Talk Elections

because I thought it'd be a good idea to have two separate threads.

Will the entrance poll results be discussed in here?  Or is it only for the real results?

do what's in your heart, kid.

I don't know if this is the place to put it, but MSNBC says that Clinton campaign is expecting second.

Interesting....

Nah, it's just spin. If she comes first then can then claim that she did better than expected. If she comes second they can then pass off (or try to) a bad result as the expected one. And if she comes third, they can attempt to pass off a fiasco as being merely slightly worse than expected.

When are we supposed to start seeing results? As soon as individual precincts are done voting, when the entire caucus is over, or do we just get the entire thing from the Iowa Democratic party at once?

When does it start? 7PM?

As I posted in another thread:

Link:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/03/545314.aspx


Presumably the entrance polls will come out *very* soon after the caucuses are called to order.

Don't know exactly when real results will come out, but here's a thread from 2004 discussing Iowa results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=426.15

and zorkpolitics posted the first results (13% of precincts reporting in) at 8:47pm Eastern.  Also, this blog post from National Review:

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTY0OGJjMGUwYzNkNmFlMWYwN2Y3YjBjOTk5MWIzNTg=

has 32% of precincts reporting at 8:54 Eastern back in 2004.  Don't know if the caucus start time was the same back then, and don't know if the GOP results would come out on a similar timeline.

Found this from 2004:

http://www.johnson-county.com/auditor/voter/caucus04.htm


(Presumably, they're talking about Central Time there.)

So that means that four years ago, the actual results started coming out fast just ~1hr 15 min. or so after the caucuses started.

Bill Richardson just went on CNN and announced no second-flow endorsement.

I hear we will probably get the Republican results in first.

Yeah, that'd make sense, since it's just a straw poll. I'd imagine the Democratic vote for president takes 10 or 20 minutes, depending on how many people are there.

eraserhead-almost certainly, due to the multi-staged process the Democrats use.
lief-the fastest take about 20 minutes. They can go for over two hours.

Really? Wow. Does that include the other issues they vote on, after the presidential candidate?

Hugh, who will you be voting for this time around?

:P

Yep. That doesnt mean the results are know after the presidential nomination, though...

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Also, the caucus guidelines specifically tell the precinct captains to tall the toll-free results hotline before they proceed to other business.

I was thinking of voting Dean, but I think Edwards would be better because he can win Kentucky but Dean couldn't.

I'm glad we'll get the Republican results first. I'm very interested in seeing what they are but really they are just the appetizer tonight (so to speak).

I dont remember from previous times, but will we learn what the first results were vs. the final results...after the below 15% people were asked to pick 2nd choices

Politico says their sources say Dodd told Fox that if he doesn't get fourth tonight "he'll be doing to Hartford".

In other words, Dodd will be "doing to Hartford"...

Oops, "going" to Hartford.

WOI in Des Moines just mentioned that there is a possible under the table "deal" between Dodd, Edwards and Clinton that Dodd and Edwards supporters will go to Clinton or Clinton and Dodd supporters will go to Edwards in 5 of the largest IA counties.

Ummm...no.....its called a typo. doing and going are a letter apart. Also, see this:

sneaky deals and betrayals across the board in Iowa....ahh the sweet scent of American Politics.

These deals mean nothing. Any 'official' line will hardly reach the front lines anyway.

Well, the caucuses have begun, according to MSNBC.

MSNBC says Jasper county will be a good indicator of things on the Democratic side.

Where are the enterance polls?

We have 3 pages of the official Iowa Democratic results thread, and yet no results? Come on, people... ;)

Fox News just reported Obama analytical polls show a 25%-30% bigger turnout than 2004.. Fox News says this could be a good night for Obama.

MSNBC: Entrance poll has Clinton and Obama fighting for first...and the republicans virtually the same.

MSNBC says turnout is at 130,000, which should mean an Edwards victory, probably.

If that exit poll is true, excuse me whilst I choke on a Cheez-it.

Overoptimistic.

Exit poll? No one has left yet.

Lol on the continuity of our news:

It's actually an entrance poll.

Haha, so true. :p

Entrance. My bad.

Fixed.

No problem being optimistic about this race. I just hate waiting for actual results to come in...

I wish they would just tell us the actual numbers from the enterance poll.

There's a Des Moines Democratic precinct meeting on C-SPAN.

With 1 precinct reporting, Edwards has 50% of the vote. :P

Whurr?

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Called for Edwards. :D

Bill Richardson is tied with Obama and Clinton!

It's an upset folks!

Congrats, Edwards fans!

_{It'll be the last time you get them.}

Im confused..what was called for Edwards...I keep flipping through counties and its all blank.

Edwards still leads with 6 precincts

Edwards 39
Clinton 34

With 5 precincts in, Edwards is now down to 36.64%.

Projecting from the trend of early returns, I anticipate Edwards to be at approximately -7066% when the day is out.

Clinton on top!

Everywhere seems to be reporting extremely high turnout...

Senator Hillary Clinton : 35.52%
Senator John Edwards : 35.15%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.12%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.21%
Precincts Reporting: 7 of 1781

Senator Hillary Clinton : 37.29%
Senator John Edwards : 36.98%
Senator Barack Obama : 23.79%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.94%
Precincts Reporting: 8 of 1781

where is the polls coming from where can I get live results like that?

Senator John Edwards : 39.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.43%
Senator Barack Obama : 26.14%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.19%
Precincts Reporting: 13 of 1781

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

39.24%....we'll take it =]

Senator John Edwards : 38.10%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 35.80%
Senator Barack Obama : 24.55%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.55%
Precincts Reporting: 16 of 1781

Richardson has a nice turnout I see.

Senator John Edwards : 38.14%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 37.29%
Senator Barack Obama : 23.31%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.25%
Precincts Reporting: 21 of 1781

Already obsolete

Senator John Edwards : 37.87%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 34.61%
Senator Barack Obama : 25.37%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.08%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.08%
Precincts Reporting: 24 of 1781

Down with the Obama scum!

Biden receives his first delegates.

Senator John Edwards : 39.22%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 33.71%
Senator Barack Obama : 25.05%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.01%
Precincts Reporting: 26 of 1781

This is not what I expected from Obama... should he be worried or is just too early?

Come on Barack... push that junk up.

Biden's cracked 1%!

Senator John Edwards : 37.88%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.81%
Senator Barack Obama : 26.31%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.85%
Precincts Reporting: 38 of 1781

Too early. It's only 26 of 1781.

