Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2008 Elections => Topic started by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 07:44:29 PM



Title: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 07:44:29 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.







Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: John on February 14, 2004, 08:13:17 PM
Nice i love it


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 14, 2004, 08:23:17 PM
Beware, biased prediction coming up. I hope you can all enjoy it though. :)

John Kerry and running mate John Edwards win the 2004 election by a 272-266 margin. Consequently Kerry is the incumbent for 2008 and goes unchallenged (in spite of rumours within some media circles, ie. Drudge and Limbaugh, of a "coup" to install Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.)

GWB's surprise 2004 defeat resulted in an ideological struggle within the Republican Party between moderates (helmed most noteably by John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani) and neocons (Santorum, Jeb Bush). Basically, the moderates believe that GWB lost the election because he was too right-wing and that only a more centre-right candidate could win an election, whereas the neocons believe quite the opposite - that GWB wasn't right-wing enough. This debate is reflected in the primaries, which reveal a deep divide within the GOP.

Rudolph Giuliani surprises many pundits by declaring that he will not run for President. Many believe this to be a ploy by the moderates to unite behind one candidate and not split their vote. That candidate is John McCain, who, just a few years earlier, many felt to be down and out due to ill health and a fading profile. However, his health problems thankfully behind him, McCain is the candidate many believe to be the most electable. His war record easily parallels Kerry's and his national stature is second to none.

Gov. Jeb Bush, after much dithering, eventually decides to throw his hat in the ring. At a rousing speech in St. Petersburg, FL, Jeb Bush declares his intention to run for President in front of his family, including father George, and of course brother George W. Rick Santorum, who some on the fringe of the GOP believed to have a shot at the nomination, decides not to split the neocon vote and instead endorse Jeb Bush. In fact, most of the endorsements reveal a split within the party - but obviously everybody involved denies such a thing. In the uselectionatlas.org forum, prominent user Jmfcst castigates cheeky British chappie Michael Z for even daring to suggest such a thing.

Other Republicans who feel they have a legitimate shot at challenging Kerry include Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole, Lincoln Chaffee, Roy LaHood, and Jim Talent. However, as the primary season goes underway most of these candidates fall to the wayside and eventually drop out of the race, leaving voters with a clear choice between McCain and Jeb Bush, with many fearing a repeat of the 2000 primaries, which were dogged by fiercely negative campaigning between McCain and George W Bush. Thankfully these fears prove to be unfounded and the race is mainly a clean one.

In what turns out to be the most suspense-filled Republican primaries since 1976, McCain eventually wins... but only by a whisker.

And so the inevitable media speculation starts; who will be his running mate? Attention veers from Alexander to Hagel, E. Dole, Talent, Frist, Perry, and Don Rumsfeld(!). The favourite, however, turns out to be Rudolph Giuliani, who threw all his weight behind McCain during the primaries. Then McCain surprises everyone and chooses Bill Frist, a move no doubt designed to bridge the much-documented gap between moderates and not-so-moderates. Giuliani, word has it, will be rewarded for his loyalty in other ways, with a prominent role within a potential McCain Administration.

A brief scare is endured by Democrats when Howard Dean hints at running as the Green Party candidate. That fear, however, is eventually allayed when Jello Biafra is chosen instead (the Green Party's official line being that the ex-Dead Kennedys singer is a "more electable" candidate than Dean).

In November 2008, McCain/Frist take on Kerry/Edwards. Kerry narrowly wins. However, a second Kerry term is dogged by crisis for reasons of something-or-other (this is where my psychic future-telling abilities fail me), and so in 2012 Hagel/Perry beat Edwards/Ford.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: StevenNick on February 14, 2004, 08:26:56 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.


You mentioned Gary Locke's name and I had to run to the nearest toilet and vomit.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: StevenNick on February 14, 2004, 08:31:42 PM
As much as I would love Condi Rice to run, something tells me that she won't.  I've always gotten the impression that she's not terribly interested in the job.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 08:33:16 PM
Lautenberg is like 140 years old.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 08:38:54 PM
If Bush wins:

Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
Republican Ticket: Bill Frist/ Lamar Alexander

Turnout is record low, and Frist wins by a hair.  everybody hates both candidates.

If Bush loses:

Democratic Ticket: John Kerry/John Edwards
Republican Ticket: Jeb Bush/Condi Rice

Kerry wins re-election.

2012 (if Kerry wins two terms):

Democratic Ticket: John Edwards/Erksine Bowles (Who gives a crap if they're from the same state)
Republican Ticket: Lamar Alexander/George P. Bush

Alexander wins.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 14, 2004, 08:39:48 PM
If Bush wins:

Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
Republican Ticket: Bill Frist/ Lamar Alexander

Turnout is record low, and Frist wins by a hair.  everybody hates both candidates.

If Bush loses:

Democratic Ticket: John Kerry/John Edwards
Republican Ticket: Jeb Bush/Condi Rice

Kerry wins re-election.

2012 (if Kerry wins two terms):

Democratic Ticket: John Edwards/Erksine Bowles (Who gives a crap if they're from the same state)
Republican Ticket: Lamar Alexander/George P. Bush

Alexander wins.


Frist and Alexander can't be on the same ticket.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 14, 2004, 08:41:24 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.


You mentioned Gary Locke's name and I had to run to the nearest toilet and vomit.

LOL that's great.  I don't think he would run.  He is having problems in Washington right now.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 08:46:26 PM
While a Rice run is a possible situation, Giuliani is more likely since he says he might run for NYC SENATE in 2006.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 08:47:15 PM
While a Rice run is a possible situation, Giuliani is more likely since he says he might run for NYC SENATE in 2006.
New York City Senate?  No such thing.  There is a City Council, a State Senate, and the US senate (what I think you mean).


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 08:50:06 PM
That's what I mean't.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 14, 2004, 08:50:36 PM
Nobody has commented on my prediction yet...  sniff, sniff...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 14, 2004, 08:51:13 PM
While a Rice run is a possible situation, Giuliani is more likely since he says he might run for NYC SENATE in 2006.

Giuliani isn't thinking about it.  He is doing it.  I believe he already announced it.  Correct me if I'm wrong.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 08:53:46 PM
I hope Hillary loses to Rudy in 2006, because then we can get a halfway electable canddiate for 2008.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Beet on February 14, 2004, 08:55:43 PM
I hope Hillary loses to Rudy in 2006, because then we can get a halfway electable canddiate for 2008.

Why is Hillary Clinton unelectable?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 14, 2004, 08:56:10 PM
I hope Hillary loses to Rudy in 2006, because then we can get a halfway electable canddiate for 2008.

As I have said numerous times, Hillary won't run against Rudy.  She'll sit-out and say she is putting all of her energies toward her presidential campaign.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 08:57:34 PM
I hope Hillary loses to Rudy in 2006, because then we can get a halfway electable canddiate for 2008.

Why is Hillary Clinton unelectable?
Waaaay too polarizing.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 14, 2004, 08:58:01 PM
I hope Hillary loses to Rudy in 2006, because then we can get a halfway electable canddiate for 2008.

Why is Hillary Clinton unelectable?

Hillary is far too polarising, even moreso than GWB.

Edit: lol Staples, great minds think alike. ;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 09:07:27 PM
Nobody has commented on my prediction yet...  sniff, sniff...

I enjoyed it even though you made GWB lose.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 14, 2004, 09:08:15 PM
Nobody has commented on my prediction yet...  sniff, sniff...

I enjoyed it even though you made GWB lose.

Thanks, I liked yours too. :)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Platypus on February 14, 2004, 09:12:47 PM
I'll do a Bush win first, then akerry win.

Bush/Cheney win 2004 election.

In the Democratic Primaries, the main contenders are Howard Dean (Groan), John Edwards, Mark Warner, Hilary Clinton and Bill Richardson. Others include Sharpton, Feingold and Lieberman.

Over the process, two candidates merge with roughly equal votes at the convention, each with roughly 30% of the delegates. They are Warner and Richardson. Clinton has about 20%, Edwards 10% and the rest split between Dean and Sharpton, with Feingold and Lieberman ending up with basically zilch.

Clinton and Edwards endorse Warner, and Dean and Sharpton endorse Richardson. The final ticket is determined as Warner/Edwards.

The Republican primary has only three real contenders; Frist, Nussle and McCain.

Nussle easily wins his home state of Iowa, but his campaign stalls, and after the first super tuesday, he drops out, endorsing Frist.

McCain shoots ahead after winning CA and NY, to get the nomination. He selects Peter Fitzgerald as his running mate.

McCain/Fitzgerald and Waner/Edwards creates a very odd election. With the Democrats having two southerners, and the GOP having a western and mid-westerner, all previous election results are thrown out the window. In the end, McCain/Fitzgerald win, with a margin of 282-256. (I used 2004 EVs).

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Platypus on February 14, 2004, 09:13:31 PM
damn, why does that ALWAYS happen to me?!?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: MarkDel on February 14, 2004, 09:21:23 PM
Hmmm,

i'm confused by all of these Democrats who say Hillary is too polarizing. Personally, I would vote for her before John Kerry, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich or Al Sharpton who compromise four of the five remaining Democrats in the primaries. I disagree with her on a host of issues, but I would trust her with our National Security WAY before guys like Kerry or Dean.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 14, 2004, 09:25:48 PM
Hmmm,

i'm confused by all of these Democrats who say Hillary is too polarizing. Personally, I would vote for her before John Kerry, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich or Al Sharpton who compromise four of the five remaining Democrats in the primaries. I disagree with her on a host of issues, but I would trust her with our National Security WAY before guys like Kerry or Dean.

The trouble is, it's possible for most people to have lukewarm feelings about the candidates you've listed, but a lot of people actively HATE Hillary with every fibre of their body (moreso than they would with Kerry, Dean, etc). At least that's the impression I'm under.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: MAS117 on February 14, 2004, 09:31:38 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.







reaganfan by that time frank lautenberg will be like 80-85


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: BushAlva on February 14, 2004, 09:33:46 PM
Here is my 2004 and 2008 presidential election forecast as well as the 2006 mid-term elections

2004:

 Democrats:
     Sen. John Kerry P
     Gen. Wesley Clark VP

 Republicans:
     Pres. George W. Bush P
     V Pres. Richard Cheney VP

 Electoral Votes:   Rep. 280 -- Dem. 264

  California Goes for Bush
 
  GOP retain control of House and Senate

2006 Mid-Term:

  Dems regain control of Senate.  GOP retain control of the House.

