sometime in late January/early February.

Rudd's been sworn in - he's officially the 26th Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia. So the voting is just to get everything in order.

I appreciate because of just how isolated rural Australian communities are that there be a reasonable period of grace for ballots to be received and counted

I don't quite understand why it should take so long in metropolitan and coastal-fringe; in effect, the vast majority of divisions

Dave

As of 2.30PM:

Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 108 (50.07%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 159 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 160 (50.10%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 233 (50.14%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 221 (50.16%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 183 (50.18%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 655 (50.44%)
La Trobe, VIC: LIB ahead by 755 (50.47%)

Swan's suddenly very close once again. Some tightening elsewhere as well (except Dickson, where the Lib lead grows) and La Trobe (which is now off the "close" list).

Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 29 (50.02%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 108 (50.07%)
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 142 (50.14%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 150 (50.08%)
Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 155 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 192 (50.12%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 237 (50.14%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 579 (50.38%)

update: Dickson is just ever so slightly more comfortable for Libs. W/ almost all votes counted, this one looks to be done.

As of 9:53:57PM:

Bowman, QLD: ALP ahead by 90 (50.06%) - 91.6% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 213 (50.11%) - 93.2% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 191 (50.12%) - 95.4% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 249 (50.14%) - 94.5% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 158 (50.16%) - 89.6% counted
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 281 (50.18%) - 92% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 356 (50.25%) - 91% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 584 (50.38%) - 91.9% counted

As of 2.30PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 125 (50.08%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 89 (50.09%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 217 (50.11%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 222 (50.13%)*
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 416 (50.27%)

* Labor's Fiona McNamara has formerly conceded defeat in Dickson

As of 9:48:18PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 119 (50.07%) - 93.9% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 89 (50.09%) - 91% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 194 (50.10%) - 94.2% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%) - 95.9% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%) - 95% counted*
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%) - 92.2% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%) - 92.4% counted*
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 430 (50.27%) - 92.5% counted

* Labor's Belinda Neal has claimed victory in Robertson
* Liberal Steve Irons has claimed victory in Swan

Do they not do electronic counting in Australia? I appreciate the size of the country and the remoteness, but it's got a population a third that of the UK and good transport links.

This is not Liberia. Why's it taking so long?

No, hand counting.

I actually can't understand why it's taking nearly 2 weeks to count these things, but a few things do come to mind
 
* The AEC employs a certain number of counters for a certain number of days, I would say they're down to absolute BARE minimum.
* Party scrutineers must be there, so the count is not continuous, the ballots arrive at a certain point, but they must wait until all scrutineers can arrive, since they volunteer.

So it's a combination of AEC staff, scrutineers and lengthy ballot arrival times. Australia is a long way from most places people.

I'm actually enjoying the suspense :) in these 'close' seats. I'm more optimistic for Labor in McEwen (LIB 50.04%) than I am for them in Bowman (LIB 50.07%), where Labor had been leading until yesterday

Labor has conceded Dickson and I don't see them regaining the lead in Herbert. Solomon could go down to the wire; though Labor, thus far, has increased it's lead on today's count

ABC has called Flynn for Labor

Dave

As of 2.30PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 82 (50.04%)
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 112 (50.07%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 186 (50.18%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)*
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 439 (50.28%)

* Liberal MP Peter Lindsay has claimed victory in Herbert; Labor's George Colbran having conceded yesterday

Things suddenly get a lot closer in Bowman:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 41 (50.03%)
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 82 (50.04%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%)
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 194 (50.19%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 475 (50.30%)

As of 9:56:28 PM:

Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 50 (50.03%) - 95.1% counted
McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 77 (50.04%) - 95.4% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 225 (50.14%) - 95.9% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 258 (50.15%) - 95.0% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 194 (50.19%)* - 92.2% counted
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 293 (50.18%) - 92.2% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.24%) - 92.4% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 478 (50.30%) - 93.3% counted

* Labor's Damien Hale has claimed victory in Solomon; though the CLP, who are resting their hopes on Monday's full distribution of preferences, are yet to concede

It looks as though Bowman and McEwen will go down to the wire; Solomon may yet close too

Tomorrow (7th December) is the deadline by which postal votes must be received. To be valid they must have been posted on or before election day

Dave

In morning counting LIB now ahead in Bowman by 105.

