Talk Elections

An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup (June 4, 2008)

Obama's appeal to young, highly educated apparent in general election

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

This data was compiled May 1-31; showing how things stand between McCain vs Obama among a number of demographics.

Notes: 1) Bush vs Kerry, 2004 in paranthesis [ ]. 2) [-]denotes incomparable data from 2004 exit poll. 3) Bold denotes net gain on 2004

Gender

Men: McCain 49 [55]; Obama 43 [44]
Women: McCain 42 [48]; Obama 48 [51]

Age

18-29: McCain 36 [45]; Obama 59 [54]
30-49: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
50-64: McCain 47 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
65+: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 38 [-]

Race

White: McCain 53 [58]; Obama 38 [41]
Blacks: McCain 4 [11]; Obama 90 [88]
Hispanics: McCain 29 [44]; Obama 62 [53]

Education

High school or less: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 43 [48]
Some college: McCain 47 [54]; Obama 45 [46]
College graduate: McCain 47 [52]; Obama 47 [46]
Postgraduate: McCain 41 [44]; Obama 54 [55]

Income (monthly)

Under $2000: McCain 36 [-]; Obama 53 [-]
$2000 - $4999: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
$5000 - $7499: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
$7500 or more: McCain 49 [-]; Obama 45 [-]

Region

East: McCain 40 [43]; Obama 50 [56]
Midwest: McCain 43 [51]; Obama 47 [48]
South: McCain 52 [58]; Obama 39 [42]
West: McCain 43 [49]; Obama 50 [50]

Party Identification

Democrat: McCain 15 [11]; Obama 76 [89]
Independent: McCain 45 [48]; Obama 43 [49]
Republican: McCain 85 [93]; Obama 10 [6]

Ideology

Liberal: McCain 14 [13]; Obama 80 [85]
Moderate: McCain 38 [45]; Obama 50 [54]
Conservative: McCain 69 [84]; Obama 23 [15]

Religiosity

Weekly: McCain 55 [61]; Obama 36 [39]
Nearly weekly/Monthly: McCain 46 [47]; Obama 46 [53]
Seldom/Never: McCain 37 (36); Obama 53 [62]

Religious Preference

Protestant/Other Christian: McCain 51 [59]; Obama 41 [40]
Catholic: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 45 [47]
Jewish: McCain 35 [23]; Obama 57 [74]
None: McCain 26 [31]; Obama 66 [67]

Marital Status

Married: McCain 52 [57]; Obama 39 [42]
Not married: McCain 35 [40]; Obama 55 [58]

Red vs Blue State

Bush state won by 6+ points: McCain 52 [-]; Obama 39 [-]
Margin of victory 5 points or less: McCain 44 [-]; Obama 47 [-]
Kerry state won by 6+ points: McCain 39 [-]; Obama 53 [-]

Dave

Well, I like those hispanic numbers.

Thursday June 5, 2008

Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%

Obama/Clinton - 50%
McCain - 45%

Nice showing with Independents and even Dems.

Those Hispanic numbers can't possibly be right can they?

In the 2006 national exit poll, Hispanics voted Democratic 69 to 30

Dave

Oh lord... must we start this?

Friday June 6, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-)

I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

What the hell does that mean? "I know Jews aren't racist but those Catholics..."

Obama is leading among Jews, 57 to 35, I've only emboldened McCain's % because it is an improvement on the support Bush received among Jews in 2004

As the campaign progresses, Obama may yet increase his support among Jews. These figures for May and, thus, pre-his speech at AIPAC

Dave

The key numbers I'm interested in are Latinos and women.

I don't think we have to worry.  The Jewish voters will come back to Obama.

Saturday June 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

The reason for this animosity is racism ... but it's not the Jews who are being racist.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say.

I think some Jews will come to support Obama, but I've talked to some Jewish friends and many think that Obama = end of Israel.

Wow, you just keep digging here. "Catholics...are not racist at all, otherwise they aren't Democrats."

Do you like living in ignorance?

If Jews and Catholics obviously aren't racist, who is? Methodists? Lutherans? Grouping people by saying the whole group obviously isn't racist is as ignorant and wrong as someone saying, "Well, blacks are obviously the criminals."

I think this whole racism angle has really been overplayed and overemphasized this election, not only within the mainstream media, but also on this board as well.

Hillary's huge win in Kentucky and West Virginia, and moderate victory in Pennsylvania had little to do with any kind of overt racism on the part of white working-class voters. There are many other factors at work shaping voters behavior, and attempts to explain this based predominately on race seems simplistic at best.

McCain may well perform better amongst Jews than Bush for a variety of reasons, one being that McCain is not seen as wedded to the evangelical Christian wing of the Republican party, and national security may be another to a lesser degree. I'm sure the Wright affair has not helped, but there is still a long way to go before November, and at the end of the day I would be surprised to see McCain do much better than 30% amongst Jewish voters.

Nice job Dave!

With respect to McCain:

First, as I have repeatedly tried to tell everyone, the supposed link between favoring amnesty for illegal aliens and getting support from legal hispanic voters in this country is spurious. 

Second, the support level from Republicans is near a historic low!

Third, the level of support from conservatives is lower than I have seem for any Republican party nominee for President is lower than I have seen it since such data has been collected.

Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Gallup's analysis:

"Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release."

Fantastic. So much for Democratic disunity (let's hope anyway)...

Love those hispanic numbers. If Obama is winning 62-63% of the hispanic vote he is most probably winning the election. Another milestone for him would be at least  41% of the white vote, which he is only 3% away from. Mccain is doing worse compared to Bush amongst whites than Obama is.

Monday June 9, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.

Today's data are based on June 6-8 interviewing. Gallup had been reporting a five-day rolling average for the general election to this point, but now that the major party candidates are known Gallup will move to reporting a three-day rolling average. Obama would still hold a statistically significant lead (matching his best to date) in the five-day rolling average based on June 4-8 interviewing given his recent stronger performance.

Obama/Clinton: 51%
McCain: 42%

Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!

I wish they would stop polling Obama/Clintron vs. McCain. I really don't care.

Some of the exit polls looked ugly, and they disturbed me as well...

Maybe I'm naive, but I have to believe that this is less than 5% of the American people that vote overtly on skin tone. George Wallace did all right in '68, even in many Northern states, but I would like to believe the possible fantasy that America is in 2008 a post-race era. For the future of our nation, I hope so anyways....

post-race, no. But race matters today far less than it has at any point in our history. That said, it still matters a great deal.

The number of people in America who are violently racist in a "I could never for a black guy because he's, yuck, black" way is probably pretty low. The number who feel threatened by people like Wright or Jackson and are afraid of black gangs, etc is much higher. Obama's strength originally was that he wasn't triggering the second group. Post-Wright, etc, he is.

Tuesday June 10, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday.

The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March. In turn, McCain has led Obama by as many as six percentage points in early May.

Obama Gains Among Women After Clinton Exit (June 11, 2008)

Now running as strongly vs. McCain among women as Clinton did

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107806/Obama-Gains-Among-Women-After-Clinton-Exit.aspx

Vote Preference in the General Election Presidential Election, by Gender and Marital Status

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5 - 9, 2008 [changes on previous week]

Married men: McCain 53% (-2); Obama 39% (+1)

Married women: McCain 45% (-7); Obama 45% (+5)

Unmarried men: McCain 35% (-4); Obama 57% (+3)

Unmarried women: McCain 31% (-1); Obama 57% (-)

Dave

Wednesday June 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 42% (+1)

This marks the third consecutive day that Obama has held a significant lead, as he enjoys a modest boost in support following Hillary Clinton's decision to concede the nomination. Obama's six and seven percentage point advantages over McCain in recent days have been his best to date. Obama has held significant leads over McCain at other points since mid-March (when Gallup first began tracking general election preferences), but for the most part the two candidates have been locked in statistical dead heats.

Thursday June 12, 2008

Heavy storms and tornadoes shut down Gallup interviewing centers in Omaha and Lincoln, Neb., Wednesday night, as a result Gallup will not be publishing new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results Thursday, June 12. The next report will be Friday, June 13.

Lame excuse.

Large Democratic Base Provides Big Advantage for Obama (June 12, 2008)

Over half of Americans identify as or lean toward being Democratic

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107842/Large-Democratic-Base-Provides-Big-Advantage-Obama.aspx

Party identification , June 5-10, 2008

Republicans 28%; Independents/Other/Don't Know 34%; Democrats 37%

Among Independents: 11% Lean Republican; 8% are 'pure' Independents; 15% Lean Democratic

Presidential General Election, by Party I/D

Republicans (28%): McCain 85%; Obama 10%
Independents (34%): McCain 39%; Obama 46%
Democrats (37%): McCain 14%; Obama 78%

Lean Republican (11%): McCain 81%; Obama 11%
'Pure' Independents (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Lean Democratic (15%): McCain 10%; Obama 83% [actually more pro-Obama than 'core' Democrats]

Republicans plus leaners (39%): McCain 84%; Obama 10%
'Pure' Independents, no leaners (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Democrats plus leaners (52%): McCain 13%; Obama 80%

Dave

Friday June 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Although Obama's three percentage point advantage is statistically significant, it is down from the 6- to 7-point leads he had in Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

According to the latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from June 9-10 and 12, a sizeable 10% of national registered voters are either undecided between the two major party candidates for president (4%), or say they will not vote for either (6%). This is the highest uncommitted percentage Gallup has seen since it launched daily tracking of an Obama vs. McCain race in early March. (The average across this time period is 8%.) Additionally, a consistent 1% volunteer they will vote for a different candidate.

Religious Americans Prefer McCain Over Obama (June 13, 2008)

Preference is especially stronger among white Americans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107989/Religious-Americans-Prefer-McCain-Over-Obama.aspx

"Is religion an important part of your daily life?"

