Talk Elections

It is becoming increasingly clear Sen. Kerry will not be elected in November.  Just turn on CSPAN and you'll see why.  Also, the latest polls have Bush's approval rating soaring in to the low 50s.

Lets hope for the best in 2006 (time will tell if we have a chance then either) and rally behind a strong candidate for 2008.

Funny how some Republicans were saying the exact opposite thing two weeks ago.  The real campaign season doesn't even start until next week!

What on earth? Nothing is clear absolutely nothing. Kerry's lead last month was fragile, as is Bush's lead today. Bush will climb into September but its not over. Not by a long shot. Gore was down in dozens of national and state polls this time last round and he bet Bush in the popular vote. Kerry is leading in every Gore state, minus Wisconsin, and he is leading in New Hampshire. It's not over. Never be defeatest. Remember 1980? Undicided till polling day.

You've been saying that forever Boss, hah.

The election has always been a giant rubber band so far, bouncing back and forth between each candidate.  Now, with Bush a couple percent ahead in the polls, it's like the race is already decided?

Yeah, when they released that DUI report the weekend before the election, it was close.

Kerry can't win. If he did win, it'd destroy the Democratic party.

Bill Richardson/Mark Warner 2008!

if that doesn't work

Hillary Clinton/John Edwards 2008!

if that doesn't work

Barack Obama/John Breaux 2008!

All of those tickets would do better than Kerry/Edwards. I do think Bush will win, although it really all comes down to a few states.

I believe a second Bush term will be a disaster for the Republicans in the long term. The country is polarised. Bush will have 'honeymoon' ratings of 60%, which will fall to the 40's before the summer of 2005. I see a Democratic landslide on the cards come 2008 if Bush wins. Also, if Kerry wins, I think he will loose come 2008.

Edwards/Obama!

Sometimes I hope Kerry will lose. But, That means we'll have four more years of Bush AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can someone name one thing Bush has done to hurt him?

That wouldn't work methinks, too inexperienced.

Edwards/Ford Jr.

A more moderate Obama almost from a better state with a touch more experience.

Yeah, yeah, I think Bush'll win :(

From the beginning, I've said the exact same thing: this horse-race nonsense obscures the fact that the election is NOT decided by day-to-day events, unless they are of extraordinary consequence. That's why my prediction has been the same from the day Kerry locked up the Dem nomination.

If you isolate the candidates, and draw up the dynamics of the race, it is obvious Bush is the heavy favorite. Pre-RNC polls have driven all the Kerry talk, but that's all it ever was- talk. Everyone said it was "Kerry's race to lose"-- which meant, when he lost, they could say "Kerry lost it" rather than "I was wrong." Very convenient.



Whichever party wins in '04 is kind of screwed for '08, though the GOP does have something in it's favor.

In an emergency, they can call up Rudy Guiliani. The Dems have no response.

If economists and other commentators are to be believed then Bush's tax cuts of 2001 will leave him with some major economic troubles during a second term. A Bush victory in 2004 could do for the Republicans what Major's 1992 victory did for the Conservatives in Britain, ie. leave the party dogged by an internal ideological struggle (in this case between moderates, eg. McCain, Giuliani etc, and the religious right) and perceived governmental incompetence.

Btw, I agree with Boss Tweed that Edwards/Ford is the Democrats' best ticket for 2008.

No nation has ever taxed its way into prosperity.

And because taxes do not create an economy, they cannot destroy one when cut. Go find the economist that predicted that crap and punch him the face. Twice.

it's a little premature to be declaring a winner.

barring any major events, i expect the election to be super close.

I agree with Walter Mitty. We won't know the winner until Election Day.

You could have said that about Reagan-Mondale though.

Obviously no one can be sure, but I think George Bush will win. Nothing without providence...

Frankly, I am quite surprised at your pessimism. The way I see it, the 'Left' Base has been solidified, as has that of the 'Right'. Opinion polls mean nothing in terms of popular vote, in an electoral college system. If Kerry does well in Ohio for example , and solidifies his lead in the Gore states, he can win. Regardless of who eventually does win, its obviously going to be really, really close.

I really doubt it will be close.

