Talk Elections

Wednesday June 4, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders

Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question.

Both candidates have a lot of work to do if they are to win a majority of the popular vote. Just 32% of voters say they are “certain” to vote for Obama and an identical number are “certain” to vote for McCain. That means 36% of the nation’s voters are open to possibly changing their vote.

As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

From a partisan perspective, McCain attracts 83% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. McCain has an eight-point advantage over Obama among unaffiliated voters. Keep in mind that many of this year’s unaffiliated voters were Republicans four-years ago. The number identifying with the GOP has declined from just under 37% in 2004 to 31% today. At the same time, many unaffiliated voters from four years ago, now consider themselves to be Democrats.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 43% unfavorable
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable

Issues

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view.

When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their won, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports has made a number of changes in our tracking poll as we shift to fully focus on the fall campaign. Starting on Monday, we increased our tracking poll calls to interview 1,000 Likely Voters per night. We will now be reporting results on a three-day rolling average basis. Previously, we had reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The increased number of calls will enable us to provide even more detailed and timely coverage of Election 2008. Over the coming two weeks, many new features will be rolled out, some for the public site and some for Premium Members.

Here comes the nomination bump!!!

That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

Well, I don't think we will see the real bump in Obama numbers until Hilliary drops out and backs him.

My thoughts exactly. Very odd. Interesting that Obama seems to be doing so poorly with Hispanics. The white number, on the other hand, isn't so bad for a Democrat is it?

If Kerry had those breakdowns in 2004, he would have won Ohio and the election (assuming a uniform swing of demographics), as well as possibly other states. Kerry did lose whites by IIRC eighteen points in 2004. Bear in mind of course that the sample sizes for blacks and Hispanics both are quite small, only a couple hundred at most.

Yes, yes, of course. Still, given undecideds and MoE the difference between 13 and 18 isn't enormous. Besides, I suspect Obama whites will be spread unevenly across the states compared to Kerry's...

So in other words, Obama is yet another George McGovern, who is going to rely on the "youth" vote to put him in the White House.   

God help us all.

MikeyCNY is posting again.

God help us all.

Here we go until November.

Oh yeah! Obama beating McCain by two points! Can you people say land-slide?

YES WE CAN!

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Mike, I will freely admit that John McCain has more pull in the Hispanic community than any other person the Republicans could've nominated this cycle.  But do you think that he could overcome the image that GOP immigration hardliners have branded on the entire Republican Party over the last four years?  I think that McCain won't match Bush's (quite good for a Republican) 2004 numbers among Hispanics.

Kind of a shame that one of the few issues I agree with both McCain and George W. Bush on is one where they disagree with practically all Congressional Republicans.

This poll was taken before Obama clinched the nomination. I expect to see him get a bump of a few percentage points sometime mid-to-late next week after Hillary drops out and endorses him.

Are you saying you think McCain will win the Hispanic vote?

Yeah, and, when this poll was taken, Obama hadn't even won the primary/been endorsed by Clinton/united the party yet.

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

Now I realise that I am (compared to Mr. Rasmussen) not an expert, but there's something bout this map that doesn't tally

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The colour scale is: very dark (bankers), inbetween light and dark (likely), light (leaners)

Since when has VA leaned GOP (I have it in 2004 as a GOP banker), similarily why is PA is leaner (2004 ssays a Dem banker)

Unsure. I think he'll do well better than Bush. After all, "McCain is for amnesty", right?

But isn't Obama for it too? I'm not to sure, that is an subject I don't look into to much.

It's hilarious that you think the members of your party are so stupid and starstruck that they'll walk hand in hand to support Obama because Hillary says so. Yes, most of them will, but it's not going to be 100% or even 90%.

Well the last PPP poll done, they said if he could get 80% of the Clinton supports he would be ahead in NC by 3%, so Obama doesn't need 100% or even 90%. Just 80%

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?

Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?

Mike,

From Gallup (May 1-31), among Hispanics, Obama leads McCain by 62 to 29

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

Dave

Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Thursday June 5, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners (-, -)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders (-, -)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama: 54% favourable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -)

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.


Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.

...after this poll was released.

Everyone knew he was going to be the nominee by the time this poll was conducted. Give me a break. And don't tell me this was the "absolute low point" in Obama's campaign. Complete nonsense.

I don´t see a problem here. The Rasmussen "Daily Tracking" is based on a 3-day rolling average, 2 nights were polled before Clinton was defeated. Wait a week or 2 to see if he got any bump. By the way look at the Bush-Kerry graph from June 2004:

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Bush started leading by 2-3 in Mid June. So if Obama's ahead by 5 in Mid-June it would translate into a 5-8% swing compared with 2004. So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

Its going to be a long summer and fall...McCain does have the advantage that the GOP convention follows Obama's.

Given how things are going (stagnant economic growth <1% last Q, $4/Gallon etc), I would have expected a slightly larger Obama lead, but its still too far out to really boast or get one's panties in a twist.

About ten, yes.

Phil, you cannot be encouraged by that.  The issues do not bode well for the GOP this time around.  You should expect that McCain would be ahead right now considering the amount of dirt dug up about people surrounding Obama and his gaffes during the primaries.  The GE is going to be very issue-oriented and I don't think McCain can GAIN in the polls from that.  I'd like the hear your perspective on how with so many issues going against him McCain is going to be able to pick up support.

I shouldn't be encouraged by what? McCain being down two instead of the expected ten points?

With all due respect, you're a little too confident and naive to say something like "this is going to be very issue oriented." Sure, it will mainly be about the "real" issues as it should be. However, some of this "non important" issues still have a huge impact.

The issues may favor your side for now but who is to say that that will last? Will Obama's economic policies be wildly popular? Not necessarily. What's he going to propose when it comes to tax policy? Will people see McCain as more of the proven reformer compared to Obama? Possibly. Is the war, as unpopular as it may be, as bad as it once was? Will people be as supportive of a quick withdrawal with fewer troops dying? Who knows. We have to wait and see.

I like the position McCain is in right now. Also, remember that we need to look beyond the simple "Who is leading in popular vote?" polls.

AMEN!

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/06/26/cnn.poll/index.html

June 26, 2000

          Now    June 6-7

Bush    52%   48%
Gore    39%   44%

Obama should be up on McCain by even more than Bush was up on Gore.

We could make the simple counterargument that, if Republicans truly do lose fourteen points between June and November, Obama is safely President already. Obviously this isn't the case, but then it is also the case that Bush's numbers in 2000 have no relevancy at all to today. Those numbers mean nothing other than that things change. (And, given that Bush had won the nomination by early March if not before, the point is moot anyway.)

I am confident but I'm not naive to think that this is a Democratic year.  I didn't guarantee that Obama's proposals would be wildly popular, but when McCain's policies are as close to the past 8 years as they are when the current administration has an approval rating around 30%, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think a "change" message would have more appeal. 

McCain will have some trouble with "connections" to the President but he has more of a "change" spin on them. McCain can point to a longer record as a maverick.

That he can, if he couldn't this would be a blowout. 

God you guys are lucky you didn't nominate Romney. 

Be patient about bounces.  Also, be realistic about what they actually mean.  It should happen that a bounce will occur, but there are a few reasons in my head why none may occur right now.  It is hard to tell.

Copying Dave's reporting style...

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Friday June 6, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+2, +1)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, +1)

Saturday June 7, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, -)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+2, +2)

Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.

McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-, -)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, -)

Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

I know I'm not a Democrat, but anyone who expected an overnight 15-point bump is kidding themselves.  Why would Obama get the support of disaffected Clintonites overnight?  I imagine that won't really happen meaningfully into the one-on-one campaign gets going.

Not saying it will be 15 points, btw.

It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.

I honestly think the "returning to the ideological norm" bump has the greater potential than the "rally effect," assuming rally also includes excitement about having a Dem nominee.  I'm not sure this is going to be a sudden bump.  Sam and I seem to be the only one who think this though.

