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Election Archive => 2008 Elections => Topic started by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 05:13:29 pm



Title: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 05:13:29 pm
Yes, I, Aizen, have created it this time


I know Vermont closes at 7.
Rhode Island closes at 9
Ohio til 7:30


Dunno about Texas, which one of you fine gents wants to tell me that nugget of info?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 05:14:42 pm
Most of the state closes at 9, El Paso closes at 10. Caucuses start shortly thereafter.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 05:15:16 pm
Multiple time zones:  El Paso (roughly) is 9:00 PM EST.  Rest of Texas is 8:00 PM EST.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 05:15:34 pm
Is this supposed to be a results thread for both parties?  We've always had separate Dem. and GOP results threads in the past.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: YRABNNRM on March 04, 2008, 05:16:27 pm
I think the GOP race is at the point where it's probably unnecessary to have another thread for it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 05:17:32 pm
Most of the state closes at 9, El Paso closes at 10. Caucuses start shortly thereafter.

Bro, it's either 7:00 PM CST or 7:00 PM MST.  I did live there for 23 years.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 04, 2008, 05:28:06 pm
Most of the state closes at 9, El Paso closes at 10. Caucuses start shortly thereafter.

Bro, it's either 7:00 PM CST or 7:00 PM MST.  I did live there for 23 years.  :P
They're celebrating being rid of you by extending voting for an hour.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 05:31:21 pm
Here's the line-up by eastern time:

7:00 Vermont polls close
7:30 Ohio polls close
8:00 Most of Texas polls close, probably no results until 9
8:15 Most of Texas caucuses start
9:00 Rest of Texas polls close, Rhode Island polls close
9:15 Rest of Texas caucuses start


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 05:35:52 pm
I don't have CNN or any news channel, so I'm going to have to wing it entirely through the Internet and what you guys tell me from the news sources.  This means I won't be able to watch all the analysis.  Could I ask a couple of you to watch CNN and a couple to tune to the other two stations, please?  I'll have CNN.com on, but that's about it.

BTW, we are just a little over 80 minutes from Vermont closing.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 05:39:55 pm
MSNBC just released some exit poll numbers. The economy was the top issue in all four states but the Iraq War nearly tied it in Vermont (40%-36%).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 05:41:11 pm
MSNBC just released some exit poll numbers. The economy was the top issue in all four states but the Iraq War nearly tied it in Vermont (40%-36%).

It looks like the whitest state in the union is going to go strong for the black man.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 05:43:08 pm
The economy went 61% in Ohio....48% in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 05:47:52 pm
The economy went 61% in Ohio....48% in Texas.

54% in Rhode Island.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 06:17:23 pm
MSNBC just released some exit poll numbers. The economy was the top issue in all four states but the Iraq War nearly tied it in Vermont (40%-36%).

Haha oh Vermont. Gotta love you.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 06:21:31 pm
Do you think Texas will officially be the state to give McCain the nomination (i.e. the 1191 needed delegates)?  According to CNN.com, he only needs 144 delegates to clinch it and there aren't enough in Ohio and Vermont to make that up, so it would have to be Texas, I guess.

It feels weird to have voted in the Oklahoma primary on February 5 and being down in Texas, though not voting, for their primary on March 4.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 06:39:39 pm
CNN now has interactive maps!  Yay!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

Scroll down a bit and enjoy.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 06:50:36 pm
10 minutes until Vermont Closes
40 minutes until Ohio Closes


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eleden on March 04, 2008, 06:55:35 pm
I just got back from the polls and they were definitely crowded for my area.  Clermont County appears to be a probable Clinton area but I did manage to see three or four Obama signs outside of my polling place.  After putting my Victoria Wulsin for Congress sign back in my car, I went inside and cast my ballot for Barack Obama.  According to a poll worker, the Democratic ballots apparently outnumbered the GOP by a large margin.  Hopefully this bodes well for November...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 06:56:36 pm
The Democratic ballots apparently outnumbered the GOP by a large margin, according to a poll worker. 

In Clermont county? Haha, wow.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 06:57:43 pm
Most of the state closes at 9, El Paso closes at 10. Caucuses start shortly thereafter.

Bro, it's either 7:00 PM CST or 7:00 PM MST.  I did live there for 23 years.  :P

Bah, sorry, I got confused.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:00:05 pm
CNN projects Vermont for Obama and McCain


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:00:31 pm
So they were talking on MSNBC about if she manages to win 3 of the 4 tonight, what is more important? The news headlines....or the actual mathematics of the situation that she is still behind in delegates. What do you think?

+no surprises for Vermont.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:01:38 pm
Vermont exit poll:

Obama 61.8%
Clinton 36.6%

More likely to win in November: 71% Obama, 26% Clinton
Most qualified commander in chief: 50% Obama, 43% Clinton
66% says Clinton has clear plan, 59% Obama

Clinton does better in debate watchers


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:02:17 pm
No surprises yet. Obama appears to have won all demographics in VT.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:02:31 pm
I wonder how well Huckabee will do in Vermont, just for interest on how many Hick Republicans vs Moderate/Mainstream Republicans live there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 07:02:35 pm
Nice.

Unfortunately, no exit polls for Republicans in Vermont.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:02:55 pm
CNN projects Vermont for Obama and McCain

shock


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 07:03:17 pm
Looking at the exit poll demographics, Vermont is such an awesome state. ;D


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:03:36 pm
Yep, 62-37 is the "early" exit poll number.  Not surprised here.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:05:26 pm
So they were talking on MSNBC about if she manages to win 3 of the 4 tonight, what is more important? The news headlines....or the actual mathematics of the situation that she is still behind in delegates. What do you think?

+no surprises for Vermont.

Depends on which three states.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:05:44 pm
Interestingly, Obama did better among those making under $50,000 in Vermont than over.

60-38 among white Vermont Democrats, AKA Vermont Democrats.

Otherwise deeply boring.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 07:06:24 pm
Al Giordano does some math:

Quote
Heres how I do the Texas math, based on exit poll numbers:

- Hispanics will be as much as 35 percent of the Texas vote, and went 64 percent for Clinton to 34 for Obama.

35 x .64 = 22.4 of the total vote (for Clinton)
35 x .35 = 11.9 of the total vote (for Obama)

- African-Americans will be about 20 percent of the Texas vote even with that strong Hispanic turnout (that means a huge turnout among both groups), and went 83 percent for Obama to 16 for Clinton.

20 x .83 = 16.6 (for Obama)
20 x .13 = 3.2 (for Clinton)

Total Hispanic plus black vote:

Obama: 28.5
Clinton: 25.6

Thats a huge advantage for Obama, especially because it means that only 45.9 percent of the vote came from non-Hispanic and non-black votes.

To get to 50 percent, Obama needs 46.8 percent of all remaining (mainly white) votes.
To get to 50 percent, Clinton needs 54.1 percent of all remaining (mainly white) votes.

And since at least 40 percent of those remaining votes - maybe almost 50 percent - are white crossover Independents and Republicans, it looks favorable for an Obama popular vote victory in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 07:06:42 pm
So they were talking on MSNBC about if she manages to win 3 of the 4 tonight, what is more important? The news headlines....or the actual mathematics of the situation that she is still behind in delegates. What do you think?

+no surprises for Vermont.

Depends on which three states.
Ummmmmm.....what? Theres only three left...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:06:54 pm
Interestingly, Obama did better among those making under $50,000 in Vermont than over.

60-38 among white Vermont Democrats, AKA Vermont Democrats.

Otherwise deeply boring.

One interesting thing is a higher percentage thought Clinton has a clear plan for the country, but voted for Obama anyway.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2008, 07:06:59 pm
Obama 0%
Clinton  0%

in Vermont.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:07:50 pm
So they were talking on MSNBC about if she manages to win 3 of the 4 tonight, what is more important? The news headlines....or the actual mathematics of the situation that she is still behind in delegates. What do you think?

+no surprises for Vermont.

Depends on which three states.
Ummmmmm.....what? Theres only three left...

Ah, right. In that case, SERIOUS Clintonmentum.

Hooray for portmanteaux!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:07:54 pm
Al Giordano does some math:

Quote
Heres how I do the Texas math, based on exit poll numbers:

- Hispanics will be as much as 35 percent of the Texas vote, and went 64 percent for Clinton to 34 for Obama.

35 x .64 = 22.4 of the total vote (for Clinton)
35 x .35 = 11.9 of the total vote (for Obama)

- African-Americans will be about 20 percent of the Texas vote even with that strong Hispanic turnout (that means a huge turnout among both groups), and went 83 percent for Obama to 16 for Clinton.

20 x .83 = 16.6 (for Obama)
20 x .13 = 3.2 (for Clinton)

Total Hispanic plus black vote:

Obama: 28.5
Clinton: 25.6

Thats a huge advantage for Obama, especially because it means that only 45.9 percent of the vote came from non-Hispanic and non-black votes.

To get to 50 percent, Obama needs 46.8 percent of all remaining (mainly white) votes.
To get to 50 percent, Clinton needs 54.1 percent of all remaining (mainly white) votes.

And since at least 40 percent of those remaining votes - maybe almost 50 percent - are white crossover Independents and Republicans, it looks favorable for an Obama popular vote victory in Texas.

I just did that same math, and came up with the same thing.  We'll see if the exit polls hold up (early exit polls overestimated Obama in VT, after all...)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:07:57 pm
This is pretty random, but CNN has an County Map on its website!!!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:08:25 pm
Vermont is WTA for McCain, so he gets all 17 delegates, and according to CNN.com is sitting at 1,064 delegates with only 127 needed to clinch the nomination.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:09:08 pm
Obama has 9 out of 15 pledged delegates for Vermont. If he can break 65%, he gets a 10th delegate.



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:10:32 pm
The Super Tuesday Democratic thread was the fifth longest, ever. Can this thread break that mark?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:12:21 pm
I just did that same math, and came up with the same thing.  We'll see if the exit polls hold up (early exit polls overestimated Obama in VT, after all...)

Well. The early figures overestimated him relative to the figures released on close of poll. Slight difference.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:12:33 pm
If Clinton wins Rhode Island, but gets under 56.25%, she's probably looking at a net gain of only 1 delegate. Not very useful for her.

Oh, when I say percentages, I mean of the Clinton & Obama vote, it doesn't matter how many people waste their vote on the Gravelanch or whoever.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 07:14:29 pm
Obama has 9 out of 15 pledged delegates for Vermont. If he can break 65%, he gets a 10th delegate.



He probably will fall short of 65%. Oh well.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:16:25 pm
They can't have that many voters up there.  What's taking them so long?  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:18:26 pm
They can't have that many voters up there.  What's taking them so long?  :P

I think Vermont uses only paper ballots, so they take a while.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:19:11 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:19:56 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

And now we'll start getting those irregularities.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:20:11 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

Will that delay exit poll releases?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:20:59 pm
CNN still has their countdown thing up, so it didn't seem like it.

They're definitely not delaying exit polls until Steubensville is done ;)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:21:11 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

So, no results from the entire states until 8:00 CT?  Ugh, darn weather!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:21:51 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

So, no results from the entire states until 8:00 CT?  Ugh, darn weather!!

No, no results from that county.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 07:22:09 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:22:20 pm
CNN still has their countdown thing up, so it didn't seem like it.

They're definitely not delaying exit polls until Steubensville is done ;)

Is that the place where they're allowing provisional ballots for ten days, or something?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:22:28 pm
I don't think they're legally obligated to hold them until the state closure time, which is still in eight minutes.  Maryland was a different situation, since it was the entire state.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:23:12 pm
CNN still has their countdown thing up, so it didn't seem like it.

They're definitely not delaying exit polls until Steubensville is done ;)

Is that the place where they're allowing provisional ballots for ten days, or something?

Yes (not provisional ballots, though, those are something different...just ballots in general)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 07:23:19 pm
Numbers from just a few hundred votes in VT....McCain and Obama leading:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:23:49 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Most important in Ohio is probably Franklin. In Texas see how those ultra-Republican suburbs go.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:24:52 pm
Carl Bernstein should retire


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:25:32 pm
That's all of Shaftsbury in VT, and nothing else. Robert Frost's hometown (for those who care).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:25:58 pm
5 more minutes until Ohio closes.
Places to watch:
Lucas County(Toledo)
Cuyahoga County(Cleveland)
Hamilton County(Cinncinnatti)
Franklin County(Columbus)



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:26:19 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 07:26:31 pm
Chuck Todd says that if Hillary wins OH 51/49 her best delegate net possible is +5.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Nym90 on March 04, 2008, 07:26:38 pm
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

CNN now has links directly to constantly updated county maps. I don't recall them having those for earlier primaries.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:26:49 pm
Voting in Sandusky County, OH, extended until 9 PM

So, no results from the entire states until 8:00 CT?  Ugh, darn weather!!

No, no results from that county.

Good


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:27:09 pm
These are the times I'm glad I live on the West Coast; results come in not long after I get home.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:27:24 pm
Finally, SW Vermont decides to give us some votes.

If I were in Texas, counties like Harris, Dallas, Tarrant and Travis are too multi-ethnic to read properly.  Bexar and El Paso are too Hispanic.  Hidalgo, Cameron and Webb are good counties for examining the Hispanic border.  It might be best to look at the GOP suburb counties like Collin, Montgomery, Williamson, Fort Bend.  I'm going to try and keep my eye on Beaumont/Port Arthur - racist whites vs. substantial black population.  Some of the east Texas counties too, like Smith (Tyler) would be fun also.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 07:27:38 pm
So, OH exit polls in 1 minute ?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 07:28:14 pm
So, OH exit polls in 1 minute ?

in theory, unless they're held back because of Sandusky


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:29:03 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.
The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:29:52 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.
The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:30:13 pm
Cnn.com live just hinted that Huck may drop out tomorrow.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:30:48 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.
The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.
Why wouldn't it be?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 07:31:19 pm
Cnn.com live just hinted that Huck may drop out tomorrow.

Not really a surprise ...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:31:31 pm
Clinton has a 3 point lead in the Ohio exit polls.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 07:31:35 pm
exit suggest Hillary by a nugget in Ohio


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:31:40 pm
Ohio exit poll:

Clinton 51.1%
Obama 47.9%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:31:54 pm
Exit poll has it at Clinton a shade above 51.  Obama a shade below 48 - for Ohio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 07:32:41 pm
McCain to unveil "1191" delegate tally banner at victory rally.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: auburntiger on March 04, 2008, 07:32:56 pm
FOX calls Ohio for McCain! that puts him at 1106...When Texas comes around, that's all folks


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:33:09 pm
CNN has called Ohio for McCain giving him an immediate 31 delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Thomas Jackson on March 04, 2008, 07:33:21 pm
Quote
Exit poll has it at Clinton a shade above 51.  Obama a shade below 48 - for Ohio.

Good. Not nearly enough for the witch!!!!



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:34:19 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.
The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.
Why wouldn't it be?

Go look at the numbers in Western Oklahoma and transpose them to the Panhandle.  Probably will be less of an Edwards protest vote also. (not the 20-30% in some places)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:34:35 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:34:52 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:35:10 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 07:35:22 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

How much is in though?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:35:25 pm
Sam Spade (or someone else).... So what counties to watch for in Ohio and Texas that may give an indication?

Eastern Texas is all I know, thats the swing part of the state.
The Panhandle should also be swingy because Hispanic voters there are Spanish and not Mexican.

No.  Even though Lubbock will be slightly interesting.
Why wouldn't it be?

Go look at the numbers in Western Oklahoma and transpose them to the Panhandle.  Probably will be less of an Edwards protest vote also. (not the 20-30% in some places)
Oh I see...
I thought the vote might resemble more Western rural voters, rather than OK.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:35:32 pm
In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:35:37 pm
This isn't the sort of decisive Ohio victory Clinton would like/needs.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:35:48 pm
GOP exit poll (for those who care):

McCain 58.4%
Huckabee 32.8%
Paul 6.2%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:35:58 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.
Manufacturing. I thought it would be much closer if he won anyways.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 07:36:10 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?

EDIT: Nevermind, Cuyahoga County is a separate region in the exit poll.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:36:45 pm
It seems unlikely that Clinton will win the pledged delegates from today. Rhode Island may only just cancel out Obama's net 3 or so in Vermont. Ohio will likely net her a few, but Texas will more than cancel that out.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:36:58 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?
No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:37:05 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.
Manufacturing. I thought it would be much closer if he won anyways.

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:37:14 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?
No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.

what


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:37:30 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

How much is in though?

Here's the regional exit poll:

Cuyahoga: 59O-41C
Northeast: 61C-39O
Central: 51O-48C
Northwest: 55O-44C
Southwest: 51O-49C


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:37:46 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?
No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.

That's NORTHWEST Ohio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:38:21 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?
No Toledo, Sandusky etc.
Cleveland is seperate.

That's NORTHWEST Ohio.
Oooops. Brainfart.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:38:23 pm
Interesting regional breakdown in Ohio. Obama leads everywhere except the Northeast, where Clinton cleans up.
Er... isn't the Northeast Cleveland?

EDIT: Nevermind, Cuyahoga County is a separate region in the exit poll.

The northeast is Akron, Youngstown, etc., the heart of the rust belt.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:38:37 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:39:14 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Uh, why not? It's Cleveland.
Manufacturing. I thought it would be much closer if he won anyways.

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.
I thought it was more mixed....
Oh well, I haven't paying attention as much as I did during Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:39:39 pm
Election stealing in Texas.

http://www.click2houston.com/news/15492166/detail.html


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:40:25 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).
That makes sense I guess. For some reason I thought the suburbs would be mainly working class, rather than upscale, but I suppose Cleveland still retains its prominence to an extent.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 07:40:39 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).

OTH, Cleveland is in dire straits from the foreclosure crisis. Shaker Heights, the wealthy suburb you speak of, has huge swathes of the city entirely empty due to foreclosures. I would expect them to fall head over heels for the brainless freezing of interest rates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:41:10 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).

Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:41:19 pm
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=VT

More returns for Vermont.


Obama 818 56% 3
Clinton 597 41% 2

McCain 295 75% 17
Huckabee 53 13% 0
Paul 16 4% 0


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:42:04 pm
Obama is winning in Cuyahoga County. I wasn't expecting that....

Cleveland has a large black population (obviously) and the county itself has some rather upscale suburban areas mostly (IIRC) east of the city).

Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).
Oh yeah like the Eastern European Catholics. I would expect them to go for Clinton though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:43:42 pm
Manufacturing.

All gone. Most of it anyway. There's a reason why the rust belt is called that.

(actually there are still about 80,000 manufacturing jobs left in that county. But that's nothing on what was the case just a few decades back and about 20,000 less than was the case in 2000).