Basically, there's just four seats to decide now. Two Liberal seats which are in doubt Bowman and McEwen with Labor leading in Robertson and Solomon

ABC has called Robertson and Solomon for Labor giving them 83 seats; the Coalition are on 63 but are tipped to hold Bowman and McEwen

I did some number crunching for all 8 close seats this evening and my predictions, allowing for ballots received but not counted as of yesterday :

Bowman: LIB 50.02% / ALP 48.98%

931 provisionals outstanding, most of which will be thrown out and 749 postals yet to be received. Provisionals and postals are favouring Labor but will they change the outcome?

McEwen: LIB 50.02% / ALP 48.98%

958 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Robertson: ALP 50.10% / LIB 49.90%

1098 postals yet to be received, which should favour the Liberals but will they change the outcome?

Dickson: LIB 50.14% / ALP 49.86%

441 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Solomon: ALP 50.19% / LIB 49.81%

390 postals yet to be received, which should favour the CLP but not enough to change the result

Flynn: ALP 50.22% / NAT 49.78%

1554 postals yet to be received, which should heavily favour the Nationals but not enough to change the result

Herbert: LIB 50.26% / ALP 49.74%

1097 postals yet to be received - advantage Liberal

Swan: LIB 50.27% / ALP 49.73%

952 postals yet to be received, which favour the Liberals; while there are 256 provisionals outstanding, which favour Labor

Bold denotes level of confidence.

In sum: Bowman and Robertson to go right down to the wire; as could McEwen but I'm, relatively, confident the Liberals will hold it unless there is a surge in support for Labor from late postals

Dave

Afterthought: I should be confident about Labor winning Robertson. Everybody else seems to be ;)

Dave

ABC now predicts 84 seats for Labor and 64 for the Coalition. The Liberal lead in McEwen has narrowed :) to 22 votes

Dave

As of 3.00PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 22 (50.01%)
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 102 (50.06%)
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%)
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%)
Solomon, NT: ALP aheady by 193 (50.19%)
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%)
Herbert, QLD: LIB ahead by 304 (50.19%)
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 572 (50.36%)

As of 9:18:43 PM:

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 32 (50.02%) - 95.99% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 102 (50.06%) - 95.35% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 426 (50.27%) - 94.93% counted

The new morning brings us minor rechecking in McEwen and a few more votes counted in Bowman. Still Lib lead in both.

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 26 (50.01%) - 96.00% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 97 (50.06%) - 95.43% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 392 (50.24%) - 94.93% counted

Update: a few more votes counted in McEwen and Flynn. Both getting tighter.

This is the low-down on McEwen:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/with-about-500-votes-to-go-bailey-leads-by-22/2007/12/07/1196813026887.html

The Australian Electoral Commission said last night there were a further 58 postals, 57 pre-polls and 200-300 absentees to be counted today. Another batch of 100 absentee ballots should be counted on Monday.

Now with the Libs currently ahead by 26, obviously some have already been counted but it's plausible that Labor can pull it off if absentee ballots continue to break in their favour to the degree that they have.

However, I think Labor will need a bigger break in their favour among outstanding absentee ballots to win. As of now, my guess is a Liberal win by 15 votes. If Labor pull it off, it could well be by even less

Dave

BTW, I've had so much fun :) following the Australian count that I'd like to see AV for UK parliamentary elections

Dave

Maxine McKew currently ahead of John Howard in Bennelong with 51.37% (+0.03%)

Dave

Flynn is rapidly getting closer: all those postals, I guess.