Yes (64%): Obama 42%; McCain 47%

No (35%): Obama 58%; McCain 33%

Among non-Hispanic whites:

Important (62%): Obama 32%; McCain 57%

Not important (37%): Obama 54%; McCain 38%

McCain leads Obama among whites, 49% to 40%

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5-10, 2008

Dave

Could the bump be over?

Saturday June 14, 2008

Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Hmm, so is the Obama bounce winding down?  Let's see.

I've though that starting tomorrow, we'll start seeing less "bumped" numbers.  The next 3-4 days show the difference.

Compared to his score 2 weeks ago, the Mc cain score is weak (in gallup and rasmussen). I don't know why.

You sound disappointed Umengus?

And looking at Gallup, before any much longer it's going to be my turn :(

Sunday 15 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Dave

The move towards undecided is coming from two different areas..  Maybe I'll discuss it later. 

But it's to be expected - voter opinions about this election are far from hardened yet.  And it's quite possible that very little happens in the next two months to change this, since:

1. The conventions are very late.
2. There is almost always (in the modern era) a respite period in between the primary and the general elections where things settle down before throttling up again.

Monday 16 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The latest release, based on June 13-15 interviewing with over 2,600 registered voters nationwide, shows Obama regaining a statistically significant lead over McCain. Over the weekend, the race was slightly closer, but Obama still held an advantage. Obama has led by as many as seven percentage points since Hillary Clinton decided to abandon her presidential bid earlier this month.

Landslide Obama

No...but hes still leading ;)

Today was the removal of a strong McCain sample and Obama only bounced back to the 4% lead, not the 6% one he had last week - that's the classic sign of tracking poll movement.  We'll see whether it continues, holds steady or moves back...

Tuesday 17 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Wednesday 18 June, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

These results, based on June 15-17 interviewing, suggest that voter preferences are fairly stable at the moment -- Obama's lead has been four or five points in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Obama has averaged a four percentage point advantage over McCain since Hillary Clinton decided to suspend her campaign, though in the immediate days after Clinton conceded the nomination Obama led by as much as seven points.

McCain has trailed Obama for most of June and last held a significant lead over him in May 21-25 polling. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking will not be conducted on Wednesday; the next update will appear on gallup.com on Friday.

Forty Somethings May Hold Key to the Election (June 18, 2008)

Obama and McCain highly competitive among voters in their 40s

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108064/FortySomethings-May-Hold-Key-Election.aspx

Dave

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

Interesting:

A seperate USAToday/Gallup poll taken June 15-19 shows Obama leading by a wider margin.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 50%-44%.

Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.

Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.

The poll shows sharp divisions between the two candidates along lines of sex, race and age:

• Women support Obama by 14 points while men back McCain by 3 points.

• Whites support McCain by 6 points while blacks almost unanimously back Obama, who is the first African-American to claim a major party's presidential nomination. Of 130 blacks surveyed, 129 support the Illinois senator.

• Young people back Obama while seniors support McCain. Among those 18 to 29 years old, Obama holds a better than 2-1 edge. Among those 65 and older, McCain leads, 49%-40%.

There were significant regional differences as well. McCain leads in the South, Obama on both the East and West coasts. In the battleground Midwest, Obama is ahead 48%-40%.

The survey of 1,625 adults — including 1,460 registered voters and 1,310 likely voters — has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-20-poll-friday_N.htm

Wow, blacks might be almost unanimous. 

I think people are underestimating the bump he is going to get from them. 

Blacks were already almost unanimously Democrats.

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

Do you need to constantly post this comment?

It is a fair comment on the poll-obsessed, which includes me.  :)

Yes, I do. I don't see the problem with pointing out Obama's landslide margin.

Sunday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4 ;)

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

You would be incorrect. Rasmussen has Obama leading by seven points today. Rasmussen pushes leaners and finds that the margin stays the same pushed and unpushed. In any case, my definitions of "wide" and "narrow" are "outside of margin of error" and "within margin of error". In other words, more than three points is wide, less than three points is narrow. Fifteen points is absurd.

You, quite simply, are a moron. And I will not be drawn into a pointless debate in which you constantly lie and distort, as has happened to Alcon in the other tracking poll thread.

I´ve also read somewhere that Obama is doing better among polls that include "Likely Voters" rather than "Registered Voters", compared with Kerry in 2004, who did better among "Registered Voters" ... I don´t know how much of this is true.

This election is over! Obama 08!

Well lets look at the actual polls,

Organization     Last polling date     Obama     McCain     Spread

                                                Registered voters

Gallup                        6/20                    46           44              2
Opinion Dynamics      6/18                    45           41              4
RTS (Cook)                 6/15                    44           40              4

Average                                                45           42              3

                                                    Likely voters

Gallup                         6/19                   50            44             6
Rasmussen                 6/21                   49            42             7
Zogby                         6/14                   47            42             5

Average                                                49            43             6

So, based on this information it would appear that Obama does indeed do better among likely voters.

A caveat is how the survey research firm determines "likely voters."  One method is historical, i.e. has the respondent participated in the past, a second method is "intensity," and a third method is a "blend" of the two methods.  In my experience, the "blend" method is best proved it gives more weight to historical than intensity.

Also, please note that (as expected) the undecided vote is smaller among likely voters than among registered voters.

My guess is a 3-5 point race.

Election Enthusiasm Dips After Primaries [June 23, 2008]

Democrats maintain an edge over Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108322/Election-Enthusiasm-Dips-After-Primaries.aspx#1

All registered voters

48% are more enthusiastic

37% are less enthusiastic

14% feel about the same

By Party Affiliation

61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners are more enthusiastic

35% of Republicans and Republican-leaners are more enthusiastic

GALLUP POLL June 15-19

Dave

Monday 23 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on June 20-22 polling, and match the average three percentage point advantage held by Obama for the past week.

Obama received a rather short-lived bump in support right after he clinched the nomination, with his lead over McCain stretching to as much as seven points. Since then, voter preferences have been quite stable, with Obama maintaining a slight edge.

Relatively stable voter preferences at this point in the campaign would not be unexpected, as the intensity of the campaign has died down since the primary process concluded. Obama and McCain continue to make speeches and campaign almost daily to attempt to keep themselves in the news, however, the next major events in the campaign will likely be the candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates later this summer.

Let me amplify, by compring the data from March of 2004 with that of June 2008.

                    More enthusiastic     Less enthusiastic     Same
                    Rs          Ds               Rs          Ds               Rs          Ds

2008            35          61               51          32               13         13

2004            52          51               27          35               20         13

Change      -17        +10             +24          - 3              - 7           0

So, while there has been a modest increase in Democrat enthsiasm over the past four years based on this data, there has been a dramatic drop in Republican enthusiasm over the same period.

Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues [June 24, 2008]

Better positioned than McCain on top two issues - gas prices and the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx

If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on [issue]. [ROTATED]?

Healthcare (41%)*: Obama 51%; McCain 26%
The economy (49%): Obama 48%; McCain 32%
Energy, including gas prices (51%): Obama 47%; McCain 28%
Taxes (34%): Obama 44%; McCain 35%
The situation in Iraq (44%): Obama 43%; McCain 43%
Moral values (34%): Obama 40%; McCain 39%
Illegal immigration (27%): Obama 34%; McCain 36%
Terrorism (41%): Obama 33%; McCain 52%

* % citing issue as being extremely importaint in influencing their vote

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

Tuesday 24 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

All hands... steady as she goes.

On "Illegal Immigration," 19% say "neither," which is both higher than any of the others, and more than half that of either candidate.

Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke?  :P

Taxes and Iraq surprise me. I think the moral values should be closer than Bush-Kerry, considering that McCain isn't really pushing his Christian values, but these numbers are wrong.

McCain is more competetive on the Iraq issue than he has any right to be.

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.

Gallup didn't do a tracking poll in 2004 after the 2000 disaster (which has been corrected for now, as far as I can tell).

Their final poll would have been directly had they not allocated the undecideds as follows:

Actual Poll
Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 1

After Undecided Allocation
Bush 49, Kerry 49 (+2), Nader 2 (+1)

Frank Newport must have been on crack when he made that move.  Break them evenly!

in the form of hawk...

Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+2)

Based on the language in the release, I suspect that it's just a strong McCain sample.  Time will tell...

I had a sneaking suspicion you'd be unable to resist posting this, Sam.  ;)

I had a sneaking suspicion that no one else would want to.  ;)

(its been up for about 30 minutes, at least)

I was on my way to!  Some of us don't subscribe to the damn Gallup RSS feed.  :P

I subscribe to the RSS feed? - that's news to me.  I'm too cheap to subscribe to anything except for this site.  I do know it was posted to RCP over 30 minutes ago - that's what I was reading it from.

Utah and California are canceling each other out.

An RSS feed is a free format (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSS_(file_format)), and Gallup doesn't actually use it.  I was being playful, but apparently that don't come across :)

Problem is not really their last result which was not so horrible. The problem is their polls during the campaign. Very erratic. Fake bounce. etc (The biggest problem was the bad composition of their sample)

Maybe that, like Rasmussen in 2004, Gallup has improved his way to poll the country. Their tracking poll seems not bad. But I stay cautious, especially in summer.

It just might be an overly McCain sample.

How soon will that day's sample drop out of the average?

That's the way Gallup's original poll is (not the tracking poll).  It's supposed to be doing that before the election.

The WalterMitty bump is starting to show.

McCain vs. Obama as Commander in Chief [June 25, 2008]

McCain gets high marks, but Obama passes 50% threshold

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108373/McCain-vs-Obama-Commander-Chief.aspx

Do you think [John McCain/Barack Obama -- can -- or cannot -- handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military?