2008:
 
  Democrats:
      Pres. Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D-GA)
      V Pres. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)

  Republicans:
      Pres. Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID)
      V Pres. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)

  Electoral Votes:  Dem. 247   Rep. 304

2012 Preview:

   Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) beats Fmr. Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: agcatter on February 14, 2004, 09:33:51 PM
Hillary's for Hillary.  Don't look for her to be giving Kerry any REAL help in getting to the White House.  My guess is that Hillary and Bill are active behind the scenes doing whatever they can to erect any roadblock they can think of to make sure Kerry's not in a position to run for reelection in 08.  They just can't be obvious about it.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 09:36:05 PM
Lauenberg seems to give me a Democrat VP vibe. I would expect maybe even a Clinton-Bayh ticket.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 09:38:28 PM
Here is my 2004 and 2008 presidential election forecast as well as the 2006 mid-term elections

2004:

 Democrats:
     Sen. John Kerry P
     Gen. Wesley Clark VP

 Republicans:
     Pres. George W. Bush P
     V Pres. Richard Cheney VP

 Electoral Votes:   Rep. 280 -- Dem. 264

  California Goes for Bush
 
  GOP retain control of House and Senate

2006 Mid-Term:

  Dems regain control of Senate.  GOP retain control of the House.

2008:
 
  Democrats:
      Pres. Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D-GA)
      V Pres. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)

  Republicans:
      Pres. Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID)
      V Pres. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)

  Electoral Votes:  Dem. 247   Rep. 304

2012 Preview:

   Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) beats Fmr. Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK)

Vice President Inhofe... President Kempthorne... hmmm. I like it.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 14, 2004, 10:09:32 PM
Bushalva had a strange prediction....the Dems won't nominate barnes when they have big names like Hillary, Gore, and Edwards on the table.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: TheWildCard on February 14, 2004, 10:52:33 PM
Republicans Bush/Cheney
Democrats Kerry/Edwards

In what would be dubbed one of the toughest campignes in US history full of surprises and momentum shifts the biggest shocker would come election night when the Bush/Cheney ticket won the electoral vote 296-242 with narrow wins in MN, WI, IA and the south. the media called it a surprise landslide electoral win.

3 years later the speculation begins who will run for President in '08?

The Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Al Gore
John Edwards
Joe Lieberman

Hillary Clinton as expected announces her plans to run shortly after John Edwards and Joe Lieberman throw their hats into the ring. But then shockingly a candidate from the far left(or acts like it) jumps into the race, nope not Howard Dean though he hinted to it and considered it, but to the shock of many the person is Al Gore.

It is now some begin to ponder "Is Hillary really a shoe in for the nom.?" the doubt would continue as the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire polls are realeased

IA
Gore 31%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 27%
Liberman 10%
2% undecided

NH
Clinton 29%
Gore 28%
Edwards 27%
Liberman 16%

It is after NH that a disapointed Lieberman ends his run for the White House.

Then after the narrow victory in NH the Clinton machine launches into high gear. As it does Lieberman endorses "The person with the most honesty and integrity in this race" John Edwards. The Gore and Clinton campignes are stunned. But at the end it wouldn't matter Hillary's campigne heavily funded goes on to win most of the primaries with minor wins for Gore and Edwards along the way.

The Democratic ticket Clinton/Clark.


The Republicans
Rudy Giuliani
Condi Rice
Tom Ridge
Bill Frist
John McCain

In a press conference hosted by John McCain he prepares to reveal big news many speculate that he will announce his intentions to run for President.

A smileing McCain comes out on the stage and announces that he is not running for the white house but "would like to introduce the next President of the United States of America Rudy Giuliani!"

Soon after Rice, Ridge and Frist(among others) announce their intenstions to run. Guiliani is dubbed the clear front runner

The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries reveal a stunning surprise however

IA
Rice 40%
Giuliani 38%
Frist 14%
Ridge 5%
Other 2%
Undecided 1%

NH
Rice 32%
Giuliani 30%
Frist 29%
Ridge 5%
Other 4%

The Rice team full of former Bush campigne advisors prooves to be nearly unstoppable and wins the nomination with victories for Rudy Giuliani along the way.

Many believe that Jeb Bush will be her running mate but to the shock of many she picks Rudy Guiliani as her VP

Republican Ticket Rice/Giuiliani

The 2008 campigne would proove to be a gritty one. Hillary wins the first debate. The second is dubbed a tie but n the third debate Condi wins big and takes a big lead in the polls.

On election night in one of the biggest voter turn outs in American history Rice/Giuliani wins big.

(Yes I know this probably won't happen but its an interesting read at least)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 14, 2004, 11:25:04 PM
Republicans Bush/Cheney
Democrats Kerry/Edwards

In what would be dubbed one of the toughest campignes in US history full of surprises and momentum shifts the biggest shocker would come election night when the Bush/Cheney ticket won the electoral vote 296-242 with narrow wins in MN, WI, IA and the south. the media called it a surprise landslide electoral win.

3 years later the speculation begins who will run for President in '08?

The Democrats
Hillary Clinton
Al Gore
John Edwards
Joe Lieberman

Hillary Clinton as expected announces her plans to run shortly after John Edwards and Joe Lieberman throw their hats into the ring. But then shockingly a candidate from the far left(or acts like it) jumps into the race, nope not Howard Dean though he hinted to it and considered it, but to the shock of many the person is Al Gore.

It is now some begin to ponder "Is Hillary really a shoe in for the nom.?" the doubt would continue as the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire polls are realeased

IA
Gore 31%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 27%
Liberman 10%
2% undecided

NH
Clinton 29%
Gore 28%
Edwards 27%
Liberman 16%

It is after NH that a disapointed Lieberman ends his run for the White House.

Then after the narrow victory in NH the Clinton machine launches into high gear. As it does Lieberman endorses "The person with the most honesty and integrity in this race" John Edwards. The Gore and Clinton campignes are stunned. But at the end it wouldn't matter Hillary's campigne heavily funded goes on to win most of the primaries with minor wins for Gore and Edwards along the way.

The Democratic ticket Clinton/Clark.


The Republicans
Rudy Giuliani
Condi Rice
Tom Ridge
Bill Frist
John McCain

In a press conference hosted by John McCain he prepares to reveal big news many speculate that he will announce his intentions to run for President.

A smileing McCain comes out on the stage and announces that he is not running for the white house but "would like to introduce the next President of the United States of America Rudy Giuliani!"

Soon after Rice, Ridge and Frist(among others) announce their intenstions to run. Guiliani is dubbed the clear front runner

The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primaries reveal a stunning surprise however

IA
Rice 40%
Giuliani 38%
Frist 14%
Ridge 5%
Other 2%
Undecided 1%

NH
Rice 32%
Giuliani 30%
Frist 29%
Ridge 5%
Other 4%

The Rice team full of former Bush campigne advisors prooves to be nearly unstoppable and wins the nomination with victories for Rudy Giuliani along the way.

Many believe that Jeb Bush will be her running mate but to the shock of many she picks Rudy Guiliani as her VP

Republican Ticket Rice/Giuiliani

The 2008 campigne would proove to be a gritty one. Hillary wins the first debate. The second is dubbed a tie but n the third debate Condi wins big and takes a big lead in the polls.

On election night in one of the biggest voter turn outs in American history Rice/Giuliani wins big.

(Yes I know this probably won't happen but its an interesting read at least)

Wild Card, I LOVED IT!!!!!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on February 14, 2004, 11:40:56 PM
2004:
Kerry/Edwards defeat Bush/Cheney 315-223

2008:
Kerry/Edwards have successful run...win relection over McCain/Guliani 413-125

2012:
Edwards/Clinton win over whoever the GOP nominates....

I seriously think in my closed, bias mind the Dems are on the verge of a big run : P


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on February 14, 2004, 11:50:20 PM

I don't have a prediction for 2008, but how about this one:

In 2016, the Dem nominee will be Stephanie Herseth.


BTW, I think McCain at 68 will probably be too old to run in 2008, especially considering his previous health problems.  Also, I'm surprised no one has mentioned Ed Rendell as a Dem candidate.



Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 15, 2004, 06:32:59 AM
Firstly a Bush landslide of the kind you are predicting Reaganfan is unlikely in the extreme… but I wont deny its possible…. I recently found this analysis of a Kerry vs Bush race (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm ) which suggests it will be highly competitive… should Kerry lose it will be something like… 252 Electoral Votes to 286 for Bush (Bush gains New Mexico and Iowa while Kerry gains New Hampshire)… In the House of Representatives the Dems may well make some small gains but the Republican majority stays firm despite these inroads…In the Senate the GOP gains three seats (GA, SC and NC) while the Dems gain two seats (AK and IL)… Both parties could make larger gains in the Senate however in all probability they will not…

2008:

By 2006 the Budget deficit and Bush’s keenness for liberal spending plans have agitated his Conservative base and he is soon forced to introduce drastic cuts in Social Security and health care as well as other domestic programs, while also raising taxes in an attempt to take on the ballooning budget deficit… these cuts and the rise in taxation comes as a gift for the Democrats who have recently replaced Tom Daschle with Bill Nelson (D-FL) and in the 2006 midterms the Democrats mercilessly attack Republican incumbents across the country over the new taxes and the cuts in social programs…the Democrats as a result manage to recapture both houses of Congress taking a firm if not unassailable majority in the House and a slim majority in the Senate. After several weeks of gridlock between Congress and the White House a new budget is agreed to which spreads the cuts more broadly. Bush is left weakened and concentrates on foreign policy accelerating the full scale US withdrawal from Iraq despite the weakness of the newly instated government there and while this causes some Democrats outcries generally most US voters are glad to see the back of direct US involvement in the middle east at least for the moment. The Budget deficit begins to very slowly contract however still not fast enough for the US electorate…

In early 2007 several Democrats begin to campaign for the Democratic nomination…

Sn. Russ Feingold (D-WI): effective leader of the liberal wing of the party in the senate and he is quickly endorsed by a number of other liberal dems including the 04 candidate for the nomination Howard Dean which proves a big boost as Dean’s network of liberal donors soon swings in behind their new champion.

Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA): from the opposite wing of the party to Feingold but without the stiffness and lack of charisma that often typifies DLC Democrats, with a solid centrist record as PA governor and a record as an excellent campaigner he is quickly endorsed by Senators Jo Lieberman and Evan Bayh as well as Governors Blanco (D-LA) and Warner (D-VA) and a string of other moderate democrats.

Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): with a progressive record as governor of a formerly reliably republican state that has been seen to slowly shift leftwards and a good television presence. Governor Napolitano is seen to be effectively offering herself as a compromise candidate standing between the left (Feingold) and the right (Rendell) and she receives support from the likes of Diana Feinstein and Governor Locke of Washington.

Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN): A moderate southerner Governor with a personable nature much like Rendell and with similar political positions, largely running as a southern alternative with none clearly available.

Fr.Sen. John Edwards (D-NC): A left leaning southern moderate and VP running mate in 2004 with John Kerry, having honed his neo populist positions and cultivated links with organised labour he is hopping for a far more solid base from which to launch is campaign for the nomination that he had in 2004.


Initially it the race is seen as a contest between Fiengold and Napolitano however towards the beginning of fall Rendell’s campaign gains momentum as Napolitano and Feingold stumbles at the same time Edward’s union support comes into play as he concentrates on the Iowa caucus as well as latter industrial states such as Michigan and California.

Iowa Caucus…

John Edwards – 35%
Ed Rendell – 32%
Russ Feingold – 15%                    
Janet Napolitano – 10%
Phil Bredesen   - 8%


New Hampshire Primary (two weeks after IA)...

Ed Rendell – 38%
John Edwards – 22%
Russ Feingold – 20%
Janet Napolitano – 11%
Phil Bredsen – 9%

After New Hampshire Edwards campaign began to lose steam as the moderate voter he was seeking to attract began to side with Rendell and the left leaning voters moved towards Feingold after losing Michigan to Rendell Edwards quit the race some time before him Bredsen (after only gaining one win in the south) also quit the race… after Edwards Napolitano (who had been buoyed by wins in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada had stayed in the race) left the race after a diapionting finish in Missouri and soon Rendell had clinched the nomination against the leftwing challenge of Russ Feingold.

In a bit I’ll deal with the Republicans but gotta go…  


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 15, 2004, 09:50:54 AM
Larry Sabato's map isn't for what he thinks would happen, but what the best case secario for the Dem could be.  Keep that in mind.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 15, 2004, 10:12:09 AM
Sorry Miami I didn’t realise that but from what I read it seems that it is just how the states would most likely be placed in a Kerry v Bush match up… but I’ll continue to outline the 2008 contest…any thoughts?    

Republicans 2008…

So after a narrow Kerry Defeat in 2004 (252 to 286) taking the situation after at the end of the second Bush term to be as I outlined in the last post and having done the Democratic candidates…here goes with the Republicans…

In April 2007 Richard Cheney officially announces that he will not seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008. The following candidates soon pile-in to seek the Republican nomination…

Sn.Bill Frist (R-TN): The former majority now minority leader in the Senate with a solidly conservative record however not so conservative that ordinary voters are tuned away…a good campaigner and a southerner who has despite his very loyal voting record has experience building bipartisan collations to push through legislation.

fr.Gov George Pataki (R-NY): After not running for a fourth term as Governor of New York (Eliot Spitzer soundly defeating the Republican candidate Mary Donohue in 2006) Pataki joined the Bush administration as Sectary of Health and Human Services. Pataki has effectively manoeuvred to place himself as heir apparent to the “Rockefeller Republican” wing of the Party that had last come close to capturing the nomination with the candidacy of John McCain in 2000 and it came as little surprise that both Colin Powel and John McCain quickly endorsed the former Governor’s candidacy.

Sn.Elizabeth Dole (R-NC): With broad executive experience working in the cabinets of both Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior as well as legislative experience as North Carolina’s junior senator Dole has a solid record with which to tout her viability to be President. As with Frist she has a voting record that while Conservative is not so conservative that it alienates independent voters and in fact on a number of issues she has staked out territory to the left of many Republicans which means that she would seem capable of fighting for the support of both the left and centre of the Party.

Sn.Orrin Hatch (R-UT): A Solidly conservative republican senator from a even more solidly conservative state, some gaffes in the past but that does not detract from his massive legislative experience and ability to appeal to the Republican base.

Gov.Haley Barbour (R-MS): A former lobbyist turned Governor of this rock solidly republican, deep southern state… with the most solidly conservative record out of all the mainstream candidates Barbour is very much able to appeal to the republican grassroots particularly those in the south and west. However in many ways Barbour seems to lack the experience or temperament to be able to be a viable candidate for President and added to this he can be seen as too conservative to win over the majority of American voters.


Alan Keyes (R-MD): Coz what would a Republican Primary season be without Alan Keyes.  

New Hampshire Primary…

George Pataki – 39%
Bill Frist – 26%
Elizabeth Dole – 17%
Orrin Hatch – 10%
Haley Barbour – 6%
Alan Keyes - 2%

In the south Frist eventually prevails over Dole while the hardline conservative largely plums for Hatch, while he does poorly in many southern states Pataki makes a very strong sowing when the primaries move back to the north again and by mid March seems to have the nomination sewn up with Frist a solid second followed by Hatch.

As before when I Have time I’ll have a go at outlining the contest between Pataki and Rendell in 2008…

Any Thoughts?      


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 7,052,770 on February 15, 2004, 11:17:02 AM
I can't imagine Gov. Barbour running for president
But I suppose 4 years can make a lot of difference


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 15, 2004, 11:49:26 AM
Liddy Dole will suffer the same quick fate for her campaign if she ran in 2008 as she did in 2000. I can't picture Rice giving stump speeches, and I don't think she'd go for it. Pataki and Frist will be good picks. McCain will be old in 2008, I'm not sure if he will go for it again.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: GOPhound on February 15, 2004, 12:35:40 PM
Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.  After four years of Kerry (yes regrettably I think he's going to win), the GOP is going to be fired up in '08 and ready to win at all costs, just like the Dems are this year.

The party will be looking forward, not backwards.  I think these will be some of the names:

Frist - completely boring, lacks charisma and passion. A disaster in the making.

Pataki - Similar to Frist, though brings a little more excitement.  Not good enough for President, possible VP.

Giuliani - Too liberal to get the nomination.  Too much of a 'big' personality to be VP and play second fiddle.

Santorum - excellent all around.  Telegenic, articulate,  passionate, from a key state.  Will have a problem with the media though on social issues.  I think there's a good chance he wins the nomination and presidency if he runs.

Sununu Jr. - Same as Santorum above, but with a less intense, more appealing personality.  Would obviously kick butt in NH, which as we saw this year is crucial.  I can't think of anyone better right now, he'd be my pick.  He's only 39 right now, will be 43 by the election.  Like Clinton in '92, will be a big contrast to then 64 year old Kerry.

If Sununu can get McCain to be his VP he'll be golden.  McCain will neutralize the military service issue that Kerry will play up again, and also appeal to independents and Democrats.  McCain will also add some experience and age to the ticket.  

I've heard a lot of people mention Condi, I think she's headed back to academia.  Forget Rumsfeld, McCain, Hatch, Liz Dole, Lamar Alexander, they're too old school.  

I think this is the 2008 matchup:
GOP: Sununu/McCain
Dems: Kerry/Edwards or Clark

Remember you heard it here first:)

In a closer than expected election, Sununu becomes the youngest President since JFK.  This sets up a matchup against Hillary in 2012.  Sununu goes on to defeat Hillary soundly.      



 


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 15, 2004, 01:12:58 PM
GOPhound I'm not basing these predictions on a scenario where Kerry wins in 2004... I was responding to the original post that was based on the assumption that Kerry loses in 2004... However I STRONGLY disagree with the Bush landslide Reaganfan suggests...  

Your right about Santorum though he would defiantly be a possibility however I would predict that if both Frist and Pataki ran then he would not… having said that I think that where one of these two not to run then Santorum would proably run…

Now as I said I was assuming for my predictions that Kerry loses narrowly in 2004, however where Kerry to win I think the Republican field looking to challenge him would be somewhat different…

I think that Pataki might well still run, Frist I would bet would not, he can afford to wait to take on Kerry’s VP in 2012 but if Kerry looks weak then Frist might well throw his hat into the ring… Barbour was a bit of a joke really, I was looking for a solidly conservative southern governor with a bit of an ego and to me Barbour seemed about right (however please suggest a more plausable candidate) as with Frist I doubt “Barbour” would take on an incumbent… Liddy Dole I would imagine would not run against an incumbent President Kerry… however I think that Orrin Hatch might well…Santorum would not want to frit away time, money and credibility taking on a tough incumbent, but again where Kerry vulnerable he might consider running…

Where Kerry the incumbent in 2008 it all comes down to the reaction of the Republican base to a Democratic President with the very real possibility of Democrat gains in the Senate and the House…I doubt that the Dems would retake both the House and the Senate in 2004 in fact both will probably remain GOP but Republican majorities will be narrowed in all likelihood…this gridlock will mean that the likes of McCain and Snowe will become very important in getting legislation through… a new Democrat leader in the Senate such as Bill Nelson would be a good idea for this…so I doubt Kerry could do anything more than Clinton, but he will have a problem with the retiring Baby boomers and the massive strain this will put on social security and that could be exploited by a GOP challenger in 2008…However I doubt that there would be much “clear red water” between Kerry and his opponent in 2008 as even where the Democrats to win back the Senate and the House in 2006 Kerry would all probability would still have to govern as a moderate and so there would be little the GOP could take issue with him on that could appeal directly to Independent voters… So in 2008 I would expect a solidly conservative Republican to get the nomination defeating Pataki while Frist, Santorum and Dole sat the contest out and that November the GOP candidate is defeated by a firm margin…

That’s my two cents

PS; Even as a Dem Frist (despite his being fairly conservative) is the kinda guy I could vote for coz I trust him and he comes across as a decent guy to me… but in a face off between Kerry and Frist and if the senate and the house where close two I’d have to vote for JFK…  


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 15, 2004, 01:22:06 PM
Whoever wins in 2004, the economy will still be booming in 2008.  That's already 'baked into the cake'.  So if Bush wins, his successor will have a good economy to run on, and if Kerry wins, he'll almost certainly get re-elected.  Kerry would be held back from wrecking the boom by the Republican congress.   This incipient boom is one of the biggest reasons I think a Bush loss in 2004 would be disasterous.  If Kerry were re-elected in 2008 he would allow the tax cuts to expire, which would probably kill the good times.. but by then it would be too late.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 15, 2004, 01:51:56 PM
My 405-133 is as nice as I can think. President Bush has the good economy, sucessful war on terror, capture of Saddam, and the potential capture of UBL. If he drops Cheney, Frist, Santorum, or Giuliani would be fine. If anything a 238 to 300 margin for Bush.













Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 15, 2004, 02:22:36 PM
I’m afraid Reaganfan I just don’t see such a big win for Bush… The economy is hardly roaring back into life and jobs continue to fail to be created quickly enough, In Iraq it seems very questionable that a national government with its own capacity to defend its self will be in place in time to hand over control in the summer, Bush seems to have questions over his credibility and while the “AWOL” story is hardly very serious it would seem to further undermine Bush credibility as a war leader… The ballooning deficit is one hell of a problem and Bush’s spendthrift attitude to Government spending is very worrying while at the same time he introduces massive tax cuts that further inflate the Budget Deficit…

Now don’t get me wrong personally I see Bush as decent guy (would never vote for him) but don’t see anything duplicitous in his character… having said that I would argue that the public with the failure to finds WMDs, with the AWOL issue are beginning to see him not quite as straight  forward as they where lead to believe however this feeling seems directed more at the Administration than the President however the two are entwined to such as degree it may be difficult to separate them in voters minds.

Kerry as we see has problems but he seems to be able to aggressively campaign and rebut any Republican attacks on him…he has an excellent war record that will help personalise him for many voters while interestingly also shifting him away from his liberal record in the Senate…his problems are that record and his perceived “aloofness” however I cant see the old “liberal spendthrift” attack working this time a more sophisticated line of attack is needed and his aloofness seems to have been easily corrected as a drawback during the primary campaign…

In the end I see this race (barring any unforeseen scandal or upset) as higly competitive however a Bush win will be based on securing a few marginal states not sweeping entire regions… In many states which where close last time between Gore and Bush the “Nader factor” was very important (I strongly doubt a Nader showing even half as strong as last time seeing as how he is running (if he in fact runs) alone as an independent) In States such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Florida Nader effectively held the balance his supporters would have either boosted Gore into a solid win or as in the case of NH or FL won the states from Bush…. Bush efforts to win over Hispanics could lead NM into his column in November while in Iowa he would seem to have a good shot…Opinion polls and the 2000 results would suggest that Minnesota will go Dem, While the State government and Congressional delegation in WI is overwhelming Democratic at the same time NH showed in January that Dems and Independents are highly motivated, with the total turnout in NH coming close to what would have been required to win the state in 2000 based on how many voted then…

So finally a highly competitive race however they said that about Dukakis in 1988… but I did hear a statistic that stated that every incumbent President who has been re-elected has always lead in the polls throughout the year leading up to the election and Bush has not… but then again these arguments based on bast elections are generally bogus like “Republicans have to win Ohio” or “Democrats have to win five southern states and have a candidate from the south” are all bogus…

Well There you go… Any Thoughts?                                      


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 15, 2004, 03:16:09 PM
Picking Santorum, brings a huge counterweight to Bush and the republicans, a loss of secular America, making the country even more polarized.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: jravnsbo on February 15, 2004, 04:41:25 PM
Some thoughts:)

EC Map favors GOP.  Dems have to win all gore states and then pick up 7 EV to get to 2000 levels.

Next I think it will be close at this point, but you must also remember, Bush is playing defense now and hasn't even started to tap his war chest or actively campaign to a great extent.  Kerry is essentially still paying bills as he raises money.  yes not locked in by caps, but funds are still short, especially if he needs to spend some on expensive Mar 2 days.

Kerry is a liberal, Bush is a conservative, plaina nd simple.

So that said, Kerry's record in the senate and anti-war after his return home will not play at all int eh SOuth and Kerry has said essentially he will write it off.  So for Dems to win they have 2 strategies, win int he SW> NM, AZ, NV   or Midwest> picking up an Ohio or MO.  

Bush will be able to concentrate his funds primarily on OH, PA, the upper Midwest Gore states and the SW also.  This is a big advantage as Dems MUST hold PA, MN, IA, NM which Bush has already been making a huge play for.  

Plus economy is improving, not roaring yet, but improving.  Unemployment has gone from 6.2% int he fall down to 5.6% after 9/11, corporate scandals and cheap labor overseas.  If 100k plus jobs continue to be created Bush will look very good for the election.

Terrorism/For policy.  Bush is strong here.  We caught another one of Iraqi most wanted today (#41), up to 45/55.  Plus if we would catch OBL or other key leaders in afghan raid planned for spring, WMDs are found, or countries such as Libya, Iran and N Korea continue to move towards compliance this all looks good for Bush.  Plus if power is succesffully handed ove rin Iraq, all potential pluses.  There are potential downside effects but none are on the horizon.  Plus Kerry's weak record on defense will be amplified.  he has voted agianst 27 weapons systemt he military now sees as vital, he voted to cut CIA funding and wants to rely heavily ont he UN.

Cultural issues:  a definate Bush plus category.  Kerry is all over the place on gay marriage which is coming out of his home state, OUCH!  


Int he end i think Bush still wins, as Dems need the map to fall just right for them to win.


I’m afraid Reaganfan I just don’t see such a big win for Bush… The economy is hardly roaring back into life and jobs continue to fail to be created quickly enough, In Iraq it seems very questionable that a national government with its own capacity to defend its self will be in place in time to hand over control in the summer, Bush seems to have questions over his credibility and while the “AWOL” story is hardly very serious it would seem to further undermine Bush credibility as a war leader… The ballooning deficit is one hell of a problem and Bush’s spendthrift attitude to Government spending is very worrying while at the same time he introduces massive tax cuts that further inflate the Budget Deficit…

Now don’t get me wrong personally I see Bush as decent guy (would never vote for him) but don’t see anything duplicitous in his character… having said that I would argue that the public with the failure to finds WMDs, with the AWOL issue are beginning to see him not quite as straight  forward as they where lead to believe however this feeling seems directed more at the Administration than the President however the two are entwined to such as degree it may be difficult to separate them in voters minds.

Kerry as we see has problems but he seems to be able to aggressively campaign and rebut any Republican attacks on him…he has an excellent war record that will help personalise him for many voters while interestingly also shifting him away from his liberal record in the Senate…his problems are that record and his perceived “aloofness” however I cant see the old “liberal spendthrift” attack working this time a more sophisticated line of attack is needed and his aloofness seems to have been easily corrected as a drawback during the primary campaign…

In the end I see this race (barring any unforeseen scandal or upset) as higly competitive however a Bush win will be based on securing a few marginal states not sweeping entire regions… In many states which where close last time between Gore and Bush the “Nader factor” was very important (I strongly doubt a Nader showing even half as strong as last time seeing as how he is running (if he in fact runs) alone as an independent) In States such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Florida Nader effectively held the balance his supporters would have either boosted Gore into a solid win or as in the case of NH or FL won the states from Bush…. Bush efforts to win over Hispanics could lead NM into his column in November while in Iowa he would seem to have a good shot…Opinion polls and the 2000 results would suggest that Minnesota will go Dem, While the State government and Congressional delegation in WI is overwhelming Democratic at the same time NH showed in January that Dems and Independents are highly motivated, with the total turnout in NH coming close to what would have been required to win the state in 2000 based on how many voted then…

So finally a highly competitive race however they said that about Dukakis in 1988… but I did hear a statistic that stated that every incumbent President who has been re-elected has always lead in the polls throughout the year leading up to the election and Bush has not… but then again these arguments based on bast elections are generally bogus like “Republicans have to win Ohio” or “Democrats have to win five southern states and have a candidate from the south” are all bogus…

Well There you go… Any Thoughts?                                      



Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 15, 2004, 04:42:44 PM
Some thoughts:)

EC Map favors GOP.  Dems have to win all gore states and then pick up 7 EV to get to 2000 levels.

Next I think it will be close at this point, but you must also remember, Bush is playing defense now and hasn't even started to tap his war chest or actively campaign to a great extent.  Kerry is essentially still paying bills as he raises money.  yes not locked in by caps, but funds are still short, especially if he needs to spend some on expensive Mar 2 days.

Kerry is a liberal, Bush is a conservative, plaina nd simple.

So that said, Kerry's record in the senate and anti-war after his return home will not play at all int eh SOuth and Kerry has said essentially he will write it off.  So for Dems to win they have 2 strategies, win int he SW> NM, AZ, NV   or Midwest> picking up an Ohio or MO.  

Bush will be able to concentrate his funds primarily on OH, PA, the upper Midwest Gore states and the SW also.  This is a big advantage as Dems MUST hold PA, MN, IA, NM which Bush has already been making a huge play for.  

Plus economy is improving, not roaring yet, but improving.  Unemployment has gone from 6.2% int he fall down to 5.6% after 9/11, corporate scandals and cheap labor overseas.  If 100k plus jobs continue to be created Bush will look very good for the election.

Terrorism/For policy.  Bush is strong here.  We caught another one of Iraqi most wanted today (#41), up to 45/55.  Plus if we would catch OBL or other key leaders in afghan raid planned for spring, WMDs are found, or countries such as Libya, Iran and N Korea continue to move towards compliance this all looks good for Bush.  Plus if power is succesffully handed ove rin Iraq, all potential pluses.  There are potential downside effects but none are on the horizon.  Plus Kerry's weak record on defense will be amplified.  he has voted agianst 27 weapons systemt he military now sees as vital, he voted to cut CIA funding and wants to rely heavily ont he UN.

