Talk Elections

Romney: 25
McCain: 20
Giuliani: 19
Huckabee: 13
Thompson: 12

Link (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_republican_primary)

If someone could enter this into the Atlas, I'd be grateful.

taken post-SC....  cmon Mitty babe

Florida is hard to poll...I really don't buy Romney gaining after SC. He could win it but it would be due to his money closer to the actual election.

Giuliani ought to worry about these numbers. The state is practically do-or-die for him.

If moderates are torn between McCain and Giuliani, then it is not inconceivable that Romney won't pull it off

Remember Florida has a closed primary. No Independents here for McCain to rely on

Dave

I think he knows this as much as any of us do. He practically said he had to win there last week. I don't buy Romney winning after finishing 4th in SC, and since a large group in FL has voted early, no telling if Giuliani did well in that group.

Mason-Dixon is the God of Florida Polling (tm), right?

Hopefully they do a poll here soon.

Given the effort Giuliani has put into FL, I'd be surprised if he wasn't ahead among early voters

Dave

As I've said before, you shouldn't underestimate Romney in these big states where no one else can keep up with him in TV advertising (as also seen in MI).  But I still question whether even Romney has the resources to pull that off on a mass scale on Feb. 5th.  I think even he'll be stretched thin.

IT could be concievable that McCain comes in 3rd here, behind Guiliani AND Romney. If that happens, this is a truly muddled race.

It would still come down to Romney and McCain if Rudy were to finish third. He must post a W in order to stay in the race.


Well I think that's what his campaign is banking on. If they aren't ahead right now, it is time he just hung it up. Hopefully now he'll get a lot of press coverage since he hasn't in the first five states.

Rudy may still win and McCain may get a bronze...that would cause problems.

And it isn't inconceivable to think, considering the fluidity of McCain's supporters, that a loss in Florida could be a real killer to the McSurge we've seen. Many of McCain's supporters are supporting him because of their hatred of Romney and Huckabee, as I know I would in the earlier states to knock off Huckabee/Romney. If Giuliani can win Florida and prove he is still a viable candidate, and his strategy is working as planned, then McCain could lose a lot of support. McCain is hated much more by the base than Giuliani is. I know many who would refuse to vote for McCain. I'm sure Rudy would have the same, but McCain has always had people among the base that have opposed him.

MITT MITT MITT MITT MITT

Holy f**k I hope this is true.

No. They are the Man of Florida Polling (tm). All other pollsters are the Hobgoblins on Florida Polling (tm).

Exactly. Can McCain become the apparent nominee or will the contest be deffered to Super Tuesday...what will happen if there is no deciviveness in Super Tuesday?

The thing is, I don't really see Guliani winning. Romney could win, but I doubt Guliani will. In that case Guliani is really bust, even if he beats McCain (which I doubt he will).

Willy
Golden Arches
Guily?

If McCain wins Florida, he wins.  Period.

Romney is still polling at a miserable 15% or so nationwide, and Super Tuesday is the day those national polls will actually matter.  I mean, sure, he can maybe win in places like Utah and (maybe) Massachusetts, but if McCain's going to win California, New Jersey, and New York.  Huckabee might win some southern states, but that's all the better for McCain—it keeps Romney from scoring wins there, and Huckabee isn't going to be able to unmarginalize himself by winning a handful of southern states.

Republicans should have these kind of primaries more often.  McCain is essentially walking the path I assumed Rudy Giuliani would have walked about six or nine months ago, and it's all because the crazy right are preoccupied with lesser candidates.

Mitt Romney: America's Choice.

I agree with Mr. Moderate. Huckabee is out of this and Romney and Guliani are both fighting for their lives now in Florida. If McCain wins there he will be the nominee. It's possible that Romney will stay in beyond Super Tuesday even if he's without a chance though.