John McCain: 80% Yes, can; 17% No, can't
Barack Obama: 55% Yes can; 40% No, can't

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

North Dakota is definitley in play. I think these numbers strengthen his lead in one time swing states like North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia, as well.

Phil, nobody believes this race is actually tied, just as nobody believes Obama is leading by double digits. There's no need to pretend that the Gallup Tracking Poll is the only poll that exists or that it's the only one worth anything. It just makes you and your followers (like AHDuke99) look desperate.

You also have ChrisNJ arguing that Newsweek's poll wasn't bias, and Josh22 believes that NC has an 80% chance of flipping. So saying "nobodY" believes this nonsense is a bit inaccurate, because I assure you some do.

Nobody believes that this race is tied? Oh, ok. We'll just agree that Obama is up nine points, right (since we can't have it as a double digit lead)? The only polls that are worth anything are the ones that show Obama up in Dem states and closing in on the lead in GOP states. That's your way of thinking and its popular here. It'll always be popular here. I suggest that you not waste your time ganging up on all five McCain supporters here just because we have some good news.

I love how every Obama supporter can boast about their "lead" everywhere else but we McCain supporters can't do the same.

I have never said Obama was up nine points but thanks for putting words in my mouth.

Care to prove the part I highlighted? I posted just recently about how the poll in MO showing Obama down 7 points probably wasn't that far off, I've never bought into the hype of states like ND being competetive and I've written off the LA Times and Newsweek polls as complete trash (several times).

Let me ask you this Phil... given all of the state and national polling we have seen over the past few weeks, do you really think the race is dead even right now?

Being excited about a poll is one thing but your version of "excitement" seems to involve constantly mocking Obama supporters, lumping them all into one category and acting like a child. It's sad to see since you are a worthwhile posters in many ways.

At least get some better material if you're going to carry on in this way! ;)

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

Thursday, 26 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

OH the suspense

*dramatic music*

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

McCain is running 3 points higher than Bush got in 2004 with Jewish voters. 

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

Again the problem is not carrying the group, but cutting into the base.

three points is a completely meaningless distinction to make when MoEs are considered.

oh, and apparently the Hispanics aren't dead set on hating a negro.  they may well give him 70%...

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think? :P

There's that factual anecdotal evidence again....

Are you a Conservative? I know that among my Reform community Obama has incredible support (and I live in Washington which already loves Obama), but I think he doesn't do as well among Orthodox or Conservatives.

You definitely are in the minority... I've actually never met a Republican Jew in person.

Tomorrow.

I know tons of Republican Jews.  My brother in law is one (he's in Texas though).  Know many in Kentucky, and even a bunch in the chicagoland area.  They're everywhere.  Orthodox Jews are often conservative, by the way.  It's the assimilated and Reform Jews who tend to be liberal.

Even during the Reagan years most Jewish voters voted Democrat.  In the 1990's the percentage increased, but the percentage of Jews voting Republican increased in 200 and fairly dramatically, in 2004.  McCain's numbers are higher still.

Most Jews will vote Democrat, but it looks like a larger minority will be voting Republican in 2008, if the polling is correct.

Still 44-44 on June 27 for the third straight day.

Thank you.  Three day sample, I take it?

I don't know.

Edit:  I looked it up, and it says it's a rolling three day average, so yes, and for the moment not much is rolling.

Americans Prioritize the Economy Over Terrorism [27 June, 2008]

Majority viewpoint persists across all imcomes and among independents

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108415/Americans-Prioritize-Economy-Over-Terrorism.aspx

Dave

Obama Beats McCain on Most Character Ratings [27 June, 2008]

Obama leads on 7 of 10 characteristics, but McCain wins on leadership

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108418/Obama-Beats-McCain-Most-Character-Ratings.aspx

A. Cares about the needs of people like you: Obama 52%; McCain 30%

B. Is a strong and decisive leader: Obama 40%; McCain 46%

C. Shares your values: Obama 47%; McCain 39%

D. Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives: Obama 54%; McCain 29%

E. Can manage the government effectively: Obama 42%; McCain 42%

F. Is independent in his thoughts and actions: Obama 52%; McCain 36%

G. Is honest and trustworthy: Obama 39%; McCain 35% (14% cite both equally)

H. Has a clear plan for solving the country's problems: Obama 41%; McCain 31% (19% cite neither)

I. Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington: Obama 48%; McCain 35%

J. Would stand up to the special interests, including those aligned with his party: Obama 48%; McCain 34%

C, D, E, F: Asked of Form A half-sample

G, H, I,  J: Asked of Form B half-sample

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

Gallup Editors' Election Poll Analysis [27 June, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108430/Gallup-Editors-Election-Poll-Analysis.aspx

Dave

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

These one's kind of surprise me.

I thought everybody thought Obama was an elitist. How can an elitist share common American values?

Also, so much for McCain's maverick image.

Look closely at the numbers!

In only three of the categories did Obama break 50%, and that just barely with his highest being 54%!

The truth is that McCain has real low numbers, which he has earned!

indeed but I think that on the election day, Mc Cain will be first on this problem.

I'd be surprised if he isn't but it's plausible that "moral values" won't be the primary factor in determining how one votes to the extent it was in 2004. The 'marriage' issue was, of course, on the ballot in several states which, undoubtedly, galvanised social conservatives. In 2004, social conservatives were core, the vangaurd, among Bush activists; while 22% of voters cited "moral values" as their most important issue, breaking for Bush by 80% to Kerry's 18%

I don't know how salient "values issues" were, in 2006, in terms of voters citing it is their top issue but they broke as follows:

Extremely important (36%): Democrat 40%; Republican 58%
Very important (21%): Democrat 51%; Republican 48%
Somewhat important (20%): Democrat 61%; Republican 37%

Important (77%): Democrat 37.31%; Republican 38.36%

Not at all important (22%): Democrat 69%; Republican 29%

In 2006, white evangelical/born-again Christians (24%) broke Democrat 28% (+7 on 2004) and Republican 70% (-8 on 2004). White evangelicals comprised 71% of evangelicals; but the remaining 29%, largely African-American I'd have thought, obviously closed the gap overall: Democrat 41%; Republican 58%.

Obama is reaching out to centrist evangelicals and Catholics - appealing to their, for want of better words, social consciences. Add to that the distrust many evangelicals have towards McCain. That said, it is a presidential year, which brings the issue of judicial nominees into the mix

Trawling comments as I do on various media sites, I've encountered some hostility towards McCain citing aspects of his private life; namely, his tomcatting when married to his first wife, from whom he separated then divorced so that he could marry his younger, richer mistress

Dave

No current Gallup.

McCain polling 30-60 when Bush did about 25-75 in 2004 is a definite, substantial improvement. Of course, you can say that the poll is wrong, etc. And in overall numbers the number of Jews is still too low to make a real impact with this kind of change.

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

:)

Registered voters' preferences had been evenly divided in the prior three Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Obama has now pushed slightly back ahead after a stronger showing in Saturday's polling, mirroring the slight advantage he has held for much of June. The polling was the first Gallup had conducted following the "Unity" rally in which Obama and former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton publicly campaigned together.

The presidential race has been close since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March. The largest lead for either candidate has been just seven percentage points, for Obama after Clinton decided to suspend her campaign.

My guess is a 4-6 point race.

That pro-McCain sample passed through the system

Will the Republican hacks still act like this is the only national poll that matters?

Oops. Looks like some people got a little too excited.

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

Monday, June 30, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

About One in Four Voters are "Swing Voters" [30 June, 2008]

Higher proportion than in 2004

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108466/About-One-Four-Voters-Swing-Voters.aspx

Voter Preference and Commitment for the 2008 Presidential Election

42% Obama, certain to vote for
8% Obama, could change mind
6% Undecided/Other
9% McCain, could change mind
35% McCain, certain to vote for

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Political Party

16% Democrats
34% Independents
21% Republicans

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Ideology

12% Liberal
27% Moderate
27% Conservative

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Swing Voters

50% View both favorably
13% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
17% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
11% View both unfavorably

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Committed Voters

25% View both favorably
36% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
31% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
2% View both unfavorably

June 15-19, USA Today/Gallup Poll

Dave

So much for that large proportion of swing Hillary voters.

Again, a valuable post.

Please note that the so-called "swing" voters have a much more negative view of both McCain and Obama than the committed voters!

How is that strange? Of course the number of commited Obama or McCain voters disapproving of both candidates will be low. If you disapprove of a candidate you're unlikely to be solid for him. There are many more swing voters that approve of both than commited voters too.

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

I think the bulk of posters said, "Maybe this just one bad sample."

