Title: 10% National Swings
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 16, 2008, 01:27:14 PM
This is a totally useless excercise that popped into my head after I did a '72 map with a 10% national swing to McGovern.
2004, 10% to Kerry:
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428-110
2004, 10% to Bush:
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523-15
2000, 10% to Gore:
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509-29
2000, 10% to Bush:
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498-40
2004, 10% to Kerry:
(
428-110
2004, 10% to Bush:
(
523-15
2000, 10% to Gore:
(
509-29
2000, 10% to Bush:
(
498-40
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Alcon on March 16, 2008, 02:04:55 PM
Nor would a 10% swing in WA make it >60 Bush. I assume you're just adding 10 percentage points to their vote share, right? That's actually a 20% swing.
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 16, 2008, 02:09:43 PM
Nor would a 10% swing in WA make it >60 Bush. I assume you're just adding 10 percentage points to their vote share, right? That's actually a 20% swing.
I was working pretty fast, and made a mistake.
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: GPORTER on March 16, 2008, 07:55:13 PM
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Plus 10% to Dole and minus 10% for Clinton.
Plus 10% to Dole and minus 10% for Clinton.
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Iosif is a COTHO on March 16, 2008, 10:49:01 PM
10% to Dukakis (i.e +5 for Dukakis, -5 for Bush)
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Dukakis: 280
Bush: 258
10% to Mondale
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Reagan: 418
Mondale: 120
(
Dukakis: 280
Bush: 258
10% to Mondale
(
Reagan: 418
Mondale: 120
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Iosif is a COTHO on March 16, 2008, 11:02:34 PM
10% to Carter 1980 (-3.5 Reagan, -1,5 Anderson, +5 Carter)
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Carter: 283
Reagan: 255
If you leave out Anderson and make it a straight swing against Reagan of 10, Carter gains Connecticut and Oregon.
10% to McGovern
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Nixon: 492
McGovern: 46
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Carter: 283
Reagan: 255
If you leave out Anderson and make it a straight swing against Reagan of 10, Carter gains Connecticut and Oregon.
10% to McGovern
(
Nixon: 492
McGovern: 46
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Iosif is a COTHO on March 16, 2008, 11:13:06 PM
10% to Humphrey (+5 Humphrey, -4 Nixon, -1 Humphrey) (In Deep South, -3 Nixon, -2 Wallace)
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10% to Goldwater
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Johnson: 440
Goldwater: 98
(
10% to Goldwater
(
Johnson: 440
Goldwater: 98
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 16, 2008, 11:53:10 PM
1960 (+5 Kennedy, -5 Nixon)
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Kennedy: 469
Nixon: 68
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Kennedy: 469
Nixon: 68
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on March 17, 2008, 01:20:38 AM
1940: Roosevelt/Wallace (D) vs. Willkie/McNary (R) 10% to Willkie
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Wendell Willkie (R): 397 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 134 EV
(
Wendell Willkie (R): 397 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 134 EV
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on March 17, 2008, 02:05:39 AM
1936: Roosevelt/Garner (D) vs. Landon/Knox (R): 10% to Landon
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Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 300 EV
Alf Landon (R): 231 EV
(
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 300 EV
Alf Landon (R): 231 EV
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: GPORTER on March 17, 2008, 11:31:29 AM
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A squeaker of a reelection victory for Hoover
Franklin Roosevelt: 261
Herbert Hoover: 270
A squeaker of a reelection victory for Hoover
Franklin Roosevelt: 261
Herbert Hoover: 270
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 17, 2008, 12:10:40 PM
1952 (+5 Stevenson, -5 Eisenhower)
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Eisenhower: 288
Stevenson: 243
1956 (+5 Stevenson, -5 Eisenhower)
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Eisenhower: 408
Stevenson: 123
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Eisenhower: 288
Stevenson: 243
1956 (+5 Stevenson, -5 Eisenhower)
(
Eisenhower: 408
Stevenson: 123
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Robespierre's Jaw on March 17, 2008, 03:33:02 PM
1944: Roosevelt/Truman (D) vs. Dewey/Bricker (R): 10% to Dewey
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Thomas Dewey/John W. Bricker (R): 400 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt/Harry Truman (D): 131 EV
(
Thomas Dewey/John W. Bricker (R): 400 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt/Harry Truman (D): 131 EV
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Erc on March 17, 2008, 08:37:46 PM
+5% to Wallace, 1968 (done proportionally to his vote in each state, so some of the results for the states he did win are more than a bit messed up):
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Nixon: 256
Humphrey: 191
Wallace: 91
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Nixon: 256
Humphrey: 191
Wallace: 91
Title: Re: 10% National Swings
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on March 17, 2008, 10:16:56 PM
1976 (+5 Carter, -5 Ford):
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Carter: 506
Ford: 32
1928: (+5 Smith, -5 Hoover):
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Hoover: 319
Smith: 212
(
Carter: 506
Ford: 32
1928: (+5 Smith, -5 Hoover):
(
Hoover: 319
Smith: 212