Talk Elections

So SUSA did this poll on running mates in AL, CA, IA, KS, KY, MA, MN, MO, NM, NY, OH, OR, VA, WA, WI from March 14-March 16 (which was right in the beginning of the Wright mess)

I don't really believe VP is that important as a factor, but it shows which voters may include it as a factor in decisionmaking, I suspect - maybe.

http://www.surveyusa.com/Significance%20of%20Running%20Mate%20March%202008.htm

McCain
AL - 40% for, 30% against, 29% depends
CA - 22% for, 48% against, 30% depends
IA - 28% for, 38% against, 33% depends
KS - 32% for, 33% against, 35% depends
KY - 33% for, 28% against, 39% depends
MA - 23% for, 37% against, 40% depends
MN - 33% for, 38% against, 29% depends
MO - 32% for, 35% against, 33% depends
NM - 27% for, 44% against, 30% depends
NY - 23% for, 40% against, 37% depends
OH - 30% for, 40% against, 30% depends
OR - 27% for, 43% against, 30% depends
VA - 30% for, 40% against, 30% depends
WA - 27% for, 42% against, 31% depends
WI - 26% for, 41% against, 33% depends

Clinton
AL - 24% for, 53% against, 22% depends
CA - 39% for, 38% against, 23% depends
IA - 29% for, 49% against, 22% depends
KS - 21% for, 61% against, 17% depends
KY - 33% for, 50% against, 17% depends
MA - 41% for, 39% against, 20% depends
MN - 34% for, 47% against, 20% depends
MO - 32% for, 47% against, 21% depends
NM - 35% for, 45% against, 20% depends
NY - 38% for, 41% against, 21% depends
OH - 36% for, 46% against, 18% depends
OR - 29% for, 47% against, 25% depends
VA - 30% for, 45% against, 25% depends
WA - 29% for, 47% against, 25% depends
WI - 30% for, 50% against, 20% depends

Obama
AL - 30% for, 58% against, 12% depends
CA - 39% for, 38% against, 23% depends
IA - 34% for, 42% against, 24% depends
KS - 27% for, 51% against, 22% depends
KY - 17% for, 61% against, 22% depends
MA - 35% for, 39% against, 27% depends
MN - 33% for, 44% against, 24% depends
MO - 25% for, 52% against, 22% depends
NM - 35% for, 42% against, 23% depends
NY - 35% for, 40% against, 23% depends
OH - 29% for, 47% against, 24% depends
OR - 33% for, 40% against, 28% depends
VA - 35% for, 44% against, 22% depends
WA - 38% for, 38% against, 24% depends
WI - 37% for, 40% against, 23% depends

Again, the redstates are so dangerously cult-like whole majorities will never vote democratic.


But, it appears that the numbers look good for us in VA,NM, IA and WI....not so much in MN, OH

Maybe indeed.  While I do not see myself voting for Obama or Clinton no matter who they select for a running mate, whether I vote for McCain does depend on who he picks.

Those numbers for Hillary in WA and OR are a bit... uhh... unencouraging...

Just an outlier? An unimportant poll not indicative of what will happen in the GE? Or will Hillary really put WA and OR in play for the Republicans?

Percentage of voters who will consider a given candidate:

()

Percentage of "would consider" supporters a given candidate needs to reach 50%:

()

N/A indicates that a candidate already has >50% of the electorate against him/her.


Polls seem to indicate that the Pacific Northwest would be in play in a McCain vs. Clinton race.