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Election Archive => 2008 Elections => Topic started by: nclib on June 05, 2008, 05:54:01 pm



Title: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on June 05, 2008, 05:54:01 pm
i.e. metro area - central city

Boston, San Francisco, NYC, DC, Philly...

can anyone think of others?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Aizen on June 05, 2008, 05:56:26 pm
Decent chance of Denver


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Ban my account ffs! on June 05, 2008, 05:58:19 pm
He'll carry most suburbs surrounding the Twin Cities, but he likely won't win the exurbs in the western and southwestern metro area.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2008, 05:58:29 pm
That plus:

Seattle
Chicago
Baltimore
Portland, OR

I'm not willing to go past the 30 biggest :P


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Boris on June 05, 2008, 06:00:20 pm
Detroit, maybe? Dunno how their suburban layout is, but Kerry either won or barely lost the surrounding counties. And assuming a somewhat uniform national swing towards Obama....


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ottermax on June 05, 2008, 06:12:28 pm
What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on June 05, 2008, 06:25:48 pm
Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ottermax on June 05, 2008, 06:27:58 pm
Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

That's my problem. The LA suburbs in the county should mostly vote for Obama, but OC won't. Also, San Diego city should vote for Obama, but most of the "city" is a suburb.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on June 05, 2008, 06:45:54 pm
Too Early To Tell. With a few exceptions. Obviously.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on June 05, 2008, 07:06:55 pm
Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

That's my problem. The LA suburbs in the county should mostly vote for Obama, but OC won't. Also, San Diego city should vote for Obama, but most of the "city" is a suburb.

Yeah everyone lives in suburbs here..especially in southern california.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on June 05, 2008, 07:30:51 pm

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Torie on June 05, 2008, 07:33:13 pm
Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

The San Fernando Valley is part of the city of LA. The number of GOP towns in LA county is getting shockingly thin (so many old GOP standbys of my relative  youth, like South Pasadena, Glendale, Arcadia, Whittier, Long Beach, the beach cities,  are gone, gone, gone, sob!), but if you define LA suburbs as including Orange County, and Riverside and San Bernadino Counties, then the GOP is in the hunt to carry it overall.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Alcon on June 05, 2008, 07:39:00 pm

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.

Kerry won the Cook County suburbs:

Kerry 594,928 (58.9%)
Bush 407,867 (40.4%)
Other 6,942 (0.7%)

Bush's margin in the collar counties was only a little over 100,000, about half than what he needed, and less than he'll likely need in 2008.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sam Spade on June 05, 2008, 07:40:04 pm
Without an effective definition of what "suburbs" are for each of these places, this thread almost useless.  I mean, you can predict that Obama's not going to carry the Houston suburbs using any realistic measurement of that, but a lot of these depend on what they are.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on June 05, 2008, 07:52:58 pm
Working class suburbs in LA will vote for Obama. How is the San fernando valley classified because it will vote for Obama too.

The San Fernando Valley is part of the city of LA. The number of GOP towns in LA county is getting shockingly thin (so many old GOP standbys of my relative  youth, like South Pasadena, Glendale, Arcadia, Whittier, Long Beach, the beach cities,  are gone, gone, gone, sob!), but if you define LA suburbs as including Orange County, and Riverside and San Bernadino Counties, then the GOP is in the hunt to carry it overall.

Well you guys will always have Santa Clarita. :) Perhaps you guys can convince more chinese to vote GOP. That is the key to win the san gabriel valley region of LA county, the only part of the county the GOP even has a chance in. The rest of the county is too hispanic. Now if they suddenly started voting like OC hispanics, you guys might be in business.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Torie on June 05, 2008, 07:56:03 pm

The home state bounce might be enough to push Obama over the top, but I think Bush carried every county in the Chicago metro other than Cook, though I'm not sure how the Cook County suburbs voted.

Kerry won the Cook County suburbs:

Kerry 594,928 (58.9%)
Bush 407,867 (40.4%)
Other 6,942 (0.7%)

Bush's margin in the collar counties was only a little over 100,000, about half than what he needed, and less than he'll likely need in 2008.