I agree, attributing the posts of one or two people to a whole party's worth of posters is bad.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush [1 July, 2008]

About half are concerned Obama would go too far in changing Bush policies

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108490/Americans-Worry-McCain-Would-Too-Similar-Bush.aspx

How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 49% (Democrats 76%; Independents 47%; Republicans 20%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 14%; Independents 20%; Republicans 25%)
Not too concerned: 16% (Democrats 4%; Independents 17%; Republicans 30%)
Not concerned at all: 15% (Democrats 6%; Independents 15%; Republicans 25%)

How concerned are you that, as president, Barack Obama would go too far in changing the policies that George W Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 30% (Democrats 16%; Independents 22%; Republicans 56%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 15%; Independents 20%; Republicans 23%)
Not too concerned: 19% (Democrats 21%; Independents 22%; Republicans 14%)
Not at all concerned: 31% (Democrats 47%; Independents 34%; Republicans 7%)

June 15-19, 2008, USA Today/Gallup poll

Dave

45% of Republicans are concerned that McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to those of Bush


31% of Democrats are concerned that Obama would go too far in changing the policies Bush has pursued

Dave

Hispanic Voters Solidly Behind Obama [2 July, 2008]

Few demographic differences evident among Hispanics

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108532/Hispanic-Voters-Solidly-Behind-Obama.aspx

Presidential Preference, by Party Identification

Democrats: Obama 78%; McCain 13%
Independents: Obama 55%; McCain 30%
Republicans (18%): Obama 21%; McCain 75%

Presidential Preference, by Ideology

Liberal: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
Moderate: Obama 60%; McCain 28%
Conservative (36%): Obama 46%; McCain 45%

Presidential Preference, by Age

18 to 29 years old: Obama 66%; McCain 26%
30 to 49 years old: Obama 59%; McCain 31%
50 to 64 years old: Obama 56%; McCain 33%
65 years or older: Obama 51%; McCain 30%

Presidential Vote Preference by Demographic Subgroup, Among Hispanics

Men: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
Women: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

College graduate: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
College non-graduate: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

Married: Obama 55%; McCain 35%
Not married: Obama 63%; McCain 25%

Attend Church weekly: Obama 54%; McCain 34%
Attend Church monthly: Obama 61%; McCain 30%
Seldom/Never attend: Obama 63%; McCain 27%

East: Obama 64%; McCain 25%
Midwest: Obama 63%; McCain 25%
South: Obama 52%; McCain 36%
West: Obama 62%; McCain 29%

Monthly income of < $2,000: Obama 62%; McCain 23%
Monthly income of $2,000 to < $5,000: Obama 60%; McCain 31%
Monthly income of $5,000 to < $7,500: Obama 58%; McCain 34%
Monthly income of $7,500 or more: Obama 54%; McCain 39%

Based on aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data, March-June 2008

Dave

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

The June 29-July 1 data show a tightening of the race with the candidates falling back into a statistical tie. Obama led by five percentage points in Monday and Tuesday reports -- based largely on polling conducted over the weekend -- perhaps enjoying a slight bounce following his "Unity" rally with former rival Hillary Clinton last Friday.

In the last two individual nights of polling, voter preferences have been closely divided. The race has generally been close in recent weeks, with Obama usually holding a slight edge.

Obama has been able to attain brief leads following his clinching of the nomination in early June and the Obama-Clinton joint campaign appearance.

These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks. For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back to Gallup's June 1-5 release, and his daily percentage over this time period has ranged only between 44% and 48%. McCain's percent of the vote has averaged 43%, and his percent has varied only across an even narrower range between 42% and 45%.

Just bumping around...  The real Gallup numbers are probably still around Obama +2 to +3%, as they have been for a few weeks now.

So you don't think the 'attacks' on McCain's military service as a qualification to be president are having any impact?

Dave

No.  I think everyone's tuned out right now.  Wait until mid-August or so.

Maybe a 4-5 point race tightening slightly.  Ask me in a fortnight.  :)

I don't think anything is having an effect right now.  No one is paying attention and the numbers bouncing around are mostly noise.

Pretty well frozen nationally at Obama + 4.

And it will probably stay that way except for a short time when the VP's are chosen and then finally get some real action happening when the conventions start.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-1)

As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of interviewing of over 2,500 registered voters), but little indication for weeks now of substantive change in the structure of the race. The preferences of registered voters between the two major party candidates remain closely divided, with Obama usually polling within a few percentage points of 46%, and McCain polling within a few points of 43%.

Gallup will conduct interviews Thursday, July 3, but will not interview on July 4. The report on the three-day rolling average for Tuesday through Thursday will be posted on gallup.com on Saturday, July 5.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing from July 1-3, 2008. About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

Except for a brief period a week ago when McCain and Obama were tied in voter preference, Obama has had the slight upper hand in the race since Gallup's June 6 report, leading McCain by one to seven percentage points. The last time McCain had any numerical advantage over Obama was in Gallup's June 5 report when he was one percentage point ahead, 46% to 45%. However, the last time McCain had a statistically significant lead was in early May.

Gallup did not conduct daily tracking interviewing on the July 4 holiday. Thus, tomorrow's report will be based on interviews conducted July 2-3 and July 5.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing conducted in the two days before the July 4 holiday, July 2-3, and Saturday, July 5 (no interviewing was conducted on July 4). About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

News organizations over the last several days have given extensive play to the precise wording of various Obama statements concerning what he would do regarding withdrawal of troops from Iraq were he to be elected president. So far, there is little sign in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking that this has made a difference in the preferences of registered voters. Of course, it is to be expected that voters' attention is turned elsewhere over a holiday weekend, so a major shift in the standing of the two candidates would be an unusual occurrence. Until the vice presidential nominees are announced and/or the Democratic convention begins in late August, the twin efforts of the campaigns to influence voter perceptions of the race and of the news media to find something new and compelling to say about the race will be competing for what could be sparse voter attention.

barack obama is completely unstoppable

Economic distress is dissolving American racism.

Obama "refining" his Iraq Policy doesnt seem to be having an affect [either way] on his numbers...with the media pounding away at it im kinda surprised.

The media is doing everything they can to get John McCain elected... and Obama still leads by 5+ points?

Monday, July 7, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Interviews for this latest three-day rolling average were conducted July 3 and 5-6. Obama's four-point advantage over McCain matches his average over the past week.

Obama has held the upper hand in voter preferences over the last month for all but three days, with his lead reaching as much as seven percentage points. This essentially spans the time since Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination.

McCain enjoyed a similar run in March after he clinched the GOP nomination, maintaining at least a slim numerical advantage for 19 consecutive days, though only by as many as four points during this time.

Religious Intensity Predicts Support for McCain [8 July, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics and black Protestants provide notable exceptions

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108688/Religious-Intensity-Predicts-Support-McCain.aspx

Is religion important in your life? Who do you support in the presidential election?

Religion is important in my life (about two-thirds): Obama 40%; McCain 50%
Religion is NOT important in my life (about one-third) : Obama 55%; McCain 36%

Among non-Hispanic whites who are Protestants/non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 27%; McCain 63%
NOT important: Obama 45%; McCain 46%

Among non-Hispanic white Catholics:

Important: Obama 37%; McCain 53%
NOT important: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

Among white Hispanic Catholics:

Important: Obama 57%; McCain 31%
NOT important: Obama 63%; McCain 30%

Among black non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 90%; McCain 4%
NOT important: Obama 92%; McCain 4%

Among Jewish Americans:

Important: Obama 45%; McCain 45%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 26%

Among those of other, non-Christian and non-Jewish religions:

Important: Obama 60%; McCain 30%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 23%

Among those not identifying with a religion:

Important: Obama 61%; McCain 28%
NOT important (89%): Obama 65%; McCain 26%

Aggregate of Gallup Polls, March to June 2008

Dave

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama's lead has been as great as seven percentage points over the past month, but has averaged only three points thus far in July, identical to his average lead for the month of June.

The fact that Obama has consistently held an advantage over McCain among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since early June suggests that he could very well win the election were it held today (depending on voter turnout patterns). The important question, however, and one addressed in detail Monday on Gallup.com, is whether his consistently narrow lead at this point in mid-summer bodes well for him in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108676/July-Leader-Lost-Last-Competitive-US-Elections.aspx

In essence, the Gallup analysis finds that races that appear closely contested at the start of the summer tend to stay close for the duration of the campaign, up to and including Election Day. This describes the 2004, 2000, 1980, and 1960 elections.

The exceptions to this are years when, after being closely matched in early to mid-July, one of the candidates jumps into the lead following his party's national convention over the summer. In these cases -- including Bill Clinton in 1992, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Richard Nixon in 1968 -- the candidate getting the big boost out of his convention ultimately won.

 Come on Barack get that boost at Denver  :)

Meh, another Pro-McCain sample on the way of passing through ...

just more bumping around - the race has not fundamentally changed at all, and probably will not change for another month.

Amazingly stable thru the summer.  A 4 to 5 point race since the ist part of June.  Not even worth looking at the tracking polls until the conventions.  There will be no change.

Don't you keep saying that you're done with tracking polls?  :P

I think we're both having the same problem.

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

Alcon, I have to admit I can't help glancing at them.

I need help.

Of course it is, can't you read? Obama should be ahead by 15-20 pts.

Regardless of how much he "should" be ahead by, the race is not essentially tied. Obama's been consistently ahead since the primary ended.

Be patient, folks...

Oh please.

There may not be any major movement until after the conventions; though the Veep choices could see them bounce a little here and there

Right now, it's not too difficult to conceive young, dynamic, fresh, visionary Obama receiving a substantial bounce post-Denver. Not so sure about the lackluster McCain, who could lose ground post-St Paul as his acceptance speech falls flat

I don't buy the opinion that Obama should be ahead by 15 to 20 points. He is yet to cross, as Charlie Cook puts it, the "acceptability threshold". The time for Obama to address the "risk" factor that comes with insurgent candidates will be in the head to head debates with McCain; and, as we know, Obama can be underwhelming in debates. Hope he's got his best Devil's Advocate out there with him :)

Dave

Obama Gaining Among Voters With Less Formal Education [9 July, 2008]

Has erased deficit to McCain

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108709/Obama-Gaining-Among-Voters-Less-Formal-Education.aspx

1. High school educations or less

Mar 2008: Obama 40%; McCain 47%
Apr 2008: Obama 41%; McCain 45%
May 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 46%

Jun 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 43%. By subgroup:

Men: Obama 42%; McCain 46%
Women: 44%; McCain 40%
White: Obama 34%; McCain 51%
Nonwhite: Obama 73%; McCain 17%

2. Some college: Obama 46%; McCain 44%

3. College graduates with non-post graduate education: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

4. Postgraduate eduction: Obama 43%; McCain 40%. By gender:

Men: Obama 46%; McCain 47%
Women: Obama 61%; McCain 32%

Monthy aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data

Dave

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I heard one of the talking heads saying that Obama tends to pick up on the weekends; we'll see what happens this week.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Friday, July 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Obama has typically held a modest advantage over McCain since early June. The six percentage point lead in the latest results, based on July 8-10 polling, ranks among the presumptive Democratic nominee's bigger leads, just one point shy of a high seven-point lead in June 7-9 polling.