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.

No. Really, really, no.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:44:04 pm
I like the new county maps on the screen.  Makes live a lot easier for me.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:44:51 pm
Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Thomas Jackson on March 04, 2008, 07:45:20 pm
Crunching the Ohio Exit poll numbers leaves me feeling very good. Obama didn't have to win, he just had to avoid the 55%-44% numbers that the polls were projecting.

He apparently has done that.

We may finally be: "Free at last, free at last, thank GOD ALMIGHTY, we are free at last!"


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 07:45:32 pm
Manufacturing.

All gone. Most of it anyway. There's a reason why the rust belt is called that.

(actually there are still about 80,000 manufacturing jobs left in that county. But that's nothing on what was the case just a few decades back and about 20,000 less than was the case in 2000).

Yeah except the manufacturing workers in Cleveland are mostly black.

No. Really, really, no.

Well what I meant was that Cleveland is majority black.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:46:15 pm
Manufacturing.

All gone. Most of it anyway. There's a reason why the rust belt is called that.

(actually there are still about 80,000 manufacturing jobs left in that county. But that's nothing on what was the case just a few decades back and about 20,000 less than was the case in 2000).




Of course but Manufacturing workers have heavy turnout and that is still a big chunk of the county


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 07:47:01 pm
Crunching the Ohio Exit poll numbers leaves me feeling very good. Obama didn't have to win, he just had to avoid the 55%-44% numbers that the polls were projecting.

He apparently has done that.

We may finally be: "Free at last, free at last, thank GOD ALMIGHTY, we are free at last!"

You do realize that she won't drop out if she wins the state (regardless of the marin), right?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 07:47:26 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:47:46 pm
Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.
Yeah especially to see how Catholic and Orthodox ethnic Eastern Europeans vote, compared to those in MA.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:47:58 pm
Well what I meant was that Cleveland is majority black.

IIRC Cleveland City isn't even a majority of Cuyahoga county anymore.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:48:30 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:49:17 pm
They arent counting votes until Sandusky[sp?] closes....or so they said on MSNBC.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:49:51 pm
They arent counting votes until Sandusky[sp?] closes....or so they said on MSNBC.

Wouldn't they be counting votes, but not releasing them?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 07:50:06 pm
So we're going to be here a while.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 07:50:20 pm
Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.
Yeah especially to see how Catholic and Orthodox ethnic Eastern Europeans vote, compared to those in MA.

Or Chicago actually. Some interesting patterns there didst go not noticed.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:50:27 pm
10 minutes or so from most of Texas primary polls closing.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 07:50:37 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)
Eraserhead, put down the joint......this is an intervention.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:50:47 pm
Stupid Sandusky....
I want results!!!!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 07:51:02 pm
So we're going to be here a while.

Thats okay, I don't have to be at work until 11:00 tomorrow.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Cubby on March 04, 2008, 07:51:08 pm
Well what I meant was that Cleveland is majority black.

IIRC Cleveland City isn't even a majority of Cuyahoga county anymore.

Correct, it only makes up 30-35% of it, down from 72% in 1940.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:51:35 pm
They arent counting votes until Sandusky[sp?] closes....or so they said on MSNBC.

Wouldn't they be counting votes, but not releasing them?

Well yeah thats what I meant :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Thomas Jackson on March 04, 2008, 07:52:06 pm
Quote
You do realize that she won't drop out if she wins the state (regardless of the marin), right?

She doesn't have to drop out. The math isn't there for her. It is effectively over as of tonight without big wins in BOTH Ohio and Texas.

I may finally be able to dedicate my full support to McCain without worry. I'm optimistic.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:52:13 pm
Aren't there also a good amount of ethnics there (thinking Kucinich's CD).

Oui. Will be interesting to see how different the results are in the 10th and 11th CDs.
Yeah especially to see how Catholic and Orthodox ethnic Eastern Europeans vote, compared to those in MA.

Or Chicago actually. Some interesting patterns there didst go not noticed.
Yeah, because Obama was from Illinois. I should have paid attention to it but I forgot to....


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 07:52:23 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?

I just heard it from Brokaw on TV. They tied among economic voters, Obama leads among Iraq voters and Clinton leads among healthcare voters.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 04, 2008, 07:52:53 pm
Stupid Sandusky....
I want results!!!!!

How bad is it there?  Up here in Detroit, we're getting snow, but it's nothing a Michigander (or Ohian) isn't used to.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:53:45 pm
Stupid Sandusky....
I want results!!!!!

How bad is it there?  Up here in Detroit, we're getting snow, but it's nothing a Michigander (or Ohian) isn't used to.
Supposevly its Ice Rain, Sleet, and Snow. It sounds pretty bad...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:54:11 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?

I just heard it from Brokaw on TV. They tied among economic voters, Obama leads among Iraq voters and Clinton leads among healthcare voters.

Sounds more like a narrow Clinton win to me, but it depends on how heavy the latter two categories went.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 07:54:32 pm
"I don't think corruption is an equal opportunity employer" - Chris Matthews to Ken Blackwell


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 04, 2008, 07:54:48 pm
Here are the preliminary Ohio results as of 7: P.M. with <1% reporting (bold indicates my official call) (also, delegate totals are NOT final, and as of now are only the Winner Take All delegates for the whole state):

Democrats (too close to call):

Clinton 1,115 60%
Obama 697  38%
Republicans:

McCain 1,009 62% 31 delegates
Huckabee 426 26%
Paul 117 7%
Done Reporting,

Ranting Republican


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:54:50 pm
Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 07:54:58 pm
Clinton 60% to 40% by Obama in Ohio, with random Rural counties reporting.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:55:04 pm
Clinton will be lucky to be up 8 or 10 delegates from Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. I think everyone knows that Obama will win Texas delegates by at least 10. Bye bye, Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:55:08 pm
So we're going to be here a while.

Thats okay, I don't have to be at work until 11:00 tomorrow.

You're lucky. Of course, I don't have to be at school on Wednesdays until 9:05, which is 11:05 your time.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: TCash101 on March 04, 2008, 07:55:15 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?

I just heard it from Brokaw on TV. They tied among economic voters, Obama leads among Iraq voters and Clinton leads among healthcare voters.

Twenty six percent of voters voted on Iraq, 22% on health care.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 07:56:12 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)
Eraserhead, put down the joint......this is an intervention.

I don't currently have a joint in my hand. Currently.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:57:19 pm
Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 07:58:15 pm
Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Which state? If this is Texas, how does that affect the caucus?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 07:58:47 pm
Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.

Which county in OH is Naso living in again ?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 07:59:03 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?

I just heard it from Brokaw on TV. They tied among economic voters, Obama leads among Iraq voters and Clinton leads among healthcare voters.

Twenty six percent of voters voted on Iraq, 22% on health care.

In Texas?

It may come down to early votes, then.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 07:59:09 pm
Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Which state? If this is Texas, how does that affect the caucus?

Its Ohio...not Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: TCash101 on March 04, 2008, 07:59:36 pm
Sounds like Obama may narrowly carry Texas (according to MSNBC's exits anyway)

sourceage?

I just heard it from Brokaw on TV. They tied among economic voters, Obama leads among Iraq voters and Clinton leads among healthcare voters.

Twenty six percent of voters voted on Iraq, 22% on health care.

In Texas?

Yes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 07:59:42 pm
Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Well, let them vote.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:00:00 pm
Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.

Which county in OH is Naso living in again ?

Portage


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:01:03 pm
Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 08:01:31 pm
Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.

Which county in OH is Naso living in again ?

Portage

Thx. Where are other OHans on here living ? Padfoot ?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 08:01:47 pm
Obama Campaign asking for a 2 hour extention of polls in some counties....*sigh*

Which state? If this is Texas, how does that affect the caucus?

Its Ohio...not Texas.

So the polls would be re-opened? That would be unusual. Oh well, let's count every vote.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:02:11 pm
Err, Ohio is starting to report.  60-38 Clinton with a few precincts from Hancock and Pickaway counties.

Which county in OH is Naso living in again ?

Portage

Thx. Where are other OHans on here living ? Padfoot ?

He lives in Columbus, so Franklin County. I think Joe lives in Montgomery.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2008, 08:03:32 pm
Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 08:03:45 pm
Obama has 9 out of 15 pledged delegates for Vermont. If he can break 65%, he gets a 10th delegate.

Seeing as the 2-candidate split is about 60-40, it's looking pretty likely that it'll be a 9-6 split.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 08:04:06 pm
Are we going to get results out of Texas now or are we going to wait until El Paso is closed?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:04:36 pm
Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.

You mean his only county loss? :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2008, 08:05:10 pm
It's one o clock, I've got stuff to do tomorrow and I've no dog in this race.

Nos da.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2008, 08:05:14 pm
Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.

You mean his only county loss? :P

2004 Dem primaries. Duh.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:05:19 pm
I guess it depends on the early votes, then, and how well Clinton has the healthcare issue going for her.

I'd say that Obama is favored in Texas, though, but not by much.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:05:38 pm
Are we going to get results out of Texas now or are we going to wait until El Paso is closed?

I hope the former. Only Canada is fascist enough to say no.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 04, 2008, 08:05:45 pm
Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.

Right, because that wouldn't be treason.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 08:06:29 pm
Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.

You mean his only county loss? :P

2004 Dem primaries. Duh.

Kerry also won Bennington VT in the primary. Essex was the only county he didn't win in the general.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:06:49 pm
It's one o clock, I've got stuff to do tomorrow and I've no dog in this race.

Nos da.

Good bye.

I wish I knew Welsh.

Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.

Right, because that wouldn't be treason.

Nope. Arresting the President is not treasonous.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ebowed on March 04, 2008, 08:07:40 pm
Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.

Right, because that wouldn't be treason.

Was it treason to launch articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton?

Moron.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:07:51 pm
Clinton leads Essex County, VT 67-33 with 7% in.

This was Kerry's only VT county victory in 2004.

You mean his only county loss? :P

2004 Dem primaries. Duh.

Kerry also won Bennington VT in the primary. Essex was the only county he didn't win in the general.

Bennington is, at least so far, Clinton's second-best VT county. So it holds up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 08:08:14 pm
Some TX numbers in:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Probably early votes


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 08:09:25 pm
Some TX numbers in:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Probably early votes

Weird, Texas numbers, but no exit poll (probably because of all of those early voters), and they're still voting in El Paso. Caucuses start in most of the state in 6 minutes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:09:35 pm
Interesting results from Texas....
It looks like a heavily Hispanic county in Texas voted for Clinton super narrowily.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:11:11 pm
Interesting results from Texas....
It looks like a heavily Hispanic county in Texas voted for Clinton super narrowily.

No, she currently has a narrow lead in the county. It's barely in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:11:25 pm
Obama leads Williamson and Collin Counties widely with very little in (Austin and Dallas suburbs/exurbs). Clinton leads some very rural counties with a lot more in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:11:28 pm
What do you think turnout in Loving County will be? 125% of the population?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on March 04, 2008, 08:11:35 pm
Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.

Right, because that wouldn't be treason.

Was it treason to launch articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton?

Moron.

No - but you can't arrest a President until he's been impeached.  The officers doing it would be in huge federal trouble.

Moron.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 08:11:52 pm
Some TX numbers in:

Obama: 58%
Clinton: 41%

Probably early votes

Weird, Texas numbers, but no exit poll (probably because of all of those early voters), and they're still voting in El Paso. Caucuses start in most of the state in 6 minutes.

It's not weird.  This is what always happens in states that vote in two timezones and close at different times.  The networks don't release exit polls or call the state until all polls have closed statewide, whereas, the state itself will release numbers in places where the polls have closed.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:12:00 pm
Interesting results from Texas....
It looks like a heavily Hispanic county in Texas voted for Clinton super narrowily.

No, she currently has a narrow lead in the county. It's barely in.
2% is pretty dang narrow.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 08:12:31 pm
Obama up 2:1 in Travis County (Austin I think).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:13:13 pm
Early numbers look good for Obama.

On the other hand, these are probably early voters.  Caveat emptor.  Clinton should improve.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:13:25 pm
Obama takes the lead in TX because of a flood of results in Austin.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:13:54 pm
These are the early votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:14:08 pm
Results in for VT in every county but Grand Isle, by Lake Champlain.

Obama 59, Clinton 39. Obama carrying every county but Essex, in the northeast.

McCain 70, Huckabee 16, Paul 7. McCain winning every county.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:14:13 pm
Obama leads in Austin and Fort Worth. More rural counties for Clinton. Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ebowed on March 04, 2008, 08:14:24 pm
No - but you can't arrest a President until he's been impeached.  The officers doing it would be in huge federal trouble.

Moron.

Heh, sounds like the President is just about the only case where you believe in innocence until proven guilt.

Anyway, if President Bush walked into my house and began blasting everyone with an AK-47, I'm fairly sure they could arrest the bastard without impeachment.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:15:28 pm
Dallas suburbs heavily for Obama. The city is still not in, however.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:15:54 pm
Obama is actually winning a super Hispanic county!!!!(Jeff Davis)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:15:54 pm
Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 08:16:15 pm
If the early voting holds up then the susa poll that had clinton up 50-48 in early voting is way off.


Plus, if they split election day voting as the early exits suggest then it might go to Obama by a good margin.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:17:13 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:17:20 pm
Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?



181-47.

Probably some affluent precinct.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:17:37 pm
Dallas suburbs heavily for Obama. The city is still not in, however.

Tarrant County is Ft Worth, not Dallas suburbs.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:18:06 pm
Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?



181-47.

Probably some affluent precinct.

Looked it up, the county seat is nearly half black. County as a whole is 18%.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:18:26 pm
Dallas suburbs heavily for Obama. The city is still not in, however.

Tarrant County is Ft Worth, not Dallas suburbs.
Yeah, I think Ft Worth is more wealthy however.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:18:52 pm
Dallas suburbs heavily for Obama. The city is still not in, however.

Tarrant County is Ft Worth, not Dallas suburbs.

Collin?

Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?



181-47.

Probably some affluent precinct.

Looked it up, the county seat is nearly half black. County as a whole is 18%.

And I'll bet that's a majority of the Democrats.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:19:18 pm
Dallas suburbs heavily for Obama. The city is still not in, however.

Tarrant County is Ft Worth, not Dallas suburbs.

Theres Collin tho which is just northeast of Dallas. Includes Plano, Richardson....all the high class la de da areas of Dallas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:19:27 pm
Obama is winning in Dallas...
I think it might be over in Texas, if it keeps going this way in Houston, and if he makes it close in El Paso and San Antonio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:19:37 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:19:56 pm
Jeff Davis County for Obama. The one non-heavily Hispanic border county. (And cue the irony.)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 08:20:02 pm
It would seem that 59% of those who said race was the most important factor voted for Clinton. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:20:15 pm
Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?



181-47.

Probably some affluent precinct.

Looked it up, the county seat is nearly half black. County as a whole is 18%.

Yea, there are fun counties here and there in Texas.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:20:35 pm
Dallas proper in, along with many nondescript panhandle counties.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:20:39 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.

Her heading to DC sounds like her campaign thinks it's at the very least done sufficent to fight on.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:20:54 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:21:14 pm
It would seem that 59% of those who said race was the most important factor voted for Clinton. :P

It is still the South.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:21:42 pm
The urban areas are looking pretty ugly for Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:21:55 pm
Jeff Davis County for Obama. The one non-heavily Hispanic border county. (And cue the irony.)

IIRC Obama was distantly related to Davis... as well as Dick Cheney.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:22:03 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 08:22:18 pm
The urban areas are looking pretty ugly for Clinton.

as expected.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:22:33 pm
Ellis County ftw please...Im really interested to see the results there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:22:42 pm
57-42 Obama, 56-34-5 McCain.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:22:46 pm
Houston is going hardcore for Obama. 62-38


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:22:53 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.

Her heading to DC sounds like her campaign thinks it's at the very least done sufficent to fight on.

...they said she was simply "going home."


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:22:59 pm
The urban areas are looking pretty ugly for Clinton.

as expected.

Uglier than I expected.  Clinton better hope for a strong showing among poll voters.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:23:53 pm
Shes winning San Antonio...thats a fun city :)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:24:04 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.

Her heading to DC sounds like her campaign thinks it's at the very least done sufficent to fight on.

...they said she was simply "going home."

Spinspeak.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:24:16 pm
By the way, in case it isn't clear, the Texas SoS sucks with results and there is way more than 1% in.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:24:21 pm
Obama is winning in Dallas...
I think it might be over in Texas, if it keeps going this way in Houston, and if he makes it close in El Paso and San Antonio.

Dont jinx this... plenty of distance left to go in TX.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 08:24:28 pm
It would seem that 59% of those who said race was the most important factor voted for Clinton. :P

It is still the South.

Actually, I should have said I was referring to Ohio. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:24:42 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 08:25:40 pm
By the way, in case it isn't clear, the Texas SoS sucks with results and there is way more than 1% in.  :P

If there was really only 1% in, then the total number of votes for the Democrats would be about 74.3 million.  Now that would be high turnout!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:26:13 pm
Glasscock 10% for Paul, 6% uncommited. Explain?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:26:26 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.
Her heading to DC sounds like her campaign thinks it's at the very least done sufficent to fight on.
...they said she was simply "going home."

Never anything "simple" about the Clinton's movements during a campaign. :)

That said, "Going Home" is an interesting turn of phrase... but perhaps I'm reading too much into this?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:26:41 pm
Obama is winning in Dallas...
I think it might be over in Texas, if it keeps going this way in Houston, and if he makes it close in El Paso and San Antonio.

Dont jinx this... plenty of distance left to go in TX.
I don't want to jinx it but I am overly eager for Obama to win already. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:26:59 pm
There are alot of uncommited votes on the Republican side...whats up?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:27:09 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

Rascist has one s, not two. And if he was against the New Deal, explain 1936.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:28:00 pm
Glasscock 10% for Paul, 6% uncommited. Explain?

If you live in a county called Glasscock, I guess it's hard to take anything seriously. (The Democratic primary there is more interesting: 2 votes, split evenly, with 20% reporting.)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:28:17 pm
Still no results from Grand Isle County, VT. I wonder what's going on.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:28:29 pm
Hillary will speak no sooner than 9 PM EST and then head to DC according to CNN.
Her heading to DC sounds like her campaign thinks it's at the very least done sufficent to fight on.
...they said she was simply "going home."

Never anything "simple" about the Clinton's movements during a campaign. :)

That said, "Going Home" is an interesting turn of phrase... but perhaps I'm reading too much into this?