The demise of the Republican in the Chicago suburbs over the past 15 years or so has just been shocking. If someone has predicted 15 years ago what in fact happened, I would have thought they were some Dem hack on crack.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on June 05, 2008, 08:05:53 pm
Without an effective definition of what "suburbs" are for each of these places, this thread almost useless.

I clarified in the first post:


Though I would imagine some metro areas would be a bit more complicated if the metro has two central cities (ex. Minneapolis/St.Paul) or those with overlapping areas (ex. WDC/Balt).


If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: J. J. on June 05, 2008, 08:36:06 pm
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Albus Dumbledore on June 05, 2008, 08:36:33 pm
I'd rule out most suburbs in the northeast/great lakes.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: phk on June 05, 2008, 08:45:45 pm
He'll win the Bay Area ones, LA County LA suburbs.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Torie on June 05, 2008, 09:18:03 pm
He'll win the Bay Area ones, LA County LA suburbs.

Bush was slaughtered in both, so I think your opinion here is well, incontrovertible. :(


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on June 05, 2008, 11:28:41 pm

If St. Paul also qualifies as a center city, BRTD calculated a while back that the Twin Cities suburbs voted for Bush, or perhaps do you think that area would swing towards Obama?

Yes, Bush won the Twin Cities metro area minus Minneapolis and St. Paul. Though it was close enough to swing if Obama has a major swing in Minnesota.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Bogart on June 05, 2008, 11:56:01 pm
Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on June 06, 2008, 12:25:05 am
Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison

Obama is NOT winning the Milwaukee suburbs. No chance.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Alcon on June 06, 2008, 12:26:24 am
Sorry if I missed it, but I scanned quickly. Also, in WI which will be a swing state, Obama wins big in Milwaukee & Madison

Obama is NOT winning the Milwaukee suburbs. No chance.

Kerry didn't even win Milwaukee County outside of Milwaukee city.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: cp on June 06, 2008, 12:21:12 pm
What a ridiculous thread.

I assume what you meant to ask is, 'Of which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs?"

;)


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on June 07, 2008, 07:43:02 pm
I looked up the Detroit metro area and Kerry did win the metro vote outside of Detroit. This somewhat surprised me since I didn't think it had a sizable minority population or was socially liberal, especially given that Ann Arbor (Washtenaw) is not in Detroit metro.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on January 02, 2009, 10:51:02 pm
bump

Most of those mentioned, and perhaps Miami and/or Orlando.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 02, 2009, 10:59:53 pm
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Tyrion The Unbanned on January 02, 2009, 11:04:22 pm
What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




San Jose suburbs are part of the Bay Area


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Alcon on January 02, 2009, 11:34:36 pm
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


As much as I appreciate the Pavement binge, stop being a creeper.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 03, 2009, 12:49:31 am
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


As much as I appreciate the Pavement binge, stop being a creeper.

I didn't bump this thread. It was bumped and I just noticed it.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: NOVA Green on January 03, 2009, 03:51:33 am
Portland, Oregon

According to my precinct breakdowns:

Clackamas 68% of county is metro with the remaining 32% rural, small town, or exurban on large plots.

Metro ( 58-40 Obama)
Rural, small town, exurban rural (51-46 McCain)

Washington  92% of county is metro... with a large chunk of unincorporated regions.

Metro (61-37 Obama)
Non Urban (52-45 McCain)

This includes landslide victories for Obama in many of the wealthiest suburban communities in the state! This is a major change for the Democratic Party in Oregon and his coattails in metro-Portland (even though Smith won many key wealthy suburban communities) helped Merkley eke out a narrow win here.

Note that I am not including areas of Multnomah county since the overwhelming majority of the county is the city of Portland.... I can always post Gresham percentages, but I think that this would not fit any standard of "suburban" in the traditional sense.



Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Brittain33 on January 03, 2009, 10:09:39 am
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Delco: +21%
Montco: +20%
Chester: +9%
Bucks: +8.6%


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: memphis on January 03, 2009, 11:22:02 am
Philly suburbs were never in play, in June, or at any other point. Taken as a whole, they are reliably Dem.  I confidently predict today that Obama will win them again in 2012.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2009, 12:38:06 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Jefferson and St Charles Parishes will save JBE on January 03, 2009, 12:39:10 pm
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

LOL. This guy's track record is just awesome.


lol, he is just saying that stuff to get attention. Believe me, this troll can sniff out other closested trolls.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 03, 2009, 12:46:43 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2009, 12:54:44 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 03, 2009, 01:00:28 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.