McEwen, VIC: LIB ahead by 26 (50.01%) - 96.00% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 97 (50.06%) - 95.43% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 286 (50.18%) - 94.94% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Update: continuous minor revisions to Flynn tally. Seems to be tightening further.

ALP is ahead in McEwen!!

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 107 (50.07%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 286 (50.18%) - 94.95% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Apparently, the McEwen count is done!  Of course, there will still be some re-checks - and w/ this margin anything can still happen.  That's quite a photo-finish!

You have got to be kidding me.  7 votes?

Oh, and it is simply insane for the vote count to continue that long in a modern democracy.

Last update before going to bed:

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 7 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 94 (50.06%) - 95.45% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 182 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - 92.19% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 268 (50.17%) - 94.95% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Not only that but McEwen has the third largest electorate by enrolment in Australia - only the two ACT divisions, Canberra and Fraser, have larger electorates. The Liberals are to formally request a recount


It's Australia! Postal votes can be received up to 13 days after election day, but these votes must have been posted on or before election day

Dave

I'm quite sure that the result in McEwen is the closest victory in Australian Political history. Well that's what I heard on ABC News last night. The winning candidate used one of the worst puns ever, "I can't believe I won by 7 votes, when Kevin was running as Kevin07". Or it was something very familar to that.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/09/2113580.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

Seemingly, the second closest. Election expert Malcome Mackerras says that, in 1919, Ballarat was won by a single vote

Dave

Except that that result wasn't allowed to stand (as Mackerras should know). O/c it's possible that this one won't either.

In the 2002 Irish election in Limerick West the final seat was contested between two members of Fine Gael and was won by a single vote (after days and days of recounting).

Of course given the size of both division's respective electorates this is nothing in comparsion.

New week, new updates (mostly rechecking). Flynn is getting closer and closer. So is Bowman.

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 87 (50.05%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 183 (50.10%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 202 (50.20%) - 92.19% counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 207 (50.13%) - 94.96% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - 96.05% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

update. Some rechecking in McEwen. ALP lead is down to 6 votes!
update2: further tightening in Flynn.
update3: minor update in Solomon

How is counting in McEwen finished with 96.31% counted? (Or is that turnout, as in percent of the electorate counted?)

Yes, this is turnout. The figures the report for all electorates are % of the total number of registered voters counted.

That's 96.31% as a percentage of all eligible voters whose votes have been counted. Yeah.. so turnout.

McEwen is down to 5 votes, and Bailey (LIB) is challenging the result.

From what I've heard the Coalition needs a 1.5% swing or in other words 10 seats to gain Government in 2010. That's what I heard on The Insiders last Sunday. And history suggests that the Australian people don't kick out Government's after a term.

As of 9:47:33 PM:

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 81 (50.05%) - 95.44% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 185 (50.11%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - DECLARED
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 212 (50.13%) - 94.96% counted
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 221 (50.13%) - DECLARED  
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 280 (50.19%) - 93.22% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 352 (50.22%) - 94.11% counted

Revised (almost final) pendulum (the swing to Coalition from the previous election in brackets):

Starting from ultra-safe labor (over 20% TPP swing necessary to overturn):

1. Batman VIC 75.95% ALP (-4.63%)
2. Grayndler NSW 74.91% ALP (-3.73%)
3. Throsby NSW 73.51% ALP (-9.69%)
4. Wills VIC 72.34% ALP (-5.44%)
5. Melbourne VIC 72.19% ALP (-1.05%)
6. Gellibrand VIC 71.59% ALP (-6.64%)
7. Gorton VIC 71.44% ALP (-6.54%)
8. Scullin VIC 70.87% ALP (-6.08%)
9. Chifley NSW 70.60% ALP (-8.63%)
10. Watson NSW 70.38% ALP (-5.82%)

Quite notably, in all of these seats other than Gorton the election night ALP share was higher.