Remember that "returns to the ideological norms" can flow both ways, especially considering when the original movement occurred.

Expect the polls to slowly trend in Obama's favor.  Things like these don't happen overnight.

Actually, a number of things can happen here.  Quite frankly, more than Alcon seems to be implying that I said.  In truth, I was really only referring to the next couple of weeks in my original statement.

My statement above actually gives some meaning to one possible result, which is in fact, rather counterintuitive.

I'm interested in the "rally effect," if any.  There may not be a bump, or a minor one, due to disaffected Clinton voters.

Sunday June 8, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (+2, +2)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-2, -2)

Obama’s bounce is the result of growing unity among the Democratic Party. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they will vote for Obama over McCain. That’s the highest level of party support ever enjoyed by Obama. Still, three-out-of-ten voters are either uncommitted or could change their mind before Election Day. Fifty-six percent (56%) of those swayable voters are women and most earn less than $60,000 a year.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+3, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-3, +2)

Tonight (Sunday), at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data for South Carolina, and Texas. Additional state surveys will be released on Monday.

An 8 point lead? Nice. McCain is getting obliterated right now.

Nice to see a bounce starting to appear. Hopefully it settles.

8 points? Crap.  If this settles until the general election, Obama is probably going to get all of the swing states, plus a couple bonuses.  Thankfully, it probably won't.

What would an 8 pt win for Obama look like?  53-45 in the PV with 2% going to others (last times that happened was Bush v. Dukakis). 

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393-145 would be nice....

This isn't going to happen though. 

Awesome! South Carolina has had only one poll so far this year, and I've been wanting another one for a while now.

Tomorrow's election is going to be a bloodbath!

Uh-oh... looks like you spoke to soon Mr. King.

Indeed.  A day too early.

Monday June 9, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats and now holds a very modest three-point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters. Both those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past week. McCain attracts 83% of Republicans. Still, 30% of all voters either have no preference at this time or could change their vote before Election Day.

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)

At noon today, data will be released on where voters see Obama and McCain ideologically. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data will be released for Senate races in Texas, New Jersey and other states. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, state polling data on the Presidential race will be released for Wisconsin, New Jersey, and other states.

The end campaign boost.  We'll see what it's like om 6/15.

Wtf happened with Obama's favourables. That jump is a bit insane in such a short period of time.

I was expecting a gradual increase as Clinton people started flowing back to Obama...instead apparently it was almost overnight.   It's nice to see that I, again, overestimated the sincerity of the American voting public.

The bump among unaffiliated voters seems less likely to last, though.  Not that it matters.  If Obama wins Democrats by the same clip McCain wins Republicans, McCain would have to do stellar among independents to win.

And it still seems hard to imagine that all of the Clinton spite voters have returned home...the immediacy of this bump baffles me.

There is no way in Hades that Georgia goes Obama before Arkansas.

Tuesday June 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable; 40% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Gallup and Rasmussen both show the race settling into a 7-8 point Obama lead, about the margin I expect Obama to win by come November.

Bush had a 1.5% lead for Rasmussen at this point in 2004.

Sure there is (although neither have any chance of vorting for him anyway).

Ehhh... This is what I expect.

Obama 52%
McCain 47%

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...but it could turn out to be a landslide.
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In other words, from now until November this is going to be your basic Obama-McCain poll.

Obama 43%, McCain 40%, Undecided 17%

Various bumps and small "scandals" will likely influence who that 17% will be from week to week which is why the tracking poll varies so much, but it's still 17% who can go either way regardless. I expect the battle for the last 17 to be a good one.

Wednesday June 11, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-3, +2)
McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Issues

45% (+1) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 42% (+2) prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 49% (-2) have more trust in McCain while 41% (+4) prefer Obama.

A former Clinton advisor put it this way:

"You can a candidate who can't win (Obama), nominated by a party (Democratic) that can't lose. At the same time you have a candidate who is going to win (McCain), nominated by a party (Republican) destined to lose."

Then what the heck are they voting on?

That's a great quote... if you take Dick Morris seriously.

By the way, your candidate is still losing.

Yeah. Five months left. Forget it, guys. There's no way it's happening.

Talking to our enemies... that seems like a good idea... maybe the bravest are the ones who step back to think before retaliating.

Oh my god, that's hilarious.

Yeah, Reagan and GWB really put their life on the line in service of the country.


and..wait a second, Obama isn't president yet. ???

You really help our cause, Mike.

Also...


...huh?

what

Well, let me give you one example (from the ABC/WaPo/TNS poll)

"Regardless of who you may support, who do you trust more to handle immigration issues: Obama or McCain?" Candidate names rotated
 
                      McCain Obama Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
                         %          %       %               %                   %
  
5/8-11/08        37         42        3               10                    7

There is a difference between the type of enemy the liberals want to talk to, though.

A soviet leader could be spoken to.
A terrorist who will blow himself up to kill you, can not.

I'm not gonna stand back and play the whole "let's be pc" game. I am allowed to speak my mind freely on the issues, and after his snide remark...I had to say something.

Osama Bin Laden= Terrorist... Ayotollah Khomeni or Ahmadawhatever- religious zealots but politicians in the end. We can talk to these religious zealots but I agree that negotiating with someone like Osama is not  helpful at all.

Agree.

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Which is particularly amusing given that Ahmadinejad doesn't really even have any power within Iran.

That's the one thing he and Osama Bin Laden have in common!

"Prefered doing drugs," Mike? Come on.

Of course anger may have intruded the keyboard, as well.

Probably not the only thing thats done harm to your keyboard as well...

(zing)

Both opposed to the existence of Israel; both support terrorist organizations.  You did ask.

Thursday June 12, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 50%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads by eleven points among women but trails by a single point among men (including leaners). Thirty-nine percent (39%) of women say they are certain they will vote for Obama in November. Another 10% say they would vote for him today but could change their mind, and 3% are leaning towards voting for Obama. For McCain those numbers are 30% certain, 8% who could change their mind, and 3% leaning towards voting for him.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of men are certain they will vote for McCain while 34% say the same about Obama.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Friday June 13, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Obama attracts 84% of political liberals while McCain is supported by 76% of conservatives. While there are more conservatives than liberals in the nation today, Obama also enjoys a twenty-eight point advantage over McCain among moderates.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-2, +1)

Exactly. In Iran, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has control over foreign policy, the armed forces, nuclear policy, and the main economic policies of the Iranian state; indeed, he has the final say on all matters of policy whether domestic or foreign

Dave

More or less true, but it would be more accurate to say that Khamenei is the face of a Conservative oligarchy mainly united by distrust of the conservative faction of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani - the reformists, contrary to western media reports, are quite irrelevant - a lack of military and economic power tends to do that. Khamenei is still the same opinion less cypher who was considered pro-American and Pro-Israel when he served as President in the 1980s. In fact, he was picked as Supreme leader in 1989 precisely because with Montzerai out of the running, he was least threatening figure available. An affable non-entity. Meeting with him would not be much more productive than meeting with Ahmadinejad  and a good deal less amusing.

Real change in Iran will only come when they sort out their internal problems, which will likely occur when the reformists and Rafsanjini realize they need each other in order to stop their enemies from gaining a monopoly on power.

Until that time, relations with the US, a nuclear program so haphazard that it is not even intended to produce a bomb, support for hezbollah, and the situation in Iraq, are all political footballs to be tossed around in factional squabbles. No one has the same position they had fifteen years ago on anything, and virtually every position is opportunistic. Quite frankly the US could work with anyone provided they were in a possession to actually make deals, but that won't happen till someone has consolidated enough that they can insure that the benefits of such an arrangement(primarily financial) will accrue to them, and that they won't be accused of selling out by their rivals because those rivals will be dead or irevelent. Until such a time, talking is meaningless, except as part of a diplomatic game.