I think they just meant spending the night at home but who knows.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:29:10 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

Rascist has one s, not two. And if he was against the New Deal, explain 1936.
Remember he got pissed at Roosevelt, and quit the Vice-Presidency because of Roosevelt's Economic Reforms...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:29:41 pm
Obama is winning in Dallas...
I think it might be over in Texas, if it keeps going this way in Houston, and if he makes it close in El Paso and San Antonio.

Dont jinx this... plenty of distance left to go in TX.
I don't want to jinx it but I am overly eager for Obama to win already. :P

Dont worry... just there's still a fair way to go yet.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 08:29:55 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

Rascist has one s, not two. And if he was against the New Deal, explain 1936.
Remember he got pissed at Roosevelt, and quit the Vice-Presidency because of Roosevelt's Economic Reforms...

Can we please not have this thread be about FDR vs. Garner?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:30:13 pm
Still no results from Grand Isle County, VT. I wonder what's going on.

Isolated islands in Lake Champlain.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:30:22 pm
Hes winning Love County with three votes to her two :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:30:44 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

Rascist has one s, not two. And if he was against the New Deal, explain 1936.
Remember he got pissed at Roosevelt, and quit the Vice-Presidency because of Roosevelt's Economic Reforms...

He quit because he was pissed at Roosevelt for running a third time.

Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

Rascist has one s, not two. And if he was against the New Deal, explain 1936.
Remember he got pissed at Roosevelt, and quit the Vice-Presidency because of Roosevelt's Economic Reforms...

Can we please not have this thread be about FDR vs. Garner?

But it's so...relevant!

Still no results from Grand Isle County, VT. I wonder what's going on.

Isolated islands in Lake Champlain.

All of them?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:30:52 pm
haha, Loving County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:31:06 pm
Might Edwards win Loving?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:31:10 pm
Affluent precinct in Red River County?

Hehehe.  No.
Yeah, lol.
Red River County is Rural Trash America.

Don't knock the home of John Nance Garner :(
Face it John Nance Garner was Rascist, Trash, that was against the New Deal. :P

I was just joking, sheesh.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:31:49 pm
Still no results from Grand Isle County, VT. I wonder what's going on.

Isolated islands in Lake Champlain.

All of them?

That's what Grand Isle consists of.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:32:21 pm
Hes winning Love County with three votes to her two :P

That's all the Democratic votes we'll get from Loving County. They stuff the ballot on the other side.

Still no results from Grand Isle County, VT. I wonder what's going on.

Isolated islands in Lake Champlain.

All of them?

That's what Grand Isle consists of.

One of the most interesting counties in America, then.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:32:56 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Cubby on March 04, 2008, 08:33:19 pm
What do you think turnout in Loving County will be? 125% of the population?

In the 2000 General Election, they had 125 votes even though the total population was 67

In the 2004 Democratic Primary, they had 52 votes, even though the population was 51

In the 2004 G.E., they had 80 votes, even though the population was estimated as 51


So turnout could be anywhere from 100% of total pop (not registered voters), to 175%

Red River County for Obama (OK border, near LA).

Katrina Dispora?

They aren't concentrated enough anywhere outside Louisiana, except Houston and San Antonio, to make a difference.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 08:33:33 pm
Democrats' Upcoming States:

Mar 8 - Wyoming Caucuses
Mar 11 - Mississippi Primary
Apr 22 - Pennsylvania Primary
May 6 - Indiana Primary, North Carolina Primary
May 13 - West Virginia Primary
May 20 - Kentucky Primary, Oregon Primary
Jun 3 - Montana Primary, South Dakota Primary
Jun 14 - Puerto Rico Caucuses


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:34:00 pm
Romney winning Gillespie. WTF?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 08:34:08 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 08:34:25 pm
Supposedly a measure has passed in Brattleboro, Vermont which calls for the indictment of Bush and Cheney, meaning if they ever enter Brattleboro they are to be arrested. Awesome.


What? That's hilarious. <3 Vermont


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:35:00 pm
lol @ racial voting in east Texas...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 08:35:07 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?

Yep


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 08:35:42 pm
So, with almost all of the 900.000 early votes counted, it looks like SUSA's early voting poll (50% Clinton, 48% Obama) was horribly wrong and BELO poll was most accurate in predicting a 59-41 early vote for Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:36:05 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?
Yes, I wouldn't say Racist though....


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:36:58 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?
Yes, I wouldn't say Racist though....

Contrary to what you think, there ARE rasicts in the Democratic party. Holdovers from the Solid South days, mostly.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Cubby on March 04, 2008, 08:37:07 pm
Glasscock 10% for Paul, 6% uncommited. Explain?

If you live in a county called Glasscock, I guess it's hard to take anything seriously. (The Democratic primary there is more interesting: 2 votes, split evenly, with 20% reporting.)

Glasscock County, TX was Bush's best county in the nation in 2000. He got 91 point something percent there. Its next to his old home of Midland. The county is so Republican it didn't even have a Democratic Primary in 2004, along with 3 Panhandle counties.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:37:42 pm
So, with almost all of the 900.000 early votes counted, it looks like SUSA's early voting poll (50% Clinton, 48% Obama) was horribly wrong and BELO poll was most accurate in predicting a 59-41 early vote for Obama.

That margin will narrow a decent bit - The border and El Paso aren't in yet. 

Ah, no surprise - Hillary 80-20 in Laredo.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 08:37:55 pm
So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:38:25 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?
Yes, I wouldn't say Racist though....

Contrary to what you think, there ARE rasicts in the Democratic party. Holdovers from the Solid South days, mostly.
Of course there are some, but I would say that farmers in the Panhandle are not racist compared to those in Eastern Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: TCash101 on March 04, 2008, 08:38:37 pm
So, with almost all of the 900.000 early votes counted, it looks like SUSA's early voting poll (50% Clinton, 48% Obama) was horribly wrong and BELO poll was most accurate in predicting a 59-41 early vote for Obama.

That margin will narrow a decent bit - The border and El Paso aren't in yet. 

Ah, no surprise - Hillary 80-20 in Laredo.

I knew Ted Kennedy shouldn't have sung.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:39:07 pm
So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely

I'd assume that's the case, but I'm not very knowledgable about these things.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:39:28 pm
So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely

About half the votes should come from early voting, I suspect.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 08:39:36 pm
So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely

That's what they did in California.

Also, early voting will narrow. Cameron, Hidalgo, and El Paso are some of the strongest early voting counties, and are also Clinton territory.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: HokeyDood on March 04, 2008, 08:39:53 pm
people aged 65+ in Ohio: 70-29 Clinton

ughhhh.....  old people


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:40:12 pm
people aged 65+ in Ohio: 70-29 Clinton

ughhhh.....  old people


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:40:22 pm
Looks like Edwards still has strong support in the Texas panhandle.
Thats good, right? The racist, conservative Dems will make up his vote, yes?
Yes, I wouldn't say Racist though....

Contrary to what you think, there ARE rasicts in the Democratic party. Holdovers from the Solid South days, mostly.
Of course there are some, but I would say that farmers in the Panhandle are not racist compared to those in Eastern Texas.

Have you been to the panhandle? Neither have I, so we're not qualified to talk about this.

people aged 65+ in Ohio: 70-29 Clinton

ughhhh.....  old people

At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:41:02 pm
CNN - Bush to endorse McCain


Haha...



At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.

Don't be so sure.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:42:00 pm
I'm still looking for an explanation for Gillespie County.


At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.

Don't be so sure.

Uh, they're the base. They always turn out.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:42:07 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:43:39 pm


At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.

Don't be so sure.
[/quote]

Uh, they're the base. They always turn out.
[/quote]

::)

Uh, thanks. I was saying that they might not vote Dem in the General.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:44:50 pm
20% of precincts are reporting in Loving County. That means they have 5 precincts or more. If I didn't know about what goes on there, I'd be incredulous at that many precincts in a county without a single public school.



At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.

Don't be so sure.

Uh, they're the base. They always turn out.
[/quote]

::)

Uh, thanks. I was saying that they might not vote Dem in the General.
[/quote]

If they turn out every year to vote in the Democratic Primary, why wouldn't they vote Democratic?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:45:03 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 08:45:41 pm
Texas is looking pretty good.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 08:45:51 pm
I frankly think that anyone talking about racism from a place they've probably never been to or from people they've never met is just pure bulls*** and they're trying to explain off certain results. Act like adults people.

Here's the link for Texas county-by-county results for President and much more.

http://www.chron.com/apps/ElectionPub/local.mpl?action=apdisplay&nextview=appublic&area=all&div=CTY&election_id=1036&ru=Texas


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on March 04, 2008, 08:46:08 pm
Quote
Quote


At least they'll vote Democratic in the GE.

Don't be so sure.

Uh, they're the base. They always turn out.

::)

Uh, thanks. I was saying that they might not vote Dem in the General.

the very poor basically have to vote democratic


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:46:42 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.

But Romney? Followed by Huckabee, PAUL, and then McCain?

I frankly think that anyone talking about racism from a place they've probably never been to or from people they've never met is just pure bulls*** and they're trying to explain off certain results. Act like adults people.

Me and EMD aren't adults. Sorry.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:46:51 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Ben. on March 04, 2008, 08:47:15 pm
Texas is looking pretty good.

Is this down to absentee ballots getting counted first?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 08:47:32 pm

If they turn out every year to vote in the Democratic Primary, why wouldn't they vote Democratic?

Uh, what? Whites turn out in the Dem primary. Whites tend to vote Republican.

This is such a mind numbing conversation.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 08:48:05 pm
Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes are beating Rudy Giuliani in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:48:35 pm
Duncan Hunter and Alan Keyes are beating Rudy Giuliani in Texas.
lol


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:48:43 pm
A few more results in Ohio, but no real change. I wonder what's happening there.


If they turn out every year to vote in the Democratic Primary, why wouldn't they vote Democratic?

Uh, what? Whites turn out in the Dem primary. Whites tend to vote Republican.

This is such a mind numbing conversation.

But whites aren't a voting bloc.

And you're right. It is. Neither of us get what the other is saying.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:49:17 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:49:41 pm
Grand Isle, VT, in for Obama and McCain.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 08:50:28 pm
Breaking PR stunt  - Hillary campaign holding emergency conference call about caucus intimidation and irregularities!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:50:45 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 08:50:54 pm
Vermont 37% in 59-39 Obama...taking kind of a long time

Rhode Island closes in 10


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:51:01 pm
Breaking PR stunt  - Hillary campaign holding emergency conference call about caucus intimidation and irregularities!

I can't tell if you're joking.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:51:10 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.
Well I meant in the Midwest, German Catholics are the Moderate Republicans, while Scandinavian Protestants are Liberal Democrats, and English Evangelicals are Conservative Republicans.
That could be regional though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 08:51:25 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.

Be safe.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 08:51:49 pm
Breaking PR stunt  - Hillary campaign holding emergency conference call about caucus intimidation and irregularities!

I can't tell if you're joking.

True. MSNBC's reporting it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Snowguy716 on March 04, 2008, 08:51:54 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.
The German Catholics in Minnesota really only went for the Democrat once, in 1960, for JFK, for obvious reasons, one more comma to give the sentence a nice even number of them.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:52:30 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?

That's the Hill Country? Its politics are completely different from the impression I got from reading Caro.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 08:52:47 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.
The German Catholics in Minnesota really only went for the Democrat once, in 1960, for JFK, for obvious reasons, one more comma to give the sentence a nice even number of them.
Well they are still more moderate than English Evangelicals and are more split than them.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 08:53:37 pm
Cuyahoga County, OH, polling stations open until 9 PM


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:53:56 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.
Well I meant in the Midwest, German Catholics are the Moderate Republicans, while Scandinavian Protestants are Liberal Democrats, and English Evangelicals are Conservative Republicans.
That could be regional though.

Not here - most of the folks who settled in German Texas were from Bavaria and Bohemia.  Not northern Germany.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:54:20 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.

Be safe.

The weather sucks here....but no tornados. We are under a watch tho...

besides that

any news on exit polls?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:54:41 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.
Well I meant in the Midwest, German Catholics are the Moderate Republicans, while Scandinavian Protestants are Liberal Democrats, and English Evangelicals are Conservative Republicans.
That could be regional though.

Not here - most of the folks who settled in German Texas were from Bavaria and Bohemia.  Not northern Germany.

And that's where the Catholics are from.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 08:54:51 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?

LBJ


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:55:50 pm
Gillespie County - Germans, Germans, Germans.  My parents have a place up there.  Republican stronghold since the Civil War.
Kind of odd, considering German Catholics are more moderate nowdays, than English Evangelicals.

Those folks ain't moderate, cowboy.  Though I seem to remember LaFollette performing well there.

Interestingly enough - who was born in Gillespie County?

LBJ

Rhetorical question.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 08:57:14 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.

Be safe.

The weather sucks here....but no tornados. We are under a watch tho...

besides that

any news on exit polls?
You are a dedicated man. You should be proud. :D


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 08:57:25 pm
Hidalgo bumped Hillary up a couple of percent - 75-25 Clinton.

The three big counties still left to report earlies - El Paso, Cameron and Denton.  First two will favor Clinton (probably by a lot).  Denton should favor Obama by a good bit. (UNT is up there)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 08:57:47 pm
Just 2 more minutes left int he GOP nomination race.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 08:58:42 pm
RI about to close.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 08:58:57 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.

Be safe.

The weather sucks here....but no tornados. We are under a watch tho...

besides that

any news on exit polls?
You are a dedicated man. You should be proud. :D

Ive been through 6 hurricanes and 2 major tornados....nothing special :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:00:08 pm
Hidalgo came in. Smaller shift than I expected.

Remaining large counties are El Paso (strong Clinton), Cameron (strong Clinton), Denton (strong Obama) and Galveston (unknown). Of course, these are only early votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 09:01:24 pm
The Dallas CBS affiliate just called Texas for McCain giving him the nomination.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:02:04 pm
Texas exit poll:

Clinton 50.0%
Obama 48.6%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:02:22 pm
The Dallas CBS affiliate just called Texas for McCain giving him the nomination.


Hopefully the Dems will be wrapped up too after this. Although the GOP has really been done for a while


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 09:02:32 pm
Texas exit poll:

Clinton 50.0%
Obama 48.6%

that does not count early voters, correct?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:02:59 pm
Exit poll suggests tiny Clinton lead in TX. No idea how it factors in early votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 09:03:10 pm
Texas exit poll:

Clinton 50.0%
Obama 48.6%

that does not count early voters, correct?
*crosses fingers*


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 09:03:19 pm
So the tornado sirens are going off here...so I will be away from my laptop for a bit.

Be safe.

The weather sucks here....but no tornados. We are under a watch tho...

besides that

any news on exit polls?
You are a dedicated man. You should be proud. :D

Ive been through 6 hurricanes and 2 major tornados....nothing special :P

I'm a veteran of 6 hurricanes and 1 Carolina Hurricane winning the Stanley Cup. :D


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:03:32 pm
Texas exit poll:

Clinton 50.0%
Obama 48.6%

Are early voters factored into that? Regardless, looks like a nailbiter...just the way I like it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:03:37 pm
Rhode Island exit poll:

Clinton 51.6%
Obama 47.5%

And, no, it doesn't include early voters.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:03:56 pm
Also, RI is much, much closer than I expected in the exit poll.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 09:04:20 pm
RI Exit Poll:

Clinton - 51.5%
Obama - 47.5%

Closer than I expected ...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 04, 2008, 09:04:28 pm
So do they just throw in all the early votes to one precinct or something? Because at the current rate there'd be somewhere in the range of 70-80 million voters in the Texas Democratic primary, which I find fairly unlikely
Early votes are attributed to their precinct.  I think there are provisions to begin counting during election day, and different counties may do it differently.  It looks like Dallas County dumped all their early votes at once, while I think Harris County does them as part of each precinct.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:05:26 pm
I actually had Rhode Island going for Obama for a while in my prediction map... no real logic behind it. I switched to Clinton at the end though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:05:41 pm
I caution about exit polls from the RI area of the world.  We'll see...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 09:08:06 pm
Looks like we are going to get some popular vote heartbreakers tonight.... but she isn't going to make any real headway in the delegate race. So I guess the inevitable will be dragged out for a while.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:09:22 pm
Rhode Island - 52-47 Clinton with 1% in


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 09:09:38 pm
Looks like we are going to get some popular vote heartbreakers tonight.... but she isn't going to make any real headway in the delegate race. So I guess the inevitable will be dragged out for a while.
What happened to your Texas call?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:10:10 pm
Texas exit poll suggests Limbaugh did indeed have a big effect on the race; Republicans only 53-46 for Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 09:10:41 pm
Looks like we are going to get some popular vote heartbreakers tonight.... but she isn't going to make any real headway in the delegate race. So I guess the inevitable will be dragged out for a while.
What happened to your Texas call?

I'm recalling it. I hope I can re-recall it though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:11:07 pm
Texas exit poll suggests Limbaugh did indeed have a big effect on the race; Republicans only 53-46 for Obama.


Yikes


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:12:00 pm
Texas exit poll suggests Limbaugh did indeed have a big effect on the race; Republicans only 53-46 for Obama.

Watch the GOP suburb counties to see if Obama's margins start declining as the night goes on.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 09:13:05 pm
Goddamn it. Goddamn this whole night. Hmmm.....


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 09:13:48 pm
We interrupt your Presidential coverage to bring you a special Congressional races update:

In Texas, John Cornyn is cruising to renomination over conservative nutcase Larry Kilgore 85% - 15%...   On the Democratic side Rick Noriega has 52% followed by Gene Kelly at 27%... In TX-22 Sekula-Gibbs leads the field with 27% followed by Olson at 24% and Talton at 17%... In TX-14 Ron Paul has a solid lead with 68%... Ralph Hall is also winning easily in TX-04 with 65%... all numbers very early

In Ohio, no results from OH-10 yet... Steve Austria is easily winning the Republican primary in the open OH-07 seat with 71%... all numbers very early

Next update when I feel like it


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:14:00 pm
Early El Paso voting:

Clinton 34,838
Obama 14,599


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 09:14:56 pm
Early El Paso voting:

Clinton 34,838
Obama 14,599
Game.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 09:15:13 pm
A handful of votes from RI are out, Clinton & McCain leading:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:15:18 pm
Early El Paso voting:

Clinton 34,838
Obama 14,599
Game.

?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:15:53 pm
Early El Paso voting:

Clinton 34,838
Obama 14,599

Still waiting on Denton, Cameron and Galveston.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 09:16:29 pm
Do we get any caucus numbers tonight?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:16:50 pm
Do we get any caucus numbers tonight?

They just started. But eventually.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 09:17:06 pm
So what's everyone's grand opinion, are the Democrats as a party committing suicide and cause McCain to win in November or does this not matter and the Democrat will still be the favorite to win the general?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 09:18:11 pm
I wanted that closer. Alot closer.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 09:18:51 pm
Do we get any caucus numbers tonight?