In the last two weeks, Obama's share of the vote has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain's has ranged from 42% to 44%. So while preferences have not shifted dramatically, Obama enjoys a larger lead in the latest report because his support is now at the upper end of his recent range while McCain's is at the lower end of his.

The numbers for the last three individual nights of polling have been consistent -- with Obama's advantage over McCain ranging from four to seven points -- further reinforcing the notion that preferences at this point of the campaign are quite stable.

Gallup and Rasmussen, once again, agreeing to disagree. (Which mostly just shows that there are no trendlines to be drawn, and things are steady at about Obama+4/5.)

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

(yawn)

Fewer Americans See McCain, Obama Views as "About Right" [11 July, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108775/Fewer-Americans-See-McCain-Obama-Views-About-Right.aspx

Do you think John McCain's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 40% [30%]. Among Republicans 20% [10%]; Independents 41% [33%]; Democrats 57% [43%]

About right: 37% [42%]. Among Republicans 60% [63%]; Independents 34% [42%]; Democrats 21% [26%]

Too liberal: 15% [20%]

Do you think Barack Obama's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 9% [8%]

About right: 43% [47%]. Among Republicans 15% [28%]; Independents 44% [49%]; Democrats 68% [58%]

Too liberal: 40% [37%]. Among Republicans 75% [65%]; Independents 36% [33%]; Democrats 15% [20%]

How concerned are you that John McCain and Barack Obama may be too closely aligned with people who hold radical political views?

USA Today / Gallup poll, June 15-19, 2008

Very concerned: McCain 17%; Obama 28%
Somewhat concerned: McCain 25%; Obama 24%
Not too concerned: McCain 30%; Obama 23%
Not at all concerned: McCain 27%; Obama 24%

Dave

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

My guess was a four point race, possibly some slight erosion from mid June.  We'll see if it's dropped for a 4-6 point race to a 2-4 or tied-2 point race by mid week.

First, the element of time is all too often underestimated in political calculations.

A candidate who trails for an extended period of time tends to find his financial resources stunted, his workers dispirited, and himself depressed (and more likely to do something stupid).

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

This begs the question - Could this be the end of John McCain's campaign?

I'm not sure, but McCain will have to spend a lot of time and money in Mississippi, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, and Kansas incase they flip.

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Hey, maybe I discovered Obama's campaign strategy. Spent a little money in places like MS and GA to get the Republicans making sarcastic remarks about them while they could be attacking him on real issues. Genius. :P

Now this is just blantaly false spin. McCain would lead if they used a likely voter format because Obama's supporters(blacks and kids) are less likely to vote than McCain supporters(conservatives and seniors).

Good thing I'm not in charge of running McCain's campaign.  ;)

That does remind me though...I'll start doing my part to help McCain get elected tomorrow. The Philadelphia HQs opens tomorrow afternoon and it's only ten minutes from my house. It's based right in the middle of one of those swing blue collar areas that happened to be Hillary's base in the city.

You really need to look at the facts!

While, in most elections, Republican candidates typically perform better among "likely voters" than among "registered voters," McCain is an exception.

Lucky. Our County HQ hasn't opened yet so I'm forced to go to the part-time one in Sagnasty, I mean Saginaw, and they force me to do Voter Reg. in the ghetto.

Well, my real volunteer work won't start tomorrow. I'm just going to check out the place and pick up a few things which means I have to help out a bit. I know a few of the guys running the show for McCain in SE PA so I get all the local e-mail updates. They mentioned a bunch of things to do tomorrow including putting together some lawn signs. The fact of the matter is that I need a few signs for myself and some others but can't just be an asshole, walk in, pick them up and leave.  :P

Not spin, simple fact.

While it is true that Republican candidates typically do better among likely voters than among registered voters, McCain is an exception.

While I could cite several polls, different dates and methodologies could be used to explain the discrepencies, so, I cite Gallup, who had both likely and registered results in the June 19, 2008 poll.  Here are the results:

        Registered Voters                                Likely Voters
McCain     Obama     Difference         McCain     Obama     Difference

  44%         46%            3%                44%         50%            6%

Now, if you look at a variety of polls, you will see that there is a drastic difference in the enthusiasm of the supporters of Obama versus McCain.

When you go in, don't tell them you're a Republican (or a sort of conservative), or they'll probably tell you to leave.

Monday, July 14, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

My guess is less than 4 points, probably 2-3, for Obama.

Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

It looks like my guess was pretty good.

Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama Maintaining Support Among Liberals [16 July, 2008]

Support may be increasing slightly

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108859/Obama-Maintaining-Support-Among-Liberals.aspx

Presidential Trial Heat Vote, By Party and Ideology, July 7-13 Gallup Daily Tracking

Liberal Democrats: Obama 92%; McCain 5%

Moderate Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 10%

Conservative Democrats: Obama 68%; McCain 20%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans: Obama 20%; McCain 73%

Conservative Republicans: Obama 6%; McCain 90%

Dave

It seems there's always a percentage of people who just have no idea what's going on or who enjoy screwing with pollsters who bother them at home.

Well, 1 or 2% of that is probably Clinton or Huckabee/Romney/Paul supporters who are still disgruntled.

Yeah. Like the 3% of Rhode Island voters who approved of George Bush and  then voted for Sheldon Whitehouse.

Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)


Just reported on MSNBC

While last week it appeared to be 4-6 point race, it now appears to be 0-3 point race.

Yeah. I wonder why. Perhaps its cyclical. I just don't see why McCain is doing well now when Obama is ahead in places like Colorado and Virginia and that McCain is struggling in the Northern Plains. My guess is that the campaign has just died down. Still, non-trackers show a 4-7 point race.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama still holds a slight edge, but with just 45% of registered voters saying they would vote for him in November, versus 44% for McCain. McCain's current support, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 15-17, falls at the upper end of the 42% to 44% range seen for him since late June.

The dip in support for Obama to 45% from 46% in Thursday's report and from 47% earlier this week (when he held a four percentage point lead over McCain) is not statistically significant. It will be important to see whether today's figures are maintained for several days before it can be determined that the race has narrowed to a virtual tie.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen agree.

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on interviews conducted July 16-18. In Friday's report, Barack Obama's support fell out of the narrow 46%-48% range it had been in for the prior 18 reports, and remains outside that range today. However, Obama had a stronger night in Friday interviewing and could inch back into that range with another strong performance tonight.

Obama usually does better on summer weekend polling.

Obama is really running away with this race!

The "strong night" might the weekend shift seen in previous weeks.

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

LV's tend to get more useful as election season goes on, and RV less so.  Early on, ignoring RV's in favor of LV's is potentially a bad idea.

RV's that aren't LV's are not unlikely voters.

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

It isn't just a coincidence that Obama's lead increases over the weekend every time in the Gallup poll.

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided. In places like West Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, these voters broke against Obama in the closing days.

We need to wait to Wednesday.

And they are undecided because Obama is a flawed candidate.

what then ?

Well, any voter who fails the LV screen...that doesn't mean they are unlikely to vote, necessarily.  Plenty of them will vote.

There is no such thing as a non-flawed candidate, and if there was, I would be highly suspicious of him or her. As opposed to a lot of people, my opinion of Obama actually improved after he showed that he's not perfect.

The undecideds could well be waiting to see whether or not Obama crosses their "acceptability threshold" and if he does they'll likely break his way and he wins; but if not ...


Only then it was Democrat vs Democrat ... I'm far from certain but I'd guess that, nationally, those Democratic primary voters who were most concerned about the economy favored Clinton

Far from this race being Obama's to lose, it's Obama's to win and he's not there yet because, rightly or wrongly, McCain's standing is, well, higher than that of his president and party. He has a compelling story to tell of war heroism :) (not that it mattered in 2000); as well as the reputation for being a "maverick" - whatever ::)

Dave

Yeah, I think so. Part of this is the "Commander in Chief" threshold that was much talked about earlier in the year. This is going to be a sticking point for Obama because of his background & relative inexperience, something that still must be handled (along with whatever the GOP attack plan is for August & September). Hence, the necessity of his going overseas.


Yeah pretty much.

Monday July 21, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-1)

Well, Gallup and Rasmussen disagree completely again. Hooray!

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling. Obama's numbers have ALWAYS been inflated on weekends so far.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Are people going to vote in November on a weekend?  That's the big question.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

Friday is part of the weekend. People are out doing things, do you really think that is a good time to poll?

Ah, I should have ckecked the calendar.

Still, you have 2 days from the weekend in this and tomorrow's sample.

That it is. From gallup:

These results are based on July 18-20 polling, including two days since Obama began his much publicized overseas trip to visit the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Europe. It is unclear at this point whether the trip will boost Obama's poll standing, but his performance in Sunday interviewing was one of his stronger in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date. Tuesday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted since Obama began his trip abroad.

Since Obama clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June, he has typically held an advantage over McCain, which has averaged three points, but been as large as seven points.

The current results also mark the first time in more than three weeks that McCain's share of the trial heat vote has not been in the 42% to 44% range. In fact, it matches a June 7-9 reading as McCain's lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March.


They've tended to be higher at weekends; but whether or not weekend polling is any more or less 'accurate' than weekday polling I don't know

Dave

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

Busier with what?

Tuesday, July 22, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-2)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Obama performed above par with voters in two of the last four days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, spanning a period of heavy news coverage of his overseas trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. This resulted in the race widening slightly to a difference of six percentage points in Monday's report based on interviewing conducted July 18-20. However, interviewing Monday night showed a closer race, suggesting that the question of how much bounce Obama may receive from his trip is still an open one.