{end of rant on Iran - please return to the regularly scheduled Rasmussen poll}

Saturday June 14, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +2)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.

Democratically elected? Well, in the same way Robert Mugabe is "democratically elected", I guess. The democratic credentials of a race where a special group of unelected theocrats get to determine who runs are suspicious. Additionally, there were several reports of fraud in favor of Ahmadinezhad.

We could discuss the level of democracy in Iran until we're both blue in the face. The fact is Iran is a lot more democratic than a whole sting of American allies in the Middle East, the leaders of which the President has no problem meeting.

Sunday June 15, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 39% / 43%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%. 

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People are apparently becoming less decided as time goes on. Or maybe weekend respondents are generally less decisive?

There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world.

Seriously though, this race has a lot more flexibility than 2004.  Instead of 47% of people immovable - this race probably has less than 45%, maybe more like 43% on each side.  But less than the 40% you saw in elections prior to the 1990s.

The number of undecideds doesn't surprise me at all.  And the fact that people are moving towards undecided is even less surprising.

That's the reason why I say - patience.

I think in a week, we'll be characterizing the race as "close, with a lot of undecideds."  :)

Monday June 16, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+3, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

The bump indeed seems to have died down.

There was one, and there still might be some left.  It wasn't huge and it wasn't long lasting. 

It might take the rest of the week for it to shake out.

It's either the addition of a strong McCain sample or the removal of a strong Obama sample - only time will tell. 

OTOH, Gallup has already shown the classic tracking-poll draw down - from Obama +6 to Obama +4.  We'll see whether that continues.

Tuesday June 17, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

Wednesday June 18, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

With leaners, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 79% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, it’s Obama 46% McCain 41%.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

My guess is a 3-4 point race.

Perhaps Rasmussen will confirm recent trends from other pollsters (SUSA, Obama +9; PPP, Obama +11; and Qunnipiac, Obama +6) in OH. In May, he had McCain on 45%; Obama 44%

It will be interesting to see whether AK has tightened and Obama continues to hold big lead in ME

Dave

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

I agree, and ME will be Obama by 10% or more and Ohio will be around 9% Obama.

In April, McCain had a 5-point lead (48-43); but in May, AK shifted his way giving him a 9-point lead (50-41), so any moving towards Obama will raise a :) from me

Dave

4 to be correct. ;)

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey, however, is not frowned upon.  I just managed to forget about the Undecided sample, which evidently broke for McCain :)

Obama is winning Ohio by 9%? Good grief.

It's not extrapolation; I was using the wrong phrase.  It's using sub-samples to calculate other samples.

CARL, this is essentially what I did.  Here's an example:

Male (51%): Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Female (49%): Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Now, 51% of the sample is male and 49% is female.

Thus, the Obama sample is (0.51*0.51)+(0.49*0.54) = 0.5247 = 52% Obama

And the McCain sample is (0.51*0.48)+(0.49*0.45) = 47% McCain

I realize this introduces some rounding error, but when the sub-sample is from the same poll, it does give you a very close approximation of the results -- unless you screw up the math by forgetting Undecideds, which I did.  This should work in any instance where you have samples that constitute the entirety of the poll, and then results for what you're trying to determine for those samples.

You can feel free to tell me where I'm wrong on the math, but I do not believe I am.  :)  And I haven't ever deleted a post and claimed I didn't make it, so you're really just archiving your inability to use the QUOTE tag.

Alcon,

First, extrapolation for "undecideds" according to the proportion of "decideds" is very, very wrong!

It assumes that the "undecideds" are reflective of the decideds (generally false).  The undecideds are generally those with lower SES than the decideds.  Also, the undecideds several months prior to an election are not only different from the decideds at that time, but they also differ from the undecideds in the closing days prior to an election.

It also runs counter to experience.  You may have heard that the general rule is that when there is an incumbent involved in a race that is essentially even among the decideds, the undecideds will generally support the challenger.

Further, what you are attempting to do is statistically invalid.  While the MoE for a total poll may be x.  If you try to extrapolate based on subsamples, you drastically increase your MoE.

No, man, I didn't do that.  You're misunderstanding.  I accidentally ignored the break-out of Undecideds.

Here's what I did, with fake numbers.  I took the Begich/Stevens break-down and who they voted for (with fake numbers):

Stevens (50%): McCain 83%, Obama 17%
Begich (45%): Obama 88%, McCain 12%

With that, I got the example total of:

McCain: (0.50*0.83)+(0.45*0.12) = 46.9%
Obama: (0.50*0.17)+(0.45*0.88) = 48.1%

As I said, there's rounding error involved here, since the Obama/McCain breakdown among Begich and Stevens supporters was presented in whole percentages.  However, my big mistake was forgetting the Undecided sample, which I'll arbitrarily say was 62% McCain, 38% Obama.  That adds:

McCain: 0.469+(0.05*0.62) = 50.0%
Obama: 0.481+(0.05*0.38) = 50.0%

The concept was fine, I just messed up the execution.  I introduced extra error from discluding undecideds to the trivial errors related to rounding.


No, again, you don't understand.

The MoE for male+female in a poll (and Stevens+Begich+Undecided) is the same as the poll itself.  It contains the same number of respondents, unless I underestimate the number of eunuchs in Alaska.  Therefore, the MoE is identical.  The only source of error is rounding (as long as the sub-samples add to 100% of the sample)

Where do you get the idea that a subsample of a survey has the same MoE as the total sample?

This is why some polls interested in a particular group use an oversample so that they can get some statistically valid data from the subsample.

You really need to take a course in survey research.

You really should only be glib when you're not full of it.  The subsamples do have larger MoEs.  When you add them together, they do not.  They're no longer subsamples -- they're the entire sample, just combined after having been separated.

Male + Female = 700 respondents
Whole survey = The same 700 respondents

Unless there are:

1) Fewer responses
2) Different responses

...it's the same MoE (same respondent count and respondents), and valid..

In this case, it's neither, so it's a valid calculation.

Using fake numbers and arbitrary assumptions, Alcon gets the results he wants.

While doing your abracadra routine, you still have NOT dealt with the problem of allocating the undecideds.

You are merely assuming that they will vote the same way that the decideds are voting, weighted for one demographic!

If you delve into (admittedly delayed) information from the University of Michigan Survey Research Center (they've been at it for sixty years), you will find that undecideds are a completely different type than the decideds.

Carl,

since you misunderstood what Alcon said you could still save some face by acknowledging that. The undecideds in this case are not undecideds in the presidential race but undecideds in the senatorial race. Those undecideds may have a preference in the presidential race. Alcon forgot to include those in his calculation. The term extrapolation was a mistake on his part (as he noted) since that is not what he did. He merely used the subsamples presented by Rasmussen Reports (which add up to the total sample) to calculate the result for the whole sample. This is commonly done by most of us whenever a poll releases results from a set of subsamples that add up to the whole sample before they release the topline numbers. There is nothing statistically unsound here, since there are no new assumptions introduced.

Thursday June 19, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Voters are evenly divided as to which candidate they trust most on economic issues but favor McCain by a wide margin on national security topics.

Obama’s modest bounce since capturing the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now being reflected in a number of state polls. As a result, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows five states shifting in the Democrat’s direction today. Most notable are Colorado and New Hampshire which move from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic. New Jersey moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, Maine from Likely Democratic to Safely Democratic, and Tennessee from Safely Republican to Likely Republican. Polling released late yesterday shows that Ohio is still too close to call.

When all the changes are made, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 240. New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Colorado will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. Data on the state’s Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

While McCain is struggling with Obama’s bounce, his call for offshore oil drilling may be helping. A new poll shows that Florida voters agree with the GOP candidate that offshore drilling will bring down gas prices. When survey respondents are told that McCain favors offshore drilling and Obama opposes, support for McCain increases a bit. Data released earlier this week showed that 67% of voters believe drilling should be allowed off the coasts of California, Florida and other states. New national survey data on the topic of energy will be released at noon Eastern today including questions about offshore oil drilling, nuclear power plants, and research for alternative energy sources.