They just started. But eventually.

Well, for most of the state, they actually started an hour ago.  But in most of the caucus states, the results didn't even start coming in until more than 1hr 30 min after caucus start time....in come cases much later than that.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:18:58 pm
Denton:

Obama 16,953
Clinton 11,543

Cameron:

Clinton 14,671
Obama 6,534

Galveston:

Obama 9,636
Clinton 9,391


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:18:58 pm
By the way, Gillespie County has been fixed.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 09:20:31 pm
Huckabee is currently in the process of dropping out if anyone wasn't watching TV


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:20:43 pm
Denton:

Obama 16,953
Clinton 11,543

Cameron:

Clinton 14,671
Obama 6,534

Galveston:

Obama 9,636
Clinton 9,391

So Obama leads early voting around 53-46, then, maybe 54-45. Which means that he should squeak by with about 51-48 if the exit polls were right and Sam is right that early voting is 40-50% of the votes. If it's closer to a quarter, the night may be very long.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 8 out of 11 is not deserved on March 04, 2008, 09:21:06 pm
Fox Clinton wins RI


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 09:22:20 pm
MSNBC agrees


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:22:25 pm
Seems premature with such a close exit poll, but no surprise. Obama wins Newport County, as I predicted.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 09:22:43 pm
Huckabee is currently in the process of dropping out if anyone wasn't watching TV

He seems like hes about to cry...poor Huck :/


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:23:45 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:24:44 pm
Also, German Catholic country seems to have favored Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 09:24:52 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 09:25:38 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

What about Massachusetts?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: TCash101 on March 04, 2008, 09:25:46 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

I think Mass is OK in their book, too.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: John Dibble on March 04, 2008, 09:26:00 pm
Gah, I wish they'd hurry up with the results reporting. I'm tired of waiting already. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:26:04 pm
Hays County might be interesting to see the early votes for. Alcon?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 09:26:24 pm
I forgot Mass...whoops :X


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 8 out of 11 is not deserved on March 04, 2008, 09:26:32 pm
It may be stupid OH also.  I'm still optimistic on TX and believe Obama will win more delegates and maybe more votes tonight


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:26:44 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

NY and NJ are in New England? News to me.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:27:13 pm
Also, German Catholic country seems to have favored Obama.

Rich white Austinites/San Antonioites should comprise most of the Dem vote there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 09:27:47 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

New Jersey and New York are not part of New England.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 09:27:58 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

NY and NJ are in New England? News to me.
`

They were a part of Andros' Dominion.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:28:30 pm
Hays County might be interesting to see the early votes for. Alcon?

San Marcos.  Texas State is located there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:29:15 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

New Jersey and New York are not part of New England.


but they're still stupid m i rite?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 09:29:51 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

New Jersey and New York are not part of New England.


but they're still stupid m i rite?

Yah


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 09:29:56 pm
Slate is saying that the Clinton people are seriously pissed about the Texas caucuses and are throwing some hefty accusations - this isn't the normal "wah wah caucuses suck". If anyone finds the link please post it


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Kevin on March 04, 2008, 09:30:05 pm
Also, German Catholic country seems to have favored Obama.

Is this in Ohio?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 09:30:34 pm
Stupid Rhode Island.

It joins New York, New Hampshire, Mass, and New Jersey as the only REAL states in New England....according to the Clinton Campaign :P

New Jersey and New York are not part of New England.


but they're still stupid m i rite?

I have to admit this Democrat Civil War is getting fun to watch.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:30:45 pm
Also, what did I say about not trusting exit polls in this area of the world (RI).  If Obama doesn't win Newport, that should be a shock.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:30:56 pm
Also, German Catholic country seems to have favored Obama.

Is this in Ohio?

Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:31:01 pm
Hays County might be interesting to see the early votes for. Alcon?

Obama 4,772
Clinton 3,071


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: TCash101 on March 04, 2008, 09:33:01 pm
Huckabee is STILL talking! End it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 09:33:47 pm
Ohio looks increasingly depressing ... :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 8 out of 11 is not deserved on March 04, 2008, 09:33:59 pm
Slate is saying that the Clinton people are seriously pissed about the Texas caucuses and are throwing some hefty accusations - this isn't the normal "wah wah caucuses suck". If anyone finds the link please post it

totally planned


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on March 04, 2008, 09:34:58 pm
Huckabee is STILL talking! End it.

What's Huckabee saying? I couldn't be bothered watching his speech on FOX News or CNN, so I have decided to go onto the Computer.

Looks like I may get 3/4 predictions right on the Democratic side and 4/4 on the GOP side. I shouldn't have misunderestimated Obama in Texas. Oh well.....atleast Hillary's objective of becoming the Democratic nominee has taken a drastically fall, with her only leading in Ohio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 09:35:04 pm
Ohio looks increasingly depressing ... :P

Well....hes winning Toledo atleast?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 04, 2008, 09:35:23 pm
Huckabee is STILL talking! End it.

He needs all the face time he can get now for the 2012 Republican nomination.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 09:36:28 pm
Huckabee basically quoted a bunch of Bible verses, compared himself to some old baseball player whose name I can't remember, compared himself to the people at the Alamo, thanked his staff, said how wonderful McCain was, and then left the stage until 2011


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 09:37:16 pm
misunderestimated

What a Bush.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:38:58 pm
Wait for Cincy, Franklin and Cuyahoga to start coming in seriously before being depressed about it.  But the rest of Ohio (except Toledo) - ugly for Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 09:41:15 pm
Wait for Cincy, Franklin and Cuyahoga to start coming in seriously before being depressed about it.  But the rest of Ohio (except Toledo) - ugly for Obama.

It's probably due to those Toledoans that are descendants of the settlers that fought in the Border War for Ohio against Michigan.

(What? If we're going to spend time talking about "German Catholics", I can claim that.)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 09:42:40 pm
Obama wins Loving County... with 32% of the vote, or 7 votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Tender Branson on March 04, 2008, 09:43:28 pm
Looking at the OH and TN border counties, KY and WV are going to be 2:1 Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:44:19 pm
Looking at the OH and TN border counties, KY and WV are going to be 2:1 Clinton.

Her new firewalls


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 09:44:37 pm
Looking at the OH and TN border counties, KY and WV are going to be 2:1 Clinton.

Anything special here?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 09:45:27 pm
Poor Huckabee. I still like him as a person.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 09:46:52 pm
Poor Huckabee. I still like him as a person.

So do I, he's a great, great guy and I do wish him the best as he thinks about a 2012 run.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 09:47:48 pm
It looks like Obama has got Texas in the bag, by a decent margin as long as Brownsville, McAllen and El Paso don't got to much against him.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 09:48:23 pm
Check out this tidbit, and this is a primary.

Quote
An Obama source emails First Read that the campaign is expecting turnout between 3.6 to 3.8 million in the Texas Democratic primary.

Consider that John Kerry received 2.8 million votes in the Lone Star State in the 2004 general election.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:49:32 pm
CNN is really slow at compiling early votes.  There are a ton of counties which have been reporting for a while but aren't included.  Then again, it's Texas, so there are ten gazillion counties.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 09:49:46 pm
Check out this tidbit, and this is a primary.

Quote
An Obama source emails First Read that the campaign is expecting turnout between 3.6 to 3.8 million in the Texas Democratic primary.

Consider that John Kerry received 2.8 million votes in the Lone Star State in the 2004 general election.

The Texas Democrats are energized for the first time in a long time methinks... usually it must be pretty depressing being a Democrat in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:50:33 pm
Check out this tidbit, and this is a primary.

Quote
An Obama source emails First Read that the campaign is expecting turnout between 3.6 to 3.8 million in the Texas Democratic primary.

Consider that John Kerry received 2.8 million votes in the Lone Star State in the 2004 general election.

That's not surprising.  Btw, Texas is far from over, unless Obama performs better same day of than in early voting, which I suspect may not be the case here.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 09:51:13 pm
CNN is really slow at compiling early votes.  There are a ton of counties which have been reporting for a while but aren't included.  Then again, it's Texas, so there are ten gazillion counties.

Where can we get uptodate numbers?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:51:54 pm
CNN is really slow at compiling early votes.  There are a ton of counties which have been reporting for a while but aren't included.  Then again, it's Texas, so there are ten gazillion counties.

Where can we get uptodate numbers?

You can't, unless you go to each individual county web site...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:53:58 pm
lol @ lying RI voters (Catholics)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:54:49 pm
Wham.  Hispanic counties in.

Bad news for Obama: he needs to not underperform his exit poll numbers, or have >50% early votes.

Good news for Obama: Almost all of his best counties haven't reported any poll results at all.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:55:57 pm
Hahaha, look at CNN's updated Rhode Island exit poll.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 09:56:21 pm
Wham.  Hispanic counties in.

Bad news for Obama: he needs to not underperform his exit poll numbers, or have >50% early votes.

Good news for Obama: Almost all of his best counties haven't reported any poll results at all.

Have any counties (except for nothing ones) reported actual numbers yet?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 09:58:51 pm
No, but there are a few semi-nothing Clinton counties.  Clinton counties are, I'm relatively sure, more in than Obama counties.

We'll see.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 09:59:40 pm
I guess really the only thing that we can take out of the Democratic races tonight, is "Bring On Pennsylvania!!"


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:00:03 pm
Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:00:07 pm
Wham.  Hispanic counties in.

Bad news for Obama: he needs to not underperform his exit poll numbers, or have >50% early votes.

Good news for Obama: Almost all of his best counties haven't reported any poll results at all.

Have any counties (except for nothing ones) reported actual numbers yet?

Nueces has.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: DJ09 on March 04, 2008, 10:00:51 pm
On the Texas secretary of State website the results are

50-Obama
49-CLinton

with 7 percent in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:01:28 pm
By the way, what are we going to do in the 6 weeks separating Mississippi (March 11) and Pennsylvania (April 22).  We might go nuts as political junkies not having new numbers coming in, but it might give the non-political junkies a nice break.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:02:23 pm
Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.

Ohio doesn't have early voting AFAIK.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: King Jellybean on March 04, 2008, 10:02:32 pm
with 10% in, Obama is inching back up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:03:16 pm
Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.

I never really counted Ohio as a strong Obama state.  I always had a feeling it would go for Clinton.  Texas I was unsure about all the way, and still am to some degree, though I'm having more and more confidence that it will go to Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:03:23 pm
Huntsville is nearly all in (narrow Obama win b/c of the high black pop).

My bad on Ohio not having early voting, if it doesn;t.  :)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:04:00 pm
Is this number right on CNN?  Cuyahoga early voting Clinton 50-48???

If so, Ohio is over.

I never really counted Ohio as a strong Obama state.  I always had a feeling it would go for Clinton.  Texas I was unsure about all the way, and still am to some degree, though I'm having more and more confidence that it will go to Obama.

If it isn't early voting, please ignore the above post.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 10:04:21 pm
I like McCain's subtle jab at Bush. :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 10:08:17 pm
If you want to hear the Clinton campaign's emergency speech on being locked out of caucuses by Obama supporters, a Politico reporter has it so you can listen to it.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Bauers_conference_call_ambush.html


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:09:22 pm
I don't know whether Franklin 55-45 Obama is enough.  Let's see about Hamilton/Cuyahoga.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 04, 2008, 10:10:06 pm
CNN analysts are saying that the Texas Dem caucuses are a massive logistical failure.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 8 out of 11 is not deserved on March 04, 2008, 10:11:22 pm
CNN analysts are saying that the Texas Dem caucuses are a massive logistical failure.

CNN = Clinton Network News


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:13:21 pm
I don't know whether Franklin 55-45 Obama is enough.  Let's see about Hamilton/Cuyahoga.
I think Cuyahoga and Hamilton will start trending Obama soon enough.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:13:41 pm
Just returned from the caucus: Obama won 2-1 or so and I waited in line for 2 hours. Quick updates anyone?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:14:17 pm
Roberts, Hansford and Armstrong Counties report no votes in the Democratic primary. Some things don't change.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:15:34 pm
Obama must be looking good in Texas considering Harris and Travis aren't in, right? He also seems to be keeping it close in Bexar.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 10:15:47 pm
Just returned from the caucus: Obama won 2-1 or so and I waited in line for 2 hours. Quick updates anyone?

McCain sweeps all four states and mathematically clinches the nomination.  Obama wins VT.  Clinton wins RI.  OH & TX not called on the Dem side.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on March 04, 2008, 10:16:14 pm
Could somebody please tell me what the results are?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 10:16:28 pm
Clinton winning Athens, OH.

Hah.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:17:11 pm
Clinton winning Athens, OH.

Hah.

Hey!  I was about to post that.

Yeah, if Obama can't win this county, I think he's done in Ohio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 10:18:51 pm
Clinton winning Athens, OH.

Hah.

Hey!  I was about to post that.

Yeah, if Obama can't win this county, I think he's done in Ohio.

it's 93% white...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 04, 2008, 10:20:06 pm
Could somebody please tell me what the results are?

Which results?  The overall results for all four states?  Here's what we have so far:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:20:34 pm
Clinton winning Athens, OH.

Hah.

Hey!  I was about to post that.

Yeah, if Obama can't win this county, I think he's done in Ohio.

it's 93% white...

Ohio University is located here.  Very liberal (my brother went there).  Look at the swing to Kerry in 2004 and the Nader vote in 2000.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:21:11 pm
Just returned from the caucus: Obama won 2-1 or so and I waited in line for 2 hours. Quick updates anyone?

Hey, Lief, where are you at in Texas?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:22:00 pm
Austin, so the 2-1 victory wasn't very surprising, but fun nonetheless.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:22:17 pm
The rural area's in Ohio seem to be filling out. Obama should start closing the gap soon....Hopefully.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:22:21 pm
Big fail by Obama in Ohio sadly.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 10:22:42 pm
Just returned from the caucus: Obama won 2-1 or so and I waited in line for 2 hours. Quick updates anyone?

Hey, Lief, where are you at in Texas?

Friends of mine have been pretty much saying the same thing in Dallas, sitting in lines for about 2 hours and being packed in their caucus locations.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:23:05 pm
Clinton winning Athens, OH.

Hah.

Hey!  I was about to post that.

Yeah, if Obama can't win this county, I think he's done in Ohio.

it's 93% white...

Ohio University is located here.  Very liberal (my brother went there).  Look at the swing to Kerry in 2004 and the Nader vote in 2000.

You're right, but the non-college areas are Clinton heartland, so it's not an Obama fortress by any means. Still, it's clear he won't win Ohio, it's just going to get a lot closer.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 04, 2008, 10:23:42 pm
Roberts, Hansford and Armstrong Counties report no votes in the Democratic primary. Some things don't change.
You can't have a primary in a county if you don't have a county chairman.  It's the law.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:24:05 pm
Austin, so the 2-1 victory wasn't very surprising, but fun nonetheless.

I'm in east-central Dallas County, although since I just moved down here last Friday officially, I wasn't able to vote :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 10:24:44 pm
Chuck Todd = God


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:24:51 pm
Clinton closes the gap to one in TX on the back of a big chunk of Hidalgo County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:25:23 pm
Chuck Todd = God
Yes, Chuck Todd is a genius.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:25:35 pm
Does it feel like it's taking forever to count the votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:26:01 pm
Big fail by Obama in Ohio sadly.

Yeah, too bad, too.  I was really hoping this would put a huge dent in Clinton's hopes for the nomination and bring Obama in a safe position to focus more on John McCain.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:26:57 pm
Chuck Todd = God
Yes, Chuck Todd is a genius.

Yeah, especially when he chooses the LOSING candidate


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 10:27:27 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:28:02 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.
Almost assuredly no.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 10:28:33 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.

maybe three or four.  but probably not even that.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:28:50 pm
Obama's lead is about 12,000 in Texas. No Obama strongholds in though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018 on March 04, 2008, 10:29:24 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.
Almost assuredly no.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:29:39 pm
8,000 now


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 10:30:57 pm
*Claws ground while being pulled back to 50-50*


Nooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:31:22 pm
On the brightside, Obama is dominating in Toledo unexpectedly.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:31:42 pm
Well, I think it's going to be a long night. Both races will be close.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:32:48 pm
Anecdotal report:  My parents, both Obama supporters for now (my father switches back and forth) report from a 70-75% Hispanic precinct in the middle of Houston's East End (a little bit more upperclass than most).  150-25 Clinton.  Obama barely reaches viability.  Maybe through their showing up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 10:33:40 pm
Cuyahoga County wont even been fully counted till 430am they said on MSNBC. And southern Texas always seems to trickle in slow and kinda late....*sigh*


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 10:35:29 pm
Unless the precincts coming in from urban areas are unusually Clintonian areas, I think Clinton is going to win this one by a couple of three points.  I may be wrong, though.

Now focusing on anecdotal caucus reports (Sam's inspired me)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 10:35:58 pm
Ohio has failed.

It's come down to Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:36:23 pm
Um... shouldn't Clinton be doing much better in Bexar?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: King Jellybean on March 04, 2008, 10:36:58 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.
Almost assuredly no.

What happens now, then?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:37:15 pm
Clinton is slowly but surely gaining from the Limbaugh effect in the ultra-GOP suburbs.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:38:13 pm
Unless the precincts coming in from urban areas are unusually Clintonian areas, I think Clinton is going to win this one by a couple of three points.  I may be wrong, though.

Now focusing on anecdotal caucus reports (Sam's inspired me)

Expect most of the East End to look like that.  From what I was told, there were no problems there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Storebought on March 04, 2008, 10:38:34 pm
Ohio has failed.

No, you mean Obama has failed: for the third time this campaign, couldn't seal the deal.

To Spade: Limbaugh effect?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: elcorazon on March 04, 2008, 10:39:18 pm
Clinton is looking at a 3-5% win in Ohio and a 1-2% win in Texas, I suspect.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:39:42 pm
Ohio has failed.

No, you mean Obama has failed: for the third time this campaign, couldn't seal the deal.

To Spade: Limbaugh effect?

Limbaugh told Republicans to vote for Clinton to keep the race going.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 04, 2008, 10:39:50 pm
We have to come here? Here? Dude.........I dont wanna come here. Better clear the schedule!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 10:40:46 pm
Wish I had a better source than DailyKos anecdotal reports...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:40:58 pm
Ohio has failed.

No, you mean Obama has failed: for the third time this campaign, couldn't seal the deal.

To Spade: Limbaugh effect?