Cultural issues:  a definate Bush plus category.  Kerry is all over the place on gay marriage which is coming out of his home state, OUCH!  


Int he end i think Bush still wins, as Dems need the map to fall just right for them to win.


I’m afraid Reaganfan I just don’t see such a big win for Bush… The economy is hardly roaring back into life and jobs continue to fail to be created quickly enough, In Iraq it seems very questionable that a national government with its own capacity to defend its self will be in place in time to hand over control in the summer, Bush seems to have questions over his credibility and while the “AWOL” story is hardly very serious it would seem to further undermine Bush credibility as a war leader… The ballooning deficit is one hell of a problem and Bush’s spendthrift attitude to Government spending is very worrying while at the same time he introduces massive tax cuts that further inflate the Budget Deficit…

Now don’t get me wrong personally I see Bush as decent guy (would never vote for him) but don’t see anything duplicitous in his character… having said that I would argue that the public with the failure to finds WMDs, with the AWOL issue are beginning to see him not quite as straight  forward as they where lead to believe however this feeling seems directed more at the Administration than the President however the two are entwined to such as degree it may be difficult to separate them in voters minds.

Kerry as we see has problems but he seems to be able to aggressively campaign and rebut any Republican attacks on him…he has an excellent war record that will help personalise him for many voters while interestingly also shifting him away from his liberal record in the Senate…his problems are that record and his perceived “aloofness” however I cant see the old “liberal spendthrift” attack working this time a more sophisticated line of attack is needed and his aloofness seems to have been easily corrected as a drawback during the primary campaign…

In the end I see this race (barring any unforeseen scandal or upset) as higly competitive however a Bush win will be based on securing a few marginal states not sweeping entire regions… In many states which where close last time between Gore and Bush the “Nader factor” was very important (I strongly doubt a Nader showing even half as strong as last time seeing as how he is running (if he in fact runs) alone as an independent) In States such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Florida Nader effectively held the balance his supporters would have either boosted Gore into a solid win or as in the case of NH or FL won the states from Bush…. Bush efforts to win over Hispanics could lead NM into his column in November while in Iowa he would seem to have a good shot…Opinion polls and the 2000 results would suggest that Minnesota will go Dem, While the State government and Congressional delegation in WI is overwhelming Democratic at the same time NH showed in January that Dems and Independents are highly motivated, with the total turnout in NH coming close to what would have been required to win the state in 2000 based on how many voted then…

So finally a highly competitive race however they said that about Dukakis in 1988… but I did hear a statistic that stated that every incumbent President who has been re-elected has always lead in the polls throughout the year leading up to the election and Bush has not… but then again these arguments based on bast elections are generally bogus like “Republicans have to win Ohio” or “Democrats have to win five southern states and have a candidate from the south” are all bogus…

Well There you go… Any Thoughts?                                      


acctually, they have ot pick up 10 to win.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Michael Z on February 15, 2004, 07:15:42 PM
Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.

I might just be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but your tone suggests you seem to think that because of our political affiliation we don't know what the hell we're talking about. But I could be wrong, and I apologise if I am.

Anyway, Dole is a pretty good example of an "old school" candidate getting the nomination. Besides, age shouldn't be a stumbling block - look at Reagan.

Should Bush lose (which, realistically speaking, probably won't happen), the GOP, like any other mainstream political party, will look for the candidate they think is most likely to win; that does not automatically have to be a young candidate.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 15, 2004, 09:40:42 PM
If the republicans have a power struggle between 2 or more establishment candidates, a young hotshot will triumph. The question is which candidates will the party sponsor. Pataki, Giuliani, Frist, or Powell?


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: tractarian on February 16, 2004, 01:04:23 AM
2004:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney (R) - 48%, 268 EVs

The Dems keep PA, MI, NM, and pick up MO, AZ, NH and NV.  Bush keeps OH and FL and picks up MN and WI.  The race comes down to IA and its 7 EVs.  Kerry takes it - on the first recount - in the state where his candidacy first took flight.

2008:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 294 EVs
Bush/Dole (R) - 41%, 244 EVs
Ventura/Barkley (I) - 9%, 0 EVs

The Bush family makes it 2 consecutive losses.  After surviving a tough primary battle with Giuliani and Rumsfeld, Jeb holds the polling lead throughout the year.  A strong independent run by Jesse Ventura gathers steam in the fall and cuts into Bush's lead, especially in the northern Great Plains states.

On election night, everyone is shocked as President Kerry wins a second term, taking such previously solid-repub states as ND, SD and NE.

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: StevenNick on February 16, 2004, 02:55:18 AM
2004:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney (R) - 48%, 268 EVs

The Dems keep PA, MI, NM, and pick up MO, AZ, NH and NV.  Bush keeps OH and FL and picks up MN and WI.  The race comes down to IA and its 7 EVs.  Kerry takes it - on the first recount - in the state where his candidacy first took flight.

2008:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 294 EVs
Bush/Dole (R) - 41%, 244 EVs
Ventura/Barkley (I) - 9%, 0 EVs

The Bush family makes it 2 consecutive losses.  After surviving a tough primary battle with Giuliani and Rumsfeld, Jeb holds the polling lead throughout the year.  A strong independent run by Jesse Ventura gathers steam in the fall and cuts into Bush's lead, especially in the northern Great Plains states.

On election night, everyone is shocked as President Kerry wins a second term, taking such previously solid-repub states as ND, SD and NE.

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

I think not.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 16, 2004, 04:00:19 AM
A Kerry/ Gephardt ticket is firstly a terrible and idea and secondly very unlikely to occur…. Now on the face of it such a paring seems possible… However you are forgetting that both Gephardt and Kerry are the same age and have been criticized for their stiff speaking styles… Kerry needs a running mate who can help solidify blue collar and lower and middle income support for the Dem ticket while also softening Kerry’s edges… Gephardt could not win Missouri for Kerry and as Iowa showed he would not be a lock to help secure the Midwest…in many ways Gephardt’s political philosophy is very similar to old Midwestern left wingers such as Mondale and we know where nominating Mondale got us last time… Kerry has a number of far more effective and exciting alternatives for the VP slot on a Dem ticket…

Sn.John Edwards (D-NC)

Sn.Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

Fr,Sn.John Breaux (D-LA)

Fr,Gen.Wes Clark (D-AR)

Gov.Mark Warner (D-VA)

Sn.Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Sn.Bob Graham (D-FL)

Of those  I’d say the top three would be Edwards, Landrieu, Warner and then at 4 perhaps Bayh but the sad thing is that he is a very uninspiring speaker… but then again he is the only potential VP from the Midwest… having said that you do not have to come from a region to appeal to that region as I think that Edwards, Landrieu and Warner would have broad geographical support and this would greatly assist Kerry… While Gephardt as VP would be a disaster…


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 16, 2004, 04:51:09 AM
2004:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 270 EVs
Bush/Cheney (R) - 48%, 268 EVs

The Dems keep PA, MI, NM, and pick up MO, AZ, NH and NV.  Bush keeps OH and FL and picks up MN and WI.  The race comes down to IA and its 7 EVs.  Kerry takes it - on the first recount - in the state where his candidacy first took flight.

2008:

Kerry/Gephardt (D) - 50%, 294 EVs
Bush/Dole (R) - 41%, 244 EVs
Ventura/Barkley (I) - 9%, 0 EVs

The Bush family makes it 2 consecutive losses.  After surviving a tough primary battle with Giuliani and Rumsfeld, Jeb holds the polling lead throughout the year.  A strong independent run by Jesse Ventura gathers steam in the fall and cuts into Bush's lead, especially in the northern Great Plains states.

On election night, everyone is shocked as President Kerry wins a second term, taking such previously solid-repub states as ND, SD and NE.

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.  I'll admit your seemingly reasoned analysis had me a little worried till I saw you predict the Dakotas and Nebraska to go Democrat in 2008!  When pigs fly that part of the country will go Democrat.
Also Jeb would never be chosen if GW had lost in 04, plus no one will remember who Jesse Ventura is in 2008.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 16, 2004, 10:33:52 AM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:21:29 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.







The 2008 race, if Bush wins, starts this year after the election. I'm not just pushing a cliche. It will really and truly begin that moment.  

I predict Hillary will be the Minority Leader in the Senate if the GOP retains the Senate and Bush wins.

The GOP race will begin as soon as Bush's Cabinet is all set.  We'll know who is ascending and who isn't.  If Rice, for example, moves to Secretary of State, that will be a big sign that she wants more of a national presence, which would make her more agreeable to a Draft Condi movement (which is the way Condi would get into the race, not on her own).  

Donald Rumsfeld will not run in 2008. He won't even be in the Cabinet in 2005.

Bill Frist is an interesting commodity to me. I think he's like Kerry. Kerry needed Dean to fall on his face to end up with the nomination. He just has no charisma, but you know he'd be perfectly competent to run the country-- regardless of your ideology (I believe this of Kerry, by the way).

The three governors you name won't run for president, though Huckabee is an outstanding speaker, will be National Governors Association Chair in 2005, and would make a great presidential candidate if he could get down to 220-230.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 16, 2004, 01:35:35 PM
Your right about Frist… not particularly inspiring but a decent guy…who would make a good republican president…But where Bush to win in November and if by 2008 the Republicans still controlled Congress (unlikely but possible) then I’d still vote for the Dem candidate… At the moment though I’m still expecting a very close race this November…  


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:37:55 PM
Beware, biased prediction coming up. I hope you can all enjoy it though. :)

John Kerry and running mate John Edwards win the 2004 election by a 272-266 margin. Consequently Kerry is the incumbent for 2008 and goes unchallenged (in spite of rumours within some media circles, ie. Drudge and Limbaugh, of a "coup" to install Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.)