Longer term, the race has been quite stable. Obama's current 3-point lead in the race is nearly identical to the average lead he has held over McCain thus far in July, and matches his 3-point advantage in the race for the month of June.

Do the terms "0-3 point race" and "weekends" ring a bell to anyone?

1: McCain's base are almost certainly busier than Obama's.
2: the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters is not necessarily underestimated in polling. I think the opposite is more likely.

do the terms "arrogant" and "broken record" ring a bell to anyone?

The friday polling sample dropped off on this average. Too bad elections aren't held on weekends or Obama would win by 10 points.

It is too bad. It would allow a lot more people to vote.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008:

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The big news from Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the continuing stability of this race. Many observers (and based on its reaction, the McCain campaign itself) have hypothesized that Obama could have the chance of making a major breakthrough in voter sentiment as a result of the streaming video and photos and news coverage of the Illinois senator with U.S. troops, military commanders, and foreign leaders. As of Tuesday night's interviewing, however, this has not materialized.

Perhaps the signal event of Obama's overseas trip will be a forthcoming speech before tens of thousands in Germany later this week. It remains to be seen whether or not news coverage of this speech will alter the support patterns among American voters.

I'm not too sure about "arrogant," basically, because I was quoting your post, IIRC, just expanding the margin either way. 

As for "broken record," some skipping, but not entirely broken.  There was a bit of tightening last week, but not sure it's there this week. It might be ranging up to 1-4 or 2-5 points.

Why are the tracking polls showing a closer race than the one-time polls that have Obama up by 6-7%? Which one's should we trust?

Thursday, July 24, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama's much anticipated overseas trip enters its sixth day, but so far it has not meaningfully affected the choice for president voters would make if the election were held today. Obama has held a modest advantage over McCain for all but a few days (in which the candidates were precisely tied) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

Today, Obama will give what is considered to be the major speech of his trip in Berlin, Germany. McCain was planning to give a major speech of his own today from an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but that had to be canceled due to the after-effects of Hurricane Dolly.

Neither... its July

Truthfully, the tracking polls, simply because they are going to be less subject to bad samples (and the bad samples will exit the actual result over time).

But at this point in the campaign, it's fair enough to believe whatever you want.  :)

Probably close to +2 Obama, same as last week.

Obama Gains Over McCain in Swing States Since June [23 July, 2008]

Gap has moved at least 3 points in his favor in all state groups since June

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-June.aspx

Barack Obama - John McCain Vote Preference in Red, Blue and Purple States

Based on Gallup Poll Daily Tracking March - May

Blue (Democratic) states: Obama 53% (52%); McCain 37% (39%)

Purple (competitive) states: Obama 48% (46%); McCain 40% (44%)

Red (Republican) states: Obama 40% (39%); McCain 50% (52%)

And he's winning Britons, French and Germans by a landslide :P

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109018/Britons-French-Germans-Solidly-Back-Obama.aspx

Dave

I'd agree with your first statement, but, regarding the second statement, if someone "believes" McCain is going to carry the District of Columbia, or Obama will carry Utah, they really need a reality check.

Carl, I have an honest question: Are national polls necessarily more immune from bad samples?  Or do little pockets of weakness (cell-only, non-response, multiple landlines etc.) expose themselves more in a national poll?

Do you mean national as opposed to tracking or national as opposed to state?

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-2)

Obama's current lead matches his lead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling average for July 18-20, Friday through Sunday of last week. A six percentage point lead for Obama, also measured at several other points in July and June, is the highest he has enjoyed since he had a 7-point advantage over McCain in early June (which, in turn, was Obama's largest lead of the campaign).

The key question at this particular point in the campaign concerns the impact, if any, of this unusual week during which Obama conducted his highly-publicized world tour while McCain attempted to grab back part of the media spotlight by conducting domestic events and taking the opportunity to make critical comments about his presumed Democratic opponent.

European residents certainly evince a strong sentiment in favor of Obama winning the U.S. presidency -- much higher than the pro-Obama sentiment here at home. Gallup polling shows that residents of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom by very large margins would rather see Obama win instead of McCain. Residents of the U.S. have been favoring Obama by just about three points. The key is the degree to which the sentiments of European residents might "rub off" on U.S. voters as they have the opportunity to absorb news coverage of Obama's trip.

In a broad sense, there are several ways that Obama's European trip could affect U.S. voters:

1. Obama's trip could end up being the basis for a shift in voter preferences to the point where he pulls into a sustained lead over McCain. This could occur on a delayed basis. It's even possible that Obama's trip, while not having an immediate effect on tracking numbers, could lay the mental groundwork in the minds of voters to the point where they are more open to an Obama presidency at some point in the future (such as the Democratic convention). In particular, this might occur if his trip removes doubts voters might have about his ability to handle international affairs.

2. Voters could simply not pay much attention to the trip, and its net impact could end up being very minor. The data so far this summer have shown little significant movement in voter numbers, suggesting that voters may, to some degree, be tuning out the election coverage regardless of the candidates' efforts to stimulate interest.

3. Voters could pay attention to Obama's trip, but decide that the trip, per se, did not demonstrate anything that would cause a fundamental shift in their voting preferences. While the news media have made a great deal out of the trip, it's conceivable that it may not appear to be significant to the majority of voters.

4. Voters could pay attention to the trip, but shift support away from Obama if they viewed the trip or the way in which Obama conducted himself in a more negative light. Conservative commentators -- and of course the McCain campaign itself -- have certainly been arguing that there are negatives associated with the trip, including a speculation of presumptiveness that a presidential nominee would make a speech more appropriate for an actual president, the criticism that the content of his speeches did not contain anything new, or that the real issues facing the voters are domestic, not international.

The evidence is certainly mixed at this point as to which of these scenarios may end up being closest to reality. Obama's 6-point lead over the past weekend initially suggested that he was perhaps on the cusp of a jump in support as a result of (or at the least coincident with) his trip. But that lead was not sustained, and the Gallup averages reported in the middle of this week have been in and around the average 3-point advantage Obama has maintained for the last month and a half.

Now, on the basis of a strong showing in Thursday night's Gallup interviewing, Obama is back to a 6-point margin over McCain. On Thursday Obama made his highly-anticipated speech to a crowd estimated to be larger than 200,000 in Berlin, Germany, and it is not implausible that it might have affected enough voters to move his overall advantage in the horse race tracking a few points. The drop off in Obama's support earlier this week, however, suggests caution in assuming that the trip will have any lasting impact on the structure of the race.

This means that the jury is still out until the tracking results through the weekend and into next week are monitored carefully. To signify a real difference in the support patterns of voters in the U.S., the data would either need to show a sustained 6-point plus lead for Obama over a number of days, or conversely, a sustained pattern by which John McCain moves into the lead (something he has not done since early June) and sustains that lead.

Previous election year polling shows that the conventions have a high (but not 100%) probability of shaking up the race. The impact of events prior to the conventions is certainly more difficult to pin down. As noted, the structure of the race this year appears to have snapped into place in early June after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic Party's nomination, and it simply has not changed much since. Whether or not it will change at this juncture remains to be seen.

5+ point leads in both tracking polls... :)

Saturday - July 26, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

This represents a continuation of Obama's frontrunner position in Gallup's Friday report, when he led McCain by six points, 47% to 41%. Earlier this week, Obama and McCain were separated by just two to four points, but that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama's foreign tour.

Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Britain may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Notably, Obama's current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously. He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

While Obama may have thus far received a modest bounce from the massive publicity surrounding this week's trip, his ability to sustain or build on that -- as opposed to having it dissipate along with news coverage of the trip --could hinge on how the major U.S. media outlets and conservative vs. liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in the coming days.

Not necessarily.

Also, unrepresentative samples aren't the only, nor the most serious problem.

The thing is that some state polls are really terrible, especially those done by some media outlets.

What I believe you are getting at is that larger sample sizes in most national polls tend to dilute the tendency to badly skewed samples.

Sunday - July 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates.

The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March.

A key question remains as to whether this "bounce" is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist -- the answer to which will become evident in the next several days.

I´d rather have a continuous 5-6% advantage for Obama until Nov. 4 to avoid voters staying at home because they think Obama is a lock. A 5-6% advantage prior to Election Day is also the margin with which Obama could offset a minor Bradley-Effect and still win the election.

It'll be back down to ~5 by Wednesday.

Quote this post on Wednesday to mock me/admire my prescience.

Feel like a clown now?

Feigned conditional outrage!  Feigned conditional outrage!

Weekend polling from Gallup.

*Sigh*

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Oh, absolutely. I just wish Election day wasn't next week!

Does anyone know how former President Dukakis is these days?

He's hanging at the Pool with Former President Dole.

I shudder to think about what that man looks like in a bathing suit. Ick.

Have you seen him lately, he has had enough 'adjustments' done to make Cher blush.

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

Think about it this way: Perhaps mid-week date overstates McCain's lead. How 'bout that?

the election is on a Tuesday

Eh...I don't get if you're trying to make a point.  :P  Mine was that Dukakis was up seventeen points in August 1988. Everyone needs to calm down.

McCain isn't in the lead... just sayin

You need to be more modern in your points.  A simple 2004 reference to "exit poll victory speeches" by the Democrats (such as mypalfish) would've been adequate.

Bar fluctuations from week to week like Mikado said, I think last week was the point in time when the election conclusively, definitively broke for Obama. The ineptitude on show in McCain campaign the past 7 days shows the direction in which this is floating, because it just seems as if McCain's lost the initiative and become a reactionary, instead of the candidate which defines the issues that are to be fought over.