Limbaugh told his listeners to vote for Hillary.  The effect should show up in the same day numbers, and it is.  Compare Collin, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Williamson and Montgomery, for example.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:42:01 pm
Reminder to self - never trust RI polling.  At least I didn't this time, should have made the margin higher though...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:43:02 pm
Texas is scary!!! Come on Obama enlarge the gap!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:43:37 pm
Texas is scary!!! Come on Obama enlarge the gap!!

Wait till Dallas, Austin, and Houston come in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:43:56 pm
His lead is down to 1,700 votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:44:54 pm
down to 600 votes


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 10:45:13 pm
The question is, does Hillary get a net gain of delegates.
Almost assuredly no.

What happens now, then?

So far, I'm not seeing that.  A heavy Hispanic turnout in TX was reported; higher numbers than in 2004.  This was Obama's chance to end it (and it still might be).

It looks like Obama is abandoning the "elected delegate" argument.  We might see a brokered convention.

Republican unity and no frontrunner for the Democrats, with the potential of the DNC floor fight.  I'll bring the popcorn (if one side or another doesn't hire me).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 04, 2008, 10:45:25 pm
Jesus Christ Texas...close as hell. Epic.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:45:39 pm
She's winning now. :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:45:43 pm
Did anyone see Donna Brazile just respond to the closeness of Florida in 2000?  I thought it was pretty funny.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 10:46:33 pm
Ohio has failed.

No, you mean Obama has failed: for the third time this campaign, couldn't seal the deal.

To Spade: Limbaugh effect?

Hey man, he's not running against a pushover here. He'll get it in the end so don't wory about it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 04, 2008, 10:47:57 pm
Guys, the Clinton stories of bad caucus results are REAL, I was precinct chair for the Republicans here, they had no clue what to do, I helped them set up and they still did it all wrong, an Obama organizer ended up running it. It was so bad.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 10:48:14 pm
They are talking about a 15-16 delegate gain for Hillary on MSNBC.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 04, 2008, 10:48:36 pm
What is really, really sad is that I am sitting here screaming "Hillary!  Hillary!" at my TV :)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Thomas Jackson on March 04, 2008, 10:48:57 pm
Quote
They are talking about a 15-16 delegate gain for Hillary on MSNBC.

Which is generous, and which is not nearly enough.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 10:49:02 pm
"Hi, I'm Texas. I take FOREVER to count results"


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 10:49:08 pm
Screw it, im tired and going to sleep. I'll look at the results and be disappointed later when im not dying of exhaustion.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:49:20 pm
Hm... I wonder when caucus results come in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:49:35 pm
Guys, the Clinton stories of bad caucus results are REAL, I was precinct chair for the Republicans here, they had no clue what to do, I helped them set up and they still did it all wrong, an Obama organizer ended up running it. It was so bad.

lol - FLORIDA AGAIN!!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: John Dibble on March 04, 2008, 10:49:54 pm
What is really, really sad is that I am sitting here screaming "Hillary!  Hillary!" at my TV :)

In my experience that's usually a sign of demonic possession. ;)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 10:50:21 pm
Texas is looking grim for Obama.

They are talking about a 15-16 delegate gain for Hillary on MSNBC.

That's generous.  How do they figure that?  We'll see how the caucus goes, I suppose.

Anecdotal reports say that Obama will probably win, although not at his usual clip.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 04, 2008, 10:50:35 pm
OMG HILLARY AHEAD IN TEXAS


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 10:51:08 pm
"Hi, I'm Texas. I take FOREVER to count results"

Your state took 4 days for a caucus.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 10:51:15 pm
Look, folks.  This is the primary to end all primaries.  We've just begun.  Much like in Florida 2000, it's great to watch political history happen.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 10:51:43 pm
South Texas is actually doing an unusually good job of counting quickly.

El Paso...not so much.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:52:06 pm
"Hi, I'm Texas. I take FOREVER to count results"

Texas, meet New Mexico.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 10:52:14 pm
"Hi, I'm Texas. I take FOREVER to count results"

Your state took 4 days for a caucus.

No no - my state Republican party took 4 days. My Secretary of State was very prompt


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 10:52:23 pm
MSNBC has projected Clinton for Ohio.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: tweed on March 04, 2008, 10:52:30 pm
MSNBC OH Clinton


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 10:54:10 pm
Oh well...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 10:54:28 pm
I'm still not seeing why Texas looks bad. Clinton's areas are coming in, Obama's aren't, and it's tied.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:55:00 pm
Obama better get the margins closer in Ohio, if he wants to keep her delegate lead down.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:55:07 pm
Texas is looking grim for Obama.

They are talking about a 15-16 delegate gain for Hillary on MSNBC.

That's generous.  How do they figure that?  We'll see how the caucus goes, I suppose.

Anecdotal reports say that Obama will probably win, although not at his usual clip.


Nearly nothing in from Houstin, Dallas, or austin


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home. on March 04, 2008, 10:55:21 pm
clinton +11k in Texas, 29% reporting


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 10:55:39 pm
That was 40% of Cameron County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on March 04, 2008, 10:56:21 pm
Obama better get the margins closer in Ohio, if he wants to keep her delegate lead down.

she'll win but I don't think she'll get a huge delegate haul from it


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 10:56:37 pm
I still think Obama will win Texas by a decent margin, because of Austin, Houston and Dallas not reporting much yet.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 04, 2008, 10:56:58 pm
Ohio to Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 10:57:04 pm
I've been watching CNN all day.  And Wolf Blitzer keeps saying that no one has won the White House without Ohio "in over 100 years."  I want to show him a map of the 1960 election and then hit him in the head.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 10:57:22 pm
CNN calls Ohio for Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 10:58:03 pm
Obama better get the margins closer in Ohio, if he wants to keep her delegate lead down.

she'll win but I don't think she'll get a huge delegate haul from it

It'll be net positive for her I think which is all that really matters as she gets to live another 5 weeks.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: John Dibble on March 04, 2008, 10:58:19 pm
Well, time for bed. Too bad about Ohio, but I figured Clinton had a good chance there, though she's doing better than I thought she would at the moment. Rhode Island and Vermont basically cancel one another out. Hopefully Obama will win the Texas primary and caucus.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Eraserhead on March 04, 2008, 10:58:32 pm
I still think Obama will win Texas by a decent margin, because of Austin, Houston and Dallas not reporting much yet.

Hold your horses friend.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 10:58:54 pm
Austin, Dallas, Houston need to count their votes!!!!!Now


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 10:59:37 pm
There seem to be a lot of Clinton precincts left too.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:00:20 pm
I'm not sure where the new votes are coming from, maybe Nueces, or maybe just more obscure counties fully reporting. Obama does have a big fall-back in the cities, and the Limbaugh effect does not appear to have materialized in Collin County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:01:56 pm
Nueces, Hidalgo, Bexar, and Cameron are all coming in for Clinton.  Obama's votes are trickling in in Tarrant, Dallas, and Travis.  El Paso and Houston are both basically out still.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 11:02:17 pm
TX counted the early votes first.   African American turnout was lower than 2004; Hispanic turnout is higher.  This could end up being bad news for Obama. 

RI is almost a mirror of VT.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:03:12 pm
McMullen county is interesting...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:03:25 pm
TX counted the early votes first.   African American turnout was lower than 2004; Hispanic turnout is higher.  This could end up being bad news for Obama. 

I think we knew a couple of hours ago that this was bad news for Obama.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:03:46 pm
Dallas and Travis are pretty far behind the Hispanic counties right now. Harris will go more for Obama than El Paso will for Clinton, in raw numbers. The rural areas are basically all in. I think Obama has a slight edge, but perhaps not. There's also Jefferson to consider.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:03:58 pm
Clinton's margins are actually improving in Ohio. . . (Yes, I know Cuyahoga hasn't come in yet)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: auburntiger on March 04, 2008, 11:04:43 pm
50-48 Clinton in Texas. McCain clinches the nomination!!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 04, 2008, 11:04:50 pm
"Hi, I'm Texas. I take FOREVER to count results"

Your state took 4 days for a caucus.

No no - my state Republican party took 4 days. My Secretary of State was very prompt
That's because he is a Republican.  Last I checked, King County was still county votes











.









From 2000.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 11:05:01 pm
Folks, it is way too early to start predicting Texas, yet.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:05:24 pm
I hate you Harris County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:06:19 pm
Harris County:

62% Obama

38% Clinton

A whopping 1% of the precints in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:06:25 pm
From the Buckeye State Blog:

Quote
blah blah blah...Clinton's up 140k in Ohio. Yea. I get it.

    But we've got 0% in Hamilton County, 0% in Montgomery County, next to nothing in Toledo, and - of course - o% in Cuyahoga County. So hold your horses before you start calling this either way.

    And looks like Cuyahoga County won't be reporting till about 4:30am. I know - great news.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 04, 2008, 11:06:34 pm
McMullen county is interesting...
You've never been to Tilden.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:07:15 pm
McMullen county is interesting...
You've never been to Tilden.

I'm curious about that too - mind expanding?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:07:54 pm
Austin is pouring in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:08:04 pm
I still think Clinton is screwed. If she does win the nomination somehow, I will be pleased to watch her burn.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:08:28 pm
I'm very proud of Austin. ;D

Obama's closing the gap in Texas again.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 11:09:08 pm
The margin increase for Clinton right now in Ohio is the industrial NE coming in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:09:47 pm
In Ohio Obama is closing the gap as well with 56-42, with Montgomery County pulling for him.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:10:26 pm
The margin increase for Clinton right now in Ohio is the industrial NE coming in.

That's a nice margin for Clinton in Youngstown (Am I right that it's Mahoning County?)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:12:04 pm
Dallas coming in now too.  Obama narrowing, and I would expect him to take the lead eventually again (I'm not saying he's going to win it though).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:12:54 pm
Hansford County can't be right. Over 1000 GOP primary votes and no Dem votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:13:32 pm
Lots of Obamaland coming in now.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:13:51 pm
Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:14:46 pm
Lots of Obamaland coming in now.

Where?  Latest update had Bexar and Travis, not much for either.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:15:20 pm
Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.

As is El Paso and much of Hidalgo (though they can't nearly match the numbers in Harris).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:15:39 pm
Hansford County can't be right. Over 1000 GOP primary votes and no Dem votes.

Someone posted earlier that a party can't have a primary without a county chairman.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:15:52 pm
I gotta do homework sometime tonight.*groans*
Bad night for me, stupid Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:16:05 pm
Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.

As is El Paso and much of Hidalgo (though they can't nearly match the numbers in Harris).

I wouldn't expect many more votes from Hidalgo. For some reason, they early vote like mad there (30,000 of 40,000 total in the primaries in 2004).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:16:15 pm
Jefferson is still all out in addition to most of Harris.

As is El Paso and much of Hidalgo (though they can't nearly match the numbers in Harris).

Remember that the Hispanics overwhelmingly vote early.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:16:28 pm
I'm going to miss clap-clap-point-point, but clap-clap-wave-jig is an acceptable substitute.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 11:17:37 pm
Hillary - Democratic winner of the night.


Not...dead...yet...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:17:51 pm
I'm going to miss clap-clap-point-point, but clap-clap-wave-jig is an acceptable substitute.
Hahaha.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:17:58 pm
Lots of Obamaland coming in now.

Where?  Latest update had Bexar and Travis, not much for either.

I was looking at the counties where Obama does well incraesing their number of precincts. And possibly lagging too. And I'm tired and know little about Texas counties. Given all that I think I was correct... :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 04, 2008, 11:18:06 pm
McMullen county is interesting...
You've never been to Tilden.
I'm curious about that too - mind expanding?
Nothing there.

BTW, McMullen is the only county in South Texas without a Hispanic super-majority.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:18:09 pm
I'm going to miss clap-clap-point-point, but clap-clap-wave-jig is an acceptable substitute.

She claps and Obama points, it seems to me, at least before the Texas debate.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:18:16 pm
Hahahahahahahaahahah!!!!
I take solice in the fact that Columbus voted for Obama, even though Clinton is speaking there.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:18:47 pm
Well, she's going to keep going apparently. Gonna destroy the party and hand McCain a victory on a silver platter, but that's the Clintons for you.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:19:15 pm
Hahahahahahahaahahah!!!!
I take solice in the fact that Columbus voted for Obama, even though Clinton is speaking there.

You do know that Obama is staying in San Antonio. . .


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:19:37 pm
Well, she's going to keep going apparently. Gonna destroy the party and hand McCain a victory on a silver platter, but that's the Clintons for you.
Yeah. I hate saying this but I am going for Nader if she wins.*barfs*


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:19:41 pm
Dodd leads Brooks County!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sensei on March 04, 2008, 11:20:04 pm
I think I'm going to be sick every time Clinton speaks. HOW THE HELL DO PEOPLE VOTE FOR HER?!?!?!?!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:20:13 pm
Denton looks promising for Obama.
Dallas is still 2/3 out.
As is Austin
Fort Bend also is going strong for Obama
Houston will be the one to kill Clinton though.

Clinton is doing well in Hildago, Cameron, and Webb which hasn't reported at all.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:20:20 pm
Yes We Will!!!!!
LOL WTF.
LOLOLOLOLOOLOLOOLOL


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:20:38 pm
Obviously an error in Brooks, by the way.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:21:14 pm
El Paso coming in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:21:32 pm
El Paso starting.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:21:38 pm
Obviously an error in Brooks, by the way.

The same exact thing happened in Okanogan County, WA, during the primary.  I think it was alphabetizing error.

Or Doddmentum.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:21:48 pm
Clinton: I won Michigan. :D


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:22:06 pm
Crap. It looks like it is over in Texas. Obama is not closing the gap even though Houston, Dallas and Austin are all reporting.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:22:20 pm
Harris, too, and much more of Travis.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Volrath50 on March 04, 2008, 11:23:15 pm
Clinton: I won Michigan. :D

Lol, as if that were particularily difficult for her.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:23:37 pm
Obviously an error in Brooks, by the way.

The same exact thing happened in Okanogan County, WA, during the primary.  I think it was alphabetizing error.

Or Doddmentum.

My guess is that someone alphabetized Clinton as "Hillary", throwing everything off one.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:24:57 pm
Clinton annoys the sh**t out of me. Hello Hillary, welcome to the Mute Button. It is a hell of a lot better of a speaker than you.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:25:07 pm
What's with the caucus results?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:25:33 pm
Sam, in your opinion, what does Texas look like at this point?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 04, 2008, 11:26:13 pm
YES WE WILL!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 11:26:29 pm
Crap. It looks like it is over in Texas. Obama is not closing the gap even though Houston, Dallas and Austin are all reporting.

It's still too early to tel, but a net gain for Clinton, in terms of delegates.  The race will continue with both candidates viable. 

Bill Clinton is to campaign in WY.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:26:33 pm
What's with the caucus results?
I think the caucauses are super overcrowded and super messed up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:27:06 pm
What's with the caucus results?
I think the caucauses are super overcrowded and super messed up.
and super stupid.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:27:11 pm
Haha, Hillary supporters chanting "Yes she can"


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:27:16 pm
What's with the caucus results?
I think the caucauses are super overcrowded and super messed up.

So when are they coming in?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:27:54 pm
Haha, Hillary supporters chanting "Yes she can"

Cult of personality :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Volrath50 on March 04, 2008, 11:28:01 pm
It's pretty disgusting that she's attacking Obama the way she is, basically saying that he's "not up for the job". Does she care at all about the future of her part in the (very likely) event Obama wins? It just seems stupid that she'd give McCain so much ammuntion to use in the General Election.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 04, 2008, 11:29:19 pm
These caucus results are going to be big, and a total ing sham.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2008, 11:29:59 pm
YES SHE CAN!

The corination of Obama has failed.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 04, 2008, 11:30:35 pm
YES SHE WILL!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Storebought on March 04, 2008, 11:31:01 pm
These caucus results are going to be big, and a total ing sham.

Just like it was engineered to be in TX.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 11:31:20 pm
Look, with all these huge counties in Texas, you can't make predictions from them b/c you don't know where the precincts are coming from.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 11:31:34 pm
Haha, no Bill at the event!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:32:05 pm
Bexar has given hillary a 28,000 vote lead.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:32:42 pm
Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:33:08 pm
Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

San Antonio


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 11:33:38 pm
Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

Shes winning Galveston last time I checked.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 04, 2008, 11:34:08 pm
WOO HOO!!

She's still clear by 14% in Ohio with 70% in. Her lead in Texas is growing despite the supposedly Obama heavy counties coming in.


YES SHE WILL!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 04, 2008, 11:34:36 pm
Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

Shes winning Galveston last time I checked.

By 250 votes. That's really a tie.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:35:06 pm
WOO HOO!!

She's still clear by 14% in Ohio with 70% in. Her lead in Texas is growing despite the supposedly Obama heavy counties coming in.


YES SHE WILL!

Can you not be BRTD for the evening. Thanks.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 04, 2008, 11:35:18 pm
Clinton's lead is expanding in Texas, but I can't figure out what's coming in, besides Corpus Christi.

Shes winning Galveston last time I checked.

It's all a question of whether racist whitey will outvote blackey.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 11:35:24 pm
I've been out since Page 26. Can somebody tell me what's going on?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: villainsaff on March 04, 2008, 11:36:39 pm
I've been out since Page 26. Can somebody tell me what's going on?

Obama is losing....thats all you need to know.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:36:48 pm
WOO HOO!!

She's still clear by 14% in Ohio with 70% in. Her lead in Texas is growing despite the supposedly Obama heavy counties coming in.


YES SHE WILL!
Pretty disgusting considering you are rooting somebody you dispise so that McCain will win. I actually supported Huckabee with the GOP because I liked him more than the rest.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 11:38:01 pm
I've been out since Page 26. Can somebody tell me what's going on?

Hillary won OH, RI, and is leading in TX; Obama won VT.  Probable net delegate gain for Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 11:39:16 pm
Obama has been speaking for about a minute. How many people have fainted so far?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:40:03 pm
One thing I like about Obama is that he can actually admit defeat.  Every time Clinton loses, it's the seem as the victory speech, which is a bit ridiculous.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 04, 2008, 11:40:35 pm
lol @ Clinton for getting like 5 hands of appluase of congratulation.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:40:58 pm
Clinton's lead is still growing in Texas.  Why?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:41:02 pm
I've been out since Page 26. Can somebody tell me what's going on?

Hillary won OH, RI, and is leading in TX; Obama won VT.  Probable net delegate gain for Clinton.

Not with the caucus out and the disappropiation in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Reaganfan on March 04, 2008, 11:41:24 pm
Clinton's lead is still growing in Texas.  Why?

Because America wants a McCain vs. Hillary election.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MarkWarner08 on March 04, 2008, 11:42:03 pm
Clinton's lead is still growing in Texas.  Why?