GWB's surprise 2004 defeat resulted in an ideological struggle within the Republican Party between moderates (helmed most noteably by John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani) and neocons (Santorum, Jeb Bush). Basically, the moderates believe that GWB lost the election because he was too right-wing and that only a more centre-right candidate could win an election, whereas the neocons believe quite the opposite - that GWB wasn't right-wing enough. This debate is reflected in the primaries, which reveal a deep divide within the GOP.

Rudolph Giuliani surprises many pundits by declaring that he will not run for President. Many believe this to be a ploy by the moderates to unite behind one candidate and not split their vote. That candidate is John McCain, who, just a few years earlier, many felt to be down and out due to ill health and a fading profile. However, his health problems thankfully behind him, McCain is the candidate many believe to be the most electable. His war record easily parallels Kerry's and his national stature is second to none.

Gov. Jeb Bush, after much dithering, eventually decides to throw his hat in the ring. At a rousing speech in St. Petersburg, FL, Jeb Bush declares his intention to run for President in front of his family, including father George, and of course brother George W. Rick Santorum, who some on the fringe of the GOP believed to have a shot at the nomination, decides not to split the neocon vote and instead endorse Jeb Bush. In fact, most of the endorsements reveal a split within the party - but obviously everybody involved denies such a thing. In the uselectionatlas.org forum, prominent user Jmfcst castigates cheeky British chappie Michael Z for even daring to suggest such a thing.

Other Republicans who feel they have a legitimate shot at challenging Kerry include Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole, Lincoln Chaffee, Roy LaHood, and Jim Talent. However, as the primary season goes underway most of these candidates fall to the wayside and eventually drop out of the race, leaving voters with a clear choice between McCain and Jeb Bush, with many fearing a repeat of the 2000 primaries, which were dogged by fiercely negative campaigning between McCain and George W Bush. Thankfully these fears prove to be unfounded and the race is mainly a clean one.

In what turns out to be the most suspense-filled Republican primaries since 1976, McCain eventually wins... but only by a whisker.

And so the inevitable media speculation starts; who will be his running mate? Attention veers from Alexander to Hagel, E. Dole, Talent, Frist, Perry, and Don Rumsfeld(!). The favourite, however, turns out to be Rudolph Giuliani, who threw all his weight behind McCain during the primaries. Then McCain surprises everyone and chooses Bill Frist, a move no doubt designed to bridge the much-documented gap between moderates and not-so-moderates. Giuliani, word has it, will be rewarded for his loyalty in other ways, with a prominent role within a potential McCain Administration.

A brief scare is endured by Democrats when Howard Dean hints at running as the Green Party candidate. That fear, however, is eventually allayed when Jello Biafra is chosen instead (the Green Party's official line being that the ex-Dead Kennedys singer is a "more electable" candidate than Dean).

In November 2008, McCain/Frist take on Kerry/Edwards. Kerry narrowly wins. However, a second Kerry term is dogged by crisis for reasons of something-or-other (this is where my psychic future-telling abilities fail me), and so in 2012 Hagel/Perry beat Edwards/Ford.

Choosing a Kerry win makes things more complicated. Who knows what will happen that Kerry will get credit for. Some in the know believe bin Laden's capture is less than a year away. If it happens shortly thereafter-- like next April/May-- then Kerry may get the credit for it. That would change everything.  It's much better to put everyone on the same playing field in an open race.  McCain/Frist would be a fine fusion ticket, though.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:39:31 PM

Republican Ticket: Bill Frist/ Lamar Alexander


You already know this can't happen, but Alexander would make an excellent VP for a conservative or moderate presidential candidate.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:43:19 PM
I'll do a Bush win first, then akerry win.

Bush/Cheney win 2004 election.

In the Democratic Primaries, the main contenders are Howard Dean (Groan), John Edwards, Mark Warner, Hilary Clinton and Bill Richardson. Others include Sharpton, Feingold and Lieberman.

Over the process, two candidates merge with roughly equal votes at the convention, each with roughly 30% of the delegates. They are Warner and Richardson. Clinton has about 20%, Edwards 10% and the rest split between Dean and Sharpton, with Feingold and Lieberman ending up with basically zilch.

Clinton and Edwards endorse Warner, and Dean and Sharpton endorse Richardson. The final ticket is determined as Warner/Edwards.

The Republican primary has only three real contenders; Frist, Nussle and McCain.

Nussle easily wins his home state of Iowa, but his campaign stalls, and after the first super tuesday, he drops out, endorsing Frist.

McCain shoots ahead after winning CA and NY, to get the nomination. He selects Peter Fitzgerald as his running mate.

McCain/Fitzgerald and Waner/Edwards creates a very odd election. With the Democrats having two southerners, and the GOP having a western and mid-westerner, all previous election results are thrown out the window. In the end, McCain/Fitzgerald win, with a margin of 282-256. (I used 2004 EVs).

()

Fitzgerald has been forgotten since he was elected in 1998. He'll be even more forgotten by 2008.  I'd say McCain would pick a former governor as VP.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:44:58 PM
Here is my 2004 and 2008 presidential election forecast as well as the 2006 mid-term elections

2004:

 Democrats:
     Sen. John Kerry P
     Gen. Wesley Clark VP

 Republicans:
     Pres. George W. Bush P
     V Pres. Richard Cheney VP

 Electoral Votes:   Rep. 280 -- Dem. 264

  California Goes for Bush
 
  GOP retain control of House and Senate

2006 Mid-Term:

  Dems regain control of Senate.  GOP retain control of the House.

2008:
 
  Democrats:
      Pres. Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D-GA)
      V Pres. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)

  Republicans:
      Pres. Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID)
      V Pres. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)

  Electoral Votes:  Dem. 247   Rep. 304

2012 Preview:

   Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) beats Fmr. Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK)

There is no way a guy who lost as badly as Barnes will make a triumphant comeback as the 2008 Dem nominee.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:47:48 PM
I can't imagine Gov. Barbour running for president
But I suppose 4 years can make a lot of difference

No way on Barbour.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 16, 2004, 01:47:58 PM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:50:23 PM
Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.  After four years of Kerry (yes regrettably I think he's going to win), the GOP is going to be fired up in '08 and ready to win at all costs, just like the Dems are this year.

The party will be looking forward, not backwards.  I think these will be some of the names:

Frist - completely boring, lacks charisma and passion. A disaster in the making.

Pataki - Similar to Frist, though brings a little more excitement.  Not good enough for President, possible VP.

Giuliani - Too liberal to get the nomination.  Too much of a 'big' personality to be VP and play second fiddle.

Santorum - excellent all around.  Telegenic, articulate,  passionate, from a key state.  Will have a problem with the media though on social issues.  I think there's a good chance he wins the nomination and presidency if he runs.

Sununu Jr. - Same as Santorum above, but with a less intense, more appealing personality.  Would obviously kick butt in NH, which as we saw this year is crucial.  I can't think of anyone better right now, he'd be my pick.  He's only 39 right now, will be 43 by the election.  Like Clinton in '92, will be a big contrast to then 64 year old Kerry.

If Sununu can get McCain to be his VP he'll be golden.  McCain will neutralize the military service issue that Kerry will play up again, and also appeal to independents and Democrats.  McCain will also add some experience and age to the ticket.  

I've heard a lot of people mention Condi, I think she's headed back to academia.  Forget Rumsfeld, McCain, Hatch, Liz Dole, Lamar Alexander, they're too old school.  

I think this is the 2008 matchup:
GOP: Sununu/McCain
Dems: Kerry/Edwards or Clark

Remember you heard it here first:)

In a closer than expected election, Sununu becomes the youngest President since JFK.  This sets up a matchup against Hillary in 2012.  Sununu goes on to defeat Hillary soundly.      



 

I like John plenty, but he'll serve as governor first, before running for the WH.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:52:51 PM
Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.

I might just be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but your tone suggests you seem to think that because of our political affiliation we don't know what the hell we're talking about. But I could be wrong, and I apologise if I am.

Anyway, Dole is a pretty good example of an "old school" candidate getting the nomination. Besides, age shouldn't be a stumbling block - look at Reagan.

Should Bush lose (which, realistically speaking, probably won't happen), the GOP, like any other mainstream political party, will look for the candidate they think is most likely to win; that does not automatically have to be a young candidate.

I think he just thinks that fresher faces (like Edwards and Clark this year) is the way to go.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on February 16, 2004, 01:54:40 PM

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 01:55:15 PM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

No, if Bush holds on it will be because of all that campaign cash and because we grab Mullah Omar and OBL.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on February 16, 2004, 01:58:04 PM

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


One more Dem I forgot:
O'Malley (MD)...then in the middle of his second term as Gov!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: jravnsbo on February 16, 2004, 02:10:41 PM
2012 I agree is way to far downt he road.

Herseth-sorry we are going to send her to her second loss in June and 3rd in Nov, she'll be done! :)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 16, 2004, 02:27:37 PM
Bushalva had a strange prediction....the Dems won't nominate barnes when they have big names like Hillary, Gore, and Edwards on the table.

yeah, especially the fact that his EV count goes from 544 to 551... ;)


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 02:57:45 PM

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40






Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 02:59:40 PM

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


And for 2020? Adam Putnam.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 03:00:48 PM
You do realize that if Edwards is not Kerry's VP pick he will not have much of a storyline for 2008. He will be a retired one term senator and an already failed presidential candidate. He will have to campaign like Reagan did in 80' for years before the race.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 16, 2004, 03:14:44 PM

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


And for 2020? Adam Putnam.

Lol...any guesses on 2040? Or 2060? Or why not 3004, wjile we're at it... :p

This is getting out of hand...


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: nclib on February 16, 2004, 03:37:52 PM
OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I know Wilson, Kingston, Hart, and Rogers are in the U.S. House, (though I think there are two Mike Rogers's in Congress) and Pryor is an Alabama Attorney General, Blunt a Missouri Sec. of State who is running for Governor, Blackwell an Ohio Sec. of State, Sandoval a Nevada Attorney General, but who are the rest?


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 16, 2004, 03:49:03 PM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: elcorazon on February 16, 2004, 04:01:34 PM
One name to watch for in 2012 is Barak OBama who is going to be elected to serve as a democrat this November in the Senate, filling Peter Fitzgerald's seat here in Illinois.  I could see him running for the top spot then if there is no democratic incumbent running.