Other recent survey data shows that 56% say that the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated and that Congressional ratings have fallen to an all-time low. Thirty percent (30%) believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. Most voters believe that Supreme Court Justices have their own political agendas to advance and just 53% are opposed to bans on “hate speech.”

McCain leads among voters who earn $40,000 to $75,000 a year. Obama leads among those who earn less than $40,000 annually and those whose income tops $75,000.

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-1, -1)

First, I realize that you and Alcon does some funny things with numbers to get the results you want, but that does not make such practices valid or sound.

What Alcon did was to assume that if adjusted for one demographic factor (gender) he could project the undecided vote based on the decided vote.

Now, let me give you an example of how practicing this voodoo analysis results in weird results.

In 2004 there was a site online (can't remember the name) which sought to project the results in the states based on the national demographic preferences for the candidates.

Given this method, it had Minnesota supporting Bush and Mississippi supporting Kerry!!!  After all, a clear majority of whites nationwide preferred Bush, and an overwhelming majority of Blacks nationwide favored Kerry, and needless to say the percentage of the black vote in Minnesota is very small, and in Mississippi, far larger than the national average.

If we were to have a large enough sample (of the undecideds and the decideds) I believe you will find that while the gender distribution will be only slightly different (due to central tendency), the SES, particularly educational attainment and income will be dramatically different.  I also suspect that in this (2004 Presidential) election, the age distribution will be significantly different.

So, merely adjusting for one demographic does NOT adjust for others!!!

Second, there are other problems as well.

Undecideds have a different outlook on politics than decideds.  Again, check UM SRC data.  They tend to vote more against, than for (which explains why incumbents do so bad with them).

In conclusion, just assuming that based on one demographic componet, undecideds can be allocated in a particular fashion is foolish as well as unsound and invalid.

No, that was not what Alcon did. I have bolded the part in my post where I explain what he did. Let's say you have a poll which says how Texas whites are going to vote and how Texas blacks are going to vote and how Texas Hispanics are going to vote. If we assume that there are no other ethnic groups in Texas we could then calculate the overall standing between the two candidates based on their standings within these subsamples. If one did this but forgot to include Hispanics, looking only at blacks and whites, the result would however be wrong. And that is what Alcon did in this case.

Now, I would like to remind you that I have never used name-calling or gone out of my way to attack you and I would prefer that you didn't insinuate things such as me doing "funny things" with numbers. I don't and neither did Alcon in this case.

Gustaf explained what I did correctly.  I was not making any assumptions about undecideds or extrapolating data.  I was doing simple percentage addition.  Here is one last attempt at explaining it to you, CARL:

52% of a sample is men.  40% like carrots, 60% do not.

48% of a sample is women.  62% like carrots, 38% do not.

100% of the sample is either male or female.  Thus, the sample size is identical to the overall sample and has the same Margin of Error.

What I did is calculate the number of people who like carrots.  Now, 52% of the overall sample is male and 40% of them like carrots.  So, approximately 20.8% (40% of 52%) of the overall sample is men who like carrots.  For women who like carrots, that comes out to 30.0% (60% of 48%).  That means that about 50.8% (with rounding error) of the sample is ether men or women who like carrots.  Since there are no other categories than men or women, we know that 50.8% of respondents in the poll liked carrots.

My error was not including a third group--people who were undecided in the Senate race--in my numbers.  Again:  the "Undecideds" were undecided in the Senate, not Presidential race.  I was not allocating Presidential undecideds to one candidate or another.  Do you understand, now?

Friday June 20, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 44%, including leaners (-1, -1)

Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding is likely to have little impact on his standing with voters. Only 30% support public financing of the campaigns and just 16% say the issue is Very Important to their vote.

Polling released yesterday shows Colorado is once again too close to call in the Presidential race although the prospects for a Democratic Senate pick-up in the state are improving.

With this new data, Colorado is moving from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. At the same time, however, Ohio is moving from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.” The latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Ohio remains close but Rasmussen Markets data and an average of all recent polls have created a shift. With these changes, Obama now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 284, McCain 240.

New polling data on the Obama-McCain match-up in Nevada and New Hampshire will be released at Noon Eastern today.

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +2)

First, I never mentioned Texas in this thread, that's just another allegation you made up.

Second, the point of this thread (which you appear to have missed) is that you cannot appropriately allocate undecideds.

Alcon attempted (improperly) to allocate the undecideds.

How many times do I have to explain that I didn't allocate Presidential undecideds?  Here, let me try one more time:

I didn't allocate Presidential undecideds.

I allocated people who were undecided in the Senate race, but were decided in the Presidential race.  I allocated decided voters who were undecided in another race BUT decided in the presidential.  You can't possibly be this slow in understanding.  Read this time.

Here is one last example.  Again, theoretical numbers.  On the left is the respondent's opinion in the Senate race; on the right, Presidential.

Stevens (50%): McCain 85%, Obama 11%, Undecided 4%
Begich (45%): Obama 86%, McCain 9%, Undecided 5%
Undecided (5%): Obama 40%, McCain 36%, Undecided 24%

Here's a graphical representation:

()

So, 5% of voters are undecided in the Senate race.  We can't allocate those for the Senate race, but we can allocate those who are decided in the Presidential.

- 40% of Senate undecideds are decided for Obama.  40% of 5% means 2.0% of the overall sample are "undecided Senate voters decided for Obama."

- 36% of Senate undecideds are decided for McCain.  35% of 5% means 1.8% of the overall sample are "undecided Senate voters decided for McCain."

- 24% of Senate undecideds are undecided Presidentially, too.  24% of 5% means 1.2% of the overall sample are "undecided Senate voters undecided in the Presidential race."

You can see the contribution of Undecided Senate voters to the Presidential options Decided McCain, Decided Obama, and Undecided, below:

()

You can also see the results of performing the same operation with Decided Stevens and Decided Begich, and then adding to estimate the percentage for the Presidential response (with rounding error) for the overall sample.

So, tell us where I am attributing voters who are Undecided in any race as being Decided in that race, as you claim I am.

I, Aizen, shall take the reins today. Apologies Dave



Friday June 20, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-1, -1)

New data released today shows that Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports.

Data released yesterday showed Obama opening a big lead in New Hampshire while Nevada remains very competitive.

Obama’s decision to opt out of public funding is likely to have little impact on his standing with voters. Only 30% support public financing of the campaigns and just 16% say the issue is Very Important to their vote. Yesterday, McCain gave a speech extolling the virtues of free trade at a time when most Americans believe the North American Free Trade Agreement needs to be renegotiated. This position is far less popular among voters than the Republican candidate’s recent call for drilling in offshore oil wells.
 

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+2, -2)

Well, now that we're no longer dealing with "fake" numbers, lets look at your "assumptions."

You assume that seventy six per cent of the persons listed as undecided in the Presidential preference question were in fact lying, and that by projecting from results from demographics of the Senate questions onto the Presidential question you can get the results you want.

It doesn't work that way!!!

Correction ;)

Actually, no, this is the same concept that I've been trying to explain the entire time that you seem incapable of understanding.  The fact that you think this is a new concept shows that you have been confused this entire time but hurling accusations anyway.


No.  In those theoretical numbers, 76% of Senate undecideds were decided in the Presidential race, and I allocated those to the Presidential race.  They were NOT undecided voters in the Presidential race.

There's nothing that stops someone from being undecided in the Senate race and decided in the Presidential.  If 25% of voters are undecided in the Senate race, but none of those undecided Senate voters are undecided in the Presidential, you're arguing that 25% would still be undecided in the Presidential.  Obviously, that makes no sense and a few seconds of thought should have told you that.

Seriously though, if you are having this much trouble understanding a relatively simple concept, please do contact the Vorlon.  Maybe he can make you understand.