Because Americans Republicans like Naso wants a McCain vs. Hillary election.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 04, 2008, 11:42:07 pm
Obama is giving a really poor speech... he must be wondering when this all will end.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:42:42 pm
Clinton's lead is still growing in Texas.  Why?

Hidalgo this time.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:42:49 pm
Obama is giving a really poor speech... he must be wondering when this all will end.

He looks really pissed.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 11:42:52 pm
Damn. Come on, Texas. Pull a Missouri.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:43:37 pm
Clinton's lead is still growing in Texas.  Why?

Hidalgo this time.

Ah.  That's an incredible margin for Clinton in Hidalgo.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Reaganfan on March 04, 2008, 11:43:58 pm
GO HILLARY!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:44:05 pm
Harris County needs to get in. Maybe they had lots of votes to count.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 04, 2008, 11:44:13 pm
Obama's speech is HORRIBLE the man obviously didn't know how the Clintons are immune to reality.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 04, 2008, 11:44:20 pm
I almost always admire Obama's delivery but he does seem very nasty in his tone tonight.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:44:34 pm
How big will Webb be when it comes in?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 04, 2008, 11:45:00 pm
GO HILLARY!!

Come on, Shrillary, you can do it. You are right for America. Obama is not.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:46:19 pm
Hillary about to break a million in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2008, 11:46:33 pm
The lead just keeps getting bigger! Hillary breaks a million votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:47:17 pm
How big will Webb be when it comes in?

Smaller than the other big counties; it only has a bit over 200,000 residents, much smaller than most of the others we're talking about. About three-quarters of Nueces.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:47:50 pm
Obama should net 200,000 votes in Harris if the current margin holds.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 12th Doctor on March 04, 2008, 11:47:57 pm
Two things... first off, I think even most Democrats would admit that saying McCain wants to follow the same exact course as Bush is a blatant straw man... secondly, I am starting to realize that Obama always gives the same speech.


Blah Blah Blah hope.  Blah, Blah, Blah Change.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:48:32 pm
How big will Webb be when it comes in?

Smaller than the other big counties; it only has a bit over 200,000 residents, much smaller than most of the others we're talking about. About three-quarters of Nueces.

Still should had a few thousand votes for Clinton's lead.

We really can't judge the race until the rest of Harris comes in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 04, 2008, 11:48:47 pm
Some of the same from Obama. Change, change, hope hope unity unity. I think that is making people tired. He didn't do himself any favors tonight.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:49:36 pm
Two things... first off, I think even most Democrats would admit that saying McCain wants to follow the same exact course as Bush is a blatant straw man... secondly, I am starting to realize that Obama always gives the same speech.


Blah Blah Blah hope.  Blah, Blah, Blah Change.

Yeah.  It includes a couple of parts where he goes "from _______ to _________" (citing two places or states).  Then he cites a few stories.  I mean, it's a good speech, but kind of empty.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 04, 2008, 11:49:46 pm
I almost always admire Obama's delivery but he does seem very nasty in his tone tonight.

He looks like a guy who got a 3:00 AM Phone Call.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 04, 2008, 11:50:23 pm
Two things... first off, I think even most Democrats would admit that saying McCain wants to follow the same exact course as Bush is a blatant straw man... secondly, I am starting to realize that Obama always gives the same speech.


Blah Blah Blah hope.  Blah, Blah, Blah Change.

You just realized? I did when I saw that his great Iowa victory speech was the same thing as his 2004 DNC speech.

Note that I do support Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:50:41 pm
Mediocre speech, but really horrible crowd reactions. What happened to the enthusiasm?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 11:50:57 pm
If you listen, this sounds more like a general election speech.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:51:12 pm
How big will Webb be when it comes in?

Smaller than the other big counties; it only has a bit over 200,000 residents, much smaller than most of the others we're talking about. About three-quarters of Nueces.

Still should had a few thousand votes for Clinton's lead.

We really can't judge the race until the rest of Harris comes in.

Oh, yes, it definitely will. But not a large amount, maybe five thousand net at most, probably a bit less.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on March 04, 2008, 11:51:18 pm
We hear this speech every time. Ideals, change, change, hope, hope, I had nothing as a child blah blah hope change and transcend politics.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:52:29 pm
I fukcing hate Harris County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 04, 2008, 11:52:53 pm
We hear this speech every time. Ideals, change, change, hope, hope, I had nothing as a child blah blah hope change and transcend politics.

Coming from a John McCain supporter.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Hammy on March 04, 2008, 11:53:48 pm
it sickens me in ways that cant even be described to see republicans on here cheering for hillary because they think that will mean a mccain victory

i am seriously considering voting for hillary (and campaigning online and around where i live to my best ability) to spite all these ultraconservative fascists and hoping that mccain loses anyway so that they cant have their bush third term puppet



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 11:54:02 pm
So how 'bout that caucus?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:54:12 pm
What the hell was the end of Obama's speech?  I have no idea what he said at the end until he shouted "Yes We Can"


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:54:44 pm
Tarrant County just dropped from 55% to 36% reporting...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:55:09 pm
It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: StateBoiler on March 04, 2008, 11:55:19 pm
it sickens me in ways that cant even be described to see republicans on here cheering for hillary because they think that will mean a mccain victory

i am seriously considering voting for hillary (and campaigning online and around where i live to my best ability) to spite all these ultraconservative fascists and hoping that mccain loses anyway so that they cant have their bush third term puppet

It is an odd election to say the least.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Reaganfan on March 04, 2008, 11:55:46 pm
What the hell was the end of Obama's speech?  I have no idea what he said at the end until he shouted "Yes We Can"

I have to admit...the speech was a little Obama-lite. GO HILL GO BABY!!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MasterJedi on March 04, 2008, 11:56:03 pm
it sickens me in ways that cant even be described to see republicans on here cheering for hillary because they think that will mean a mccain victory

i am seriously considering voting for hillary (and campaigning online and around where i live to my best ability) to spite all these ultraconservative fascists and hoping that mccain loses anyway so that they cant have their bush third term puppet

What's worse, wanting Hillary to win because she can be defeated or not voting for someone who shares their ideals? That's what it seems you will be doing if you do that.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 04, 2008, 11:56:10 pm
People are underestimating the power of Harris County. Obama has a 46,000 lead with 14% in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 04, 2008, 11:56:26 pm
It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MarkWarner08 on March 04, 2008, 11:56:58 pm
We hear this speech every time. Ideals, change, change, hope, hope, I had nothing as a child blah blah hope change and transcend politics.
Meanwhile, McCain is somewhere in America, cursing at yet another Republican Senator who challenges the Great One.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 04, 2008, 11:57:28 pm
It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

Ding.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 04, 2008, 11:57:55 pm
Obama finally takes the lead in Cuyahoga County.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 04, 2008, 11:58:02 pm
I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 12th Doctor on March 04, 2008, 11:58:10 pm
Two things... first off, I think even most Democrats would admit that saying McCain wants to follow the same exact course as Bush is a blatant straw man... secondly, I am starting to realize that Obama always gives the same speech.


Blah Blah Blah hope.  Blah, Blah, Blah Change.

Yeah.  It includes a couple of parts where he goes "from _______ to _________" (citing two places or states).  Then he cites a few stories.  I mean, it's a good speech, but kind of empty.

You forgot the part where he blurts out a few random statements followed by "Yes we can."


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: elcorazon on March 04, 2008, 11:58:53 pm
while I agree obama's speeches are mostly the same.  I'd argue that the same is true of most politicians, particularly during a campaign where the facts on the ground don't change regularly.  Most people don't hear speech after speech anyway, so it's no surprise they'd keep using the parts that seem to be working.  You usually change your speech when the results are bad.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 04, 2008, 11:59:09 pm
McCain supporters making fun of Obama's speeches? Hahahaha.

Prelim TX delegate estimate from The Field: Obama +6


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 04, 2008, 11:59:53 pm
Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:00:31 am
I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

I'll take that fight any day


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: War on Want on March 05, 2008, 12:01:33 am
Clinton will have no momentum. I do not see any Obama supporters or even undecided voters ever going for her.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:01:45 am
Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

The media can't affect delegates already won.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 12:01:54 am
Also Dallas. And Tarrant. And Jefferson.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 05, 2008, 12:02:14 am
Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

El Paso has been 28% for a while.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:02:26 am
More El Paso.

If it came down to Harris v El Paso, Harris wins huge. But there are plenty of other large counties with lots left to report.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 05, 2008, 12:02:30 am
Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

Travis is up to 78%. I guess this will largely be Harris (14%) v El Paso (12%)?

El Paso is now at 28%  However, Hidalgo and Cameron are still under 50%, so Clinton get add a few thousand votes to her lead from those two, along with San Antonio which is still only 55% in.  However, Obama will get big numbers from Harris (14% in), Dallas (54%), and Tarrant (36%).  It's going to be close, and at this point it's hard to predict.

There's also a bunch of random smaller counties that haven't reported that could affect the results.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:03:13 am
Folks, in these big counties, we have no idea where the votes are left to be counted.  Harris County, for example, is so diverse, that future results could, quite frankly, be anything.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:04:09 am
Obama will not have such a lead if Clinton is crowned by the media.

How will they give her delegates? She won't be within a hundred after today, and the two between now and PA are some of Obama's strongest: the blackest state and the least densely populated western state (a caucus).

She can make up ground in PA. But twenty net delegates there is pretty generous, and Obama should manage that in just MS and WY.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:04:41 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:05:29 am
The white areas of Lucas County have finally reported to put Hillary back in front.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:06:02 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 12:07:42 am
It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

No candidate can win without the Super Delegates.  Obama's argument that he has the majority of the elected delegates is weak, because he's not counting those from FL/MI, that are elected (if too early, according to the rules). 

Now, he has one argument to convince the super delegates:

He's more electable.

The results of Hillary's McCain-like (and McCain-lite) campaign today cast a shadow over that.  The fact that he close the deal, even though he outspent Hillary 3 to 1 casts a shadow over that.  The reported, on MSNBC, that 25% of Hillary's supporters say that they will support McCain over Obama casts a cloud over that.

This may come down to bare knuckle brawl in Denver.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 12:07:57 am
West Virginia and Pennslyvania are Hillary's ultimate firewalls.

Hopefully after those two, Obama can stay in Chicago forever.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:08:10 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:09:18 am
The same numbers say that Obama supporters will back McCain, so I'm not sure how that argument works. Anyway, we'll see if the 50 extra supers Obama is rumored to have are true tomorrow.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:10:05 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

100 superdelegates will flock to Hillary between now and Pennsylvania?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:10:33 am
It seems to me that Clinton managed to get a LOT out of this night. She's pulled Obama into exactly the kind of dirty, negative politics where she can probably beat him. He's beginning to sound defensive. Also, the news spin for her right now sounds incredible. There was an analyst on CNN just saying that the winner of PA will be the nominee! If he cannot pull out Texas Clinton may have a better chance than we thought.

They can say it on the media, but the delegate numbers will not bear it out. They can't crown Clinton after winning PA if Obama leads by 100 delegates on April 23.

No candidate can win without the Super Delegates.  Obama's argument that he has the majority of the elected delegates is weak, because he's not counting those from FL/MI, that are elected (if too early, according to the rules). 

Now, he has one argument to convince the super delegates:

He's more electable.

The results of Hillary's McCain-like (and McCain-lite) campaign today cast a shadow over that.  The fact that he close the deal, even though he outspent Hillary 3 to 1 casts a shadow over that.  The reported, on MSNBC, that 25% of Hillary's supporters say that they will support McCain over Obama casts a cloud over that.

This may come down to bare knuckle brawl in Denver.

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

And it's pretty obvious why MI's delegates shouldn't count, even if you can make a case for FL.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:10:44 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:11:35 am
Folks, this race is far from over.  Obama fumbled at the goal line yet again. 

Let's face facts, this is the greatest primary ever.  We're watching political history, just like we were at 2:00 AM Election night 2000.  Enjoy it.

I know this will be hard, but I am certainly do so.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:11:49 am
Hmm, some more Harris


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 05, 2008, 12:11:59 am
Houston and Dallas starting to really come in, and Hillary's lead is shrinking, though not too quickly.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Hammy on March 05, 2008, 12:12:08 am
it sickens me in ways that cant even be described to see republicans on here cheering for hillary because they think that will mean a mccain victory

i am seriously considering voting for hillary (and campaigning online and around where i live to my best ability) to spite all these ultraconservative fascists and hoping that mccain loses anyway so that they cant have their bush third term puppet

What's worse, wanting Hillary to win because she can be defeated or not voting for someone who shares their ideals? That's what it seems you will be doing if you do that.

i honestly have yet to find one single thing that i can agree with McCain on


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:12:48 am
Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 05, 2008, 12:13:05 am
The media can do anythig it wants.

If they say Clinton is the new front-runner, then *poof*, she is.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:14:45 am
Major error in the Upshur County results.  Not that it matters much...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:15:01 am
Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:15:29 am
Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

Not necessarily in delegates...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:16:00 am
The media can do anythig it wants.

If they say Clinton is the new front-runner, then *poof*, she is.

Yeah well they said Giuliani was the frontrunner forever, up until Iowa basically.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 12:16:16 am

You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones).  :)

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:16:36 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:16:49 am
Also the good streak for Hillary in the media likely ends tomorrow morning when the caucus comes in (then there's the rumor of Obama's fundraising + superdelegate bloc.)

Yeah ok.

Hillary's three state comeback > Texas caucus results

Not necessarily in delegates...

I still think the major story/headlines will be "Clinton Comeback."


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 12:18:08 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:18:28 am
You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones).  :)

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:19:50 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:20:43 am
I don't want this to appear like I'm showing an anti-Obama bias. I predicted things were over for Clinton. Hell, I predicted Obama would win Texas tonight. Just like I thought he was gonna win New Hampshire and California and Massachusetts. But I'm genuinely surprised by the media handling. It seems like Clinton is getting the opening she needed. Whether it's enough is another matter.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:21:21 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

Well, sort of. Yes, the media can affect the remaining races. But they won't crown a winner who trails in delegates, though they might say it now without thinking about it. And there are two other races between now and PA which will change the media narrative (Clinton Bump Elusive?).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:21:37 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

She's going to get a comfortable victory here. It will be just like Ohio. She's going to have that momentum for awhile.

Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:22:31 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?

Big in terms of the margin. Wyoming's not a big state but neither is Iowa or New Hampshire.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:23:26 am
Chuck Todd says that we may not have Texas caucus results until this weekend or next week, he may have been joking however, I couldn't tell


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:23:31 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

Well, sort of. Yes, the media can affect the remaining races. But they won't crown a winner who trails in delegates, though they might say it now without thinking about it. And there are two other races between now and PA which will change the media narrative (Clinton Bump Elusive?).

I agree it sounds crazy, but I've learnt never to underestimate the stupidity that can come on public display in these amtters.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Boris on March 05, 2008, 12:24:50 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

I don't think Wyoming and Mississippi will make much of an impact on Pennsylvania. Clinton suffered through eleven straight losses and still managed to pull out what looks like a double-digit victory in Ohio and tie Obama in Texas. Apparently, she has some skills that Giuliani lacks. Ultimately, the demographics of Pennsylvania will decide the winner, although, realistically, I think the result there will be close, probably within five percentage points.

If Obama can eek out a win in the Texas Primary, I think it'd be a huge boost. That way he can essentially claim a 50-50 split on March 4th.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 12:25:02 am
You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones).  :)

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.

I didn't say there was a valid argument, though there might be (I'm not sure the DNC has the authority to adopt such a rule in the first place, but I have not checked).  Neither candidate will have a valid argument, at least completely so.  The hypocrisy swells no matter what happens, without a clean win.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:25:27 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

Big losses? Wow. I've never heard Wyoming described as "big" in any sense. Whose spinning now?

Big in terms of the margin. Wyoming's not a big state but neither is Iowa or New Hampshire.

....

Iowa and New Hampshire are well known "first in the nation" contest. Wyoming is...uh...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2008, 12:25:36 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Trilobyte on March 05, 2008, 12:25:57 am
Momentum would be important if Pennsylvania was next week. It's not; it's in April. By the time Pennsylvania votes, any momentum from today will have been completely forgotten, and Obama will still have a 150+ delegate lead.

And Hillary has to eat two big losses before it.

I don't think Wyoming and Mississippi will make much of an impact on Pennsylvania. Clinton suffered through eleven straight losses and still managed to pull out what looks like a double-digit victory in Ohio and tie Obama in Texas. Apparently, she has some skills that Giuliani lacks. Ultimately, the demographics of Pennsylvania will decide the winner, although, realistically, I think the result there will be close, probably within five percentage points.

If Obama can eek out a win in the Texas Primary, I think it'd be a huge boost. That way he can essentially claim a 50-50 split on March 4th.

I agree, and if some new revelation surfaces from the Rezko trial, Obama could be in for weeks and weeks of unfavorable news, offsetting his momentum from wins in WY and MS.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:26:06 am
Caucus results!

5% in

Obama: 56%
Clinton: 44%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:26:33 am
You know you can keep copying and pasting the FL and MI crap all you like, it doesn't mean sh!t since the DNC doesn't agree with you.

Hate to tell you this BRTD, but the DNC can seat those delegates.  It really depends on who has a bare majority on both the credentials committee and/or if Hillary (this time) can muster a majority of all delegates on the floor (not just the elected ones).  :)

The Democratic National Committee can even reverse the initial ruling.

It becomes a matter or raw votes.

Sure they can but they don't want to. And the math for Hillary to catch up in delegates not counting FL and MI is still quite daunting.

And you'd have to be a complete braindead hack to say there is no valid argument why Michigan should not be counted in the elected delegate total.

I didn't say there was a valid argument, though there might be (I'm not sure the DNC has the authority to adopt such a rule in the first place, but I have not checked).  Neither candidate will have a valid argument, at least completely so.  The hypocrisy swells no matter what happens, without a clean win.

Then why do you keep saying Obama can't argue he leads in elected delegates excluding FL and MI?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:27:07 am
Yeah, I noted the El Paso bump just now.

While the media cannot alloted delegates they can affect the remaining races and superdelegates.

You said Obama won't have a lead after Pennsylvania if the media crowns Hillary. There's no way she can catch up between now and Pennsylvania.

That's because super delegates would under that scenario flock to her. If he's forced out his delegate count may even drop to 0 :P

But seriously politics has a lot to do with appearances, especially with all those super delegates holding the balance of power.

You're missing the point. They can't crown a winner who trails, badly, in the pledged delegate count. And the superdelegates are not going to switch on "appearances"; they know enough of politics to understand that a lot of this is smoke and mirrors.

That's a whole other argument. Should I interpret your changing the argument as you agreeing with me on what I said?

