Talk Elections

We saw what could happen tonight, folks. Michigan Republicans gave Mr. "I don't want to go back to Reagan-Bush" his nice, comfortable victory because his father was a popular "brainwashed" Governor who never had a real chance at the Presidency. He's now back in the game with a chance at snatching two victories this weekend.

It's embarrassing that conservative Republicans have fallen for this guy's BS. I'm so ashamed that so many people could be tricked so easily. We have the chance to correct it. If he isn't stopped, we're going into a General election with a complete fraud. Say what you want about McCain, Huckabee, Rudy and Thompson but you can't call them phoney. Mitt is a sham. I have never seen someone do an ideological makeover like this guy has and if you don't think he'll be hit on it by November then you're blind. Remember Kerry's flip flopping? This guy is clearly worse.

I don't want this to sound like a bunch of demands. "Nominate my guy or else!" I don't work that way. However, there are enough people out there like myself who are so disgusted with this guy that the party can't afford to take a risk with him and our complaints are legitimate. This will be my first Presidential election and it really is something when I can't fully bring myself to say that I'd vote for this guy if he was the nominee. That's really saying something.

Put an end to this show, people. Put an end to this guy who laughed in our faces tonight after quoting Reagan and George H.W. Bush just fourteen years after he said he didn't want to "go back" to what they promoted and how he was an independent back then. There is something seriously wrong with people if we let this joke get away with this.

We have been warned.

We have three days until Nevada and South Carolina. I'm confident about South Carolina, not as much about Nevada. Mitt's just gonna keep trying to buy the nomination...until we all wrap around a nominee. That has to be McCain, otherwise our party is split into March.

As a member of the Left Wing of the Republican Party, I'm no fan of Mitt either...he's a better dressed used car salesman

since we come from the same wing of the gop, you should join me in supporting hillary.

Surprisingly, I've come to tolerate the Clintons, and I think she's the most qualified Democrat, but I sort of like Obama too...

However, I haven't given out hope for a solid candidate like McCain, or Rudy (whose often crazy sounding rhetoric may just be a ploy in primary season...I hope).

But I would have no hesitation voting for Hillary if Willard Mitt is the party's nominee.

I'd feel better with Hillary running the country than Barack, that's for sure. I was pulling for Mitt last night because I still am hoping enough fragmentation in the party will allow Rudy to win Florida and become viable again.

Mitt is as fake as they get. He won't get those jobs back in Michigan. No president can. If they have gone overseas, only the industry can bring them back, and in this globalized economy we have today, it isn't profitable to do that.

I could eat crow if my rooting for Mitt backfires on me and he win the nomination. I may be forced to pray that Bloomberg runs. If it is Barack v. Romney, I may have a hard time voting for either. I don't think I can vote for Hillary either, but if Bill will be in the White House, I can tolerate that. I just won't be happy.

McCain is looking like the stongest candidate, but living in Texas and watching what illegal immigration has done to our state makes this hard for me.  I puke everytime McCain starts talking about "God's children".  That issue among Republicans will probably do him in as far as the nomination.  I will vote for Thompson in the Texas Primary although it will probably be too late for him.

Romney?  He's running even with Clinton in Alabama, slightly behind in Kentucky and gets drilled in Ohio.  He's Hillary's dream candidate.

We're so screwed.

Rudy knows how to beat the Clintons! Why everyone has run away from him all of a sudden is a mystery to me. Hopefully now that McCain lost, he will regain some support.

No matter who runs, it always seems we end up with a choice between:
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and
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I'm really hoping that the Republicans wake up, and realize that our best shot is with McCain, REGARDLESS if he wins or not.

 I don't get why some dont realize that Mitt has no chance of being elected, and by him being the nominee, it'll hurt the underticket like CRAZY! Mitt and Huckabee will cause us to lose a lot of seats in the House, where as candidates like McCain or Rudy will help us retain what we have (hopefully)

 Either way, Romney is an idiot, and I hope that any of his momentum dies out REAL SOON.

Romney and Huckabee will be beaten soundly and yes, will kill us down the ballot as well.

Unfortunately, Republicans don't look at the head to head polls like the political junkies on this board.

They are likely to vote for Romney and Huckabee and then be shocked when the post convention polls show either as the nominee is trailing Hillary by double digits.

Hillary and Bill just need to dispose of the black guy and there doesn't appear to be much opposition in the general, especially if we are in recession.  That is the Hillary perfect storm.

