Talk Elections

Hillary Clinton - 49%
Barack Obama - 39%
Not Sure - 12%

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. That’s down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 71% earlier in the month.

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. That’s down two points from 57%.

If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. That’s down nine points from 64%.

....

This telephone survey of 690 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary)

Quoi? :O

Strange, but very good news if true. ;)

I´m waiting for PPP though to see what they are saying ...

it's hard to believe we still have nearly a month to go before PA since it seems like we've been exclusively tracking it for so long.

Will Obama ever recover from the Wright scandal?

Wait for more to see if it's an outlier of course, but happy day for now.

Obama Campaign has only really got cracking at PA in the last week or so, plus after the disaster of the Wright affair Obama's speech on race has had nearly universal praise from every news outlet... its not a bad place to begin his recovery from, whats more the Obama campaign would be very keen to enhance it's status in PA as the underdog (somthing they allowed to slip in OH and TX) hence maybe why the last few weeks since March 5th have seen the Obama campaign running a much more low profile effort in PA... it'll be interesting to see what happens now they have to head into a higher gear.

A 10-point loss is about the barrier between a "Clinton victory" and an "Obama victory." If Obama can keep it closer, he "wins", but if Clinton can get the margin above 10, she "wins."

My nig is making a comeback.

Uh-oh, for Clinton. She probably needs more than this.

The change from the last poll is pretty small, but might be large enough to not be noise.

I <3 the double standards.

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

Does he have another registration ready for after the primary? If not, I'll make sure he gets one.  ;)

Oh...mom and pa will surely switch back to the GOP, as will their friends. Don't worry about that, but do worry about them actually voting for Obama if John McCain goes too far right or plays dirty.  (which we feel he won't).

Rasmussen has been showing a slow upward tick for Obama in conjunction with a slow downward tick for Clinton since the beginning of the month:

March 5th
Clinton 52%
Obama 37%

March 12th
Clinton 51%
Obama 38%

March 24th
Clinton 49%
Obama 39%

Hopefully this trend will continue :)

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Only Zogby showed Ohio tied. All the other pollsters got it right.

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

Yes but lower Bucks is blue collar and Montco has some heavily Hispanic areas in Norristown (the county's biggest city).

As phil said...I also posted about Bucks earlier this month, you may wish to read it (if I say so myself)

If He's not absolutely killing hillary in Montco and not givin her a good whippin in bucks...he's in trouble...not just of losing the state, but of keeping it reasonably close with the Hillster.

For Obama to win the state, which is unlikely, or to have a better than average night, he's going to need to perform well in Delaware and Chester too, and give Hillary a run for her money in the exurban areas outside of Philly.  Northeast PA is a lost cause and I dont think the T area dems will be obama friendly either, just as rural maryland and upstate new york weren't.

Obama needs to run strongly in Pittsburgh and in the more affluent suburbs which may be too Republican right now to have many voters, the democrats out there don't really fit his typical voter mold...which may change of course.

Don't care.

Uh, Norristown is 34.8% black and 10.5% Hispanic. Sounds pretty strong for Obama to me. And Montco is less than 3% Hispanic overall.

It's not as heavily Hispanic as I thought.