And analysts are full of crap. See Dick Morris. I remember even you saying McCain had no chance in MontCo.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 03, 2009, 01:10:08 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it
Because one, "ah lol, JJ said it here as well" post is "making an issue out of it"?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Brittain33 on January 03, 2009, 01:39:55 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

It's a little childish--and I've generally avoided piling on J.J. for several months--but it also shows the danger of making really bold, unsupported predictions in the face of conflicting evidence that includes 15+ years of Democratic trending and voting plus the sharp unpopularity of the incumbent party. If the Philly suburbs were "iffy", then McCain is winning Pennsylvania widely (given Obama's known weaknesses out west) and the country by a sizable margin. That wasn't particularly reasonable in June. 2010 is coming up and soon we'll be in another cycle of people arguing their guts and their wish lists for competitiveness and refusing to take no for an answer.

If Obama had won the suburbs of Philly narrowly, then that would be something, but this is different.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2009, 04:02:13 pm
Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it and then ask yourself if you're really surprised. And it's always easily justified! "I was right all along. They never were in play." They love that Monday morning quarterbacking...until they make a bad call.

There was never any reason to believe Obama would lose suburban Philly based on polling (even if McCain was slightly ahead that would still equal a victory for Obama) or the double digit swings in them that would be necessary to win them (Except for Bucks). Even you weren't predicting that when you predicted a McCain victory in the state. Of course J. J.'s logic was probably completely on the whole idea that everyone who voted for Hillary in the primary would vote for McCain, remember how he talked about Obama had a huge problem in MontCo? Even you admitted that was ridiculous and that Obama would win MontCo in a walk.

Early on, many people expected those counties to be fairly close. Plenty of analysts spoke about the Philly suburbs as a swing area. Stop being disingenuous.

And analysts are full of crap. See Dick Morris. I remember even you saying McCain had no chance in MontCo.

Yes, because all analysts are like Dick Morris. No one is as brilliant as you are, BRTD!

Oh come on, J.J.'s comment was in JUNE, a lot of places were still up in the air, especially suburbs.  I hate this stupid after-the-fact crap, it's so childish.

Take a look at whose making an issue out of it
Because one, "ah lol, JJ said it here as well" post is "making an issue out of it"?

One? Really?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 03, 2009, 04:06:34 pm
One in this thread, until you (and Alcon before, although under the wrong assumption that Red had bumped the thread.) made an issue out of it. We're talking a throwaway "lol, here too" comment - It takes a hissy to throw a hissy fit over that. (shrugs) (won't be available for further comment as this is really not worth arguing about.)


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2009, 04:11:15 pm
One in this thread, until you (and Alcon before, although under the wrong assumption that Red had bumped the thread.) made an issue out of it. We're talking a throwaway "lol, here too" comment - It takes a hissy to throw a hissy fit over that. (shrugs) (won't be available for further comment as this is really not worth arguing about.)

I count more than one (BRTD, memphis and brittain) comment that basically dismisses any idea of the Philly suburbs being in play as foolish but whatever, friend.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 03, 2009, 04:28:51 pm
You're right in that your original comment was aimed at several people. (yah, I came back admit that. :) ) But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit. (Oh, and the notion could be pretty safely dismissed... outside of a Republican landslide or near-landslide win. And that, in turn could be pretty safely dismissed as well outside maybe Bush and Cheney both dying in office before August 31st.)
Of course BRTD then talked back at you and you talked back at him and... oh, it's just so dreary and predictable sometimes.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 03, 2009, 04:31:41 pm
But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit.

The only thing worse than a hissy fit is when people assume you're throwing one but, again, whatever.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 03, 2009, 04:32:33 pm
But, well, the others involved were even less deserving of your hissy fit.