Then hope that he gets caught in bed with a dead girl or live boy, because Romney will be the last guy to drop out if he drops out at all.  He is resonating with Republican voters (he won the GOP vote in NH and MI), whereas the others need independents and Democrats to be competitive with him.   This nomination will be a battle between someone and Romney, so, even now, he's got a 50% shot at winning this prize.

and a 0% chance at winning the GE

Phil,

I'm not a Republican, of course.  But I think you're absolutely right.  McCain comes with POSITIVE "baggage" -- his patriotism and heroism, his willingness to think and act independently.  Giuliani I am less enthusiastic about.  But Willard Mitt Romney would be a disaster for your party and for America.

My hackish side loves the idea of Willard Mitt or Huckabee as the nominee, because it would almost guarantee a Democratic victory.

But the side of me that goes beyond partisanship detests the idea.  If it's Obama-McCain, Clinton-McCain or Edwards-McCain...I would be a lot more optimistic about the future of the country...whoever wins.

Romney was a mediocre one term governor who just happens to be fabulously rich.  We have had one of those for eight years now.  Time for -- dare I say it?  Change.

First, Romney isn't unelectable. He is very smart, even if he has negatives, and people probably thought what you thought in 2002 when it wasn't clear if he was a resident of MA, he had chosen Muffy as his running mate and faced off against Shannon O'Brien (who, interestingly, had fellow 2008er Hillary Clinton campaign for her prominently) for the chance to replace a total failure of a Republican executive, in Swift (sound familiar?).  Romney has run this same race before (replacing failure Bush to keep the GOP in control, despite that failure, against a woman who wasn't an inconsequential opponent) and pulled it off in MA, which is more liberal than the US at large. 

If you win the nomination for the GOP, because unexpected things can happen in a campaign, Romney will have a much higher chance of winning the WH than 0%, I assure you. Hell, it was amazing Bush beat Gore in 2000, but it happened!

McCain's positives are unnaturally high due to his being the media's favorite candidate.

The Clintons pretty much have it made.  Clinton Inc will roll over Obama by doing whatever it takes to destoy him.  Republicans seem more interested in destroying each other and obtaining the resulting worthless nomination.

The Clinton soap opera will be back in the White House, although good luck governing with her negatives.  Hillary is the most polarizing figure since Nixon.

lol.  This thread is hilarious.  Where exactly is Romney going to win in the South and Northeast again?

Unfortunately, there isn't a single GOP candidate that everyone likes this time around.  From an electability standpoint in the general election, McCain is the way to go.  But, I don't think you can convince all party members to support him in the primaries just because of those perceptions.  

Plus, if the primaries should be decided on perceptions of GE electablility, why are we even having primaries?   Let's just have the party "coronate" someone based on their national positives and negatives.




  

with the bounce after his win in michigan, Romney should make good in SC (why not close second ?), nevada (maybe 1st), Florida (maybe 1st too) and with his money, he can win the super tuesday.

For now, Romney is in the best position to win the nomination. But it's not over.

I like the "holding to the bounce" theory, even though the primaries so far have produced no "bounces" whatsoever into the next primary/caucus.

There have been national bounces, though.  Just for intrigue's sake, I should note this.

I don't support Mc Cain because I am conservative. His stance on immigration, gay marriage and lots of other things are a problem for me. Mc Cain is maybe the most electable in GE, but when I want to vote for a liberal I vote for a democrat.

mc cain has had bounce in Michigan (in polls) just after his win in NH. But fading very fast.

some weeks ago, Romney did good in polls in SC, FL,... but due to "silver medals", he was going down. With the very good coverage after Michigan, I wait a bounce in next SC polls. Wait and see...

McCain is not a liberal.

Ag, you bring up my primary objection to Mrs. Clinton.  Not that I believe the right wing smear machine, but it takes a vigorously polarizing figure to get that machine started.  She would be the one to do it, even if she suddenly found a cure for cancer and declared herself opposed to all tax increases.  She won't be able to govern without a supermajority.

Bush lead Gore by a solid margin all the way through until the DUI came out. Only then did it become competitive. I've yet to see a poll with Romney comfortably ahead of Clinton or Obama. In fact, I have yet to find a poll where Romney is competitive with anyone in a general.

yeah what the Hell Michigan.  I hope Romney isn't uor nomminee. Although i don't despise Romney and would vote for him over any democrat.  I though McCain would win (who i voted for).   Fro some reason my grandparents who are very conservative, supported romney.  Romney ran a whole lot more ads here. I'm not sure i even saw a McCain ad.  we only got mail from McCain. I hope it wasn't the businessman crap and helping michigan with it's recession ads he ran.