Very safe labor (over 15% TPP swing necessary):

11. Port Adelaide SA 69.7%% (-6.84%)
12. Sydney NSW 69.43% ALP (-2.05%)
13. Calwell VIC 69.33% LP (-11.14%)
14. Fowler NSW 68.21% ALP (-4.89%)
15. Blaxland NSW 68.13% ALP (-2.90%)
16. Cunningham NSW 68.09 ALP (-6.47%)
17. Reid NSW 66.91% ALP (-4.83%)
18. Hunter NSW 65.94% ALP (-4.85%)
19. Newcastle NSW 65.92% ALP (-6.83%)
20. Denison TAS 65.63% ALP (-2.34%)
21. Lalor VIC 65.54% ALP (-6.75%)
22. Maribyrnong VIC 65.34% ALP (-5.87%)
23. Werriwa NSW 65.24% ALP (-8.30%)
24. Fraser ACT 65.09% ALP (-1.77%)

Presumably Throsby has the highest primary vote for the ALP?

Safe labor (over 10% swing necessary):

25. Shortland NSW 64.79% ALP (-5.55%)
26. Oxley QLD 64.13% ALP (-7.01%)
27. Prospect NSW 63.47% ALP (-7.07%)
28. Kingsford Smith NSW 63.04% ALP (-4.31%)
29. Hotham VIC 62.98% ALP (-5.58%)
30. Charlton NSW 62.87% ALP (-4.47%)
31. Capricornia QLD 62.65% ALP (-8.64%)
32. Griffith QLD 62.29% ALP (-3.81%)
33. Barton NSW 62.16% ALP (-4.59%)
34. Rankin QLD 61.72 ALP (-8.74%)
35. Canberra ACT 61.67 ALP (-1.76%)
36. Holt VIC 61.51% ALP (-10.00%)
37. Lingiari NT 61.17% ALP (-3.51%)
38. Banks NSW 61.09% ALP (-7.87%)

Looks like that. But there are several that are very close. Throsby has ALP primary at 64.98%, Fowler is next w/ 64.24%, and there are a few others in the 63%-64% range.

Strong Labor (over 5% swing required):

39. Perth WA 59.04% ALP (-2.31%)
40. Fremantle WA 59.03% ALP (-1.27%)
41. Jagajaga VIC 59.02% ALP (-4.62%)
42. Corio VIC 58.93% ALP (-3.29%)
43. Richmond NSW 58.82 ALP (-7.38%)
44. Lyons TAS 58.80% ALP (-5.12%)
45. Lilley QLD 58.59% ALP (-3.19%)
46. Adelaide SA 58.50% ALP (-7.17%)
47. Bruce VIC 58.33% ALP (-4.85%)
48. Ballarat VIC 58.17 ALP (-5.94%)
49. Makin SA 57.69% ALP (-8.62%) (gain)
50. Isaacs VIC 57.64% ALP (-6.16%)
51. Lowe NSW 57.37% ALP (-4.34%)
52. Chisholm VIC 57.35% ALP (-4.70%)
53. Maquarie NSW 57.06% ALP (-6.59%)
54. Melbourne Ports VIC 56.97% ALP (-3.23%)
55. Parramatta NSW 56.89% ALP (-7.72%) (notional gain)
56. Lindsay NSW 56.80% ALP (-9.72%) (gain)
57. Brisbane QLD 56.77% ALP (-2.83%)
58. Wakefield SA 56.64% ALP (-7.31%) (gain)
59. Bendigo VIC 56.18% ALP (-5.22%)
60. Brand WA 55.62% ALP (-0.92%)
61. Hindmarsh SA 55.06% ALP (-5.00%)

Marginal labor (between 1% and 5% swing necessary):