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 04:27:30 PM

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

Because his re-election prospects were 50-50 at best and he wants to be president now or later and a loss in a re-election bid would end that dream.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 04:28:58 PM

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.


And for 2020? Adam Putnam.

Lol...any guesses on 2040? Or 2060? Or why not 3004, wjile we're at it... :p

This is getting out of hand...

Well, my daughter will be president in 2052.


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 04:45:14 PM
OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I know Wilson, Kingston, Hart, and Rogers are in the U.S. House, (though I think there are two Mike Rogers's in Congress) and Pryor is an Alabama Attorney General, Blunt a Missouri Sec. of State who is running for Governor, Blackwell an Ohio Sec. of State, Sandoval a Nevada Attorney General, but who are the rest?

Yes, I meant the Mike Rogers from Michigan. Click the names to go to their pages.

Jon Bruning, 43 (http://www.ago.state.ne.us/)
Lawrence Wasden, 55 (http://www2.state.id.us/ag/)
Mike Cox, 51 (http://www.michigan.gov/ag/)
Phill Kline, 53 (http://www.accesskansas.org/ksag/)
Todd Rokita, 43 (http://www.in.gov/sos/)
Trey Grayson, 40 (http://www.sos.state.ky.us/YOUTHPAGE/main/sosbio.asp)

I tried to pick young politicians who were good looking and in positions that would make advancement very possible.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 16, 2004, 04:54:24 PM
Katherine Harris... SHE SAID SHE WILL RUN FOR SENATE, BUT NOT THIS YEAR.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 04:55:41 PM
NHPolitico, I'm from Bedford where are you from?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 16, 2004, 05:15:24 PM
We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?





Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 05:21:14 PM
NHPolitico, I'm from Bedford where are you from?

Upper Valley.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 05:23:11 PM
I've never heard of Upper Valley, where is that?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 05:24:18 PM
We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?





What do you mean "We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations"?  Can you elaborate on that sentence? I say Huckabee beats Byrd, Carper beats Harris, Perry beats Bredesen.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 05:24:57 PM
I've never heard of Upper Valley, where is that?

Dartmouth/Lake Sunapee region


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 05:27:16 PM
We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?


I don't know the last set, but Byrd is too old to get the nomination. I met Tom Carper at a restaurant (Wolf Blitzer was there as well) where he was campaigning for Lieberman, and he seemed like a nice guy, but being from Delaware, and being a typical aging senator just doesn't cut it, but if he did get the nomination he'd beat Harris, unless America evolved into a mental asylum.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 16, 2004, 06:18:42 PM
We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?
Presidents Huckabee, Carper, and Bredesen.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 07:03:27 PM
if he did get the nomination he'd beat Harris, unless America evolved into a mental asylum.

Harris winning isn't the equivalent of Sharpton or Kucinich winning.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 07:20:19 PM
She couldn't become the establishment pick though, hence no nomination for her.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 16, 2004, 07:57:17 PM
She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 16, 2004, 08:26:22 PM
Assuming she has some opposition she won't win NH or Iowa. I can't imagine her giving a stump speech.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 16, 2004, 08:27:54 PM
She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

attractive?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Nation on February 16, 2004, 08:39:29 PM
She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?



1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.

()

2) She's a member of congress


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 16, 2004, 09:12:06 PM
yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 16, 2004, 09:46:15 PM
yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

They're both pikers compared to Cindy McCain.

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 16, 2004, 09:47:03 PM
Ick


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Saratoga2DM on February 16, 2004, 10:44:03 PM
Hey all:

Kathernine Harris would never get nominated by the GOP in a national election because of her questionable,  unethical, and heinous involvement in the 2000 election.  She has been accused by civil rights groups of disenfranchising minority voters, committing election fraud, and abusing her powers as Florida Secretary of state for her own self-interests.  

While all this was happening she still retained her sympathies for George W. Bush, rather than doing her job as a neutral interpreter of Florida Laws.

This is unrelated but, how much makeup does she have to wear in order to cover her face??  

Sleep tight all.


 


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: TheWildCard on February 17, 2004, 12:47:38 AM

She doesn't look like a rat.

Anyway I believe she said something like she plans on running for senate just not this year so probably won't run for awhile


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 17, 2004, 05:36:18 AM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?

I don't think I overestimate the conservatism of Republican voters in the Southwest - they're very conservative.  Its possible I'm out of date in assuming the're still a definitely majority of the voters, as the've been for so many years.  We'll see if all these new people swamp them.
Neither Kerry nor Edwards would win Arizona, Nevada, or Colorado, but because I think NM will be so close, I would shift it to Bush against Kerry, and to Edwards over Bush.  Other than that the only thing Edwards gains over Kerry is West Virginia - very likely, and Iowa, possibly.  Three states, and he'd still lose.   And not get a single Southern state unless you count WV as southern.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 17, 2004, 06:41:51 AM
 On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 12:37:10 PM
On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

With a voter turnout of, say, 40% or so, it won't matter that much, I'm afraid. :(


Title: Re:My 2004/08/12 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 12:39:19 PM
The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.
Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

I'm not so much overestimating Bush's support as assuming a high degree (at least 47.9%) of Republican support.  Its somewhat incidental that Bush is such a likable guy - the base of support is not about liking Bush, its about favoring the GOP and disfavouring the Democrats.  I think you're underestimating the numbers of people who find left-wingers like Kerry repugnant.  Certainly this applies in places like MO and AZ.

Edwards seems stronger than Kerry, but he has his weaknesses as well - trial lawyer (which most Americans realize are the scum of the earth), who is also rather ill-informed and shallow.  Amoral like Clinton, but lacking his intelligence.  I think Bush would defeat Edwards but it would be closer.    Bush/Kerry 290/248 compared with Bush/Edwards 273/265.  

Btw, what 'slime' are you talking about?

I do think you overestimate the level of conservatism in the South-West, Bush only got around 50-51% in AZ, CO and NV.

What state(s) would Edwards get that Kerry wouldn't, I'm just curious?

I don't think I overestimate the conservatism of Republican voters in the Southwest - they're very conservative.  Its possible I'm out of date in assuming the're still a definitely majority of the voters, as the've been for so many years.  We'll see if all these new people swamp them.
Neither Kerry nor Edwards would win Arizona, Nevada, or Colorado, but because I think NM will be so close, I would shift it to Bush against Kerry, and to Edwards over Bush.  Other than that the only thing Edwards gains over Kerry is West Virginia - very likely, and Iowa, possibly.  Three states, and he'd still lose.   And not get a single Southern state unless you count WV as southern.

I never talked about the level of conservatism among Republicans, but among the population as a whole...and I'm basing it on the numbers from the 2000 election.

I'm not sure if Edwards would do better than Kerry in the south-west and mid-west, but he would have made a stronger candidate imo, so you might be right, I guess.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 12th Doctor on February 17, 2004, 12:44:06 PM
She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?



1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.

()

2) She's a member of congress

That photo is doctored by the way.  Harris even said that she deon't own blue eye shaddow.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 17, 2004, 01:04:16 PM
On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

Scary stuff.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 01:06:19 PM
She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?



1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.

()

2) She's a member of congress

That photo is doctored by the way.  Harris even said that she deon't own blue eye shaddow.

This one's real...

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 01:06:48 PM
On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

Scary stuff.


Que?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 01:10:31 PM
That's even worse...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Nation on February 17, 2004, 01:49:48 PM
You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: opebo on February 17, 2004, 02:14:22 PM
You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

Very ungallant posting.  Why not make fun of the appearance of Republican male candidates?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 02:20:45 PM
You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

Very ungallant posting.  Why not make fun of the appearance of Republican male candidates?


B/c we're much more vulnerable for counter-attacks there....*KERRY* ;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 04:17:29 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: zachman on February 17, 2004, 04:27:08 PM
That would be a great ticket, but I'm not sure if McCain would give it another shot.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 04:39:01 PM
That would be a great ticket, but I'm not sure if McCain would give it another shot.

They look so great together. That should be reason enough!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: YRABNNRM on February 17, 2004, 04:42:50 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()

I love it!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 04:44:55 PM
yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

Here's a better pic of Cindy.

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 04:47:22 PM
I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 04:51:47 PM
I would take Jennifer Granholm over her anyday.

Yep, you're right. :)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 04:52:49 PM
Whoever NHPOlitico just posted isn't really that attractive.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 04:53:28 PM
Whoever NHPOlitico just posted isn't really that attractive.

No, not really. :)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 04:57:15 PM
()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: YRABNNRM on February 17, 2004, 04:57:52 PM
Im not really a fan of any of them.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 04:59:44 PM
Who, in the political world, are you a fan of, then?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 17, 2004, 05:01:28 PM
Rice, Powell, Giuliani, or McCain could win in a heartbeat. Name reconization, you name it. Even against Hillary who is NOT attractive!!!!!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:02:28 PM
Rice, Powell, Giuliani, or McCain could win in a heartbeat. Name reconization, you name it. Even against Hillary who is NOT attractive!!!!!
No, she is not by any stretch of the imagination.

Lisa Murkowski is okay...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 05:31:13 PM
Rice, Powell, Giuliani, or McCain could win in a heartbeat. Name reconization, you name it. Even against Hillary who is NOT attractive!!!!!
No, she is not by any stretch of the imagination.

Lisa Murkowski is okay...

OK, so I wouldn't kick Jennifer Granholm out of the bed.

Lisa Murkowski? Blanche Lincoln is prettier.

()

vs.

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:32:33 PM
Mirkowski is better than Lincoln.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 05:33:23 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:34:05 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?
The one on the top is Murkowski.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 17, 2004, 05:37:54 PM
Deocratic Senator Maria Cantwell from Washington.... wow, she is attractive. Why can't SHE BE a Republican LOL


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Saratoga2DM on February 17, 2004, 05:38:15 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()


Good picture but one question, where is Condi Rice from?
Usually when parties select candidates, they try to strike a geographical balance.  For example, If a southern candidate is running for president, then you will want a northerner as the vice presidential candidate and vice versa.  But I know there have been exceptions.  (e.g. Clinton/Gore '92, '96)





Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:40:10 PM
Deocratic Senator Maria Cantwell from Washington.... wow, she is attractive. Why can't SHE BE a Republican LOL
Not really.