Well, Obama is probably strongest in the largest precincts, which haven't reported yet. I don't know though.

How many votes do these percentages represent?  In looking at county results, it can't be very many.

Woooo! Chris Dodd!

With the latest info its only 2% of the results.

It looks like it is starting to close.

Senator John Edwards : 37.74%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.71%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.30%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.77%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.80%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.68%
Precincts Reporting: 45 of 1781

OVERTAKE CLINTON OBAMA YOU CAN DO IT

Senator Barack Obama : 28.12% woot

Obama is about to surpass Hillary.

I'm glad Dodd at least got something.

Are these rural precints?

I assume so

Yes.  Which is, perhaps, a little worrying for Edwards if he's only that far ahead in what are probably his best precincts.

Senator John Edwards : 37.42%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.85%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.61%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.52%
Precincts Reporting: 58 of 1781

Which do you think take the shortest time to count? ;)

which is fascinating. It's looking like Richardson is coming second in their place, and a deal between richardson and biden voters are coming together for richards.

Tiny caucus meetings... so yeah probably rural (western IA?).

Senator John Edwards : 36.37%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.56%
Senator Barack Obama : 28.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.97%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.09%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.57%
Uncommitted : 0.42%
Precincts Reporting: 64 of 1781

Alright it was a stupid question... I'm out of it right now.

Senator John Edwards : 37.01%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.46%
Senator Barack Obama : 28.07%
Senator Joe Biden : 2.10%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.57%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.45%
Uncommitted : 0.34%
Precincts Reporting: 76 of 1781

Biden ftw

That's it, Hillary, keep going down.

How on earth can anyone choose the Breck girl over Barack Obama?    Edwards is such a joke.

For what it's worth, no results from Des Moines County.

According to Politico Plymouth County now has the highest amount of precincts reporting, at 15%. Henderson is in second with 8%. Both of these are rural, small and in western IA.

Senator John Edwards : 36.65%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.96%
Senator Barack Obama : 28.37%
Senator Joe Biden : 2.08%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.29%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.37%
Uncommitted : 0.28%
Precincts Reporting: 91 of 1781

CNN says over half of the caucus goers were new.

wow on Edwards part.


Richardson, Dodd, and Biden have understandable numbers. They just can't get past the 15% threshold..

Clinton dropping, Edwards staying steady, Obama on the upswing.


Unsurprising.

Good job Des Moines Register.

Senator John Edwards : 37.40%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.11%
Senator Barack Obama : 27.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.93%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.91%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.32%
Uncommitted : 0.24%
Precincts Reporting: 103 of 1781

Biden is now ahead of Richardson, a beacon of light for the few Biden supporters on here. ;)

Edwards will probably get 3rd when this is all done. *sigh*

the c-span caucus has just lost Biden, and if they had've gone to richardson he'd've gotten through...

Senator John Edwards : 35.58%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.85%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.01%

BAM

Obama and Clinton close

0.84% MORE OBAMA YOU CAN DO IT

Come on Barack! Do it!

Senator John Edwards : 34.51%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.63%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.34%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.77%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.38%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.21%
Uncommitted : 0.16%
Precincts Reporting: 144 of 1781

Edwards dropping, Clinton and Obama both gaining.

Senator John Edwards : 33.71%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.25%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.93%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.25%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.18%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Precincts Reporting: 160 of 1781

Clinton almost in first now... not looking good for Edwards.

Eh...bad clinton BAD!

C'mon Edwards! Beat Clinton!

Blimey this is tense!

Come on Clinton, go crashing down!

anyone have a link to the entrance polls?

Senator John Edwards : 33.66%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.02%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.69%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.21%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.17%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Precincts Reporting: 176 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

Getting tense.

OMG!!!111 This is scary!

Senator John Edwards : 33.38%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.40%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.76%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.03%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.16%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.15%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Precincts Reporting: 191 of 1781

Richardson now over 2%... it's a frantic jockeying for fourth place between him and Biden. ;)

Glad to see Obama now consistently over 30%... was getting worried there for a bit.

It's so hard to post on this thread. :P

Senator John Edwards : 34.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.12%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.28%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.02%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.14%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Precincts Reporting: 205 of 1781

Has Dodd dropped out yet?

Soon.

GO EDWARDS GO!

I suspect Edwards to continue to drop and a major fight between Obama and Clinton.

EDWARDS!!!!!!!

Must... hold... on...

New channels have totally different numbers than we are watching...

what r they?

I think Edwards is toast... should be between Obama and Clinton...

I think we're watching the official site.

Senator John Edwards : 34.05%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.09%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.86%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.81%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.12%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Precincts Reporting: 237 of 1781

Obama is first with Clinton and Edwards fighting for 2nd....?

I don't see any reason to think that the more populated areas will be so overwhelming for Obama and Clinton.  What exactly is a populated area in IOWA? 

It's not New York, that's for sure. 

Politico says that only 2% of precincts have reported from Polk County so still alot of rural votes.

Senator John Edwards : 33.90%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.00%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.28%

nailbitting

Senator John Edwards : 34.13%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.89%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.01%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.94%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.87%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.10%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Precincts Reporting: 279 of 1781

Now I'm hearing about another enterance poll that has Obama in a landslide.

Too close...I hate it....but I cant stop watching.

Des Moines has a population of around 500,000 or so. Cedar Rapids has about 200,000 as well, IIRC. A couple of other cities have between 50,000 and 100,000 people. So there are some more populated areas.

I'd think that the entrance polls would overestimate Obama and under-estimate Edwards, but that's just random conjecture.

Senator John Edwards : 34.00%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.91%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.26%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.88%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.79%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.09%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Precincts Reporting: 296 of 1781

I THINK IM GONNA HAVE A HEART ATTACK

Edwards hanging on...

For some reason I feel very relaxed... maybe once Edwards dips below I'll start freaking out.

Right now. I predict Obama as the winner.

Senator John Edwards : 33.70%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.06%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.36%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.90%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.84%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%
Uncommitted : 0.06%
Precincts Reporting: 313 of 1781

Wow, I didn't realize how close this really is until I checked CNN's page.  Here's the current state delegate count:

Edwards: 70
Clinton: 66
Obama: 64

This thing is even more ridiculously close than the percentages tell you and could still swing wildly before the night is over.  Quite literally two votes separate Clinton and Obama.

The Sioux County results should be interesting. They voted 85% for Bush in November '04. BRTD says its full of 19th Century Dutch Calvinists (not sure if thats like Amish).