62. Moreton QLD 54.69% ALP (-7.52%) (gain)
63. Bonner QLD 54.55% ALP (- 5.06%) (gain)
64. Franklin TAS 54.48 ALP (+3.11%)
65. Blair QLD 54.47% ALP (-10.16%) (gain)
66. Kingston SA 54.41% ALP (-4.48%) (gain)
67. Leichhardt QLD 54.00% ALP (-14.26%) (gain)
68. Dobell NSW 53.90% ALP (-8.74%) (gain)
69. Forde QLD 53.60% ALP (-15.12%) (gain)
70. Longman QLD 53.59% ALP (-10.34%) (gain)
71. Eden-Monaro NSW 53.30% ALP (-6.57%) (gain)
72. Dawson QLD 53.18% ALP (-13.17%) (gain)
73. Page NSW 52.36% ALP (-7.83%) (gain)
74. Petrie QLD 52.04% ALP (-9.49%) (gain)
75. Deakin VIC 51.46% ALP (-6.43%) (gain)
76. Braddon TAS 51.44% ALP (-2.57%) (gain)
______________________________ ______Necessary for majority

77. Bennelong NSW 51.40% (-5.53%) ALP (gain)
78. Hasluck WA 51.18% ALP (-3.00%) (gain)
79. Bass TAS 51.00% ALP (-3.63%) (gain)

Labor super-marginals (less than 1% swing required to overturn):

80. Corangamite VIC 50.82% ALP (-6.14%) (gain)
81. Solomon NT 50.19% ALP (-3.00%) (gain)
82. Flynn QLD 50.13% ALP (-7.85%)  (gain?)
83. Robertson NSW 50.11% ALP (-6.98) (gain?)
84. McEwen VIC 50.00% ALP (-6.42%) (gain??)

Coalition super-marginal (less than 1% swing required)

85. Bowman QLD 50.05% LIB (-8.85%) (hold?)
86. Dickson QLD 50.13% LIB (-8.76%)
87. Swan WA 50.19% LIB (+0.27%) (gain)
88. Herbert QLD 50.22% LIB (-6.02%)
89. LaTrobe VIC 50.51% LIB (-5.32%)
90. Macarthur NSW 50.72% LIB (-10.43%)

Coalition marginals (1% to 5% required to overturn):

91. Sturt SA 51.06% LIB (-5.74%)
92. Cowper NSW 51.23% NAT (-5.52%)
93. Striling WA 51.29% LIB (-0.75%)
94. Paterson NSW 51.51% LIB (-4.81%)
95. Hinckler QLD 51.68% NAT (-6.66%)
96. Cowan WA 51.72% LIB (+2.50) (gain)
97. Hughes NSW 52.16% LIB (-6.39%)
98. Kalgoorlie WA 52.60% LIB (-3.70%)
99. Boothby SA 52.93% LIB (-2.44%)
100. Fairfax QLD 53.01% LIB (-9.40%)
101. Fisher QLD 53.16% LIB (-7.82%)
102. Wentworth NSW 53.67% LIB (+1.16%)
103. Ryan QLD 53.77% LIB (-6.65%)
104. Dunkley VIC 54.10% LIB (-5.28%)
105. Gilmore NSW 54.12% LIB (-5.29%)
106. Hume NSW 54.16% LIB (-8.68%)
107. Grey SA 54.40% LIB (-9.42%)
108. Greenway NSW 54.49% LIB (-6.86%)
109. McMillan VIC 54.69% LIB (-0.30%)

Strong Coalittion (over 5% requird to overturn):