The only thing worse than a hissy fit is when people assume you're throwing one but, again, whatever.
Heh, maybe.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 03, 2009, 05:22:00 pm
Too Early To Tell. With a few exceptions. Obviously.

u R so rItE!!!1111


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ottermax on January 03, 2009, 05:25:43 pm
What constitutes the suburbs? Depending on the definitions, NYC, Philly, and LA could have suburbs voting for Obama. Here's my list of the top metro areas:

NYC: maybe
LA: no
Chicago: yes
Dallas: no
Philly: maybe
Houston: no
Miami: no
DC: yes
Atlanta: no
Boston: maybe
Detroit: yes
Bay Area: yes
Phoenix: no
Riverside (how is this an MSA larger than Seattle!?): no
Seattle: yes
Minneapolis: yes
San Diego: no
St. Louis: maybe
Tampa: no
Baltimore: yes
Denver: maybe
Pittsburgh: no
Portland: yes
Cincinnati: definitely not
Cleveland: no
Sacramento: no
Orlando: no
San Antonio: no
Kansas City: maybe??
Las Vegas: maybe??

The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.




San Jose suburbs are part of the Bay Area

I agree with you. I just took the list of the 60 largest MSAs in the country and put them there. I personally think that Riverside is part of LA and San Jose is part of the San Francisco-Oakland MSA (which I mistakenly called the Bay Area) but the census doesn't...


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ottermax on January 03, 2009, 06:07:42 pm
Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.

NYC: Obama
LA: Obama
Chicago: Obama
Dallas: McCain
Philly: Obama
Houston: McCain
Miami: Obama (I forgot that the suburbs are more Democratic because of the Cuban vote)
DC: Obama
Atlanta: McCain
Boston: Obama
Detroit: Obama
San Francisco-Oakland: Obama
Phoenix: McCain
Riverside: Obama (big surprise, although close)
Seattle: Obama
Minneapolis: McCain (another surprise... I never realized the split here)
San Diego: Not Sure, but probably Obama (depends on definition of suburb I'll have to wait until CA release city data)
St. Louis: Probably Obama
Tampa: Probably McCain
Baltimore: Probably Obama
Denver: Obama
Pittsburgh: McCain
Portland: Obama
Cincinnati: McCain
Cleveland: Obama
Sacramento: Probably Obama
Orlando: Obama (a huge surprise)
San Antonio: McCain
Kansas City: McCain
Las Vegas: Obama

Feedback would be great! My results look too good for Obama, but he did astonishingly well in many suburbs in large metro areas. However he did horribly in small towns, so there is some balance.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Brittain33 on January 03, 2009, 07:04:21 pm
Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ottermax on January 03, 2009, 08:56:37 pm
Here's my estimate of the top 30 MSAs' suburbs vote.
St. Louis: Probably Obama

St. Louis County was 59%-39% Obama; St. Charles with 1/3 the vote was McCain 54%-45%. Pretty solid Obama.

Quote
Baltimore: Probably Obama

Yeah. Baltimore County was solid for Obama. Frederick County, strong for Obama, mirrors Harford County, strong for McCain. Carroll County was strong for McCain but much smaller than Baltimore County.

Everything else looks good.

My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Matt Damon™ on January 03, 2009, 08:59:02 pm
Are we like going to see every old thread bumped?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 03, 2009, 11:58:39 pm
I don't know why Phil is so sensitive here, it's not like he's the one who blew the prediction. I remember him even admitting McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs and arguing against it. It also should be obvious that McCain wasn't going to get the double digit win in Pennsylvania (and likely nationwide) at any point to do so.

Also, based on other posts J. J. has made, its obvious his argument is based solely on the primary, which is pretty asinine (even Phil has admitted it was really dumb to say Obama was in trouble in MontCo, and go compare Lackawanna primary vs. general for an example of how overrated that is.)


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2009, 12:00:34 am
I don't know why Phil is so sensitive here, it's not like he's the one who blew the prediction.

Because you're being ridiculously unfair and you've done it to me before. Get over it.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 04, 2009, 12:02:01 am
Why did even you argue McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs then?

I also note you ignored the point about the primary.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on January 04, 2009, 12:03:30 am
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Another terrific J.J prediction. Keep it up, bro!