I don't think you are incapable of understanding, but simply that you do NOT want to understand.

First, NOTHING you have done validly indicates the breakdown of the undecided voters in the Presidential contest.

You seem to have obliquely acknowledged that extrapolation is invalid (which was your initial contention).

Are you still contending that on ONE demographic factor you can project the breakout of the undecideds in the Presidential race?

Finally, are you contending that the breakout in a poll (not results) in another race by party of candidate has a clear correlation to the breakout of the results in a Presidential poll?

Or are you now simply acknowledging what I said from the beginning, that there is currently no valid way of determining the eventual vote of the undecideds in a Presidential race?

I'm not allocating undecideds in the Presidential vote, just decideds who are undecided in another race.

Indicating the preferences of undecided voters in the race they're undecided on, is impossible because they are undecided in that race.  Any such extrapolation is arbitrary.  That's what you're (incorrectly) complaining that I'm doing.  I'm not doing that.


CARL, again, in the simplest way possible, you have the following results:

Male (50%): McCain 60%, Obama 40%
Female (50%): McCain 50%, Obama 50%

The McCain sample is (60% of 50%) plus (50% of 50%), which adds together "males for McCain" and "females for McCain," which gives you "males and females for McCain," which is the same as "voters for McCain."

I did this same operation for the Senate race, except with "Begich voters for McCain," "Stevens voters for McCain," and "undecided Senate voters for McCain."  Together, these represent "voters for Begich, Stevens, or undecided [in the Senate race only], for McCain."  This is the same as "voters for McCain," since it is the entire sample.  These voters were undecided in the Senate, but decided in the Presidential.

What about this operation was logically unsound?  The answer is, "nothing."


You're not wrong that allocating undecided Presidential voters to either McCain or Obama is incorrect.  You were correct about that.  I have never contested this.

You're wrong in that I have done that at any point, which I haven't.  You continue to assert that I have, but have failed to show where for as many posts.  Considering how simple this concept is mathematically, maybe you shouldn't be throwing around "take a statistics class!" snark so much.

Sunday June 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 40% / 42%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

The question now is: Will John McCain ever take the lead again in the RCP-average ? When will that be the case ? Obama has been ahead or tied since Mid-April now and I don´t think the convention bounce will be bigger than Obama's. Nor do I think that picking a vice-president earlier than Obama will lead to a bounce. I think it would really take a major scandal or gaffe and then a poor debate performance or (god forbid!) terror attack to see McCain overtaking Obama once again ...

Monday June 23, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Currently, Obama and McCain are essentially even among men while the Democrat leads by twelve among women. McCain leads 49% to 42% among White Voters but trails 93% to 3% among African-American voters. Among voters who see economic issues as most important this year, Obama leads 59% to 32%. As for those who view national security issues as most important, McCain leads 59% to 37%.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Hawk - it's 49-43, not 49-42.

Corrected ;)

Scattered across this thread is an ongoing discussion about an effort Alcon made to project the poll results in Alaska from a national poll.

In post #115 on this thread, Alcon opined “Alaska is going to be within a few points (e at most, 1 at least)

In post #118, Mark Warner corrected him by noting that the actual margin was “4 to be correct.”

So farm Alcon’s opining was merely wrong, but it got worse. 

In post #119 stated “I though the extrapolation of 43-41.”

In post #120, I advised Alcon that “extrapolating on survey results is strongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.”

Now, Alcon gets really dishonest.

In post #121 he asserts that “Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey is not frowned upon.”

Remember, in his post #119, Alcon stated, when being advised by Mark Warner of the actual results stated “Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?”

So, he was NOT “extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey”!  At the time Alcon made his guesstimate, he was unaware of the Alaska survey!

Finally, in post #124, Alcon states: “Its not extrapolation.  I was using the wrong phrase.”

Further, in Post #124 Alcon states that what he was taking the preferences by one demographic (gender) in one poll (the national Rasmussen) and projecting it (my term) onto Alaska, while making the minimal adjustment for the slightly greater male component in the Alaska electorate than in the national electorate.

However, in post #132, I tried to advise Alcon (and the thoroughly confused Gustaf) that you cannot validly project a state result from a national result using just one demographic component)!

In post #126 Alcon further notes that “I accidently ignored the break-out of the Undecids.”

However, in the examples which he provided, using “fake” numbers (his term) and arbitrary “assumptions.” (post 126).did allocate undecideds!

Now, there were three basic concepts that were argued in the discussion:

First, the invalidity of “extrapolation,” which Alcon subsequently seems to have acknowledged was invalid.

Second, there is no valid way to allocate undecideds.  Alcon seems to have acknowledged this point.

Third, one cannot validly project from one poll to another the results based on one demographic component.  Anyone who thinks Alcon’s approach is valid should try projecting national results on the District of Columbia using gender, as Alcon did for Alaska!  LOL

The rest of Alcon’s diatribe was mere smoke-screen to try to obscure these points

Yet again, you've completely failed to understand what's going on, CARL.

Rasmussen released the Senate side of a Senate/Presidential poll, with cross-tabs that indicated Presidential support by Senate support.  Using the method I described above, these results correctly predicted McCain +4.  I made the mistake of not including the Presidential preferences of voters undecided in the Senate race, which incorrectly came out to McCain +1-3 (with rounding error leeway).  My conceptual methodology was fine; I just made an arithmetic error.

Calling this an "extrapolation" was incorrect, since it implies I was "assuming" something based on trends or arbitrary allocations.  I was just extracting results that already existed in the poll.

As for:


Where did this BS come from?  I've never said that.  I was using gender as an example of what I'll call a "full-sample subsample set" (FSSS)*, and I haven't even mentioned the Rasmussen national poll.

I really do encourage you to contact the Vorlon, Sam Spade, or any other poll-savvy poster (or one with remotely competent math knowledge), to explain to you that there's nothing wrong with what I did.  The only source of non-human error would be rounding error.

* - Something like male + female, or Begich + Stevens + Undecided, that adds up to 100% of the sample.

First, my apologies on one respect, i.e. I have never seen a pollster release the Senate side of a poll prior to the Presidential side.

It appeared to me that you were projecting from the existing national poll.  Your use of fake numbers and assumptions made what you are now asserting very unclear.

Second, there is still a minor problem, i.e. the hidden assumption that those voting in the Presidential election are the same as those voting in the Senate election.

While the "roll-off" typically is modest (1 to 2%), it can be substantial (watch what happens in Montana this year).

CARLHAYDEN, shut the hell up

Your insanely limited semi-apology is accepted.


It was not unclear.  I explained it four or five times, and you repeatedly misunderstood even the basics of what I was doing, while being snotty about it.

The sample sizes for the Senate and Presidential were the same.  And even if they were different, I'd be producing a poll with a few different respondents, but the same sample size and margin of error.  If there are 500 Presidential responses, it's just as valid as a poll, even if it isn't officially released as the Presidential poll.

Not that it matters; I'm pretty sure that Rasmussen either discards respondents who refuse any answers, or combines these into Undecided or Other -- hence why all of their polls are sample size n=500, even in the Presidential cross-tab of the Senate poll.

I'm going to assume, by "fake numbers and assumptions," you meant "clearly-labeled examples that I didn't understand."  Let me point out that I never mentioned the Rasmussen national poll, and clearly stated what I actually used.  So, you're the only one here that made incorrect extrapolations and fake assumptions.

Tuesday June 24, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

CARLHAYDEN, are you really this thick or just taking the piss?

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Thursday, June 26, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

What an uneventful day!

Friday, June 27, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 45%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind. Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day. Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

Saturday, June 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Sunday June 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Monday, June 30, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Well, congratulations Alcon. I think your point actually ended up getting through.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Thursday, July 3, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)

Saturday, 5 July, 2008

An analysis of Rasmussen Reports data from 15,000 telephone interviews shows that libertarian voters favor Obama over McCain.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of the nation’s voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Twenty percent (20%) are both fiscally and socially moderate. Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters are fiscally moderate and socially liberal. Two groups of voters each include 10% of the voting population—those who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate along with those who are fiscally moderate and socially conservative. Nine percent (9%) are fiscally and socially liberal.