110. Aston VIC 55.06% LIB (-7.17%)
111. North Sydney NSW 55.45% LIB (-4.59%)
112. Canning WA 55.63% LIB (-3.91%)
113. Forrest WA 55.83% LIB (-4.62%)
114. Gippsland VIC 55.91% NAT (-1.79%)
115. Goldstein VIC 55.97% LIB (-4.06%)
116. Casey VIC 56.00% LIB (-5.35)
117. Menzies VIC 56.10% LIB (-4.57%)
118. Cook NSW 56.53%  LIB (-6.75%)
119. Mayo SA 57.01% LIB (-6.58%)
120. Higgins VIC 57.16% LIB (-1.60%)
121. Wannon VIC 57.47% LIB (-4.90%)
122. Groom QLD 58.23% LIB (-10.58%)
123. Flinders VIC 58.24% LIB (-2.87%)
124. Wide Bay QLD 58.55% NAT (-3.66%)
125. Lyne NSW 58.57 NAT (-4.84%)
126. Tangney WA 58.63% LIB (-3.12%)
127. McPherson QLD 58.92% LIB (-5.02%)
128. Berowra NSW 58.94% LIB (-4.88%)
129. Moore WA 59.16% LIB (-1.67%)
130. Pearce WA 59.20% LIB (-3.74%)
131. Indi VIC 59.22% LIB (-7.07%)
132. Warringah NSW 59.38% LIB (-1.91%)
133. Barker SA 59.47% LIB (-10.41%)
134. Kooyong VIC 59.54% LIB (-0.04%)
135. Fadden QLD 59.80 LIB (-6.10%)

Safe Coalition (over 10% swing required):

136. Farrer NSW 61.20% LIB (-5.43%)
137. Mitchell NSW 61.58% LIB (-9.10%)
138. Calare NSW 61.94% NAT (+0.53%)
139. Mackelar NSW 62.47% LIB (-2.99%)
140.Parkes NSW 63.02% NAT (-4.54%)
141. Bradfield NSW 63.67% LIB (-3.88%)
142. Curtin WA 63.77% LIB (-0.85%)
143. Moncrieff QLD 64.01% LIB (-5.52%)
144. Maranoa QLD 64.45% NAT (-6.60%)

Very safe coalition (over 15% swing required)

145. Riverina NSW 66.23% NAT (-4.62%)
146. O'Connor WA 66.54% LIB (-3.85%)
147. Murray VIC 68.29% LIB (-5.79%)

Ultra-safe Coalition (over 20% swing required):

148. Mallee VIC 71.28% NAT (-3.47%)

Ultra-safe independent

149.  New England NSW 74.33% Ind. (swing against NAT 2.95%)

Very safe independent

150. Kennedy QLD 66.22% Ind. (swing towards ALP 2.61%)

Recount scheduled in McEwen. In Bowman the LIB margin is down to 72 votes (50.04%). The rest seem likely to have been resolved.

Updates go on :). Swan's margin nearly halved. Bowman and Flynn are back up. Dickson "undeclared".

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 82 (50.05%) - 95.46% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 166 (50.11%) - 93.22% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 184 (50.11%) - 95.74% counted
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - DECLARED
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 217 (50.13%) -  - 96.05 counted
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 270 (50.17%) - 94.99% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 350 (50.21%) - 94.11% counted

Don't see much point in me doing a declared result tally, if the AEC are going to declare seats only to undeclare them as in the case of, for example, Dickson and Isaacs

Dave

Could Bowman be still in play?

McEwen, VIC: ALP ahead by 6 (50.00%) - 96.31% counted
Bowman, QLD: LIB ahead by 60 (50.04%) - 95.48% counted
Swan, WA: LIB ahead by 164 (50.11%) - 93.22% counted
Robertson, NSW: ALP ahead by 184 (50.11%) - DECLARED
Solomon, NT: ALP ahead by 196 (50.19%) - DECLARED
Dickson, QLD: LIB ahead by 217 (50.13%) - DECLARED
Flynn, QLD: ALP ahead by 270 (50.17%) - 94.99% counted
Herbert, WA: LIB ahead by 340 (50.21%) - 94.11% counted

Not unless there is a seismic split in Labor's favour from the 170 pre-polls that, seemingly, remain to be counted http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionDecScrutinyProgress-13745-155.htm

In Bowman, the splits are as follows:

Ordinary: ALP 50.18% (34,063) / LIB 49.82% (33,816)
Absent: ALP 52.42% (1,680) / LIB 47.58% (1,525)
Provisionals: ALP 54.10% (66) / LIB 45.90% (56)
Pre-polls: LIB 53.96% (3,283) / ALP 46.04% (2,801)
Postals: ALP 50.10% (2,400) / LIB 49.90% (2,390)