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2009, 12:05:02 am
Why did even you argue McCain wouldn't win the Philly suburbs then?

...because I didn't think he'd win there. That doesn't mean that I have to harp on it and rub it in J.J.'s face.

Quote
I also note you ignored the point about the primary.

I don't know what I'm supposed to comment on. I said J.J.'s reasoning was weak. Don't know why I have to address it again. Oh, I know why. It's because you like hearing things over and over and over and over...


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 04, 2009, 12:11:22 am
OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2009, 12:21:33 am
OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

I honestly believe that you have some sort of mental disorder in which you constantly need to hear that you're "right" and that others agree with you. You go as far as to blantantly lie about what people say in order to make it seem like we're in agreement.

No, I didn't say that J.J. is a horrible analyst. I said he was wrong about some things. Stop lying and saying that I've admitted something that I've never admitted.

I defend him because you're a major league douchebag and you feel the need to harp on being "right."

You're a sad, sad person, Zach. Very sad.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 04, 2009, 12:24:06 am
NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.

Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

I honestly believe that you have some sort of mental disorder in which you constantly need to hear that you're "right" and that others agree with you. You go as far as to blantantly lie about what people say in order to make it seem like we're in agreement.

No, I didn't say that J.J. is a horrible analyst. I said he was wrong about some things. Stop lying and saying that I've admitted something that I've never admitted.

I defend him because you're a major league douchebag and you feel the need to harp on being "right."

You're a sad, sad person, Zach. Very sad.

"Some" things? Try almost everything.

And if he wasn't an arrogant asshole to everyone who called him on his crap it wouldn't be like this. DWTL has made plenty of comparable idiotic predictions but you don't see him constantly hassled over it. Nor is it just me constantly picking on J. J.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2009, 12:26:08 am
If picking on J.J. makes you proud of yourself and gives you so much pleasure, you're in desperate need of our prayers.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: ChrisFromNJ on January 04, 2009, 12:26:51 am

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event. 

It's not 'EVERY' poster - it's one poster, J.J, and he's chronically wrong. There comes a point where there is only so much BS you can spew under the facade of being knowledgeable, and J.J has exceeded that breaking point. He deserves to be called out.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 04, 2009, 12:41:03 am
NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Keystone Phil on January 04, 2009, 12:59:02 am

NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event. 

It's not 'EVERY' poster - it's one poster, J.J, and he's chronically wrong. There comes a point where there is only so much BS you can spew under the facade of being knowledgeable, and J.J has exceeded that breaking point. He deserves to be called out.

And this has been done for months now.

BRTD has an illness. This is beyond obvious. He obsesses over this stuff. He constantly needs to hear how he was right and the people he hates are wrong.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 04, 2009, 01:32:22 am
NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.

Well?

And as Phil has even stated in this thread, I'm not the only one ripping on J. J. I count at least three others.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on January 04, 2009, 08:33:41 am
OK fine so you basically agree with me that J. J. is a horrible analyst. You've also admitted this in the past. So why keep up the constant defense of him?

Same reason you keep up the constant dwelling on it maybe?
This sounds accurate. :)
NO ONE cares about your stupid vendettas with EVERY poster about completely reasonable wrong predictions from ridiculous periods of time before the event.  This one is nothing compared with the countless idiotic dwellings on singular comments from months or years ago.
Is the quote my sig a "completely reasonable" prediction?

Yes, in MAY.

Obama doing worse than basically every single candidate ever in modern history (including McGovern, Goldwater, Landon, Hoover, Cox, etc.) is a reasonable prediction at any point?

Alcon did the math, that would equal McCain getting over 70%. That was NOT reasonable in May or any month.
It was of course completely unreasonable in May as well. So? Really man. Stop the gloating.
Obviously Dems now have a tad more reason to gloat than Reps had in 2004 (bigger win, much bigger swing, and ooh yes you people did) but that doesn't make it right.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Alcon on January 04, 2009, 12:25:45 pm
BRTD, it was an unreasonable prediction.  It was an unreasonable prediction in May.  It was an unreasonable prediction in 2006.

It's stupid that he won't own up to it.

