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Title: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 17, 2008, 11:03:51 PM New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Zogby on 2008-04-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080417023)
Summary:
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1483) Pennsylvania 4-16/17 4-15/16 Clinton 47% 45% Obama 43% 44% Someone else 2% 3% Not sure 8% 9% Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Alcon on April 18, 2008, 12:19:53 AM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier
Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2008, 02:24:12 AM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. I say bad 1st sample. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Eraserhead on April 18, 2008, 03:06:50 AM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. I wouldn't bother reading much of anything into movement like that anyway. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2008, 03:12:53 AM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. I wouldn't bother reading much of anything into movement like that anyway. True - the movement isn't significant, scientifically significant, since it falls w/in the MoE. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Alcon on April 18, 2008, 10:18:48 AM I woke up last night at about 4 AM and realized that I'm an idiot for attributing this to a "debate bump." Carry on.
Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on April 18, 2008, 11:49:19 AM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Alcon on April 18, 2008, 01:00:44 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. No, there was a statistically insignificant change. Different things. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2008, 02:43:18 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. I already said that. :P Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: elcorazon on April 18, 2008, 02:56:13 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. I already said that. :P Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2008, 03:04:33 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. I already said that. :P No - it's within the MoE. Statsitically, there wasn't a change. You never took a statistics class did you? Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Alcon on April 18, 2008, 03:39:58 PM Statistically, there was a change. It was statistically insignificant. It did not meet statistical criterea to be a change at 95% confidence. That does not mean that there was no change. A shift of a few points is a change.
I haven't taken a stats class but I'm reasonably sure that's true. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Eraserhead on April 18, 2008, 03:43:55 PM This thread might be headed toward the goldmine before long.
Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Alcon on April 18, 2008, 03:48:44 PM 940 HEADS AND 60 TAILS!!! >:(
Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: elcorazon on April 18, 2008, 03:58:26 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. I already said that. :P No - it's within the MoE. Statsitically, there wasn't a change. You never took a statistics class did you? A later poll showing the lead to be 54-46 IS a change. Do we know FOR SURE that the voters changed? no But we do know that is MUCH more likely that the lead grew than that it slipped (although that is POSSIBLE). semantics it seems, but still it's a pet peeve of mine when commentators call races statistically tied, or say that the polls show NO CHANGE. anyway, that's all I got on the subject right now. Title: Re: PA PrimD: Zogby: Clinton's PA Lead Back Up to 4% Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on April 18, 2008, 10:01:34 PM Last poll less than 24 hours earlier Clinton 47% (+2) Obama 43% (-1) I would try to read into this as being maybe a minor Clinton debate bump, but...Zogby. It's also within the MoE meaning statistically there was no change. I already said that. :P No - it's within the MoE. Statsitically, there wasn't a change. You never took a statistics class did you? A later poll showing the lead to be 54-46 IS a change. Do we know FOR SURE that the voters changed? no But we do know that is MUCH more likely that the lead grew than that it slipped (although that is POSSIBLE). semantics it seems, but still it's a pet peeve of mine when commentators call races statistically tied, or say that the polls show NO CHANGE. anyway, that's all I got on the subject right now. You're right - in my original post, I said the change was insignificant. BRTD said there was not change, and I said that I had said the same thing, thinking that he had said there was no significant change. So, you and Alcon are right, and that's what I said in my first post. |