Talk Elections

10,578.24 being what it was at when he took office.

It could, but it will probably balence out around 11,400ish.  That's like 1.5% growth in 8 years. That's what I call conservative!

Yes.

Probably given what is currently forecasted. IIRC, it was down in the 7k range shortly after 9/11.

In 2001 dollars the Dow is actually lower, at 10042.17.  One dollar now was 83 cents in 2001.  My guess is that the Dow will be well under 10000 priced in 2001 dollars.  In 2009 dollars my guess is that it will be about what it was on January 20, 2001.

But remember, Republicans are good for the economy!

One of the great myths spouted by the pundits and MSM.

Probably. 

Tomorrow looks like Der Swartz Tag for the stock market.

Why will it be so black? New economic data? Oh I see now.

Some folks say were headed to a financial "perfect storm". I would say its the result of the following:

-Systematic destruction of US manufacturing resulting from free trade deals signed by Bill Clinton and endorsed by Al Gore.

-Collapsing US dollar which was caused by continuous government deficit spending and government creating money out of nothing.

-Burst of the stock bubble in 2000, followed by burst of the housing bubble and now the mortgage bubble. Now there are no more bubbles... just broken bubbles to be cleaned up.

Ummm... I thought you were in favor of fair trade and now you are bashing Clinton for being too conservative?

...and there are still bubbles. We still have the trade deficit and the feds still owe a quarter of the entire earth GDP in year to foreign banks.

Free trade is the one issue on which I part company with most libertarians. In that respect I consider myself a constitutionalist. The constitution clearly gives congress the authority to levy taxes on imports. I know people will say that's protectionism, oh horrors. Well I say what we have now is reverse protectionism. Domestic manufacturers pay payroll taxes, property taxes and income taxes to the feds and the states. In short they are taxed out of their shorts. But foreign made goods get a free ride- no taxes. How is that fair?

I would eliminate the corporate income tax and levy import taxes at a rate sufficient to be revenue neutral.

I certainly agree that the deficit and the debt are huge problems but I don't think they  meet the definition of "bubbles".

I really would not be too surprised if it went below that by the close of business tomorrow.

I doubt that. The dow could gain if the investment bankers spun it in a positive way. I am guessing the Dow will go below 12000 tomorow.

That's a scary thought... although its certainly possible.

and if it does, we WILL be heading for a reccesion. No questions asked.

It will be interesting to see how my econ professor explains this...he's absolutely hilarious...

Where was this crap when the economy was going swimmingly two years ago?

Agreed. The Asian stock markets have so far fallen 10-15% in a day and a half, Monday and what has happened so far of Tuesday. If we come close to catching up to that rate of decline, the markets will be in complete free-fall tomorrow.

The economy has never been going "swimmingly" in the past eight years. The stock market rising does not mean a strong economy by any stretch of the economist's imagination.

It wasn't. The economy's been crap for the middle class for a long time now.

Well according to MODU's sig, things haven't been that bad...so far.

The markets are hovering below 12000....just as I expected.

Yeah and will probably close there too.

Did you expect the rate cut? Had that not happened, the market would be down 500 points today, at least. (Although I think that would have been a better thing for the economy; Bernanke's panic button is getting old.)

It seems like a coke moment, doesn't it?

Probably.

The worst part is that, the next time the market panics, they'll expect another rate cut. And that time it will have to be at least 75 basis points or else they'll panic anyway that "the Fed isn't doing enough".

The Federal Reserve is the main reason all of this is happening.