Fiscally conservative / Socially conservative (24%): Obama 13%; McCain 82%

Fiscally moderate / Socially moderate (20%): Obama 59%; McCain 30%

Fiscally moderate / Socially liberal (15%): Obama 80%; McCain 13%

Fiscally conservative / Socially moderate (10%): Obama 25%; McCain 67%

Fiscally moderate / Socially conservative (10%): Obama 40%; McCain 51%

Fiscally liberal / Socially liberal (9%): Obama 91%; McCain 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/libertarians_favor_obama_and_other_looks_at_election_2008

Dave

With the mess the Republicans have made of the budget and national debt in the last 28 years, how on Earth can fiscal conservatives be so pro McCain???

Populists/Social facists favor McCain and libertarians and moderates favor Obama.

07/07/2008:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%

Obama leads by twelve percentage points among women, but trails by three among men. Among White Women, McCain leads by just four percentage points. That’s a much smaller advantage among White Women than George W. Bush enjoyed four years ago.

Overall, McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

Obama - 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable
McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable

The key numbers
Women +12%
Men only -3%
AA +89%
Hispanics +31%

- if this holds out Obama will do well. These are the groups Obama needs to outperform Kerry in markedly to win.

Indeed.  If Obama manages to outperform Kerry markedly in the both the critical group of "Women" and that of "Men Only", I like his chances against McCain :)

July 8, 2008:

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Obama - 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

In other news:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has done a far more effective job than Republican John McCain in recent weeks moving himself to the middle in the minds of voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.

McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.

The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.

The black senator who hates whitey is more moderate than captain Maverick!  Thats unpossible!!!

July 9, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-2, +2)
McCain - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, nc)

Today, at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on the Presidential Race in Missouri. At 3:00 Eastern, data will be released for the Missouri Governor’s race and the New Jersey Senate race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Presidential race in New Jersey.

Well the NJ poll isn't going to be too interesting but I'm looking foward to that MO poll.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Illinois at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, from North Dakota at noon Eastern, and from Wisconsin at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Polling on the North Dakota Governor’s race and the Illinois Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

July 11, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, -1)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Washington at noon Eastern today. At 3:00 p.m., we’ll provide our latest update on the Washington Governor’s race.

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

What I find more disturbing is the fact that they polled Washington once again, instead of - let's say - Indiana ...

it's summer.

Now which would fit me?


or


Dave

Gallup says Obama +6... School's out for summer!

My guess is a 4-6 point national lead for Obama.

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

After a three-point jump in Obama's lead yesterday, there's no way Obama's lead declines more than a point today (given the way tracking polls work), which still doesn't tell us anything.

Just FYI - if there's any movement in these polls going on at present (because there's nothing in the news that should be affecting the numbers), it is probably more about the growth or decline in the enthusiasm of certain groups.

My guess was correct; Gallup shows it a 4 points.  It might be a weekend thing, however.

the obama "move to the center" can alterate enthousiasm amongst his hard-core supporters ?

Sunday, July 13, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural - shouldn't that read domestic - issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama taking a hit on FISA perhaps?

My guess ia that he is taking a definite hit among his base for his "move to the center", bogus as it is.

It will take a few days to determine whether this means much or whether this is just noise.

Statistical noise or not, it is mid July.

Probably no more than 4 points, at most, but we'll have a better idea by midweek.  Obama has tended to do better over weekends, so this a bit troubling for him.

Edit:  Let me clarify.  He's done a bit better in Gallup on weekends.

Monday - July 14, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)

New state polling data will be released each afternoon this week.

Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 45% (-1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

How many days in their tracking poll?

three.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip :P

Dave

Of course Rasmussen will show Hillary Clinton beating MCcain by 20 in Pennsylvania, 15 in Ohio and 10 in Florida ...

I´m really looking forward to these Bush vs. Obama polls. Did they poll Utah ? Or one of the states released yesterday ... ?

My concern is that the hypothetical Clinton vs McCain match-ups could be a distraction :( moving forward through the summer


Now those may be fun :)

Dave

Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release statewide polling data for the Presidential and Senate races in Oregon and Kansas.

Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters.

Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38%.

Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 46% (+1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

Looks like Obama has piled up his national lead in the blue states of California, NY, Illinois, Minn, Washington, and Connecticut if the state polls are to be believed.  McCain must be leading somewhere.

The safely Republican states, perhaps?  :)

most likely in Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, etc...

Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue  states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red  states. If this pattern holds, the purple  battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Dave

No way.  Didn't you get the memo?  Georgia and Indiana are toss ups.

I think this election is looking more like the last two.

I said many  red  states, not every  red  state

Dave

I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

If this is all true, and the blue states are the blowouts that the polls are telling us they are, that begs the question - how is McCain tied or within the margin of error in the national tracking numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen?  Especially when you throw in the supposed closeness of Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas and Obama double digit leads in purple states like Iowa and Wisconsin.  Add in a healthy Quinnipiac lead for Obama in the populous state of Florida.

I'm just saying it doesn't add up.  Someone help me here.

Is McCain up 30 in Texas?  Nope.  I'm hearing just 7 or 8 according to Rasmussen and not the 23 Bush beat Kerry by.

Obama's blowing smoke.  No way he actually offers serious competition in Tennessee and Alabama.

"It doesn't cost anything to look."

you are correct.  It is impossible that every poll conducted this election season is ultimately the exact margin that will occur in the fall.

It is also impossible that all of the polls most favorable to obama can be true in the states, while the tracking polls are also accurate.

Most likely the answers vary from maybe obama's up more than the tracking polls say to maybe some of the red states aren't as close as they are currently polling to maybe some of the swing states are still close even though polls show obama winning handily to some of the blue states obama will likely carry are closer than they are polling or closer than they were last time around... or some combination of the above. 

Maybe a reasonable exercise would be to calculate margins in all 50 states with projected turnout and see where that leads in terms of national vote generally.  I personally don't have the wherewithall or time to do it.  Maybe you could try it yourself.

I guess I want Rasmussen's state polls to be at least somewhat reflective of his national number.  It aint currently happening.  Might be impossible with the whacky summer polling.

I've been doing that for a month. The numbers add up perfectly. Or at least they did till the tracking polls got close recently.

The state polls currently show Obama ahead by 4.37% nationally. Till recently that was his margin in both Gallup and Rasmussen nationally. It could be that state polls suck and that the swing is so recent that the small number of state polls we have seen since then hasn't been enough to shift the national average yet.

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

Take the number of "non-white males" in the sample, get the square root, multiply that by 0.98, then divide by the total number of "non-white males" in the sample, and you'll get the MoE.

I would estimate that the MoE is probably be at least seven per cent, and perhaps as high a sixteen per cent, depending upon subsample size.

Latinos and Asians?

I know a few minority females (Asians) that are for McCain. One of whom would move out of the country if a Black man was ever elected.

OOOh racist asians, now that is a socal speciality isnt it.

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

McCain - 46% (nc)
Obama - 46% (-1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama - 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

For God's sake....

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 53% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 38% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 31% of Democrats.

Among unaffiliated voters, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.

I would certainly say close.

Good riddance.