It makes sense.  Edwards is expected to get a huge chunk of the second place votes, and those aren't calculated in the entrance polls.

Might be a photo finish on this one. I'm still going with Hillary in first though.

Would Obama just knock Clinton off already?!? God!

i think edwards is doing well in the smaller precincts reporting first where lots of people are going to a second choice

I have to turn off the news...they are getting weird numbers TOTALLY different from us.

Do you have a link to the CNN results?

For what it's worth there is one precinct reporting so far that I can see in Des Moines and that is 4-2-2, Obama-CLinton-Edwards

It looks like Clinton is gaining steadily, Edwards is dropping, and Obama is remaining stagnant.

Tell me about it. In the time I wrote my first response (about Sioux County) 20 more replies had been posted.

2 More after I typed this, I'll try again

2 More

Senator John Edwards : 33.44%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.24%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.63%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.80%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.78%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.07%
Uncommitted : 0.05%
Precincts Reporting: 367 of 1781

NO I ONLY HAVE A TELEPATHIC LINK

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

New CNN state delegate count:

Edwards: 107
Clinton: 103
Obama: 101

OH GOD THIS IS CLOSE

Senator John Edwards : 33.25%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.19%
Senator Barack Obama : 31.93%


OMG

obama ftw

Senator John Edwards : 33.06%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.20%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.14%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.70%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 433 of 1781

yesss!

Eh..boo!

Finally!

Yes!!!!!!!

Barack takes second!  This is exciting...

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOO HOO!

OBAMA YOU ARE MY HERO

YOU CAN DO IT

Hillary's barrier has been breached~! She's in third. Time for her campaign to be ripped assunder

CNN is now in line with the parties, and way ahead of the Iowa GOP.

CNN ftw

Talk about a close race.

Senator John Edwards : 32.62%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.30%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.30%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.89%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.75%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.11%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 461 of 1781

Senator John Edwards : 32.53%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.47%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.25%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.85%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.76%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.10%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 486 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

lol drop out Dodd.

New state delegate count:

Edwards: 134
Clinton: 131
Obama: 131

INTENSE

Obama passes Clinton for 2nd place, LOL

Senator John Edwards : 32.53%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.47%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.25%

Blimey!!!

Senator John Edwards : 32.52%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.41%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.15%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.91%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.84%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.10%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Precincts Reporting: 503 of 1781

CRASH AND BURN HILLARY!

Edwards: 152
Obama: 152
Clinton: 150

Holy jeebus

LOL Dodd

Clinton better hope she doesn't finish third. 

Can anyone imagine a "Clinton scream?"

OBAMA TIED FOR FIRST COME ON OBAMA

.4% defecit is not so much of a crash and burn, im afraid.

come on Obama.....

it might be a tad early foryou to laugh.

go edwards goooo

WHAT IF IT'S A THREE WAY TIE?!????!?!??!?!?!?!??!?!?>!?>!?!??!?!?

Obama! Crack this thing open!

Obama just went from 3rd to 1st.

Senator Barack Obama : 32.70%
Senator John Edwards : 32.38%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.79%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.96%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.09%
Uncommitted : 0.06%
Precincts Reporting: 530 of 1781

If Hillary comes in third, the media will report "Hillary came in third", not "Hillary was 0.4% behind second place".  That's a terrible thing for her campaign.

You gotta hand it to the Iowa Democratic Party.  Their website is running smoothly while the Republican one has already crashed... typical.

Obama is in the lead!

Senator Barack Obama : 32.79%
Senator John Edwards : 32.35%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.73%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.97%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.09%
Uncommitted : 0.06%
Precincts Reporting: 554 of 1781

(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

where are these precincts that are reporting? 

It's not winner take all.

YAY-coincidentally, anyone following the gop thread at all?

Edwards: 163
Obama: 163
Clinton: 162

holy sh**t

Another quagmire for the Republicans.




I suppose it might be interesting to have an idea who the sacrifical lamb is.

Anyone not watching the GOP side, CNN just called it for Huckabee.

I'm exaggerating about the level excitement about some posters.

3 Obama, 2 Edwards, 1 Clinton in the c-span booth, precint 53 des moines

Come on Barack! Keep moving!

Its already been over an hour...and it feels like an eternity.

With only 15% of the vote, unless they're not telling us something, is a very low amount to project a winner.

Obama: 197
Edwards: 192
Clinton: 190

OBAMA PULLING AWAY!

There's a GOP thread?

I was wondering why no one was mentioning the GOP candidates  

I hope Ron Paul comes in 3rd or 4th

Woot... Obama nearly a whole 1% ahead! :D

Of course CNN isn't telling you something. :)

But I assume their projection was legitimate.

Obama: 215
Edwards: 208
Clinton: 206

229-221-218

O-E-C

Come on Clinton, keep falling back, you can do it! ;)

Hard to believe this thing is not even halfway over yet.

Come on Hill!

If you look at the county by county results, it seems like there's more room for Edwards and Obama to expand their leads over Clinton.... it's really not looking good for her at all.

lol@Romney got owned..../big PHAIL

go Hillary!

Obama: 243
Edwards: 234
Clinton: 232

^^^^^^^

I loled.

Obama now roughly around 1.5% ahead.

Senator Barack Obama : 33.50%
Senator John Edwards : 32.04%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.71%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.73%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.06%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 784 of 1781

...and it'll only get better for Obama

Obama about to hit 34%...indeed

Yeah, he's probably won.

Go Edwards/Obama...beat the wench!

Obama: 299
Edwards: 283
Clinton: 280

double digit lead for obama hella yea

Baaaah

Anyone know what precincts have come in...are we hitting the bigger cities now you think?

Well it looks like Edwards is finished.  He had everything riding on winning Iowa, and right now it doesn't appear to be trending in his direction.

Bring them on!

we're entering des moines now.

Senator Barack Obama : 33.88%
Senator John Edwards : 31.84%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.60%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.68%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.05%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 889 of 1781

Senator Barack Obama : 34.06%
Senator John Edwards : 31.71%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.76%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.05%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 923 of 1781


hallelujah!

One way or another we should now how this things going to close with Des Moines comming in... [nervous doesnt come close!]

I'll be more than pleased with an Obama victory in Iowa tonight

I hope Edwards manages to best Clinton.

CBS calls Obama.

Much too early.

Based on entrance polls. It's CBS Radio, by the way.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.31%
Senator John Edwards : 31.62%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.24%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.74%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.02%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 965 of 1781

Agreed although the direction things are going in is clear.