Time will bear me out, but I do think that he's drawn himself into the same sinkhole that Gore and Kerry did, where they're basically relying on a game-changing event to turn this thing around. If Pawlenty comes out grinning today with his arm around McCain it truly is over, the campaign can't afford an unoffensive, insipid choice like that.

Deadpan sarcasm > regular sarcasm

Monday, July 28, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48%. Obama's progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades. At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters. The basic structure of the race so far this summer has been remarkably stable, and it remains to be seen if either candidate can alter it for a sustained period of time before the conventions in late August and early September.

Slight decline in Obama's lead now that Thursday's sample is out of the tracking but this is, of course, the full weekend polling data. It will be interesting to see how things stand Thursday, which will comprise weekday data from Mon thru' Weds

I think today is Monday, July 28.  :)  They are starting to run together.

I would be worried about a weekend sample showing a drop for Obama.  We could see a very big one tomorrow (that really won't mean a heck of a lot).

Corrected ;)


Not too worried. Obama, obviously, had a good Thursday (given his lead jumped from +2 to +6 in Friday's tracking) and it's data has exited from today's tracking

Dave

Gallup says Mc Cain +4 in his USA today/gallup poll (LV). Gallup is a joke. A total joke.

LOL at Gallup putting out two polls with completely different results and lol at summer polling in general. People on both sides should just relax for now. Go see Batman again or something.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 41% (+1)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking showed Obama gaining ground over McCain at the end of last week near the culmination of Obama's highly visible foreign tour. That "bounce" seems to be ebbing now, and the current evidence suggests that Obama has not been able to maintain or expand his 9-point lead as measured in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for July 24-26 -- at least in the short-term.

Obama has generally led McCain by a consistent, but small, margin for much of the summer. There have been the expected daily fluctuations in the size of that margin, including Obama's recent gain, but nothing so far to suggest any lasting disruption in the structure of the race.

Wednesday and Thursday will be the key to Gallup.

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

And if not ;)

I prefer to see the numbers after the weekend numbers are out.  I actually thing Obama might have improved very slightly.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

I'm just hoping McCain taking the low road, going all negative, backfires now. I'm not holding my breath however. McCain can do no wrong ::)!

Dave

No one's paying attention to what McCain's doing, at least not yet.

It has to do with Obama's campaign or Obama himself, as well-organized as they are, sending across the wrong message to that wavering 10%-15% who might be inclined to vote for him outside his base percentage.

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 28-30.

The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe. Gallup tracking showed Obama's lead rising at one point as high as nine percentage points (for the average from last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground since that point.

The race has been very close before, with Obama holding a 1-point lead as recently as July 15-17, and the race tied for several days in late June. The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change.

Obama is walking away with this one.

why do you find this entertaining or humorous?  there are a few partisans who claim obama is going to win easy.  there are a few other more objective analysts who agree.  you yourself claim that summer polling is pretty crummy.  with all that said, you persist each time a poll shows the race tight or tightening to sarcastically comment as if 90% of the board were regularly claiming this won't be a close race.

The impending Obama landslide which will capture Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia is entertaining or humorous to me? Oh, so very far from it.

I think we've had a few here that have said that, at some point.  I've been saying close, and factor out the weekend bump.  Now I'm wondering if there is a mid week bump.

a few, maybe, but if you're going to make the same sarcastic comment over and over and over and over, you better be calling out more than a few people.

We've seen a lot of puffery about Obama, even down to "Obama leading" in several states where his numbers were, in fact, steadily dropping.  It's still happening.

Now, I'm 100% in favor of noting this a close race, with Obama having an edge at this point, but it is not solid.

Obama Retains Strength Among Highly Educated [30 July, 2008]

McCain does best among those with college degrees but no further education

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109156/Obama-Retains-Strength-Among-Highly-Educated.aspx

Preference for the General Election, by Education

High school or less: Obama 46%; McCain 39%

Some college: Obama 47%; McCain 42%

College graduate: Obama 45%; McCain 47%

Postgraduate: Obama 54; McCain 39%

Weekly aggregate of registered voters, July 21-27, 2008

Dave

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

That's not a talking point, it's a competely neutral assessment and in line with previous voting patterns. Republican voting increases with education until you get to graduate school, and then it drops.

That might be job related.

Friday, August 1, 2008:

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided.

The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points. [/quote]

This does not include the weekend numbers, but this is NOT good news for Obama, considering that this was real attempt to breakout.

Over the last coupld of weeks there has been a mild (and slow) thightening of the race.

As tracking polls tended to go up and down on a daily basis, and the changes were over the long term relatively small, it took some time to determine that the tightening was real, and not just "noise,"

As to the reason(s) for the tightening, there are several which are potential factors, but one which seems to pretty definitely be a factor, i.e. the difference in the candidates current position on energy production.

The Senate Democrats seem to largely have understood that the position of opposing increases in energy production is untenable, while Obama and Pelsi are resolution in there determination that Americans lower their standard of living.

How long will it take Obama to realize that he needs to abandon his 'hairshirt' approach to energy production is likely to harm his candidacy, and change his policy?

Either today or tomorrow. we should see the "weekend bump" for Obama, and at some point a lead of 3-4 points.  Anything below that, Obama suffering some moderate to major erosion.

This National numbers don't match up with the state numbers.... I hate summer time.

At this stage, the state numbers might be following the national numbers.

Right now, I'm looking at broad trends.  After the conventions, I'll start focusing on the state polls.

Ah, ok, I think I am just going to wait until Sept to make anymore predictions...

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I guess Obama didn't get his usual bounce from Friday night polling. This is interesting.

I'll wait until tomorrow, but this might be the start of bad news for Obama.

Ouch. No weekend bounce for Obama today.

Perfect

Remember it is still summer and polls aren't going to show the real race until Sept.

Exactly. This is when Obama is supposed to be kicking ass.

Yeah, I remember when Reagan was barely ahead during the Summer of 1980 too. Carter's second term was great.

No he's not, I think its funny, when a poll comes out that shows McCain down by 10%, you say oh its summer time things will change. But when a poll comes out with them tied, you say Oh this poll is race, Obama is going to lose because he is suppose to be up by alot. The fact is alot will change we still don't now the VPs and its Aug. We really wont now the state of the race until Sept/Oct.

Can Conservatives please explain why an all American war hero is losing in the polls to a man with a middle name Hussein?

I'm not a conservative, but I'm also not a total ignoramus, so I can.

When you read for me all of the controversy that surrounds Obama and then do the same for Reagan, I'll concede that that's a good point.


Because our party and the President in the White House who happens to be a member of our party are very unpopular.

Are you telling us that someone with the name "Hussein" should be ahead in the polls because of their name?

Also, the man with the middle name "Hussein" is leading by about a point or two in the polls. Not really a great lead.



Democrats traditonally lead during the summer months, Josh. Plus, it's clear that if Obama is Mr. Frontrunner, he shouldn't be ahead by just a point or two. This is when he should be kicking ass. Almost everyone with a clue agrees.

We won't see much movement until the conventions and then just mini bounces.  I predict the race stays about like it is for the next three weeks. 

We could see a trend to McCain (about where Obama was in early to mid July).  We won't know until tomorrow at the earliest (probably not until Wednesday or Thursday).  Obama may decide it's time to roll out the VP candidate.

What controversy?  I want to know what you are talking about because I really don't know how you came up with that retort.

Whether it's Rev. Wright, Obama's own comments concerning "race" in this race, his inexperience, the fact that he's "too different" for many people, etc.

Reagan didn't have those problems. People threw around that he was an actor and that he was considered far right wing.

Hey, I hate to make you feel that me and Phil are ganging up on you, but - are you really a fan of Garfield?

I don't feel ganged up on.  But yes I' am.  The earliest garfields are the best, the fattest garfield, and the slimmer garfield.  Besides my giant sig, why do you ask?

 I think what goes on in people's lives are what is going to drive them to the polls, and which candidate they feel will address their concerns the best.  Not a controversy ,which Reagan never had to deal with.

 I still think that Obama needs Hillary to pull in all the Democrats and then you will see the bounce that should be attributed to left leaning results in the summertime.

Believe me, Alcon is NOT a conservative!

I enjoyed Garfield, as I had a cat (or more accurately, I was his valet in his opinion) who knew what time it was for me to come home from work, and that I preferred entering through the kitchen, and would get on top of the refrigerator, and pounce on me when I entered.

Oh, and he was an all black cat that I got as a kitten, who named himself (Zorro) by leaving his mark.

I still miss him.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Obama - 45% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

The results reflect a fairly steady pattern of voter sentiment over the last several days, with the two candidates either tied in an absolute sense, or in today's average, statistically tied. As has been the case all summer, the race appears to be settling back into a pattern where Obama has a small margin over McCain. The overall average margin for June and July has been three percentage points in Obama's favor, despite some brief periods of time when Obama led statistically and other times when the race was tied. Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over McCain, and the latter has been unable to break into even a small lead over Obama.

By mid week, if there is no Obama VP announcement, McCain leads.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-1)

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

The Democratic convention is now just three weeks away, while the Republican convention will begin four weeks from today. The conventions are one of the most anticipated events of the election calendar, in part because each candidate typically receives a "bounce" in support in the polls following their official nomination as the party's presidential candidate.

Midweek = Wednesday Right?

Thursday is better.  This includes two weekend numbers.  Obama might drop with just Sunday numbers included, but Thursday is likely for the lead.

Why are Gallup and Rassmussen opposites?  It seems when Rasmussen has Obama ahead Gallup has him tied or really close.  When Gallup goes +3 Rasmussen is -1.

Ah. Here's the Obama weekend bounce J.J. talks so much about.

Yes, that average was based on polling from Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Tomorrow, Friday's numbers will drop off and Mondays will pop in.  If Obama is eroding, we see this drop back a bit, but we won't see anything without the weekend until Thursday.