Methinks most of you protesteth too much.

Your nervous nellie comments border on hysteria.

If Romney becomes the Republican nominee, and I am not saying he will become the Republican nominee, but if he is the nominee, make no mistake, he will be competitive.  The course of the campaign will see the election tighten considerably.

Hillary Clinton is the most polarizing figure in national politics the nation has ever seen.  Her negatives are very high.  Romney is completely capable of mixing it up with anyone, including the Clintons.

Romney will portray himself as the best one to fix the economy.  The economy will dominate the campaign.  His impressive record as a CEO will back this up, and voters will be impressed. 

You may not like Romney, but he does have a certain appeal and charisma, and he is a candidate to be reckoned with.   

Ok that's great that you think he's a great candidate and that he can win but some of us dislike this man based on his lack of principles, the complete ideology change, the "say anything" factor, etc.

Republican voters are dealing with a flawed deck and doing the best they can, overall.  The divisions within the ranks are oversold. But each of the candidates presents problems.

While Romney just isn't my bag, there is no shining white knight who  justifies some call to arms to slay the Mitt dragon per se.

Mitt would be competitive in the fall against Hillary because he would represent something "new and fresh"....but I can already see the anti-Romney ads about his faith and past change of positions.

Let's get behind better bets like McCain and Huckabee.

Rasmussen poll of core opposition/support: (taken in mid-December before Romney was hit by even more trouble)

(Definitely for-Definitely Against-Net balance)
Romney (19     47      -28)
Clinton ( 30      47      -17)

Now, I guess you can say that Romney is less polarizing than Clinton because fewer people actually like him so that the country is pretty much universally united against him, but...

Oh, and FYI,

McCain (22    33    -11)

I don't see how those poll numbers are useful for measuring anything about a guy that is still not very well known at all, especially before 2008 got underway with the Iowa caucus. You can get readings on Hillary and they'd be much more reliable.

Romney has consistently proven that he is despised by a large part of the general public. Hell, he's running as the conservative candidate in the Republican primary and he is struggling to win THERE despite all his money.

Romney apparently did quite well in Michigan, partly, because he was the most skilled at pandering.

Specifically, writing all sorts of checks to out-of-work auto workers that the U.S. economy could never cash.  Free jobs for everyone!  Goodbye fuel economy standards—THEY'RE clearly why Americans are looking to Honda and Toyota for our next cars.  We want cars with painfully low fuel economies right now, and only Japan has had the courage to give us the gas-guzzlers we're clamoring for!

One of McCain's problems, or so HardRCafe and I were discussing last night, is that he's just not doing the same pandering—he's against ethanol subsidies, for example.

The problem is that Mitt Romney wasn't despised enough to lose in 2002 in a race to govern a liberal state like Massachusetts. He wasn't despised enough to come in 1st or 2nd among registered Republicans in the 3 elections so far. He was endorsed by National Review. Rush Limbaugh has praised him.  If Mitt were to win, he'd have far fewer problems getting the base on board than McCain would.  Mitt is a lot of Republicans' second choice if he's not their first. McCain is at the bottom of the list for a lot of Republican voters. A large part of the general public barely knows him.  The only person I see really struggling to win in a general election is Huckabee. Mitt would have a very good chance of being competitive or even winning. I think people underestimate him at their own peril.   

Fred Thompson called Romney out for pandering, but history is written by the victors, so it's probably plenty of sour grapes on his part: "Everybody was flocking up there to Michigan and promising, in effect, the federal government was going to come in there and bail the entire state out.... Now they say that with a straight face, and apparently it worked for some of them.... Governor Romney was the most successful in doing it."

This is part of the reason that Romney shouldn't be taken lightly. He cares more about winning than making his opponents feel warm and fuzzy. Bush used the same go for the jugular strategy in 2000, and it worked for him.

He got elected by a small margin with a Green candidate taking votes. And the GOP was coming off 3 straight wins in MA Gubernatorial elections when Romney entered the stage. He did get himself despised enough that he couldn't get reelected.

And I still maintain that given his cash advantage and the fact that he's running as the real conservative against tax-raiser Huckabee and moderate maveric McCain he shouldn't be losing every primary that isn't his home state or filled with mormons. Nationally, I don't think he's ever gotten above 20% which is pretty remarkable. He has spent and pandered his way to frontrunner status and is STILL having trouble in the GOP primary. I don't see how he has any chance in the general.