Total: LIB 50.04% (41,070) / ALP 49.96% (41,010)

Assuming those 170 postals split as they have been doing, this will add 92 to the Liberals and 78 to Labour: LIB 41,162 / ALP 41,088 - LIB majority of 74

Labor needs those pre-polls to split in their favour 68% (116) to 32% (54) to win by 2 votes. Highly unlikely :(, to say the least

Dave

Don't forget re-checking :) - in any case, that's where most of the recent action has been. Unlikely, of course, but not impossible.  In any case, if anything changes it will be in McEwen or in Bowman - the rest are pretty much done.

True. Apparently, the result in McEwen is not expected to be known until next week

Dave

Heard that McEwen is Liberal by twelve votes.

Yep. And that seems to be pretty much it.

Though McEwen could yet to go to the High Court

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/12/18/2121466.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

Still, Labor has won with a 16-seat majority, at least :)

Dave

Fina; distribution of preferences is tomorrow. Until they're ALL done, I'm not willing to agree.

Melbourne: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-228.htm

Two party preferred: ALP 47,905 (54.70%) / Greens 39,678 (45.30%)

Not sure why this is ??? given that the Liberals are on 20,577 (23.49%) and the Greens on 19,967 (22.80%) in the first preference vote

Dave

Because the preference flows from the Democrats and the SEP helped them leapfrog the Libs and quite a few Lib preferences would have gone to the Greens out of protest.

That's kind of odd. The Greens must have gotten preferences from the Socialists, the Socialist Alliance and from the Independent candidate. Though it wouldn't be enough for them to gain 20,000 votes though. So they must have gotten preferences from the Libs, like my Gran did. Speaking of my Gran, I actually told her how to vote in the election ;).

I can understand that but it shows that the Liberals are in second place on first preference vote not the Greens. Given that shouldn't the Liberals be facing off against Labor in the two-party preferred count?

Dave

No, it's all based on where the preferences flow to, and their final destination. It's a step by step process.

So they must reallocate the votes of the candidate with the lowest number of first preferences, second lowest, and so on. Is it a rare occurrence for the third placed candidate to reach the final two?

Dave

Yes.

It's rare for anyone but the major parties to be in contention, the Greens and the Lib primary is separated by only 0.7% - which is very odd for second and third place.

That's what happened when the Greens won the Cunningham by-election (well, sort of; there was no Liberal candidate, and that was credited with giving the Greens the victory). Presumably there are a lot of socially liberal or else environmentally concerned Liberal voters even in a meltdown.

For the record, this was the Greens' first second-place finish in a general election, and the first time any minor party has done so since the Democrats in the late 1980s in some Adelaide seats. (I think One Nation didn't manage second anywhere.)

Ah yes, the Cunningham byelection, I lived in that seat at the time.

Not only was there no Lib candidate, all the other parties preferenced the Greens ahead of Labor.

Not true; The Democrats came with a whisker of winning the Division of Mayo in 1998.

You're right. I am not well-versed in Australian electoral history (although it was 3.5%, more than a whisker).

Trust me, for a seat like that to get even that close to Downer is a "whisker"

This was also the case in the Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections last year:
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stateby2007resultAlbertParkDistrict.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stateby2007resultWilliamstownDistrict.html

No Liberal candidate - the two most popular parties were the Greens and Labor, however unlike Cunningham, the ALP hung onto the seats.


One Nation came first in Blair in 1998 when Pauline Hanson contested that seat herself - that was on primary vote figures. The ALP came second and the Liberals third. After distributing preferences from the Nationals, and other candidates, the Liberals drew in front of the ALP and their preferences resulted in the Liberal candidate, Cameron Thompson, being elected.

One Nation also won 11 state seats in the Queensland Parliament in 1998, right before their dramatic implossion.