Obama: 355
Edwards: 330
Clinton: 328

Still a tough race for second, but Obama is opening up some serious ground between him and Edwards.

Yeah, Obama's won.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.52%
Senator John Edwards : 31.61%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.13%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.69%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1000 of 1781


woot

And on an unrelated note, I just noticed that we've finally breached 50% precincts reporting.

Sigh... well, let's hope for second...

Well we're over 1000 delegates and Obama is still gaining.

Edwards won Jasper country...of which they were fighting for the most. But it seems it didnt matter much now I guess. Oh well, 2nd is fine =]

OEC is my best-case scenario.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.69%
Senator John Edwards : 31.52%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.00%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.69%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.03%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%
Uncommitted : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1057 of 1781

Not really for him although I hope he manages to get there at least.

Obama: 413
Edwards: 376
Clinton: 370

It's over.  Obama won.

So with that now out of the way... GO EDWARDS FOR SECOND PLACE

Clinton looks like she'll scrape second

Obama will win.  The question is who will be second.

Well, if Obama's won.... he better show he's more than the anti-Clinton candidate, or the "feel good candidate". Cause I don't see more than that... that's why I don't support him.

:(

Wow, big sweep for Obama. Congrats.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.81%
Senator John Edwards : 31.34%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.04%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.69%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.00%
Uncommitted : 0.07%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 1108 of 1781

she's closing...paddle faster!

Why's that?  Edwards and Clinton have been basically completely level for a long time now; in fact, Edwards is further away from Clinton than he's been for a while (not that they're very far apart).

It's looking like Obama, but I will hold out hope.

GO BIDEN YOU CAN DO IT!!!! :P

Des Moines country was actually ALOT closer than I expected...but favored Obama of course.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.95%
Senator John Edwards : 31.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.68%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.97%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1173 of 1781

Obama-Edwards!

Well, that's disappointing. It looks like it'll be O-C-E.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.90%
Senator John Edwards : 31.26%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.03%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.70%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.96%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1186 of 1781
thats why gabu

Obama just topped 500 delegates.  Still only 3 separating Edwards and Clinton.

Obama 35% woooooooooooooooooooosh!

I hope Obama widens his lead even more.

Senator Barack Obama : 34.99%
Senator John Edwards : 31.26%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.96%
 
Hold steady Edwards...

Senator Barack Obama : 34.96%
Senator John Edwards : 31.26%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.96%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.72%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.95%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1230 of 1781

COME ON EDWARDS HOLD CLINTON OFF YOU CAN DO IT

Eh...*biting nails*

Senator Barack Obama : 35.09%
Senator John Edwards : 31.16%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.89%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1247 of 1781

come on edwards....

Senator Barack Obama : 35.06%
Senator John Edwards : 31.19%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.87%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.97%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1262 of 1781

Obama: 538
Edwards: 479
Clinton: 475

holy sh**t, this is what I call a big finish

MSNBC calls it for Obama.

COME ON CLINTON PASS EDWARDS YOU CAN DO IT

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Well, now I'm glad I didn't wuss out in my prediction and call Iowa for Edwards.

If Edwards holds off Clinton and finishes within 2-3 pts of Barack, would you call his campaign dead?  I don't think so b/c he beat the frontrunner. 

Senator Barack Obama : 35.21%
Senator John Edwards : 31.08%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.82%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.79%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.97%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1286 of 1781

NO Harry. You fail.

Senator Barack Obama : 35.25%
Senator John Edwards : 31.02%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.78%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.80%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.01%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1304 of 1781

Depends on whether or not he gets the endorsements in Nevada.

Edwards... DO A BARREL ROLL

AHHH NOOOOO!!

Senator Barack Obama : 35.26%
Senator John Edwards : 30.99%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.78%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.82%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.02%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1316 of 1781

:( I know

MMMMMM.... and it feels so good! ;D

Now we need a decent finish, a clear first place none of this "three way tie" rubish that the Clinton campaign will look to spin!

:( Poor us.

And Biden coming behind Richardson.  What a bad night! :(

Yes I would.  Obama is going to get a majority of the publicity over the next week, which will give him momentum going into the New Hampshire primaries. 

Edwards needed to win first place.

Remember that Des Moines County doesn't contain the city of Des Moines. The city is in Polk County. Des Moines County is farther east, and is much more rural.

12 new posts

8 new posts

9 lol

1

No; I think 2nd, over Clinton, is as good as possible.

Senator Barack Obama : 35.87%
Senator John Edwards : 30.65%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.44%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.92%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.98%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1369 of 1781

Obama: 618
Edwards: 530
Clinton: 527

75% reporting

Come on, Edwards!  Just hold on for another 25%!

lol@Giuliani.."well..first I want to congratulate Mike...he ran a good race..."............./MAJOR PHAILL 4 JOO RUDi!

This is not good for my girl.  Looks like she will finish a close 3rd, but still 3rd.  The momentum will be carried by Obama.

105 hours or so until the New Hampshire polls open.

Okay, I gotta go eat dinner quick.  You guys hold down the fort and repel any attempts at last minute Clintonmentum.

Nope:

Senator Barack Obama : 36.27%
Senator John Edwards : 30.48%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.25%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.93%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1422 of 1781

David Gergen on CNN

Regardless of whether Edwards places second or third in Iowa, he has nowhere to go.  

I think Obama might actually get close to hitting 40%....major winzz 4 joo Obama

without Gabu to keep the floodgates closed, Clinton will surge ahead!

Congratulations go out to Barack Obama!  A few months ago I predicted Obama would win Iowa/New Hampshire and then the nomination -- this Biden supporter would be happy to vote for Obama in the GE.

Come on Edwards...

come on Edwards...please...

Senator Barack Obama : 36.30%
Senator John Edwards : 30.50%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.21%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.94%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1430 of 1781

This is true. Edwards needs to cut his losses now.

Clinton is badly hurt by this, but we'll see on Feb 5 if it was fatal.

JOHN!!!! PLEASE!!!!

i've passed the point at which a heart attack was possibleroughly page 11-but im still tense. Over 36% for Obama!

Edwards has actually increased his lead slightly over Clinton.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.44%
Senator John Edwards : 30.42%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.12%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.96%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1458 of 1781

Edwards is dead.

Romney, Clinton and McCain need a win in NH.

Prediction for NH, McCain and Clinton.

Holding out for him to break the 39% barrier... :)

If Edwards gets 2nd hes not as dead as most people think he is [or should be].