Well, sort of. Yes, the media can affect the remaining races. But they won't crown a winner who trails in delegates, though they might say it now without thinking about it. And there are two other races between now and PA which will change the media narrative (Clinton Bump Elusive?).

I agree it sounds crazy, but I've learnt never to underestimate the stupidity that can come on public display in these amtters.

I also take heart from the Nevada spin. For the first day or two it was all about the immense significance of the Clinton victory. Then it was revealed that Obama had won more delegates, and the narrative became that Nevada had been a tie, indecisive. I think that's exactly what's going to happen here; if Clinton gains net delegates at all, it will be five to ten at most, and I actually think Obama is more likely to win net delegates with these numbers (with the caucus caveat that we don't know anything yet).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:28:08 am
Ooh, caucus results. But no county breakdown :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:28:18 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 12:30:09 am
Despite currently losing the Texas primary, Obama is leading its delegates 64-62.

EDIT: Now it's a 63-63 tie.

With 5% in, he leads 56-44 in the caucus, which selects another 67 delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:30:13 am
There is something else that is rarely mentioned about superdelegates, some of them are elected (sort of). Every state has at least one "add-on" which is elected either by the state convention or leadership of the state party. Since Obama dominates all caucuses he'll dominate all conventions and thus own the superdelegates elected at conventions. The ones elected by the state committees are trickier, so far two have been elected, one from Oklahoma (a former Edwards supporter now uncommitted) and one from Alabama (an Obama supporter.) These are basically immune to media spin and Obama is guaranteed at least half.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:30:46 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:31:39 am
Wow, the Texas Democrats are paranoid.  Before even viewing the results, they force you to agree to two separate terms of use and provide your email, phone number, name and home address.  Wtf.

Anyway, by senate district:

TX-8 (: 62-37 Obama
TX-14: 66-33 Obama
TX-16: 60-39 Obama
TX-29: 75-24 Clinton
TX-30: 59-40 Clinton

All I know is that TX-29 is most of El Paso County, and TX-30 I think is Wichita Falls (?).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:32:14 am
The spin here is getting ridiculous - if it wasn't already.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:32:36 am
Anyone (Sam especially), have a link to a map/list/something to help me out?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:33:02 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2008, 12:33:29 am
Wow, the Texas Democrats are paranoid.  Before even viewing the results, they force you to agree to two separate terms of use and provide your email, phone number, name and home address.  Wtf.

Anyway, by senate district:

TX-8 (: 62-37 Obama
TX-14: 66-33 Obama
TX-16: 60-39 Obama
TX-29: 75-24 Clinton
TX-30: 59-40 Clinton

All I know is that TX-29 is most of El Paso County, and TX-30 I think is Wichita Falls (?).

Is this the primary or the caucus?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:33:38 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

But by any mathematical measure of proportionality the Democratic system wins out.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:33:52 am
Wow, the Texas Democrats are paranoid.  Before even viewing the results, they force you to agree to two separate terms of use and provide your email, phone number, name and home address.  Wtf.

Anyway, by senate district:

TX-8 (: 62-37 Obama
TX-14: 66-33 Obama
TX-16: 60-39 Obama
TX-29: 75-24 Clinton
TX-30: 59-40 Clinton

All I know is that TX-29 is most of El Paso County, and TX-30 I think is Wichita Falls (?).

Is this the primary or the caucus?


Caucus (hence why I have to go through the dumb party site)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 12:34:02 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.
The votes of a greater number of people matter under our system, whereas in your system, 68% of voters don't matter at all.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:34:25 am
Break out your Texas State Senate district maps, cause that's how we're going to be getting results:

District 8 42% in
Obama: 62%
Clinton: 37%

District 14 47% in
Obama: 66%
Clinton: 33%

District 16 42% in
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 39%

District 29 31% in
Clinton: 75%
Obama: 24%

District 30 32% in
Clinton: 59%
Obama: 40%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:34:48 am
Curse you Alcon :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:35:10 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

Do you really want to make this argument? We could talk about House malapportionment, Senate malapportionment, the 2000 EC results...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ottermax on March 05, 2008, 12:35:35 am
I'm disappointed by the results of tonight. I guess there was too much Obamania.... :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:36:50 am
Curse you Alcon :(

mwaha!

County results:

Collin: 63-36 Obama
Lubbock: 55-44 Clinton
Travis: 65-34 Obama

Looks a whole lot like the primary results, actually...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:37:17 am
Here's the Texas State Senate map: http://texaspolitics.laits.utexas.edu/html/leg/features/0400_04/plans01188.html


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:37:30 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

But by any mathematical measure of proportionality the Democratic system wins out.

Sorry but I "proportionality" shouldn't mean more. Someone getting less votes shouldn't get more delegates.

Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

Do you really want to make this argument? We could talk about House malapportionment, Senate malapportionment, the 2000 EC results...

The Electoral College is a different argument. Then again, I'm not the one running around saying how "democratic" either system is. You guys keep going on about how "democratic" the Democratic primaries are. It's ridiculous.


The votes of a greater number of people matter under our system, whereas in your system, 68% of voters don't matter at all.

At least the person who gets the most votes benefits in my system. Your system - Win more votes but lose where it matters! That's democracy!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:37:43 am
Harris jumps to 50% with no net gain for Obama out of it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:38:42 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX


Oh, yes. This is clearly the more democratic system.

Is giving 100% of delegates to someone who wins 32% more democratic and proportional?

Uh, at least the person who won more votes gets more delegates as opposed to someone losing in the vote count yet obtaining more delegates.

But by any mathematical measure of proportionality the Democratic system wins out.

Sorry but I "proportionality" shouldn't mean more. Someone getting less votes shouldn't get more delegates.

But that's more likely in your system looking at national delegates and votes cast.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 12:39:01 am
District 8: North Dallas
District 14: Looks like North Austin or Austin itself
District 16: Dallas
District 29: El Paso
District 30: Big swath Northwest of Dallas and Fort Worth out to the Panhandle


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:40:18 am
Travis goes up to 83%. Still no net gain for Obama (though there might have been within Travis)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: CultureKing on March 05, 2008, 12:41:32 am
Wow, am I the only one who thought that what has happened tonight was how things would turn out? Seriously none of this is that big of a suprise, and to tell the truth I think it basically leaves almost everything unchanged. Clinton will have stopped Obama's momentum but that is basically it, I dont think she can reverse it at this point.

So tonight:
Obama big win in Vermont and I am speculating but a 1-3% win in Texas after the counting in through (only in the primary of course)

Clinton big win in Rhode Island and I am once again speculating but a moderate victory in Ohio perhaps 5-8% win

In the end for the night maybe a small net gain for Obama and as such we go into the rest of March almost the same as we entered. Personally I dont see how Clinton can catch up.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:41:52 am
Harris is now down to 58-41.  Once again, who knows where the votes are coming from.

Looking over the results - rural SE Ohio and industrial NE Ohio don't like Obama (I didn't say blacks, you did)  But then again, that's not too big of a surprise.

The racial voting in East Texas is hilarious.  Al's going to have to get us a map.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Speed of Sound on March 05, 2008, 12:43:19 am
So tonight:
Obama big win in Vermont and I am speculating but a 1-3% win in Texas after the counting in through (only in the primary of course)
Where, uh......where ya been, chief? We're lookin' at a 2 point loss in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 12:43:38 am
i am unbelievably hyped up about loving county, texas

Here's who they're loving:

Obama 7
Clinton 5
Edwards 5
Richardson 4
Dodd1
Biden 0


And 0 loving votes for the Republicans.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:43:46 am
Tarrant jumped to 71% and Clinton increased her margin.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:44:10 am
Tarrant jumped to 71% and Clinton increased her margin.

Bexar also jumped to 75%.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 12:44:45 am
Edwards is doing ridiculously well in the pan-handle and East Texas, no doubt due to the significant racist and sexist vote.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:45:01 am
Wow, am I the only one who thought that what has happened tonight was how things would turn out?

Not really.  If this makes sense at all (probably not), I expected my expectations to be much more off than they were.

Fun night, though!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:45:31 am
Wow, am I the only one who thought that what has happened tonight was how things would turn out?

Not really.  If this makes sense at all (probably not), I expected my expectations to be much more off than they were.

Fun night, though!

I understand how you feel.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:46:01 am
Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Gustaf on March 05, 2008, 12:46:20 am
And now El Paso came in. Clinton up by another 10k.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:46:36 am
Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 05, 2008, 12:47:19 am
FOX calls for Hillary.



OH BABY


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 12:47:42 am
Damnit Texas. Do you ever fail to disappoint me?!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 12:47:56 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.
The SoS is showing Clinton up 64-62 on the primary delegates.  She is also up 55%:44% in election day voting.  You have people who voted early two weeks ago, who you're going to try to get to come back on a cold night to a different place than where they voted the first time.  Those who voted late on election day can just stick around for the caucus.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:48:13 am
Hamilton County now in - Hillary's margin down to twelve.  Depending on what's out in Cuyahoga, Obama could pull it down into single digits, maybe.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:49:09 am
Hamilton County now in - Hillary's margin down to twelve.  Depending on what's out in Cuyahoga, Obama could pull it down into single digits, maybe.

None of Cleveland is reporting, not until 4:30 a.m.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:49:38 am
Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

I said the end of the world was at hand - you didn't believe me.  Now comes 1000 years of darkness for Minneapolis.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 12:50:33 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.
The SoS is showing Clinton up 64-62 on the primary delegates.  She is also up 55%:44% in election day voting.  You have people who voted early two weeks ago, who you're going to try to get to come back on a cold night to a different place than where they voted the first time.  Those who voted late on election day can just stick around for the caucus.

Not actually true, as the caucuses were in different locations from the primaries. And I was under the impression (haven't checked myself) that it was Obama who led 64-62 in delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 12:51:29 am
CNN calls it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2008, 12:51:37 am
Another thing - if I had to guess at this moment, I wouldn't be surprised if my Hillary +3 prediction in Texas nails it...  Unless the missing areas are blacks or upper-income whites.  Hillary's been gaining a good bit in the same-day voting numbers almost everywhere.

So ARG is right too?

As I said before, a broken clock is right twice a day.  My prediction also jives with Zogby.  I made it before both of them

Obvious explanation: ARG & Zogby simply copied your prediction in their "polls".


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 12:52:10 am
Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 12:56:41 am
Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 12:57:33 am
Anyone (Sam especially), have a link to a map/list/something to help me out?

Click to Texasize


(http://home.pipeline.com/~jimrtex/_uimages/texassenate2004.png) (http://home.pipeline.com/~jimrtex/_uimages/texassenate2004.png)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 05, 2008, 12:58:32 am
BTW, Webb has fully reported. So has Nueces.

So, what's left:

El Paso 54% reporting, 69%C
Hidalgo 47% reporting 73% C
Bexar 75% reporting 57%C

Dallas 71% reporting 62% O
Tarrant 71% reporting 54% O
Harrist 50% reporting 58% O
Travis 89% reporting 63% O

Am I missing anything big?

Overall, Clinton should win the PV here, but not by 70 thousand votes - I'd conjecture, it will be halved.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 12:59:17 am
Networks are calling Texas for Clinton. I would wait a bit personally.



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 05, 2008, 01:00:55 am
You guys, the delegate results tonight are fairly unimportant, this is huge for Clinton, that much is obvious no matter who you support, she's not only not out of it, she's neck and neck and heading into territory very favorable to her.




Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:01:43 am
Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

No, you see, I applaud when people admit a defeat. You have yet to do so.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on March 05, 2008, 01:01:54 am
YES SHE WILL!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:02:20 am
Interesting election note: Democratic *primary election* turnout in Webb County was only 558 votes short of 2004 *general election* turnout.

Hillary pulled a Henry Cuellar.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Lief 🐋 on March 05, 2008, 01:03:15 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 01:03:28 am
YES SHE WILL!

I agree entirely.

I use to really dislike Clinton and McCain, untill I saw the general axis of evil opposing them.

McCain, I still dislike more, due to illegal immigration.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 01:04:48 am
Caucus is interesting - Obama is doing fine save for low-population, highly Republican rural areas and the Hispanic counties, where he is getting absolutely obliterated.

31-0 in Zapata, 115-5 in Starr...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:05:22 am
A good night for Clinton.

Two more WY and MS.  MS should be safe Obama.  Bill is heading to WY.

Now, this was Obama's third chance to close the deal, and he couldn't do it.  That could be one of many factors that will convince the super delegates to stay uncommitted.  Welcome to the Keystone State one and all.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 01:05:55 am
i am unbelievably hyped up about loving county, texas

Here's who they're loving:

Obama 7
Clinton 5
Edwards 5
Richardson 4
Dodd1
Biden 0

And 0 loving votes for the Republicans.
Loving doesn't hold a Republican primary since they elect the county officials in the primary.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:06:18 am
Clinton did better than I thought she would. She won Ohio by a fair amount, although not the sort of margin she needed to have any hope of catching up with pledged delegates. She won the Texas primary, and she's currently up 65-61 with their delegates. That net of 4 should be cancelled out by Obama's expected win in the caucus. She's looking stronger than before, but Obama is definitely still the front-runner, before she was looking like a joke.

Wow, you're such a hack jFRAUD. [/Phil and J. J.]

No, you see, I applaud when people admit a defeat. You have yet to do so.

I completely agree with his post pretty much.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 05, 2008, 01:06:27 am
What a terrible night. I got food poisoning or something from sushi causing me to keep throwing up and now Obama got his ass kicked by Hillary tonight. Ugh.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:06:44 am
Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:07:02 am
I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas

I don't know about you but I'm certainly enjoying a good laugh.



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:07:17 am
YES SHE DID! TONIGHT AT LEAST.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 01:07:51 am
A good night for Clinton.

Two more WY and MS.  MS should be safe Obama.  Bill is heading to WY.

Now, this was Obama's third chance to close the deal, and he couldn't do it.  That could be one of many factors that will convince the super delegates to stay uncommitted.  Welcome to the Keystone State one and all.

Mississippi and Wyoming should recover Obama somewhat. He is still the front runner :(.

Obama could have distroyed Hillary in NH, Super Tuesday and today, and he stil did not do that.  Many people continue to have second thoughts about this Chicago clown.

J.J. please make sure Clinton wins PA. Thanks.



Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 05, 2008, 01:08:01 am
You guys, the delegate results tonight are fairly unimportant, this is huge for Clinton, that much is obvious no matter who you support, she's not only not out of it, she's neck and neck and heading into territory very favorable to her.


You are right and wrong. Both are important.

Clinton has, of course, shown viability. She will go on - and rightly so. 2% swing in Texas, even if it weren't significant in delegates, and she'd be much closer to being out of the race. PV victory is important.

Still, the delegate count is also hugely important: there is just too little left. In order to win the convention she'd have either to win with huge margins in remaining state races, or somehow pursuade the bulk of the remaining superdelegate to vote for her. There are just not enough of big states left, period. The laws of arithmetic are getting pretty bad for her.

Still, today is, unquestionably, her day: she survived to give another fight. She is still a heavy underdog, though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:09:05 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?

Getting ridiculously high turnout from Webb County in a low-turnout election.  See, e.g. 2002 midterms, 2004 and 2006 Dem primaries.

I thought you were a Kossack and would remember this.  :D


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:09:35 am
Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.

No, but it might hold down an Obama lead.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 01:10:55 am
Bill is heading to WY.

That settles it. WY = Safe Clinton.

No, but it might hold down an Obama lead.

Wyoming is safe Obama.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 01:12:27 am
Chuck Todd on MSNBC is saying that even if Clinton's 2 point lead in TX holds up, his best guess (because of the particular districts where each candidate won) is that Obama nets about 3-4 delegates just from the *primary* contest in TX....this doesn't count what happens in the TX caucus, which we don't know about yet.
The SoS is showing Clinton up 64-62 on the primary delegates.  She is also up 55%:44% in election day voting.  You have people who voted early two weeks ago, who you're going to try to get to come back on a cold night to a different place than where they voted the first time.  Those who voted late on election day can just stick around for the caucus.

Not actually true, as the caucuses were in different locations from the primaries. And I was under the impression (haven't checked myself) that it was Obama who led 64-62 in delegates.
It is now Clinton 65:61 on delegates.

The caucuses were at the same location as the polling places (which is not necessarily the same for both parties).  Early voting was at centralized locations.  For example, Harris County had 36 early voting locations, and you can vote at any one.  On election day, you have to vote in your election precinct's polling place.  There are 874 precincts, though there were only about 400 polling places for each party.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 05, 2008, 01:13:13 am
If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:13:44 am
If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

It's not, but it could cancel out the delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 01:13:59 am
I'm going to laugh heartily when Obama wins Texas

I don't know about you but I'm certainly enjoying a good laugh.

Yea, yea, yea - I thought about phrasing it so I could weasel out if I was wrong, but oh well, I'll eat my crow


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:14:50 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 05, 2008, 01:16:26 am
 Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MarkWarner08 on March 05, 2008, 01:17:08 am
My primary vote (I'll register in Oregon before I move to Texas) may actually matter this year! Yay!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 01:17:21 am
Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 01:18:20 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.



Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.


I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Maybe you should short him on InTrade. He's at 73.5%.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 05, 2008, 01:18:52 am
If 11 straight wins couldn't deliver Texas or Ohio, how the HELL is Mississippi and Wyoming going to help deliver PA, a closed primary??

They won't. But after them, Clinton would have that much a tougher job catching up in delegates. Early on, momentum is everything. You don't care about NH delegates - you care about NH. Later, that's simply not the case: every delegate starts counting. And when PA comes, Obama will be able to afford loosing it narrowly - Clinton won't.

Still, once again, let me make clear: today is Clinton's day. She did what she had to. It might not be enough, but she is still in.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 01:19:06 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:19:16 am
Hillary is not going to drop out after winning PA... This is going to go all the way to the convention. The Democrats are in serious trouble.

I have no facts to back this up, but I have a feeling it will be Obama who drops out. Not now, of course, but in a matter of weeks.

Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:19:45 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:20:52 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: MarkWarner08 on March 05, 2008, 01:21:25 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.
Cuellar was the only Democrat in a contested primary who won the Club for Growth's endorsement...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: auburntiger on March 05, 2008, 01:22:12 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

I agree, and your governor is behind her too.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ag on March 05, 2008, 01:22:51 am
While we were talking, the bulk of Harris Co. reported - and it didn't do anything for Obama (his absolute lead in the county remained at 50 thousand). Looks like Clinton will, actually, hold something like her current lead - 80 thousand, +- a bit.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:25:10 am
What is "pulling a Henry Cuellar"?

Republicans voting for the most Republican candidate in the Democratic primary in Texas.

