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Title: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 16, 2008, 11:07:17 AM New Poll: Oregon President by ARG on 2008-5-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4102008516001)
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Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/) Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Alcon on May 16, 2008, 07:10:55 PM Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots
Quote Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th. On the other hand, it's ARG...but I wouldn't be surprised if this race were closer than what the polls show. Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Flying Dog on May 16, 2008, 07:30:05 PM How long should the counting take?
Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on May 17, 2008, 01:14:11 AM Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement. Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Alcon on May 17, 2008, 02:42:17 AM Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement. Well they're better than guessing, marginally. I was really just hoping to draw your ire :P Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on May 17, 2008, 10:06:41 AM Another poll showing Obama and Clinton tied among already-cast ballots Oh come on, you should know better than to look at an ARG poll for ANYTHING but amusement. Well they're better than guessing, marginally. No. All that demographic analysis stuff to get estimates is WAY more accurate than ARG. Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on May 17, 2008, 11:48:32 AM Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle?
Remember their last Iowa poll? Clinton-34% Edwards-21% Obama-25% They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Mr. Morden on May 17, 2008, 01:29:48 PM Why have they underpolled Obama and overpolled Clinton so badly this cycle? Remember their last Iowa poll? Clinton-34% Edwards-21% Obama-25% They missed Obama by 13 pts, how does that even happen? Because they're really awful. I'm convinced that they just use a random number generator to create their "polls". They've regularly been off by 10 points or so, and 15 points off isn't that uncommon. In SC, their final pre-election poll had Obama leading by 3, and he won by 24. Here are some of ARG's greatest hits just from pre-Super Tuesday (final ARG poll for each state): IA: Clinton up by 9 NH: Obama up by 9 MI: McCain up by 1 SC: Obama up by 3 SC: Huckabee up by 7 FL: Romney up by 2 But those are just the final pre-election polls. ARG's polls from weeks or months before an election are often much worse. For example, in early 2007, they had Clinton leading by double digits in Iowa, when every other pollster had Edwards leading. In the spring/summer of 2007, they had McCain still leading in SC, when everyone else had him trailing by double digits. In mid-January, when every other pollster had McCain leading in CA and Giuliani in the low teens, ARG had Giuliani leading by double digits with 33% of the vote. Title: Re: OR PrimD: ARG: Obama maintains lead in OR Post by: Angel of Death on May 18, 2008, 01:33:33 AM Nothing beats the self-parody of having Clinton up in Wisconsin.
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