That would be heaven.

My prediction of 38% Obama, and 30% each for Edwards and Clinton looks pretty good. :)

My guess is that Obama ends up with 38%, maybe 39%, with Edwards getting 31% and Clinton 29%.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.44%
Senator John Edwards : 30.42%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.12%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.96%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.09%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1458 of 1781

Senator Barack Obama : 36.68%
Senator John Edwards : 30.24%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.99%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1487 of 1781


only has to hold out for another 300...

Clinton down to 29% get ittttttt

Don't spoil the party. Is anyone going in your thread and dissing the GOP candidates?

Obama's lead is still growing. HE'S A MONSTER!!!!

Senator Barack Obama : 36.72%
Senator John Edwards : 30.19%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.02%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1502 of 1781

close again..

It's analysis.

Uhh, CNN just showed that Richardson won 10% of the youth (I think under-25) vote, more than Clinton.

wtf?

Have to admit that I didn't see the youth bloc coming through for Obama, hence my last prediction of a win for Edwards, but they obviously did come through for Obama in a big way.

If Edwards wins second, Clinton's loss will really hurt, especially if she closes below 30% with the other two above 30%. If that happens, this will be a three-way race instead of the two-way race most everybody has been making it out to be the past few months. That said, Edwards needs to get a boost in New Hampshire making him competitive with Clinton or he's dead. After that, he needs to lock up those union endorsements in Nevada and get another win in South Carolina. If Obama wins a close race in NH, but Edwards manages to win NV and SC, we're in for a great Super Duper Tuesday.

Edwards might do it!

Atleast Richardson broke 2%...yay him =]

Senator Barack Obama : 36.70%
Senator John Edwards : 30.19%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.03%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.02%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1507 of 1781
(Percentages are State Delegate Equivalents.)

No, not at all.  Woe, woe, woe...

Senator Barack Obama : 36.72%
Senator John Edwards : 30.16%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 30.03%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.01%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1518 of 1781

fu'ckfu'ckfu'ckfu'ckfu'ck

I have to apologize !

I kneel down to the Iowa electorate. How cool it is to make a false prediction once in a while.

Great Job, Team Obama ! ;)

The best would be if Edwards can hold off Clinton now and stays 2nd ...

()


Have you been living under a rock?


The number of precincts reporting with each update has slowed.

Obama got a HUGE boost from 2 choice voters....I was wrong..../phail for me =[

Chris Dodd is unstoppable with his 0.03%.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.84%
Senator John Edwards : 30.11%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.92%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.07%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1534 of 1781

I was about to post that!

Senator Barack Obama : 36.78%
Senator John Edwards : 30.16%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.92%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.08%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1546 of 1781

how about we swap-you can have 1546, i get the next, then you etc.

maximise efficiency.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.82%
Senator John Edwards : 30.15%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.90%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.08%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1553 of 1781

The youth vote is notoriously fickle. I figured they'd fizzle for Obama just like they fizzled for Dean in 2004. I was wrong, but I am pleased that Edwards is holding onto second place. Let's hope it keeps up. And let's hope Hillary comes out crying during her concession speech.

Tonight is a huge victory for Obama, a comeback for Edwards, and a daunting defeat for Clinton.

OEC! OEC! OEC! Go Edwards go, don't let her get second. LOL! "Inevitable" my ass! W00T!

Senator Barack Obama : 36.86%
Senator John Edwards : 30.15%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.87%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.07%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1562 of 1781

DMR called it: Obama by 7%

Oh man, if Obama wins and Clinton is held under 30%, that would be the best result ever.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.86%
Senator John Edwards : 30.15%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.84%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1568 of 1781

Senator Barack Obama : 36.88%
Senator John Edwards : 30.14%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.85%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.90%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1576 of 1781

Come on Edwards. Also, I hope Clinton drops below 29.5.

C'mon, Edwards... just a liiittle bit more!

^^xalotttt

Edwards is 8 delegates above Clinton. Looking good...

Senator Barack Obama : 36.94%
Senator John Edwards : 30.09%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.79%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.10%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1588 of 1781

Edwards pulling ahead a little

Clinton falling! :)

Come on Edwards. Stay above 30%.

Senator Barack Obama : 36.98%
Senator John Edwards : 30.05%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.75%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.17%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1600 of 1781

almost over now.

with over 90% reporting,

Senator Barack Obama : 36.99%
Senator John Edwards : 30.07%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.72%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.16%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1604 of 1781

Clinton just needs to fall .26 more points and we're good. :P

Senator Barack Obama : 37.03%
Senator John Edwards : 30.08%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.70%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1611 of 1781

Obama at 37!

Obama: 804
Edwards: 655
Clinton: 648

11% still to go.  Edwards up by 7.  Cross your fingers.

They have been crossed all night....i think they are chaffing =S

Senator Barack Obama : 37.05%
Senator John Edwards : 30.09%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.68%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.14%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.91%
Uncommitted : 0.11%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1615 of 1781


the hilldawg slide continues...

Senator Barack Obama : 37.06%
Senator John Edwards : 30.07%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.65%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.90%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1621 of 1781

Guys ... do you really think 7 delegates matter that much?

Senator Barack Obama : 37.06%
Senator John Edwards : 30.07%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.65%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.90%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1621 of 1781

I like Obama and Edwards, and would love to support either one for president. My favored candidate has always been and always will be Al Gore, though. As such, I could not be happier with tonight's results. My dream is a three-way race all the way that leads to a brokered convention that produces Al Gore as the compromise candidate. Short of that, I'll gladly settle for Obama or Edwards.

A HUGE defeat for Clinton, especially if she closes in third place below that 30 point threshold. If she cannot win even second place among only Democrats in Iowa, if she cannot win the support of even a third of Democrats in Iowa, how can she possibly beat the Republicans in November? That ought to be the question the spin doctors ask the rest of the month.

if clinton and edwards stay at 30% (with rounding) will the media call it 'tied for 2nd' or will the one with a fraction fewer be called 3rd?

against hillary...yes pls

Obama: 825
Edwards: 670
Clinton: 661


Oh, I don't care about the actual results.  I care about Clinton coming in third, which will be a crushing blow to her campaign regardless of whether or not she only needed two more state delegates to come in second.

That depends on what they want to emphasize.

That's up to the media, they get to decide how to spin everything to their personal agenda. Normally they'd do everything they can to hurt Edwards, but if they think he's toast, they might not bother to say he's tied for 2nd.

