Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Sam Spade on March 26, 2008, 12:11:55 pm



Title: SUSA: Significance of VP in 15 states
Post by: Sam Spade on March 26, 2008, 12:11:55 pm
So SUSA did this poll on running mates in AL, CA, IA, KS, KY, MA, MN, MO, NM, NY, OH, OR, VA, WA, WI from March 14-March 16 (which was right in the beginning of the Wright mess)

I don't really believe VP is that important as a factor, but it shows which voters may include it as a factor in decisionmaking, I suspect - maybe.

http://www.surveyusa.com/Significance%20of%20Running%20Mate%20March%202008.htm

McCain
AL - 40% for, 30% against, 29% depends
CA - 22% for, 48% against, 30% depends
IA - 28% for, 38% against, 33% depends
KS - 32% for, 33% against, 35% depends
KY - 33% for, 28% against, 39% depends
MA - 23% for, 37% against, 40% depends
MN - 33% for, 38% against, 29% depends
MO - 32% for, 35% against, 33% depends
NM - 27% for, 44% against, 30% depends
NY - 23% for, 40% against, 37% depends
OH - 30% for, 40% against, 30% depends
OR - 27% for, 43% against, 30% depends
VA - 30% for, 40% against, 30% depends
WA - 27% for, 42% against, 31% depends
WI - 26% for, 41% against, 33% depends

Clinton
AL - 24% for, 53% against, 22% depends
CA - 39% for, 38% against, 23% depends
IA - 29% for, 49% against, 22% depends
KS - 21% for, 61% against, 17% depends
KY - 33% for, 50% against, 17% depends
MA - 41% for, 39% against, 20% depends
MN - 34% for, 47% against, 20% depends
MO - 32% for, 47% against, 21% depends
NM - 35% for, 45% against, 20% depends
NY - 38% for, 41% against, 21% depends
OH - 36% for, 46% against, 18% depends
OR - 29% for, 47% against, 25% depends
VA - 30% for, 45% against, 25% depends
WA - 29% for, 47% against, 25% depends
WI - 30% for, 50% against, 20% depends

Obama
AL - 30% for, 58% against, 12% depends
CA - 39% for, 38% against, 23% depends
IA - 34% for, 42% against, 24% depends
KS - 27% for, 51% against, 22% depends
KY - 17% for, 61% against, 22% depends
MA - 35% for, 39% against, 27% depends
MN - 33% for, 44% against, 24% depends
MO - 25% for, 52% against, 22% depends
NM - 35% for, 42% against, 23% depends
NY - 35% for, 40% against, 23% depends
OH - 29% for, 47% against, 24% depends
OR - 33% for, 40% against, 28% depends
VA - 35% for, 44% against, 22% depends
WA - 38% for, 38% against, 24% depends
WI - 37% for, 40% against, 23% depends


Title: Re: SUSA: Significance of VP in 15 states
Post by: Dirty Dan on March 26, 2008, 12:21:09 pm
Again, the redstates are so dangerously cult-like whole majorities will never vote democratic.


But, it appears that the numbers look good for us in VA,NM, IA and WI....not so much in MN, OH


Title: Re: SUSA: Significance of VP in 15 states
Post by: True Federalist on March 26, 2008, 12:29:52 pm
I don't really believe VP is that important as a factor, but it shows which voters may include it as a factor in decisionmaking, I suspect - maybe.

Maybe indeed.  While I do not see myself voting for Obama or Clinton no matter who they select for a running mate, whether I vote for McCain does depend on who he picks.


Title: Re: SUSA: Significance of VP in 15 states
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on March 26, 2008, 02:32:38 pm
Those numbers for Hillary in WA and OR are a bit... uhh... unencouraging...

Just an outlier? An unimportant poll not indicative of what will happen in the GE? Or will Hillary really put WA and OR in play for the Republicans?


Title: Re: SUSA: Significance of VP in 15 states
Post by: Alcon on March 26, 2008, 03:13:06 pm
Percentage of voters who will consider a given candidate:

()

Percentage of "would consider" supporters a given candidate needs to reach 50%:

()

N/A indicates that a candidate already has >50% of the electorate against him/her.

Just an outlier? An unimportant poll not indicative of what will happen in the GE? Or will Hillary really put WA and OR in play for the Republicans?

Polls seem to indicate that the Pacific Northwest would be in play in a McCain vs. Clinton race.