The VP announcement may change that dynamic.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Voter preferences fluctuated in the time immediately after Obama's much publicized overseas trip. First, Obama's lead stretched to nine points near the conclusion of the trip, only to disappear when McCain moved into a precise tie with Obama near the end of last week. Now, the race seems to have reverted to where it has been for most of the summer, with Obama holding a narrow advantage.

If indeed the race has settled back to "the norm" for the time being, it could represent the calm before the storm. With vice presidential running mate announcements and the party conventions forthcoming in the next several weeks, enough voter preferences could be changed by these events to cause renewed movement in the overall numbers. [/quote]

So far, no indication of weakening, but Monday might just have been less damaging than Friday... Right?

Possibly, though there might have been a good Obama sample in Sunday's  (or even Saturday's poll).  Saturday's numbers will drop out tomorrow and Sunday's numbers will drop out on Thursday.

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Weekend numbers dropping out.

And yet:


Not happening.

We don't have the mid week numbers yet.  Sunday is still in the sample.

My only real question is if Obama gets a weekend bump or if McCain gets a mid-week bump.

Or if Obama suffers a mid-week sag, or if McCain suffers a weekend sag.

What is truth in this situation?

Bingo.  I fully expect McCain to pop up ahead on Thursday or Friday, but I don't expect him to be on Monday.

I think the "truth in this situation," is Obama eroded, maybe 3-4 points and the candidate's numbers will seem to be slow dancing around the others.  The "minuet period" of the campaign?

Independents Remain Split Between Obama and McCain [6 August, 2008]

Overall, the race expanded, slightly, than contracted in recent weeks

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109309/Independents-Remain-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx

Presidential preferences for July 28 - Aug. 3, 2008

Core Consituency Groups for Obama

Blacks: Obama 86%; McCain 5%
Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 12%
Liberals: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
No religious affiliation: Obama 67%; McCain 24%
Hispanics: Obama 57%; McCain 30%
18-to-29-year-olds: Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Moderates: Obama 51%; McCain 35%
Postgraduates: Obama 55%; McCain 39%
Women: Obama 48%; McCain 39%

Core Constituency Groups for McCain

Republicans: McCain 84%; Obama 10%
Conservatives: McCain 68%; Obama 22%
Whites: McCain 51%; Obama 38%
65 years-and-older: McCain 46%; Obama 37%
Men: McCain 48%; Obama 41%
Protestants: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

Competitive Constituency Groups [change on previous week]

Independents: McCain 43% (+4); Obama 40% (-4)
Catholics: McCain 46% (+6); Obama 42% (-7)
30-to-49-year-olds: McCain 46% (+1); Obama 44% (-1)
50-to-64-year-olds: Obama 46% (-2); McCain 43% (+1)
"Some college": Obama 45% (-2); McCain 45% (+3)
College graduates: Obama 45% (nc); McCain 45% (-2)
No College: McCain 44% (+5); Obama 41% (-5)

Dave

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results, based on Aug. 4-6 polling, are essentially the same as Gallup has found all week, and suggest that voter preferences have stabilized for the moment. Near the tail end of Obama's overseas trip his lead expanded to nine points, but in the days following the trip's conclusion McCain erased that lead and moved into a tie with Obama. Since then, Obama has reestablished a modest advantage over McCain.

From a long-term perspective, Obama's 3-point margin is consistent with what he has enjoyed since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

Oh boy, yet another ownage of J. J. by reality! How many does this make it?

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

Obama will probably drop, but pick it up over the weekend.  He has from Monday.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Today's result, based on Aug. 5-7 interviewing, is identical to where the race stood in Thursday's report, and marks the fifth straight day that McCain and Obama have been separated by between two and four points in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll.

It thus appears that Obama has recaptured a slight lead over McCain after essentially falling into a tie with his likely Republican opponent for a short period last week.

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

why?  it will be all weekday numbers, no?

Friday is essentially part of the weekend. People are out doing things.

LOL. You were saying Hillary still had a good shot as late as early JUNE. The second sentence has no basis in reality whatsoever (as she has made absolutely no intentions at all toward doing so.)

But then again, how many post-NH J. J. predictions have come true?

Hillary would come close in South Carolina.
Hillary would destroy Obama on Super Tuesday.
Hillary would come close in Virginia because the independents would all vote for McCain despite that race being over for some inexplicable reason.
Hillary would win or come close in Wisconsin because some imaginary polls showed it "tightening"
Hillary would win Pennsylvania by a strong double digits and a crushing in delegates.
Hillary would win Indiana by a landslide and keep NC in single digits.
Hillary would get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated at full strength with the Michigan delegation exactly as the vote went allowing Hillary to take some uncommitted.

Did I miss any?

You are joking right?  Do you seriously think the Democrats will yank the nomination from the first black nominee at the last minute?  Do you realize how badly this would kill Democrats up and down the ballot in November? 

It's sarcasm. It's mocking J. J.'s delusions about Hillary in the past. He was still insisting Hillary had a good shot after Montana and South Dakota voted!

SC I'm sure about.


I think I said Obama needed a victory to win on Super Tuesday to end the primary.  I'm soooooo glad he ended the primary in January.



Would you care to post the link


That one I'll give you.


She did by double digits, I did think it would be stronger.


"Landslide?"  I think I said she had to keep NC in single digits.


No, I said that Obama needed to resolve it, or it would fester into a problem.  I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.  The damage has been done. 


New Hampshire, mini-Super Tuesday, the primary not being over until June, some potential problems at the convention.  Now, we wait until tomorrow.

Here's a link:


The bolded part..LOLOLOLOLOL! Some of the most extreme idiocy I've ever read.

Hillary's margin of victory in PA = 9.14 points. Less than double digits. Hillary's margin of delegates in Pennsylvania = far less than the 20 something J. J. predicted.

NC:



No, you said flat out that both states would have delegations seated and Obama would just have to "grab as many of the uncommited as he could" in Michigan. The uncomitted were a complete moot issue in Michigan it turned out.


As if your suggestions have any bearing whatsoever on the results. ::)


You are illiterate. I'd point out the part of my post that excludes this but anyone of inteligence above third grade should be able to find it out.


Same prediction as me. At least I wasn't saying in early June Obama was "possibly" the nominee.


"Potential" blah blah blah. Please point to me any remote indicator that all of Hillary's delegates are planning to walk out of the convention which you claim is some very likely event (or the fact that Hillary plans on doing anything at the convention other than hold a vote that she loses. Hillary's delegates vote for Hillary, Obama's delegates vote for Obama. Wow, what a huge fucking problem.)

No that is an answer to your question: "Re: Can anyone explain what a Hillary victory in Virginia would look like? "

I'll give you PA and NC, but no "landslide" in IN.



No BRTD, I said he should resolve it, then he wouldn't be facing the complains over it.  What he faced the charges of a "coup" and a "stolen" nomination.  I don't think either charge is accurate, but they have happened and the Democratic party has been divided.  It may not heal in time for the election.


I was looking at a way to end the process well before June


Yes, it is huge if 30-45% of the Democratic delegates say they don't want the nominee.  It's huge from a PR standpoint.  It happened to the Democrats in 1980, the Republicans to a lesser extent in 1976, and to a greater extent in 1964.  Really the only postwar one where a divided party elected a president was 1948.

I doubt if this will be 1964, but something between 1976 (R) and 1980 (D) is a possibility.  We'll see how it plays out in a few week, but it did play out during the past week.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (-1))

These results are based on a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted Aug. 6-8, with Gallup polling roughly 900 registered voters nationwide each night. The nightly numbers for each of these nights have been similar, suggesting preferences are stable.

Generally speaking, the structure of the race remains as it has been since early June, with Obama holding a modest advantage over McCain.

Obama has begun a weeklong vacation in Hawaii. It is unclear what impact his absence from the campaign trail will have. On one hand, the country's attention may be consumed by the Olympic games and the candidates might not get much attention anyway. On the other hand, to the extent voters are tuned into politics, McCain will have the stage to himself.

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday constitutes the weekend.

You're kinda underestimating the potential for static here, too.  Obama may do 1-3 points better on a weekend, but either candidate may do 1-3 points better randomly too.

If Obama is actually up +2 (which is my own personal guess - 1.5 to 2, it's what the state poll average says too), then Obama +5 is within the MOE of these tracking polls, and quite frankly, so is McCain +1.

Also, what Alcon said - and you have to into account that bad samples may occur.

However, if there is actual movement back to Obama, it will become apparent, you just have to give it time to make sure that what appears like movement isn't just a bad sample or a mirage bounce (like the European trip).  It's kind of like a waiting game.

I'm also thinking that there might be something with the sample methods.  Maybe over representing McCain midweek, or over representing Obama on the weekends.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama is on vacation in Hawaii, and while McCain continues to make campaign appearances, many Americans are watching the Olympics and presumably not focused heavily on the presidential campaign at this time. Indeed, the current three percentage point Obama advantage is right at the average gap Gallup Poll Daily tracking has measured all summer so far.

The one political news story attracting significant attention over the last two days has been former Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards' public confession that he had an extramarital affair. Given the remarkable stability of the presidential race this summer so far, it is unlikely that the Edwards situation will have any impact on voters' preferences for Obama or McCain. The most reasonable hypothesis is that the next potential opportunity for substantial change in voter preferences will come with the vice-presidential announcements and the back-to-back Democratic and Republican conventions.

Hmm, I must say I am baffled how his lead didn't grow with Saturday polling included.

Because, for the second time, you are ignoring natural volatility/bad sampling, and assuming that this is a flat-lined race with Obama spikes on weekends.  Also, consider rounding; it's possible, maybe likely (tendency toward the mean) that the previous result was a "weak" +5.

There may have been a higher than normal sample for Obama midweek?