Talk Elections

Bush 43% Kerry 44% Nader 3% Undecided 10%

Bush 44% Kerry 45% Undecided 9%

Bush's approval rating is at 51%.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,130234,00.html

Hmmm...this poll seems right on the money....

That other at 9% seems high, but otherwise it's right where we all said it would be. Tight as it could be.

Again, Bush improves his ratings and numbers outside the head-to-head match-up. And actually I have to say that the head-to-head is a nice improvement over the last OD poll.

A sign that they were not pushing the undecided voters to choose?

That 9% should be other AND not sure......sorry.

Most of the poll looks to be good news for Bush. The battleground shows Kerry up 11, but their battleground numbers seem to jump around a lot, small number in them I assume, large MOE. I got a good laugh out of question in the pdf of the poll, the one that asks about the olympic sports. lol.

Probably. That would be my guess, but my guess is as good as anyone else's.

OD does not push leaners heavily.  It is a key part of their  polling philosophy.

How do polling companies "push" those polled?

Overall, in most of the polls I've seen in the last week, Bush is looking better and better. It's still tight, but rolling nicely into the RNC. If he has a nice convention, he could come out sitting pretty.

Anyone who says they are undecided they then ask "Are you leaning more toward Bush or more toward Kerry?"

This tends to be very soft support for a candiadate which is why OD prefers not to push.  This is partly why Kerry has underperformed a bit in the FOX/OD poll.  His support tends to be softer in poll after poll.

They subject those who answer undecided to a follow-up question leaning on them to select a candidate.  

They're like salesmen who don't take the first "no" as real.

Many respondents get fed up with this, and simply discontinue the poll (non-completes), and their imput is not included.

Thats what I was suspecting but wasnt sure. Zogby interactive poll does that as well. They push the respondents.

August 26th - Rasmussen - Bush +1 LVs
August 25th - Gallup - Bush +3 LVs
August 24th - LA Times - Bush +3 RVs
August 23rd - TIPP - TIED (RVs)
August 25th - FoxNews - Kerry +1 LVs

I thought that Fox News was a partisan GOP hack firm that always slanted their results towards Bush.

Did I miss something.....................

















(Actually, as I posted before, Fox has a loose voter screen which is marginally Dem friendly... but why let actual facts get in the way of a good rant ;) )

Vorlon,

Nice to see Arizona changing to a friendlier shade of blue. :) Is that temporary in your opinion?

No - Arizona has firmed up very nicely for Bush.  Last weeks POS poll (just an absolute work of art these guy's polls by the way, these guys are GOOD) had Bush up about 7.6%.  

The whole map has firmed up for Bush actually.  I am looking at a bunch of states for possible upgrades/downgrades depending on your perspective.

And I thought LA Times was a partisan Dem hack firm that always slanted their results toward Kerry...actually they are a news organization looking to create news stories, which isn't particularly adept at running an accurate poll...but why let actual facts get in the way of a good rant ;)

I believe I have found the flaw in ODs recent methodology.

I'd like to see their breakout (demographically) of self-identified Democrats.

The Democrat split is unrealistic.

No Republican party Presidential nominee since World War II has received less than 12% of the vote from self-identified Democrats, and no Democrat Presidential nominee in the same period has received more than 87%.

I wonder what the results to questions 39-41, and 45-46 were?

Point to elcorazon... :)

I think Bush will get a modest boost (similar to Kerry’s, perhaps a little less) after the RNC convention with the likes of McCain and Arnie speaking it should look very good for the Republicans, the protest may in fact help Bush, at the same time they may not… over all I think Bush will get a modest boost that will have evaporated within a week and we’ll be back to Bush and Kerry on evens until the debates when a lot people will finally make their minds up… at that point I think that it will be more likely that Kerry would lose it than Bush would win it, If Kerry can perform to the level he did against Bill Weld in 96 he will win, if he performs like he did in a number of the democratic debates he will lose with voters who are disillusioned with Bush but not sold on Kerry staying home, if he does well they will come out and vote for him… I still think this will come down to the wire, I don’t see Bush or Kerry opening up a clear lead any time soon.