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 05:40:12 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?
The one on the top is Murkowski.

Then Lincoln is better, though she seems younger.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:42:21 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?
The one on the top is Murkowski.

Then Lincoln is better, though she seems younger.
But Lincoln's hair is like a rag.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 17, 2004, 05:42:47 PM
Rice i seem to remember is a resident of California...however i believe she grew up in the south... from what i have read and heard here family where a moderatly comfortable black family (no mean feat in the south in those days) which ran a store serving the local black population in their area... Her home state would go down as CA...however if she was ever on a ticket (which i doubt) she would bring next to no geographical advantage to it...    


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: dunn on February 17, 2004, 05:43:23 PM
alabama

but she left to college and never came back....


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 05:46:36 PM
Deocratic Senator Maria Cantwell from Washington.... wow, she is attractive. Why can't SHE BE a Republican LOL
Not really.

()

She's OK.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 17, 2004, 05:46:57 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?
The one on the top is Murkowski.

Then Lincoln is better, though she seems younger.
But Lincoln's hair is like a rag.

Who cares about the hair... ;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 17, 2004, 05:47:17 PM
Which one is Murkowski and which is Lincoln?
The one on the top is Murkowski.

Then Lincoln is better, though she seems younger.
But Lincoln's hair is like a rag.

Who cares about the hair... ;)
Oh god...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 17, 2004, 05:58:18 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()


Good picture but one question, where is Condi Rice from?
Usually when parties select candidates, they try to strike a geographical balance.  For example, If a southern candidate is running for president, then you will want a northerner as the vice presidential candidate and vice versa.  But I know there have been exceptions.  (e.g. Clinton/Gore '92, '96)





Rice is from Alabama


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: dunn on February 17, 2004, 05:59:07 PM
that's what i said:)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 17, 2004, 06:04:12 PM
In 2008, if Rice is on the ticket... that WILL be electric.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: YRABNNRM on February 17, 2004, 06:59:35 PM
Who, in the political world, are you a fan of, then?

I dont find politicians attractive from what Ive seen. Im sure theres some out there, I just havent seen her ;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Nation on February 17, 2004, 07:04:27 PM
You guys are right, not a rat. More like a hag trying to look 25 instead of 43.


Even without the eyeshadow, it's still bad.


But the main point of the discussion, she will never become a candidate for President, and I highly doubt she'd win in the Senate.

Very ungallant posting.  Why not make fun of the appearance of Republican male candidates?


I could do that too if you'd like :) .  Throw in some ugly Democrats and Independents.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 08:36:23 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()


Good picture but one question, where is Condi Rice from?
Usually when parties select candidates, they try to strike a geographical balance.  For example, If a southern candidate is running for president, then you will want a northerner as the vice presidential candidate and vice versa.  But I know there have been exceptions.  (e.g. Clinton/Gore '92, '96)





Condi gets you Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, and California!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: YRABNNRM on February 17, 2004, 10:07:55 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()

Mind if I put that in my signature?


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 17, 2004, 10:09:21 PM
Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

()

Mind if I put that in my signature?

Go ahead. I take it as a compliment.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Saratoga2DM on February 18, 2004, 12:36:28 AM
Thanks for your answers, all.



Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: M on February 18, 2004, 12:43:39 AM
Bush wins reelection against Kerry by a decent, though not overwhelming majority. Let's say he just bests 300 EVs. Condi becomes SoS. Dems make gains in 'o6 congressional elections. But do not seize either house. In '08, Rudi wins spirited campaign against unknown conservative in primary. Picks Rice as VP. Clinton shock's everyone by losing the primary to a more moderate (a liberal and the very centrist Bayh also ran. Bayh becomes VP). Rudy wins by a decent margin in the fall. He loses in 2012 to I-couldn't-possibly-guess-who over sex.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 18, 2004, 08:26:59 AM
Nice, sex.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 03:44:23 PM

What? :)



Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 04:57:46 PM
I thought you were trying to say something.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 05:00:42 PM
I thought you were trying to say something.

Saying what?

I am not that interested in hair, that's all... ;)



Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 05:01:10 PM
I thought you were trying to say something.

Saying what?

I am not that interested in hair, that's all... ;)


Never mind. :)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 05:02:26 PM
I thought you were trying to say something.

Saying what?

I am not that interested in hair, that's all... ;)


Never mind. :)

OK...but I'm still curious...I wasn't making some kind of suggestion about, shall we say, otehr physical features of the politician in question, if that's what you thought... ;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 05:03:06 PM
I don't want to talk about it...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 05:03:49 PM

OK...


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 05:05:02 PM
Haha...you're still curious!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 05:07:27 PM

No.............

;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 05:09:23 PM
Maybe I'll tell you another day.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Gustaf on February 18, 2004, 05:12:08 PM

OK.......

;)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 18, 2004, 09:09:11 PM
How does this sound?
2008: Rudy/Rice beat Clinton/Bayh


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 18, 2004, 09:51:57 PM
How does this sound?
2008: Rudy/Rice beat Clinton/Bayh
How about this: Rudy (with my vote) defeats Hillary for the US senate in 2006?  No Hillary for President!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 19, 2004, 10:34:27 AM
You know, it is sick. She ran for New York, where she never lived, just to try to get to the top. I fHillary loses in 2006, she'll still run as Former Senator Hillary Clinton.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: © tweed on February 19, 2004, 10:42:24 AM
You know, it is sick. She ran for New York, where she never lived, just to try to get to the top. I fHillary loses in 2006, she'll still run as Former Senator Hillary Clinton.
c
But she wouldn't win the nomination.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 23, 2004, 08:04:59 PM

I'll amend what I said. I just saw him on TV and I think he's probably plenty skinny. His diet is working out great for him.

He sort of looks like his old skinny self, if not skinnier.

()
(Old Self)


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: StevenNick on February 23, 2004, 10:19:35 PM
Deocratic Senator Maria Cantwell from Washington.... wow, she is attractive. Why can't SHE BE a Republican LOL

Well, she would be attractive if she weren't so EVIL!!!!!!


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: NHPolitico on February 24, 2004, 07:08:03 AM
Mike Huckabee New Self (last night)...

()


In-between self...

()


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Reaganfan on February 25, 2004, 03:48:30 PM
I like Bill Owens better though.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Ben. on February 25, 2004, 06:42:52 PM

 I'm with you there Reaganfan Owens where Bush to win in Nov or alternatively where Bush to lose and if Kerry where not be a lock in 2008 and then again in 2012 if Kerry was too strong in 2008 would be a very strong GOP candidate... In my view its good news for the dems that Bush isn’t replacing Cheney with him this time around...well as surprise could still happen... but I’m hoping and betting not…    


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 2952-0-0 on December 14, 2006, 07:27:08 PM
Gravedigging is fun.


Title: Re:My 2008 prediction....
Post by: SPC on December 15, 2006, 07:27:47 PM
If Bush wins:

Democratic Ticket: Hillary Clinton/Evan Bayh
Republican Ticket: Bill Frist/ Lamar Alexander

Turnout is record low, and Frist wins by a hair.  everybody hates both candidates.

If Bush loses:

Democratic Ticket: John Kerry/John Edwards
Republican Ticket: Jeb Bush/Condi Rice

Kerry wins re-election.

2012 (if Kerry wins two terms):

Democratic Ticket: John Edwards/Erksine Bowles (Who gives a crap if they're from the same state)
Republican Ticket: Lamar Alexander/George P. Bush

Alexander wins.


Why would frist choose a running mate from his own state? The Constitution would prevent them from winning TN!


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Nym90 on February 17, 2008, 04:46:07 PM
One name to watch for in 2012 is Barak OBama who is going to be elected to serve as a democrat this November in the Senate, filling Peter Fitzgerald's seat here in Illinois.  I could see him running for the top spot then if there is no democratic incumbent running.

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

Bumping this as per the search function, this was the very first mention of Barack Obama by anyone on the forum.


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: YRABNNRM on August 04, 2008, 11:48:09 PM
Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.








GREAT PREDICTION! MORE PLEASE!


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Person Man on August 04, 2008, 11:50:57 PM
Man, that's just bad.


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: 2952-0-0 on November 05, 2008, 11:08:49 PM
And I'm doing it again.


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: ?????????? on November 05, 2008, 11:38:31 PM

Dude that was 2004! Give it a rest for Christs sake.


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Matt Damon™ on January 20, 2009, 01:22:47 PM
One name to watch for in 2012 is Barak OBama who is going to be elected to serve as a democrat this November in the Senate, filling Peter Fitzgerald's seat here in Illinois.  I could see him running for the top spot then if there is no democratic incumbent running.

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

hahaha oh wow


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Lunar on January 20, 2009, 02:08:01 PM
It seems odd that a Senator from New York City would select an 84-year old Senator from Northern New Jersey to be her VP.  What's she trying to do, scare the world?


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Verily on January 20, 2009, 03:54:49 PM
It seems odd that a Senator from New York City would select an 84-year old Senator from Northern New Jersey to be her VP.  What's she trying to do, scare the world?


Technically, she's from Westchester County while he's from New York City (in terms of where they currently reside).


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Lunar on January 20, 2009, 04:08:01 PM
Oh I forgot she doesn't live with Bill in Harlem haha


Title: Re: My 2008 prediction....
Post by: Mr. Morden on January 20, 2009, 11:10:42 PM
Whoever wins in 2004, the economy will still be booming in 2008.  That's already 'baked into the cake'.  So if Bush wins, his successor will have a good economy to run on, and if Kerry wins, he'll almost certainly get re-elected.  Kerry would be held back from wrecking the boom by the Republican congress.   This incipient boom is one of the biggest reasons I think a Bush loss in 2004 would be disasterous.  If Kerry were re-elected in 2008 he would allow the tax cuts to expire, which would probably kill the good times.. but by then it would be too late.

Lol.