Yes, Gore was down at this point in the campaign in 2000.  The difference between then and now is that then it was Gore who was having the later convention to make up for some of his popular deficit.  This time around, Bush is not only up, he's up right before the start of the republican convention.

Am I the only one who's getting really tired of all everybody endlessly repeating the conventional wisdom that this election will necessarily be close.  It certainly could be, but the race could easily break one way or another between now and election day.  Honestly, I think Bush will open up a wider lead between now and the election.  I don't think the swift vets story is going to go away any time soon, the economy is growing, Bush's approval ratings are on a rebound, and the Bush campaign has a much better organization than the Kerry campaign.  All that put together suggests to me that Bush has a shot of winning this election by a much wider than expected margin--maybe 8 to 10 points.

Of course, I could be way, way, way off.

wait...Kerry can't win...because?

Because he hasn't generated any true support for himself as a candidate.  Most of those who are backing Kerry at the moment are part of the ABB crowd.  There is only so many of them in the nation.  Where as Bush can appease some of the ABB's, Kerry can't pull away the GOP voters from Bush (most polls show a higher percentage of GOPs backing Bush than DNCs backing Kerry).

The best Kerry can do nationally is 50%.  Bush has the potential of doing better.

Yeah, Bush has about a 52% approval rating among voters. That means you need more than the ABB crowd to break 50%.

Well you would have been nuts:

()

Reagan was up 20.

I'm just praying that SOMEONE will come along and dismantle the Republicrat regime.

It would take a gargantuan personality to do that.

<light bulb>

Let's convince Oprah to run!

:?

Oprah/Trump 2008 ;D

Still don't know the winner until Election Day.

hahaha . . . now that would be scary.  Trump would be running around yelling "You're fired" while fixing his hair, and Oprah would be chasing him saying "Donald.  Donald, get back here.  You're late for your appointment with Dr. Phil."

hehehe

It would help to know what your definition is of "close" from an electoral vote point of view.

I mean, for example, do you consider 288-250 close?

Yes, you do

Oh well.  I bet they could buy ads on every single program and win quite a few states :)

Heck, I might support them for my first vote ever if they did that ;)

After tonight's speech I think McCain will be unbeatable in 2008.  By campaigning hard for Bush this year, Bush will return the support in 2008.  

If he runs in 2008, McCain would defeat any Democratic challenger.

I dont think McCain will win the Rep. primaries, but Bush will show some loyalty back now.

Kerry will win.  He's the comeback kid.  He will eke out a win in Ohio to carry him to victory.  Columbus is beginning to trend democratic - those independents in the middle of the state are souring on the Bush administration's failed economic policies.

He was behind against Weld in 1996 for most of the campaign, and he was 3rd behind Dean and Gephardt in Iowa 2004 as late as 1 week befor ethe caucus.

The Iowa Caucuses were for the Democrats. His Senate race was in a very liberal Democratic state. He is running nationwide now. This isn't Iowa. This isn't Massachusetts. Kerry had his time in the spotlight. He was the center of attention for awhile. It's Bush's turn now and America see that he is, without a doubt, the best man for the job.

I think whoever wins will do so decicively enough that we'll know the winner before the official state-by-state results come in.

No wanting to beat to death the obvious but...

3 debates
2 months
3 broadcast networks

Iraq
The Economy

There are still a few bumps along the way for Bush till term #2

It's half time at the Superbowl.

Bush is up a field goal.

There is a lot of football left to be played.

I think Bush will open and hold a 3-4 point lead by November, but with Nader off the ballot in key states and a high turnout, the race will tighten. Kerry is good at coming back from the dead, even after a 'character assassination' Kerry will gain states like Missouri, while loosing in states like Wisconsin. I've said it before and I'll say it again, it will be close run thing right to the polls close in the West. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona will be 'Too Close to Call' for longer than usual, and i think Kerry will take Nevada and New Mexico (with Colorado VERY CLOSE) and take a 274 victory or something similar. Expect to see a lot of grey and not much red and blue on the map until later on.

Well I think this dog's shot.  Bush has won the election

That's okay, bud. We still have the Red Sox!

:)

At least somebody from Massachusetts is going to win something this year!