It's her being in third that matters more than the difference in delegates - wouldn't look good for someone who had practically built their campaign on being an inevitable juggernaut that couldn't be beaten.

in public perception, they hear Hillary under 30% and in third? Yes it matters!

Senator Barack Obama : 37.12%
Senator John Edwards : 30.02%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.62%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.95%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1635 of 1781

Senator Barack Obama : 37.15%
Senator John Edwards : 30.00%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.61%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.14%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.95%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1640 of 1781

30%?

Awesome news for Obama, Im thrilled with these results. :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D


Best of luck to Edwards in turning back Hillary!

Are you talking about realistically or in terms of "this is how things will be framed by the media"?

I agree it will be media framed as such.  Realistically though, the caucuses are a weird event and with things like Kucinich telling his people to go to Obama if they can't get a majority for him, the #'s are sorta skewed.  New Hampshire will be a straight up vote and likely more representative.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.14%
Senator John Edwards : 30.00%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.60%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.16%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.95%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1642 of 1781

down, down, down...

Senator Barack Obama : 37.18%
Senator John Edwards : 30.00%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.58%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1647 of 1781

I'm at the edge of my seat...

If Edwards can get that visual of 30% for him vs. 29% for Clinton, it'll be so much more powerful than 30% to 30%.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.21%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.57%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1650 of 1781

Edwards under 30%. C'mon...

Senator Barack Obama : 37.24%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.56%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.14%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1656 of 1781

Come on Edwards... you can do it...

COME ON CLINTON

29.49%

YOU CAN GET THERE

Hillary Clinton is going into New Hampshire as a wounded duck thats a given no matter where she finishes tonight.  If she finishes any less than 1st in New Hampshire, she will be a duck on life-support going into Nevada and South Carolina and is possible she could be a dead duck going into Super Tuesday.

Clinton could end up in 3rd rounding to 29% (under 29.5%).

Senator Barack Obama : 37.26%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.55%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1660 of 1781

2 booths here, 3 there...all slowly moving hillary down.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.95%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.54%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1667 of 1781

Whats the delegate count currently?

Chris Dodd has 1 delegate -- HE'S NOT SHUT OUT!!!

The most exciting moment of the night: Watching Hillary's concession speech.

I can hardly wait...

If this holds up, tonight is a victory for Obama, a comeback for Edwards (He beat Mrs. Inevitable) and a HUGE defeat for Clinton.

Obama: 853
Edwards: 687
Clinton: 677

Obama 853
Edwards 687
Clinton 677
Richardson 49
Biden 22
Uncommitted 3
Dodd 1

Obama: 855
Edwards: 688
Clinton: 678

Edwards now leads by 10, with only 7% to go.

EDIT: or you can just look above, whoops. :P

I imagine the Hillary camp is cheering exactly opposite to us.

Come on Hillary, just a few to go....

Senator Barack Obama : 37.29%
Senator John Edwards : 29.98%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.52%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1671 of 1781

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1675 of 1781

30. Please.

Make that 11. :D

Obama 860
 Edwards 691
 Clinton 681
 Richardson 49
 Biden 22
 Uncommitted 3
 Dodd 1

Senator Barack Obama : 37.30%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1677 of 1781

I'm guessing the Clinton fans hate us now....

Senator Barack Obama : 37.28%
Senator John Edwards : 29.96%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1679 of 1781

Question to the guys who dislike Hillary ... why?

Senator Barack Obama : 37.26%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.53%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.15%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.03%
Precincts Reporting: 1680 of 1781

That 29.97% makes me want to rip my hair out.

Ask all of the Iowans who did not vote for her despite all of the millions of dollars and all of the time spent in the state.

LOL. Not this again...

Its fine they can do whatever they want, they should just know their "frontrunner" busted tonight. /PERFECT PHAILZ

Edwards very nearly back at 30.... c'mon John, I'd never support you but just beat Clinton!!!

Not liberal enough.

Iowa is presently unavailable (something about a caucus).  I'm asking the folks on this board why they dislike her.

There's a lot of variation from precinct to precinct within 1 county.

For example:

Adams Co., Carbon precinct:
Edwards 5, Clinton 1, Obama 1

Adams Co., Corning-1A precinct:
Clinton 2, Obama 1, Richardson 1

she's under!

29.47% WOO!

Clinton rounding to 29%.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.36%
Senator John Edwards : 29.97%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1688 of 1781

Basically, a change in the number of voters.

Statistically irrelevant.

Edwards is speaking...yay him @2nd place...better than MOST people expected.

I think you didn't look carefully at the Edwards numbers.

The same reasons that the vast majority of Iowan Democrats did not vote for her.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.39%
Senator John Edwards : 29.95%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.45%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1691 of 1781

Why? Because she's just too damn evil - and this is a card carrying Libertarian you're talking to. I'm evil incarnate and heartless to boot!

Senator Barack Obama : 37.39%
Senator John Edwards : 29.95%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.46%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.13%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1692 of 1781

so slooow

Sounds like Edwards is staying in the race... hmmm...

NO

NO

I CAST THEE BACK, THOU VILE BEAST WHO DOTH DESERVETH THE PLACE OF THIRD

Woooooo! Edwards is on!

He's right: the status quo has been defeated.

Ok ... so basically the answers I got to why this board doesn't like Hillary were:

*Don't ask
*Ask Iowa
*She's evil
*Not liberal enough

Hmmm ... answers 1 & 2 are the answers you get from a 7 year old when you ask them why they dislike the color green.  The "not liberal enough" argument is a valid argument, but do you really think a "more liberal" candidate is likely to appeal more to the center?

The "evil" argument ... are you kidding me man?  You gotta back that one up.  Otherwise one could say that Mr Rogers, the A-Team, and Mars bars are evil.

81 to go...almost there GO JOHN!

It's looking like Clinton probably really will be in 3rd place.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.39%
Senator John Edwards : 29.95%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1700 of 1781

Well I'm glad to see him going on... let's pray for a NH miracle.

Well, he got second. He beat Hillary so there is a moral victory for him tonight

He did better than the "inevitable nominee," so of course he and his campaign are marching forward. It's almost like Bill Clinton in NH in 1992. This was a huge night for Edwards, beating the Clinton Machine.

The polls showed Edwards doing better in the general election.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.40%
Senator John Edwards : 29.96%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.12%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1701 of 1781

HILLBOT 8.0 can be defeated, there is a god apparently.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.41%
Senator John Edwards : 29.95%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1703 of 1781

And we all know how good polls are.  They showed us Kerry and Gore victories.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.42%
Senator John Edwards : 29.94%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.46%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1706 of 1781

70 summit left

Networks showing the race as Obama 37 - Edwards 30 - Clinton 29... :)

Yes, that was obviously a joke. You know, humor, haha funny.