It's stupid that he won't reform his predictions accordingly.

But you should criticize his current predictions on their merit (or lack thereof) instead of mining the archives like this.

Why?  Because it makes it seem like you can't articulate a current criticism of his ideas and have to attack the messenger.  Which is, by the way, a logical fallacy.

And it's creepy.

Quit it, or stop using my work product to justify it ;).


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Brittain33 on January 04, 2009, 01:09:23 pm

My problem is that the MSAs include some counties that are far from their central cities like Queen Anne County across Cheasepeake Bay from Maryland. But by conventional meanings of suburbs, Baltimore's did vote for Obama.

Yes, it's true... it doesn't concern me because many of these counties have 10% or less of the votes of the central suburban counties and McCain didn't win by a big margin, so I felt comfortable saying they didn't make a big difference. If the exurbs of Baltimore voted like the exurbs of Dallas, that would be another matter.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Verily on January 05, 2009, 07:20:04 pm
The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.

Richmond suburbs probably did not vote for Obama. Didn't do the math, but that MSA is quite large.

But some of the other top-60 MSAs did. All three in Connecticut (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven suburbs), Albany suburbs, possibly Albuquerque suburbs, maybe the Hampton Roads suburbs depending on how they're defined (which is tough given that the area is mostly independent cities, but some of the independent cities are really big geographically). And, I haven't done the math, but the Raleigh (!) suburbs may have voted for Obama. Certainly they were within single-digits. (Of course, the Research Triangle suburbs all together clearly voted for Obama, but Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary are different MSAs.)


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 05, 2009, 07:35:53 pm
Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on January 05, 2009, 07:40:26 pm
Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.

He sure as hell didn't win it minus Austin though.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Lief 🐋 on January 05, 2009, 07:41:19 pm
Obama won the Austin metro area pretty comfortably, which is 37th, if I remember correctly. Not really surprising though, since Bush barely won it.

He sure as hell didn't win it minus Austin though.
Ah, yeah. Nevermind. :P


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on April 12, 2009, 11:32:35 am
bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on April 12, 2009, 02:18:23 pm
bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on April 12, 2009, 08:55:35 pm
bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/contents.htm) , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on April 13, 2009, 10:53:22 am
bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/contents.htm) , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

Ahh I see. Of course the city of San Diego contains a lot of areas that are basically suburban and very similar to the suburbs surrounding it. If we consider those places to be in the suburban category as well, then I think we would find that Obama carried the suburbs narrowly.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: minionofmidas - supplemental forum account on April 13, 2009, 02:50:05 pm
I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Sbane on April 13, 2009, 04:01:47 pm
I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.

No I think it is sufficient. I would actually remove Yolo from the list since Davis is certainly not a suburb of Sacramento. West Sacramento obviously is though. And El dorado county contains a lot of the Lake Tahoe population which is also not a part of the Sacramento area. So I think we can safely say that Obama carried the Sacramento metropolitan area.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Verily on April 13, 2009, 06:22:14 pm
I'm sure the Sac metro is way larger even according to the official definition, rendering the point moot, but I was surprised to notice Obama won Sacramento County minus Sacramento city.

No I think it is sufficient. I would actually remove Yolo from the list since Davis is certainly not a suburb of Sacramento. West Sacramento obviously is though. And El dorado county contains a lot of the Lake Tahoe population which is also not a part of the Sacramento area. So I think we can safely say that Obama carried the Sacramento metropolitan area.

Davis certainly is a suburb of Sacramento. It has a lot of other things going on with UC Davis, but I know at the least my first cousin once removed and her husband live there, and she works in Sacramento. (He has some minor political position in Yolo County.) And it's more or less continuously developed along I-80 with just small gaps of farmland which can't be developed because it floods every year.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on April 21, 2009, 09:53:49 pm
The rest of the top 60 except San Jose, Richmond, and Honolulu will not vote for Obama.

Richmond suburbs probably did not vote for Obama. Didn't do the math, but that MSA is quite large.

Correct.

