Talk Elections

Weird how large the difference between RV and LV is. Either, way, Rove can't be happy that a poll that is Republican biased has Kerry doing so well.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/18/ohio/index.html

Republican biased poll?

This is a huge difference between RV and LV.

Kerry? Up 10 points in Ohio? Suuuure.

8% difference between RV and LV....

Gonna have to think about that

Oversampling of weak Kerry supporters combined with that ad campaign by the Swift Boat chaps?

2% sounds more like it than 10%.  

Will Nader be on the ballot in Nov.?

The ballot requirements in Ohio seem pretty easy for such a large state, 8,000 signatures.

Kerry is almost unquestionably up in WV right now.

Kerry IS NOT up 10% in Ohio.  That poll SUCKS.  Up 10 in Florida MAAAAAAYYYYBE.

Nop he's up nowhere close to ten in either one, but I think he is up 2-3 in both.  Which is good.

Gallup's weighting and/or screening for LVs has been consistantly strange this year.  There simply can't be that much of a difference between RVs and LVs when the samples should be mostly overlapping.  Between this, their post-convention national poll, and their post-Edwards NC poll, I'm really starting to lose faith in Gallup.  

  The posters at Free Republic wet their pants when Gallup said Bush was ahead by 3+ points, my guess now they will say Gallup is bought and paid for by the Kerry camp.

 Again, I think that Gallup is off here as well. Bush I feel is a little behind in Ohio, maybe by more than 2 points but not less than 5 points. Again, people have to see that economics plays a large role here. A man may go to churcn every sunday, own 20 guns, but if he was laid off and his job sent to China, while his son cant get any footing in the construction industry because so many illegal aliens have been imported, he will be quite reluctant to vote for Bush.

Gallup is not the greatest state pollster out there.  Not terrible either, but not the best either.

Anyone willing to bet that Kerry wins Ohio by 10 points oin November? I'll take Bush and 10 points, heck I'll take Bush and 6 points.Man that would be some easy money my way. lol.

CNN Polls are Republican Biased? Since when?

MOE is over 5 on this one. I don't know. I don't think it's 10, but the warning sign here once again is that Bush is not locking down his states. Kerry is locking down or has locked down the Gore states, which we see repeatedly.

I don't think Kerry has locked down Wisconsin, Iowa, and probably not Minnesota. I also think Bush has a shot at least in Oregon.

I would agree with your assessment of Iowa and Wisconsin.  I would add NH to that list.  Kerry will likely take NH, but with that state you never know.

I think that right now Bush's chances in WI and IA are good. Looking back on the 2000 election, I'm surprised that Gore didn't take NH so at this time it's likely that NH will go for Kerry but you never know.

I don't know...Kerry and Bush are tied in Wisconsin (Strategic Vision, 1% lead for Kerry in Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota...Illinois and Michigan are locked when it comes to the midwest...

Maybe theoretically possibly IA and WI, but not the rest. See, I don't see Bush carrying IA and WI if he can't manage OH and WV because, at least my experience, you run up against roughly the same kind of people in those states.

MN and OR are out of the question, IMO. MN has symbolic worth for me - I want it to go GOP in positively the worst way, realizing it's not exactly worth a treasure trove of EV's, but it hasn't gone GOP in so long and it's got to flip one of these cycles. I think it's in the position where if we elected another Carter and things really went down the toilet, I mean big time, a Republican could have a shot at MN.

Kerry isn't up by 10... 5 at most, probably 2.55555r :P

An 8-point disparity favoring Bush between registered voters and likely voters can mean one of two things:

1. Republicans are substantially more likely to actually vote than Democrats.
2. This poll sucks.

It might be the first option.  However, given the fact that Gallup was the polling agency that dredged up the 3-point lead for Bush following the Democratic National Convention, in spite of every other polling agency turning up at least a slight lead for Kerry, I'm inclined to think that it's the second.  Plus, a margin of error of 5% is huge, which leads me to believe further that this poll is telling us, first and foremost, "we had absolutely no clue what we were doing".

Though he did do so last time around. Look at the county map of Ohio in 96 and 2000. Look at the Southeast, to be precise.
Oh, and I think you meant "not more than 5 points." :)

It might be "the sort of people who are registered but don't vote that often are voting Kerry this time - if they vote, that is".
But I agree, the second option is somewhere in the mix.

True, but Bush wasn't in power then

That indeed would appear as the main reason, I'd say.

I think IA and MN are both locked down, more or less. The weak Gore states are New Mexico, Wisconsin and Oregon, I'd say. Perhaps also Pennsylvania, though I'm beginning to lose faith there.

Keep the faith young Jedi warrior - the force is strong... Let's talk Pennsylvania in about a month... ;)

Is your faith restored as I said it would be young Jedi...?

What do you need to speculate and analyze all these polls. Better listen to me and here is what I say:

As to Bush that's what will be:

WV>OH>National>PA>FL

lol.  i love shira.  her confidence is very attractive attribute.

First off, since when is Gallup biased to the GOP?

Second, the campaigns have their own internal polls that are deadly accurate, so I'm sure that Rove doesn't give a sh**t about this result.

First, I don't trust this survey because of the large difference between likely and registered voters.

Second, the last time a Democrat has done better in Ohio than in the nation was in 1972 when McGovern only lost Ohio by 21.56% margin.

From 1972=2000 the Democrat candidate for President has on the average underperformed his national average by 1.83% in Ohio.

So, to believe the Ohio results for likely voters, you would have to believe that Kerry at that time was ahead nationally by about four points.

Gustaf comment 1 month ago he was "losing faith" and I replied 1 month ago that

he should "have faith young Jedi - this state will be close" or words to that effect.

I bumped the thread when I posted a new comment today (based upon PA's tossup status) to asked if his "faith had been restored young Jedi".

Sorry for the confusion...

This is a month old poll :(

I'm reconciled to the opinion that Bush will carry Ohio, despite its economic woes. Kerry has had small leads from time to time but the polling trend favours Bush

To win Kerry must persuade any lead he has among registered voters to vote.

Dave

I have now rejoined the dark side. :) PA will go to Bush!

hahaha . . . it might, but I'm still not convinced.  :)  I'd rather be "surprised" later on in the campaign.  hahaha

()
I found this niffty little graph that may shed some light on the pertetual "Good Poll/Bad Poll" .......""their Biased/no, their biased" arguments I see on this site. And after seeing this....well.....a picture is worth a thousand words.

The graph is of National Polls performed by the listed firms. The graph also shows the median of the range of polls performed during a particular week. Polls in the + range are Bush leading, - polls show a Kerry lead.

I am struck by a number of things with this graph. 1) The two firms that are consistantly the closest to the median of all polls.......Rasussen and Zogby. Rasmussen consistantly shows a very slight Bush bias, Zogby consistantly shows a very slight Kerry bias. And frankly, for all the talk of how good Gallup is....they are consistantly ALL OVER the field.

As far as I'm concerned, based on this graph, I personally think it is hard to argue against their consistancy and I will judge the status of this race to be somewhere between the latest Rasmussen National polls and the Zogby National polls.