Talk Elections

Suppose in 1974, William Jefferson Clinton of Hope, Arkansas is elected into the United States Congress, representing Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District.

Now this event would seriously muck up political events in Arkansas. It could lead to the election of Jim Guy Tucker as Governor of Arkansas in 1976, instead of becoming Governor in 1992. With Governor Tucker in 1976 he would probably re-elected in 1978 but he may lose in 1980 to Frank White, like Clinton in RL. Thanks to the Cuban unrest at Fort Chafee.

Let's also remember that if Tucker is elected in 1976, there would be no Whitewater Scandal thus elevating Mike Huckabee to the Governorship in 1996. But if White was elected in 1980, Congressman Clinton could possibly run and defeat White in the General Election.

These are some ideas about a possible Congressman Clinton. Any thoughts? Or something you would like to conjure up?

Assuming that Congressman Clinton is as skilled a politician as Governor and President Clinton then I think it is fair to say that he is able to retain his seat throughout the '80s ... gradually rising through the ranks of the party.  Ultimately he would probably have his eye on a Senate seat, but Bumpers and Pryor have those locked up until 2000 and 1997.

Perhaps more important are the implications on the 1992 election.  Taking Clinton out of the mix would lead one to believe that Paul Tsongas gets the nomination and then gets his clock cleaned by Bush.

Changing the White House in '92 has huge implications.  There is no anti-Clinton sentiment to act as a rallying point for the Republicans to seize Congress in '94.

The '96 Presidential election gets very interesting.  The field would be rather wide open on both sides because although Quayle is heir apparent I don't think anyone had any faith in his electability.  As for Clinton, I suspect he runs for (and wins) the Senate seat being opened by the David Pryor retirement.

My prediction is that after 16 years the country would want a change and would elect a Dem President (I imagine a field including Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Jim Hunt, Doug Wilder, and Bill Bradley).

Whoever would come in would step into the internet boom for their first term.  This would just about guarantee them reelection in 2000.  They would also be guaranteed to experience years of slings and arrows being fired at them by a resentful GOP.  Then 9/11 hits and, I suspect, the White House gets the blame.

In 2002 Clinton seeks a 2nd term in the Senate and wins.

In 2004 Republicans win the Presidency.  But I wouldn't be surprised if going into 2008 Bill Clinton were in the midst of his own bid for the Democratic nomination to challenge the sitting Republican President.

I'll buy Wakie's breakdown for a dollar though I question if someone else would step up and defeat Bush in 1992.

Keep in mind Clinton will be 62 in 2008 so it's rather realistic if Senator Bill Clinton took a shot at the White House. Though keep in mind, in the history of our nation, only 2 Senator went directly from the Senate to the White House - Harding and Kennedy.

Why would Speaker William Jefferson Clinton care to risk everything on a run for the White House? Maybe his wife, the Secretary of HHS during Gore's second term would care to run for the White House in 2008, but not ever having held elected office in her own right, I can't see her as being anything more than a second-tier Vice Presidential possibility.

I doubt Clinton could have held that district for long.

Considering that the Arkansas 3rd district has been Republican since Hammerschmidt won it in 1966 you're probably right.

Not to mention Hammerschmidt did hold onto his House seat until 1993 and that's when he retired. Then as we know Tim Hutchinson succeeded Hummerschmidt in 1992 but he had conservative voting record. So really the seat didn't change "Republican" hands since 1966.

-Bill Clinton never beocmes President
-Hillary never goes into politics
-Paul Tsongas is elected President in 1992
-Tsongas dies in office, and his VP is elected in 1996 in his own right

Would've been nice. We'd have votes to throw against him in 1992 as well as past affairs, White Water, and a wife named Hillary Clinton.

I'm not sure he would ahve ran and won the Democratic nomination in 1992 in this scenario.

staying away from congress is smart when running for president

So you agree with my previous point?

Suppose further that John Kerry is elected to Congress in 1972, and George W. Bush is elected to Congress in 1978.

Kerry could still be elected Senator in 1984, and follow a similar career trajectory. Harder to say for the other two.

Which previous point? He may have still won the 1992 nomination.

Bush would be very out of place as a legislator. He's the executive, charismatic, leader despite his decisions and popularity.

My previos point is that he might not have ran in 1992 if he was a Congressman instead of a Governor.

Yes I agree. Tsongas or Kerrey would've been the nominee and Bush Sr. would've been reelected by a couple points.

Clinton was such an astute politician he would have made it the presidency, Dubya not so much. Karl Rove made him, and lol Geez Derrick Bush was likeable probaly one of the most likeable people i  have ever seen run, but Jesus Christ he was not even remotely charasmatic.

what are you referring to exactly? That quote was random.