Also, while she may or may not be evil I do contend that she's a bitch and she should stop calling for the government to regulate my video games dammit! :P

And the "second-place winner" is part of that.

Obama will get 14 delegates towards the nomination, Clinton 13, Edwards 12.  So, in that respect, Clinton is 2nd.

Obama: 38%
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 29%

Nine point thumping!

The entrance polls are kinda interesting to look at, if you're getting bored of refreshing pages over and over:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#IADEM

One interesting thing was Obama (barely) winning Democrats.  Wasn't Clinton supposed to be far and away the favorite of Democrats?

I guess that makes sense...?

Why does she get more than him?

Senator Barack Obama : 37.51%
Senator John Edwards : 29.90%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.43%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.92%
Uncommitted : 0.12%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1711 of 1781

Super delegates are going to abandon her if she continues her slide.

30% to 29%!!!! YAHOOOOOOOOO

Obama at 38%, Clinton at 29%. Wonderful.

The Edwards spin won't work of course. It's a Clinton v Obama race now, especially in New Hampshire. He may shake things up simply by remaining in the race though.

One never knows about the "evil" comment.  In 2000 a dead serious Republican told me he would never vote for Al Gore because Al Gore is "evil in every way".

My guess is super delegate support, which is solely based on her status as the establishment candidate.

Scratch that, its still updating. Edwards has surged ahead of Clinton in nomination delegates.  Obama 16, Edwards 15, Clinton 14

www.cnn.com/politics

Yes, Obama!

Senator Barack Obama : 37.50%
Senator John Edwards : 29.89%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.42%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1713 of 1781

Edwards falling.

Congrats to Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel for being irrelevant.

K, let's see how loser Clinton decides to spin this

But Clinton's not going up a commensurate amount, thankfully.

Hillary thanks everyone in the Democratic race except Gravel. :D

She's taking her 29% to NH... I'm shaking, lol!  

Beyond that she's doing her very best to sound gracious...

Hillary is speaking and it is SO funny to listen to her after this defeat.

Now she is talking about "change"

Unfortunately, I assume the corporate MSM will just say that Obama won and Clinton and Edwards tied.

For a couple seconds I felt alittle sorry for her, then she started speaking on MSNBC and it all got shot to hell. WTG Obama and Edwards!

Hillary has inspired me

Clinton's speech sounds like a concession.

Chelsea looks pretty good.

Wow Hillary sounds f**king stupid.

Obama breaches 900 state delegates!

"Republicans who have seen the light"... WTF, how patronising and partisan does she want to sound..?

No Clinton scream?

Poor Bill. He should have told her to not run in the first place. He knows what's coming next even if she doesn't.

Why are the results coming in so slow now?

Maybe they're still voting.

Hey, Wes Clark is in that crowd ... I was wondering what happened to him.

I suppose the organizers of the last few precincts just forgot to call the hotline.

lol

The Android is talking like everybody was too afraid to tell her she ended up in a distant third place, most especially her speech writer(s).

Even if she loses NH, NV and SC, she will continue. She will not drop out until somebody wins a majority of the necessary delegates.

You know the reality is that if she gets elected he will really be the President.  It may sound sexist, but I think they both know that he's the smarter and more charismatic one.

Smarter? I doubt it. Hillary is much smarter. He's just more charismatic.

Distant?  1/2% is distant?

Distant from first place, I assume is what he means.

The pro-Edwards spinning in this thread is deafening.

She finished nearly ten points behind Obama. She finished third. Come on...

Dodd is dropping out.

You think?  Interesting considering that Kissinger, Greenspan, and just about every Executive adviser who interacted with every modern President all have said they considered Bill to be the smartest President with whom they worked.

But he got an impressive 0.02%.

Hey, he got above 1% before... back when one single delegate was worth an entire percentage point.

Everybody except Obama, Edwards and Clinton ought to drop out. Let the viable candidates duke it out without also-rans getting in the way.

Yep, Edwards finished 9.5 points behind Obama.  Typically when one says "distant third" they are saying there was a huge gap between 2 and 3.  It would be fair to say that Richardson finished a distant 4th.

Edwards should drop out too.


P.S. Chuck Norris, what are you doing? This has gotten absurd

Senator Barack Obama : 37.56%
Senator John Edwards : 29.86%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.38%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.10%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.94%
Uncommitted : 0.13%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1725 of 1781

Norris's wife keeps checking out Huckabee's butt.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA

It looks like Clinton came in third in the popular vote but got one more delegate then Edwards, so it looks like she still has a spin angle here.

Why does Clinton get more delegates than Edwards? That doesn't make sense at all...

???

Hey Chuck said yesterday that Huckabee was going to win in a landslide and what happened? I salute Chuck and I'm sorry I doubted him.

By the way, for comparison, here's the way Iowa in 2004 went:

Kerry: 38%
Edwards: 32%
Dean: 18%
Gephardt: 11%
Kucinich: 1%

Obama has arguably done even better than Kerry did in terms of margin of victory.

Chuck Norris doesn't endorse - he tells America how it's going to be.

Probably she won in more populous areas.

Final thoughts before I call it a night here.

1 - Mitt Romney is probably sitting in a hotel room tonight having a "Dodgeball" moment. "Friggin' Chuck Norris ....."

2 - The caucuses are a weird thing, especially on the Democrat side.  It isn't a standard straw poll and there is a lot of wheeling and dealing.  Kucinich explicitly told his people that if they couldn't get a majority for him they should switch to Obama.

3 - The dislike of Hillary on this board by people with red avatars is interesting.  I find it almost ridiculous actually.  Especially since no one can explain their dislike aside from one comment that she isn't liberal enough.  Keep in mind guys, that is the attitude which landed us with George Bush in 2000.  Since it seems likely that I'll be spending a good part of '08 and '09 in Europe I can only ask you guys to please not screw up the country again like you did in '00 and '04.

Every single time Hillary opens her mouth, I feel like it sounds like a calculated, focus-group tested comment.  She gives off this strong "typical slimy politician" vibe that I don't get one bit from Obama.  Simply put, I don't trust her.

In 2000 that was said about being the difference between Gore and Bush.  And look how well that turned out for us.  Ok, I'm finally out.

The victor speaks ...