But some of the other top-60 MSAs did. All three in Connecticut (Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven suburbs), Albany suburbs, possibly Albuquerque suburbs, maybe the Hampton Roads suburbs depending on how they're defined (which is tough given that the area is mostly independent cities, but some of the independent cities are really big geographically). And, I haven't done the math, but the Raleigh (!) suburbs may have voted for Obama. Certainly they were within single-digits. (Of course, the Research Triangle suburbs all together clearly voted for Obama, but Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary are different MSAs.)

Certainly Providence, RI did. It's worth checking Columbus (OH), Buffalo (NY) and Rochester (NY).


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on April 27, 2009, 03:13:13 pm
Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: TeePee4Prez on April 28, 2009, 12:51:42 am
The Philly 'burbs are questionable.

Another terrific J.J prediction. Keep it up, bro!

Gotta admit, that one was funny as hell.  Montgomery, PA= Obama+20.8, Delaware, PA= Obama+21.4, Chester, PA=Obama+9.2 (Dems last win was LBJ in 1964), Bucks, PA= Obama+8.6, Burlington, NJ= Obama+18.6, Camden, NJ(def went for BO minus Camden city)=Obama+36.1, Gloucester, NJ=Obama+12.1.  Of those Bucks probably has the highest element of urban white populism so that result kinda made sense.   


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: The love that set me free on April 28, 2009, 01:01:21 am
The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: Erc on April 28, 2009, 09:11:01 am
bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/contents.htm) , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

There are plenty of places that are definitely "suburbs of San Diego" by any reasonable definition but which are technically in the city of San Diego proper, so you do have to be quite careful.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: TeePee4Prez on April 28, 2009, 05:25:39 pm
The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.

I wish you could pull up a quote.  WOW, if anything I thought Montco was gonna be his saving grace, not like he even needed it.  I was afraid of a racial backlash coming from South and to an extent Northeast Philly.  Initial polls were not looking good in these areas for Obama pre-economic collapse.  There was one South Philly Ward leader where Kerry won with 71% saying he'd be lucky to see Obama pull 50% and another in a Ward in the Northeast say he'd be lucky to pull 1/3 of the vote pre-collapse (Obama actually won by 17 in that Ward).


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on April 28, 2009, 06:34:42 pm
The funny thing is, based on the stuff he was saying at the time he probably had basically only the primary results in mind when he made that statement. He frequently said Obama was in big trouble in Montco.

I wish you could pull up a quote.  WOW, if anything I thought Montco was gonna be his saving grace, not like he even needed it.  I was afraid of a racial backlash coming from South and to an extent Northeast Philly.  Initial polls were not looking good in these areas for Obama pre-economic collapse.  There was one South Philly Ward leader where Kerry won with 71% saying he'd be lucky to see Obama pull 50% and another in a Ward in the Northeast say he'd be lucky to pull 1/3 of the vote pre-collapse (Obama actually won by 17 in that Ward).

I think BRTD was referring to J.J.'s predictions.

bump - now that the Calif. city/town numbers are out. The Bay Area obviously did, SD missed narrowly, haven't checked the others.

Depends on what type of SD suburb we are talking about. Obama won the coastal and affluent 50th CD 51-47. He lost by more than that in the inland redneck/middle class 52nd CD. He also did very well in the inner suburbs of San Diego.

I'm defining suburbs as "metro area - central city". In this case, metro SD is just SD county. According to this site (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2008_general/contents.htm) , Obama won the city of SD 62.5%-35.7% and McCain won the remainder of the county 50.5%-47.8%.

There are plenty of places that are definitely "suburbs of San Diego" by any reasonable definition but which are technically in the city of San Diego proper, so you do have to be quite careful.

I understand that. The reverse is true in places like Boston. For the purposes of this thread, I'm using "metro area - central city", because otherwise it would be too complicated to define each neighborhood as "urban" or suburban" and then find election results for it.


Title: Re: Which metro areas will Obama carry the suburbs of?
Post by: nclib on July 17, 2009, 09:09:22 pm
Buffalo's MSA has only two counties, both of which voted for Obama, and as Kerry won Erie county outside of Buffalo, Obama had to as well. I doubt Rochester or Columbus did though.

Buffalo did, and Obama eked out a win in the Rochester suburbs. Didn't win Columbus's suburbs though.