Interestingly, nationally in tracking polls, the race is tight - but, at this point, Gallup reported a similarly tight race between Reagan and Carter in 1980

The challenge for Obama is to do what Reagan did before him - cross the "acceptability threshold".  Doubts linger with Obama. That much is evident

Nevertheless, the contours between 1980 and 2008, in terms of the macro-environment, are there. The only exception being the incumbent president is not on the ballot

Meanwhile, two things work to McCain's advantage:

1. The fact that McCain, as a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, has a compelling story of heroism to tell, which adds substance to his character

2. The "myth of the maverick" that has been peddled by a media infatuated with McCain has also helped him to attain a standing higher than that of his president or party despite the John McCain of 2008 actually being more like the George W Bush of 2000 than he is the John McCain of 2000, which doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. Not from me anyway

Yes, McCain is, undoubtedly, a more experienced legislator than Obama (given that he's been on Capitol Hill since Adam were a lad that much is indisputable) but when that experience has been aligned with George W Bush, whom the vast majority of Americans disapprove and under whom a clear majority feel the country is on the wrong track, 90% of the time, should it really be good grounds for promotion?

Dave

But also at this point during the sumer, Carter led Ford 62-29.

Each election is special. Historic comparaisons are useless.

You guys were right! This election is over!

Who exactly are "you guys"?  I've heard maybe four people say the election was over, ever, and two of them were pessimistic Republicans.

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)

more like Obama up 1-2% or so, a drop of 2-3% from where the race appeared to be previously.

Looks like the rock star tour bounce has begun.

0-3 points is my guess; in Gallup, there seems to be a weekend upswing for Obama, which should be out by Wednesday.

Monday, July 21, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats

Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Georgia. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Senate races in Georgia and Alaska. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 53% favorable; - % unfavorable (-2, -)

 If McCain wins because of Democrats, I might as well lose all reason to live

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave

More evidence that Hawk has been replaced by a robot.  Mention a political name and it will spit out a pre-formulated assessment!

A robot today, am I? Heck, I was Gore Vidal the other week! .... ;)

Since no one did this today, in the form of Hawk:

---

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 55% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)

Wednesday - July 23, 2008

Obama: 47% (+1)
McCain: 45% (-1)

Favorable Ratings

McCain: 56% favorable - 42% unfavorable (-1, +2)
Obama: 54% favorable - 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)

Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Florida.

New data will be released from polling in Minnesota as well, an update on the Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern and the Presidential numbers at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

So when McCain leads by two points in national polling, can we say that he has a chance at MN, OR, WA and ME?

No, because he won't.

Ha! Ok!

If polls from those states show he does.

Thursday - July 24, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 45% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable (+1)
McCain: 54% favorable (-2)


They seem to have dropped reporting unfavorability, or at least I can't find it.

Friday - July 25, 2008

Obama: 49% (+1)
McCain: 44% (-1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (+1)
McCain: 55% (+1)

Maybe the beginnings of a slight bounce from the Middle East/Europe trip?

Well, according to Rasmussen:

In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.

Dave

Well, it look like people liked it by the polls, but Rasy is funny and may show people hated it so they can get on Fox News again.

Yay, Rasy isn't completely bias, as some might say.

Don't worry, he'll be on Sean Hannity's show tonight flaunting his latest polls about offshore drilling.

He's such a Republican hack.

Gallup at +6... seems like a bounce to me

Saturday - July 26, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 43% (-1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 57% (+1)
McCain: 55% (nc)

With gallup at + 7, and some fairly good state numbers for Obama (- Q poll) we can assume he is back to his June lead for now.

Obama is much more consistently ahead than either Gore or Kerry at this stage, and further ahead. With that in mind, and as those two only lost by a small margin, I'd say it's looking good for Obama to be ahead come election day.

Obama's travel bounce has caused him to have an insurmountable lead over McCain

Stop it.  Stop stop stop.  Don't jinx this.  If McCain surmounts that insurmountable lead it'll be your fault.

John McCain is always at his best when he's trailing by an insurmountable margin.

Sorry, there's no Rudy to implode for him to take all his support in this race.

You know, people say that, and yet, he still lost by a fair bit in 2000 against Bush, and he really only won this year because all his competition 1) self-destructed by themselves or 2) split the conservative vote allowing him to win with a bare plurality.

It was a bit more than that.  ;)

I wouldn't count your chickens just yet, my friend. Any candidate can implode.

I wouldn't even say "implode."  5-7 points isn't a lot and Obama has had a lot of good press this week.

Sunday - July 27, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 44% (+1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (-1)
McCain: 55% (nc)

;)

Monday, July 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 56% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (nc, +2)

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Interesting.

The last time McCain was making it this close in the Rasmussen tracking poll (pre-Obama world tour), his favorability ratings were really high (like 58, 59% IIRC).  Now, they're lower than Obama, but he's still making it close, meaning that people who don't necessarily like him could start to gravitate towards him because of a dislike for Obama.  Of course, it probably means nothing.

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

Only in Bizarro World where Kerry won and Mypalfish is Secretary of State.

That's a good point.  If the sample is 25% non-white, Obama would have to be leading by a barely 3:2 margin among non-whites.  Kerry's margin was more like 5:2, even in the ill-adjusted exit poll.


That, on the other hand, is not a good point!


And that is not a good joke!

It´s really freaking me out, after running through his numbers on the calculator:

Let´s assume a very pessimistic sample for Obama:

80% Whites: Obama @ 44% support
9% African Americans: Obama @ 92% support

With these numbers alone, Obama receives a minimum of 43.5%.

9% Hispanics
2% Others

To get 47% overall, he would have to get only 1/3 (!!!) of Hispanics and Asians. Last time I checked, Obama got more than 60% in every poll (Rasmussen and Gallup) ...

Let me suggest a slightly different breakdown by race/ethnicity:

Race/ethnicity                    % of Voters                    Percentage for Obama                    % of Voters

White (nonhispanic)               76                                         41                                             31.16

Black (nonhispanic)                12                                         95                                             11.40

Hispanic (all races)                   8                                         67                                               5.36

Asian (nonhispanic)                  2                                         56                                               1.12

All others (nonhispanic)            2                                         56                                               1.12

Total                                     100                                                              50.16

That's a realistic breakdown, but doesn't help us reconcile the poll at all.

Let me repeat a point I made a few days ago.

Rasmussen is improperly pushing leaners, who really aren't leaners.

So, Obama does NOT have the support of 44 % of whites and McCain does NOT have the support of 50 % of whites.

So, you called and found out what leaner method they're using?  What is it?  :)

They're actually redistributing all of Barr's support to Obama and McCain in a massive conspiracy to elect a pro-amnesty President.

Rasmussen has had a problem in this department for some time now

Wednesday - July 30, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 46% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, -2)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi.

At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.

Fingers crossed guys!!!

Probably still within that 0-3 point range, which is a surprise (to me at least).

It won´t be close. Yesterday they mentioned Birch Bayh in one of their releases ... :P

Noticed that. Evan is, of course, Birch Evans Bayh III

Yay Montana!

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

Are those the real numbers or your predictions?

Wait until 5PM ... :)

1.  Do we have today's numbers?

2.  Is it possible to sticky the tracking polls?

July 31

McCain 43%
   
Obama 45%
   
With Leaners:

McCain 46%

Obama 48%

No change.

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 21% name national security issues. Twelve percent (12%) say that domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care are the highest priority, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government while 5% focus primarily on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.

As with everything in a political election season, there is a partisan divide on priorities. Among Democrats, 53% say the economy is most important, 17% name domestic issues as their primary concern, and 14% say national security. For Republicans, 35% focus first on national security, 31% on the economy, and 14% on fiscal issues. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 51% say the economy is number one and 16% say the top issue is national security.

Obama leads by 19 points among those who say economic issues are most important while McCain leads by 39 among national security voters. Obama also leads among those focused on domestic issues while McCain leads among those whose top priority is fiscal issues or cultural issues.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (+1, -2)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

 Would Obama be any more thought of if he took the low road?

At noon Eastern Time today, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers on the Texas Senate will be released.

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

This race is over. Where did the McCain campaign go wrong?

Hawk - with leaners it's 47-46, not 47-45.