This is sig material.
Cuellar was the only Democrat in a contested primary who won the Club for Growth's endorsement...

Look, the Kossacks never understood that area.  Looks like the Obamamites still don't understand it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:26:24 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 01:27:09 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

Isn't ARG the new gold standard?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:28:09 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:28:56 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jesmo on March 05, 2008, 01:29:35 am
Alright Obama folks, please restrain yourselves, and don't cause any riots tonight over the results.

Thanks.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:32:55 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

Quinnipiac is a very reliable uni poll but don't worry. We'll have plenty of other polls showing her ahead comfortably and then you'll whine about those, too.

I can't wait to see the margins she runs up in the Pittsburgh, Erie and Scranton areas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:33:47 am
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

Rasmussen disagrees.

LOL

Ok. Want me to name the other polls that had her up over ten points? By the way, those polls with Obama closing in mean nothing now. Easy win in OH = easy win in PA.

You mean a bunch of uni polls? Yeah sure.

Quinnipiac is a very reliable uni poll but don't worry. We'll have plenty of other polls showing her ahead comfortably and then you'll whine about those, too.

I can't wait to see the margins she runs up in the Pittsburgh, Erie and Scranton areas.

The most recent Quinnipiac has her up only 6.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:34:04 am
I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 01:34:39 am
Delegate totals.

Obama wins VT 9-6
Clinton wins RI 13-8
Clinton is currently winning TX-P 65-61

I can't find good delegate estimates for OH or TX-C. Anyways, it looks like for the first time, she won the pledged delegates for all the states that voted a particular day. Of course Obama will win Wyoming and Mississippi.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:35:36 am
Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 01:37:27 am


The most recent Quinnipiac has her up only 6.

And that was during the time when Obama was sweeping into the lead everywhere. Just wait until the next round of polling. I'm betting she's up at least ten.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: The Man From G.O.P. on March 05, 2008, 01:38:20 am
Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.


When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:39:17 am
I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:39:39 am
And in other places, like across Pennslyvania in the West, there were a lot of 3 Clinton delegates, 2 Obama delegates. With Clinton winning the state by 56%., the delegate split is 82 Clinton, 76 Obama, hardly an exciting firewall for Clinton.

So a Republican's projection is even worse for Hillary by mine with a double digit victory.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:40:33 am
I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Might be trouble if it wasn't odd numbered in terms of delegates, I have it going 4-3.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:42:56 am


Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 01:47:20 am
I've looked at the CD's and the heaviest is 50% African American (but it keeps electing Bob Brady).  Most of even the 5  districts are heavily Caucasian.  PA is not Obama territory.

I think you're missing Chaka Fattah's CD.  Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Brady's CD has 9 delegates, Fattah's, the really big African American District, has 7.

I can actually see Clinton taking some of the 5 seat districts strongly enough to get 4 delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:48:40 am
Obama's not going to drop out as long as he has a delegate lead. That'd be just ridiculous.

It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.

1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.

On a side note, why have you not answered up for that nonsense you spewed about Wisconsin?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 05, 2008, 01:49:20 am
Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

If she wins between 50% and 58.3% of the two candidate vote, and it's uniform, she nets 13 district delegates. Winning by 10 points would net her 18 or 19 delegates.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 01:50:25 am
Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.

If she wins between 50% and 58.3% of the two candidate vote, and it's uniform, she nets 13 district delegates. Winning by 10 points would net her 18 or 19 delegates.

I have her winning by ten points in that.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: bgwah on March 05, 2008, 02:02:09 am
Hmm, a disappointing night...

But on the bright side, I might get full points for my predictions!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2008, 02:13:44 am
22% now reporting in the Texas caucus:

Obama 56%
Clinton 44%


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Meeker on March 05, 2008, 02:18:42 am
25%, now Obama 55-45


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 02:20:11 am
Obama potentially could come out with a delegate lead based on primary results alone in Texas.  There are 5 delegates that appear to be in play.

Current: Clinton 64 : Obama 62

In 4 delegate districts, a candidate needs 62.5% of the two-candidate total to get a 3:1 split.

SD 3 (East Texas) Clinton at 62.78% with 84% reported.

SD 15 (Northish Houston) Obama at 63.23% with 99.4%

SD 19 (S, W, and N SA and points west to El Paso) Clinton at 62.51% with 73% reported.

SD 26 (C San Antonio) Clinton at 62.26% with 75% reported (SoS just flipped this to a 2:2 split)

And then there is a 6-delegate district in S Dallas, where 75% will give the leader 5 delegates:

SD 23 (S Dallas) Obama at 73.98% with 47% reported.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 02:30:55 am
Aren't most of the whites in Brady's CD ethnics?  And isn't there a decent Puerto Rican population in Brady's CD too?

Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.


Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.


When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 02:32:24 am
Another note for tonight - The exit polls really sucked in Ohio and RI - way off.  Theories?  Well, RI was expected, but...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 02:34:08 am
Please note that my projection here (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=71855.0) has Hillary up in PA only 9 delegates based on a 10 point victory.


When are you taking the cartoon out of your signature?

I've largely forgotten about it, but I'm not going to take it now and give you satisfaction for causing it.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 02:40:09 am
It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.
1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.
Are you going to keep Granholm, Stabenow, Levin, Dingell, Bonior, Conyers, Kilpatrick, Hoffa, and a bunch of UAW members out?  That ought to make good theater.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 02:41:34 am
It is really too bad that the Texas result is going to be more like 4%-5%.  I was really hoping to get it exactly right.  :(


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Iosif is a COTHO on March 05, 2008, 02:57:31 am
Once 'THE COMEBACK KID' euphoria has died down, people will quickly realize that Clinton still has barely any chance of winning the nomination.

I'm sure double digit wins for Obama in Wyoming and Mississippi next week will sober them up. I'm not worried.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: True Democrat on March 05, 2008, 06:31:58 am
I just woke up and looked the results.

100k votes! Wow, what a margin.  Clinton really closed in Houston.  Even the caucus is close.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 05, 2008, 06:46:15 am
I'm really surprised that Clinton is that close in caucus.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2008, 07:06:23 am
Very, very interesting results, yes.

In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.

Always nice to get something right (more or less) even if it was a little obvious :)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2008, 07:07:41 am
Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on March 05, 2008, 07:09:51 am
Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?

Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island also voted for Reagan. :p


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2008, 07:10:15 am
What's with Obama only leading by 2% Cuyahoga?

More like 7 or so now, but the answer is still the same; white ethnics.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: John Dibble on March 05, 2008, 07:12:37 am
Well, I wake up to disappointing results, but oh well. Looks like we might be going to convention. I suppose the silver lining is that Hillary didn't win with the margins she needed for this to be completely decisive in Texas.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: King Jellybean on March 05, 2008, 09:21:45 am
Eh, it could have been worse. Looks like a divided party though.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 11:11:57 am
Very, very interesting results, yes.

In Ohio the main areas to look out for should, stress "should", be the more urban of the various traditional industrial areas (this is not the same thing as areas with the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs. Just thought I'd point that out). Not so much for who wins, but by how much. The rural areas don't matter, Columbus doesn't matter (much), the Southeast of the state (especially) doesn't matter. What matters is the margins (in raw votes as much as percentages) in the sort of areas mentioned above.

Always nice to get something right (more or less) even if it was a little obvious :)

I should bump you up, if I can find it 30 pages ago, to the initial exit poll releases, which were once again way off, except in Clinton's direction.

Two in particular - Ohio was Clinton +3, will end up being Clinton +10
Rhode Island (LOFL) was Clinton +4, will end up being Clinton +18 (or +19)!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: J. J. on March 05, 2008, 11:20:00 am
It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.
1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.
Are you going to keep Granholm, Stabenow, Levin, Dingell, Bonior, Conyers, Kilpatrick, Hoffa, and a bunch of UAW members out?  That ought to make good theater.

I think that is a lot of it.

Obama, to be solid with elected delegates, just to claim a legitimate lead there over Clinton, needs a 110 margin of elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI.  Depending on the count used, he has between 130 (CNN) and 53 (Greenpapers).  By May 1, I predict all legitimate counts will put him below 110.

Obama's last chance might to win elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI by that 110 margin, very well be NC, IN, and KY.  He doesn't, the whole elected delegates argument collapses.  Either candidate basically becomes the nominee because of the super delegates.

It is not a good situation for either candidate.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 11:53:36 am
Just FYI, the Texas SOS site says Clinton 65-61 with 14 precincts left for the primary.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Reaganfan on March 05, 2008, 11:58:04 am
It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.
1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.
Are you going to keep Granholm, Stabenow, Levin, Dingell, Bonior, Conyers, Kilpatrick, Hoffa, and a bunch of UAW members out?  That ought to make good theater.

I think that is a lot of it.

Obama, to be solid with elected delegates, just to claim a legitimate lead there over Clinton, needs a 110 margin of elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI.  Depending on the count used, he has between 130 (CNN) and 53 (Greenpapers).  By May 1, I predict all legitimate counts will put him below 110.

Obama's last chance might to win elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI by that 110 margin, very well be NC, IN, and KY.  He doesn't, the whole elected delegates argument collapses.  Either candidate basically becomes the nominee because of the super delegates.

It is not a good situation for either candidate.

There is one person who benefits from it all....

John McCain.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 12:04:31 pm
Interesting exit poll number for Ohio:

Was race of candidate important to you?
Yes (20%) - Hillary 59%, Obama 39%
No (79%) - Hillary 53%, Obama 45%

Considering the way people lie on this question...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: King Jellybean on March 05, 2008, 12:06:18 pm
So, what happens now? What happens if there is a brokered convention?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 12:47:13 pm
Interesting exit poll number for Ohio:

Was race of candidate important to you?
Yes (20%) - Hillary 59%, Obama 39%
No (79%) - Hillary 53%, Obama 45%

Considering the way people lie on this question...

Woah.

At least they're honest...at least some of them.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 05, 2008, 01:06:15 pm
Just for sh!ts and giggles:

Was race of candidate important to you?

Texas
Yes (19%) - Hillary 52%, Obama 47%
No (80% - Hillary 51%, Obama 48%

Rhode Island
Yes (18%) - Hillary 65%, Obama 35%
No (81%) - Hillary 58%, Obama 42% (liars)

Vermont
Yes (13%) - Hillary 42%, Obama 58% (hippys)
No (87%) - Hillary 38%, Obama 60%

Was gender of candidate important to you?
Texas
Yes (23%) - Hillary 60%, Obama 40%
No (75%) - Hillary 48%, Obama 50%

Ohio
Yes (17%) - Hillary 60%, Obama 40%
No (83%) - Hillary 53%, Obama 45%

Rhode Island
Yes (21%) - Hillary 75%, Obama 25%
No (78%) - Hillary 55%, Obama 44%

Vermont
Yes (17%) - Hillary 67%, Obama 33%
No (82%) - Hillary 32%, Obama 66%

Conclusion:  Among Democrats, racists outnumber misogynists, unless you think of pro-women voters as misogynist (not unreasonable)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 01:08:35 pm
"Black pride" voters in Texas and Ohio outnumbered by admitted racists...(and Vermont too, although that voter type in VT is obviously different than TX & OH)...lovely.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Verily on March 05, 2008, 01:19:20 pm
Conclusion:  Among Democrats, racists outnumber misogynists, unless you think of pro-women voters as misogynist (not unreasonable)

That would be misandry, not misogyny.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 01:29:36 pm
Click to Texasize


(http://home.pipeline.com/~jimrtex/_uimages/texasprimary2008.png) (http://home.pipeline.com/~jimrtex/_uimages/texasprimary2008.png)


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on March 05, 2008, 01:35:01 pm
I thought Texas would be bigger than that (http://home.pipeline.com/~jimrtex/_uimages/texasprimary2008.png).


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Keystone Phil on March 05, 2008, 02:35:06 pm
Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?

Actually, they did.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 05, 2008, 03:01:27 pm
It might be a situation where, in July, Obama is told, "You have a majority of the elected delegates, but to keep that you'll have to disenfranchise FL and MI, if full view of the television cameras, in August."  Even if he wins, he loses.

Obama needs to get a 110 to 165 lead of elected delegates.  He can still do it, but it will be a long fight.
1-The DNC doesn't agree with you.
2-Arguing that Hillary's lead in Michigan is legitimate is hackery of the worst type. For Florida there might be a point, but not Michigan.
Are you going to keep Granholm, Stabenow, Levin, Dingell, Bonior, Conyers, Kilpatrick, Hoffa, and a bunch of UAW members out?  That ought to make good theater.

I think that is a lot of it.

Obama, to be solid with elected delegates, just to claim a legitimate lead there over Clinton, needs a 110 margin of elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI.  Depending on the count used, he has between 130 (CNN) and 53 (Greenpapers).  By May 1, I predict all legitimate counts will put him below 110.

Obama's last chance might to win elected delegates exclusive of FL/MI by that 110 margin, very well be NC, IN, and KY.  He doesn't, the whole elected delegates argument collapses.  Either candidate basically becomes the nominee because of the super delegates.

It is not a good situation for either candidate.

So why should MI's numbers count in elected delegates when anyone with an ounce of intelligence can blatantly see that MI's delegate numbers don't even remotely reflect the opinion of the voters of the state?


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 05, 2008, 03:53:12 pm
Yes. Obama will win the district but Hillary will do very, very well among the whites in South Philly.

Didn't South Philly vote for Reagan?

Actually, they did.

Ah. Well, we all know how urban-ethnic-working class areas that first disliked and then grew to loath Carter have gone this year...


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Mr. Morden on March 05, 2008, 03:54:34 pm
We're now up to 38% reporting in the Texas caucus.  Obama's lead is up to 56%-44%.  At this rate, we should have all the results in by May.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Flying Dog on March 05, 2008, 04:08:31 pm
39% in 56-44


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 04:09:33 pm
My extrapolation from the repored Senate districts results in:

Obama 53,605 (55%)
Clinton 44,089 (45%)
Uncommitted 103
Other 9


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 07:03:19 pm
My extrapolation from the repored Senate districts results in:

Obama 53,605 (55%)
Clinton 44,089 (45%)
Uncommitted 103
Other 9
How did you extrapolate?

Each election precinct was entitled to 1 county delegate for each 15 votes for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2006 (Chris Bell).  So that the sum of the delegates in the left column is the total number of county delegates (88,074).

To get the projected number of county delegates for each candidate for each senate district, you should take the current known delegate totals in the district, and project those over the total number of county delegates for each senate district. 

The percentage of precincts reporting is meaningless, expect perhaps as an indication of distributional bias - if you have relative more small precincts reporting, then the percentage of small precincts reporting will be higher than the percentage of delegates selected.

For example, SD 1 has 2665 county delegates.  Currently there are 474 Obamaniacs and 324 Clintonians, and 1 uncommitted (799 total).  So the projected number of Obamaniacs for SD 1 is (2665*474/799) or 1580, and 1080 Clintonians.

Based on that method, I get a 59-41% statewide split, assuming that the distribution of county delegates within each SD does not change.

At the county conventions, state delegates will be chosen - but they will be chosen by election precinct or groups of election precincts, with one state delegate for each 180 Bell votes fractions truncated.  The allocation of state delegates will be based on the sign-in vote at the precinct conventions.  So the state delegates should be roughly proportional to the county delegates - subject to some pretty severe truncation errors.  If I understand the allocation of delegates for precincts, then in Harris County, 1 precinct will have 6 state delegates, 1 will hav 5, 5 will have 4, 34 will have 3, 125 will have 2, 202 will have 1, and the remaining precincts will share 391 delegates.

Delegates to the national convention will be based on shares of delegates at the state convention.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2008, 07:24:32 pm
I just extrapolated the given SD counts based on the % reporting.  That is, I divided the current SD count by the percent reporting.  My intent was way more simplistic than you think, I'm afraid.  :P


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: jimrtex on March 05, 2008, 10:33:51 pm
I just extrapolated the given SD counts based on the % reporting.  That is, I divided the current SD count by the percent reporting.  My intent was way more simplistic than you think, I'm afraid.  :P
You should have divided the current SD counts by the percentage actually allocated.

Anyhow, I miscalculated the percentages.

Updated results: 

Obama 48,718 delegates, 55.3%, 37 national delegates.
Clinton 39,261 delegates, 44.6%, 30 national delegates.

Results are coming in very slow, maybe 0-5 precincts per SD over 3 hours.  And in a few cases there were decreases in the number of precincts reported.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: 12th Doctor on March 07, 2008, 05:45:28 pm
My current delegate projection by the way are Obama +6 in Wyoming, Obama +9 in Mississippi and Hillary +9 in Pennsylvania.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by 9 points, this probably is going to the convention after all.

She's winning PA by at least nine.

I agree, and your governor is behind her too.

All the polls I have seen recently have her way out ahead.  I don't expect that to change either.  The Democrat electorate in PA are the kind of old school grizzled types who don't know the New Deal Coalition died 20 years ago (at least).  They'll come out for Hillary in droves.  Plus with the Rendell turnout machine on her side, she can't lose.

Even after all of this Hillary is still gonna win... unless she get blown out everywhere else, which I doubt.  Obama has no clue how to engage in the kinda backdoor, cloak and dagger stuff that is going to happen before the convention... the Clinton's are Hall-of-Famers.  And if Obama hires that people he will need to take out Clinton, then it will irreparably tar his image.  He can't win.


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Sam Spade on March 09, 2008, 01:20:37 am
Anecdotal report:  My parents, both Obama supporters for now (my father switches back and forth) report from a 70-75% Hispanic precinct in the middle of Houston's East End (a little bit more upperclass than most).  150-25 Clinton.  Obama barely reaches viability.  Maybe through their showing up.

This afternoon, my father drove his car up the driveway to their home.  Someone had smashed a watermelon all over the concrete on the driveway.  It wasn't a seedless watermelon.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN PEOPLE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I NEED SOME ANSWERS!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


Title: Re: Official March 4th Results Discussion Topic
Post by: Aizen on March 09, 2008, 01:23:15 am
Anecdotal report:  My parents, both Obama supporters for now (my father switches back and forth) report from a 70-75% Hispanic precinct in the middle of Houston's East End (a little bit more upperclass than most).  150-25 Clinton.  Obama barely reaches viability.  Maybe through their showing up.

This afternoon, my father drove his car up the driveway to their home.  Someone had smashed a watermelon all over the concrete on the driveway.  It wasn't a seedless watermelon.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN PEOPLE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I NEED SOME ANSWERS!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


1. Black people like watermelon
2. Smashed watermelon represents Obama getting smashed in Texas
3. Your father was an Obama supporter so if he supports Obama again he will in turn get smashed- watermelon style