Talk Elections

New Poll: West Virginia President by Other Source on 2008-05-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5420080503106)

Summary:

Clinton:	63%
Obama:	23%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200805050638)

TSG Consulting, a political consulting firm with offices in Charleston and Beckley, released a statewide poll showing Clinton with a commanding 40-point lead over Obama, 63 percent to 23 percent. The telephone poll, conducted by Orion Strategies Saturday among 300 Democratic and independent voters, had a margin of error of nearly 6 percent.

Trash poll.

I'm very surprised.

Trash poll?  Wanna bet?  It's West Virginia.

Pre-Tuesday. 

MOE of 6%

I can't say it's trash but I do not believe it is very relevant now.  I want to see something from May 7-8th. 

It could be right.

But, 6% MoE + before a major news event + pollster I've never heard of with no past record in political polling = Trash

I don't care if it were to agree with my exact margin prediction; it's still a trash poll.

she isnt going to win by 40.

but 35 isnt unreasonable.

i dont think the events of the past week have gotten obama more than a few extra points in wv.  of course, ive been wrong before...

Understatement of the century.

Alcon's right this is trash, plus it disagrees with Rasmussen. I honestly don't care though, Obama would be the nominee without a single delegate from WV.

I don't think something like 67 - 33 is completely out of the question.  It's just that the demographics of the state are right in line with Hillary's base.  A handful of these counties are going to be like 5 to 1.

I'm sticking with my 64%-35% prediction.

The undecideds are really high. But it shouldnt even matter..Obama is still going to get slaughtered.

WV polls are usually rubbish. For what that's worth.

goddammit.  this isnt about delegates.

look, barring some miracle (or disaster...depending on your perspective) obama is going to be the nominee.

you want your party's nominee losing by 30 points in a *may* primary?

that doesnt scream 'im a strong candidate'.

obama has serious problems with white workers.  serious problems.  obviously the democrats have neglected those people starting in 1972.  but the way it looks now obama will do worse than kerry (remember him?) among the white working class...and that is really saying something.

newsflash:  young voters + black voters + hand wringing whites who drive volvos and have npr totebags doesnt equal an electoral college victory.

Not that I don't believe your statement, but what past elections are you basing the statement on?

I'm happy the Democrats are nominating him. I love watching his supporters make fun of Hillary supporters for calling his caucus wins in those states irrelevant and then they say her wins in WV, Kentucky and such are irrelevant. I guess I just don't understand this new kind of politics. He'll lose both West Virginia and Kentucky by at least 30%, while 40% is not out of the realm of possibilities.

She can go ahead and win by 80 points for all I care.

Works both ways, doesn't it?

And after becoming the presumptive nominee McCain lost Utah by 84 points. What a disaster! Maybe we can get over this retarded idea that primary performance = strength in the general election.

no it doesnt work both ways.  not at all, zach.

blacks are loyal democrat voters.  and would be loyal to the democrat nominee in the fall even if it were clinton.  now you can make an argument that some would stay home.  that is certainly possible.  but those that vote would go 90-10 at least for the democrat.

secondly, in what states do black voters tip the balance.  sure, obama would do a few percentage points better among mississippi blacks than hillary would against mccain.  so what?  the state is a loss no matter what.

if obama doesnt begin to attract white working class voters, you can definitely kiss ohio goodbye.  pennsylvania is in doubt.  and someone tell me how obama can win without pa?

ooo.  let me guess.  obama can win without pa...because he is going to win virginia, colorado,  nevada, iowa and kansas!

pie in the sky stuff.

Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania?

Stop it with your facts!

blacks tip the balance in those states?

let's take pennsylvania for example...if obama doesnt win in places where democrats have to win to carry the state: erie, scranton/wilkes-barre, and working class areas around pittsburgh like beaver county....how in the hell does he win the state?

there arent enough blacks in philly or hand-wringers in delaware county to make up the lost votes.

And also, feel free to piss off young people...

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Oregon, Washington St..  yadda yadda yadda

Similarly, if blacks don't turn out heavily in Philly, Detroit or Cleveland, Clinton's going to have a hard time winning PA, MI, or OH.

Can both sides decide right now that both parts of the democratic party are equally important. Or should we start a nice little flame war?

In conclusion, each candidate has f***ed the chances of the other candidate. Hooo-ray.

Hmm.  Hillary leads in most polls vs McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania.  (She also is VERY competitive in Florida).  But nope, Obama can win with moveon.org, young voters, and the eggheads.  Working class whites?  Who needs em?  A bunch of ignorant gun toten hicks.  They are too stupid to understand the new society that Barack and Michelle have in store for us.  Ignore them in November.  You don't need them to win.  George McGovern said so.

Anyone who actually believes Obama will lose Lackawanna in the general election is quite delusional.

he needs to win it by a good margin.

i will say this, i think he will lose beaver county in western pa.

Don't you even thinking about bumping this thread up, Franzl.