Corrected

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's nothing short of disgusting that he appears more well thought of for having done so

Dave

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's disgusting >:( that he appears more well approved of for having done so

Dave

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

I'll aask it again? What will happen to the GOP if Obama wins by the landslide proportions he is currently polling at? This has to be bad news for McCain.

E-Mail I got from Rasmussen:

"We’re not sure where you saw the reference to McCain leading 50% to 44% among White Voters. But, that would have been a typo. If it’s still on the site, please send me the URL so we can fix it. Today, McCain leads 55% to 37% among White Voters. Thank you for your interest in our work, Scott Rasmussen."

Of course they changed it to a 54-40 White lead for McCain now, because 50-44 would have been ridiculous ...

Actually, they could the motto any loosing candidate.

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him.

that's a bit of a stretch now, isn't it?  the race has been up and down with obama up from 1-8 pts or so for a couple of months.  from that you infer that the more they see of obama the less they like him.  I suspect you are seeing what you want to see.

Better possibility is the negative ads have been impactful.

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative attack, attack, attack breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. Something profoundly wrong there. If any one deserves to be reviled it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smear that was peddled against him in South Carolina, 2000

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter - and I've no intention of reiterating further

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if you can't take it you shouldn't dish it out

Dave

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative personal attack, attack, attack campaign breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. If any one deserves to be disliked it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smears that were peddled against him in 2000

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if he can't take it then he shouldn't dish it out

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter

Dave

About 10,000 times.

If only that were true.

Oh, McCain has.  This is experience versus Obama.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.

Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters, Michelle Obama by 46%.

 No comment. I'm depressed enough

Hey, I'd rather be ahead than not. :p

True, but it's more McCain's favorables where I object ;)

Only viewed favorably by 50% of Indies? That will spell trouble come November as the Democrats Party ID advantage is decresing.

I sometimes wonder if many Independents nowadays are former Republicans

As for the polls, I'm putting more faith in the Electoral Barometer. Designed by political scientist Alan Abramowitz, it has predicted with accuracy the winner of the popular vote in all but one of the last 15 presidential elections; 1968 being the exception. It weighs together three factors:

1. The improval rating of the incumbent president
2. The economy's growth rate
3. Whether the president's party has controlled the White House for two-terms (the "time for change factor")

This formula gives the Republican candidate (McCain) -60, second only to that of Carter's -62, IIRC, in 1980 (and we know what happened to him). It may well have ticked a little towards McCain, giving that the economy grew by 1.9% in the 2nd quarter (up from 1.0% in the 1st)

Dave

Sunday, August 3, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (nc, +1)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (+2, nc)

McCain earns positive reviews from 85% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 83% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 61% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 47%.

Those favorability ratings are troublesome news for Obama.

Not really, since Democrats have a significant numbers advantage. A lot of "independents" are just embarrassed Republicans anyway.

That "significant numbers advantage" is shrinking.

How can that significant numbers be declining?  Please explain.  Oh you were talking about yourself.

I know this isn't the thread for it, but Lief's new signature looks like a cut scene from Avenue Q.  Just thought I'd throw that out there.

With the exception of the drilling debate, in almost all issue polls for the last several years, most independents have behaved much more like Democrats. If McCain's conservative pro-Bush record were to come out, there is no reason to expect that they would be more favorable toward him.

According to Rasmussen the party ID advantage is down to D +7.6. It was D +9.5 in June and D +10.1 in May.

Monday, August 4, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 51% favorable; - 46% unfavorable (-4, +2)

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal.

Haha, thats funny, I can't wait until after Aug. Also Obama I believe that Obama will tell us this week who his VP is, in hopes that it will bump his numbers.

As the worm turns...

Worm being very apt (slimey things) and John McCain is a slimeball if nothing else

Hawk, I don't know why you continue to degrade yourself with simple partisan musings.  It's below you.  I really haven't said much on this before, but it's not particularly enlightening nor informative nor really very nice.

"As the worm turns..." There is a reference I am missing, or is this a case of pot and kettle?

I was having fun.  Hawk is taking me too seriously.

It's early August.

The fact that Obama is only at 47% favorable amongst indies isn't good.  Especially interesting in light of all the tongue baths he has gotten from the MSM.

Again though, it's only August.  People aren't tuned in yet and won't be until after the conventions.

Plus this election cycle Rasy has had a slight lean toward the GOP. The only thing we really know is it is close for now... Thanks to the slimball McCain and his attack ads he said he wouldn't do. Ah gotta love them Republicans.

:)

When did McCain say he wouldn't run negative ads?  I believe he said he would run a "civil" campaign.  That Democrats think a stupid ad comparing Obama to Britney Spears and Paris Hilton is "horrible" and "appalling" just shows how much it gets under their skin.

In fact, I would say that Obama, pulling the race card, is the real "slimeball".

Anyway, even if McCain said he wouldn't run any negative ads (btw, these ads are hardly negative.  Have you people been living under a rock?) - Obama also pledged to take public financing in the general.  He lied.  Tit for tat.  Only your tit is greater than our tat.

I don't consider what McCain is doing to Obama very nice. It's disgusting. And what makes it worse, judging by those approvals, is that he appears to be getting away with it. When John McCain starts waging an honorable, civil and dignified campaign, I'll cut him some slack. Fair is fair :)

Dave

How did Obama pull the race card? What he said was ture and has already happen! The fact is McCain said he wouldn't pull the same crap Bush did to him in 2000, but yet he is. And what makes me upset is he is getting away with it. He lies and the media don't talk about it, but if Obama makes one mistake its all over the news. If America wants this country to be more ed up then it is already at then fine go ahead and vote that loser in. But mark my words, if McCain does win, America at the end of his term(if he lives that long) will no longer be a world power.

All the negative media attention that Barack Obama has received... and he is still tied with McCain?

Or maybe it's just stupid. People have come over the years to associate Spears and Hilton with the ultimate brainless blonde, clueless stereotype, not someone who has a degree in law from Harvard & debates toe to toe with Senators like Biden and Clinton on national issues.


Actually, if you think about the race "issue" in general, it only ever benefits McCain. Obama has no incentive to bring race into the discussion except defensively. Even last week, he was responding to an online McCain ad mocking his picture on currency.


I don't know what a big tat is, but I'm pretty sure if his tit is bigger, he either has a hormone imbalance or it's a pretty small tat. :) But no, the ads aren't exceedingly negative, mostly vapid.

Obama has nothing to gain whatsoever by pulling the race card and you know it. So I'm not standing for any of that nonsense. The race "issue" is not something that is going to help Obama

I do, of course, recall the North Carolina GOP ran ads featuring the Rev. Jeremiah Wright in the run-up to the Democratic primary. I don't think that was intended to help Obama, do you?

When it comes to Barack H. Obama, the simple truth is that he is not a 'race' politician. When Rep. Bobby Rush spanked Obama when he challenged him in his districts Democratic primary, Rush explained his victory this way: "I'm a race politician, and he's not" [Morning Edition, National Public Radio, February 28, 2007]

Dave

The saddest thing is that Obama could say "vote for me because if you don't, you're a racist" and Dave would say he didn't play the race card. It's so obvious to see that when someone keeps reminding voters that he's different than everyone else running, he's playing the race card. No, he doesn't have anything to gain by playing it as he already had 99% of the black vote, but he's shown in the past in his writings that he has no problem playing it.

What evidence do you have for that?  I'm not trying to pin you down, I'm just curious.

Probably a close race, Obama erosion, and I'd probably give the edge to to McCain, for today at least.

Compaired with other national polls Rasy has always been more friendly to McCain, but I did say slight lean.

Gallup disagrees

Or he's trying to confront what could otherwise be a major underground liability head on by talking about how absurd it is to vote on its basis.


More likely the media playing the Clinton-hate/everything they do must have an evil motive card, something the right has plenty of experience doing. :P

I think the attack ads are working.  Even though it is wrong we still cannot engage is harsh attack ads and lower ourselves to that sad standard.