The crowd is going NUTS......and I think I love it.

Fortunately for Dems on this forum, Indys can vote in New Hampshire too.  Obama probably wins NH and then the race becomes interesting, very...  :)

Walter must have moved to Iowa just in the nick of time!

God damn... Obama sounds powerful tonight. This is our next President.

Some of the chicks in the room sound like they are losing their minds.

Gah. I'll probably have to learn to like him now.

well, once they've gone...well...erm...they're never going back.

Anyone got a link to the speech?  I'd like to see it (and other candidates', as well).

lol

Yes, this sounds like it´s already Denver Time.

No to rain on the Obama parade...but its way too early to think about Denver yet...If Clinton can survive New Hampshire and to Feb 5th...she could still be a mighty big obstacle when New York and California roll around.

For one night I'm throwing caution to the wind... "We're gonna, Win the League, We're gonna win the League, we/re gon..." (you get the idea - albeit in Soccer terminology :) ). 

here we go with the race card now!

Its an amazing speech though, and I believe he has the ability to make it to Denver. He sounds commited, while you could tell Hillary was licking her wounds as she left the podium earlier.

Here's an excerpt from a CNN article on the results:

"With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 38 percent of voters, compared to 30 percent for John Edwards and 29 percent for Hillary Clinton."

If Bush is "Mr. 26%", can we start calling Clinton "Mrs. 29%"? ;)

he talked about the civil rights movement for about ten seconds.

Amazing speech.

Alright, I'm on the bandwagon.

Obama's speech is good.  Very good.  I would probably be supporting him if it weren't for his lack of foreign policy experience.  His opinion on Iraq is just so contrary to mine.

Biden is officially out of the race now.

CNN kept telling me that I was missing a plugin when I attempted to watch Obama's speech.  Oh well, I'll catch it on YouTube tomorrow, since I have a feeling it ain't gonna take long for it to show up.

Was he doing a King impression? Like, for serious???

Clinton's speech was much better, more gracious and presidential. And the continuing underdog card is bullsh**t.

Very poor speech.

To paraphrase what is said about Papal Elections:

He who enters New Hampshire a President, exits it a loser.

Shouldnt you be more worried about your boy Rudy's poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire...and pretty much every other early state out there pre-super tuesday...if most people still support him anyways.

Hillary's speech was weak, and you could hear defeat when she spoke. Obama was very powerful, and sounded commited to win through Super Tuesday. I had doubts before but not now.

Oh please... give me a break. Weren't you the one calling for a Hillary landslide tonight? Get over it.

Excellent speech from Obama

I don't know, but he sounded like a preacher at some points. It was a good speech, but why bring up the civil rights movement? This is why I hate Democrats ... always playing the race card.

FWIW, I think Clinton will still win the nomination, but the wind is definitely behind him now. He will be revealed for who he is eventually. His shaky positions and the fact that he has avoided any tough interviews and questions still troubles me.

Great.  The Repubs are already complaining about Obama.

They are worried. Its fine :P

Just one more precinct left.


Senator Barack Obama : 37.57%
Senator John Edwards : 29.76%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.46%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1780 of 1781

Yet to report is Waterloo W4P6 in Black Hawk county. Probably pretty Obama friendly.

Somehow I don't think much is going to change when it comes in. :P

Senator Barack Obama : 37.58%
Senator John Edwards : 29.75%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.11%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.93%
Uncommitted : 0.14%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.02%
Precincts Reporting: 1781 of 1781

A huge Gravel surge is expected.


::: runs :::

Interesting results :)

Interesting results yes. But they're good results especially for Obama supporters! Like myself. This calls me to play Rock the Casbah, because this is what's going to happen in Washington this year!

No, in 2000 the difference was that every Bush comment sounded like a calculated, focus-group tested comment that he couldn't quite get straight despite having practiced it in front of the mirror for several hours.
That's because that's what it was.

Any analysis to offer?  I've been waiting for you to get on to hear things from you about it. :P

No

Besides the obvious, Obama seems to have done better than I'd assumed he would in what working class counties Iowa has; because of the way the results be done how much use county numbers are for the Dem race is a little questionable, but it's an indication that his appeal is broader than the soft-lefty stereotype.

Edwards, btw, did badly in such areas, but then he did in 2004 so that's not really news.

If that makes any sense. It probably doesn't. More later.

What score did Kucinich and Gravel get anyways?

When can we expect a map?

Neither one picked up even one delegate to the county conventions.  Dodd got four.

I know, any information on their % score?

There is no accurate information for any of the non-major candidates. Sadly.

Regarding Obama's win, I believe I speak for many when I say... WOOOO-HOOO!

LT, I don't know if you were in the US in 2000.  I spent the year traveling for work and, by chance, was in Austin on election night (a truly bizarre experience for a liberal political junkie such as myself).

Conversations which I had with people in PA, in TX, and all over the country usually went along the lines that most people agreed that Gore was smarter than Bush but they all were confident that Bush would "surround himself with a good team".  7 years later that seems hilarious but that was the mentality.

More importantly though, I repeatedly heard that Gore was robotic and boring but that Bush was "real" and "inspiring".

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/stateprim.php?fips=19&year=2008&elect=1)

light purple counties are ties between Clinton and Edwards.  Gray county is tie between Clinton and Obama.  interestingly, Edwards didn't win any congressional districts as his support is split amongst the districts.

So it looks like Illinois Democrats support Obama (duh), Missouri ones support Edwards, Nebraska ones support Hillary and Minnesota ones are mixed (I'd have figured the more liberal DFL party base to be a hotbed of support for Obama but for some reason Hillary seems to be popular in Minnesota. Oh well, all Obama needs is momentum to win here)

Why are the percentages listed so far off from the official ones though?

Thing is, I find and found it really hard to comprehend how anybody could think Bush "real" in 2000. He seemed to be taking fakeness to a new dimension.

Obama won Clinton County. Good one.

Your results say 98% reported. Maybe you should use this Iowa Democratic site that is at 100%.

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

What's interesting is that the DMR got the demographic make-up completely wrong, and yet they pretty much got all the percentages right. Self-fulfilling prophecy?

Does Clinton owe her strong showing in west Iowa to Kerrey's endorsement?

Nebraska Democrats maybe. People in western Iowa don't give a f**k about Bob Kerrey, assuming they even know who he is. But that might've effected Nebraska Democrats a bit, helping her.

Are the numbers in the "Caucus Result" column the popular vote results? I thought that the Democrats only reported the delegates elected to the county conventions.